Using a transient infiltrometric technique for intensively sampling field‐saturated hydraulic conductivity of a clay soil in two runoff plots

The point measurement of soil properties allows to explain and simulate plot scale hydrological processes. An intensive sampling was carried out at the surface of an unsaturated clay soil to measure, on two adjacent plots of 4 × 11 m² and two different dates (May 2007 and February–March 2008), dry soil bulk density, ρ_b, and antecedent soil water content, θ_i, at 88 points. Field‐saturated soil hydraulic conductivity, K_fs, was also measured at 176 points by the transient Simplified Falling Head technique to determine the soil water permeability characteristics at the beginning of a possible rainfall event yielding measurable runoff. The ρ_b values did not differ significantly between the two dates, but wetter soil conditions (by 31%) and lower conductivities (1.95 times) were detected on the second date as compared with the first one. Significantly higher (by a factor of 1.8) K_fs values were obtained with the 0.30‐m‐diameter ring compared with the 0.15‐m‐diameter ring. A high K_fs (> 100 mm h^?1) was generally obtained for low θ_i values (< 0.3 m³m^?3), whereas a high θ_i yielded an increased percentage of low K_fs data (1–100 mm h^?1). The median of K_fs for each plot/sampling date combination was not lower than 600 mm h^?1, and rainfall intensities rarely exceeded 100 mm h^?1 at the site. The occurrence of runoff at the base of the plot needs a substantial reduction of the surface soil permeability characteristics during the event, probably promoted by a higher water content than the one of this investigation (saturation degree = 0.44–0.62) and some soil compaction due to rainfall impact. An intensive soil sampling reduces the risk of an erroneous interpretation of hydrological processes. In an unstable clay soil, changes in K_fs during the event seem to have a noticeable effect on runoff generation, and they should be considered for modeling hydrological processes. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Statistical analysis of the effects on overland flow of spatial variability in soil hydraulic conductivity / Analyse statistique des effets de la variabilité spatiale de la conductivité hydraulique du sol sur l'écoulement de surface

Abstract

The effects of spatial variation of the saturated hydraulic conductivity (K _s ) of the soil on the variation of overland flow were tested by analysing 2000 synthetic rainfall—runoff events, all generated from real, observed rainfall events but with runoff modelled by a two-dimensional distributed model using different spatially variable K _s fields in a small (12 ha) agricultural catchment. The purpose is to determine the influence of spatial variation in K _s on runoff generation. The statistical measures used to describe the variation in the generated K _s were its coefficient of variation and correlation length. Both of these had two levels of typical values obtained from field measurements in other studies. The storms were analysed at a general event level, first using simple graphical and statistical methods and then using analysis of variance (ANOVA). The observed scale of the spatial variation of K _s does cause statistically significant variation in overland flow. The graphical analysis showed that the first flow peak in a multi-event storm had the largest variation and that differences were greater in the rising part of the hydrograph than in its recession. The greatest variation in overland flow was produced by the combination of the greater coefficient of variation and the longer correlation lengths. The smallest variation in overland flow was produced by the combination of the smaller coefficient of variation and the shorter correlation lengths. ANOVA showed that the coefficient of variation and correlation length alone did not explain all the variation of the total flow. ANOVA was not very useful due to the many restrictive assumptions that were not satisfied by the nature of the data and therefore analysis methods with less restrictive assumptions need to be tested.     

In situ measurements of soil saturated hydraulic conductivity: Assessment of reliability through rainfall–runoff experiments

The saturated hydraulic conductivity, K_s, is a soil property that has a key role in the partitioning of rainfall into surface runoff and infiltration. The commonly used instruments and methods for in situ measurements of K_s have frequently provided conflicting results. Comparison of K_s estimates obtained by three classical devices—namely, the double ring infiltrometer (DRI), the Guelph version of the constant‐head well permeameter (GUELPH‐CHP) and the CSIRO version of the tension permeameter (CSIRO‐TP) is presented. A distinguishing feature in this study is the use of steady deep flow rates, obtained from controlled rainfall–runoff experiments, as benchmark values of K_s at local and field‐plot scales, thereby enabling an assessment of these methods in reliably reproducing repeatable values and in their capability of determining plot‐scale variation of K_s. We find that the DRI grossly overestimates K_s, the GUELPH‐CHP gives conflicting estimates of K_s with substantial overestimation in laboratory experiments and underestimation at the plot scale, whereas the CSIRO‐TP yields average K_s values with significant errors of 24% in the plot scale experiment and 66% in laboratory experiments. Although the DRI would likely yield a better estimate of the nature of variability than the GUELPH‐CHP and CSIRO‐TP, a separate calibration may be warranted to correct for the overestimation of K_s values. The reasons for such discrepancies within and between the measurement methods are not yet fully understood and serve as motivation for future work to better characterize the uncertainty associated with individual measurements of K_s using these methods and the characterization of field scale variability from multiple local measurements.     

