Practical aspects of calibrating and selecting unit hydrograph-based models for continuous river flow simulation

Abstract

A continuous simulation rainfall-streamflow modelling approach that identifies unit hydrographs for total streamflow has been applied to an 11-year record from a national hydrometric monitoring network catchment in the UK. The model is of the parametrically parsimonious conceptual model (PPCM) type that can make efficient use of rainfall, streamflow and air temperature data readily available from established national and regional monitoring networks. A multiple split-sample model calibration and simulation analysis is presented that reveals some guiding principles for calibrating and applying PPCMs generally. The inadequacy of a one-dimensional objective function for calibrating best PPCMs is demonstrated. A two-dimensional objective function approach is superior but is shown to be unreliable in some cases, confirming the need for additional critical inspection of other model performance statistics, model parameters and time series plots as an integral part of the model calibration process. A strong tendency evident from the multiple split-sample analysis is that, for the catchment studied, models that fit relatively well in calibration mode perform relatively poorly in simulation mode.     

Performance of the White method for estimating groundwater evapotranspiration under conditions of deep and fluctuating groundwater

The White method is a simple but the most frequently applied approach to estimate groundwater evapotranspiration (ET_g) from groundwater level diurnal signals. Because of a lack of direct measurements of ET_g, it is difficult to evaluate the performance of the White method, particularly in field environments with variable groundwater fluctuations. A 2‐year field observation in a hyper‐arid riparian tamarisk (Tamarix spp.) stand with deep groundwater depth in the lower Tarim River basin of China was conducted to measure the surface evapotranspiration (ET_s) and groundwater table. The performance of the White method and the influences of the variable groundwater fluctuations on the determinations of the specific yield (S_y) and recharge rate of groundwater (r) in the White method were investigated. The results showed that the readily available S_y determined by Loheide's method was feasible but must be finely determined based on the soil textures in the layers in which the groundwater level fluctuated. A constant S_y value for a defined porous medium could be assumed regardless of the discharge or recharge processes of groundwater. The time span of 0000 h to 0600 h for r estimation for the White method worked best than other time spans. A 2‐day moving average of r values further enhance ET_g estimation. Slight effects of environmental or anthropogenic disturbances on the diurnal fluctuations of groundwater level did not influence the ET_g estimations by the White method. Our results provide valuable references to the application of the White method for estimating daily ET_g in desert riparian forests with deep groundwater depth. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysis of recharge conceptualization in inverse groundwater modelling

ABSTRACT

This study presents a systematic illustration quantifying how misleading the calibration results of a groundwater simulation model can be when recharge rates are considered as the model parameters to be estimated by inverse modelling. Three approaches to recharge estimation are compared: autocalibration (Model 1), the empirical return coefficient method (Model 2), and distributed hydrological modelling using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT (Model 3). The methodology was applied in the Dehloran Plain, western Iran, using the MODFLOW modular flow simulator and the PEST method for autocalibration. The results indicate that, although Model 1 performed the best in simulating water levels at observation wells in the calibration stage, it did not perform satisfactorily in real future scenarios. Model 3, with SWAT-based recharge rates, performed better than the other models in the validation stage. By not evaluating the model performance solely on calibration results, we demonstrate the relative significance of using more accurate recharge estimates when calibrating groundwater simulation models.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis; ASSOCIATE EDITOR M. Besbes     

A numerical investigation of bedrock groundwater recharge and exfiltration on soil mantled hillslopes

Here we use Richards Equation models of variably saturated soil and bedrock groundwater flow to investigate first-order patterns of the coupling between soil and bedrock flow systems. We utilize a Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis to identify important hillslope parameters controlling bedrock recharge and then model the transient response of bedrock and soil flow to seasonal precipitation. Our results suggest that hillslopes can be divided into three conceptual zones of groundwater interaction, (a) the zone of lateral unsaturated soil moisture accumulation (upper portion of hillslope), (b) the zone of soil saturation and bedrock recharge (middle of hillslope) and (c) the zone of saturated-soil lateral flow and bedrock groundwater exfiltration (bottom of hillslope). Zones of groundwater interaction expand upslope during periods of precipitation and drain downslope during dry periods. The amount of water partitioned to the bedrock groundwater system a can be predicted by the ratio of bedrock to soil saturated hydraulic conductivity across a variety of hillslope configurations. Our modelled processes are qualitatively consistent with observations of shallow subsurface saturation and groundwater fluctuation on hillslopes studied in our two experimental watersheds and support a conceptual model of tightly coupled shallow and deep subsurface circulation where groundwater recharge and discharge continuously stores and releases water from longer residence time storage.     

