Risk assessment of groundwater pollution using sensitivity analysis and a worst-case scenario analysis

This paper illustrates how sensitivity analysis and a worst-case scenario analysis can be useful tools in risk assessment of groundwater pollution. The approach is applied to a study area in Hungary with several known groundwater pollution sources and nearby drinking water production wells. The main concern is whether the contamination sources threaten the drinking water wells of the area. A groundwater flow and transport model is set up to answer this question. Due to limited data availability, the results of this model are associated with large uncertainty. Sensitivity analysis and a worst-case scenario analysis are applied to estimate this uncertainty and build confidence in the model results.     

Modeling coupled unsaturated and saturated nitrate distribution of the aquifer Westliches Leibnitzer Feld, Austria

The aquifer Westliches Leibnitzer Feld, Austria, is a significant resource for regional and supraregional drinking water supply for more than 100,000 inhabitants, but the region also provides excellent agricultural conditions. This dual use implicates conflicts (e.g., non-point source groundwater pollution by nitrogen leaching), which have to be harmonized for a sustainable coexistence. At the aquifer scale, numerical models are state-of-the-art tools to simulate the behavior of groundwater quantity and quality and serve as decision support system for implementing groundwater protecting measures. While fully and iteratively coupled simulation models consider feedback between the saturated and unsaturated zone, sandy soil conditions and groundwater depths beneath the root zone allow the use of a unidirectional sequential coupling of the unsaturated water flow and nitrate transport model SIMWASER/STOTRASIM with FEFLOW for the investigation area. Considering separated inputs of water and nitrogen into groundwater out of surface water bodies, agricultural, residential and forested areas, first simulation results match observed groundwater tables, but underestimate nitrate concentrations in general. Thus, multiple scenarios assuming higher nitrogen inputs at the surface are simulated to converge with measured nitrate concentrations. Preliminary results indicate that N-input into the groundwater is strongly dominated by contributions of agricultural land.     

Simulation of nitrate transport and wastewater seepage in groundwater flow system

Groundwater quantity and quality modeling is one approach for optimal use of available water resources in arid and semiarid regions. This study was conducted to simulate flow treatment and nitrate transport on Shahrekord aquifer using three-dimensional solute transport model and geographical information system. Hydraulic conductivity, specific yield and recharge values in flow simulation process and effect molecular diffusion coefficient, longitudinal dispersivity and distribution coefficient in quality model were calibrated. 120 water samples during July 2007 to June 2008 were collected monthly from 10 wells and measurements of nitrate were carried out. The results show that the developed model is successfully used to simulate flow path and nitrate transport in saturated porous media. The highest values of nitrate occur along Bahram–Abad village and the surroundings. The groundwater quality in the area represents a complex system, which is affected by different factors of pollution, such as urban wastewater and leaching of agricultural lands.     

Groundwater deterioration in Nankou—a suburban area of Beijing: data assessment and remediation scenarios

Since the 1980s, high-nitrate concentration in one of the groundwater sampling wells at the Nankou site, northwest of the Beijing Plain, has become a major concern for the local water authority. In a previous study (Sun et?al. in Environ Earth Sci 64(5):1323?C1333, 2011), a hydrogeological structural model was developed based on the borehole logs of this area and the steady, as well as transient groundwater-flow models, were calibrated using the measured hydraulic heads. In this paper, the potential pollution sources in this area are investigated. The chemical analysis of the groundwater is also presented. The results demonstrate that the most likely pollution source is the untreated wastewater discharge from a nearby fertilizer factory. Furthermore, a mass transport model is developed to reproduce the nitrate transport process in the aquifer at the Nankou site under different pollution sources, i.e., a fertilizer factory, river with wastewater and an agriculture field. The combined effects of the river and agriculture fields present a better understanding of the nitrate transport in the local aquifer. In addition, a pumping scenario is designed to clean up the current nitrate concentration. The pumping rate and the well location are first estimated with 2-D analytical solutions of the type curves method. Then a 3-D numerical model is used to calculate the nitrate-concentration changes after the pumping activities start. In the downstream direction of the regional groundwater flow, three pumping wells are set up for the clean-up strategy. The calculated pumping rate in each well is about 1,500 m³/day. After 1?year, the nitrate concentration in the observation well recedes to 68?mg/l from the initial value of 72.9?mg/l, and it will be lower than the limitation value (20?mg/l) after 5,400 days of groundwater extraction. The data assessment and clean-up scenarios reported in this paper are fundamental for the contaminated aquifer management in the future.     

