ANALYSES OF VECTOR MAGNETOGRAMS IN FLARE-PRODUCTIVE ACTIVE REGIONS

This paper reviews studies of the relationship between the evolution of vector magnetic fields and the occurrence of major solar flares. Most of the data were obtained by the video magnetograph systems at Big Bear Solar Observatory (BBSO) and Huairou Solar Observatory (HSO). Due to the favorable weather and seeing conditions at both stations, high-resolution vector magnetograph sequences of many active regions that produced major flares during last solar maximum (1989–1993) have been recorded. We have analyzed several sequences of magnetograms to study the evolution of vector magnetic fields of flare productive active regions. The studies have focused on the following three aspects: (1) processes which build up magnetic shear in active regions; (2) the pre-flare magnetic structure of active regions; and (3) changes of magnetic shear immediately preceding and following major flares. We obtained the following results based on above studies: (1) Emerging flux regions (EFRs) play very important roles in the production of complicated photospheric flow patterns, magnetic shear and flares. (2) Although the majority of flares prefer to occur in magnetically sheared regions, many flares occurred in regions without strong photospheric magnetic shear. (3) We found that photospheric magnetic shear increased after all the 6 X-class flares studied by us. We want to emphasize that this discovery is not contradictory to the energy conservation principle, because a flare is a three-dimensional process, and the photosphere only provides a two-dimensional boundary condition. This argument is supported by the fact that if two initial ribbons of a flare are widely separated (which may correspond to a higher-altitude flare), the correlation of the flare with strong magnetic shear is weak; if the two ribbons of a flare are close (which may correspond to a lower-altitude flare), its correlation with the strong shear is strong. (4) We have analyzed 18 additional M-class flares observed by HSO in 1989 and 1990. No detectable shear change was found for all the cases. It is likely that only the most energetic flares can affect the photospheric magnetic topology.     

Observations of vector magnetic fields in flaring active regions

We present vector magnetograph data of 6 active regions, all of which produced major flares. Of the 20 M-class (or above) flares, 7 satisfy the flare conditions prescribed by Hagyard (high shear and strong transverse fields). Strong photospheric shear, however, is not necessarily a condition for a flare. We find an increase in the shear for two flares, a 6-deg shear increase along the neutral line after a X-2 flare and a 13-deg increase after a M-1.9 flare. For other flares, we did not detect substantial shear changes.Visiting Associate from Beijing Astronomical Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080, China.     

Turbulence In The Solar Atmosphere: Manifestations And Diagnostics Via Solar Image Processing

Intermittent magnetohydrodynamical turbulence is most likely at work in the magnetized solar atmosphere. As a result, an array of scaling and multi-scaling image-processing techniques can be used to measure the expected self-organization of solar magnetic fields. While these techniques advance our understanding of the physical system at work, it is unclear whether they can be used to predict solar eruptions, thus obtaining a practical significance for space weather. We address part of this problem by focusing on solar active regions and by investigating the usefulness of scaling and multi-scaling image-processing techniques in solar flare prediction. Since solar flares exhibit spatial and temporal intermittency, we suggest that they are the products of instabilities subject to a critical threshold in a turbulent magnetic configuration. The identification of this threshold in scaling and multi-scaling spectra would then contribute meaningfully to the prediction of solar flares. We find that the fractal dimension of solar magnetic fields and their multi-fractal spectrum of generalized correlation dimensions do not have significant predictive ability. The respective multi-fractal structure functions and their inertial-range scaling exponents, however, probably provide some statistical distinguishing features between flaring and non-flaring active regions. More importantly, the temporal evolution of the above scaling exponents in flaring active regions probably shows a distinct behavior starting a few hours prior to a flare and therefore this temporal behavior may be practically useful in flare prediction. The results of this study need to be validated by more comprehensive works over a large number of solar active regions. Sufficient statistics may also establish critical thresholds in the values of the multi-fractal structure functions and/or their scaling exponents above which a flare may be predicted with a high level of confidence. Based on the author's contributed talk “Manifestations and Diagnostics of Turbulence in the Solar Atmosphere”, presented at the Solar Image Processing Workshop II, Annapolis, Maryland, USA, 3–5 November 2004.     

