A framework for determining recommended environmental flows for balancing agricultural and ecosystem water demands

Abstract

We developed a water-use conflict analysis framework to determine environmental flows that optimally balance water requirements for ecosystems and human activities. This framework considers trade-offs between water use for ecosystem health and agricultural processes and considers temporal variations in hydrological processes. It comprises three separate models that (a) analyse water balance between agriculture and initial environmental flows, (b) identify outcomes of varying balances in water use, and (c) determine recommended environmental flows for sustainable water use. We applied the framework to a region downstream of the Yellow River in China. Based on our results, we recommend a water management plan that allocates more water to ecosystem services than is currently allocated and that does not increase predicted economic losses. In addition, we found that recommended flows change depending on the ecological objectives considered and whether technologies or methodologies that improve water-use efficiency are employed.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor M. Acreman

Citation Pang, A., Sun, T., and Yang, Z., 2014. A framework for determining recommended environmental flows for balancing agricultural and ecosystem water demands. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (3–4), 890–903.     

Environmental water quantity projections under market-driven and sustainability-driven future scenarios in the Narew basin,Poland

Abstract

The aim of this article is to assess the impact of four scenarios combining possible changes in climate, atmospheric carbon dioxide, land use and water use by 2050, on the specific set of ecologically relevant flow regime indicators that define environmental flow requirements in a semi-natural river basin in Poland. This aim is presented through a modelling case study using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Indicators show both positive and negative responses to future changes. Warm projections from the IPSL-CM4 global climate model combined with sustainable land- and water-use projections (SuE) produce the most negative changes, while warm and wet projections from the MIROC3.2 model combined with market-driven projections (EcF) gave the most positive changes. Climate change overshadows land- and water-use change in terms of the magnitude of projected flow alterations. The future of environmental water quantity is brighter under the market-driven rather than the sustainability-driven scenario, which shows that sustainability for terrestrial ecosystems (e.g. more forests and grasslands) can be at variance with sustainability for riverine and riparian ecosystems (requiring sufficient amount and proper timing of river flows).

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Piniewski, M., Okruszko, T., and Acreman, M.C., 2014. Environmental water quantity projections under market-driven and sustainability-driven future scenarios in the Narew basin, Poland. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (3–4), 916–934.     

Simulating and understanding effects of water level fluctuations on thermal regimes in Miyun Reservoir

ABSTRACT

Water temperature dynamics in a reservoir are affected by its bathymetry, climatic conditions and hydrological processes. Miyun Reservoir in China is a large and deep reservoir that experienced a large water level decline in 1999–2004 due to low rainfall and relatively high water supply to Beijing. To study changes of stratification characteristics in Miyun Reservoir from 1998 to 2011, the one-dimensional year-round lake model MINLAKE2010 was modified by adding a new selective withdraw module and a reservoir hydrological model. Simulation results under three scenarios demonstrated that the new MINLAKE2012 model accurately predicted daily water levels and temperature dynamics during the water level fluctuation period. The water level decline led to 7.6 and 3.8°C increases in the maximum and mean bottom temperatures and about 29 days reduction in the stratification days. These simulation results provide an insight into the thermal evolution of Miyun Reservoir during the planned future water filling process.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis Associate editor M. Acreman     

Effects of climate and land-use change on green-water variations in the Middle Yellow River,China

Abstract

Water resources management should cover both blue water and green water. For green-water management at the river drainage basin scale, the green-water coefficient (C _gw) is adopted, defined as the ratio of annual green water to annual precipitation. Based on data from the Middle Yellow River basin, China, for the period 1950 to 2007, we studied the temporal variation in C _gw in response to some influencing factors. A decreasing trend in C _gw was found. The influence of changes in land management on C _gw, reflected by an increase in the area (A _sw) of soil and water conservation measures, is emphasized. Using multiple regression analysis, the contributions of A _sw and the 5-year moving averages of annual precipitation and air temperature were estimated as 51, 37 and 12%, respectively. The results may provide useful information for better management of water resources, including green and blue water flows in the Yellow River basin.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor D. Gerten

Citation Xu, J.-X., 2013. Effects of climate and land-use change on green-water variations in the Middle Yellow River, China. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (1), 1–12.     

