Local values for fairer adaptation to sea-level rise: A typology of residents and their lived values in Lakes Entrance,Australia

Understanding the values and socio-economic characteristics of people at risk from climate change will inform how people feel about the likely distribution of impacts, as well as adaptation responses. This knowledge is necessary if adaptation is to achieve distributive fairness now and into the future. This study advances methods and analyses used in values-based adaptation research by using segmentation to explain the diversity of values that exist within a community, and on this basis identify particular groups at risk. A telephone survey was conducted with residents of Lakes Entrance, Australia—a coastal community already adapting to projected sea-level rise. The purpose was to determine the priorities residents place on a range of lived values—valuations that individuals make about what is important in their lives and the places they live. The telephone survey data was then analysed using cluster analysis to develop a lived values typology of residents. The analysis revealed that there are at least eight types of residents living in Lakes Entrance and that each group of residents has a unique set of lived values that will be differentially affected by sea-level rise and adaptation. The findings indicate that if sea-level rise adaptation policy is to be distributively fair it needs to develop a suite of adaptation responses that ensure that the lived values of each group of residents, and thus a diversity of values, are maintained or enhanced.     

Who remembers a hot summer or a cold winter? The asymmetric effect of beliefs about global warming on perceptions of local climate conditions in the U.S.

This paper explores the phenomenon of local climate perception and the extent to which public perceptions match climate conditions as recorded in instrumental climate data. We further examine whether perceptions of changes in local climates are influenced by prior beliefs about global warming, through the process of motivated reasoning. Using national survey data collected in the United States in 2011, we find that subjective experiences of seasonal average temperature and precipitation during the previous winter and summer were related to recorded conditions during each season. Beliefs about global warming also had significant effects on subjective experiences with above-normal temperatures, particularly among those who believed that global warming is not happening. When asked about the summer of 2010, those who believed that global warming is not happening were significantly less likely to report that they had experienced a warmer-than-normal summer, even when controlling for demographics and local climate conditions. These results suggest that the subjective experience of local climate change is dependent not only on external climate conditions, but also on individual beliefs, with perceptions apparently biased by prior beliefs about global warming.     

Identifying thresholds and barriers to adaptation through measuring climate sensitivity and capacity to change in an Australian primary industry

Primary producers, including graziers, crop farmers and commercial fishers are especially vulnerable to climate change because they depend on highly climate-sensitive natural resources. Adaptation to climate change will make a major difference to the severity of the impacts experienced. However, individuals (resource users) can erect sometimes seemingly peculiar barriers to potential adaptation options that need to be addressed if adaptation is to be effective. Our aim was to understand the nature of barriers to change for cattle graziers in the northern Australian rangelands. We conceptualised barriers as adverse reactions where resource users are unlikely to contemplate adaptations that threaten core values or perceptions about themselves. We assumed that resource users that were more sensitive to climate change impacts—or more dependent on the resource—were more proximate to thresholds of coping and thus more likely to erect barriers, especially people with little adaptive capacity. Given that climate sensitivity and adaptive capacity are important components of vulnerability, our approach was to conduct a vulnerability assessment to identify potential but important barriers to change. Data from 240 graziers suggest that graziers in northern Australia might be especially vulnerable to climate change because their identity, place attachment, low employability, weak networks and dependents can make them sensitive to change, and their sensitivity can be compounded by a low adaptive capacity. We argue that greater attention needs to be placed on the social context of climate change impacts and on the processes shaping vulnerability and adaptation, especially at the scale of the individual.     