Runoff modelling at two field slopes: use of in situ measurements of air permeability to characterize spatial variability of saturated hydraulic conductivity

The time required at a field site to obtain a few measurements of saturated hydraulic conductivity (K_s) will allow for many measurements of soil air permeability (k_a). This study investigates if k_a measured in situ (k_{a, in situ}) can be a substitute for measurement of K_s in relation to infiltration and surface runoff modelling. Measurements of k_{a, in situ} were carried out in two small agricultural catchments. A spatial correlation of the log‐transformed values existed having a range of approximately 100 m. A predictive relationship between K_s and k_a measured on 100‐cm³ soil samples in the laboratory was derived for one of the field slopes and showed good agreement with an earlier suggested predictive K_s–k_a relationship. In situ measurements of K_s and k_a suggested that the predictive relationships also could be used at larger scale. The K_s–k_a relationships together with the k_{a, in situ} data were applied in a distributed surface runoff (DSR) model, simulating a high‐intensity rainfall event. The DSR simulation results were highly dependent on whether the geometric average of k_{a, in situ} or kriged values of k_{a, in situ} was used as model input. When increasing the resolution of K_s in the DSR model, a limit of 30–40 m was found for both field slopes. Below this limit, the simulated runoff and hydrograph peaks were independent of resolution scale. If only a few randomly chosen values of K_s were used to represent the spatial variation within the field slope, very large deviations in repeated DSR simulation results were obtained, both with respect to peak height and hydrograph shape. In contrast, when using many predicted K_s values based on a K_s–k_a relationship and measured k_{a, in situ} data, the DSR model generally captured the correct hydrograph shape although simulations were sensitive to the chosen K_s–k_a relationship. As massive measurement efforts normally will be required to obtain a satisfactory representation of the spatial variability in K_s, the use of k_{a, in situ} to assess spatial variability in K_s appears a promising alternative. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Two-Dimensional Probabilistic Infiltration Analysis in a Hillslope Using First-Order Moment Approach

A first-order moment analysis method is introduced to evaluate the pore-water pressure variability within a hillslope due to spatial variability in saturated hydraulic conductivity (K_s) during rainfall. The influences of the variance of the natural logarithm of K_s(ln K_s), spatial structure anisotropy of ln K_s, and normalized vertical infiltration flux (q) on the evaluations of the pore-water pressure uncertainty are investigated. Results indicate different responses of pressure head variability in the unsaturated region and the saturated region. In the unsaturated region, a larger variance of ln K_s, a higher spatial structure anisotropy, and a smaller q lead to a larger variability in pressure head, while in the saturated region, the variability in pressure head increases with the increase of variance of ln K_s, the decrease of spatial structure anisotropy, or the increase of q. These variables have great impacts on the range of fluctuation of the phreatic surface within the hillslope. The influences of these three variables on the variance of pressure head within the saturated region are greater than those within the unsaturated region, and the variance of ln K_s has the greatest impact. These results yield useful insight into the effects of heterogeneity on pressure head and uncertainty associated with predicted flow field.     

A semi-analytical model of expected areal-average infiltration under spatial heterogeneity of rainfall and soil saturated hydraulic conductivity

A semi-analytical model for the estimate of expected areal-average infiltration rate at hillslope scale is presented. It accounts for spatial heterogeneity of the saturated hydraulic conductivity, K_s, and rainfall rate, r. The K_s field is characterized by a lognormal probability density function while the rainfall rate r is represented by a uniform distribution between two extreme values. The model formulation relies upon the use of cumulative infiltration as the independent variable which is then expressed as a function of an expected time for use in practical applications. The solution is applicable for those ranges of r and K_s that allow for neglecting the infiltration of surface water running downslope into pervious soils (run-on process). The model was tested by comparisons with Monte Carlo simulations carried out for a variety of coefficients of variation of r and K_s over a clay loam soil and a sandy loam soil. The model was found to be very reliable both with coupled spatial variability of r and K_s and when only one variable is characterized by spatial heterogeneity while the other is uniform.     