Method for estimating available groundwater volume of small coral islands

We present a simple modelling method to estimate the volume of available groundwater in the freshwater lens of atoll islands under steady-state conditions. Model inputs include annual rainfall depth, island width for cross-sections along the length of the island, aquifer hydraulic conductivity, and depth to the contact between the upper sand aquifer and the lower limestone aquifer. The methodology is tested for nine islands of varying size in the Maldives and Micronesia. Sensitivity analysis indicates that lens volume on large islands typically is governed by the depth to the discontinuity, whereas lens volume for smaller islands is governed by rainfall rate and hydraulic conductivity. Volume curves, which relate lens volume to lens thickness, are developed for each of the nine islands and for three generic island shapes to allow rapid estimation of lens volume given field-estimated lens thickness. The methods presented in this study can be used for any small atoll island.     

Long‐term trend of precipitation and runoff in Korean river basins

The spatial and temporal variations of precipitation and runoff for 139 basins in South Korea were investigated for 34 years (1968–2001). The Precipitation‐Runoff Modelling System (PRMS) was selected for the assessment of basin hydrologic response to varying climates and physiology. A non‐parametric Mann–Kendall's test and regression analysis are used to detect trends in annual, seasonal, and monthly precipitation and runoff, while Moran's I is adapted to determine the degree of spatial dependence in runoff trend among the basins. The results indicated that the long‐term trends in annual precipitation and runoff were increased in northern regions and decreased in south‐western regions of the study area during the study period. The non‐parametric Mann–Kendall test showed that spring streamflow was decreasing, while summer streamflow was increasing. April precipitation decreased between 15% and 74% for basins located in south‐western part of the Korean peninsula. June precipitation increased between 18% and 180% for the majority of the basins. Trends in seasonal and monthly streamflow show similar patterns compared to trends in precipitation. Decreases in spring runoff are associated with decreases in spring precipitation which, accompanied by rising temperatures, are responsible for reducing soil moisture. The regional patterns of precipitation and runoff changes show a strong to moderate positive spatial autocorrelation, suggesting that there is a high potential for severe spring drought and summer flooding in some parts of Korea if these trends continue in the future. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling of groundwater mound formation resulting from transient recharge

An analytical solution of a linearized Boussinesq equation is obtained to predict water table fluctuations as a result of time varying recharge from a strip basin for any number of recharge cycles. The analytical solution is obtained by using finite Fourier sine transform. Applications of the solution for the prediction of water table fluctuations and sensitivity analysis are demonstrated with the help of example problems. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ecosystem specific yield for estimating evapotranspiration and groundwater exchange from diel surface water variation

The White method, routinely used to estimate phreatophyte transpiration from diel groundwater variation, also provides measures of total evapotranspiration (ET) and groundwater fluxes in surface waters. Such applications remain rare, however, and critically require accurate representation of stage‐dependent variation in specific yield (S_y). High‐resolution stage data from three Florida swamps were used to evaluate different relationships between S_y and stage (ecosystem specific yield, ESY). A discretized form, ESY_D, assumes constant S_y near unity for inundated conditions, applying soil S_y for belowground stage and open water S_y (S_y,OW ≈ 1.0) for aboveground stage. A mixture approach, ESY_M, applies a stage‐dependent interpolation between S_y,Soil and S_y,OW using stage‐area relationships and assumes rapid lateral equilibration between inundated and non‐inundated wetland areas. Finally, an empirical formulation, ESY_RR, uses measured ratios of rain to rise to estimate stage‐specific S_y. All formulations yielded reasonable ET rates (ET ≈ PET) at high stage; ESY_D markedly overestimated ET (ET/PET > 3) at intermediate stage, whereas ESY_M and ESY_RR maintained ET/PET near 1.0. Estimated groundwater fluxes using ESY_M and ESY_RR correlated well with Darcy‐estimated flows, but were larger, likely due to uncertainties in Darcy parameters. Well transects across wetlands documented equal water elevation and diel variation across inundated and non‐inundated areas, verifying rapid equilibration that reduces S_y and explaining overestimation by ESY_D. However, equilibration area varied within and among wetlands, explaining observed differences between ESY_M and ESY_RR, and suggesting ESY_RR may be preferred. Stage histograms followed the shape of ESY_RR, highlighting reciprocal influences of ESY on stage stability. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A hydrographic method to identify the groundwater net recharge,barometric effect and evapotranspiration from a complicated semidiurnal water table fluctuation

