泥石流灾害的物源控制与高性能减灾

传统的观点认为山区泥石流灾害的形成主要取决于降水,其产汇流运动的过程是可采用水文过程模拟的物理过程。基于目前泥石流灾害集中分布于地震带和干旱河谷的现象以及现有的泥石流形成与防治研究基础,我们发现在人类居住与活动的山区,其坡度和降水极易满足泥石流灾害的形成条件,因此物源控制着泥石流灾害的孕育、形成和演化,主宰了灾害性泥石流的过程。物源的动态变化改变了泥石流发育的难易程度,主导了泥石流的规模和频率变化。泥石流物源在内外动力作用下经历松散化或密实化两个不同的演化过程,不同密度的土体通过剪缩或剪胀形成不同规模、频率与性质的泥石流。此外物源也控制了泥石流的规模放大过程。实践证明基于物源控制理论的区域预测、分级多指标预警和工程调控技术是科学有效的。因此,灾害性泥石流是一个地质作用主导的地质过程,该过程的特征描述需要更多地考虑基于地质环境条件的经验模型,且高效能的灾害预测预警与调控需要基于物源控制的机理和过程而进行。     

A regional real-time debris-flow warning system for the District of North Vancouver, Canada

Engineered (structural) debris-flow mitigation for all creeks with elements at risk and subject to debris flows is often outside of the financial capability of the regulating government, and heavy task-specific taxation may be politically undesirable. Structural debris-flow mitigation may only be achieved over long (decadal scale) time periods. Where immediate structural mitigation is cost-prohibitive, an interim solution can be identified to manage residual risk. This can be achieved by implementing a debris-flow warning system that enables residents to reduce their personal risk for loss of life through timely evacuation. This paper describes Canada??s first real-time debris-flow warning system which has been operated for 2 years for the District of North Vancouver. The system was developed based on discriminant function analyses of 20 hydrometric input variables consisting of antecedent rainfall and storm rainfall intensities for a total of 63 storms. Of these 27 resulted in shallow landslides and subsequent debris flows, while 36 storms were sampled that did not reportedly result in debris flows. The discriminant function analysis identified as the three most significant variables: the 4-week antecedent rainfall, the 2-day antecedent rainfall, and the 48-h rainfall intensity during the landslide-triggering storm. Discriminant functions were developed and tested for robustness against a nearby rain gauge dataset. The resulting classification functions provide a measure for the likelihood of debris-flow initiation. Several system complexities were added to render the classification functions into a usable and defensible warning system. This involved the addition of various functionality criteria such as not skipping warning levels, providing sufficient warning time before debris flows would occur, and hourly adjustment of actual rainfall vs. predicted rainfall since predicted rainfall is not error-free. After numerous iterations that involved warning threshold and cancelation refinements and further model calibrations, an optimal solution was found that best matches the actual debris-flow data record. Back-calculation of the model??s 21-year record confirmed that 76% of all debris flows would have occurred during warning or severe warning levels. Adding the past 2 years of system operation, this percentage increases marginally to 77%. With respect to the District of North Vancouver boundaries, all debris flows occur during Warning and Severe Warnings emphasizing the validity of the system to the area for which it was intended. To operate the system, real-time rainfall data are obtained from a rain gauge in the District of North Vancouver. Antecedent rainfall is automatically calculated as a sliding time window for the 4-week and 2-day periods every hour. The predicted 48-h storm rainfall data are provided by the Geophysical Disaster Computational Fluid Dynamics Centre at the Earth and Ocean Science Department at the University of British Columbia and is updated every hour as rainfall is recorded during a given storm. The warning system differentiates five different stages: no watch, watch level 1 (the warning level is unlikely to be reached), watch level 2 (the warning level is likely to be reached), warning, and severe warning. The debris-flow warning system has operated from October 1, 2009 to April 30, 2010 and October 1, 2010 and April 30, 2011. Fortunately, we were able to evaluate model performance because the exact times of debris flows during November 2009 and January 2010 were recorded. In both cases, the debris flows did not only occur during the warning level but coincided with peaks in the warning graphs. Furthermore, four debris flows occurred during a warning period in November 2009 in the Metro Vancouver watershed though their exact time of day is unknown. The warning level was reached 13 times, and in four of these cases, debris flows were recorded in the study area. One debris flow was recorded during watch II level. There was no severe warning during the 2 years of operation. The current warning level during the wet season (October to April) is accessible via District of North Vancouver??s homepage (www.dnv.org) and by automated telephone message during the rainy season.     