Trade-offs between physical risk and economic reward affect fishers’ vulnerability to changing storminess

Climate change-driven alterations in storm frequency and intensity threaten the wellbeing of billions of people who depend on fisheries for food security and livelihoods. Weather conditions shape vulnerability to both loss of life and reduced fishing opportunities through their influence on fishers' daily participation decisions. The trade-off between physical risk at sea and the economic rewards of continued fishing under adverse weather conditions is a critical component of fishers’ trip decisions but is poorly understood. We employed a stated choice experiment with skippers from a temperate mixed-species fishery in southwest England to empirically assess how fishers trade off the risks from greater wind speed and wave height with the benefits of expected catch and prices. Technical fishing and socio-economic data were collected for individual fishers to identify the factors influencing trade-off decisions. Fishers preferred increased wind speed and wave height up to a threshold, after which they became increasingly averse to worsening conditions. Fishing gear, vessel length, presence of crew, vessel ownership, age, recent fishing success and reliance on fishing income all influenced the skippers’ decisions to go to sea. This study provides a first insight into the socio-economic, environmental, and technical fishing factors that can influence the sensitivity of individual fishers to changing storminess. These insights can help to inform fisheries climate vulnerability assessments and the development of adaptation measures.     

A history of climate change: Inughuit responses to changing ice conditions in North-West Greenland

This article presents a small community of High Arctic hunters (the Inughuit in North West Greenland) who have always had to negotiate climatic changes with great impact on their living conditions. This points us toward the natural-social entanglements implied in the notion of the Anthropocene, and to the new intellectual challenges that both natural and social scientists are facing in relation to the current climatic changes. These challenges are discussed through the case of the Inughuit with whom the author has worked over many years. Departing from their dire situation in the 19th century, when they were first described and became known to outsiders, it is shown how flexibility and mobility were always preconditions for survival in this environment. Then, they were trapped in too much ice, while now they have to negotiate a rapidly melting environment. In both cases their response is deeply implicated in their sense of who they were and are, also in relation to a larger world.     

Fulfilling the promise of participation by not resuscitating the deficit model

'Participation with publics' has been embraced in both government and academic literatures as a necessary but currently unrealized means of governing socio-environmental challenges. This near-universal embrace carries global significance. Long-standing efforts in the context of disaster risk reduction (DRR) provide an opportunity to consider how experts have positioned participation such that it can only fail to empower publics. Using interviews with risk managers, we demonstrate that they impose boundaries on participation via application of a deficit model (DM). Despite continuous calls to make governance more participatory, we explore how the boundaries imposed on participation persist because of how experts are expected to do risk management, and how experts understand their occupations. As a result, meaningful publics-experts interactions are bounded into impossibility. Following demonstration of the DM as the essence of how experts conceive experts-publics interactions, using experts' own suggestions for improving risk reduction, we suggest relationship building as a way of reinvigorating participation. We explore how disaster risk reduction grounded in relationships could overcome existing boundaries, offering an easily-applied reconceptualization for differentiating meaningful from superficial participation, as well as a viable alternative to prevailing participatory methods. Given the intransigence of countless socio-environmental challenges and the need for improved interactions amongst experts-publics, the findings offer a novel pathway that may open an avenue to realizing the promise of participation.     

Adapting and coping with climate change in temperate forests

A growing body of research documents how individuals respond to local impacts of global climate change and a range of policy efforts aim to help individuals reduce their exposure and improve their livelihoods despite these stressors. Yet there is still limited understanding of how to determine whether and how adaptation is occurring. Through qualitative analysis of focus group interviews, I evaluated individual behavioral responses to local forest stressors that can arguably be linked to global climate change among landowners in the Upper Midwest, USA. I found that landowner responses were planned as well as autonomous, more proactive than reactive, incremental rather than transformational, and aimed at being resilient to change and transitioning to new conditions, rather than resisting change alone. Many of the landowners’ responses can be considered forms of adaptation, rather than coping, because they were aimed at moderating and avoiding harm on long time horizons in anticipation of change. These findings stand in contrast to the short-term, reactive, and incremental responses that current socio-psychological theories of adaptation suggest are more typical at the individual level. This study contributes to scientific understanding of how to evaluate behavioral adaptation to climate change and differentiate it from coping, which is necessary for developing conceptually rigorous analytical frameworks to guide research and policy.     