A hydrographic method was proposed to separate out the hourly scaled groundwater level changes caused by net recharge, barometric effects and evapotranspiration from a semidiurnal water table fluctuation. A characteristic midnight time, with a turning point of the barometric pressure change and high relative air humidity, which meant that neither the barometric effect nor groundwater evapotranspiration occurred, was proposed for determining the net recharge rate r_net. Then, the barometric efficiency f_bar was estimated using the other time period without evapotranspiration, and the evapotranspiration rate r_ETG was finally obtained using the remainder of the water level changes. A case example illustrated that estimation of f_bar using the proposed method was more accurate than that using the traditional error analysis method, which may result in a significant underestimation under the condition of the present water level changes. Additionally, the abnormal semidiurnal fluctuations, more specifically, two step-down fluctuations, which may be a common pattern when the groundwater level is controlled by net recharge, barometric effects and evapotranspiration, can be well understood using the three components separated out. The results also showed that nighttime groundwater evapotranspiration, accounting for an average of 23% of that during the daytime, cannot be ignored.     

Checks on the measurement of potential evapotranspiration using water balance data and independent measures of groundwater recharge

A twelve-year record of daily evaporation and evapotranspiration measurements at the Coleraine campus of the University of Ulster in Northern Ireland is analysed. Potential evapotranspiration (PE) is independently derived from: (i) Penman PT estimates; (ii) irrigated grass lysimeters PE(L); (iii) measurements of tank evaporation, PE(T). Both PE(T) and PE(L) are higher in winter than PT and have more prolonged summer peaks. Examination of soil moisture deficits during the period shows that actual evapotranspiration (AE) rarely falls below the potential rate and that PE and AE are therefore equal for most of the year. The availability of rainfall, stream discharge and groundwater data from an instrumented river catchment on the University campus enables water balances to be constructed for the period of study. Separate water balances using each of the PE estimates show that Penman PT most satisfactorily reflects catchment storage changes monitored independently. Penman PT is therefore confirmed as the most appropriate estimate of PE for the climatic, soil and vegetation conditions of the region. The use of Penman PT in water balance determinations, however, does not secure perfect agreement between estimated recharge and depletion of catchment storage on the one hand, and observed changes in water-table level on the other. The combined effects of error in surface water balance determinations are estimated at about 13%.     

Assessment of CHADFDM satellite-based input dataset for the groundwater recharge estimation in arid and data scarce regions

Aquifer natural recharge estimations are a prerequisite for understanding hydrologic systems and sustainable water resources management. As meteorological data series collection is difficult in arid and semiarid areas, satellite products have recently become an alternative for water resources studies. A daily groundwater recharge estimation in the NW part of the Lake Chad Basin, using a soil–plant-atmosphere model (VisualBALAN), from ground- and satellite-based meteorological input dataset for non-irrigated and irrigated land and for the 2005–2014 period is presented. Average annual values were 284 mm and 30°C for precipitation and temperature in ground-based gauge stations. For the satellite-model-based Lake Chad Basin Flood and Drought Monitor System platform (CHADFDM), average annual precipitation and temperature were 417 mm and 29°C, respectively. Uncertainties derived from satellite data measurement could account for the rainfall difference. The estimated mean annual aquifer recharge was always higher from satellite- than ground-based data, with differences up to 46% for dryland and 23% in irrigated areas. Recharge response to rainfall events was very variable and results were very sensitive to: wilting point, field capacity and curve number for runoff estimation. Obtained results provide plausible recharge values beyond the uncertainty related to data input and modelling approach. This work prevents on the important deviations in recharge estimation from weighted-ensemble satellite-based data, informing in decision making to both stakeholders and policy makers.     