Impact of Magnetic Environment on the Generation of High-Energy Neutrons at the Sun

This paper demonstrates the important interplanetary manifestation of strongly tilted magnetic fields at the flare site. We start with analysis of Big Bear Solar Observatory (BBSO) observations of magnetic structures at sites of two flares responsible for >100 MeV neutron events. Based on these observations, a model of neutron production is considered. This model takes into account the observed large tilt of magnetic field lines at footpoints of flare magnetic loops. Results of the new calculations are compared with both previous calculations and observations. The tilt of magnetic field lines at the flare site is proved to be the most important parameter limiting anisotropy of high-energy secondary emission in solar flares.     

Subsurface Vorticity of Flaring <Emphasis Type="Italic">versus</Emphasis> Flare-Quiet Active Regions

We apply discriminant analysis to 1023 active regions and their subsurface-flow parameters, such as vorticity and kinetic helicity density, with the goal of distinguishing between flaring and non-flaring active regions. We derive synoptic subsurface flows by analyzing GONG high-resolution Doppler data with ring-diagram analysis. We include magnetic-flux values in the discriminant analysis derived from NSO Kitt Peak and SOLIS synoptic maps binned to the same spatial scale as the helioseismic analysis. For each active region, we determine the flare information from GOES and include all flares within 60° central meridian distance to match the coverage of the ring-diagram analysis. The subsurface-flow characteristics improve the ability to distinguish between flaring and non-flaring active regions. For the C- and M-class flare category, the most important subsurface parameter is the so-called structure vorticity, which estimates the horizontal gradient of the horizontal-vorticity components. The no-event skill score, which measures the improvement over predicting that no events occur, reaches 0.48 for C-class flares and 0.32 for M-class flares, when the structure vorticity at three depths combined with total magnetic flux are used. The contributions come mainly from shallow layers within about 2 Mm of the surface and layers deeper than about 7 Mm.     

On the role of the magnetic configuration of flares for production of type III solar radio bursts

This paper investigates the possibility that the particular location of flare production sites in an active region is intimately connected to the production of type III radio bursts as well as centimetric and hard X-ray events. For the few active regions analysed (viz. McMath 8863, 8905, 8907 and 8921) it is shown that even a crude statistical test is sufficient in revealing significant differences concerning the emissions of these radiations by flares located in various flare production sites. In particular, flares located outside the general bipolar pattern of the active region are characterized by a higher type III flare association rate (? 50 %) than those taking place inside of it (? 20 %). Centimetric and hard X-ray events are more likely to be expected in connection with flares located inside strong magnetic fields arising from well developed sunspots. Such results are pointing out that the concept of ‘flare production sites’ is important not only in relation with the Hα flare activity but also in relation with the non-thermal emissions accompanying the flares. Probably this is due to changing magnetic configuration from one flare site to the other.     

Evolution of Electric Currents Associated with Two M-Class Flares

Using one-minute cadence vector magnetograms from Big Bear Solar Observatory (BBSO), we analyze the temporal behavior of derived longitudinal electric currents associated with two flares on July 26, 2002. One of the events is an M1.0 flare which occurred in active region NOAA 10044, while the other is an M8.7 flare in the adjacent region 10039. Rapid changes of magnetic fields in the form of flux emergence are found to be associated with both of these events. However, the temporal behavior of electric currents are very different. For the M1.0 flare, the longitudinal electric current density drops rapidly near the flaring neutral line; while for the M8.7 flare, the current density rapidly increases, confirming the picture of the current-carrying flux emergence. We offer a possible explanation for such a difference: magnetic reconnection at different heights for the two events, near the photosphere for the M1.0 flare, and higher up for the M8.7 flare.     

Automated Solar Flare Detection and Feature Extraction in High-Resolution and Full-Disk H$\upalpha$ Images

In this article, an automated solar flare detection method applied to both full-disk and local high-resolution H\(\upalpha\) images is proposed. An adaptive gray threshold and an area threshold are used to segment the flare region. Features of each detected flare event are extracted, e.g. the start, peak, and end time, the importance class, and the brightness class. Experimental results have verified that the proposed method can obtain more stable and accurate segmentation results than previous works on full-disk images from Big Bear Solar Observatory (BBSO) and Kanzelhöhe Observatory for Solar and Environmental Research (KSO), and satisfying segmentation results on high-resolution images from the Goode Solar Telescope (GST). Moreover, the extracted flare features correlate well with the data given by KSO. The method may be able to implement a more complicated statistical analysis of H\(\upalpha\) solar flares.     

How are Emerging Flux,Flares and CMEs Related to Magnetic Polarity Imbalance in Midi Data?

