浙江珊溪水库库区地震波衰减特征研究

2002—2007年发生的珊溪水库地震事件是少震、 弱震的浙江省区域显著的地震事件. 搜集182次M_L>2.0地震的近场台站数字地震波形, 使用这些波形高信噪比的尾波时间域信号, 根据计算尾波Q_c(f)值的Sato模型, 通过滤波及去除环境噪声, 计算了地震波传播路径上的尾波Q_c(f)值; 拟合Q_c(f)值与频率f之间的关系, 分析了水库区域地震波衰减的时空特征. 根据信噪比及计算要求, 从近场9个台站的记录中挑选出641条三分向记录, 计算尾波衰减参数, 得到尾波Q_c(f)与频率f的关系为: Q_c(f)=52.19±7.11f^{0.922 1±0.05}. 结果表明, 本区域为低衰减区域. 震群活动使区域介质对高频率波衰减趋势性增大. 进一步对尾波衰减参数及尾波采样体之间的关系分析发现, 该区域存在深部高衰减层.     

Development of a one-parameter variable source area runoff model for ungauged basins

This research develops a one-parameter model of saturated source area dynamics and the spatial distribution of soil moisture. The single required parameter is the maximum soil moisture deficit within the catchment. The concept behind the development of the model comes from the fact that the complexity of topographically-driven runoff generation can be reduced through the use of geomorphological scaling relations. The scaling formulation allows the prediction of the dynamics of saturated source areas as a function of basin-wide soil moisture state. This model offers a number of potential advantages. Firstly, the model parameter is independent of topographic index distribution and its associated scale effects. Secondly, it may be possible to measure this single parameter using field measurements or perhaps remote sensing, which gives the model significant potential for application in ungauged basins. Finally, the fact that this parameter is a physical characteristic of the basin, estimation of this parameter avoids regionalization and parameter transferability problems. The model is tested using rainfall–runoff data from the 10.4 ha experimental catchment known as Tarrawara in Australia, the 37 km² Town Creek catchment in U.S.A., and the 620 km² Balaphi and the 850 km² Likhu sub-catchments of the Koshi river in Nepal. In sub-catchments of Koshi river, the simulation results compare favorably against the calibrated TOPMODEL both in terms of direct runoff and the spatial distribution of soil moisture state. In the Tarrawara and Town Brook catchments, simulation results compare favorably against observed storm runoff using all observed data, without calibration.     

Comparison of design peak flow estimation methods for ungauged basins in Iran

ABSTRACT

Determining the catchment design peak flow is crucial in hydrological practice. In this paper, the conceptual rainfall–runoff model EBA4SUB (Event-Based Approach for Small and Ungauged Basins) was applied in six catchments in Iran. The aims were to test EBA4SUB in reconstructing runoff hydrographs for the investigated case studies and to provide a suitable alternative for the review and updating of design peak flow estimation in Iran. The EBA4SUB output was compared with previous studies on selected catchments. The results show, for all case studies, a large variability in the peak flow values; the EBA4SUB model gave flow values similar to the other methodologies. The EBA4SUB model can be recommended for the following reasons: (i) it minimizes the subjectivity of the modeller. (ii) its modules are based on state-of-the-art procedures, which have been appropriately optimized for ungauged basins; and (iii) it furnishes the whole design flood hydrograph.     

Calibration of rainfall-runoff models in ungauged basins: A regional maximum likelihood approach

Parameter estimation for rainfall-runoff models in ungauged basins is a challenging task that is receiving significant attention by the scientific community. In fact, many practical applications suffer from problems induced by data scarcity, given that hydrological observations are often sparse or unavailable. This study focuses on regional calibration for a generic rainfall-runoff model. The maximum likelihood function in the spectral domain proposed by Whittle [40] is approximated in the time domain by maximising the fit of selected statistics of the river flow process, with the aim to propose a calibration procedure that can be applied at regional scale. Accordingly, the statistics above are related to the dominant climate and catchment characteristics, through regional regression relationships. The proposed technique is applied to the case study of 4 catchments located in central Italy, which are treated as ungauged and are located in a region where detailed hydrological, as well as geomorphologic and climatic information, is available. The results obtained with the regional calibration are compared with those provided by a classical least squares calibration in the time domain. The outcomes of the analysis confirm the potential of the proposed methodology and show that regional information can be very effective for setting up hydrological models.     