Recognition of debris flow,debris flood and flood hazard through watershed morphometrics

Debris flows, debris floods and floods in mountainous areas are responsible for loss of life and damage to infrastructure, making it important to recognize these hazards in the early stage of planning land developments. Detailed terrain information is seldom available and basic watershed morphometrics must be used for hazard identification. An existing model uses watershed area and relief (the Melton ratio) to differentiate watersheds prone to flooding from those subject to debris flows and debris floods. However, the hazards related to debris flows and debris floods are not the same, requiring further differentiation. Here, we demonstrate that a model using watershed length combined with the Melton ratio can be used to differentiate debris-flow and debris-flood prone watersheds. This model was tested on 65 alluvial and colluvial fans in west central British Columbia, Canada, that were examined in the field. The model correctly identified 92% of the debris-flow, 83% of the debris-flood, and 88% of the flood watersheds. With adaptation for different regional conditions, the use of basic watershed morphometrics could assist land managers, scientists, and engineers with the identification of hydrogeomorphic hazards on fans elsewhere.     

Debris-flow hazards on tributary junction fans,Chitral, Hindu Kush Range,northern Pakistan

The Chitral district of northern Pakistan lies in the eastern Hindu Kush Range. The population in this high-relief mountainous terrain is restricted to tributary-junction fans in the Chitral valley. Proximity to steep valley slopes renders these fans prone to hydrogeomorphic hazards, including landslides, floods and debris flows.This paper focuses on debris-flow hazards on tributary-junction fans in Chitral. Using field observations, satellite-image analyses and a preliminary morphometry, the tributary-junction fans in the Chitral valley are classified into (1) discrete and (2) composite. The discrete fans are modern-day active landforms and include debris cones associated with ephemeral gullies, debris fans associated with ephemeral channels and alluvial fans formed by perennial streams. The composite fans are a collage of sediment deposits of widely different ages and formed by diverse alluvial-fan forming processes. These include fans formed predominantly during MIS-2/Holocene interglacial stages superimposed by modern-day alluvial and debris fans. Composite fans are turned into relict fans when entrenched by modern-day perennial streams. These deeply incised channels discharge their sediment load directly into the trunk river without significant spread on fan surface. In comparison, when associated with ephemeral streams, active debris fans develop directly at composite-fan surfaces. Major settlements in Chitral are located on composite fans, as they provide large tracts of leveled land with easy accesses to water from the tributary streams. These fan surfaces are relatively more stable, especially when they are entrenched by perennial streams (e.g., Chitral, Ayun, and Reshun). When associated with ephemeral streams (e.g., Snowghar) or a combination of ephemeral and perennial streams (e.g., Drosh), these fans are subject to frequent debris-flow hazards.Fans associated with ephemeral streams are prone to high-frequency (∼10 years return period) debris-flow hazards. By comparison, fans associated with perennial streams are impacted by debris-flow hazards during exceptionally large events with return periods of ∼30 years. This study has utility for quick debris-flow hazard assessment in high-relief mountainous regions, especially in arid- to semi-arid south-central Asia where hazard zonation maps are generally lacking.     

A debris-flow alarm system for the Alpine Illgraben catchment: design and performance