A predictive modeling approach to assessing the groundwater pollution susceptibility of the Paluxy Aquifer, Central Texas, using a Geographic Information System

The Paluxy aquifer in north-central Texas is composed primarily of Lower Cretaceous clastics. This aquifer provides water for both domestic and agricultural purposes in the region. The study area for this investigation incorporates the outcrop and recharge areas, as well as the confined and unconfined portions of the aquifer. The purpose of this investigation is to develop a predictive modeling approach for evaluating the susceptibility of groundwater in the Paluxy aquifer to contamination, and then compare this susceptibility evaluation to water-chemistry data collected from wells completed within the aquifer. Using such an approach allows one to investigate the potential for groundwater contamination on a regional, rather than site-specific scale. Based on data from variables such as land use/land cover, soil permeability, depth to water, aquifer hydraulic conductivity and topography, subjective numerical weightings have been assigned according to each variables' relative importance in groundwater pollution susceptibility. The weights for each variable comprise a Geographic Information System (GIS) map layer. These map layers are combined to formulate the final pollution susceptibility map. Using this method of investigation, the pollution susceptibility map classifies 32% of the study area as having low pollution susceptibility, 41% as having moderate pollution susceptibility, 25% as having high pollution susceptibility, and 2% as having very high pollution susceptibility. When comparing these modeling results with water-chemistry data from wells within the Paluxy aquifer, the four wells with the highest concentration of nitrate contamination are all found within regions of very high pollution potential. This confirms the accuracy and usefulness of the predictive modeling approach for assessing aquifer pollution susceptibility. Received: 1 June 1999 · Accepted: 30 August 1999     

Temporal trends in concentrations of DBCP and nitrate in groundwater in the eastern San Joaquin Valley,California, USA

Temporal monitoring of the pesticide 1,2-dibromo-3-chloropropane (DBCP) and nitrate and indicators of mean groundwater age were used to evaluate the transport and fate of agricultural chemicals in groundwater and to predict the long-term effects in the regional aquifer system in the eastern San Joaquin Valley, California. Twenty monitoring wells were installed on a transect along an approximate groundwater flow path. Concentrations of DBCP and nitrate in the wells were compared to concentrations in regional areal monitoring networks. DBCP persists at concentrations above the US Environmental Protection Agency’s maximum contaminant level (MCL) at depths of nearly 40 m below the water table, more than 25 years after it was banned. Nitrate concentrations above the MCL reached depths of more than 20 m below the water table. Because of the intensive pumping and irrigation recharge, vertical flow paths are dominant. High concentrations (above MCLs) in the shallow part of the regional aquifer system will likely move deeper in the system, affecting both domestic and public-supply wells. The large fraction of old water (unaffected by agricultural chemicals) in deep monitoring wells suggests that it could take decades for concentrations to reach MCLs in deep, long-screened public-supply wells, however.     

Pollutant transport in a shallow unconfined aquifer in Perry,Ohio

The groundwater system in northern Perry Township in Lake County, Ohio, is a shallow, unconfined aquifer consisting of periglacial lake beach deposits and less permeable lacustrine plain deposits. Groundwater flow is generally toward Lake Erie from south to north and is controlled by the top of the Ashtabula Till, but strong, local variations are caused by northward flowing streams During the study period, water levels in most wells exhibited a seasonal fluctuation of less than 0 3 m from their mean values. The areal distributions of chloride and nitrate concentrations indicate that road salt runoff easily infiltrates the aquifer and that nitrate may be sourced from fertilizer application. Ground-water flow and solute transport models indicate that in excess of 27 years are required to obtain chemical steady-state under hydrologic steady-state conditions. The simulations also demonstrate that nitrate loading must occur in more than one cultivated field in order to obtain the observed wide-spread nitrate distribution.     