A field‐scale infiltration model accounting for spatial heterogeneity of rainfall and soil saturated hydraulic conductivity

This study first explores the role of spatial heterogeneity, in both the saturated hydraulic conductivity K_s and rainfall intensity r, on the integrated hydrological response of a natural slope. On this basis, a mathematical model for estimating the expected areal‐average infiltration is then formulated. Both K_s and r are considered as random variables with assessed probability density functions. The model relies upon a semi‐analytical component, which describes the directly infiltrated rainfall, and an empirical component, which accounts further for the infiltration of surface water running downslope into pervious soils (the run‐on effect). Monte Carlo simulations over a clay loam soil and a sandy loam soil were performed for constructing the ensemble averages of field‐scale infiltration used for model validation. The model produced very accurate estimates of the expected field‐scale infiltration rate, as well as of the outflow generated by significant rainfall events. Furthermore, the two model components were found to interact appropriately for different weights of the two infiltration mechanisms involved. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparative assessment of two distributed watershed models with application to a small watershed

Distributed watershed models are beneficial tools for the assessment of management practices on runoff and water‐induced erosion. This paper evaluates, by application to an experimental watershed, two promising distributed watershed‐scale sediment models in detail: the Kinematic Runoff and Erosion (KINEROS‐2) model and the Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) model. The physics behind each model are to some extent similar, though they have different watershed conceptualizations. KINEROS‐2 was calibrated using three rainfall events and validated over four separate rainfall events. Parameters estimated by this calibration process were adapted to GSSHA. With these parameters, GSSHA generated larger and retarded flow hydrographs. A 30% reduction in both plane and channel roughness in GSSHA along with the assumption of Green‐Ampt conductivity K_G‐A = K_s, where K_s is the saturated conductivity, resulted in almost identical hydrographs. Sediment parameters not common in both models were calibrated independently of KINEROS‐2. A comparative discussion of simulation results is presented. Even though GSSHA's flow component slightly overperformed KINEROS‐2, the latter outperformed GSSHA in simulations for sediment transport. In spite of the fact that KINEROS‐2 is not geared toward continuous‐time simulations, simulations performed with both models over a 1 month period generated comparable results. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Infiltration and runoff generation processes in fire‐affected soils

Post‐wildfire runoff was investigated by combining field measurements and modelling of infiltration into fire‐affected soils to predict time‐to‐start of runoff and peak runoff rate at the plot scale (1 m²). Time series of soil‐water content, rainfall and runoff were measured on a hillslope burned by the 2010 Fourmile Canyon Fire west of Boulder, Colorado during cyclonic and convective rainstorms in the spring and summer of 2011. Some of the field measurements and measured soil physical properties were used to calibrate a one‐dimensional post‐wildfire numerical model, which was then used as a ‘virtual instrument’ to provide estimates of the saturated hydraulic conductivity and high‐resolution (1 mm) estimates of the soil‐water profile and water fluxes within the unsaturated zone. Field and model estimates of the wetting‐front depth indicated that post‐wildfire infiltration was on average confined to shallow depths less than 30 mm. Model estimates of the effective saturated hydraulic conductivity, K_s, near the soil surface ranged from 0.1 to 5.2 mm h^?1. Because of the relatively small values of K_s, the time‐to‐start of runoff (measured from the start of rainfall), t_p, was found to depend only on the initial soil‐water saturation deficit (predicted by the model) and a measured characteristic of the rainfall profile (referred to as the average rainfall acceleration, equal to the initial rate of change in rainfall intensity). An analytical model was developed from the combined results and explained 92–97% of the variance of t_p, and the numerical infiltration model explained 74–91% of the variance of the peak runoff rates. These results are from one burned site, but they strongly suggest that t_p in fire‐affected soils (which often have low values of K_s) is probably controlled more by the storm profile and the initial soil‐water saturation deficit than by soil hydraulic properties. Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.     