We describe the development, implementation, and first analyses of the performance of a debris-flow warning system for the Illgraben catchment and debris fan area. The Illgraben catchment (9.5 km²), located in the Canton of Valais, Switzerland, in the Rhone River valley, is characterized by frequent and voluminous sediment transport and debris-flow activity, and is one of the most active debris-flow catchments in the Alps. It is the site of an instrumented debris-flow observation station in operation since the year 2000. The residents in Susten (municipality Leuk), tourists, and other land users, are exposed to a significant hazard. The warning system consists of four modules: community organizational planning (hazard awareness and preparedness), event detection and alerting, geomorphic catchment observation, and applied research to facilitate the development of an early warning system based on weather forecasting. The system presently provides automated alert signals near the active channel prior to (5–15 min) the arrival of a debris flow or flash flood at the uppermost frequently used channel crossing. It is intended to provide data to support decision-making for warning and evacuation, especially when unusually large debris flows are expected to leave the channel near populated areas. First-year results of the detection and alert module in comparison with the data from the independent debris-flow observation station are generally favorable. Twenty automated alerts (alarms) were issued, which triggered flashing lights and sirens at all major footpaths crossing the channel bed, for three debris flows and 16 flood flows. Only one false alarm was issued. The major difficulty we encountered is related to the variability and complexity of the events (e.g., events consisting of multiple surges) and can be largely solved by increasing the duration of the alarm. All of the alarms for hazardous events were produced by storms with a rainfall duration and intensity larger than the threshold for debris-flow activity that was defined in an earlier study, supporting our intention to investigate the use of rainfall forecasts to increase the time available for warning and implementation of active countermeasures.     

Rainfall duration and debris-flow initiated studies for real-time monitoring

A rainfall-induced debris flow warning is implemented employing real-time rain gauge data. The pre-warning for the time of landslide triggering derives the threshold or critical rainfall from historical events involving regional rainfall patterns and geological conditions. In cases of debris flow, the time taken cumulative runoff, to yield abundant water for debris triggering, is an important index that needs monitoring. In gathered historical cases, rainfall time history data from the nearest rain gauge stations to debris-flow sites connected to debris flow are used to define relationships between the rainfall intensity and duration. The effects by which the regional rainfall patterns (antecedent rainfall, duration, intensity, cumulative rainfall) and geological settings combine together to trigger a debris-flow are analyzed for real-time monitoring. The analyses focused on 61 historical hazard events with the timing of debris flow initiation and rainfall duration to burst debris-flow characteristics recorded. A combination of averaged rainfall intensity and duration is a more practical index for debris-flow monitoring than critical or threshold rainfall intensity. Because, the outburst timing of debris flows correlates closely to the peak hourly rainfall and the forecasting of peak hourly rainfall reached in a meteorological event could be a valuable index for real-time debris-flow warning.     

西藏某水电站厂区泥石流危险性分析与防治措施

西藏某水电站厂区后山发育了5条泥石流沟,2005年7月22日暴发了近百年来最大的泥石流,泥石流的规模和影响范围将直接影响到该厂房的枢纽布置、施工及运行安全。厂房区泥石流沟的泥石流固体物质来源丰富,形成区内沟道坡度陡峭,因此只要有足够的降雨就可以形成泥石流。以设计泥石流流量计算的泥石流的总径流量确定的泥石流危险范围与调查的厂区各条泥石流沟2005年的实际泛滥区很相近,并以此可以得到不同设计频率的泥石流危险区。电厂厂房区的设施在施工期和运行期间受到泥石流活动的一定影响,必须采取合理的泥石流工程防护措施,避免泥石流对厂房区设施的危害,保障电站的施工和运行,满足电厂厂区的建设需要。     

云南省威信县地质灾害与防治对策

威信县地质构造较复杂,地质灾害破坏严重。主要地质灾害类型有滑坡、崩塌、泥石流、不稳定斜坡及地裂缝五种。其中以滑坡和不稳定斜坡为主,灾害点分布较广且个体规模小,稳定性较差。调查显示,威信县地质灾害的形成与发生时多种致灾因素相互作用的结果。通过对威信县地质灾害成因分析得出:地质构造、岩土体类型、地形地貌、生态植被等因素是滑坡、泥石流、崩塌及不稳定斜坡形成的基本条件;降雨及人类活动等因素是形成滑坡、泥石流、崩塌、地裂缝及不稳定斜坡的主导因素。对地质灾害的防治应采用以群测群防为基本手段,与搬迁避让、工程防治、生物防治、清除危岩(土)体及排水为主的防治措施相结合的综合治理方法。     

Recent catastrophic debris flows in Luding county, SW China: geological hazards, rainfall analysis and dynamic characteristics

