Glacier Distribution in the Alps: Statistical Modelling of Altitude and Aspect

Mass balance of glaciers in mountain areas varies not only with altitude and regional position but also with aspect, gradient, glacier size, glacier type and detailed topographic position. These factors are combined here in models of how glacier altitude varies, tested with data for the Alps edited from the World Glacier Inventory. An overall northward tendency in glacier numbers (toward 005 ± 4°) and lower altitudes (013 ± 5°) is maintained across a range of glacier sizes, types, altitudes and the major divisions of the Alps. Variation with aspect of glacier altitude (and, by implication, of glacier balance) in the Alps is essentially unimodal, and north‐facing glaciers average 220 m lower in middle altitude than south‐facing: 148 m in the Western Alps, 232 m in the West‐central, 252 m in the East‐central, and 268 m in the Eastern Alps. For smaller subdivisions, confidence intervals on estimates are broader and many differences lack statistical significance. Contrasts are greater in the higher massifs, with greater relief, and lower in cloudy, windward areas. There are small windrelated tendencies east of north along the northern and western fringes, but trends across space are weak: position is thus treated by subdivision into districts and groups. Mid‐altitude averages 2891 m overall and varies from 2552 to 3127 m for 27 glacier districts, and from 2124 to 3209 m for 103 glacier groups. Glacier mid‐altitude varies also with glacier form, nourishment, height range and area, which account for over two‐thirds of variance in combined models.     

Current Behaviour and Dynamics of the Lowermost Italian Glacier (Montasio Occidentale,Julian Alps)

Smaller glaciers (<0.5 km²) react quickly to environmental changes and typically show a large scatter in their individual response. Accounting for these ice bodies is essential for assessing regional glacier change, given their high number and contribution to the total loss of glacier area in mountain regions. However, studying small glaciers using traditional techniques may be difficult or not feasible, and assessing their current activity and dynamics may be problematic. In this paper, we present an integrated approach for characterizing the current behaviour of a small, avalanche‐fed glacier at low altitude in the Italian Alps, combining geomorphological, geophysical and high‐resolution geodetic surveying with a terrestrial laser scanner. The glacier is still active and shows a detectable mass transfer from the accumulation area to the lower ablation area, which is covered by a thick debris mantle. The glacier owes its existence to the local topo‐climatic conditions, ensured by high rock walls which enhance accumulation by delivering avalanche snow and reduce ablation by providing topographic shading and regulating the debris budget of the glacier catchment. In the last several years the glacier has displayed peculiar behaviour compared with most glaciers of the European Alps, being close to equilibrium conditions in spite of warm ablation seasons. Proportionally small relative changes have also occurred since the Little Ice Age maximum. Compared with the majority of other Alpine glaciers, we infer for this glacier a lower sensitivity to air temperature and a higher sensitivity to precipitation, associated with important feedback from increasing debris cover during unfavourable periods.     

EVALUATION OF GRIDDED PRECIPITATION FOR NORWAY USING GLACIER MASS‐BALANCE MEASUREMENTS

The service seNorge ( http://senorge.no ) provides gridded temperature and precipitation for mainland Norway. The products are provided as interpolated station measurements on a 1 × 1 km grid. Precipitation gauges are predominantly located at lower elevations such as coastal areas and valleys. Therefore, there are large uncertainties in extrapolating precipitation data to higher altitudes, both due to sparsity of observations as well as the large spatial variability of precipitation in mountainous regions. Using gridded temperature and precipitation data from seNorge, surface mass balance was modeled for five Norwegian glaciers of different size and climate conditions. The model accounts for melting of snow and ice by applying a degree‐day approach and considers refreezing assuming a snow depth depended storage. Calculated values are compared to point measurements of glacier winter mass balance. On average for each glacier, modeled and measured surface mass‐balance evolutions agree well, but results at individual stake locations show large variability. Two types of problems were identified: first, grid data were not able to capture spatial mass balance variability at smaller glaciers. Second, a significant increase in the bias between model and observations with altitude for one glacier suggested that orographic enhancement of precipitation was not appropriately captured by the gridded interpolation.     

