Correlation between the near-Earth solar wind parameters and the source surface magnetic field

The solar magnetic field B _s at the Earth’s projection onto the solar-wind source surface has been calculated for each day over a long time interval (1976–2004). These data have been compared with the daily mean solar wind (SW) velocities and various components of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) near the Earth. The statistical analysis has revealed a rather close relationship between the solar-wind parameters near the Sun and near the Earth in the periods without significant sporadic solar and interplanetary disturbances. Empirical numerical models have been proposed for calculating the solar-wind velocity, IMF intensity, and IMF longitudinal and B _z components from the solar magnetic data. In all these models, the B _s value plays the main role. It is shown that, under quiet or weakly disturbed conditions, the variations in the geomagnetic activity index Ap can be forecasted for 3–5 days ahead on the basis of solar magnetic observations. Such a forecast proves to be more reliable than the forecasts based on the traditional methods.     

Relationship between the IMF azimuthal angle and solar wind velocity

The relationship between the IMF azimuthal angle and plasma velocity has been studied independently for three types of solar wind streams (recurrent and transient high-speed streams and low-speed background wind) based on the interplanetary medium parameters measured in the near-Earth orbits in 1964–1996. The relationships between the IMF azimuthal angle cotangent and plasma velocity are close to linear but strongly differ from one another and from the theoretical relationship for all types of streams. These differences area caused by the magnetic field disturbance on the time scales smaller than a day, and the effect of this disturbance has been studied quantitatively. The effective periods of rotation of the IMF sources on the Sun, depending on the solar cycle phase, have been obtained from the relations between the IMF azimuthal angle cotangent and plasma velocity. During the most part of the solar cycle, the periods of rotation of the IMF sources are close to the period of rotation of the solar equator but abruptly increase to the values typical of the solar circumpolar zones in the years of solar minimums.     

Solar connections of geoeffective magnetic structures

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and high-speed solar wind streams (HSS) are two solar phenomena that produce large-scale structures in the interplanetary (IP) medium. CMEs evolve into interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) and the HSS result in corotating interaction regions (CIRs) when they interact with preceding slow solar wind. This paper summarizes the properties of these structures and describes their geoeffectiveness. The primary focus is on the intense storms of solar cycle 23 because this is the first solar cycle during which simultaneous, extensive, and uniform data on solar, IP, and geospace phenomena exist. After presenting illustrative examples of coronal holes and CMEs, I discuss the internal structure of ICMEs, in particular the magnetic clouds (MCs). I then discuss how the magnetic field and speed correlate in the sheath and cloud portions of ICMEs. CME speed measured near the Sun also has significant correlations with the speed and magnetic field strengths measured at 1 AU. The dependence of storm intensity on MC, sheath, and CME properties is discussed pointing to the close connection between solar and IP phenomena. I compare the delay time between MC arrival at 1 AU and the peak time of storms for the cloud and sheath portions and show that the internal structure of MCs leads to the variations in the observed delay times. Finally, we examine the variation of solar-source latitudes of IP structures as a function of the solar cycle and find that they have to be very close to the disk center.     

行星际扰动对地磁活动的影响

利用第23太阳活动周中WIND和ACE资料,统计分析行星际扰动对不同水平地磁活动的影响,研究磁暴强度与不同行星际参数之间的相关性,结果发现:①从长期来看,地磁活动指数Dst与太阳风速度的相关性最好,相关性在太阳活动谷年时最高;②多磁暴时序叠加结果证实了导致小、中、强磁暴开始的经验行星际南向磁场条件,磁暴过程中行星际磁场...     

Prediction of relativistic electron flux in the Earth’s outer radiation belt at geostationary orbit by adaptive methods

The paper investigates the possibilities of the prediction of the time series of the flux of relativistic electrons in the Earth’s outer radiation belt by parameters of the solar wind and the interplanetary magnetic field measured at the libration point and by the values of the geomagnetic indices. Different adaptive methods are used (namely, artificial neural networks, group method of data handling, and projection to latent structures). The comparison of quality indicators of predictions with a horizon of 1–12 h between each other and with the trivial model prediction has shown that the best result is obtained for the average value of the responses of three neural networks that have been trained with different sets of initial weights. The prediction result of the group method of data handling is close to the result of neural networks, and the projection to latent structures is much worse. It is shown that an increase in the prediction horizon from 1 to 12 h reduces its quality but not dramatically, which makes it possible to use these methods for medium-term prediction.     

