Bias and variance of some estimators of suspended sediment load

Abstract

Walling & Webb (1981) made empirical comparisons amongst a number of methods for the estimation of suspended sediment loads. This paper presents expressions for the means and variances of three of the estimates compared by Walling & Webb, on the assumption that suspended sediment concentration, c, and mean daily discharge, q, are bivariate lognormally distributed. With this assumption, not inconsistent with the literature and with data, one of the three estimates is unbiased and the other two are biassed, the bias being an exponential function of the correlation and standard deviations in the lognormal distribution. This confirms the empirical finding of Walling & Webb and supports theoretical results of Ferguson (1987) which were established without distributional assumptions. Expressions for the variances of the three estimators of suspended sediment loads also confirm the empirical result of Walling & Webb, the unbiassed estimate having variance of order 1/n whilst the biassed estimates have variances of order 1/n².     

River suspended sediment load prediction based on river discharge information: application of newly developed data mining models

ABSTRACT

Suspended sediment load (SSL) is one of the essential hydrological processes that affects river engineering sustainability. Sediment has a major influence on the operation of dams and reservoir capacity. This investigation is aimed at exploring a new version of machine learning models (i.e. data mining), including M5P, attribute selected classifier (AS M5P), M5Rule (M5R), and K Star (KS) models for SSL prediction at the Trenton meteorological station on the Delaware River, USA. Different input scenarios were examined based on the river flow discharge and sediment load database. The performance of the applied data mining models was evaluated using various statistical metrics and graphical presentation. Among the applied data mining models, the M5P model gave a superior prediction result. The current and one-day lead time river flow and sediment load were the influential predictors for one-day-ahead SSL prediction. Overall, the applied data mining models achieved excellent predictions of the SSL process.     

Abrupt changes in the discharge and sediment load of the Pearl River,China

The abrupt changes in the streamflow and sediment load at nine hydrological stations of the Pearl River basin were systematically analysed by using the simple two‐phase linear regression scheme and the coherency analysis technique. Possible underlying causes were also discussed. Our study results indicated that abrupt changes in the streamflow occurred mainly in the early 1990s. The change points were followed by significant decreasing streamflow. Multiscale abrupt behaviour of the sediment load classified the hydrological stations into two groups: (1) Xiaolongtan, Nanning and Liuzhou; and (2) Qianjiang, Dahuangjiangkou, Wuzhou, Gaoyao, Shijiao and Boluo. The grouped categories implied obvious influences of water reservoirs on the hydrological processes of the Pearl River. On the basis of analysis of the locations and the construction time of the water reservoirs, and also the time when the change points occurred, we figured out different ways the water reservoirs impacted the hydrological processes within the Pearl River basin. As for the hydrological variation along the mainstream of the Pearl River, the water reservoirs have considerable influences on both the streamflow and sediment load variations; however, more influences seemed to be exerted on the sediment load transport. In the North River, the hydrological processes seemed to be influenced mainly by climate changes. In the East River, the hydrological variations tended to be impacted by the water reservoirs. The study results also indicated no fixed modes when we address the influences of water reservoirs on hydrological processes. Drainage area and regulation behaviour of the water reservoirs should be taken into account. The results of this study will be of considerable importance for the effective water resources management of the Pearl River basin under the changing environment. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Temporal variation of suspended sediment load in the Pearl River due to human activities

Data on sediment flux at three hydrologic stations from the 1950s to 2006 are utilized to study the decadal,annual,and monthly variations in suspended sediment load delivered from the Pearl River to the ocean.Results show that variations in sediment flux from three main tributaries,including the West River,the North River and the East River,are spatially non-uniform.Since nearly 90%of the suspended sediment load comes from the West River,its variation has dominated the overall tendency of sediment flux in the entire Pearl River.Although a significant decreasing trend exists in the annual variation of the total sediment flux,the decadal change can be divided into an increasing phase and a decreasing phase,with the turning point between the two phases in the late 1980s.From the 1950s to the 1980s,the average annual river sediment flux increased by 30.43%.However,sediment flux has decreased significantly since the 1990s,with the average sediment flux being 38.60%less in the 2000s than that in the 1950s.The current sediment flux is also 52.93%less than its peak in the 1980s. The monthly variation pattern of the suspended sediment load transport to the sea is more interesting. For the West River,all months show a decreasing trend,and for most months the reduction values are significant.However,for the East River the sediment load shows a decrease trend in the dry season and an increase trend in the wet season.The method of regression analysis was used to study the influence of precipitation in the variation on the sediment flux.It was found that the climate change is not the main driving force behind the variation in suspended sediment load.Before the 1990s, intensive land use destroyed the vulnerable ecosystem of the upper Pearl River,and speeded up the process of rocky desertification.Consequently,aggravated soil erosion caused an increase in suspended sediment load.However,sediment retention within reservoirs had begun to play a dominant role after the massive construction of large dams after 1990,and resulted in a decrease in the suspended sediment load delivered to the ocean.     

