Possible climate change/variability and human impacts,vulnerability of drought-prone regions,water resources and capacity building for Africa

ABSTRACT

This review article discusses the climate, water resources and historical droughts of Africa, drought indices, vulnerability, impact of global warming and land use for drought-prone regions in West, southern and the Greater Horn of Africa, which have suffered recurrent severe droughts in the past. Recent studies detected warming and drying trends in Africa since the mid 20th century. Based on the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), both northern and southern Africa are projected to experience drying, such as decreasing precipitation, runoff and soil moisture in the 21st century and could become more vulnerable to the impact of droughts. The daily maximum temperature is projected to increase by up to 8°C (RCP8.5 of CMIP5), precipitation indices such as total wet day precipitation (PRCPTOT) and heavy precipitation days (R10 mm) could decrease, while warm spell duration (WSDI) and consecutive dry days (CDD) could increase. Uncertainties of the above long-term projections, teleconnections to climate anomalies such as ENSO and the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which could also affect the water resources of Africa, and capacity building in terms of physical infrastructure and non-structural solutions are also discussed. Given that traditional climate and hydrological data observed in Africa are generally limited, satellite data should also be exploited to fill the data gap for Africa in the future.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor N. Ilich     

Climate change impact on water resources availability: case study of the Llobregat River basin (Spain)

ABSTRACT

Climate change may have significant consequences for water resources availability and management at the basin scale. This is particularly true for areas already suffering from water stress, such as the Mediterranean area. This work focused on studying these impacts in the Llobregat basin supplying the Barcelona region. Several climate projections, adapted to the spatiotemporal resolution of the study, were combined with a daily hydrological model to estimate future water availability. Depending on the scenario and the time period, different assessment indicators such as reliability and resilience showed a future decrease in water resources (up to 40%), with drought periods becoming more frequent. An additional uncertainty analysis showed the high variability of the results (annual water availability ranging from 147 hm³/year to 274 hm³/year), thus making accurate projections difficult. Finally, the study illustrates how climate change could be taken into account to provide adaptive measures for the future.

Editor M.C. Acreman; Associate editor J. Thompson     

Assessing the long-term impact of climatic variability and human activities on the water resources of a meso-scale Mediterranean catchment

Abstract

This article addresses the critical need for a better quantitative understanding of how water resources from the Hérault River catchment in France have been influenced by climate variability and the increasing pressure of human activity over the last 50 years. A method is proposed for assessing the relative impacts of climate and growing water demand on the decrease in discharge observed at various gauging stations in the periods 1961–1980 and 1981–2010. An annual water balance at the basin scale was calculated first, taking into account precipitation, actual evapotranspiration, water withdrawals and water discharge. Next, the evolution of the seasonal variability in hydroclimatic conditions and water withdrawals was studied. The catchment was then divided into zones according to the main geographical characteristics to investigate the heterogeneity of the climatic and human dynamics. This delimitation took into account the distribution of climate, topography, lithology, land cover and water uses, as well as the availability of discharge series. At the area scale, annual water balances were calculated to understand the internal changes that occurred in the catchment between both past periods. The decrease in runoff can be explained by the decrease in winter precipitation in the upstream areas and by the increase during summer in both water withdrawals and evapotranspiration in the downstream areas, mainly due to the increase in temperature. Thus, water stress increased in summer by 35%. This work is the first step of a larger research project to assess possible future changes in the capacity to satisfy water demand in the Hérault River catchment, using a model that combines hydrological processes and water demand.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz     

Study on projection of water resources of Dongting Lake catchment based on emission scenarios assumptions

ABSTRACT

With global climate change and impacts of human activity, the water cycle, which has a close relationship with local water resources, has changed rapidly. Based on different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, five relatively independent global climate models are selected from 47 CMIP5 models to simulate future climatic conditions. Data are downscaled to the local projection, with bias neutralized before applying them to the hydrological models, by which availability of future water resources are calculated for the Dongting Lake basin. The results show that the water resources of the Dongting Lake basin are likely to increase in the future, but be distributed more unevenly. All scenarios indicate that water availability will increase during the flood season and decrease during the dry season, with a prominent increase in annual discharge. The scenarios also predict that the greater the greenhouse gas emissions, the more uneven the water distribution becomes. Overall, the water resources of the Dongting Lake catchment show the same increasing and unevenly distributed trend in the future, which could be further accelerated by human activities.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor Q. Zhang     