Parameters influencing the growth and decay of the regular part of the AE index

The statistical behavior of the AE index, which describes the intensity of auroral electrojets, has been studied using hourly data. It has been shown that the AE index depends on the solar wind parameters as well as on its own value in the preceding hour. This makes it possible to describe the AE index behavior by the first-order inhomogeneous differential equation. The index growth rate is proportional mainly to the southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). The timescale of the breakup of the currents responsible for the index is approximately 2 h. A similarity in the time variations in the AE and Dst indices has been referred to. The empirical formulas, which make it possible to restore the missing values of the IMF southward component from the available AE or Dst indices, have been proposed.     

Manifestation of 22-year solar magnetic cycle in the imbalance between positive and negative photospheric magnetic fluxes

Time variations in strong and weak photospheric magnetic fields have been considered based on synoptic maps from the Kitt Peak observatory for 1976?C2003. The magnetic fields of positive and negative polarities of the Northern and Southern hemispheres of the Sun and their imbalance were studied. It has been indicated that different groups of magnetic fields vary with 11-or 22-year periods depending on their values. The difference between positive and negative fluxes for each hemisphere always varies with a 22-year period. For weak fields, the 22-year cycle is related to the manifestation of the global solar magnetic field. For strong fields, the imbalance between positive and negative fluxes reflects the predominant role of leading sunspots in a given solar hemisphere. It has been detected that the total magnetic flux over the entire solar disk varies with an 11-year period in antiphase with the solar activity cycle for the weakest magnetic fields (0?C5 G).     

Forecast of the solar wind velocity and the interplanetary magnetic field radial component polarity at the phase of decay of solar cycle 23

The solar wind velocity and polarity of the B _x-component of the interplanetary magnetic field have been analyzed for the first eight months of 2005. The interplanetary magnetic field had a four-sector structure, which persisted during nine Carrington rotations. Three stable clusters of a high-speed solar wind stream and one cluster of a low-speed stream were observed during one solar rotation. These clusters were associated with the interplanetary magnetic field sectors. The predicted solar wind velocity was calculated since July 2005 one month ahead as an average over several preceding Carrington rotations. The polarity of the B _x-component of the interplanetary magnetic field was predicted in a similar way based on the concept of the sector structure of the magnetic field and its relation to maxima of the solar wind velocity. The results indicate a satisfactory agreement of the forecast for two rotations ahead in July–August 2005 and pronounced violation of agreement for the next rotation due to a sudden reconfiguration of the solar corona and strong sporadic processes in September 2005.     

Long-Term Changes in the Number and Magnitude of Forbush-Effects

The IZMIRAN database of Forbush effects and interplanetary disturbances has been used to study long-term changes in the number and magnitude of Forbush effects in the last six solar cycles (1957–2016) for cosmic rays of rigidity of 10 GV. Solar activity cycles have been shown to be well expressed in data of Forbush effects, especially in large magnitude events that almost disappear in minima. The changes in the distribution of Forbush effects and the decrease in their average values from solar activity maximum to minimum are explained by the predominance of cosmic-ray variations due to the action of coronal holes at low activity. It should be noted that the current cycle involves fewer and generally weaker Forbush effects than in the previous five cycles. For each month, an FD index combining the magnitude and number of Forbush effects and convenient for studying long-term variations has been proposed and calculated.     

The Ionospheric foF2 Data over Istanbul and their Response to Solar Activity for the Years 1964–1969 and 1993

A Polish-made vertical ionosonde (VI) has been operated at the Kandilli Observatory in Istanbul, for almost one year (May 1993 - April 1994) as part of the COST 238, PRIME Project, The critical frequencies were obtained for every half-hour interval. The data obtained during this campaign, on the descending branch of solar cycle 22, and the data measured earlier in Istanbul for cycle 20 were analysed and the characteristic behaviour of the F2 region ionosphere over Istanbul has been determined. This is a unique data set for this area. Several markers of the solar cycle activities in terms of the daily relative sunspot numbers, F10.7 cm solar radio flux and solar flare index, and the magnetic daily index of Ap were then used to seek the possible influence of the solar and ionospheric activities on the critical frequencies observed in Istanbul. It was found that the solar flare index, as a solar activity index, was more reliable in determining quiet ionospheric days. It is shown that the minimum and maximum time values of the solar activity are more convenient for ionospheric prediction and modelling.     