Real-time prediction of the peak suspended sediment concentration and sediment yield of the Lao-Nung River during storms

Based on rainfall erosion of soil and suspended sediment transport in storm events, a method is proposed to predict peak suspended sediment concentration and suspended sediment yield in watersheds based on rainfall characteristics prior to peak rainfall intensity. The rainfall characteristics factors that dominate peak suspended sediment concentration C_p are rainfall erosion factor R_ef, first peak rainfall intensity of area-average rainfall i_p1 and antecedent precipitation index I_ap; the rainfall characteristics factors that dominate suspended sediment yield Y_ss in storm events are total rainfall P, suspended sediment yield factor R_sf and antecedent precipitation index I_ap. This research focuses on watersheds in Liau-Kwei observation station along Lao-Nung River in southern Taiwan as the research object, and adopts the PSED-model to simulate the discharge hydrograph, suspended sediment concentration hydrograph and suspended sediment yield in 11 storm events for analysis. The analytical results show that there is a good correlation between the above-mentioned rainfall characteristics factors and C_p as well as Y_ss, thus enabling C_p and Y_ss to be predicted by using Expressions (13) and (14). These two expressions are utilized to predict C_p and Y_ss of Typhoon Morakot in 2009, and the results are compared with those from simulation by using the PSED-model. The result of comparison shows there is a good capability in predicting. For the watersheds where it is necessary to predict C_p and Y_ss of a storm event for the benefit of effective operation of water resource facilities, the aforesaid rainfall characteristics factors can be utilized to establish applicable models for prediction.     

Evolution of the Juan Fernandez microplate during the last three million years

During the spring of 1983, the R/V “Thomas Washington” surveyed an area located north of the Antarctic-Nazca-Pacific triple junction at 35°S.Magnetic and SEABEAM bathymetric data collected during the survey confirmed the existence of the Juan Fernandez microplate. This paper presents an analysis of the magnetic anomaly data.The western boundary of the microplate is a fast spreading center which has existed since 2 Ma and where the accretion rate has been about 14.5 cm/yr for the last 0.7 Ma.The eastern boundary of the microplate is characterized by a slow spreading center which separates the Juan Fernandez and Nazca plates. The accretion rate has been about 7.0 cm/yr between 0.7 and 0.4 Ma and about 1.6 cm/yr for the last 0.4 Ma.The two spreading centers are connected in the north and south by transform faults.Between the Juan Fernandez and Rapanui microplates, the East Pacific Rise is well defined between 30 and 32°S. In this region the axis displays a record accretion of about 17.2 cm/yr.South of the Juan Fernandez microplate, one magnetic profile (Oceano 7008) indicates that the opening rate is about 12.0 cm/yr on the Antarctic-Pacific ridge.The birth of the microplate is dated at about 2 Ma when the western boundary started to accrete. The evolution of the microplate corresponds to a transfer of accretion from the eastern boundary to the western axis. This is revealed by the net decrease of the opening rate from 7.0 cm/yr to 1.6 cm/yr observed at the eastern ridge where a small jump occurred at 0.4 Ma.     