Prediction of agriculture derived groundwater nitrate distribution in North China Plain with GIS-based BPNN

In recent years, nitrate contamination of groundwater has become a growing concern for people in rural areas in North China Plain (NCP) where groundwater is used as drinking water. The objective of this study was to simulate agriculture derived groundwater nitrate pollution patterns with artificial neural network (ANN), which has been proved to be an effective tool for prediction in many branches of hydrology when data are not sufficient to understand the physical process of the systems but relative accurate predictions is needed. In our study, a back propagation neural network (BPNN) was developed to simulate spatial distribution of NO₃-N concentrations in groundwater with land use information and site-specific hydrogeological properties in Huantai County, a typical agriculture dominated region of NCP. Geographic information system (GIS) tools were used in preparing and processing input–output vectors data for the BPNN. The circular buffer zones centered on the sampling wells were designated so as to consider the nitrate contamination of groundwater due to neighboring field. The result showed that the GIS-based BPNN simulated groundwater NO₃-N concentration efficiently and captured the general trend of groundwater nitrate pollution patterns. The optimal result was obtained with a learning rate of 0.02, a 4-7-1 architecture and a buffer zone radius of 400 m. Nitrogen budget combined with GIS-based BPNN can serve as a cost-effective tool for prediction and management of groundwater nitrate pollution in an agriculture dominated regions in North China Plain.     

Seawater intrusion in the Salalah plain aquifer,Oman

Salalah is situated on a fresh water aquifer that is replenished during the annual monsoon season. The aquifer is the only source of water in Salalah city. The rainfall and mist precipitation in the Jabal AlQara recharges the plain with significant renewable fresh groundwater that has allowed agricultural and industrial development to occur. In Salalah city where groundwater has been used extensively since the early 1980s for agricultural, industrial and municipal purposes, the groundwater has been withdrawn from the aquifer more rapidly than it can be replenished by natural recharge. The heavy withdrawal of large quantities of the groundwater from the aquifer has led to the intrusion of seawater. Agricultural activities utilize over 70% of the groundwater. For the study of the saltwater intrusion, the area has been divided into four strips, A, B, C and D, on the basis of land-use in the area. Water samples were collected from 18 water wells. Chemical analysis of major ions and pollution parameters in the groundwater was carried out and compared to the previous observed values. The electrical conductivity and chloride concentrations were highest in the agricultural and residential strips and Garziz grass farm. Before 1992 the aquifer was in a steady state, but presently (2005) the groundwater quality in most of the agricultural and residential strips does not meet drinking water standards. In addition, model simulations were developed with the computer code MODFLOW and MT3DMS for solute transport to determine the movement of the freshwater/saltwater interface. The study proposes the protection of the groundwater in Salalah plain aquifer from further encroachment by artificial recharge with reclaimed water, preferably along the Salalah coastal agricultural strip. This scheme can also be applied to other regions with similar conditions.     

Effects of the planned ephesus recreational canal on freshwater–seawater interface in the Selçuk sub-basin, İzmir-Turkey

An artificial water canal opening is planned between the Agean Sea and the historical Ephesus site for the sake of tourism in the Selçuk sub-basin. In order to predict the effects of the planned canal on freshwater–seawater interface and related contamination in the aquifer, 3-D numerical density dependent flow and solute transport simulations were carried out. The simulations included the pre-pumping and pumping periods without a canal and the prediction period in the presence of the canal. Chloride concentration comparisons of the results obtained from the pre-pumping period and the pumping period indicate that the freshwater-seawater interface in the aquifer has progressed inland due to artificial discharge in the sub-basin. Drawdown during the pumping period is about 15 cm. The planned canal opening could further lower the groundwater levels in the area and would change the groundwater flow directions in the first 4 years. Then the levels and flow directions will nearly recover. However, the canal opening could cause further seawater intrusion into the aquifer to the extent that groundwater would be unfit to use for irrigation after the seventh year of the canal opening in the irrigation cooperative II wells area and would be unfit to use for drinking purposes after the tenth year in the municipality wells area located at the south of the cooperative II wells. On the other hand, the cooperative I wells would not be effected by the opening of the canal.     