日面方位磁场扰动和行星际磁场螺旋结构

文采用球坐标下2.5维理想MHD模型,对日球子午面内方位磁场扰动的传播进行数值模拟,重点分析它对行星际磁场螺旋角的影响. 本文认为,观测到的行星际磁场螺旋角大于Parker模型的预言值,是太阳表面不断向行星际发出同向方位磁场扰动的结果;太阳较差自转在太阳内部产生的方位磁场为这类扰动提供了源头. 模拟结果表明,采用持续时间等于周期的十分之一、扰动幅度为103nT量级的正向方位磁场扰动,就可使1 AU处行星际磁场的螺旋角增加2°左右,与有关观测结果相符. 模拟结果还表明,上述方位磁场扰动对日球子午面内的太阳风特性和磁场位形的影响基本上可以忽略.     

Poleward expansion of the westward electrojet depending on the solar wind and IMF parameters

The effect of the interplanetary parameters on the latitudinal position of the substorm westward electrojet is studied in the work. The data from the IMAGE chain of magnetic stations and POLAR and WIND satellites for the period close to the solar activity minimum (1995–1996) and for the period of the solar activity maximum (2000) have been used for this purpose. It has been indicated that the electrojet poleward edge reaches, on average, higher latitudes at a higher solar wind velocity and at a larger (B _s ) IMF southward component. It has been indicated that the average latitude of the westward electrojet center increases with increasing solar wind velocity and decreases with increasing IMF southward component, as a result of which the electrojet center is, specifically, not observed at high geomagnetic latitudes at large values of the IMF southward component.     

Large-scale LF electromagnetic waves in the Earth’s magnetosheath

The model equations describing the dynamics of the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field in the dayside Earth’s magnetosheath have been studied. The large-scale flow structure near the critical point of the magnetosphere is determined in an approximation of the Chaplygin stagnation zone identified with the magnetosheath focal part. It has been indicated that magnetic gradient waves (MGWs), which represent a special branch of ULF electromagnetic oscillations of the magnetospheric resonator, can be generated in a magnetized plasma in the case when the magnetic field distribution is spatially inhomogeneous. The characteristic frequencies, periods, phase velocities, wavelengths, and amplitudes of MGW magnetic pulsations have been determined.     

Comparative outline of the region of interaction of the solar wind with the Ionosphere of Venus and Mars

The general features of the region of interaction of the solar wind with the ionosphere of Venus and Mars are compared using data obtained with the Mariner 5 and the Pioneer Venus Orbiter (PVO) spacecraft for Venus and with the Phobos II, the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) and the Mars Express spacecraft for Mars. Despite the overall weak intrinsic global magnetic field that is present in both planets there are significant differences in the manner in which the interplanetary magnetic field accumulates and is organized around and within their ionosphere. Such differences are unrelated to the crustal magnetic field remnants inferred from the MGS measurements around Mars. In fact, while in Venus and Mars there is a region in which the magnetic field becomes enhanced as it piles up in their plasma environment it is shown that such a region exhibits different regimes with respect to changes in the ion composition measured outside and within the ionosphere. At Venus the region of enhanced magnetic field intensity occurs in general above the ionopause which represents the boundary across which there is a change in the ion composition with dominant solar wind protons above and planetary O⁺ ions below. At Mars the region of enhanced magnetic field is located below a magnetic pileup boundary across which there is also a comparable change in the ion composition (solar wind protons above and planetary O⁺ ions below). It is argued that this difference in the relative position of the region of enhanced magnetic field with respect to that of a plasma boundary that separates different ion populations results from the peculiar response of the ionosphere of each planet to the oncoming solar wind dynamic pressure. While at Venus the peak ionospheric thermal pressure is in general sufficient to withhold the incident solar wind kinetic pressure there is a different response in Mars where the peak ionospheric thermal pressure is in general not large enough to deviate the solar wind. In this latter case the ionosphere is unable to force the solar wind to move around the ionosphere and as a result the oncoming electron population can reach low altitudes where it is influenced by neutral atmospheric particles (the solar wind proton population is replaced at the magnetic pileup boundary which marks the upper extent of the region where the interplanetary magnetic field becomes enhanced). Peculiar conditions are expected near the magnetic polar regions and over the terminator plane where the solar wind is directed along the sides of the planet.     