Magnitude and variation in the contribution of bank erosion to the suspended sediment load of the River Severn,UK

The wide range of studies describing the role of bank erosion in fluvial sediment supply have mostly lumped amounts of bank erosion into coarse temporal units, such as years. This paper investigates sediment yields from individual bank erosion events within the upper River Severn, UK (basin area 380 km²). Manual erosion pins and photo-electronic erosion pins were used to estimate bank erosion, and turbidity meters were used to determine suspended sediment transport. At the annual time-scale, the silt-clay fraction of bank-derived sediment accounted for an equivalent of 17 per cent of the suspended load, increasing to an average of 38 per cent at the monthly timescale, and then to an average of 64 per cent at the event timescale. This research highlighted that for an upland catchment, bank erosion was an important supply of suspended sediment, and that for some flood events bank erosion can supply more sediment than is transported. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Lake Ladoga ice phenology: Mean condition and extremes during the last 65 years

Winter conditions play an important role for the largest lake in Europe—Lake Ladoga. The ice cover lasts for 171 ± 3 days on average from the early November until the mid‐May. We investigated the ice regime of Lake Ladoga using a constructed ice database of aircraft surveys and satellite images. More than 1250 surveys of the lake's ice cover from 1943 to 2010 were collected and analysed to determine mean and extreme ice conditions for winters of different types of severity. The time series of ice cover percentage over the lake was plotted. On average, 18 observational ice charts were made every winter. Individual ice phenology records show considerable year‐to‐year variation. For this reason, records typically have been combined and analysed as groups (categories). Extremely cold winters were determined as winters with complete ice cover that lasts more than three months which is approximately 90% quartiles from all winters with complete ice cover. The lake surface was completely covered with ice for more than three months during 5 seasons. Extremely warm winters when the maximum ice cover was less than 70% of the lake area occurred during 5 seasons as well. A basic relationship between the winter severity as winter maximum of accumulated freezing degree‐days (AFDD) and the earlier derived Relative Ice Cover Index (RICI) was established. We have used teleconnection indices such as North Atlantic Oscillations (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) for the period from October to May for estimation of different types of Lake Ladoga's ice conditions. The AO index in winter months and local winter maximum of AFDD explained much of the interannual variation in ice cover. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Recent changes of water discharge and sediment load from Feiyun River in Zhejiang Province,China

In-depth studies of water and sediment fluxes from rivers into the sea are very important for understanding the interactions between land and sea. This paper is concerned with identifying the changes in the time series of water and sediment fluxes from Feiyun River in Zhejiang Province, China. Inter- and intraannual variability in the water discharge and sediment load of the Feiyun River into the sea are analyzed using the observed data of runoff (1956–2008) and sediment (1957–2008) at Xuekou Station, which is in the main channel. The results show that there is a good peak–valley correlation between the water discharge and sediment load, and there are obvious seasonal variations, with a 65.7% water discharge and 89.2% sediment load during the flooding periods. Water discharge is mainly controlled by natural rainfall, but the construction of the upstream reservoirs in 1997 increased the discharge amount in the dry season and decreased the amount in the flooding season. Sediment loads were reduced after a huge flood in 1990 and construction of upstream reservoirs, while the latter also decreased the sediment load during the typhoon flooding period. Furthermore, the correlation between water discharge and sediment load is also affected by the flood and reservoir construction. There are some differences in the regression equations of sediment load and water discharge for 1957–1989, 1991–1996, and 1997–2008.     

Nutrient,heavy metal and organic pollutant composition of suspended and bed sediments in the Rhone River

The environmental quality of the Rhone River (Switzerland-France) has been assessed with a geochemical survey of the pollutants bound to suspended sediments. Ten samples were collected between Lake Geneva and the Mediterranean Sea in Nobember 1989 by continuous flow centrifugation and analysed for grain size distribution, carbonate, organic C, N, forms of particulate P, trace metals, and organic compounds (chlorobenzenes, organochlorine pesticides, PCBs, and PAHs). Four bed sediment samples were also studied for comparative purposes. The suspended solids provide lower variance by parameter than the bed sediments and are clearly most suitable for synoptic monitoring.The Upper Rhone River carries a glacial derived sediment with a low nutrient content, the stretch from Geneva to Lyon provides a sediment dominated by carbonate, and in the Lower Rhone the organic matter and phosphorus are relatively increased, mainly due to wastewater effluents and to an industrial P source. High concentrations of metals and organic micropollutants downstream of Lyon indicate a multiple contamination in the Lower Rhone, whereas more specific inputs are located downstream of Geneva and Arles.The comparison with data from other polluted major systems, the Rhine, the Niagara and the Detroit rivers, shows on overall similarity confirming that the Rhone quality is degraded downstream of Lyon. The levels of particular concern are for Hg, DDT metabolites which reveal a recent release in the basin, PCBs with a likely high chlorine content, and PAHs.The statistical evaluation of the compositional variables indicates a limited number of well defined associations, suggesting that the contamination of the suspended sediments results from the combination of numerous and intermittent point and diffuse sources in the Rhone River basin.     