A novel approach for estimating karst groundwater recharge in mountainous regions and its application in Switzerland

A pragmatic and simple approach for estimating the groundwater recharge of karst aquifers in mountainous regions by extrapolation of the hydrological regimes of gauged and well‐documented systems is presented. Specific discharge rates are derived using annual precipitation and spring measurements by taking into account catchment size and elevation, which are assumed to be the dominant factors. Reference sites with high data reliability are used for calibration and regional extrapolation. This is performed with normalized values employing spatial precipitation deviations and correlation with the elevation of the catchment areas. A tiered step procedure provides minimum and maximum normalized gradients for the relationship between recharge quantity and elevation for karst regions. The normalized recharge can therefore be obtained and extrapolated for any location using the spatial precipitation variability to provide an estimate of annual groundwater recharge. The approach was applied to Switzerland (approximately 7500 km² of karst terrain situated between 200 and over 4000 m a.s.l.) using annual precipitation data from meteorological stations for the years 2000 to 2011. Results show that the average recharge rates of different Swiss karst domains range from 20 to 46 L/km²s, which corresponds to an infiltration ratio between 0.6 and 0.9 of total precipitation. Despite uncertainties inherent in the approach, these results provide a benchmark for renewable karst groundwater resources in Switzerland of about 8.4 km³/year. The approach can be applied to any other mountainous karst region, that is, where a clear relationship between elevation, precipitation and recharge can be assumed. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Variably saturated groundwater modelling for optimizing managed aquifer recharge using trench infiltration

Spreading‐basin methods have resulted in more than 130 million cubic metres of recharge to the unconfined Navajo Sandstone of southern Utah in the past decade, but infiltration rates have slowed in recent years because of reduced hydraulic gradients and (or) clogging. Trench infiltration is a promising alternative technique for increasing recharge and minimizing evaporation. This paper uses a variably saturated flow model to further investigate the relative importance of the following variables on rates of trench infiltration to unconfined aquifers: saturated hydraulic conductivity, trench spacing and dimensions, initial water‐table depth, alternate wet/dry periods, and number of parallel trenches. Modelling results showed (1) increased infiltration with higher hydraulic conductivity, deeper initial water tables, and larger spacing between parallel trenches, (2) deeper or wider trenches do not substantially increase infiltration, (3) alternating wet/dry periods result in less overall infiltration than keeping the trenches continuously full, and (4) larger numbers of parallel trenches within a fixed area increases infiltration but with a diminishing effect as trench spacing becomes tighter. An empirical equation for estimating expected trench infiltration rates as a function of hydraulic conductivity and initial water‐table depth was derived and can be used for evaluating feasibility of trench infiltration in other hydrogeologic settings. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimating groundwater residence time and recharge patterns in a saline coastal aquifer

A detailed study using environmental tracers such as chloride (Cl^?) and tritium (³H), deuterium (²H) and oxygen (¹⁸O) isotopes was performed in an alluvial coastal aquifer in two contrasting environments (urban and agricultural). These environmental tracers combined with a high‐resolution multi‐level sampling approach were used to estimate groundwater residence time and recharge patterns and to validate the hydrogeochemical conceptual model already proposed in previous studies. δ¹⁸O and δ²H combined with Cl^? data proved that the hypersaline groundwater present in the deepest part of the aquifer was sourced from the underlying hypersaline aquitard via an upward flux. Both chemical and isotopic data were employed to calibrate a density‐dependent numerical model based on SEAWAT 4.0, where ³H and Cl^? were helped quantifying solutes transport within the modelled aquifer. Model results highlighted the differences on estimated recharge in the two contrasting environments, with the urban one exhibiting concentrated recharge because of preferential infiltration associated to the storm water drains network, while scarce local recharge characterized the agriculture setting. In the urban field site, is still possible to recognize at 9 m b.g.l. the input of the atmospheric anthropogenic ³H generated by testing of thermonuclear weapons, while in the agricultural field site, the ³H peak has been washed out at 6 m b.g.l. because the groundwater circulation is restricted only to the upper fresh part of the aquifer, drained by the reclamation system. The presented approach that combined high‐resolution field monitoring, environmental tracers and numerical modelling, resulted effective in validating the conceptual model of the aquifer salinization. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A simple overland flow calculation method for distributed groundwater recharge models