In order to understand whether major flares or coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can be related to changes in the longitudinal photospheric magnetic field, we study 4 young active regions during seven days of their disk passage. This time period precludes any biases which may be introduced in studies that look at the field evolution during the short-term flare or CME period only. Data from the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) with a time cadence of 96 min are used. Corrections are made to the data to account for area foreshortening and angle between line of sight and field direction, and also the underestimation of the flux densities. We make a systematic study of the evolution of the longitudinal magnetic field, and analyze flare and CME occurrence in the magnetic evolution. We find that the majority of CMEs and flares occur during or after new flux emergence. The flux in all four active regions is observed to have deviations from polarity balance both on the long term (solar rotation) and on the short term (few hours). The long-term imbalance is not due to linkage outside the active region; it is primarily related to the east–west distance from central meridian, with the sign of polarity closer to the limb dominating. The sequence of short-term imbalances are not closely linked to CMEs and flares and no permanent imbalance remains after them. We propose that both kinds of imbalance are due to the presence of a horizontal field component (parallel to the photospheric surface) in the emerging flux.     

Magnetic field of the solar wind

Relationship between the geoefficiency of the solar flares as well as of the active regions passing the central meridian of the Sun and the configuration of the large scale solar magnetic field is studied.It is shown that if the tangential component of the large scale magnetic field at the active region or at the flare region is directed southwards, that region and that flare produce geomagnetic storm. In case when the tangential magnetic field is directed northward, the active region and the flares occurring at that region do not cause any geomagnetic disturbance.An index of the geoefficiency of the solar flares and of the active regions is proposed.     

Rates of Flaring in Individual Active Regions

Rates of flaring in individual active regions on the Sun during the period 1981–1999 are examined using United States Air Force/Mount Wilson (USAF/MWL) active-region observations together with the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) soft X-ray flare catalog. Of the flares in the catalog above C1 class, 61.5% are identified with an active region. Evidence is presented for obscuration, i.e. that the increase in soft X-ray flux during a large flare decreases the likelihood of detection of soft X-ray events immediately following the large flare. This effect means that many events are missing from the GOES catalog. It is estimated that in the absence of obscuration the number of flares above C1 class would be higher by (75±23)%. A second observational selection effect – an increased tendency for larger flares to be identified with an active region – is also identified. The distributions of numbers of flares produced by individual active regions and of mean flaring rate among active regions are shown to be approximately exponential, although there are excess numbers of active regions with low flare numbers and low flaring rates. A Bayesian procedure is used to analyze the time history of the flaring rate in the individual active regions. A substantial number of active regions appear to exhibit variation in flaring rate during their transit of the solar disk. Examples are shown of regions with and without rate variation, illustrating the different distributions of times between events (waiting-time distributions) that are observed. A piecewise constant Poisson process is found to provide a good model for the observed waiting-time distributions. Finally, applications of analysis of the rate of flaring to understanding the flare mechanism and to flare prediction are discussed.     

Type III radio burst productivity of solar flares

We study the occurrence probability of type III radio bursts during flares as a function of the flare position on the Sun. We find that this probability peaks around 30° east of the central meridian, which points to a reciprocal tilt of the average radiation pattern of type IIIs. We argue that anisotropic scattering of the radiation by overdense coronal fibers parallel to the magnetic field is the dominant factor determining the orientation of radiation patterns. It follows that the average magnetic field appears to be tilted 30° west from the vertical. We also find that within a given active region, the average type III production rate of flares peaks 1° west of the center of gravity of all the flares of this active region.We infer that the coronal magnetic field above active regions presents a strong east-west asymmetry, resulting from the well known asymmetry at the photospheric level. As the west side of an active region covers a smaller area with stronger magnetic field than the east side, western flares are generally closer to open field lines than eastern flares. As a consequence, accelerated particles on the trailing (east) side of active regions usually stay trapped in magnetic loops, while on the leading (west) side they are more likely to escape along open lines into interplanetary space. As a result of the initial westward tilt of these open lines, we estimate that the corresponding Archimedean spiral is on average (apparently) rooted 15° west of the flare.     

