Assessing the skill of the UK Hydrological Outlook

ABSTRACT

The UK Hydrological Outlook (UKHO) is a seasonal forecast of future river flows and groundwater levels. The UKHO contains both presentations of outputs from models simulating future conditions and a high-level summary. The summary is produced by an expert panel of forecasters that considers the model outputs together with other recent hydrological and meteorological information. Whilst the skill and uncertainty of the individual models have been explored and published, this study sets out to establish the performance of the high-level summary, and presents such an assessment of the river flow forecasts at the 1-month timescale. Both qualitative and quantitative assessments are presented and compared with two naïve forecasting methods. The UKHO summary is found to have a similar Gerrity skill score to a “same as last month” forecast, an outcome that generates suggestions for improvements in how the different model outputs should be considered and presented in the high-level summary.     

An approach for the determination of precipitation input for worst-case flood modelling

ABSTRACT

There is a lack of suitable methods for creating precipitation scenarios that can be used to realistically estimate peak discharges with very low probabilities. On the one hand, existing methods are methodically questionable when it comes to physical system boundaries. On the other hand, the spatio-temporal representativeness of precipitation patterns as system input is limited. In response, this paper proposes a method of deriving spatio-temporal precipitation patterns and presents a step towards making methodically correct estimations of infrequent floods by using a worst-case approach. A Monte Carlo approach allows for the generation of a wide range of different spatio-temporal distributions of an extreme precipitation event that can be tested with a rainfall–runoff model that generates a hydrograph for each of these distributions. Out of these numerous hydrographs and their corresponding peak discharges, the physically plausible spatio-temporal distributions that lead to the highest peak discharges are identified and can eventually be used for further investigations.

Editor A. Castellarin; Associate editor E. Volpi     

Probabilistic calibration of a distributed hydrological model for flood forecasting

Abstract

The complexity of distributed hydrological models has led to improvements in calibration methodologies in recent years. There are various manual, automatic and hybrid methods of calibration. Most use a single objective function to calculate estimation errors. The use of multi-objective calibration improves results, since different aspects of the hydrograph may be considered simultaneously. However, the uncertainty of estimates from a hydrological model can only be taken into account by using a probabilistic approach. This paper presents a calibration method of probabilistic nature, based on the determination of probability functions that best characterize different parameters of the model. The method was applied to the Real-time Interactive Basin Simulator (RIBS) distributed hydrological model using the Manzanares River basin in Spain as a case study. The proposed method allows us to consider the uncertainty in the model estimates by obtaining the probability distributions of flows in the flood hydrograph.

Citation Mediero, L., Garrote, L. & Martín-Carrasco, F. J. (2011) Probabilistic calibration of a distributed hydrological model for flood forecasting. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(7), 1129–1149.     

Comparing expert judgement and numerical criteria for hydrograph evaluation

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between expert judgement and numerical criteria when evaluating hydrological model performance by comparing simulated and observed hydrographs. Using a web-based survey, we collected the visual evaluations of 150 experts on a set of high- and low-flow hydrographs. We then compared these answers with results from 60 numerical criteria. Agreement between experts was found to be more frequent in absolute terms (when rating models) than in relative terms (when comparing models), and better for high flows than for low flows. When comparing the set of 150 expert judgements with numerical criteria, we found that most expert judgements were loosely correlated with a numerical criterion, and that the criterion that best reflects expert judgement varies from expert to expert. Overall, we identified two groups of 10 criteria yielding an equivalent match with the expertise of the 150 participants in low and high flows, respectively. A single criterion common to both groups (the Hydrograph Matching Algorithm with mean absolute error) may represent a good indicator for the overall evaluation of models based on hydrographs. We conclude that none of the numerical criteria examined here can fully replace expert judgement when rating hydrographs, and that both relative and absolute evaluations should be based on the judgement of multiple experts.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis     

Relationship between precipitation phase and air temperature: comparison between the Bolivian Andes and the Swiss Alps / Relation entre phase de précipitation et température de l'air: comparaison entre les Andes Boliviennes et les Alpes Suisses

Abstract

Determining the precipitation phase—rain or snow—is an important factor in modelling discharge in mountainous basins. In a study carried out in the outer tropical Andes Cordillera of Bolivia, half-hourly determination of precipitation phase was obtained by applying a suitable expert system, taking 11 meteorological parameters into consideration that are measured over 21 months at an altitude close to 4800 m. Straightforward relationships between the determined precipitation phase and observed air temperature were analysed in histograms that contain percentage occurrences of snowfall, rainfall and mixed precipitation events for 0.5°C air temperature increments. The graph shows a nearly identical distribution of percentage occurrences of snowfall in the Andes to that on a 1600-m high site in the Swiss Alps. This result suggests that, for hydrological modelling purposes in the outer tropical Andes, the same rain/snow threshold temperature as in the compared Swiss site can be applied.     