Understanding technological,cultural, and environmental motivators explaining the adoption of citizen science apps for coastal environment monitoring

Environmental and nature conservation authorities are calling for a collective effort to break or reduce the current cycle of environmental degradation. Much of the response depends on scientific knowledge production based on thematically and geographically comprehensive datasets. Citizen science (CS) is a cost-effective support tool for scientific research that provides means for building large and comprehensive datasets and promoting public awareness and participation. One of the greatest challenges of CS is to engage citizens and retain participants in the project. Our work addresses this challenge by (1) defining the role that technological, cultural, and environmental dimensions play in the adoption of CS apps for coastal environment monitoring, and (2) providing base knowledge about the profile of the apps’ most likely users and the functional features they require to be successful. Collectivists and people who assume a green identity are the most likely users of these apps. Drivers of their use are the promotion of citizen empowerment, habit development, provision of facilitating conditions, and proof of environmental performance.The outcome of this study is a set of guidelines for project managers, app developers, and policymakers for citizens’ engagement and retention in CS coastal environment monitoring projects through their apps.     

Should I stay or should I go? Factors in household decisions for or against relocation from a flood risk area

Planned relocation may permanently reduce exposure to natural hazards; however, residents in designated relocation zones are confronted with a broad array of challenges and face profound changes in their everyday lives. The present study empirically illustrates how economic, emotional, risk and social dimensions underpin household decisions to accept or decline a home buyout offer in a voluntary relocation program in the Eferding Basin, Austria. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 79 households living in the relocation zone, transcribed and subjected to qualitative content analysis.Risk appraisal and financial feasibility of moving to a new home function as entry points to the decision process. Risk perception is strongly influenced by biographical experiences, traumatic memories, and personal resources to cope with a flood event. Economic reasons are judged in the light of the children's future prospects. Fear and uncertainty about future floods as well as a personal bond to the place are critical emotional factors. By contrast, social relationships play a marginal role because those who leave tend to resettle close-by, and because solitude and autonomy are valued higher than neighborhood networks. Status as a long-term resident, newcomer or elderly person shifts the importance of specific factors, for instance, self-efficacy beliefs or intergenerational considerations.In order to facilitate relocation program implementation, compensation payments should be complemented by communication efforts addressing the emotional and risk dimensions. Communication activities should address those who leave as well as to those who stay and should be tailored to individual needs and resources of residents.     

Climate shocks and political violence

The dominant discourse on the security implications of climate change has asserted that acute environmental scarcity—such as that caused by drought—causes political violence. In contrast, we argue that there are good reasons why water scarcity might have a pacifying effect on armed conflict, and that political violence should be more prevalent during periods of comparatively better agro-climatic conditions. Political violence is more prevalent when basic needs are met and when the tactical environment is more conducive to attacks—conditions that hold when water is comparatively abundant. Empirically, this paper explores the relationship between environmental scarcity and political violence in a global sample of countries, 1970–2006. We find that water abundance is positively correlated with political violence, and that this relationship is stronger in less developed, more agriculturally dependent societies. These findings are robust to several different operationalizations of our variables. We conclude with a brief discussion of the policy implications of our findings.     

Why do conflicts over scarce renewable resources turn violent? A qualitative comparative analysis

This study addresses the question why intergroup conflicts over scarce, renewable resources in peripheral areas of the global South escalate into violence. In order to do so, twenty cases of such conflicts, seven of which turned violent, are analyzed. The method of fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis is used in order to bridge the gap between quantitative and qualitative accounts in the field and to detect patterns of conjunctural causation. In theoretical terms, structural conditions (negative othering and high power differences between the conflict parties) and triggering conditions (external resource appropriation and recent political change) of a violent escalation of renewable resource conflicts are distinguished. The empirical results as well as various robustness checks and comparisons with individual cases suggest that the simultaneous presence of negative othering, low power differences and recent political change is a sufficient condition for the violent escalation of conflicts over scarce renewable resources. I conclude that research on socio-environmental conflicts should pay more attention to conjunctural causation, local power differences and qualitatively different forms of conflict and political change.     