Surface hydrological processes of rock glaciated basins in the San Juan Mountains,Colorado

Glaciers in the western USA contribute summer meltwater to regional hydrological systems. In the San Juan Mountains of Colorado, where glaciers do not exist, rock glaciers serve that function during the summer runoff period. Most rock glaciers in Colorado are located on northern slopes in mountainous areas; however, some rock glaciers in southwest Colorado have different aspects. In this study, we asked how slope aspect and rising air temperatures influence the hydrological processes of streams sourced from rock glaciers in the San Juan Mountains. We focused on three adjacent basins, Yankee Boy basin, Blue Lakes basin, and Mill Creek basin, which share a common peak, Gilpin Peak. Using HOBO® U20-001–04 water-level loggers, streamflow data were collected in each of these basins, below each rock glacier. Air temperature significantly influenced stream discharge below the rock glacier. Discharge and air temperature patterns indicate a possible air temperature threshold during late summer when rock glacier melt increases at a greater rate. The results also suggest that the aspect of rock glacier basins influences stream discharge, but that temperature and precipitation are likely larger components of melt regimes.     

祁连山冰川变化及其脆弱性

Glaciers are a reliable freshwater resource in arid regions of West China and the vulnerability of its changes is closely related to regional ecosystem services and economic sustainable development. Here, we took the Qilian Mountains as an example and analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of glacier changes from 1998 to 2018, based on remote sensing images and the Second Chinese Glacier Inventory. We estimated the basic organizational framework and evaluation index system of glacier change vulnerability from exposure, sensitivity and adaptability, which covered the factors of physical geography, population status and socio-economic level. We analyzed the spatial and temporal evolutions of glacier change vulnerability by using the vulnerability evaluation model. Our results suggested that:(1) Glacier area and volume decreased by 71.12±98.98 km² and 5.59±4.41 km³, respectively, over the recent two decades, which mainly occurred at the altitude below 4800 m, with an area shrinking rate of 2.5%. In addition, glaciers in the northern aspect(northwest, north and northeast) had the largest area reduction. Different counties exhibited remarkable discrepancies in glacier area reduction, Tianjuan and Minle presented the maximum and minimum decrease, respectively.(2) Glacier change vulnerability level showed a decreasing trend in space from the central to the northwestern and southeastern regions with remarkable differences. Vulnerability level had increased significantly over time and was mainly concentrated in moderate, high and extreme levels with typical characteristics of phases and regional complexity. Our study can not only help to understand and master the impacts of recent glacier changes on natural and social aspects but also be conducive to evaluate the influences of glacier retreat on socio-economic developments in the future, thus providing references for formulating relevant countermeasures to achieve regional sustainable development.     

近期哈尔里克山脉冰川变化遥感监测

哈尔里克山脉冰川的快速退缩已经影响到吐鲁番坎儿井的水量,先前关于该区冰川研究不够细致,且最新资料报道较为短缺。以哈尔里克山脉冰川为研究对象,基于Landsat TM/ETM+和OLI影像（1992、2002、2010、2016年）,通过比值阈值法、目视解译结合GIS技术,提取了该地区四期冰川边界,同时对研究区周边气温、降水以及日照时数进行线性趋势分析,研究其与冰川的响应关系。结果表明：（1）1992-2016年,哈尔里克山脉冰川总体呈现出持续退缩趋势,面积退缩了13.18%,年均退缩率为0.56%,近年来退缩速率有所减缓。（2）近似估算的冰储量在过去25 a间减少了18.33%,冰川物质亏损将对该区短缺的水资源提供了危险的信号。（3）冰川退缩率与冰川规模呈指数函数变化趋势;低海拔区冰川存在明显的末端升高趋势;N和NW向的冰川占明显优势,但N向退缩率最慢。（4）分形理论分析表明该地区冰川未来退缩将趋于一种稳定状态。该区气温和日照时数的显著上升导致其冰川退缩,同时冰川规模、海拔和坡向分布也是冰川变化的重要因素;对比发现该区冰川退缩速率较天山其他区域慢。     