Assessing climate change impacts on the ecohydrology of the Jinghe River basin in the Loess Plateau,China

Abstract

Quantifying the impacts of climate change on the hydrology and ecosystem is important in the study of the Loess Plateau, China, which is well known for its high erosion rates and ecosystem sensitivity to global change. A distributed ecohydrological model was developed and applied in the Jinghe River basin of the Loess Plateau. This model couples the vegetation model, BIOME BioGeochemicalCycles (BIOME-BGC) and the distributed hydrological model, Water and Energy transfer Process in Large river basins (WEP-L). The WEP-L model provided hydro-meteorological data to BIOME-BGC, and the vegetation parameters of WEP-L were updated at a daily time step by BIOME-BGC. The model validation results show good agreement with field observation data and literature values of leaf area index (LAI), net primary productivity (NPP) and river discharge. Average climate projections of 23 global climate models (GCMs), based on three emissions scenarios, were used in simulations to assess future ecohydrological responses in the Jinghe River basin. The results show that global warming impacts would decrease annual discharge and flood season discharge, increase annual NPP and decrease annual net ecosystem productivity (NEP). Increasing evapotranspiration (ET) due to air temperature increase, as well as increases in precipitation and LAI, are the main reasons for the decreasing discharge. The increase in annual NPP is caused by a greater increase in gross primary productivity (GPP) than in plant respiration, whilst the decrease in NEP is caused by a larger increase in heterotrophic respiration than in NPP. Both the air temperature increase and the precipitation increase may affect the changes in NPP and NEP. These results present a serious challenge for water and land management in the basin, where mitigation/adaption measures for climate change are desired.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor D. Yang

Citation Peng, H., Jia, Y.W., Qiu, Y.Q., and Niu, C.W., 2013. Assessing climate change impacts on the ecohydrology of the Jinghe River basin in the Loess Plateau, China. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (3), 651–670.     

Seasonal variation of land–atmosphere coupling strength over the West African monsoon region in an atmospheric general circulation model

Abstract

The seasonal variation of land–atmosphere coupling strength has been examined using an extended series of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations. In the Western Sahel of Africa, strong coupling strength for precipitation is found in April and May, just prior to and at the beginning of the monsoon season. At this time, heat and water fluxes from the surface are strongly controlled by land conditions, and the unstable conditions in the lower level of the troposphere, as induced by local land state, allow the surface fluxes to influence the variability of convective precipitation—and thus the timing of monsoon onset.

Editor Z. W. Kundzewicz

Citation Yamada, T.J., Kanae, S., Oki, T., and Koster, R.D., 2013. Seasonal variation of land–atmosphere coupling strength over the West African monsoon region in an atmospheric general circulation model. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (6), 1276–1286.     

The driving force of basin water resource utilization to lake nutrients

ABSTRACT

Understanding of the effect of basin water resources utilization on lake nutrients is helpful to prevent lake eutrophication and facilitate sustainable water resources management. In this study, a lake basin dualistic water cycle system is established to identify the environmental effect of lake water. Four water utilization indicators were chosen to build a driving relationship with the lake nutrients. Three different trophic lakes in Yunnan Province, China – Dianchi, Erhai and Fuxian – were selected to demonstrate the changes in basin water utilization, runoff, nutrient loads and water-use indicators for the period 2000–2015. In addition, the driving forces of water-use indicators to nutrients (total nitrogen and total phosphorus) were analysed by a general additive model. Finally, an optimized water utilization system for each lake basin is proposed. The research provides a practical tool for water resources and environmental management in lake basins.     

Water allocation under the constraint of total water-use quota: a case from Dongjiang River Basin,South China

A constrained total water-use policy has been implemented to maintain sustainable water supply in some water shortage areas. Managing a constrained water-use quota (T) in water allocation is a challenging goal. This paper proposes a new framework for water allocation under total water-use constraint by utilizing the concept of the Newsboy model, commonly used in operations management and applied economics, and applying it to the Dongjiang River Basin, South China. This framework considers T as a state variable of the objective function, rather than simply dealing with it as a constraint of multi-objective analysis. Using this framework, it is revealed how different schemes of T play out in water allocation, and water-use warning is provided for each sector and water governor in water resources management.     