Citizen preferences on private-public co-regulation in environmental governance: Evidence from Switzerland

Environmental policy is touching on ever more aspects of corporate and individual behavior, and there is much debate over what combinations of top-down (government-imposed) and bottom-up (voluntary private sector) measures to use. In democratic societies, citizens’ preferences over such combinations are crucial because they shape the political mandates based on which policymakers act. We argue that policy designs that involve private-public co-regulation receive more citizen support if they are based on inclusive decision-making, use strong transparency and monitoring mechanisms, and include a trigger for government intervention in case of ineffectiveness. Survey experiments in Switzerland (N = 1941) provide strong support for these arguments. Our research demonstrates that differences in co-regulation design have major implications for public support. Another key finding is that there seems to be a contradiction between inclusiveness and democratic accountability for policy outcomes. The findings are surprisingly consistent across two very different green economy issues we focus on empirically (decarbonization of finance, pesticides). This suggests that our study design offers a useful template for research that explores public opinion on green economy policy designs for other issues and in other countries.     

The Gaia Hypothesis: Fact, Theory, and Wishful Thinking

Organisms can greatly affect their environments, and the feedback coupling between organisms and their environments can shape the evolution of both. Beyond these generally accepted facts, the Gaia hypothesis advances three central propositions: (1) that biologically mediated feedbacks contribute to environmental homeostasis, (2) that they make the environment more suitable for life, and (3) that such feedbacks should arise by Darwinian natural selection. These three propositions do not fare well under close scrutiny. (1) Biologically mediated feedbacks are not intrinsically homeostatic. Many of the biological mechanisms that affect global climate are destabilizing, and it is likely that the net effect of biological feedbacks will be to amplify, not dampen, global warming. (2) Nor do biologically mediated feedbacks necessarily enhance the environment, although it will often appear as if this were the case, simply because natural selection will favor organisms that do well in their environments – which means doing wellunder the conditions that they and their co-occurring species have created. (3) Finally, Gaian feedbacks can evolve by natural selection, but so can anti-Gaian feedbacks. Daisyworld models evolve Gaian feedback because they assume that any trait that improves the environment will also give a reproductive advantage to its carriers (over other organisms that share the same environment). In the real world, by contrast, natural selection favors any trait that gives its carriers a reproductive advantage over its non-carriers, whether it improves or degrades the environment (and thereby benefits or hinders its carriers and non-carriers alike). Thus Gaian and anti-Gaian feedbacks are both likely to evolve.     

Environmental conflicts and defenders: A global overview

Recent research and policies recognize the importance of environmental defenders for global sustainability and emphasize their need for protection against violence and repression. However, effective support may benefit from a more systematic understanding of the underlying environmental conflicts, as well as from better knowledge on the factors that enable environmental defenders to mobilize successfully. We have created the global Environmental Justice Atlas to address this knowledge gap. Here we present a large-n analysis of 2743 cases that sheds light on the characteristics of environmental conflicts and the environmental defenders involved, as well as on successful mobilization strategies. We find that bottom-up mobilizations for more sustainable and socially just uses of the environment occur worldwide across all income groups, testifying to the global existence of various forms of grassroots environmentalism as a promising force for sustainability. Environmental defenders are frequently members of vulnerable groups who employ largely non-violent protest forms. In 11% of cases globally, they contributed to halt environmentally destructive and socially conflictive projects, defending the environment and livelihoods. Combining strategies of preventive mobilization, protest diversification and litigation can increase this success rate significantly to up to 27%. However, defenders face globally also high rates of criminalization (20% of cases), physical violence (18%), and assassinations (13%), which significantly increase when Indigenous people are involved. Our results call for targeted actions to enhance the conditions enabling successful mobilizations, and for specific support for Indigenous environmental defenders.     