Variation in soil saturated hydraulic conductivity along the hillslope of collapsing granite gullies

Saturated hydraulic conductivity (K_s) affects the soil hydrological process and is influenced by many factors that exhibit strong spatial variations. To accurately measure K_s and its scale, spatial variability and relationship with collapsing gullies, we analysed four double-ring infiltrometer diameters in three soil layers during in situ experiments designed to measure K_s in two typical collapsing gullies (three slope sites) in Tongcheng County of China. The results showed that K_s increased with increasing inner ring diameter, but no significant difference existed between inner diameters of 30 and 40 cm. The K_s in red soil layers was higher than that in sandy soil layers, the transition layers had the lowest values. K_s also varied with slope position, gradually decreasing with distance from the gully head. The suggestion is that the spatial variation in K_s is affected not only by the intrinsic soil properties but also by the interaction with the collapsing gully.     

A spatially distributed Clark’s unit hydrograph based hybrid hydrologic model (Distributed-Clark)

ABSTRACT

A hybrid hydrologic model (Distributed-Clark), which is a lumped conceptual and distributed feature model, was developed based on the combined concept of Clark’s unit hydrograph and its spatial decomposition methods, incorporating refined spatially variable flow dynamics to implement hydrological simulation for spatially distributed rainfall–runoff flow. In Distributed-Clark, the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) curve number method is utilized to estimate spatially distributed runoff depth and a set of separated unit hydrographs is used for runoff routing to obtain a direct runoff flow hydrograph. Case studies (four watersheds in the central part of the USA) using spatially distributed (Thiessen polygon-based) rainfall data of storm events were used to evaluate the model performance. Results demonstrate relatively good fit to observed streamflow, with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (E_NS) of 0.84 and coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.86, as well as a better fit in comparison with outputs of spatially averaged rainfall data simulations for two models including HEC-HMS.     

An investigation of lag times for rainfall–runoff–sediment yield events in small river basins / Une analyse des temps de réponse d'événements pluie–débit–transport solide au sein de petits bassins versants

Abstract

River basin lag time (LAG), defined as the elapsed time between the occurrence of the centroids of the effective rainfall intensity pattern and the storm runoff hydrograph, is an important factor in determining the time to peak and the peak value of the instantaneous unit hydrograph, IUH. In the procedure of predicting a sedimentgraph (suspended sediment load as a function of time), the equivalent parameter is the lag time for the sedimentgraph (LAG_s ), which is defined as the elapsed time between the occurrence of the centroids of sediment production during a storm event and the observed sedimentgraph at the gauging station. Results of analyses of rainfall, runoff and suspended sediment concentration event data collected from five small Carpathian basins in Poland and from a 2.31-ha agricultural basin, in central Illinois, USA have shown that LAG_s was, in the majority of cases, smaller than LAG, and that a significant linear relationship exists between LAG_s and LAG.     

Application of a conceptual method for separating runoff components in daily hydrographs in Kimakia forest catchments,Kenya

This paper highlights the use of a conceptual method for separating runoff components in daily hydrographs, contrary to the traditionally used graphical method of separation. In the conceptual method, the components, viz. surface flow, interflow and baseflow, are regarded as high, medium and low frequency signals and their separation is done using the principle of a recursive digital filter commonly used in signal analysis and processing. It requires estimates of the direct runoff (β_d) and surface runoff (β_s) filter parameters which are obtained by a least‐squares procedure involving baseflow and interflow indices based on graphical and recursive digital filter estimation techniques. The method thus circumvents the subjective element associated with the graphical procedure of hydrograph separation, in which case the eye approximation and/or one's skill at plotting is the prime basis for the whole analysis. The analysis based on three forest catchments in Kimakia, Kenya, East Africa, revealed that β_d=K_b and β_s=K_i , where K_b and K_i are the baseflow and interflow recession constants. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of rainfall movement on soil crust development

The impact of rainfall event movement on soil crust development was investigated via laboratory experiments and physics-based hydrological-response simulation.Runoff and soil water content data were analyzed in order to study different crustal development periods under a variety of precipitation conditions.The results showed that the formation of crust significantly changed soil saturated hydraulic conductivity(K_s) and runoff,while a steady state,which could be broken by an extended period of raindrop impact,was found to exist for both the crust and,subsequently,runoff characteristics.The decrease in K_S was as high as 86%for downstream-moving events,and 72%for upstream-moving events,illustrating that the direction of rainfall movement has a more significant impact on crust formation than rainfall intensity and duration.As downstream-moving rainfall events may have a greater effect than those moving upstream,the development of a depositional crust before raindrop impact may play an important role in determining the final K_S value.     