About 127 debris flow gullies have been identified, and debris flows have been an important type of geological hazards in Luding County, affecting cities, towns, rural areas, scenic spots and human’s engineering projects, such as mining and waterpower utilizing equipments. In this summary paper, recent two catastrophic debris flow events occurred on June 30, 2005, in Chuni town, in the central of the county, and on August 11, 2005, in Hailuogou scenic spot, in the southwest of the county, respectively, are reviewed. The debris flow events are introduced on the basis of field investigation and RS interpretation and the triggering factors for flow occurrence are identified. Furthermore, the rainfall related to flow occurrence including antecedent rainfall and intraday rainfall is analyzed, and a power-law function which can be used as a basic warning line is established based on both antecedent effective rainfall and intraday rainfall. Then dynamic parameters such as flow velocity and flow discharge are calculated, respectively. Through comparison and discussion, some conclusions are made including (1) The antecedent rainfall played an important role for debris flows which generated predominately based on the slope-instability due to the saturated loose sediments; (2) Despite slower flow velocity and smaller magnitude, the slope-type debris flows just like 2005-6-30 debris flows usually lead to serious damages for the difficulty to forecast and to prevent; (3) The mistaken recognition on debris flow hazards and lack of prevention consciousness strengthen the hazard and damage degree. This research is of certain significance for the prevention and mitigation of debris flow hazards and for the planning of the town building and tourism development in the future.     

Property insurance against debris-flow disasters based on risk assessment and the principal–agent theory

Dongchuan City is highly threatened by debris-flow disasters originating from Shengou gully, a typical debris-flow gully along Xiaojiang River in Yunnan Province (Kang et al. 2004). Shengou gully is studied, and a hazard assessment with numerical simulation is developed using ArcGIS 9.2 software. Debris-flow numerical simulation is an important method for predicting debris-flow inundation regions, zoning debris-flow risks, and helping in the design of debris-flow control works. Meanwhile, vulnerability measurement is essential for hazard and risk research. Based on the self-organized map neural network method, we combine the six vulnerability indicators to create an integrated debris-flow vulnerability map that depicts the vulnerability levels of Dongchuan City in Shengou Basin. Based on the risk assessment (including hazard assessment and vulnerability assessment), we adopt the principal–agent theory and use the risk degree of debris flows as an important index to build the insurance model and analyze the insurance premium of debris-flow disasters in Dongchuan City. This paper discusses the model and mechanism of property insurance in debris-flow risk regions and aims to provide technical support for insurance companies to participate in disaster prevention and reduction.     

Debris flows in the Lushan earthquake area: formation characteristics,rainfall conditions,and evolutionary tendency

Debris flows often occur in the mountainous watersheds of earthquake-affected areas, and in the Lushan earthquake area of southwestern China, they have become a significant hazard. In this study, the influencing factors and spatial distribution of debris flows were analyzed through a review of their occurrence history. Debris flows are mainly distributed in the northwestern part of the study area, which hosts the greatest density of active faults. The debris flows are generally formed by the ‘progressive bulking’ effect in channels, and deep incision, lateral erosion, and blockage breaking are common processes that amplify the magnitude of such debris flows. Rainfall thresholds for different types of debris flow were proposed to explain the spatial differences between debris-flow regions, and the temporal variations of those thresholds highlighted how the rainfall conditions required for the occurrence of debris flows have changed. Natural vegetation recovery, reduction in the availability of solid material, and artificial debris-flow control projects play important roles in raising the threshold of the rainfall conditions required for triggering debris flows.

     

北京山区泥石流灾害预警方法研究

北京山区泥石流灾害较为频繁,总体以暴雨型沟谷泥石流为主,受地形、地貌、地质、降雨以及松散物类型等因素的影响比较明显。在调查分析北京山区泥石流灾害发育特征的基础上,从泥石流的形成和启动条件入手,对泥石流灾害的预警方法进行研究与探讨。     