Groundwater pollution due to industrial effluent at Tuppa, New Nanded, Maharashtra, India

Analyses of 67 samples collected from 25 bore wells and 42 dug wells in the basaltic aquifer at Tuppa, New Nanded, Maharashtra, India over a period of three years revealed that groundwater from this region shows higher content of TDS, Cl, TH, Ca, Mg and SO₄ The geochemical characteristic of groundwater is related to pollution. The source of this pollution is effluent from industries. The effluent is discharged in a stream flowing through this area. The effluent is also discharged in the injection wells. The result of this is that pollutants have entered into the aquifer system and flowed farther in the eastern direction. The zone of pollution has an aerial extent of more than 38 km². The values of molar ratios of effluent sample are either the same or a little higher than the samples from the polluted zone, suggesting that industrial effluent, probably, is the source of pollution in this region. The people from this region have already stopped using water from these polluted wells, which forms the only source of drinking water in the area.     

Environmental characterization of a karst polje: an example from Izeh polje,southwest Iran

Groundwater contamination is a well-known phenomenon, which occurs on local and regional scales in Izeh polje. The aims of this paper are investigation of the impact of human activities on the polje ecosystem, determination of the vulnerability of ground water, and to solve environmental problems. Nitrate contamination of groundwater in the Izeh polje was predicted using a solute transport model. The nitrate concentration in groundwater in most parts of Izeh polje is greater than maximum concentration permissible for drinking water, i.e., 45 mg/l. The main source of nitrate in the eastern underground areas of Izeh city is the domestic sewage. Bacterial pollution of shallow ground water in Izeh polje is severe and widespread. About 45% of ground water samples in May and September 2001 have positive MPN coliforms. Infiltration of polluted surface waters and decrease of water table depth, have lead to bacterial pollution of 80% of ground water samples in January 2002. The northeast, south and southwest areas of Izeh polje have higher pollution potential rather than its middle parts. The aquifer vulnerability indices in the middle, eastern, and northern parts of the polje are moderately lower as a result of decreased sediment size of the aquifer. The pollution in the polje depends on the amount and presence of pollutants. If they do exist, the possibility of pollution is considerable due to the coarseness of materials and shallow depth of groundwater table.     

Modeling effects of nitrate from non-point sources on groundwater quality in an agricultural watershed in Prince Edward Island, Canada

Intensification of potato farming has contaminated groundwater with nitrate in many cases in Prince Edward Island, Canada, which raises concerns for drinking water quality and associated ecosystem protection. Numerical models were developed to simulate nitrate-N transport in groundwater and enhance understanding of the impacts of farming on water quality in the Wilmot River watershed. Nitrate is assumed non-reactive based on δ¹⁵N and δ¹⁸O in nitrate and geochemical information. The source functions were reconstructed from tile drain measurements, N budget and historical land-use information. The transport model was calibrated to long-term nitrate-N observations in the Wilmot River and verified against nitrate-N measurements in two rivers from watersheds with similar physical conditions. Simulations show groundwater flow is stratified and vertical flux decreases exponentially with depth. While it would take several years to reduce the nitrate-N in the shallow portion of the aquifer, it would take several decades or even longer to restore water quality in the deeper portions of the aquifer. Elevated nitrate-N concentrations in base flow are positively correlated with potato cropping intensity and significant reductions in nitrate-N loading are required if the nitrate level of surface water is to recover to the standard in the Canadian Water Quality Guidelines.     