Cycle Variations in the Photospheric and Interplanetary Magnetic Field and Solar Wind Parameters

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - The influence of cycle changes in the polar and nonpolar photospheric magnetic fields on variations in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and the solar wind...     

The structure and origin of magnetic clouds in the solar wind

Plasma and magnetic field data from the Helios 1/2 spacecraft have been used to investigate the structure of magnetic clouds (MCs) in the inner heliosphere. 46 MCs were identified in the Helios data for the period 1974–1981 between 0.3 and 1 AU. 85% of the MCs were associated with fast-forward interplanetary shock waves, supporting the close association between MCs and SMEs (solar mass ejections). Seven MCs were identified as direct consequences of Helios-directed SMEs, and the passage of MCs agreed with that of interplanetary plasma clouds (IPCs) identified as white-light brightness enhancements in the Helios photometer data. The total (plasma and magnetic field) pressure in MCs was higher and the plasma- lower than in the surrounding solar wind. Minimum variance analysis (MVA) showed that MCs can best be described as large-scale quasi-cylindrical magnetic flux tubes. The axes of the flux tubes usually had a small inclination to the ecliptic plane, with their azimuthal direction close to the east-west direction. The large-scale flux tube model for MCs was validated by the analysis of multi-spacecraft observations. MCs were observed over a range of up to 60° in solar longitude in the ecliptic having the same magnetic configuration. The Helios observations further showed that over-expansion is a common feature of MCs. From a combined study of Helios, Voyager and IMP data we found that the radial diameter of MCs increases between 0.3 and 4.2 AU proportional to the distance, R, from the Sun as R^0.8 (R in AU). The density decrease inside MCs was found to be proportional to R^–2.4, thus being stronger compared to the average solar wind. Four different magnetic configurations, as expected from the flux-tube concept, for MCs have been observed in situ by the Helios probes. MCs with left-and right-handed magnetic helicity occurred with about equal frequencies during 1974–1981, but surprisingly, the majority (74%) of the MCs had a south to north (SN) rotation of the magnetic field vector relative to the ecliptic. In contrast, an investigation of solar wind data obtained near Earths orbit during 1984–1991 showed a preference for NS-clouds. A direct correlation was found between MCs and large quiescent filament disappearances (disparition brusques, DBs). The magnetic configurations of the filaments, as inferred from the orientation of the prominence axis, the polarity of the overlying field lines and the hemispheric helicity pattern observed for filaments, agreed well with the in situ observed magnetic structure of the associated MCs. The results support the model of MCs as large-scale expanding quasi-cylindrical magnetic flux tubes in the solar wind, most likely caused by SMEs associated with eruptions of large quiescent filaments. We suggest that the hemispheric dependence of the magnetic helicity structure observed for solar filaments can explain the preferred orientation of MCs in interplanetary space as well as their solar cycle behavior. However, the white-light features of SMEs and the measured volumes of their interplanetary counterparts suggest that MCs may not simply be just H-prominences, but that SMEs likely convect large-scale coronal loops overlying the prominence axis out of the solar atmosphere.     

Considerations regarding solar and lunar modulation of geophysical parameters,atmospheric electricity and thunderstorms

Summary The basic thesis of this paper is that the proper scope of meteorology should include, besides the earth's atmosphere, the sun's atmosphere (the solar corona), the associated interplanetary magnetic field, and lunar modulation of this environment. Recent advances in space science have enabled us to make direct measurements in this region for the first time. The shape and characteristics of the magnetosphere have been completely redefined during the last ten years from a simple magnetic dipole to the present model with an elongated tail stretched out by the solar wind. The interplanetary magnetic field has been defined with its spiral structure and sectors tied into the solar surface. This provides a magnetic link between the sun and earth. It is probable that extra-terrestrial factors do play a role in regulating weather, although the extent of this influence remains to be determined. Possibly such effects are most significant or easily detectable in the realm of atmospheric electricity. In view of the limitations in our present knowledge of all the variables responsible for regulating weather, it would seem appropriate to pursue the study of extra-terrestrial influences. Such research could lead to a better understanding of atmospheric circulation, precipitation mechanisms and thunderstorms. The field of meteorology which might particularly benefit from such research is long range weather forecasting.     

