A distribution-free ordinal classification of floods based on moments

ABSTRACT

Classification of floods is often based on return periods of their peaks estimated from probability distributions and hence depends on assumptions. The choice of an appropriate distribution function and parameter estimation are often connected with high uncertainties. In addition, limited length of data series and the stochastic characteristic of the occurrence of extreme events add further uncertainty. Here, a distribution-free classification approach is proposed based on statistical moments. By using robust estimators the sampling effects are reduced and time series of different lengths can be analysed together. With a developed optimization procedure, locally and regionally consistent flood categories can be defined. In application, it is shown that the resulting flood categories can be used to assess the spatial extent of extreme floods and their coincidences. Moreover, groups of gauges, where simultaneous events belong to the same classes, are indicators for homogeneous groups of gauges in regionalization.     

Nonstationarity-based evaluation of flood risk in the Pearl River basin: changing patterns,causes and implications

Nonstationary GEV-CDN models considering time as a covariate are built for evaluating the flood risk and failure risk of the major flood-control infrastructure in the Pearl River basin, China. The results indicate: (1) increasing peak flood flow is observed in the mainstream of the West River and North River basins and decreasing peak flood flow is observed in the East River basin; in particular, increasing peak flood flow is detected in the mainstream of the lower Pearl River basin and also in the Pearl River Delta region, the most densely populated region of the Pearl River basin; (2) differences in return periods analysed under stationarity and nonstationarity assumptions are found mainly for floods with return periods longer than 50 years; and (3) the failure risks of flood-control infrastructure based on failure risk analysis are higher under the nonstationarity assumption than under the stationarity assumption. The flood-control infrastructure is at higher risk of flood and failure under the influence of climate change and human activities in the middle and lower parts of Pearl River basin.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis

ASSOCIATE EDITOR G. Thirel     

Direct relationships of discharges to the mean and standard deviation of the intervals between their exceedences

Abstract

This article paves a way for assessing flood risk by the use of two-parameter distributions, for the intervals between threshold exceedences rather than by the traditional exponential distribution. In a case study, the apparent properties of intervals between exceedences of runoff events differ from those anticipated for exponentially distributed series. A procedure is proposed to relate two statistical parameters of the intervals to threshold discharges. It considers partial duration series (PDS) with thresholds equal to all high enough observed discharges. To avoid unnecessary assumptions on the behaviour of those parameters and effects of dependence between parameters for different PDS, a non-parametric trend-free pre-whitened scheme is applied. It leads to power-law relationships between a discharge and the mean and standard deviation of the intervals between its exceedences. Predicted mean inter-exceedence intervals, for the highest observed discharges at the stations, are closer to the observational periods than those predicted by GEV distributions fitted to AMS, and by GP distributions to fitted PDS. In the present case, the latter predictions are longer than the observational periods whereas some of the predicted mean inter-exceedences are shorter than the corresponding observational periods and some others are longer.

Citation Ben-Zvi, A. & Azmon, B. (2010) Direct relationships of discharges to the mean and standard deviation of the intervals between their exceedences. Hydrol. Sci J. 55(4), 565–577.     

Flood-hazard assessment and risk-based zoning of a tropical flood plain: case study of the Yom River,Thailand

Abstract

This study contributes to the comprehensive assessment of flood hazard and risk for the Phrae flood plain of the Yom River basin in northern Thailand. The study was carried out using a hydrologic–hydrodynamic model in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS). The model was calibrated and verified using the observed rainfall and river flood data during flood seasons in 1994 and 2001, respectively. Flooding scenarios were evaluated in terms of flooding depth for events of 25-, 50-, 100- and 200-year return periods. An impact-based hazard estimation technique was applied to assess the degree of hazard across the flood plain. The results showed that 78% of the Phrae flood-plain area of 476 km² in the upper Yom River basin lies in the hazard zone of the 100-year return-period flood. Risk analyses were performed by incorporating flood hazard and the vulnerability of elements at risk. Based on relative magnitude of risk, flood-prone areas were divided into low-, moderate-, high- and severe-risk zones. For the 100-year return-period flood, the risk-free area was found to be 22% of the total flood plain, while areas under low, medium, high and severe risk were 33, 11, 28 and 6%, respectively. The outcomes are consistent with overall property damage recorded in the past. The study identifies risk areas for priority-based flood management, which is crucial when there is a limited budget to protect the entire risk zone simultaneously.

Citation Tingsanchali, T. & Karim, F. (2010) Flood-hazard assessment and risk-based zoning of a tropical flood plain: case study of the Yom River, Thailand. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(2), 145–161.     