A method to improve the calculation of overland flow in distributed groundwater recharge models is presented and applied to two sub‐catchments in the Thames Basin, UK. Recharge calculation studies tend to simulate the runoff flow component of river flow in a simplistic way, often as a fraction of rainfall over a particular period. The method outlined in this study intends to improve the calculation of groundwater recharge estimates in distributed recharge models but does not present an alternative to complex overland flow simulators. This method uses seasonally varying coefficients to calculate runoff for specified hydrogeological classes or runoff zones, which are used to model baseflow index variations across the basin. It employs a transfer function model to represent catchment storage. Monte Carlo simulation was applied to refine the runoff values. Decoupling the runoff zones between the two sub‐catchments produces a better match between the simulated and observed values; however, the difference between observed runoff and the simulated output indicates other factors, such as landuse and topographical characteristics that affect the generation of runoff flow, need to be taken into account when classifying runoff zones. British Geological Survey © NERC 2011. Hydrological Processes © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A numerical model for estimating groundwater flux from subsurface temperature profiles

A simple numerical model is presented for estimating vertical groundwater flux from transient subsurface temperature profiles obtained from field measurements. The model developed utilizes the MacCormack scheme, which is based on the Finite Difference Method (FDM), for solving the governing partial differential equation of convection–diffusion heat transport with appropriate initial and boundary conditions within the subsurface. In order to validate the model, numerical solutions obtained for the study area located in the Nagoka plain, Japan are compared with the published measured data and results obtained by others. Results obtained show good agreement and fit the observed data with a correlation coefficient, R², of 0·88. The estimated groundwater flux is 1·85 × 10⁻⁷ m s⁻¹. Sensitivity analyses were also carried out to investigate the effect of variations in groundwater fluxes, thermal properties and the annual thermal variability due to climatic changes on the transient subsurface temperature profiles and to have a better understanding of the subsurface thermal dynamics. A substantial effect of annual climatic variability is observed on the temporal distributions of temperature depth profiles, and a better estimate of thermal parameters is required to estimate vertical groundwater flux. The largest change in subsurface temperature depth profiles due to groundwater flux over a year is within ± 4 °C. The influence of groundwater flux on subsurface temperature distributions in space and time may be more pronounced in areas where the top of the saturated layer fluctuates considerably. Variation in thermal diffusivity results in temperature change up to ± 1·5% and may cause change in groundwater flux estimate by ± 18%. The model presented has merits over analytical solutions (type curve matching techniques) in terms of suitability and applicability to real field problems, and can be a good asset to hydrological models as quantifying groundwater recharge or deducing it from other quantities, such as rainfall, evapotranspiration and runoff, is often complicated. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Data time-step dependency of conceptual rainfall—streamflow model parameters: an empirical study with implications for regionalisation

Abstract

Employing 1-, 2-, 4-, 6-, 12- and 24-hourly data sets for two catchments (10.6 and 298 km²) in Wales, the calibrated parameters of a unit hydrograph-based model are shown to change substantially over that range of data time steps. For the smaller basin, each model parameter reaches, or approaches, a stable value as the data time step decreases, providing a straightforward method of estimating time-step independent model parameter values. For the larger basin, the model parameters also reach, or approach, stable values using hourly data, but, for reasons given in the paper, interpretation of the results is more difficult. Model parameter sensitivity analyses are presented that give insights into the relative precision on the parameters for both catchments. The paper discusses the importance of accounting for model parameter data time-step dependency in pursuit of a reduction in the uncertainty associated with estimates of flow in ungauged basins, and suggests that further work along these lines be undertaken using different catchments and models.     

Evaluation of three complementary relationship approaches for evapotranspiration over the Yellow River basin

Regional evapotranspiration is an important component of the hydrological cycle. However, reliable estimates of regional evapotranspiration are extremely difficult to obtain. In this study, the evapotranspiration simulated by three complementary relationship approaches, namely the Advection–Aridity (AA) model, the Complementary Relationship Areal Evapotranspiration (CRAE) model and the Granger (G) model, is evaluated with the observations over the Yellow River basin during 1981–2000. The simulations on overall annual evapotranspiration are reasonably good, with mean annual errors less than 10% except in extreme dry years. The AA model gives the best estimation for the monthly evapotranspiration, and the CRAE and GM models slightly overestimate in winter. In addition, the AA model presents the same closure error of water balance over the Yellow River basin as model G, which was less than that by the CRAE model. In rather dry and rather wet cases (with higher or lower available energy), all three models perform less well. Empirical parameters of these models need to be recalibrated before they can be applied to other regions. The distribution of evapotranspiration over the Yellow River basin is also discussed. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.