1990-2011年西昆仑峰区冰川变化的遥感监测

本文应用Landsat 5、7 TM、ETM+影像分析1990-2011年昆仑山西段昆仑峰区冰川变化特征,结果表明:1990-2011年冰川面积减少16.83 km²,退缩率仅为0.65%,冰川退缩趋势不明显。单条冰川变化有进有退,中峰冰川末端在2002-2004年以661 m/a的速率前进,初步判定为跃动冰川。1991-1998年,崇测冰川面积增加9.47 km²,冰川末端以200 m/a的速率前进,不排除有跃动冰川的可能性。尽管近年来全球气温普遍上升,大量冰川处于退缩状态,但统计已有研究结果发现近50年来青藏高原存在冰川长度、面积增加,冰川物质平衡为正的现象,表现出冰川对气候变化复杂的反馈机制。通过分析气象站点和冰芯资料,研究区周边地区气温上升、降水量缓慢增加可能是冰川微弱退缩的原因之一;增强的西风环流带来更多的降水、研究区以极大陆型大规模冰川为主,也可能是冰川退缩幅度较小的原因。     

Modelling Changes in Glacier Mass Balance that may Occur as a Result of Climate Changes

Projections of changes in glacier mass balance caused by climate changes involve modelling present mass balance in terms of climate and then perturbing the climate variables to calculate future mass balance. The simplest model involves linear regression of mass balance time series on temperature and precipitation data at stations close to the glacier but we prefer the degree-day model. This model uses temperature and precipitation to calculate snow accumulation, snow and ice melting, and possible refreezing of meltwater at regular altitude intervals on a glacier. Model parameters are still somewhat uncertain and are established for individual glaciers by tuning the model mass balance as a function of altitude to fit observed data. The model has been applied to 37 glaciers in different parts of the world so far and some details are given for Storglaciären to illustrate the approach. The sensitivity of modelled mass balance to a +1°C temperature increase shows a wide range for the 37 glaciers from about 0.1 to 1.3 m water a⁻¹ . Sub-polar glaciers have lower temperature sensitivities, and maritime and tropical glaciers have higher sensitivities.     

1978-2015年喀喇昆仑山克勒青河流域冰川变化的遥感监测

本文采用1978、1991、2001和2015年的Landsat MSS、TM、ETM+和OLI遥感影像,通过遥感图像计算机辅助分类和目视解译等方法提取冰川边界,分析喀喇昆仑山克勒青河流域冰川在1978-2015年间的进退变化。结果表明：1978-2015年间研究区冰川面积由1821.70 km2减少至1675.92 km2,减少145.78 km2,占1978年冰川总面积的8.00%;冰川消融率较低,在气候变暖的背景下反而呈现出退缩速率由快变慢的趋势。研究区东南向冰川退缩率明显高于西北向,冰川退缩率随冰川规模的增大而减小。研究区内有27处冰川在1978-2015年间发生过特殊的前进现象,面积与长度显著增加。其中,木斯塔冰川西侧冰川末端在1996-1998年间前进速度为904 m/a,乔戈里冰川东侧冰川末端在2007-2009年间前进速度为446 m/a,5Y654D0097冰川末端在1978-1990年间前进速度为238 m/a,初步判定这三条冰川为跃动冰川。以10 a为滞后期分析研究区周边气象站点资料发现：研究区气温持续升高,降水量以1981年为分界点呈现“先减后增”趋势是冰川退缩速率减慢的原因之一;此外,亚大陆型冰川性质、巨大山势条件和高山冷储作用,也可能是冰川退缩幅度较小的原因。     