Simulating the hydrologic impacts of land-cover and climate changes in a semi-arid watershed

Abstract

Changes in climate and land cover are among the principal variables affecting watershed hydrology. This paper uses a cell-based model to examine the hydrologic impacts of climate and land-cover changes in the semi-arid Lower Virgin River (LVR) watershed located upstream of Lake Mead, Nevada, USA. The cell-based model is developed by considering direct runoff based on the Soil Conservation Service - Curve Number (SCS-CN) method and surplus runoff based on the Thornthwaite water balance theory. After calibration and validation, the model is used to predict LVR discharge under future climate and land-cover changes. The hydrologic simulation results reveal climate change as the dominant factor and land-cover change as a secondary factor in regulating future river discharge. The combined effects of climate and land-cover changes will slightly increase river discharge in summer but substantially decrease discharge in winter. This impact on water resources deserves attention in climate change adaptation planning.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz     

Impacts of climate change on water resources in the Mediterranean Basin: a case study in Catalonia,Spain

Abstract

Most climate change projections show important decreases in water availability in the Mediterranean region by the end of this century. We assess those main climate change impacts on water resources in three medium-sized catchments with varying climatic conditions in northeastern Spain. A combination of hydrological modelling and climate projections with B1 and A2 IPCC emission scenarios is performed to infer future streamflows. The largest reduction (34%) in mean streamflows (for 2076–2100) is expected in the headwaters of the two wettest catchments, while lower decreases (25% of mean value for 2076–2100) are expected in the drier one. In all three catchments, autumn and summer are the seasons with the most notable projected decreases in streamflow, of 50% and 30%, respectively. Thus, ecological flows in the study area might be noticeably influenced by climate change, especially in the headwaters of the wet catchments.     

Diary of forthconing events

Abstract

New global models provide the opportunity to generate quantitative information about the world water situation. Here the WaterGAP 2 model is used to compute globally comprehensive estimates about water availability, water withdrawals, and other indicators on the river-basin scale. In applying the model to the current global water situation, it was found that about 24% of world river basin area has a withdrawal to availability ratio greater than 0.4, which some experts consider to be a rough indication of “severe water stress”; the impacts of this stress are expected to be stronger in developing countries than in industrialized ones. Under a “business-as-usual” scenario of continuing demographic, economic and technological trends up to 2025, water withdrawals are expected to stabilize or decrease in 41% of world river basin areas because of the saturation of water needs and improvement in water-use efficiency. Withdrawals grow elsewhere because population and economic growth will lead to rising demand for water, and this outweighs the assumed improvements in water-use efficiency. An uncertainty analysis showed that the uncertainty of these estimates is likely to have a strong geographic variability.     

Impact of warming climate on water management for the Ariège River basin (France)

Abstract

The French national project IMAGINE2030 aims to assess future water availability in the Garonne River basin (southwest France) by taking account of changes in both climate and water management in the 2030s. Within this project, two mountainous drainage basins located in the Pyrenees were examined to assess the specific impact of climate change on reservoir management. The Salat River basin at Roquefort, is considered as a proxy (representative of a natural basin), whereas the Ariège River at Foix is influenced by hydropower production in winter and by water releases to sustain low flows in summer. The Cequeau rainfall–runoff model, combined with a simplified model of reservoir management operations, was calibrated on present-day conditions and forced with climate projections derived from the IPCC AR4 report. The results show that a warming climate over the basins induces a decrease in mean annual runoff, a shift to earlier snow melting in mountainous areas and more severe low-flow conditions. The simulations show a decrease in electricity generation. Under two water management scenarios (one “business-as-usual” and the other incorporating an increased downstream water demand in compliance with requirements for increased minimum flow), simulations for the Ariège River basin suggest an earlier filling of the reservoir is necessary in winter to anticipate the increased release from reservoirs in summer to support minimum flow farther downstream.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor D. Hughes

Citation Hendrickx, F. and Sauquet, E., 2013. Impact of warming climate on water management for the Ariège River basin (France). Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (5), 976–993.     