Development of design flood hydrographs using probability density functions

Probability density functions (PDFs) are used to fit the shape of hydrographs and have been popularly used for the development of synthetic unit hydrographs by many hydrologists. Nevertheless, modelling the shapes of continuous stream flow hydrographs, which are probabilistic in nature, is rare. In the present study, a novel approach was followed to model the shape of stream flow hydrographs using PDF and subsequently to develop design flood hydrographs for various return periods. Four continuous PDFs, namely, two parameter Beta, Weibull, Gamma and Lognormal, were employed to fit the shape of the hydrographs of 22 years at a site of Brahmani River in eastern India. The shapes of the observed and PDF fitted hydrographs were compared and root mean square errors, error of peak discharge (EQ_P) and error of time to peak (ET_P) were computed. The best‐fitted shape and scale parameters of all PDFs were subjected to frequency analysis and the quartiles corresponding to 20‐, 50‐, 100‐ and 200‐year were estimated. The estimated parameters of each return period were used to develop the flood hydrographs for 20‐, 50‐, 100‐ and 200‐year return periods. The peak discharges of the developed design flood hydrographs were compared with the design discharges estimated from the frequency analysis of 22 years of annual peak discharges at that site. Lognormal‐produced peak discharge was very close to the estimated design discharge in case of 20‐year flood hydrograph. On the other hand, peak discharge obtained using the Weibull PDF had close agreement with the estimated design discharge obtained from frequency analysis in case of 50‐, 100‐ and 200‐year return periods. The ranking of the PDFs based on estimation of peak of design flood hydrograph for 50‐, 100‐ and 200‐year return periods was found to have the following order: Weibull > Beta > Lognormal > Gamma. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact assessment of climatic and land-use changes on flood runoff in southeast Queensland

Abstract

Over the past century, land-use has changed in southeast Queensland, and when coupled with climatic change, the risk of flooding has increased. This research aims to examine impacts of climate and land-use changes on flood runoff in southeast Queensland, Australia. A rainfall–runoff model, RORB, was calibrated and validated using observed flood hydrographs for one rural and one urbanized catchment, for 1961–1990. The validated model was then used to generate flood hydrographs using projected rainfall based on two climate models: the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model 2.1 (GFDL CM2.1) and the Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM), for 2016–2045. Projected daily rainfall for the two contrasting periods was used to derive adjustment factors for a given frequency of occurrence. Two land-use change scenarios were used to evaluate likely impacts. Based on the projected rainfall, the results showed that, in both catchments, future flood magnitudes are unlikely to increase for large flood events. Extreme land-use change would significantly impact flooding in the rural catchment, but not the urbanized catchment.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor Y. Gyasi-Agyei     

Performance of flood frequency pooling analysis in a low CV context

Abstract

Pooling of flood data is widely used to provide a framework to estimate design floods by the Index Flood method. Design flood estimation with this approach involves derivation of a growth curve which shows the relationship between X_T and the return period T, where X_T ?=?Q_T /Q_I and Q_I is the index flood at the site of interest. An implicit assumption with the Index Flood procedure of pooling analysis is that the X_T –T relationship is the same at all sites in a homogeneous pooling group, although this assumption would generally be violated to some extent in practical cases, i.e. some degree of heterogeneity exists. In fact, in only some cases is the homogeneity criterion effectively satisfied for Irish conditions. In this paper, the performance of the index-flood pooling analysis is assessed in the Irish low CV (coefficient of variation) hydrology context considering that heterogeneity is taken into account. It is found that the performance of the pooling method is satisfactory provided there are at least 350 station years of data included. Also it is found that, in a highly heterogeneous group, it is more desirable to have many sites with short record lengths than a smaller number of sites with long record lengths. Increased heterogeneity decreases the advantage of pooling group-based estimation over at-site estimation. Only a heterogeneity measure (H1) less than 4.0 can render the pooled estimation preferable to that obtained for at-site estimation for the estimation of 100-year flood. In moderately to highly heterogeneous regions it is preferable to conduct at-site analysis for the estimation of 100-year flood if the record length at the site concerned exceeds 50.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor A. Carsteanu

Citation Das, S. and Cunnane, C., 2012. Performance of flood frequency pooling analysis in a low CV context. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (3), 433–444.     