2000—2014年喀喇昆仑山音苏盖提冰川表面高程变化

喀喇昆仑山区冰川由于存在正物质平衡或跃动、前进现象,被称之为"喀喇昆仑异常",不过该地区冰川变化差异显著,尤其是大型表碛覆盖冰川,呈现与其他类型冰川明显的差异性响应,为理解喀喇昆仑冰川异常的机理,冰川尺度的详细变化研究十分必要。音苏盖提冰川位于喀喇昆仑山乔戈里峰北坡,是中国面积最大的冰川,是典型的大型表碛覆盖冰川。通过应用TanDEM-X/TerraSAR-X(2014年2月)与SRTM-X DEM(2000年2月)的差分干涉测量方法计算音苏盖提冰川表面高程变化,并结合冰川表面流速对冰川表面高程变化和跃动进行分析和讨论。结果表明:2000—2014年音苏盖提冰川表面高程平均下降了1.68±0.94 m,即冰川整体厚度在减薄,年变化率为-0.12±0.07 m·a^-1。冰川表面高程变化分布不均,其中南分支(S)冰流冰川整体减薄较为显著,冰川南分支冰流运动速度较快,前进/跃动的末端占据了冰川的主干,阻滞原主干冰川物质的向下运移(跃动),导致原主干冰舌表面高程上升;冰川厚度减薄随着海拔升高先下降后保持稳定,同时呈现一定的波动性;低海拔表碛区域消融大于裸冰区,可能存在较薄...     

The Impact Of Extreme Summer Melt on Net Accumulation of an Avalanche Fed Glacier,as Determined by Ground‐Penetrating Radar

Glacier mass balance is more sensitive to warming than cooling, but feedbacks related to the exposure of previously buried firn and ice in very warm years is not generally considered in sensitivity studies. A ground‐penetrating radar survey in the accumulation area of Rolleston Glacier, New Zealand shows that five years of previous net accumulation was removed by melt from parts of the glacier above the long‐term equilibrium line altitude during a single negative mass balance year. Rolleston Glacier receives a large amount of accumulation from snow avalanches, which may temporarily buffer it from climate warming by providing additional mass that has accumulated at higher elevations, effectively increasing the elevation range of the glacier. However, glaciers reliant on avalanche input may have high sensitivity to climatic variations because the extra mass is concentrated on a small part of the glacier, and small variations in avalanche input could have a large impact on overall glacier accumulation. Further research is needed to better estimate the amount and spatial distribution of accumulation by avalanche in order to quantify the climate sensitivity of small avalanche‐fed glaciers.     

RS analysis of glaciers change in the Heihe River Basin,Northwest China,during the recent decades

The Heihe River Basin is the second largest inland river basin in Northwest China and it is also a hotspot in arid hydrology, water resources and other aspects of researches in cold regions. In addition, the Heihe River Basin has complete landscape, moderate watershed size, and typical social ecological environmental problems. So far, there has been no detailed assessment of glaciers change information of the whole river basin. 1：50,000 topographic map data, Landsat TM/ETM＋ remote sensing images and digital elevation model data were used in this research. Through integrated computer automatic interpretation and visual interpretation methods, the object-oriented image feature extraction method was applied to extract glacier outline information. Glaciers change data were derived from analysis, and the glacier variation and its response to climate change in the period 1956/1963–2007/ 2011 were also analyzed. The results show that：（1） In the period 1956/1963–2007/2011, the Heihe River Basin＇s glaciers had an evident retreat trend, the total area of glaciers decreased from 361.69 km2 to 231.17 km~2; shrinking at a rate of 36.08%, with average single glacier area decrease 0.14 km~2; the total number of the glaciers decreased from 967 to 800.（2） Glaciers in this basin are mainly distributed at elevations of 4300–4400 m, 4400–4500 m and 4500–4600 m; and there are significant regional differences in glaciers distribution and glaciers change.（3） Compared with other western mountain glaciers, glaciers retreat in the Heihe River Basin has a higher rate.（4） Analysis of the six meteorological stations＇ annual average temperature and precipitation data from 1960 to 2010 suggests that the mean annual temperature increased significantly and the annual precipitation also showed an increasing trend. It is concluded that glacier shrinkage is closely related with temperature rising, besides, glacier melting caused by rising temperatures greater than glacier mass supply by increased precipitation to     