Water and nutrient predictions in ungauged basins: set-up and evaluation of a model at the national scale

Abstract

A dynamic water quality model, HYPE, was applied to a large, data-sparse region to study whether reliable information on water quantity and water quality could be obtained for both gauged and ungauged waterbodies. The model (called S-HYPE) was set up for all of Sweden (～450 000 km²), divided into sub-basins with an average area of 28 km². Readily available national databases were used for physiographic data, emissions and agricultural practices, fixed values for representative years were used. Daily precipitation and temperature were used as the dynamic forcing of the model. Model evaluation was based on data from several hundred monitoring sites, of which approximately 90% had not been used in calibration on a daily scale. Results were evaluated using the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), correlation and relative errors: 92% of the spatial variation was explained for specific water discharge, and 88% and 59% for total nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations, respectively. Day-to-day variations were modelled with satisfactory results for water discharge and the seasonal variation of nitrogen concentrations was also generally well captured. In 20 large, unregulated rivers the median NSE for water discharge was 0.84, and the corresponding number for 76 partly-regulated river basins was 0.52. In small basins, the NSE was typically above 0.6. These major achievements relative to previous similar experiments were ascribed to the step-wise calibration process using representative gauged basins and the use of a modelling concept, whereby coefficients are linked to physiographic variables rather than to specific sites.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Strömqvist, J., Arheimer, B., Dahné, J., Donnelly, C. and Lindström, G., 2012. Water and nutrient predictions in ungauged basins: set-up and evaluation of a model at the national scale. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (2), 229–247.     

Water quality management in Singapore: the role of institutions,laws and regulations

Abstract

The paper analyses the legal and regulatory instruments for water quality management that have been set in place in Singapore for control of water pollution, and their evolution since the time of independence in 1965. The role of institutions in the strict implementation of the laws and regulations is also discussed, with special emphasis on the efficient inter-institutional coordination machinery that has made it possible. The analyses show that overall long-term planning and policy-making and a strong political will have been instrumental to give all aspects of water management high priority in the national agenda, thus directly supporting urban, industrial and commercial growth.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz     

Fluoride hazard and assessment of groundwater quality in the semi-arid Upper Panda River basin,Sonbhadra district,Uttar Pradesh,India

Abstract

Around 9000 inhabitants in the Panda River basin, Sonbhadhra District, Uttar Pradesh, India, are vulnerable to a “silent” dental and skeletal fluorosis from groundwater consumption. The fluoride source and seasonal groundwater quality variation were studied by collecting 65 groundwater samples in the Upper Panda River basin. Major rock types are phyllites and granite gneissic rocks. Fluoride concentrations are in the range 0.4–5.6 mg/L in the pre-monsoon season and 0.1–6.7 mg/L in the post-monsoon season. Fluor-apatite and biotite mica in the granite gneissic rock were identified as the main provenance of fluoride in the groundwater through water–rock interactions. Due to precipitation of calcium, soils become alkaline with high contents of sodium; these conditions allow fluoride to accumulate in water. According to risk index calculations, the fluoride-affected villages were shown to fall in the fluoride risk zone (with a risk index of around 1.7). On the basis of mineral stability diagrams, groundwater from the weathered and fractured aquifers appears to be stable within the kaolinite field, suggesting weathering of silicate minerals. The groundwater is chemically potable and suitable for domestic and agricultural purposes, except for a few wells in the southern region that are contaminated with high amounts of fluoride.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Raju, N.J., Dey, S., Gossel, W., and Wycisk, P., 2012. Fluoride hazard and assessment of groundwater quality in the semi-arid Upper Panda River basin, Sonbhadra District, Uttar Pradesh, India. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (7), 1433–1452.     