Debris-flow simulations on Cheekye River, British Columbia

Cheekye River fan is the best-studied fan complex in Canada. The desire to develop portions of the fan with urban housing triggered a series of studies to estimate debris-flow risk to future residents. A recent study (Jakob and Friele 2010) provided debris-flow frequency-volume and frequency-discharge data, spanning 20-year to 10,000-year return periods that form the basis for modeling of debris flows on Cheekye River. The numerical computer model FLO-2D was chosen as a modelling tool to predict likely flow paths and to estimate debris-flow intensities for a spectrum of debris-flow return periods. The model is calibrated with the so-called Garbage Dump debris flow that occurred some 900  years ago. Field evidence suggests that the Garbage Dump debris flow has a viscous flow phase that deposited a steep-sided debris plug high in organics in centre fan, which then deflected a low-viscosity afterflow that travelled to Squamish River with slowly diminishing flow depths. The realization of a two-phase flow led to a modelling approach in which the debris-flow hydrograph was split into a high viscosity and low viscosity phase that were modelled in chronologic sequence as two separate and independent modelling runs. A perfect simulation of the Garbage Dump debris flow with modelling is not possible because the exact topography at the time of the event is, to some degree, speculative. However, runout distance, debris deposition and deposit thickness are well known and serve as a good basis for calibration. Predictive analyses using the calibrated model parameters suggest that, under existing conditions, debris flows exceeding a 50-year return period are likely to avulse onto the southern fan sector, thereby damaging existing development and infrastructure. Debris flows of several thousand years return period would inundate large portions of the fan, sever Highway 99, CN Rail, and the Squamish Valley road and would impact existing housing development on the fan. These observations suggest a need for debris-flow mitigation for existing and future development alike.     

震后深切拉槽型泥石流成因模式、暴发特点与防治:以四川九寨沟牙扎沟为例

以四川九寨沟地区牙扎沟泥石流为研究对象,通过数次野外调查及历史资料的统计,详细研究该泥石流的暴发特点、临界雨量及暴发成因,在成因模式分析的基础上提出相应的防治方案。研究结果表明:泥石流具有隐蔽性、突发性、破坏性和输沙能力较强的暴发特点;汶川地震后泥石流暴发的临界雨量仅为2008年“5·12”汶川地震前的一半,2014年至今流域未发生泥石流,临界雨量有逐渐恢复的趋势;短历时强降雨、深切拉槽式物源补给和高陡的地貌条件是泥石流暴发的根本原因;泥石流的成因模式为“降雨渗流、岩土饱水、山洪冲击、沟道深切拉槽、溯源侵蚀、冲刷淘蚀、岸坡侧蚀坍塌、悬移滚动”。这种震后 “拉槽”式泥石流治理应在提高设防标准和优化治理结构形式的同时,以控制集中区物源启动为主、拦挡为辅的防治思路为指导。研究结果可为该地区类似泥石流的防治及预警提供借鉴。     

彝良县地质灾害分布特征及防治建议

彝良县位于云南省东北部,为云南省七个地质灾害重点防治区的一部分。2003年的地质灾害调查显示,县域内有地质灾害236处,其中滑坡181处,不稳定斜坡9处,泥石流34处,地面塌陷12处,以滑坡和泥石流为主。综合研究分析结果表明,地质灾害的主要诱因除地质地理环境（地形地貌、降雨集中、岩溶作用、新构造运动强烈）等自然因素外,人类工程活动中的切坡过陡和采矿活动形成的巨大采空区也是主要诱发因素。在此基础上,根据各种影响因素的作用强度把彝良县划分为洛泽河—小米溪河高易发区、发达—洛旺中等易发区和低易发区（含小草坝亚区和龙街-奎香亚区）三个地质灾害区,并在灾害防治、协调管理、宣传教育等方面提出了一些有益的建议。      

Sedimentology of the debris-flow-dominated Warm Spring Canyon alluvial fan, Death Valley, California