Long-range forecasts of River Po discharges based on predictable solar activity and a fuzzy neural network model / Prévisions à long terme des débits du Fleuve Pô basées sur l’activité solaire prévisible et sur un modèle de réseau de neurones flou

Abstract

Abstract Is it possible to make seasonal and interannual forecasts of hydrological variables if one cannot predict next week’s rainfall? Contrary to common view, some scientists support the hypothesis that variations in mean global temperature and precipitation are controlled more by external forcing (solar variability and volcanic eruptions) than by increasing atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases. Temperature and precipitation are connected with special phases of the 11-year sunspot cycle, which coincide with significant accumulation of energetic solar eruptions. Because of the possibility of identifying years with many solar eruptions, the attractive prospect emerges of the long-term hydrological forecasting based on cycles of solar activity. Starting from this assumption, an expert system was built based on a fuzzy neural network model for seasonal and interannual forecasting of the Po River discharge. It was found that indices of solar activity and of global circulation are sufficient to yield useful forecasts of hydrological variables.     

E-monitoring the nature of water

ABSTRACT

The critical need for hydrological observations in support of water resources management, particularly during extreme events, has transformed traditional methods of hydrological data management. This transformation has given rise to a framework of e-monitoring the hydrological cycle, the aim of which is to improve understanding of the nature of water. New trends in data science, coupled with increasing technological evolution, make the new generation of data systems more agile and responsive to the needs and expectations for efficient and effective data sharing and service delivery. The WMO Hydrological Observing System was designed around the integration of observations, data exchange, research, data processing, modelling and forecasting, in such a way that societal needs for disaster risk reduction, improved sustainability of environmental resources, climate resilience and economic growth can be effectively met. With its implementation of conceptual functionalities for sustainable data management, the WHOS operational architecture is hydrology’s system for the future.     

Characterization of a cavern conduit system in Vietnam by time series correlation,cross-spectrum and wavelet analyses / Caractérisation du système du conduit d’une grotte au Vietnam par des analyses corrélatoires,spectrales-croisées et en ondelettes de séries temporelles

Abstract

Abstract Time series analyses are applied to characterize the transient flow regimes of the Nam La cavern conduit, northwest Vietnam. The conduit transforms the input signal to an output signal, and the degree of transformation provides information on the nature of the flow system. The input for the analysis is net precipitation and the flow hydrograph at the cave entrance, while the output series is the flow hydrograph at the resurgence. Cross-correlation and cross-spectrum analysis are used to investigate the stationarity and linearity of the input–output transformation of the system, resulting in hydrodynamic properties such as system memory, response time, and mean delay between input and output. It is shown that during high flow periods, the flow in the conduit is pressurized. Consequently, the linear input–output assumption holds only for low flows. To highlight the hydrodynamics of the cavern conduit for the high flow periods, wavelet spectrum and wavelet cross-spectrum analyses are applied.     

G) Personalia

Abstract

This paper proposes a framework for identifying the parameters of a lumped routing model in small to medium sized catchments where lateral inflows can be large but poorly defined. In a first step, a priori estimates of the parameters are made based on topography, aerial photographs, flood marks and field surveys. In a second step, runoff data are analysed of reservoir release events and convective events where no rainfall in the direct catchments occurred. In a third step the routing model is calibrated to the results of hydrodynamic models for scenarios of different magnitudes. In a fourth step, these pieces of information are combined, allowing for soft expert judgement to be incorporated. In a fifth step, the routing parameters are fine tuned to observed flood events where lateral inflows are estimated by a rainfall—runoff model. The framework is illustrated by the Kamp flood forecasting system in Austria that has been in operational use since 2006.     