Regionalization of constraints on expected watershed response behavior for improved predictions in ungauged basins

Approaches to modeling the continuous hydrologic response of ungauged basins use observable physical characteristics of watersheds to either directly infer values for the parameters of hydrologic models, or to establish regression relationships between watershed structure and model parameters. Both these approaches still have widely discussed limitations, including impacts of model structural uncertainty. In this paper we introduce an alternative, model independent, approach to streamflow prediction in ungauged basins based on empirical evidence of relationships between watershed structure, climate and watershed response behavior. Instead of directly estimating values for model parameters, different hydrologic response behaviors of the watershed, quantified through model independent streamflow indices, are estimated and subsequently regionalized in an uncertainty framework. This results in expected ranges of streamflow indices in ungauged watersheds. A pilot study using 30 UK watersheds shows how this regionalized information can be used to constrain ensemble predictions of any model at ungauged sites. Dominant controlling characteristics were found to be climate (wetness index), watershed topography (slope), and hydrogeology. Main streamflow indices were high pulse count, runoff ratio, and the slope of the flow duration curve. This new approach provided sharp and reliable predictions of continuous streamflow at the ungauged sites tested.     

Reservoir storage for managing floods in urban areas: a case study of Dzorwulu basin in Accra

The study simulated the effect of using reservoir storage for reducing flood peaks and volumes in urban areas with the Dzorwulu basin in Accra, Ghana as case study. A triangulated irregular network surface of the floodplain was created using ArcGIS from ESRI by integrating digital elevation model and the map of the study area. The weighted curve number for the basin was obtained from the land use and soil type shape files using ArcGIS. The Soil Conservation Service curve number unit hydrograph procedure was used to obtain an inflow hydrograph based on the highest rainfall recorded in recent history (3–4 June 1995) in the study area and then routed through an existing reservoir to assess the impact of the reservoir on potential flood peak attenuation. The results from the analysis indicate that a total of 13.09 × 10⁶ m³ of flood water was generated during this 10‐h rainstorm, inundating a total area of 6.89 km² with a depth of 4.95 m at the deepest section of the basin stream. The routing results showed that the reservoir has capacity to store 34.52% of the flood hydrograph leading to 45% reduction in flood peak and subsequently 38.5% reduction in flood inundation depth downstream of the reservoir. From results of the study, the reservoir storage concept looks promising for urban flood management in Ghana, especially in communities that are over‐urbanized downstream but have some space upstream for creating the storage. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

三峡水库区间来沙量估算及水库排沙效果分析

三峡水库是控制和开发长江的重要工程,具有巨大的防洪、发电、航运等综合效益.水库排沙比是反映水库拦截泥沙程度的重要指标.针对目前三峡水库排沙比计算没有考虑三峡水库区间来沙,结果偏大的问题,依据三峡水库区间水文站2003-2016年实测水文资料,采用水文学法估算了三峡水库区间月、年入库输沙量,分析了三峡水库排沙效果及主要影响因素.结果表明：1）三峡水库区间年均来沙量约1775×10⁴ t,占总入库沙量的10.3%,近年来沙占比有所增大,其中2013-2016年来沙量占总入库沙量的26.9%;2）三峡水库年均排沙比为21.6%,其中围堰蓄水期为34.1%,初期蓄水期为17.0%,试验性蓄水期为15.4%;3）三峡水库采用"蓄清排浑"方式运行,主汛期7-9月的排沙比一般大于枯季,但2013年以后,出现了主汛期排沙比小于枯季的现象;4）入库细颗粒泥沙的排沙比大于粗颗粒泥沙,其中粒径d ≤ 0.062 mm的细颗粒泥沙排沙比为23.4%,0.062 mm0.125 mm的中粗沙排沙比分别为5.5%和11.1%;5）三峡水库排沙比汛期主要受V/Q影响,枯季主要受入库含沙量的影响;当V/Q约为170×10⁴ s时,水库排沙效果最差;分别建立了汛期和枯季排沙比经验计算式.本文的研究成果可为三峡水库水沙优化调度等提供参考.     