A new seasonal design flood method based on bivariate joint distribution of flood magnitude and date of occurrence

Abstract

Seasonal design floods which consider information on seasonal variation are very important for reservoir operation and management. The seasonal design flood method currently used in China is based on seasonal maximum (SM) samples and assumes that the seasonal design frequency is equal to the annual design frequency. Since the return period associated with annual maximum floods is taken as the standard in China, the current seasonal design flood cannot satisfy flood prevention standards. A new seasonal design flood method, which considers dates of flood occurrence and magnitudes of the peaks (runoff), was proposed and established based on copula function. The mixed von Mises distribution was selected as marginal distribution of flood occurrence dates. The Pearson Type III and exponential distributions were selected as the marginal distribution of flood magnitude for annual maximum flood series and peak-over-threshold samples, respectively. The proposed method was applied at the Geheyan Reservoir, China, and then compared with the currently used seasonal design flood methods. The case study results show that the proposed method can satisfy the flood prevention standard, and provide more information about the flood occurrence probabilities in each sub-season. The results of economic analysis show that the proposed design flood method can enhance the floodwater utilization rate and give economic benefits without lowering the annual flood protection standard.

Citation Chen, L., Guo, S. L., Yan, B. W., Liu, P. & Fang, B. (2010) A new seasonal design flood method based on bivariate joint distribution of flood magnitude and date of occurrence. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(8), 1264–1280.     

Theoretical link between rainfall and flood magnitude

The rainfall–run‐off convolution integral is analytically solved for several models for the elementary hydrograph. These solutions can be combined with available rainfall frequency analyses to predict flood flows along streams for different recurrence intervals, using no free parameters for gauged streams and one estimable parameter for ungauged streams. Extreme discharge magnitudes at gauged sites can be typically estimated within a factor of two of actual records, using no historical data on extreme flows. The flow predictions reproduce several important characteristics of the flood phenomenon, such as the slope of the regression line between observed extreme flows and basin area on the conventional logQ versus logA plot. Importantly, for the models and data sets investigated, the storm duration of greatest significance to flooding was found to approximate the intrinsic transport timescale of the particular watershed, which increases with basin size. Thus, storms that deliver extraordinary amounts of rainfall over a particular time interval will most greatly activate basins whose time constants approximately equal that interval. This theoretical finding is supported by examination of the regional hydrological response to the massive storms of September 14, 2008, and April 28–30, 2017, which caused extraordinary record flooding of basins of about 5–100 km² and 500–4,000 km², respectively, but produced few records in basins that were larger or smaller than those ranges.     

Urban flood hazard mapping using change detection on wetness transformed images

ABSTRACT

The present study demonstrates the use of a new approach for delineating the accurate flood hazard footprint in the urban regions. The methodology involves transformation of Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery to a three-dimensional feature space, i.e. brightness, wetness and greenness, then a change detection technique is used to identify the areas affected by the flood. Efficient thresholding of the normalized difference image generated during change detection has shown promising results in identifying the flood extents which include standing water due to flood, sediment-laden water and wetness caused by the flood. Prior to wetness transformations, dark object subtraction has been used in lower wavelengths to avoid errors due to scattering in urban areas. The study shows promising results in eliminating most of the problems associated with urban flooding, such as misclassification due to presence of asphalt, scattering in lower wavelengths and delineating mud surges. The present methodology was tested on the 2010 Memphis flood event and validated on Queensland floods in 2011. The comparative analysis was carried out with the widely-used technique of delineating flood extents using thresholding of near infrared imagery. The comparison demonstrated that the present approach is more robust towards the error of omission in flood mapping. Moreover, the present approach involves less manual effort and is simpler to use.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor A. Viglione     

Simulating streamflow on regulated rivers using characteristic reservoir storage patterns derived from synthetic remote sensing data

This study presents a method to estimate streamflow in rivers regulated by lakes or reservoirs using synthetic satellite remote sensing data. To illustrate the approach, the new reservoir routing method is integrated into the Hillslope River Routing model, and a case study is presented for the highly regulated river in the Cumberland River basin (46,400 km²). The study period is April–May 2000, which contains a significant flood event that occurred in 1–2 May 2000. The model is shown to capture storage/release characterises in eight reservoirs with a mean normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of 20% for entire simulation period and 27% for the May flood event. These errors are 69 and 75%, respectively, less than the NRMSE if reservoirs are not included in the model. Given the limitations of satellite missions, the impacts of the revisit cycles and operational periods are quantified. We used 26 observation sets of satellite altimetry over Cumberland River basin that are generated by considering both repeat cycles and satellite operation periods. For the revisit cycles, increasing the interval of repeat cycle leads to a corresponding increase of mean NRMSE from 27 to 59% as a result of sampling fewer flood events and smoothing of the change in storage signal as a result of longer intervals between visits. For the operation periods, the impact of data periods is limited because of the strong seasonal pattern of reservoir operations. Overall, the results suggest that the generalized routing model derived from reservoir stage observations can be used to simulate reservoir operating conditions, which can be used in forecasting hydrologic impacts of land cover or climate change. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparison between the peaks-over-threshold method and the annual maximum method for flood frequency analysis