Recycled water for augmenting urban streams in mediterranean-climate regions: a potential approach for riparian ecosystem enhancement

Abstract

The scarcity of water in mediterranean-climate regions makes flow management in the rehabilitation of urban streams problematic. To explore potential applications of using recycled water for stream enhancement, we examine streams in the San Francisco Bay Area of California, USA, to characterize: (a) historic flow regimes at the regional scale, (b) potential unintended ecological effects and (c) specific issues related to recycled water. We analysed historic flow regimes in five basins, performed a streamflow augmentation experiment and monitored benthic macroinvertebrates above and below a recycled-water discharge. Streamflow augmentation with recycled water can provide improved aesthetics and aquatic habitat, but there are caveats to consider. Implications of inputs of recycled water in streams, whether direct or indirect, require detailed analysis of trade-offs. Augmentation is unlikely to harm the ecology of urban streams that are now just barely flowing perennially with pools of stagnant, contaminated water, and it may reduce public health problems from mosquitoes.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor M. Acreman

Citation Lawrence, J.E., Pavia, C.P.W., Kaing, S., Bischel, H.N., Luthy, R.G., and Resh, V.H., 2014. Recycled water for augmenting urban streams in mediterranean-climate regions: a potential approach for riparian ecosystem enhancement. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (3–4), 488–501.     

Modelling hourly evapotranspiration and soil water content at the grass-covered boundary-layer field site Falkenberg,Germany

Abstract

The study analyses a 2-year period of hourly rates of real evapotranspiration (ETr) derived from eddy covariance measurements and soil water contents at depths from 8 to 90 cm, monitored by time domain reflectometry probes at the grass-covered boundary-layer field site Falkenberg of the Lindenberg Meteorological Observatory – Richard-Aßmann-Observatory, operated by the German Meteorological Service (DWD). The ETr rates and soil water contents were compared with the results of a modelling approach consisting of the Penman-Monteith equation and the soil water balance model Hydrus-1D using a noncompensatory and a compensatory root-water uptake model. After optimization of soil hydraulic parameters by inverse modelling, using measured soil water contents as the objective function, simulated and measured model outputs showed good agreement for soil water contents above 90 cm depth and for ETr rates simulated by our modelling approaches using noncompensatory root-water uptake. The application of a compensatory root-water uptake model led to a decrease in the simulation quality for the total investigation period.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Wegehenkel, M. and Beyrich, F., 2014. Modelling of hourly evapotranspiration and soil water content at the grass-covered boundary-layer field site Falkenberg, Germany. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (2), 376–394.     

Grid parameterization of a conceptual distributed hydrological model through integration of a sub-grid topographic index: necessity and practicability

Abstract

Grid-based distributed models have become popular for describing spatial hydrological processes. However, the influence of non-homogeneity within a grid on streamflow simulation was not adequately addressed in the literature. In this study, we investigated how the statistical characteristics of soil moisture storage within a grid impacts on streamflow simulations. The spatial variation of the topographic index, TI, within a grid was used to determine parameter B of the statistical curve of soil moisture storage in the Xinanjiang model. For comparison of influences of the non-homogeneity within a grid on streamflow simulation, two parameterization schemes of soil moisture storage capacity were developed: a grid-parameterization scheme for a distributed model and a catchment-averaged scheme for a semi-distributed model. The practicability and usefulness of the grid-parameterization method were evaluated through model comparisons. The two models were applied in Jiangwan experimental catchment Zhejiang Province, China. Streamflow discharge data at the catchment outlet from 1971 to 1986 at different temporal resolutions, e.g. 15 min and daily time step, were used for model calibration and validation. Statistical results for different grid scales demonstrated that the mean and variation of TI and B decline significantly as the grid scale increases. The simulated streamflow discharges of the two models were similar and the semi-distributed model outperformed the distributed model slightly when the streamflow at the outlet of the catchment was used as the only basis for comparison. In addition, a relatively larger bias in the predicted discharges between these two models was observed along with an abrupt increase of soil moisture saturation ratio. A further analysis of the simulated soil moisture content distribution revealed that the distributed model can provide a reasonable representation of the variable source area concept, which was justified to some extent by the field experiment data.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Liu, J.T., Chen, X., Wu, J.C., Zhang, X.N., Feng, D.Z. and Xu, C.-Y., 2012. Grid parameterization of a conceptual, distributed hydrological model through integration of a sub-grid topographic index: necessity and practicability. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (2), 282–297.     