Bayesian estimation of inflow hydrographs in ungauged sites of multiple reach systems

A Bayesian Geostatistical Approach to evaluate unknown upstream flow hydrographs in multiple reach systems is implemented. The methodology was, firstly, tested through three synthetic examples of river confluences, that differ in the available data, boundary conditions and number of the estimated inflow time series. Input discharge hydrographs were routed downstream by means of the widely known HEC-RAS river analysis system to obtain the downstream stage hydrographs used as known observations for the reverse procedure. In almost all cases, the observed water levels were corrupted with random errors to highlight the reliability of the methodology in preventing instabilities and overfitting. Then the procedure was applied to the real case study of the Parma–Baganza river confluence located at the city of Parma (Italy) to assess the tributary Baganza River inflow hydrograph (supposed completely ungauged) using water level data collected downstream on the main reach. The results show that the methodology properly reproduces the unknown inflows even in presence of errors affecting the downstream water levels. The practical applicability of the proposed approach is also demonstrated in complex river systems.     

Curve‐Number/Green–Ampt mixed procedure for streamflow predictions in ungauged basins: Parameter sensitivity analysis

A procedure combining the Soil Conservation Service‐Curve Number (SCS‐CN) method and the Green–Ampt (GA) infiltration equation was recently developed to overcome some of the drawbacks of the classic SCS‐CN approach when estimating the volume of surface runoff at a sub‐daily time resolution. The rationale of this mixed procedure, named Curve Number for Green–Ampt (CN4GA), is to use the GA infiltration model to distribute the total volume of the net hyetograph (rainfall excess) provided by the SCS‐CN method over time. The initial abstraction and the total volume of rainfall given by the SCS‐CN method are used to identify the ponding time and to quantify the hydraulic conductivity parameter of the GA equation. In this paper, a sensitivity analysis of the mixed CN4GA parameters is presented with the aim to identify conditions where the mixed procedure can be effectively used within the Prediction in Ungauged Basin perspective. The effects exerted by changes in selected input parameters on the outputs are evaluated using rectangular and triangular synthetic hyetographs as well as 100 maximum annual storms selected from synthetic rainfall time series. When applied to extreme precipitation events, which are characterized by predominant peaks of rainfall, the CN4GA appears to be rather insensitive to the input hydraulic parameters of the soil, which is an interesting feature of the CN4GA approach and makes it an ideal candidate for the rainfall excess estimation at sub‐daily temporal resolution at ungauged sites. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Calibration of hydrological models in ungauged basins based on satellite radar altimetry observations of river water level

This paper proposes a new orientation to address the problem of hydrological model calibration in ungauged basin. Satellite radar altimetric observations of river water level at basin outlet are used to calibrate the model, as a surrogate of streamflow data. To shift the calibration objective, the hydrological model is coupled with a hydraulic model describing the relation between streamflow and water stage. The methodology is illustrated by a case study in the Upper Mississippi Basin using TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) satellite data. The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) is employed for model calibration and uncertainty analysis. We found that even without any streamflow information for regulating model behavior, the calibrated hydrological model can make fairly reasonable streamflow estimation. In order to illustrate the degree of additional uncertainty associated with shifting calibration objective and identifying its sources, the posterior distributions of hydrological parameters derived from calibration based on T/P data, streamflow data and T/P data with fixed hydraulic parameters are compared. The results show that the main source is the model parameter uncertainty. And the contribution of remote sensing data uncertainty is minor. Furthermore, the influence of removing high error satellite observations on streamflow estimation is also examined. Under the precondition of sufficient temporal coverage of calibration data, such data screening can eliminate some unrealistic parameter sets from the behavioral group. The study contributes to improve streamflow estimation in ungauged basin and evaluate the value of remote sensing in hydrological modeling. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A canonical correlation approach to the determination of homogeneous regions for regional flood estimation of ungauged basins

Abstract

A canonical correlation method for determining the homogeneous regions used for estimating flood characteristics of ungauged basins is described. The method emphasizes graphical and quantitative analysis of relationships between the basin and flood variables before the data of the gauged basins are used for estimating the flood variables of the ungauged basin. The method can be used for both homogeneous regions, determined a priori by clustering algorithms in the space of the flood-related canonical variables, as well as for “regions of influence” or “neighbourhoods” centred on the point representing the estimated location of the ungauged basin in that space.     