Impact of climate change on diffuse pollutant fluxes at the watershed scale

This study aims to assess watershed‐scale impacts of changing climate on sediment, phosphorus, nitrogen and pesticide (atrazine) fluxes over the 21st century at the watershed scale. In particular, changes in dissolved and particulate forms of water quality constituents in response to climate change are investigated. The hydrologic model Soil and Water Assessment Tool was calibrated and evaluated in a primarily agricultural watershed in the Midwestern United States to simulate hydrologic and water quality processes on a daily basis over the 2015–2099 time horizon. The model was then driven with 112 distinct statistically downscaled climate projections representing Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES) low, moderate and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Projected hydrologic and water quality responses were categorized according to the three IPCC SRES emission scenarios for summarizing and synthesizing results over early‐century (2015–2034), mid‐century (2045–2064) and late‐century (2080–2099) assessment. Results revealed clear warming trends in the study area, whereas small increases in precipitation were predicted. Streamflow, sediment and total nutrient loads did not differ noticeably between assessment periods. However, the proportion of dissolved to total nutrients increased significantly from early‐century to late‐century periods. With the exception of total atrazine in the mid‐century period, predicted pollutant loads for a given assessment period did not differ between emission pathways for a given assessment period. Changes in pollutant fluxes showed pronounced monthly variability. The projected increase in readily available forms of nutrients has important implications for the ecological health of water systems and management of drinking water supplies. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Climate change,population trends and groundwater in Africa

Abstract

Global climate change is affecting Africa, as it is every other continent and region of the world. The absolute poverty of a large proportion of the continent's people renders them highly vulnerable to changes in climate. Mitigation of climate change is a global imperative. However, numerous other changes continue apace, notably population growth, natural resource degradation, and rural—urban migration. Probably 50% or more of the continent's population rely on groundwater. This paper explores the relative impacts of changes in climate, demography and land use/cover on groundwater resources and demands. It concludes that the climate change impacts are likely to be significant, though uncertain in direction and magnitude, while the direct and indirect impacts of demographic change on both water resources and water demand are not only known with far greater certainty, but are also likely to be much larger. The combined effects of urban population growth, rising food demands and energy costs, and consequent demand for fresh water represent real cause for alarm, and these dwarf the likely impacts of climate change on groundwater resources, at least over the first half of the 21st century.     

Projection of surface water resources in the context of climate change in typical regions of China

Climate change and its impact on hydrological processes are overarching issues that have brought challenges for sustainable water resources management. In this study, surface water resources in typical regions of China are projected in the context of climate change. A water balance model based on the Fu rational function equation is established to quantify future natural runoff. The model is calibrated using data from 13 hydrological stations in 10 first-class water resources zones of China. The future precipitation and temperature series come from the ISI-MIP (Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project) climate dataset. Taking natural runoff for 1961–1990 as a baseline, the impacts of climate change on natural runoff are studied under three emissions scenarios: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Simulated results indicate that the arid and semi-arid region in the northern part of China is more sensitive to climate change compared to the humid and semi-humid region in the south. In the near future (2011–2050), surface water resources will decrease in most parts of China (except for the Liaozhong and Daojieba catchments), especially in the Haihe River Basin and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River Basin. The decrement of surface water resources in the northern part of China is more than that in the southern part. For the periods 2011–2030 and 2031–2050, surface water resources are expected to decrease by 12–13% in the northern part of China, while those in the southern part will decrease by 7–10%.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis

ASSOCIATE EDITOR R. Hirsch     

Impact of climate change on runoff in the upper part of the Euphrates basin

Abstract

Among the processes most affected by global warming are the hydrological cycle and water resources. Regions where the majority of runoff consists of snowmelt are very sensitive to climate change. It is significant to express the relationship between climate change and snow hydrology and it is imperative to perform climate change impact studies on snow hydrology at global and regional scales. Climate change impacts on the mountainous Upper Euphrates Basin were investigated in this paper. First, historical data trend analysis of significant hydro-meteorological data is presented. Available future climate data are then explained, and, finally, future climate data are used in hydrological models, which are calibrated and validated using historical hydro-meteorological data, and future streamflow is projected for the period 2070–2100. The hydrological model outcomes indicate substantial runoff decreases in summer and spring season runoff, which will have significant consequences on water sectors in the Euphrates Basin.