西宁市贵德县河滨公园林场第四系含水层弥散试验研究

地下水污染问题日益严重,研究溶质运移的弥散理论开始应用于实际问题。建立地下水溶质运移模型,对地下水中污染物的运移及发展趋势进行准确预测,是对地下水进行保护、对地下水污染进行控制的基础。而弥散参数的确定则是地下水溶质运移模型建立的关键环节之一,直接影响着模型预测结果的精度和准确性。 对西宁市贵德县地下水污染的水质运移规律进行分析,在贵德县河滨公园林场采用径向收敛流水动力弥散理论方法进行了第四系含水层现场弥散试验,计算了试验场地潜水含水层的弥散度,获得纵向弥散度(a_L)为0.843~0.998 cm,横向弥散度(a_T)经验推断值为0.17~0.20 cm,为进一步建立该地区的地下水溶质运移模型、预测地下水污染的发展趋势和评价该地区地下水环境质量提供了数据参考。     

Nitrate contamination in a shallow urban aquifer in East Ukraine: evidence from hydrochemical,stable isotopes of nitrate and land use analysis

A combined hydrochemical and stable isotope approach was used to investigate the origin of nitrate in the shallow unconfined groundwater of Kharkiv city, Eastern Ukraine. The contamination was investigated in the context of land use within the catchment area. The observed enrichment of sulfate, chloride and nitrate suggests significant groundwater contamination in the shallow urban aquifer, which is widely used as drinking water source for the urban population. Characteristic nitrate/chloride ratios as well as stable isotope ratios (N and O) of nitrate in the most contaminated springs confirmed that septic waste from leaky sewer systems was the main source of nitrate contamination in the groundwater. Nitrate contamination is linked to the type of land use and sewage treatment regime in the catchment area. It is also modulated by the regional hydrogeology, which determines the susceptibility of a given aquifer toward groundwater pollution. A more quantitative assessment of nitrate sources based on the nitrate isotope analysis alone is rather difficult. However, our study confirms that the combination of hydrochemical tracers, robust land-use analysis and nitrate stable isotope measurements represents a valuable approach to identify the origin of the nitrate contamination.     

Recharging of contaminated aquifer with reclaimed sewage water

About 40% of the water supply of Cairo, Egypt, is drawn from a groundwater reservoir located southeast of the Nile Delta. Several thousand shallow wells supply drinking water to the farmers from the same groundwater reservoir, which is recharged by seepage from Ismailia canal, the irrigation canal network, and other wastewater lagoons in the same areas. Sewage water lagoons were located at the high ground of the area, recharging contaminated water into the aquifer. Since the groundwater in this area is used for drinking purposes, it was decided to treat the sewage water recharging the aquifer for health reasons. In this paper a solution to the problem is presented using an injection well recharging good quality water into the aquifer. A pumping well located at a distance downstream is used to pump the contaminated water out of the aquifer. A three-dimensional solute transport model was developed to study the concentration distribution with remediation time in the contaminated zone.     

基于GIS的农业面源硝酸盐地下水污染动态风险评价

地下水中的硝酸盐污染具有全球性,这不仅是一个环境问题,也是一个经济和人类健康问题。DRASTIC方法可以进行地下水污染的脆弱性评价,但是却没有涵盖风险的概念,也忽视了污染物随地表水流运动的动态特性。因此,所得结果可能有碍于“欧洲水管理框架指南”在地下水水质管理中的执行。笔者基于DRASTIC方法开发了一个动态风险评价方法,并将其运用于英国北爱尔兰Upper Bann流域中的一个小流域。研究区地下水硝酸盐污染风险评价结果表明,此方法将有效地帮助决策者在流域范围内开展农业面源地下水污染预防措施。“非常高风险”和“高风险”区分别占研究区面积的5.1%和10.5%。此结果可帮助当地政府针对流域内这些“非常高风险”和“高风险”区的特点制订地下水质保护政策。此方法同样适用于任何面源可溶性污染物的地下水污染动态风险评价。     

Analysis of temporal and spatial variations in groundwater nitrate and development of its pollution plume: a case study in Karaj aquifer