Regional spatial pattern of deep soil water content and its influencing factors

Abstract

Plant root systems can utilize soil water to depths of 10 m or more. Spatial pattern data of deep soil water content (SWC) at the regional scale are scarce due to the labour and time constraints of field measurements. We measured gravimetric deep SWC (DSWC) at depths of 200, 300, 400, 500, 600, 800 and 1000 cm at 382 sites across the Loess Plateau, China. The coefficient of variation was high for soil water content (SWC) in the horizontal direction (48%), but was relatively small for SWC in the vertical direction (9%). Semivariogram ranges for DSWC at different depths were between 198 and 609 km. Kriged distribution maps indicated that deep soil layers became moister along northwest to southeast transects. Multiple statistical analyses related DSWC to plant characteristics (e.g. plant age explained >21% of the variability), geographical location and altitude (8–13%), soil texture and infiltrability, evaporation zone and eco-hydrological processes (P < 0.05). Regional land management decisions can be based on our DSWC distribution data to determine land uses and plant species appropriate for the soil type and location that would maintain a stable soil water balance. Maintaining infiltrability is of great importance in this and other water-scarce regions of the world.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor J. Simunek

Citation Wang, Y.Q., Shao, M.A., Liu, Z.P. and Warrington, D.N., 2012. Regional spatial pattern of deep soil water content and its influencing factors. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (2), 265–281.     

Hydrological behaviour of a drained agricultural peat catchment in the tropics. 2: Time series transfer function modelling approach

Abstract

Transfer function models of the rainfall–runoff relationship with various complexities are developed to investigate the hydrological behaviour of a tropical peat catchment that has undergone continuous drainage for a long time. The study reveals that a linear transfer function model of order one and noise term of ARIMA (1,0,0) best represents the monthly rainfall–runoff relationship of a drained peat catchment. The best-fitted transfer function model is capable of illustrating the cumulative hydrological effects of the catchment when subjected to drainage. Transfer function models of daily rainfall–runoff relationships for each year of the period 1983–1993 are also developed to decipher the changes in hydrological behaviour of the catchment due to drainage. The results show that the amount of rain water temporarily stored in the peat soil decreased and the catchment has become more responsive to rainfall over the study period.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor D. Hughes

Citation Katimon, A., Shahid, S., Abd Wahab, A.K., and Shabri, A., 2013. Hydrological behaviour of a drained agricultural peat catchment in the tropics. 2: Time series transfer function modelling approach. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (6), 1310–1325.     

A drought outlook study in Korea

Abstract

Techniques are proposed for developing a monthly and weekly drought outlook and the drought outlook components are evaluated. A drought index, the surface water supply index (SWSI) was modified and used for the drought outlook. A water balance model (abcd) was successfully calibrated using a regional regression, including monthly and weekly factors, and was used to convert meteorology to hydrology. For the monthly drought outlook, an ensemble technique was applied, both with and without monthly industrial meteorology information (MIMI). For the weekly drought outlook, a deterministic forecasting technique was applied employing the Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System (GDAPS). The methodologies were applied to the Geum River basin in Korea. While only the weekly outlook using the GDAPS has sufficient forecasting capability to suggest it might be useful, the accuracy of the monthly drought outlook is expected to improve as the climate forecast accuracy increases.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor D. Hughes

Citation Kim, Y.-O., Lee, J.-K., and Palmer, R.N., 2012. A drought outlook study in Korea. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (6), 1141–1153.     