Citation Yilmaz, A.G. & Imteaz, M.A. (2011) Impact of climate change on runoff in the upper part of the Euphrates basin. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(7), 1265–1279.     

Climate impacts on global irrigation requirements under 19 GCMs,simulated with a vegetation and hydrology model

Abstract

This study quantifies global changes in irrigation requirements for areas presently equipped for irrigation of major crop types, using climate projections from 19 GCMs up to the 2080s. Analysis is based on results from the global eco-hydrological model LPJmL that simulates the complex and dynamic interplay of direct and indirect climate change effects upon irrigation requirements. We find a decrease in global irrigation demand by ～17% in the ensemble median, due to a combination of beneficial CO₂ effects on plants, shorter growing periods and regional precipitation increases. In contrast, increases of >20% are projected with a high likelihood (i.e. in more than two thirds of the climate change scenarios) for some regions, including southern Europe, and, with a lower likelihood, for parts of Asia and North America as well. If CO₂ effects were not accounted for, however, global irrigation demand would hardly change, and increases would prevail in most regions except for southern Asia (where higher precipitation is projected). We stress that the CO₂ effects may not be realized everywhere, that irrigation requirements will probably increase further due to growing global food demand (not considered here), and that a significant amount of water to meet future irrigation requirements will have to be taken from fossil groundwater, environmental flow reserves or diverted rivers.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor A. Montanari

Citation Konzmann, M., Gerten, D., and Heinke, J., 2013. Climate impacts on global irrigation requirements under 19 GCMs, simulated with a vegetation and hydrology model. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (1), 1–18.     

Impacts of climate change on water resources in Spain

Abstract

Impacts on water resources produced by climate change can be exacerbated when occurring in regions already presenting low water resources levels and frequent droughts, and subject to imbalances between water demands and available resources. Within Europe, according to existing climate change scenarios, water resources will be severely affected in Spain. However, the detection of those effects is not simple, because the natural variability of the water cycle and the effects of water abstractions on flow discharges complicate the establishment of clear trends. Therefore, there is a need to improve the assessment of climate change impacts by using hydrological simulation models. This paper reviews water resources and their variability in Spain, the recent modelling studies on hydrological effects of climate change, expected impacts on water resources, the implications in river basins and the current policy actions.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Estrela, T., Pérez-Martin, M.A., and Vargas, E., 2012. Impacts of climate change on water resources in Spain. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (6), 1154–1167.     

Changes in water availability in the Upper Blue Nile basin under the representative concentration pathways scenario

Climatic and hydrological changes will likely be intensified in the Upper Blue Nile (UBN) basin by the effects of global warming. The extent of such effects for representative concentration pathways (RCP) climate scenarios is unknown. We evaluated projected changes in rainfall and evapotranspiration and related impacts on water availability in the UBN under the RCP4.5 scenario. We used dynamically downscaled outputs from six global circulation models (GCMs) with unprecedented spatial resolution for the UBN. Systematic errors of these outputs were corrected and followed by runoff modelling by the HBV (Hydrologiska ByrånsVattenbalansavdelning) model, which was successfully validated for 17 catchments. Results show that the UBN annual rainfall amount will change by ?2.8 to 2.7% with a likely increase in annual potential evapotranspiration (in 2041–2070) for the RCP4.5 scenario. These changes are season dependent and will result in a likely decline in streamflow and an increase in soil moisture deficit in the basin.     

Assessment of future Syrian water resources supply and demand by the WEAP model

Abstract

Water availability is one of the most important factors for economic development in the Middle East. The Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model was used to assess present and future water demand and supply in Syria till 2050. Nonconventional water resources, climate change, development, industrial growth, regional cooperation, and implementation of new water saving techniques/devices were considered important factors to include in the analysis using the WEAP model. Six scenarios were evaluated depending on the actual situation, climate change, best available technology, advanced technology, regional cooperation, and regional conflict. The results display a vital need for new water resources to balance the unmet water demands. Climate change will have a major effect on Syrian water resources; possible regional conflict will also to a major extent affect water balance. However, regional cooperation and using the best available technology can help in minimizing the gap between supply and demand.