Streamflow and suspended sediment yield following the 2000 Bobcat fire,Colorado

Postfire runoff and erosion are a concern, and more data are needed on the effects of wildfire at the watershed‐scale, especially in the Colorado Front Range. The goal of this study was to characterize and compare the streamflow and suspended sediment yield response of two watersheds (Bobcat Gulch and Jug Gulch) after the 2000 Bobcat fire. Bobcat Gulch had several erosion control treatments applied after the fire, including aerial seeding, contour log felling, mulching, and straw wattles. Jug Gulch was partially seeded. Study objectives were to: (1) measure precipitation, streamflow, and sediment yields; (2) assess the effect of rainfall intensity on peak discharges, storm runoff, and sediment yields; (3) evaluate short‐term hydrologic recovery. Two months after the fire, a storm with a maximum 30 min rainfall intensity I₃₀ of 42 mm h^?1 generated a peak discharge of 3900 l s^?1 km^?2 in Bobcat Gulch. The same storm produced less than 5 l s^?1 km^?2 in Jug Gulch, due to less rainfall and the low watershed response. In the second summer, storms with, I₃₀ of 23 mm h^?1 and 32 mm h^?1 generated peak discharges of 1100 l s^?1 km^?2 and 1700 l s^?1 km^?2 in the treated and untreated watersheds respectively. Maximum water yield efficiencies were 10% and 17% respectively, but 18 of the 23 storms returned ≤2% of the rainfall as runoff, effectively obscuring interpretation of the erosion control treatments. I₃₀ explained 86% of the variability in peak discharges, 74% of the variability in storm runoff, and >80% of the variability in sediment yields. Maximum single‐storm sediment yields in the second summer were 370 kg ha^?1 in the treated watershed and 950 kg ha^?1 in the untreated watershed. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

巢湖流域塘西河上游分流制系统降雨径流污染特征及初期冲刷效应

研究城市径流水质变化及初期冲刷效应对控制与治理城市径流污染具有重要指导意义.对塘西河上游6次降雨径流水质水量进行监测分析,计算次降雨径流平均浓度(EMC)和单位面积次降雨径流污染负荷(EPL),作M(V)曲线图研究初期冲刷现象.结果表明:降雨径流中悬浮物(SS)、化学需氧量(CODCr)和总磷(TP)的EMC值相对较大;SS的EMC值波动最为显著;总氮(TN)、TP、COD_(Cr)、SS间的EMC值均呈正相关;TN的EMC值与降雨量呈负相关性.各污染物EPL值与各降雨特征间均呈正相关性,经估算2015年研究区在6-8月共有10.38 tTN、2.29 tTP、1022.43 t SS、161.70 t CODCr和5.18 t NH_3-N随降雨径流排入巢湖;降雨量和雨前干期是城市径流污染的主要影响因素;以FF5050为初期冲刷效应判别依据,5种污染物均有初期冲刷效应出现,冲刷程度表现为SSCODCrTPTNNH_3-N;各水质指标的初期冲刷强度与降雨特征之间无相关性;雨型对初期冲刷现象影响较大;当降雨强度达1.36 mm/h即有径流汇集流出时开始截流,截流时间取440 min,截取的最大径流量取224319.14 m~3.     

Incorporating spatially heterogeneous infiltration capacity into hydrologic models with applications for simulating post‐wildfire debris flow initiation

Soils in post‐wildfire environments are often characterized by a low infiltration capacity with a high degree of spatial heterogeneity relative to unburned areas. Debris flows are frequently initiated by run‐off in recently burned steeplands, making it critical to develop and test methods for incorporating spatial variability in infiltration capacity into hydrologic models. We use Monte Carlo simulations of run‐off generation over a soil with a spatially heterogenous saturated hydraulic conductivity (K_s) to derive an expression for an aerially averaged saturated hydraulic conductivity ( ) that depends on the rainfall rate, the statistical properties of K_s, and the spatial correlation length scale associated with K_s. The proposed method for determining is tested by simulating run‐off on synthetic topography over a wide range of spatial scales. Results provide a simplified expression for an effective saturated hydraulic conductivity that can be used to relate a distribution of small‐scale K_s measurements to infiltration and run‐off generation over larger spatial scales. Finally, we use a hydrologic model based on to simulate run‐off and debris flow initiation at a recently burned catchment in the Santa Ana Mountains, CA, USA, and compare results to those obtained using an infiltration model based on the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number.     