Considering the importance of groundwater resources in water-supply demands in arid and semiarid areas such as Iran, it is essential to investigate the risk of groundwater pollution. Nitrate is one of the main pollutants that penetrate into the groundwater from various sources such as chemical fertilizers, pesticides, and domestic and industrial sewage. Unfortunately currently, nitrate contamination of the aquifers is a serious problem in Iran. The Karaj aquifer is not exempted, and the nitrate pollution zone, with concentrations far beyond the permitted limit (50 mg/L), expands fast. In this paper, the long-term groundwater-quality data (from 2000 to 2013) collected from Alborz Province Water and Wastewater Company were analyzed using ArcGIS10 and statistical software, and the spatial and temporal patterns of nitrate pollution in drinking-water wells in the Karaj plain and effective parameters (such as depth to groundwater level, hydraulic gradient, land use, precipitation, and urban, agricultural and industrial wastewater) were investigated. The authors also investigated the status of nitrate concentration variation using the concepts of geostatistics, based on determinations from 62 to 194 surveyed wells with a suitable distribution across the plain. With respect to the relationship between quality parameters, hydrogeological status of the aquifer and land usage, causes of the increase in the concentration of nitrate in the water and its trend were investigated as well. Results revealed that the nitrate levels in the northern portion of the study area were the highest with maximum concentrations of 181.7 mg/L from 2000 to 2013. Based on nitrate concentration distribution maps, the levels of nitrate increased from 2006 onwards to 26–100 mg/L. Unfortunately from 2008 to 2012, a pollution zone with a nitrate water concentration of 101–150 mg/L has been observed and even a concentration of 180 mg/L has been determined. In 2000, the entire aquifer area has been drinkable but with the increase in nitrate concentration, the area with undrinkable water has expanded to 21% in 2003, 24% in 2005, 33% in 2007, 39% in 2009, 43% in 2011 and 44% in 2013. The results of this study could provide valuable information with on the status of nitrate water concentrations in the Karaj plain which demands proper strategies and qualitative approaches in the future.     

The impact of urban development on coastal aquifers near Cotonou, Benin

Mineralization processes and water quality of Quaternary to Mio-Pliocene sanstone aquifers near Cotonou, Benin have been studied using wells sampled during May 1991, August 1991 and April 1992. Anthropogenic pollution, indicated especially by high concentrations of nitrate, P and K, has been detected in the upper aquifer. In contrast, the lower aquifer has acceptable concentrations of solutes, with the exception of the Godomey pumping area, where incipient saline intrusion is detected. Some suggestions are made for aquifer protection based on the careful understanding of groundwater flow directions.     

Correlation between nitrate concentration in groundwater and parameters affecting aquifer intrinsic vulnerability

This paper is the result of a study which was carried out in order to verify if the traditional methods to evaluate the intrinsic vulnerability or vulnerability related parameters, are able to clarify the problem of nitrate pollution in groundwater. In particular, the aim was to evaluate limitations and problems connected to aquifer vulnerability methods applied to nitrate contamination prevision in groundwater. The investigation was carried out by comparing NO₃ ⁻ concentrations, measured in March and November 2004 in the shallow aquifer, and the vulnerability classes, obtained by using GOD and TOT methods. Moreover, it deals with a comparison between NO₃ ⁻ concentrations and single parameters (depth to water table, land use and nitrogen input). The study area is the plain sector of Piemonte (Northern Italy), where an unconfined aquifer nitrate contamination exists. In this area the anthropogenic presence is remarkable and the input of N-fertilizers and zootechnical effluents to the soil cause a growing amount of nitrates in groundwater. This approach, used in a large area (about 10,000 km²) and in several monitoring wells (about 500), allowed to compare the efficiency of different vulnerability methods and to verify the importance of every parameter on the nitrate concentrations in the aquifer. Furthermore it allowed to obtain interesting correlations in different hydrogeological situations. Correlations between depth to water table, land use and nitrogen input to the soil with nitrate concentrations in groundwater show unclear situations: in fact these comparisons describe the phenomenon trend and highlight the maximum nitrate concentrations for each circumstance but often show wide ranges of possible nitrate concentrations. The same situation could be observed by comparing vulnerability indexes and nitrate concentrations in groundwater. These results suggest that neither single parameters nor vulnerability methods (GOD and TOT) are able to describe individually the complex phenomena affecting nitrate concentrations in soil, subsoil and groundwater. In particular, the traditional methods for vulnerability analysis do not analyze physical processes in aquifers, such as denitrification and nitrate dilution. According to a recent study in the shallow unconfined aquifer of the Piemonte plain, dilution can be considered as the main cause for nitrate attenuation in groundwater.