Small-scale forest carbon projects: Adapting CDM to low-income communities

Given the decision to include small-scale sinks projects implemented by low-income communities in the clean development mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol, the paper explores some of the basic governance conditions that such carbon forestry projects will have to meet if they are to be successfully put in practice. To date there are no validated small-scale sinks projects and investors have shown little interest in financing such projects, possibly to due to the risks and uncertainties associated with sinks projects. Some suggest however, that carbon has the potential to become a serious commodity on the world market, thus governance over ownership, rights and responsibilities merit discussion. Drawing on the interdisciplinary development, as well as from the literature on livelihoods and democratic decentralization in forestry, the paper explores how to adapt forest carbon projects to the realities encountered in the local context. It also highlights the importance of capitalizing on synergies with other rural development strategies, ensuring stakeholder participation by working with accountable, representative local organizations, and creating flexible and adaptive project designs.     

Socioeconomic geography of climate change views in Europe

Climate change views have their socioeconomic foundations but also specific geographies. In merging these perspectives, this analysis uses ESS Round 8 data from 23 European countries to examine whether climate change scepticism and concern, pro-environmental personal norm and a willingness to engage in energy-saving behaviour exhibit, first, urban–rural and/or regional differences, and second, if these attitudes can be explained at individual level by socioeconomic position and wellbeing resources. We find that climate change scepticism and concern do exhibit urban–rural differences, where living in a country village is associated with greater climate scepticism and lower concern compared to living in a big city. Also, higher climate change concern and pro-environmental norms are associated with living in a region with constant population growth. These geographical differences are independent of individual-level socioeconomic attributes as well as one’s political orientation. Additionally, the results show that both climate change attitudes and reporting energy-saving behaviour are strongly stratified by level of education and reveal that those in lower income deciles feel less pro-environmental norm but nonetheless report greater engagement with energy-saving behaviour. In sum, the results highlight that climate change mitigation is not a uniform project either spatially or within certain socioeconomic strata. Hence, our results suggest that socioeconomic disadvantage (belonging to the lowest education and income levels) and spatial marginalisation (living in more rural surroundings and declining regions) should be better acknowledged when reworking climate change and environmental policies in the EU.     

Voices of young biosphere stewards on the strengths,weaknesses, and ways forward for 74 UNESCO Biosphere Reserves across 83 countries

Young stakeholders are key actors in social-ecological systems, who have the capacity to be agents of sustainability transformation but are also at high risk of exclusion in the unfolding of global change challenges. Despite the focus of sustainability on future generations, there has been little research effort aimed at understanding young actors’ roles as biosphere stewards. In this work we investigate how young stakeholders perceive and participate in the implementation of sustainability objectives in 74 Biosphere Reserves of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization’s (UNESCO) the Man and the Biosphere (MAB) Programme across 83 countries, through participatory group workshops, individual surveys and grey literature review. We explore to what extent youth perceptions are aligned or not with current understandings of Biosphere Reserves and how young stakeholders are acting in pursuit of Biosphere Reserve objectives. We find that young stakeholders have a comprehensive understanding of the opportunities and challenges faced by environmental governance, such as resilience and adaptation to global change and the governance challenges of implementing adaptive co-management and increasing stakeholder participation. We also show that young stakeholders can be active participants in a wide range of activities that contribute to achieving conservation and development goals in their territories. They are particularly concerned with youth participation within all levels of Biosphere Reserve functioning and with the creation of sustainable livelihood opportunities that will allow future generations to remain in their native territories. Our study provides evidence of the importance of young stakeholder knowledge and perspectives as central actors in conservation and development initiatives, like Biosphere Reserves, and of the need to increase young stakeholder integration and participation within environmental governance.     