Regional difference of annual precipitation and discharge variation over west China during the last 50 years

Using annual precipitation and discharge data measured in the past five decades,this paper analyzed the regional differences over west China in terms of climate and discharge variations,and investigated the relationship between the regional characteristics and the activities of South and East Asian sum-mer monsoon. Results revealed that the precipitation and discharge in the upper reaches of the Yellow River (Central West China) have a negative correlation with those in Xinjiang (northwest China) and the Yarlung Zangbo River (the upper reaches of the Brahmaputra Rive,southwest China) regions. The geographical patterns of precipitation and discharge variations are different over west China,i.e. the regional climate displays the alteration of dry-wet-dry or wet-dry-wet from north to south in west China. The negative correlation of annual discharges between Xinjiang and the upper reaches of the Yellow River is found statistically significant in the decadal scale,and that between the Yarlung Zangbo River and the upper reaches of the Yellow River is found active in the interannual scale. The regional char-acteristics indicate that the discharge/precipitation variations in the upper reaches of the Yellow River are dominated by the East Asian summer monsoon while their variations in Xinjiang are affected by both the west wind and East Asian summer monsoon.     

Magnitude‐frequency characteristics of effective discharge for suspended sediment transport,Fraser River,British Columbia,Canada

This study analyses archival discharge and sediment concentration data (1965–1988), monitored by Water Survey of Canada, to examine suspended sediment transport rates and their relationship to effective discharge (Q_eff) based on daily discharge duration curves. Effective discharge was determined as the mid‐point of the discharge class transporting the greatest portion of the suspended sediment load (hence class‐based Q_eff). Results showed that the concept of effective discharge was applicable to the Fraser River basin where the average class‐based Q_eff occurred during 8·4% of the study period with individual values ranging from 0·03% to 16·1%. The durations of effective discharge classes ranged from 0·02% to 19·6% while the transport of 50% of total sediment loads ranged from 3% to 22% with an average of 14% of the time. Equations for predicting the class‐based Q_eff in the Fraser River basin from bankfull discharge and drainage area are presented. The observed variations among stations in sediment‐discharge regimes based on subjectively selected 20 discharge classes, seem to reflect the influence of sediment controlling factors such as geology, physiography, catchment size and land use practice in the basin. Future directions of research on applications of the effective discharge concept are explored. As a solution to the problem of lack of an objective method for determining the effective discharge, the effective discharge should be determined from event based assessments of sediment transport (event‐based Q_eff), avoiding any subjectivity in the selection of number of discharge classes used for its determination. In conclusion, it is proposed that continued use of the conventional method of determining Q_eff should cease. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Short‐term discharge and suspended sediment fluctuations in the proglacial Skeldal River,north‐east Greenland

The summer discharge pattern of the Skeldal River, which drains a 560 km² partly glacierized catchment in north‐east Greenland, is dominated by diurnal oscillations reflecting variations in the melt rate of snow and ice in the basin. Superimposed on this diurnal pattern are numerous short‐lived discharge fluctuations of irregular periodicity and magnitude. The larger fluctuations are described and attributed to both rainfall events and periodic collapse of the glacier margin damming flow from beneath the Skelbrae glacier. Other minor fluctuations are less readily explained but are associated with changes in the channelized and distributed reservoirs and possibly temporary blockage of subglacial conduits caused by ice melt with subsequent damming. Fluctuations in suspended sediment concentration (SSC) are normally associated with discharge fluctuations, although examples of ‘transient flushes’ were observed where marked increases in SSC occurred in the absence of corresponding discharge variations. A strong relationship between the event discharge increase and event SSC increase for rainfall‐induced events was established, but no such relationship existed for non‐rainfall‐induced events. There is some evidence for an exhaustion effect in the SSC patterns both at the event time‐scale and as the month proceeds. A mean suspended sediment load of 1765 ± 0·26 t day^?1 was estimated for the study period, which would be equivalent to a suspended sediment yield of 732 ± 4 t km^?2 year^?1. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