Abstract

Flood frequency analysis can be made by using two types of flood peak series, i.e. the annual maximum (AM) and peaks-over-threshold (POT) series. This study presents a comparison of the results of both methods for data from the Litija 1 gauging station on the Sava River in Slovenia. Six commonly used distribution functions and three different parameter estimation techniques were considered in the AM analyses. The results showed a better performance for the method of L-moments (ML) when compared with the conventional moments and maximum likelihood estimation. The combination of the ML and the log-Pearson type 3 distribution gave the best results of all the considered AM cases. The POT method gave better results than the AM method. The binomial distribution did not offer any noticeable improvement over the Poisson distribution for modelling the annual number of exceedences above the threshold.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Bezak, N., Brilly, M., and ?raj, M., 2014. Comparison between the peaks-over-threshold method and the annual maximum method for flood frequency analysis. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (5), 959–977.     

Assessment of severity of the extreme River Tyne flood in January 2005 using gauged and historical information

Abstract

The extreme Tyne (Northumbria, UK) flood in January 2005 provided the opportunity to reassess flood risk and to link peak discharge and flooded area to probability of occurrence. However, in spite of the UK guidance on flood risk assessment given in the Flood Estimation Handbook (FEH), there is still considerable subjectivity in deriving risk estimates. A particular problem for the Tyne arises from the effects of river bed gravel extraction both on the reliability of gauged discharges and in the interpretation of historical level data. In addition, attenuation and drawdown of Kielder Water has reduced downstream flood risk since 1982. Estimates from single-site, pooled estimates and historical information are compared. It is concluded that the return period of the observed flood was around 71 years on the lower Tyne and was probably the largest flood since 1815.     

The use of historical flood information in the English Midlands to improve risk assessment

Abstract

The Easter 1998 flood was the largest flood event in the gauged record of many basins of the English Midlands. Flood frequency analysis, using such gauged records only, placed the 1998 event at a return period of over 100 years on several basins. However a review of historical (pre-gauged) flooding on some rivers gives a different perspective. Examples are given of the use of historical flood information on the River Leam, the River Wreake at Melton Mowbray, the River Sence (tributary to the River Soar) and the River Frome at Stroud. The cost of acquiring such historical flood data is trivial in comparison to gauged data, but the benefits are demonstrated as significant. In particular, historical flood data provide a better basis for risk assessment and planning on flood plains through revised estimates of flood discharge and depth.     

Forests and floods: Using field evidence to reconcile analysis methods

The extent to which forests, relative to shorter vegetation, mitigate flood peak discharges remains controversial and relatively poorly researched, with only a few significant field studies. Considering the effect purely of change of vegetation cover, peak flow magnitude comparisons for paired catchments have suggested that forests do not mitigate large floods, whereas flood frequency comparisons have shown that forests mitigate frequencies over all magnitudes of flood. This study investigates the apparent inconsistency using field-based evidence from four contrasting field programmes at scales of 0.34–3.1 km². Repeated patterns are identified that provide strong evidence of real effects with physical explanations. Magnitude and frequency comparisons are both relevant to the impact of forests on peak discharges but address different questions. Both can show a convergence of response between forested and grassland/logged states at the highest recorded flows but the associated return periods may be quite variable and are subject to estimation uncertainty. For low to moderate events, the forested catchments have a lower peak magnitude for a given frequency than the grassland/logged catchments. Depending on antecedent soil saturation, a given storm may nevertheless generate peak discharges of the same magnitude for both catchment states but these peaks will have different return periods. The effect purely of change in vegetation cover may be modified by additional forestry interventions, such as road networks and drainage ditches which, by effectively increasing the drainage density, may increase peak flows for all event magnitudes. For all the sites, forest cover substantially reduces annual runoff.     