EDITOR Z.W. Kundzewicz ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned     

全球变暖背景下东亚气候变化的最新情景预测

在最新的SRES A2和B2温室气体排放情景下,利用国际上7个气候模式针对未来全球变暖的数值模拟结果,本文着重分析了东亚区域气候21世纪的变化趋势. 研究揭示：中国大陆年均表面气温升高过程与全球同步,但增幅在东北、西部和华中地区较大,且表现出明显的年际变化;全球年均表面气温增幅纬向上大体呈带状分布,两极地区最为明显,并在北极地区达到最大;此外,21世纪后半段北半球高纬度地区的年平均强升温幅度主要来自于冬季增温. 在21世纪前50年,温室气体含量的增加除在一定程度上会增加青藏高原大部分夏季降水量外,不会对中国大陆其余地区的年、季节平均降水量产生较大影响;但持续的温室气体含量增加将最终导致大陆降水量几乎是全域性的增加.     

Announcements

ABSTRACT

Global climate variations are expected to cause serious challenges to water resources planning and management, including an increase in sea level, abrupt changes in rainfall patterns and changes in ecosystems. This study evaluates impacts of mid-century climate variability as projected by climate models in the Haw River watershed, which contributes significantly to Jordan Lake, a major source of drinking water supply in central North Carolina, USA. The watershed-based hydrological model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), was successfully calibrated with very good to excellent performance. Projected precipitation and temperature information for 2040–2069 from four dynamically downscaled regional climate models (RCMs) was used to force the SWAT modeling set-up of the watershed. On a long-term basis, a 38% decrease in the precipitation in early fall is expected while spring months are expected to receive 30% higher precipitation compared to the baseline condition (1980–2009). Water yield was found to increase in spring months, with a maximum of 74% increase on average. Summer months are expected to have on average 8% higher evapotranspiration (ET) than the baseline. Analysis of the change in average monthly streamflow at the watershed outlet (which leads to Lake Jordan) shows that there might be, on average, an 80% increase in streamflow in spring months (February, March, April and May), with the greatest increase (107%) in May. In general, simulation results indicated that the hydrological response of the watershed is very sensitive to the potential variation in climate (precipitation and temperature), with precipitation being one of the decisive factors in water yield increase.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz Associate editor N. Verhoest     

Demand modulation of water scarcity sensitivities to secular climatic variation: theoretical insights from a computational maquette

ABSTRACT

Increased demand associated with population or economic growth, and decreased supply under some climatic shifts, obviously contribute to water scarcity. As a fresh perspective, we offer a generic theoretical treatment using a computational “maquette”, employing parameterizations to avoid assumptions about the origin and scale of climate and demand changes. The results suggest a distinct (and more subtle) point: the sensitivities of water stress to changes in both the mean and the variance of hydroclimate are modulated by demand level. Theoretical behaviours generated by the reduced-complexity model are surprisingly intricate, including profound nonlinearities and bifurcations. These may form a lower bound on the dynamical complexity of the demand–supply–scarcity nexus. Overall, the outcomes suggest that demand growth substantially intensifies and nonlinearizes water stress sensitivities to secular climate variation, and, in particular, that the interactions between demand changes and second-order hydroclimatic non-stationarity may produce non-intuitive water scarcity impacts requiring much closer study.

EDITOR A. Castellarin; ASSOCIATE EDITOR N. Ilich     

Climate models and hydrological parameter uncertainties in climate change impacts on monthly runoff and daily flow duration curve of a Mediterranean catchment

ABSTRACT

Climate models and hydrological parameter uncertainties were quantified and compared while assessing climate change impacts on monthly runoff and daily flow duration curve (FDC) in a Mediterranean catchment. Simulations of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model using an ensemble of behavioural parameter sets derived from the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method were approximated by feed-forward artificial neural networks (FF-NN). Then, outputs of climate models were used as inputs to the FF-NN models. Subsequently, projected changes in runoff and FDC were calculated and their associated uncertainty was partitioned into climate model and hydrological parameter uncertainties. Runoff and daily discharge of the Chiba catchment were expected to decrease in response to drier and warmer climatic conditions in the 2050s. For both hydrological indicators, uncertainty magnitude increased when moving from dry to wet periods. The decomposition of uncertainty demonstrated that climate model uncertainty dominated hydrological parameter uncertainty in wet periods, whereas in dry periods hydrological parametric uncertainty became more important.

Editor M.C. Acreman; Associate editor S. Kanae