Energy balance during intense and super-intense magnetic storms using an Akasofu ε parameter corrected by the solar wind dynamic pressure

Geomagnetic storms are large disturbances in the Earth's magnetosphere caused by enhanced solar wind–magnetosphere energy transfer. One of the main manifestations of a geomagnetic storm is the ring current enhancement. It is responsible for the decrease in the geomagnetic field observed at ground stations. In this work, we study the ring current dynamics during two different levels of magnetic storms. Thirty-three events are selected during the period 1981–2004. Eighteen out of 33 events are very intense (or super-intense) magnetic storms (Dst ⩽−250 nT) and the remaining are intense magnetic storms (−250<Dst ⩽−100 nT). Interplanetary data from spacecraft in the solar wind near Earth's orbit (ACE, IMP-8, ISEE-3) and geomagnetic indices (Dst and Sym-H) are analyzed. Our aim is to evaluate the interplanetary characteristics (interplanetary dawn–dusk electric field, interplanetary magnetic field component B_S), the ε parameter, and the total energy input into the magnetosphere (Wε) for these two classes of magnetic storms. Two corrections on the ε energy coupling function are made: the first one is an already known correction in the magnetopause radius to take into account the variation in the solar wind pressure. The second correction on the Akasofu parameter, first proposed in this work, accounts for the reconnection efficiency as a function of the solar wind ram pressure. Geomagnetic data/indices are also employed to study the ring current dynamics and to search for the differences in the storm evolution during these events. Our corrected ε parameter is shown to be more adequate to explain storm energy balance because the energy input and the energy dissipated in the ring current are in better agreement with modern estimates as compared with previous works. For super-intense storms, the correction of the Akasofu ε is on average a scaling factor of 3.7, whilst for intense events, this scaling factor is on average 3.4. The injected energy during the main phase using corrected ε can be considered a criterion to separate intense from very intense storms. Other possibilities of cutoff values based on the energy input are also investigated. A threshold value for the input energy is much more clear when a new classification on Dst=−165 nT is considered. It was found that the energy input during storms with Dst<−165 nT is double of the energy for storms with Dst>−165 nT.     

Dynamics of the large-scale open solar magnetic field and its specific features in the zone of the main active longitudes in 2006–2012

The dynamics of the absolute global values (Φ) of the large-scale open solar magnetic field (LOSMF) fluxes at an interval of one solar rotation in 2006–2012 has been studied based on the Wilcox Solar Observatory data and using the ISOPAK original package for modeling the solar magnetic field. The reference points and the duration of the final quasi-biennial interval in cycle 23 (January 2006–May 2007; 17 months) and the phases of the cycle 24 minimum (May 2007–November 2009; 30 months), growth (November 2009–May 2012; 30 months), and the beginning of the maximum (May 2012–January 2013) have been determined. It has been indicated that the absolute values (Φ) decreased sharply at the beginning of the minimum, growth, and the maximum phases to ～(2, 1.25, 0.75) × 10²² Mx, respectively. During the entire minimum phase, LOSMF corotated super-quasi-rigidly westward in the direction of solar rotation; at the beginning of the growth phase, this field started corotating mostly eastward. The LOSMF polarity reversal in the current cycle 24 started in May–June 2012 (CR 2123–2124), when fields of southern polarity rushed from the Sun’s southern hemisphere toward the north. The statement that the solar cycle is a continuous series of quasi-biennial LOSMF intervals is confirmed. In particular, the minimum and growth phases are characterized by opposite LOSMF rotation directions, i.e., super-quasi-rigid corotation (twisting) and detwisting, with identical duration at least in cycle 24.     

Cosmic-ray vector anisotropy and local characteristics of the interplanetary medium

Variations in the cosmic-ray vector anisotropy observed on Earth are closely connected with the state of the near-Earth interplanetary medium. Hourly characteristics of vector anisotropy for the period 1957–2013, which were obtained by the global survey method from the data of the worldwide network of neutron monitors, make it possible to study the relationship between the cosmic-ray anisotropy and solar wind parameters. In the present work, we have studied the connection between the equatorial component of anisotropy of cosmic rays with a rigidity of 10 GV and the following parameters: velocity and density of the solar wind; density of the interplanetary magnetic field; and cosmic-ray density variations, in which the spatial gradient of cosmic rays in the interplanetary medium is manifested. The characteristics of cosmic-ray anisotropy at various combinations of the interplanetary medium parameters are compared. The possibility of diagnosing the solar wind state from data on the cosmic-ray anisotropy is discussed.