近200年来黑河下游天鹅湖湖泊沉积记录的环境变迁

根据2002-2004年洞庭湖水质监测数据,参照GB3838-2002中Ⅲ类水质标准,选用内梅罗水污染指数法和黄浦江污染指数对洞庭湖水质现状进行评价,结果表明:(1)洞庭湖水体的主要污染指标是总磷,总氮和粪大肠菌群;(2)黄浦江污染指数平均值为0．27,所以洞庭湖12个断面水质无黑臭现象发生;(3)枯水期西洞庭湖和南洞庭湖水质污染最严重,平水期西洞庭湖水质污染最严重,洞庭湖丰水期的污染程度小于平水期;(4)洞庭湖的大部分水体的水质主要处于轻度污染的状态,局部水体的水质在枯水期达到重污染的状态．     

近1200 a来黄河下游梁山泊沉积记录的环境变迁

利用梁山泊670 cm柱状岩芯沉积物,基于精确的AMS-~(14)C年代测定,通过高分辨率的粒度、磁化率、总有机碳、C/N比值等环境代用指标的综合分析,并结合历史文献记载,初步揭示了1200 a来黄河下游地区平原湖泊沉积特征及环境演化历史.结果表明,梁山泊环境演化大致分为5个阶段:790-940 AD期间,为低湖面的沼泽沉积环境,气候冷干;940-1215 AD期间,屡次受到黄河决溢洪水影响,湖盆扩张,湖泊水位上升,为梁山泊极盛期,气候暖湿;1215-1310 AD期间,黄河夺淮入黄海,湖区淤积严重,湖泊萎缩减小;1310-1470 AD期间,再次受到黄河决溢洪水影响,水位上升,面积扩张,但逊于极盛期;1470 AD至现代,黄河河道进一步南移,远离梁山泊,湖盆淤积抬高,梁山泊最终消失,直到1855AD,黄河第6次大改道北移,湖泊再次受到黄河洪水影响,由于前期受到泥沙淤积抬高,该地区仅作为黄河泥沙承载区.在气候变化大背景下,黄河改道决溢是梁山泊演化的主因.     

Relative velocities of discharge and sediment waves for the River Severn,UK

Abstract

It is generally accepted that the celerity of a discharge wave exceeds that of a floodwave. The discharge wave is the initial wavefront (shown by an increase in stage at a particular site), whereas the floodwave refers to the body of water moving downstream. Yet, few studies have investigated the varying relationship between discharge and suspended sediment concentration as floods propagate downstream. This paper examines the relative velocities of the discharge and sediment waves for natural flood events on the River Severn, UK. Four monitoring stations were established within the upper 35 km reach of the River Severn (drainage basin area 380 km2). Discharge was monitored using fixed structures, and suspended sediment concentrations were monitored at similar locations using Partech IR40C turbidity meters. Results showed discharge wave celerity increased with flood magnitude, but relationships were more complex for sediment wave celerity. Sediment wave celerity was greater than discharge wave celerity, and is attributed to the dominant source of sediment, which is most probably bank erosion.     