A new measure for assessing the efficiency of hydrological data-driven forecasting models

Abstract

There is a lack of consistency and generality in assessing the performance of hydrological data-driven forecasting models, and this paper presents a new measure for evaluating that performance. Despite the fact that the objectives of hydrological data-driven forecasting models differ from those of the conventional hydrological simulation models, criteria designed to evaluate the latter models have been used until now to assess the performance of the former. Thus, the objectives of this paper are, firstly, to examine the limitations in applying conventional methods for evaluating the data-driven forecasting model performance, and, secondly, to present new performance evaluation methods that can be used to evaluate hydrological data-driven forecasting models with consistency and objectivity. The relative correlation coefficient (RCC) is used to estimate the forecasting efficiency relative to the naïve model (unchanged situation) in data-driven forecasting. A case study with 12 artificial data sets was performed to assess the evaluation measures of Persistence Index (PI), Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSC) and RCC. In particular, for six of the data sets with strong persistence and autocorrelation coefficients of 0.966–0.713 at correlation coefficients of 0.977–0.989, the PIs varied markedly from 0.368 to 0.930 and the NSCs were almost constant in the range 0.943–0.972, irrespective of the autocorrelation coefficients and correlation coefficients. However, the RCCs represented an increase of forecasting efficiency from 2.1% to 37.8% according to the persistence. The study results show that RCC is more useful than conventional evaluation methods as the latter do not provide a metric rating of model improvement relative to naïve models in data-driven forecasting.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis, Associate editor D. Yang

Citation Hwang, S.H., Ham, D.H., and Kim, J.H., 2012. A new measure for assessing the efficiency of hydrological data-driven forecasting models. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (7), 1257–1274.     

Something old,something new,something red,something blue*

Abstract

Hydrologists responsible for flood management need real-time data in order to manage imminent or ongoing floods. In this paper, innovative methods for accessing hydrological data and their spatial visualization are introduced. A multitude of relevant real-time, forecast and historical information is provided in a single, self-updating hydrological map information system. The system consists of a central database and a cartographic user interface and provides harmonized and filtered data in the form of interactive, customizable maps. Maps may also be cross-referenced with historical maps or may be animated for improved comprehension and decision making. Emphasis is placed on the development of the hydrological real-time database that manages large amounts of spatial, temporal and attributive data. The paper focuses on the cartographic user interface, its functionality and the resulting interactive hydrological maps.

Citation Lienert, C., Weingartner, R. &; Hurni, L. (2011) An interactive, web-based, real-time hydrological map information system. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(1), 1–16     

Delivering environmental flows in the Murray-Darling Basin (Australia)—legal and governance aspects

Abstract

The hydrology of water-dependent ecosystems around the world has been altered as a result of flow regulation and extraction for a variety of purposes including agricultural and urban water supply. The flow regime of the Murray-Darling Basin in Australia is no exception, with attendant impacts on the health of the environment. Restoration of parts of the flow regime is a key feature of environmental flow delivery. However, environmental flow delivery in a system that is managed primarily to provide a secure and stable supply for irrigation presents challenges for managers seeking to return more natural flow variability in line with ecosystem requirements. The institutional arrangements governing releases of water from storage can influence the ability of managers to respond to natural cues, such as naturally rising flows in a river. As such, the legal and governance aspects of environmental flow delivery are likely to be important influences on the outcomes achieved.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor M. Acreman

Citation Banks, S.A. and Docker, B.B., 2014. Delivering environmental flows in the Murray-Darling Basin (Australia)—legal and governance aspects. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (3–4), 688–699.     

Review of methods used to estimate catchment response time for the purpose of peak discharge estimation

Abstract

Large errors in peak discharge estimates at catchment scales can be ascribed to errors in the estimation of catchment response time. The time parameters most frequently used to express catchment response time are the time of concentration (T_C), lag time (T_L) and time to peak (T_P). This paper presents a review of the time parameter estimation methods used internationally, with selected comparisons in medium and large catchments in the C5 secondary drainage region in South Africa. The comparison of different time parameter estimation methods with recommended methods used in South Africa confirmed that the application of empirical methods, with no local correction factors, beyond their original developmental regions, must be avoided. The T_C is recognized as the most frequently used time parameter, followed by T_L. In acknowledging this, as well as the basic assumptions of the approximations T_L = 0.6T_C and T_C ≈ T_P, along with the similarity between the definitions of the T_P and the conceptual T_C, it was evident that the latter two time parameters should be further investigated to develop an alternative approach to estimate representative response times that result in improved estimates of peak discharge at these catchment scales.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor Qiang Zhang     

Comparison between the peaks-over-threshold method and the annual maximum method for flood frequency analysis

Abstract

Flood frequency analysis can be made by using two types of flood peak series, i.e. the annual maximum (AM) and peaks-over-threshold (POT) series. This study presents a comparison of the results of both methods for data from the Litija 1 gauging station on the Sava River in Slovenia. Six commonly used distribution functions and three different parameter estimation techniques were considered in the AM analyses. The results showed a better performance for the method of L-moments (ML) when compared with the conventional moments and maximum likelihood estimation. The combination of the ML and the log-Pearson type 3 distribution gave the best results of all the considered AM cases. The POT method gave better results than the AM method. The binomial distribution did not offer any noticeable improvement over the Poisson distribution for modelling the annual number of exceedences above the threshold.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Bezak, N., Brilly, M., and ?raj, M., 2014. Comparison between the peaks-over-threshold method and the annual maximum method for flood frequency analysis. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (5), 959–977.     