1990-2015年喜马拉雅山东段中国和不丹边境地区冰川变化研究

利用Landsat影像,EDM影像等数据资料,使用遥感图像处理及目视解译方法提取了喜马拉雅山东段中国与不丹边境地区冰川从1990—2015年4期边界,研究其与气温降水变化关系,并选取特定冰川,对其表面流速进行估算。研究表明：1990—2015年,该地区冰川退缩速率达0.43%·a^-1,并且冰川年退缩率逐渐增大,表明冰川消融速度逐渐加快。该时段内,气温呈现明显上升趋势,导致了冰川的快速消融。通过对冰川表面流速的估算,得出中国与不丹边境地区研究选取的冰前湖对冰川流速具有促进作用,加速冰川消融。     

东帕米尔高原冰川运动特征分析

冰川运动控制着冰量输送变化,为冰川变化和冰川灾害研究提供重要信息.为了探讨东帕米尔高原冰川运动特征及其影响因素,基于ITS_LIVE和GoLIVE分析了不同规模、不同地形条件、表碛/非表碛区域的冰川运动速度状况.研究结果表明:(1)东帕米尔高原冰川平均运动速度为5.31 m·a-1,冰川运动速度与冰川规模相关,表现为大...     

近50年黑河流域的冰川变化遥感分析

黑河流域作为中国西北地区第二大内陆流域,其景观类型完整、流域规模适中、社会生态环境问题典型,已成为寒区、旱区水文与水资源研究的热点地区。本研究结合1：5 万地形图、Landsat TM/ETM+遥感影像及数字高程模型数据,运用面向对象的图像信息自动提取方法,建立冰川信息提取知识规则,对近50 年黑河流域的冰川变化进行遥感分析。结果表明：（1）20 世纪60 年代黑河流域内的967 条冰川到2010 年左右,减少为800 条冰川,减少数量明显;冰川面积由361.69 km²退缩为231.17 km²,共减少130.51 km²,退缩率为36.08%,平均每条冰川面积退缩0.14 km²。（2）黑河流域冰川分布及变化存在显著的区域差异性,黑河冰川退缩率比北大河大16%左右;冰川末端主要分布在4300~4400 m、4400~4500 m和4500~4600 m海拔区间内。（3）与西部其他山地冰川相比,黑河流域冰川退缩率较高。（4）根据流域内6 个气象站资料分析表明,降水增加对冰川的补给无法弥补气温上升导致的冰川消融所带来的物质损失,是黑河流域冰川普遍萎缩的关键因素。     

Mass Balance Methods on Kongsvegen, Svalbard

On the glacier Kongsvegen (102 km²) in northwest Spitsbergen, Svalbard, traditional mass balance measurements by stake readings and snow surveying have been conducted annually since 1987. In addition, repeated global positioning system (GPS) profiling, shallow core analysis and ground-penetrating radar (GPR) surveying have been applied. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the input from the different methods, especially the GPS profiling, using the results from the traditional direct method as a reference. The annual flow rate on Kongsvegen is low (2 ? 3 m a^?1), and the emergence velocity is almost negligible. Thus the geometry changes of the glacier, i.e. the change in altitude per distance from the head of the glacier, should reflect the change in net balance of the glacier. The mean annual altitude change from the longitudinal, centreline GPS profiles was compared to the direct stake readings and showed a very good agreement. On Kongsvegen the measured actual ice flux is so low that the mass transfer down-glacier at the mean equlibrium line altitude is less than 10% of what is needed to maintain steady-state geometry. This is clearly shown in the changing altitude profiles. GPS profiling can be used on large glaciers in remote areas to monitor geometry changes, ice flow and net mass balance changes. However, it requires that the centreline profile changes are representative for the area/altitude intervals, i.e. that the accumulation and ablation pattern is evenly distributed. For this purpose the GPR surveying quickly gave the snow distribution variability over long distances. Shallow cores drilled in different altitudes in the accumulation area were analysed to detect radioactive reference layers from the fallout after the Chernobyl accident in 1986, and showed very good agreement to the direct measured net balance. Thus older reference horizons from bomb tests in 1962 could be used to extend the net balance series backwards.     