基于时间序列MODIS影像的鄱阳湖丰水期悬浮泥沙浓度反演及变化

悬浮泥沙浓度是描述水质的重要参数之一,获得其在空间和时间上的分布信息对于理解、管理和保护湖泊生态系统是必要的.此研究旨在建立基于中分辨率成像光谱仪(MODIS)影像的鄱阳湖悬浮泥沙浓度反演模型,并利用建立的模型反演2000-2007年鄱阳湖丰水期的悬浮泥沙浓度,分析其在时间和空间上的变化特征并对引起这些变化的原因进行讨论.研究结果揭示:MODIS Terra影像红波段与悬浮泥沙浓度具有显著的相关性(R2=0.92,s.e.=12.02mg/L,F=154.30,P<0.001),可以用于鄱阳湖丰水期悬浮泥沙浓度的反演;自2000-2007年间,鄱阳湖悬浮泥沙浓度呈明显的时间和空间分布特征,在南部水体悬浮泥沙浓度无明显变化,在北部呈增加趋势,而中部水体泥沙浓度波动较大;鄱阳湖北部的采砂活动是导致此区域悬浮泥沙浓度增加的主要原因,其与长江江水倒灌鄱阳湖共同作用引起鄱阳湖中部泥沙浓度的波动,抚河、信江和饶河输沙量的非显著变化也导致南部鄱阳湖水体悬浮泥沙浓度的非显著变化.     

Geospatial-temporal analysis of land-use changes in the Yellow River Delta during the last 40 years

Research on land use/land cover changes (LUCC)has been the core project of the Global EnvironmentalChanges since the 1990s[1—6]. Scientists at home andabroad have been laying emphasis on integrationstudies on land-use change by “space and process”features[7—10] as researches on LUCC are in a greatdeal. It is of paramount important for us to studyLUCC at various spatial-temporal scales and build aquantitative assessment of land-use conversion by in-tegrated spatial-temporal features. …     

Channel sedimentation and erosion of the Jiangsu reach of the Yangtze River during the last 44 years

River channel sedimentation in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River can be affected by both changes in sea level and changes in solid discharge from the upper river. To evaluate dynamic changes of sedimentation and erosion in the Jiangsu reach of the Yangtze River (about 330 km in length) from 1959 to 2003, databases were designed and constructed using a digital elevation model (DEM) of channel topography based on the Jiangsu River Relief Map for 1959, 1970, 1985, 1992, and 2003. The results indicated that the main course of the Yangtze River in Jiangsu Province had experienced an obvious switch from sedimentation to erosion status around 1985 because of the decreasing amount of solid load from the upper parts of the river channel after that year. The sedimentation process in the main course of the Jiangsu reach of the Yangtze River demonstrated the propulsive process of ‘downstream‐ward aggradations.’ Between 1985 and 2003, the erosion rate of the lower segment was greater than those of the middle and upper segments; this is probably because both channel flow and tide current had influenced the lower segment. When channel flow combines with tide current in the same direction, channel erosion can be intensified, especially if there is a solid load shortage in the channel. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

黄河上游近60年水沙变化特征及其影响因素

由于受人类活动及气候变化影响,黄河上游干流水沙特征发生显著变化。为探究黄河上游水沙变化情况,基于黄河上游5个水文站1964-2019年水沙、遥感影像等数据,利用Mann-Kendall检验法、滑动t检验法、累积距平曲线和双累积曲线等突变检验方法和小波分析法,对黄河上游水沙变化特征进行研究。利用水沙关系曲线及线性回归法等方法估算人类活动和气候对水沙变化的贡献率,并着重讨论梯级水库建设及土地利用变化对水沙的影响。结果表明:1)黄河上游玛曲-小川段流域内降雨量和径流量变化幅度不明显,贵德站、循化站、小川站1986-2019年年均输沙量分别减至1964-1985年的9.8%、24.6%、38.8%,输沙量大大减少。黄河上游玛曲-小川段径流量突变多在1986年,输沙量突变多在1969、1986、2004年,径流量存在8、16、22 a周期,输沙量存在4~8、18~21、27 a周期。2)1969年后,河流输沙能力增强,水沙关系显著改变。在不同时段内,人类活动对径流量变化在1987-2019年贡献率为66.3%,对输沙量变化在1970-1986、1987-2004、2005-2019年的贡献率为72.96%、70.73%、69.7%。人类活动对黄河上游干流水沙影响占据主导因素。3)刘家峡水库淤积最为严重,单库运行期水库淤积量为2.39亿t,排沙比变化范围为1.39%~10.7%。梯级水库联调使得径流量在1964-2004年间减少47.8%,1964-2019年间梯级水库减沙94.8%,梯级水库对输沙量影响远大于对径流量的影响。4)1980-2020年间,草地面积增加了1880.03 km²,增幅3.1%,有利于减少输沙量,草地拦沙效益大于截流效益。