The role of run-on for overland flow and the characteristics of runoff generation in the Loess Plateau,China

Abstract

The Loess Plateau in China is overlain by deep and loose soil. As in other semi-arid regions, convective precipitation produces storms, typically of short duration, relatively high intensity and limited areal extent. Infiltration excess (Hortonian mechanism) of precipitation is conventionally assumed to be more prominent than saturation excess (Dunne mechanism) for storm runoff generation. This assumption is true at a point during the storm. However, the runoff generation mechanism is altered when the runoff is conditioned by a lateral redistribution movement of water, i.e. run-on, as the spatial scale increases. In the Loess Plateau, the effects of run-on may be significant, because of the deep and loose surface soil layer. In this study, the role of run-on for overland flow in the Upper Wei River basin, located in the Loess Plateau, is evaluated by means of a simple numerical model at the hillslope scale. The results show that almost all the Hortonian overland flow infiltrates into the soil along the flat hillslope and dry gully before it reaches the river channel. Most of the runoff is generated from the saturated soil near the river channel and from the subsurface. The run-on process takes much longer than the infiltration, facilitating rainfall–runoff modelling at a daily time step. A hydrological model is employed to investigate the characteristics of runoff generation in the Upper Wei River basin. The analysis shows that the subsurface flow contribution to total streamflow is more than 53% from October to March, while the overland flow contribution exceeds 72% from April to September.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor Dawen Yang

Citation Liu, D.F., Tian, F.Q., Hu, H.C., and Hu, H.P., 2012. The role of run-on for overland flow and the characteristics of runoff generation in the Loess Plateau, China. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (6), 1107–1117.     

Soil water dynamics in cropped and uncropped fields in northern Greece using a dual-permeability model

Abstract

This study focuses on the calibration and validation of a dual-permeability soil water flow model for simulating soil water dynamics during the growing period in an irrigated corn field and during the rainy winter period in an uncropped field in northern Greece. The 1D numerical transient dual-permeability model MACRO 5.0 was used to describe the soil water dynamics, the water balance and deep percolation considering both macropore (two-domain) flow and non-macropore (one-domain) flow. The simulated results were compared with measurements of total soil water content at different depths in the soils. The values of the statistical criteria RMSE, E and CRM were better when macroporosity flow was considered; the soil water content showed better redistribution in the soil profile. The limited irrigation of the corn field during the growing period and the irrigation rates did not create conditions for deep percolation of water. In the uncropped field (bare soil), the wet conditions and the high rainfall during the simulation period created conditions for significant deep percolation, whether macropore flow was included in the model or not. The two-domain approach significantly affects the actual evaporation and the deep percolation. The difference between these two approaches is in the amount of deep percolation and the flow path of drainage flow. In the two-domain approach, most deep percolation follows the macropore domain (79.8%). The errors due to macropore parameter uncertainty and to the difficulties of measuring the macropore water content and flow were estimated by a sensitivity analysis for the more important parameters of the model.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Antonopoulos, V.Z., Georgiou, P.E., and Kolotouros, C.A., 2013. Soil water dynamics in cropped and uncropped fields in northern Greece using a dual-permeability model. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (8), 1748–1759.     

Modelling of water withdrawal for pollutant flushing in the tidal river network,Pearl River Delta,China

Abstract

A one-dimensional water quantity and quality mathematical model was developed to evaluate the effects of joint gate–pump operation in terms of water withdrawal for pollutant flushing. The study was carried out in dry seasons in the Foshan River channel, China. The results indicate that the input of freshwater into the upper and middle reaches of the Foshan River can improve the water quality of the lower reaches. However, the backwater effect due to water diversion in the middle reaches of the river can greatly offset the cleaning processes in the upper reaches of the Foshan River. The results indicate that water quality in the upper Foshan River (Jiebian) may degrade with an increase in the rate of water withdrawal from the middle river when the discharge pumped from the upper Foshan River is less than 10m³/s; optimal water quality improvement is obtained with discharge values of 30 and 20 m³/s, respectively, at the upper and middle reaches of the Foshan River.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Liu, C.-L., Jiang, T., Zhang, Q., Zhu, S. and Li, K., 2012. Modelling of water withdrawal for pollutant flushing in the tidal river network, Pearl River Delta, China. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (3), 576–590.