Statistical Moments of Active-Region Images During Solar Flares

We present new temporal-evolution diagnostics of solar flares. The high-order statistical moments (skewness and kurtosis) of the Hα images of active regions during solar flares were computed from their initial phases up to their maxima. The same method was used for quiet active regions for tests and comparison. We found that temporal profiles of the Hα statistical moments during flares roughly correspond to those observed in soft X-rays by the GOES satellite. Maxima of the cross-correlation coefficients between the skewness and the GOES X-rays were found to be 0.82?–?0.98, and the GOES X-rays are delayed 0?–?144 seconds against the skewness. We recognized that these moments are very sensitive to pre-flare activities. Therefore we used them to determine the flare starting-time and to study the pre-flare quasi-periodic processes. We determined the periods of these pre-flare processes in an interval of 20?–?400 seconds by using special convolution filters and Fourier analysis. We propose to use this method to analyze active regions during the very early phases of solar flares, and even in real time.     

Predictions of Energy and Helicity in Four Major Eruptive Solar Flares

In order to better understand the solar genesis of interplanetary magnetic clouds (MCs), we model the magnetic and topological properties of four large eruptive solar flares and relate them to observations. We use the three-dimensional Minimum Current Corona model (Longcope, 1996, Solar Phys. 169, 91) and observations of pre-flare photospheric magnetic field and flare ribbons to derive values of reconnected magnetic flux, flare energy, flux rope helicity, and orientation of the flux-rope poloidal field. We compare model predictions of those quantities to flare and MC observations, and within the estimated uncertainties of the methods used find the following: The predicted model reconnection fluxes are equal to or lower than the reconnection fluxes inferred from the observed ribbon motions. Both observed and model reconnection fluxes match the MC poloidal fluxes. The predicted flux-rope helicities match the MC helicities. The predicted free energies lie between the observed energies and the estimated total flare luminosities. The direction of the leading edge of the MC’s poloidal field is aligned with the poloidal field of the flux rope in the AR rather than the global dipole field. These findings compel us to believe that magnetic clouds associated with these four solar flares are formed by low-corona magnetic reconnection during the eruption, rather than eruption of pre-existing structures in the corona or formation in the upper corona with participation of the global magnetic field. We also note that since all four flares occurred in active regions without significant pre-flare flux emergence and cancelation, the energy and helicity that we find are stored by shearing and rotating motions, which are sufficient to account for the observed radiative flare energy and MC helicity.     

Source of the solar flare energy

Recent Skylab and magnetograph observations indicate that strong photospheric electric currents underlie small flare events such as X-ray loops and surges. What is not yet certain, because of the non-local dynamics of a fluid with embedded magnetic field, is whether flare emission derives from the energy of on-site electric currents or from energy which is propagated to the flare site through an intermediary, such as a stream of fast electrons or a group of waves. Nevertheless, occurrences of: (1) strong photospheric electric currents beneath small flares; (2) similar magnetic fine structure inside and outside active regions; (3) eruptive prominences and coronal white light transients in association with big flares; and, (4) active boundaries of large unipolar regions suggest the possibility that all phenomena of solar activity are manifestations of the rapid ejection and/or gradual removal of electric currents of various sizes from the photosphere. The challenge is to trace the precise magnetofluid dynamics of each active phenomenon, particularly the role of electric current build-up and dissipation in the low corona.     

Statistical Models for the Solar Flare Interval Distribution in Individual Active Regions

This article discusses statistical models for the solar flare interval distribution in individual active regions. We analyzed solar flare data in 55 active regions that are listed in the Geosynchronous Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) soft X-ray flare catalog for the years from 1981 to 2005. We discuss some problems with a conventional procedure to derive probability density functions from any data set and propose a new procedure, which uses the maximum likelihood method and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) to objectively compare some competing probability density functions. Previous studies of the solar flare interval distribution in individual active regions only dealt with constant or time-dependent Poisson process models, and no other models were discussed. We examine three models – exponential, lognormal, and inverse Gaussian – as competing models for probability density functions in this study. We found that lognormal and inverse Gaussian models are more likely models than the exponential model for the solar flare interval distribution in individual active regions. The possible solar flare mechanisms for the distribution models are briefly mentioned. We also briefly investigated the time dependence of probability density functions of the solar flare interval distribution and found that some active regions show time dependence for lognormal and inverse Gaussian distribution functions. The results suggest that solar flares do not occur randomly in time; rather, solar flare intervals appear to be regulated by solar flare mechanisms. Determining a solar flare interval distribution is an essential step in probabilistic solar flare forecasting methods in space weather research. We briefly mention a probabilistic solar flare forecasting method as an application of a solar flare interval distribution analysis. The application of our distribution analysis to a probabilistic solar flare forecasting method is one of the main objectives of this study.     