Living with limits: growth,resources, and climate change

Is it possible for all of humanity to enjoy the standards of living of today's high-income countries? What would happen if these limits were reached, perhaps because of climate change or a shortage of natural resources essential to production? How would society manage – or fail to manage – such limits? Notwithstanding the current financial and economic crises, these are perhaps the biggest questions confronting our species (and of a host of other species, who are the victims of our decisions). The article begins by considering the biggest economic event of our lifetimes – the ‘great convergence’ and its implications for the demand for resources. The discussion then turns to a specific limit on our development, climate change, which is different from most other limits, because it involves a global public good: the atmosphere. What such limits might mean for our civilization is discussed. One can persuade people to tackle climate change only if those concerned with the dangers persuade ordinary people that action will not come at the expense of their prosperity.     

A three-tiered approach to participatory vulnerability assessment in the Solomon Islands

Greater recognition of the seriousness of global environmental change has led to an increase in research that assesses the vulnerability of households, communities and regions to changing environmental or economic conditions. So far, however, there has been relatively little attention given to how assessments can be conducted in ways that help build capacity for local communities to understand and find their own solutions to their problems. This paper reports on an approach that was designed and used to work with a local grass roots organization in the Solomon Islands to promote inclusivity and participation in decision-making and to build the capacity of the organization to reduce the vulnerability of communities to drivers of change. The process involved working collaboratively with the organization and training its members to conduct vulnerability assessments with communities using participatory and deliberative methods. To make best use of the learning opportunities provided by the research process, specific periods for formal reflection were incorporated for the three key stakeholders involved: the primary researchers; research assistants; and community members. Overall, the approach: (1) promoted learning about the current situation in Kahua and encouraged deeper analysis of problems; (2) built capacity for communities to manage the challenges they were facing; and (3) fostered local ownership and responsibility for problems and set precedents for future participation in decision-making. While the local organization and the communities it serves still face significant challenges, the research approach set the scene for greater local participation and effort to maintain and enhance livelihoods and wellbeing. The outcomes highlight the need for greater emphasis on embedding participatory approaches in vulnerability assessments for communities to benefit fully from the process.     

Drivers and dimensions of flood risk perceptions: Revealing an implicit selection bias and lessons for communication policies

Flood damages have increased in many regions around the world, and they are expected to continue to rise in the future due to climate change. To reverse this trend, awareness of flood risk among the population is required to support flood risk management policies and improve flood preparedness. However, empirical studies on the drivers of flood risk perceptions conducted thus far have reported mixed and contradictory results. The aim of this study is to provide insights into the factors that influence perceptions of various dimensions of flood risk to draw lessons to guide flood risk communication strategies. We test a variety of hypotheses of possible factors of influence on flood risk perceptions that are motivated by theoretical concepts and previous empirical studies, whilst also controlling for socio-demographic variables. A representative sample of 2,976 residents answered our survey assessing the role that past flood experiences and risk communication play in shaping flood risk perceptions. Besides exploring flood risk perceptions more robustly, this large sample also facilitates the systematic study of ‘don’t know’ answers, which are often dismissed as missing data in many studies. Rather in this study we analyze what ‘don’t know’ answers reflect in terms of knowledge about particular dimensions of flood risk. The study finds that older people, as well as those who have higher levels of income and education, are significantly more likely to express their flood risk perceptions, respondents who are unable to answer the questions on flood risk perceptions face a lower flood risk, report to have been living in their neighbourhood for a shorter period of time and have less first-hand flood experience. Previous studies might thus be biased by an implicit selection effect. Finally, we show that findings are highly dependent on other explicit choices made by researchers, including the apparently self-fulfilling impact of selecting one explanatory framework over another. New insights emerge from the role that information campaigns and social vulnerability play in the ability to answer the questions. Based on our findings, we offer recommendations for improving flood risk communication policies, specifically increasing the frequency of communication, ensuring that campaigns are focused in terms of the content they provide and the subgroups of the population they target.