Lag prediction in ungauged basins: an investigation through actual data of the upper Tiber River valley

A comparative analysis of a variety of relationships for prediction of basin lag is performed by applying them to 23 basins located in the same geographical area and characterized by a rather similar vegetative cover. The results of computations indicate that a lag–area relationship with two constant parameters is the best predictor for most basins; under different vegetative covers in the same basin only one parameter should be variable. For a few other basins characterized by an anomalous drainage channel network of low density, such a relationship can lead to unacceptable errors. Thus, there is a need for an additional relationship to overcome this difficulty, but a larger number of anomalous basins would be required for its determination. An alternative procedure, based on the use of the non‐linear kinematic wave, which at least allows singling out the cases where a specific lag–area relationship is not reliable, is proposed. This procedure, therefore, represents a partial but very useful solution to avoid considerable errors in hydrological practice. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Green‐Ampt Curve‐Number mixed procedure as an empirical tool for rainfall–runoff modelling in small and ungauged basins

The Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS‐CN) method is a popular rainfall–runoff model that is widely used to estimate direct runoff from small and ungauged basins. The SCS‐CN is a simple and valuable approach to quantify the total streamflow volume generated by storm rainfall, but its use is not appropriate for estimating the sub‐daily incremental rainfall excess. To overcome this drawback, we propose to include the Green‐Ampt (GA) infiltration model into a mixed procedure, which is referred to as Curve Number for Green‐Ampt (CN4GA), aiming to distribute in time the information provided by the SCS‐CN method. For a given storm, the computed SCS‐CN total net rainfall amount is employed to calibrate the soil hydraulic conductivity parameter of the GA model. The proposed procedure is evaluated by analysing 100 rainfall–runoff events that were observed in four small catchments of varying size. CN4GA appears to provide encouraging results for predicting the net rainfall peak and duration values and has shown, at least for the test cases considered in this study, better agreement with the observed hydrographs than the classic SCS‐CN method. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Application of distributed hydrological models for predictions in ungauged basins: a method to quantify predictive uncertainty

Stream flow predictions in ungauged basins are one of the most challenging tasks in surface water hydrology because of nonavailability of data and system heterogeneity. This study proposes a method to quantify stream flow predictive uncertainty of distributed hydrologic models for ungauged basins. The method is based on the concepts of deriving probability distribution of model's sensitive parameters by using measured data from a gauged basin and transferring the distribution to hydrologically similar ungauged basins for stream flow predictions. A Monte Carlo simulation of the hydrologic model using sampled parameter sets with assumed probability distribution is conducted. The posterior probability distributions of the sensitive parameters are then computed using a Bayesian approach. In addition, preselected threshold values of likelihood measure of simulations are employed for sizing the parameter range, which helps reduce the predictive uncertainty. The proposed method is illustrated through two case studies using two hydrologically independent sub‐basins in the Cedar Creek watershed located in Texas, USA, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The probability distribution of the SWAT parameters is derived from the data from one of the sub‐basins and is applied for simulation in the other sub‐basin considered as pseudo‐ungauged. In order to assess the robustness of the method, the numerical exercise is repeated by reversing the gauged and pseudo‐ungauged basins. The results are subsequently compared with the measured stream flow from the sub‐basins. It is observed that the measured stream flow in the pseudo‐ungauged basin lies well within the estimated confidence band of predicted stream flow. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessment of flooding in urbanized ungauged basins: a case study in the Upper Tiber area,Italy

The reliability of a procedure for investigation of flooding into an ungauged river reach close to an urban area is investigated. The approach is based on the application of a semi‐distributed rainfall–runoff model for a gauged basin, including the flood‐prone area, and that furnishes the inlet flow conditions for a two‐dimensional hydraulic model, whose computational domain is the urban area. The flood event, which occurred in October 1998 in the Upper Tiber river basin and caused significant damage in the town of Pieve S. Stefano, was used to test the approach. The built‐up area, often inundated, is included in the gauged basin of the Montedoglio dam (275 km²), for which the rainfall–runoff model was adapted and calibrated through three flood events without over‐bank flow. With the selected set of parameters, the hydrological model was found reasonably accurate in simulating the discharge hydrograph of the three events, whereas the flood event of October 1998 was simulated poorly, with an error in peak discharge and time to peak of −58% and 20%, respectively. This discrepancy was ascribed to the combined effect of the rainfall spatial variability and a partial obstruction of the bridge located in Pieve S. Stefano. In fact, taking account of the last hypothesis, the hydraulic model reproduced with a fair accuracy the observed flooded urban area. Moreover, incorporating into the hydrological model the flow resulting from a sudden cleaning of the obstruction, which was simulated by a ‘shock‐capturing’ one‐dimensional hydraulic model, the discharge hydrograph at the basin outlet was well represented if the rainfall was supposed to have occurred in the region near the main channel. This was simulated by reducing considerably the dynamic parameter, the lag time, of the instantaneous unit hydrograph for each homogeneous element into which the basin is divided. The error in peak discharge and time to peak decreased by a few percent. A sensitivity analysis of both the flooding volume involved in the shock wave and the lag time showed that this latter parameter requires a careful evaluation. Moreover, the analysis of the hydrograph peak prediction due to error in rainfall input showed that the error in peak discharge was lower than that of the same input error quantity. Therefore, the obtained results allowed us to support the hypothesis on the causes which triggered the complex event occurring in October 1998, and pointed out that the proposed procedure can be conveniently adopted for flood risk evaluation in ungauged river basins where a built‐up area is located. The need for a more detailed analysis regarding the processes of runoff generation and flood routing is also highlighted. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling detention basins measured from high‐resolution light detection and ranging data