Erratum to: The Maunder Minimum and the Sun as the Possible Source of Particles Creating Increased Abundance of the <Superscript>14</Superscript>C Carbon Isotope

Solar flares take place in regions of strong magnetic fields and are generally accepted to be the result of a resistive instability leading to magnetic reconnection. When new flux emerges into a pre-existing active region it can act as a flare and coronal mass ejection trigger. In this study we observed active region 10955 after the emergence of small-scale additional flux at the magnetic inversion line. We found that flaring began when additional positive flux levels exceeded 1.38×10²⁰ Mx (maxwell), approximately 7 h after the initial flux emergence. We focussed on the pre-flare activity of one B-class flare that occurred on the following day. The earliest indication of activity was a rise in the non-thermal velocity one hour before the flare. 40 min before flaring began, brightenings and pre-flare flows were observed along two loop systems in the corona, involving the new flux and the pre-existing active region loops. We discuss the possibility that reconnection between the new flux and pre-existing loops before the flare drives the flows by either generating slow mode magnetoacoustic waves or a pressure gradient between the newly reconnected loops. The subsequent B-class flare originated from fast reconnection of the same loop systems as the pre-flare flows.     

High abnormal rotation rates of sunspots and flare productivity

Solar activity, such as flares and CMEs, affect the interplanetary medium, and Earth’s atmosphere. Therefore, to understand the Space Weather, we need to understand the mechanisms of solar activity. Towards this end, we use 1135 events of solar H_α flares and the positional data of sunspots from the archive of Solar Geophysical Data (SGD) for the period January–April, 2000 and compute the abnormal rotation rates that lead to high flare productivity. We report that the occurrence of 5 or more flares in a day in association with a given sunspot group can be defined as high flare productivity and the sunspots that have an abnormal rotation rates of ～4–10 deg day^?1 trigger high flare productivity. Further, in order to compare the flare productivity expressed as the strength of the flux emitted, especially the soft X-ray (SXR) flares in the frequency range of 1–8 Å, we compute the flare index of SXR flares and find that 8 out of 28 active regions used in this study satisfy the requirement for being flare productive. This enables us to conclude that the high rotation rates of sunspots are an important mechanism to understand the flare productivity, especially numerical flare productivity that includes flares of all class.     

Evolution of vector magnetic fields and the August 27 1990 X-3 flare

This paper studies the evolution of vector magnetic fields in the active region Boulder No. 6233 during an 11-hour observing period and its relationship to an X-3 flare on August 27, 1990.We observed the evolution of magnetic fields, which includes magnetic shear build-up, directly in high-resolution vector magnetograph movies. The magnetic shear is observed to be built up in two ways: (1) shear motion between two poles of opposite magnetic polarities and (2) direct collision of two poles of opposite polarities. When two magnetic elements of opposite polarities are canceling, the field lines are observed to turn from direct connection (potential) to a sheared configuration during the process.An X-3 flare occurred at 2100 UT. The vector magnetic structure showed an unexpected pattern of changes during and after the flare. The shear (defined as the angle between the measured transverse field and the calculated potential field) in the area covering two major footpoints increased rapidly coinciding with the burst of GOES X-ray flux. While the flare faded away in about one hour, the high shear status dropped slowly for the remainder of the observing period. Immediately after the flare, new flux emerged more rapidly and the flow speed of several magnetic elements increased near the flare footpoints.In this active region and a few other flare-productive regions we have studied recently, we always find rapid and complicated flow motions near the sites where flares occur. Photospheric flows appear to be another important factor for the production of flares.     

High-temperature flares observed in broadband soft X-rays

Broadband soft solar X-rays monitored by the GOES satellites have been used to detect high-temperature flares (> 25 MK). The data suggest that there are two general categories of high-temperature flares: those that are intrinsically hot and recur repeatedly in particular active regions and those that show enhanced temperatures because of their proximity to the solar limb. Intrinsically hot flares associate with gamma-ray flares and impulsive hard X-ray flares. Hot flares show a small incidence with gradual hard X-ray flares, but those cases are either extremely intense flares or limb flares. The apparently hot flares occur near the visible limb, which suggests the strong thermal stratification of flare plasmas as demonstrated by over-the-limb events; even on the visible disk near the limb, the lower, cooler plasmas are somehow partially occulted.