Reconstruction and Regional Significance of the Coire Breac Palaeoglacier,Glen Esk,Eastern Grampian Highlands,Scotland

We present a glaciological and climatic reconstruction of a former glacier in Coire Breac, an isolated cirque within the Eastern Grampian plateau of Scotland, 5 km from the Highland edge. Published glacier reconstructions of presumed Younger Dryas‐age glaciers in this area show that equilibrium line altitudes decreased steeply towards the east coast, implying a arctic maritime glacial environment. Extrapolation of the ELA trend surface implies that glaciers should have existed in suitable locations on the plateau, a landscape little modified by glaciation. In Coire Breac, a 0.35 km² cirque glacier existed with an equilibrium line altitude of 487 ± 15 m above present sea level. The equilibrium line altitude matches closely the extrapolated regional equilibrium line altitude trend surface for Younger Dryas Stadial glaciers. The mean glacier thickness of 24 m gives an ice volume of 7.8 × 10⁶ m³, and a maximum basal shear stress of c. 100 kPa^?1. Ablation gradient was c. –0.0055 m m^?1, with a mean July temperature at the equilibrium line altitude of c. 5.1°C. The reconstruction implies an arctic maritime climate of low precipitation with local accumulation enhanced by blown snow, which may explain the absence of other contemporary glaciers nearby. Reconstructed ice flow lines show zones of flow concentration around the lower ice margin which help to explain the distribution of depositional facies associated with a former debris cover which may have delayed eventual glacier retreat. No moraines in the area have been dated, so palaeoclimatic interpretations remain provisional, and a pre‐Lateglacial Interstadial age cannot be ruled out.     

RESPONSE OF A MONTENEGRO GLACIER TO EXTREME SUMMER HEATWAVES IN 2003 AND 2007

The Debeli Namet glacier in the Durmitor massif, Montenegro, is one of the lowest altitude glaciers (2050–2300 m) at this latitude (42–44°N) in the northern hemisphere. The glacier survives well below the climatological equilibrium line altitude because of substantial inputs from avalanching and windblown snow. The glacier survived two of the hottest summers on record in 2003 and 2007, although it experienced significant retreat. However, during the intervening years (2004–2006) the glacier increased in size and advanced, forming a new frontal moraine. This rapid advance was primarily in response to much cooler summer temperatures, close to or cooler than average, and a marked increase in winter precipitation. The rapid growth and decay of the Debeli Namet glacier in response to inter‐annual climate variability highlights the sensitivity of small cirque glaciers to short‐term climate change.     

Mapping glacier velocities on Svalbard using ERS tandem DInSAR data

The results presented show how glacier velocities can be measured and calculated from Earth Resources Satellite (ERS) tandem interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data by the use of geographical information systems (GIS) and non-interferometric software. A semi-automatic algorithm using existing and newly implemented modules in ESRI's GIS software Arc has been developed to unwrap existing height differentiated interferometric SAR (DInSAR) data. The algorithm is applied to a data set covering glaciers from the arctic archipelago Svalbard. Estimated DInSAR velocities are decomposed into the glacier surface flow direction using a digital elevation model (DEM). Velocity fields for the glaciers Isachsenfonna, Akademikerbreen and Nordbreen on Svalbard are presented.     

Photogrammetric Analysis of Front Range Rock Glacier Flow Rates

Flow rates for rock glaciers in the European Alps have been monitored using photogrammetric techniques; however, a program has not been initiated for similar Front Range, USA, rock glaciers. Horizontal rock glacier displacements were measured by tracking large surficial rocks on temporal orthophotos from 1978, 1990, and 1999. Vertical change was measured by creating digital elevation models (DEMs) from digital stereopairs, then subtracting elevations to detect change. Long‐term horizontal velocities ranged from 14 to 20 cm/yr on average, although uncertainty ranged from 4 to 5 cm/yr. On average, vertical elevation changes were negligible with most rock glaciers exhibiting a slight growth or thinning (1–2 cm/yr). Over shorter time scales (c. 10‐year periods), horizontal velocities have only increased by about 2 cm/yr. Because horizontal and vertical change is minimal, Front Range rock glaciers appear to be adjusted with current climate, unlike some rock glaciers in the European Alps that have shown increasing subsidence rates or significant increasing or decreasing horizontal velocities.