A new approach to rapid,desktop-level,environmental flow assessments for rivers in South Africa

Abstract

An approach is presented for desktop-level environmental flow requirement (EFR) determination that is aligned with the Habitat Flow–Stressor Response (HFSR) method which evolved in South Africa over recent years. The HFSR method integrates hydrological, hydraulic and ecological habitat data, involves ecological and hydraulic specialists and is data-intensive and time-consuming. The revised desktop method integrates hydrological information with estimates of channel hydraulic cross-sectional characteristics to generate habitat-type frequencies under changing flow conditions. This information is used with the expected natural habitat requirements to determine acceptable habitat availability under different levels of ecological protection, which is then used with the hydraulic data to define flow regime characteristics that meet the ecological objectives. The paper describes the model components, discusses the assumptions, data requirements and limitations and presents some example results. The revised desktop approach uses approaches that are aligned with the more complex methods and generates results that are similar.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Guest editor M. Acreman

Citation Hughes, D.A., Desai, A.Y., Birkhead, A.L., and Louw, D., 2014. A new approach to rapid, desktop-level, environmental flow assessments for rivers in South Africa. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (3–4), 673–687.     

Data-driven modelling approaches for socio-hydrology: opportunities and challenges within the Panta Rhei Science Plan

ABSTRACT

“Panta Rhei – Everything Flows” is the science plan for the International Association of Hydrological Sciences scientific decade 2013–2023. It is founded on the need for improved understanding of the mutual, two-way interactions occurring at the interface of hydrology and society, and their role in influencing future hydrologic system change. It calls for strategic research effort focused on the delivery of coupled, socio-hydrologic models. In this paper we explore and synthesize opportunities and challenges that socio-hydrology presents for data-driven modelling. We highlight the potential for a new era of collaboration between data-driven and more physically-based modellers that should improve our ability to model and manage socio-hydrologic systems. Crucially, we approach data-driven, conceptual and physical modelling paradigms as being complementary rather than competing, positioning them along a continuum of modelling approaches that reflects the relative extent to which hypotheses and/or data are available to inform the model development process.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis; ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned     

Flood management and a GIS modelling method to assess flood-hazard areas—a case study

Abstract

This paper presents a viable approach for flood management strategy in a river basin based on the European Floods Directive. A reliable flood management plan has two components: (a) a proper flood management strategy, and (b) the determination of the flood-hazard areas. A method to evaluate the benefits of a flood warning system is presented herein, as well as a method to estimate the flood-hazard areas. Six factors were considered in order to estimate the spatial distribution of the hazardous areas: flow accumulation, slope, land use, rainfall intensity, geology and elevation. The study area was divided into five regions characterized by different degrees of flood hazard ranging from very low to very high. The produced map of flood-hazard areas identifies the areas and settlements at high risk of flooding. The proposed methodology can be applied to any river basin and here was applied to the Koiliaris River basin in Greece.

Citation Kourgialas, N. N. & Karatzas, G. P. (2011) Flood management and a GIS modelling method to assess flood-hazard areas—a case study. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(2), 212–225.     

Estimating the uncertainty in simulating the impacts of small farm dams on streamflow regimes in South Africa

Abstract

Small dams represent an important local-scale resource designed to increase water supply reliability in many parts of the world where hydrological variability is high. There is evidence that the number of farm dams has increased substantially over the last few decades. These developments can have a substantial impact on downstream flow volumes and patterns, water use and ecological functioning. The study reports on the application of a hydrological modelling approach to investigate the uncertainty associated with simulating the impacts of farm dams in several South African catchments. The focus of the study is on sensitivity analysis and the limitations of the data that would be typically available for water resources assessments. The uncertainty mainly arises from the methods and information that are available to estimate the dam properties and the water use from the dams. The impacts are not only related to the number and size of dams, but also the extent to which they are used for water supply as well as the nature of the climate and the natural hydrological regimes. The biggest source of uncertainty in South Africa appears to be associated with a lack of reliable information on volumes and patterns of water abstraction from the dams.

Citation Hughes, D. A. & Mantel, S. K. (2010) Estimating the uncertainty in simulating the impacts of small farm dams on streamflow regimes in South Africa. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(4), 578–592.