Book reviews

Abstract

Statistical and deterministic modelling estimates of flood magnitudes and frequencies that can affect flood-plain ecology in the upper Ahuriri River catchment, a mountainous high country catchment in the New Zealand Southern Alps, were evaluated. Statistical analysis of 46 years of historical data showed that floods are best modelled by the generalized extreme value and lognormal distributions. We evaluated application of the HEC-HMS model to this environment by modelling flood events of various frequencies. Model results were validated and compared with the statistical estimates. The SCS curve number method was used for losses and runoff generation, and the model was very sensitive to curve number. The HEC-HMS flood estimates matched the statistical estimates reasonably well, and, over all return periods, were on average approximately 1% greater. However, the model generally underestimated flood peaks up to the 25-year event and overestimated magnitudes above this. The results compared well with other regional estimates, including studies based on L-moments, and showed that this catchment has smaller floods than other similarly-sized catchments in the Southern Alps.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor H. Aksoy

Citation Caruso, B.S., Rademaker, M., Balme, A., and Cochrane, T.A., 2013. Flood modelling in a high country mountain catchment, New Zealand: comparing statistical and deterministic model estimates for ecological flows. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (2), 328–341.     

Scaling and regionalization of flood flows in British Columbia,Canada

A regionalization of flood data in British Columbia reveals a common scaling with drainage area over the range 0·5×10²<A_d<10⁴ km². This scaling is not a function of flood return period, which implies that simple scaling—consistent with a snowmelt‐dominated flow regime—applies to the province. The observed scale relation takes the form , similar to values reported in previous studies. The scaling relation identified was used to define the regional pattern of hydroclimatic variability for flood flows in British Columbia after discounting the effect of drainage area. The pattern was determined by kriging a scale‐independent runoff factor k for the mean annual flood, 5 year flood and 20 year flood. The analysis permits quantification of uncertainty of the estimates, which can be used in conjunction with the mapped k‐fields to calculate a mean and range for floods with the identified return period for ungauged basins. Owing to the sparsity of data, the precision is relatively poor. The standard error is generally less than 75% of the estimate in the southern half of the province, whereas in the northern half it is often between 75 and 100%. Examination of the relative increase in flood magnitude with increasing return period reveals spatially consistent but statistically insignificant differences. Flood magnitude tends to increase more rapidly in the western regions, where rain events may contribute to flood generation. The relative increase in flood magnitude with return period is consistently lower in the eastern mountain ranges, where snowmelt dominates the flood flow regime. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrometeorological analysis of the December 2008 flood in Rome

Abstract

Rome has been plagued by flooding since its foundation, and, in December 2008, the largest flood event over the past 20 years caused a fatality and more than €150 million in economic damage. Meteorological conditions associated with the December 2008 flooding are shown to be typical of flooding in the Tiber. The long record of discharge measurements of the Tiber River at the Ripetta station in downtown Rome was used to examine flood frequency for the Tiber, including assessment of the return interval of the December 2008 flood. Particular attention is given to examination of the stationarity assumption for flood peaks through change-point and trend analyses, quantile regression, and statistical modelling of the flood-peak distribution. Once anthropogenic changes linked to reservoir regulation of the Tiber River have been accounted for, the stationarity assumption holds and can be used for flood frequency analysis. We highlight the difficulties in detecting departures from the stationarity assumption due to climate change. In the current regime, the December 2008 flood event has a return period of the order of 10–20 years.

Citation Villarini, G., Smith, J.A., Napolitano, F. & Baeck, M.L. (2011) Hydrometeorological analyses of the December 2008 flood in Rome. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(7), 1150–1165.     

Effect of growing watershed imperviousness on hydrograph parameters and peak discharge

An increasing impervious area is quickly extending over the Wu‐Tu watershed due to the endless demands of the people. Generally, impervious paving is a major result of urbanization and more recently has had the potential to produce more enormous flood disasters than those of the past. In this study, 40 available rainfall–runoff events were chosen to calibrate the applicable parameters of the models and to determine the relationships between the impervious surfaces and the calibrated parameters. Model inputs came from the outcomes of the block kriging method and the non‐linear programming method. In the optimal process, the shuffled complex evolution method and three criteria were applied to compare the observed and simulated hydrographs. The tendencies of the variations of the parameters with their corresponding imperviousness were established through regression analysis. Ten cases were used to examine the established equations of the parameters and impervious covers. Finally, the design flood routines of various return periods were furnished through use of approaches containing a design storm, block kriging, the SCS model, and a rainfall‐runoff model with established functional relationships. These simulated flood hydrographs were used to compare and understand the past, present, and future hydrological conditions of the watershed studied. In the research results, the time to peak of flood hydrographs for various storms was diminished approximately from 11 h to 6 h in different decrements, whereas peak flow increased respectively from 127 m³ s^?1 to 629 m³ s^?1 for different storm intensities. In addition, this study provides a design diagram for the peak flow ratio to help engineers and designers to construct hydraulic structures efficiently and prevent possible damage to human life and property. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.