The construction of stormwater detention basins is a best management practice to effectively control floods, to provide additional surface storage for excess floodwater and to compensate for the adverse effects of urban development. Traditional field‐based levelling survey methods are very time consuming and subject to human‐induced arbitrariness and error. This article presents an approach to modelling detention basins measured from light detection and ranging remote sensing data. A case study is illustrated by using the White Oak Bayou watershed of Harris County, Texas. The storage–stage curve obtained from the volumetric analysis is used in a modified detention basins routing model, which was developed by adding the weir structure control to the traditional hydrologic reservoir routing equations. The model simulation showed that the peak flow of the synthetic 100‐year reoccurrence event was effectively reduced and delayed by the detention basins. The comparison with the simulation results from the traditional reservoir routing model suggested that previous studies using the reservoir routing model were likely to underestimate the flood reduction effect of detention basins. The sensitivity analysis of the parameters showed that the detention basin design and evaluation should pay more attention on the weir height and river channel's roughness. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

南四湖“三湖两河”洪水演算数值模型优化

南四湖是中国北方最大的淡水湖泊,由南阳湖、独山湖、昭阳湖和微山湖4个湖区串联而成,地形复杂,洪水易涨难消,与滨湖区涝水交换频繁,建立兼顾效率和精度的洪水演算模型复杂困难.基于1960s提出的用"三湖"和"两河"来概化模拟南四湖洪水的理念与"三湖两河"半图解法洪水演算模型,采用四阶龙格库塔法代替半图解法,改进"三湖两河"洪水演算模型,对比分析计算精度、效率和灵活性,"三湖两河"洪水演算数值解模型优于半图解法;分析了滨湖排水模数、"两河"传播历时等模型经验参数的敏感性,以及韩庄闸水位—流量关系变动对湖泊高水位的影响,据此提出了南四湖洪涝治理的若干建议.南四湖"三湖两河"洪水演算数值解模型可作为南四湖洪水管理的基础工具,因地制宜的建模思路对类似湖库具有重要参考价值.     

Water and nutrient predictions in ungauged basins: set-up and evaluation of a model at the national scale

Abstract

A dynamic water quality model, HYPE, was applied to a large, data-sparse region to study whether reliable information on water quantity and water quality could be obtained for both gauged and ungauged waterbodies. The model (called S-HYPE) was set up for all of Sweden (～450 000 km²), divided into sub-basins with an average area of 28 km². Readily available national databases were used for physiographic data, emissions and agricultural practices, fixed values for representative years were used. Daily precipitation and temperature were used as the dynamic forcing of the model. Model evaluation was based on data from several hundred monitoring sites, of which approximately 90% had not been used in calibration on a daily scale. Results were evaluated using the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), correlation and relative errors: 92% of the spatial variation was explained for specific water discharge, and 88% and 59% for total nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations, respectively. Day-to-day variations were modelled with satisfactory results for water discharge and the seasonal variation of nitrogen concentrations was also generally well captured. In 20 large, unregulated rivers the median NSE for water discharge was 0.84, and the corresponding number for 76 partly-regulated river basins was 0.52. In small basins, the NSE was typically above 0.6. These major achievements relative to previous similar experiments were ascribed to the step-wise calibration process using representative gauged basins and the use of a modelling concept, whereby coefficients are linked to physiographic variables rather than to specific sites.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Strömqvist, J., Arheimer, B., Dahné, J., Donnelly, C. and Lindström, G., 2012. Water and nutrient predictions in ungauged basins: set-up and evaluation of a model at the national scale. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (2), 229–247.