Runoff generation and sediment production on unpaved roads,footpaths and agricultural land surfaces in northern Thailand

Rainfall simulation was used to examine runoff generation and sediment transport on roads, paths and three types of agricultural fields in Pang Khum Experimental Watershed (PKEW), in mountainous northern Thailand. Because interception of subsurface flow by the road prism is rare in PKEW, work focused on Horton overland flow (HOF). Under dry antecedent soil moisture conditions, roads generated HOF in c. 1 min and have event runoff coefficients (ROCs) of 80 per cent, during 45 min, c. 105 mm h⁻¹ simulations. Runoff generation on agricultural fields required greater rainfall depths to initiate HOF; these surfaces had total ROCs ranging from 0 to 20 per cent. Footpaths are capable of generating erosion‐producing overland flow within agricultural surfaces where HOF generation is otherwise rare. Paths had saturated hydraulic conductivity (K_s) values 80–120 mm h⁻¹ lower than those of adjacent agricultural surfaces. Sediment production on roads exceeded that of footpaths and agricultural lands by more than eight times (1·23 versus < 0·15 g J⁻¹). Typically, high road runoff volumes (owing to low K_s, c. 15 mm h⁻¹) transported relatively high sediment loads. Initial road sediment concentrations exceeded 100 g l⁻¹, but decayed with time as loose surface material was removed. Compared with the loose surface layer, the compacted, underlying road surface was resistant to detachment forces. Sediment concentration values for the road simulations were slightly higher than data obtained from a 165 m road section during a comparable natural event. Initial simulation concentration values were substantially higher, but were nearly equivalent to those of the natural event after 20 min simulation time. Higher sediment concentration in the simulations was related to differences in the availability of loose surface material, which was more abundant during the dry‐season simulations than during the rainy season natural event. Sediment production on PKEW roads is sensitive to surface preparation processes affecting the supply of surface sediment, including vehicle detachment, maintenance activities, and mass wasting. The simulation data represent a foundation from which to begin parameterizing a physically based runoff/erosion model to study erosional impacts of roads in the study area. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Interrill erosion on cultivated Greek soils: modelling sediment delivery

For interrill erosion, raindrop‐induced detachment and transport of sediment by rainfall‐disturbed sheet flow are the predominant processes, while detachment by sheet flow and transport by raindrop impact are negligible. In general, interrill subprocesses are inter‐actively affected by rainfall, soil and surface properties. The objective of this work was to study the relationships among interrill runoff and sediment loss and some selected para‐meters, for cultivated soils in central Greece, and also the development of a formula for predicting single storm sediment delivery. Runoff and soil loss measurement field experiments have been conducted for a 3·5‐year period, under natural storms. The soils studied were developed on Tertiary calcareous materials and Quaternary alluvial deposits and were textured from sandy loam to clay. The second group of soils showed greater susceptibility to sealing and erosion than the first group. Single storm sediment loss was mainly affected by rain and runoff erosivity, being significantly correlated with rain kinetic energy (r = 0·64***), its maximum 30‐minute intensity (r = 0·64***) and runoff amount (r = 0·56***). Runoff had the greatest correlation with rain kinetic energy (r = 0·64***). A complementary effect on soil loss was detected between rain kinetic energy and its maximum 30‐minute intensity. The same was true for rain kinetic energy and topsoil aggregate instability, on surface seal formation and thus on infiltration characteristics and overland flow rate. Empirical analysis showed that the following formula can be used for the successful prediction of sediment delivery (D_i): D_i = 0·638βEI₃₀tan(θ) (R² = 0·893***), where β is a topsoil aggregate instability index, E the rain kinetic energy, I₃₀ the maximum 30‐minute rain intensity and θ the slope angle. It describes soil erodibility using a topsoil aggregate instability index, which can be determined easily by a simple laboratory technique, and runoff through the product of this index and rain kinetic energy. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.