Facies analysis of widely distributed exposures of the 32·6 km² and 8·1-km-long Warm Spring Canyon fan, central Death Valley, shows that it has been built principally by debris-flow deposits. These deposits were derived from a mature Panamint Range catchment mostly underlain by Precambrian mudrock, quartzite and dolomite. Stacked, clast-rich and matrix-supported debris-flow lobes of slightly bouldery, muddy, pebble–cobble gravel in beds 20–150 cm thick dominate the fan from apex to toe, accounting for 75–98% of most exposures. Interstratified with the debris flows are less abundant (2–25% of cuts), thinner (5–30 cm) and more discontinuous beds of clast-supported and imbricated, pebble–cobble gravel deposited by overland flows and gully flows. This facies formed by the surficial fine-fraction water winnowing of the debris flows primarily during recessional flood stage of the debris-flow events. Two other facies associations make up a small part of the fan. The incised-channel tract consists of a 250-m-wide clast-supported ribbon of irregularly to thickly bedded, boulder, pebble, cobble gravel nested within debris-flow deposits. This channel fill is oriented generally perpendicular to the Panamint range front. It formed by extensive erosion and winnowing of debris flows deposited within the incised channel, into which all water discharge from the catchment is funnelled. The limited presence of this facies only straddling the present incised channel indicates that this channel overall has maintained a consistent position on the fan except for slight lateral shifts, some caused by strike-slip offset. Fault offset temporarily closed the upper incised channel, causing recessional debris-flow mud to be ponded behind the dam. The other local facies assemblage consists of subrounded to rounded, moderately sorted pebble gravel in low-angle cross-beds that slope both basinwards and fanwards. This gravel was deposited in beachface, backshore and shoreface barrier-spit environments that developed where Lake Manly impinged on the Warm Spring fan during late Pleistocene time. These deposits straddle headcuts into, and were derived from, erosion of the debris-flow deposits. Wave energy sorted finer sediment from the shore zone, concentrated coarser sediment and rounded the coarse to very coarse pebble fraction by selective reworking.     

帕隆藏布江特大型泥石流的成灾模式及防治对策——以扎木镇-古乡段为例

文章通过对雅鲁藏布江的Ⅰ级支流—帕隆藏布江扎木镇-古乡段辫状水系地貌的研究,认为其与两岸支谷发育的泥石流群有关。通过对位于该河段下游的古乡沟和上游的地质弄巴泥石流特征的重点剖析,发现了特大型泥石流发育的2个重要特征,即支谷上游冰蚀围谷中赋存大量巨厚古今冰碛物和支谷中游峡谷段大型崩塌滑坡坝溃决。提出了特大型泥石流的成灾模式,并以该成灾模式解释了2000年易贡巨型滑坡堵江事件。最后,提出了基于上述成灾模式的帕隆藏布江流域特大型泥石流灾害防治的原则和方法。     

Regional debris-flow distribution and preliminary risk assessment from severe storm events in the Appalachian Blue Ridge Province,USA

Storms of high-intensity rainfall, including hurricanes, occur about once every 3 years in small areas of the mountains of the eastern United States posing a high debris-flow hazard. Reported casualties and monetary losses are often an insufficient and inadequate means for comparing the impact from debris flows. A simple GIS technique was used to characterize the distribution and density of debris flows for making a preliminary assessment of risk of impact on roads. This technique was used for comparison of three major severe storms resulting in numerous debris flows: August 10–17, 1940, near Deep Gap, North Carolina; August 19–20, 1969, in Nelson County, Virginia; and June 27, 1995, in Madison County, Virginia. Based on the criteria of the number of debris flows and area covered by debris flows, the August 19–20, 1969, Nelson County, Virginia, event was the most severe of the three storms and posed the greatest risk of debris-flow impact on roads.     

云南滇中地区地质灾害防治区划

滇中地区是云南省地质灾害的多发区之一。区内主要地质灾害类型有滑坡、泥石流、崩塌、地面塌陷及地裂缝五种。其中以滑坡和泥石流为主,灾害点分布较广且个体规模小,稳定性较差。此次通过对区内地质灾害诱因及分布现状的分析,阐述了地质灾害防治分区划分原则,将滇中地区划分为地质灾害重点防治区、次重点防治区及一般防治区三个大区,并提出了相应的防治措施。     

城市泥石流灾害预警问题探讨

随着城市灾害日益加剧,城市安全引起更广泛的关注,加强防御、控制城市泥石流灾害,增强城市综合减灾抗灾能力是泥石流减灾工作的重点。近几十年来,泥石流预警减灾的作用已得到了高度重视,探讨现代预警技术方法目的在于为城市减灾提供可靠的应急防灾对策。指出改进目前城市泥石流监测预警状况可以大大减轻泥石流暴发带来的损失。在分析国内外泥石流预警研究进展的基础上,针对目前存在的问题,提出当前城市泥石流防灾研究中应重视开展预警工作,注重将泥石流预警与形成机制、新技术方法和减灾决策系统等相结合,其中要特别加强城市数字减灾系统、城市防灾预案,以及城市风险管理和损失评估系统的综合研究。