Trend detection in river flow series: 1. Annual maximum flow / Détection de tendance dans des séries de débit fluvial: 1. Débit maximum annuel

Abstract

Results of a study on change detection in hydrological time series of annual maximum river flow are presented. Out of more than a thousand long time series made available by the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) in Koblenz, Germany, a worldwide data set consisting of 195 long series of daily mean flow records was selected, based on such criteria as length of series, currency, lack of gaps and missing values, adequate geographical distribution, and priority to smaller catchments. The analysis of annual maximum flows does not support the hypothesis of ubiquitous growth of high flows. Although 27 cases of strong, statistically significant increase were identified by the Mann-Kendall test, there are 31 decreases as well, and most (137) time series do not show any significant changes (at the 10% level). Caution is advised in interpreting these results as flooding is a complex phenomenon, caused by a number of factors that can be associated with local, regional, and hemispheric climatic processes. Moreover, river flow has strong natural variability and exhibits long-term persistence which can confound the results of trend and significance tests.     

Trend detection in river flow series: 2. Flood and low-flow index series / Détection de tendance dans des séries de débit fluvial: 2. Séries d'indices de crue et d'étiage

Abstract

Major floods in Europe and North America during the past decade have provoked the question of whether or not they are an effect of a changing climate. This study investigates changes in observational data, using up to 100-year-long daily mean river flow records at 21 stations worldwide. Trends in seven flood and low-flow index series are assessed using Mann-Kendall and linear regression methods. Emphasis was on the comparison of trends in these flow index series, particularly in peak-over-threshold (POT) series as opposed to annual maximum (AM) river flow series. There is a larger number of significant trends in the AM than in the POT flood magnitude series, probably relating to the way the series are constructed. Low flood peaks occurring at the beginning or end of a time series with trend may be too low to be selected for the POT analysis. However, one peak per year will always be selected for the AM series, making the slope steeper and/or the series longer, resulting in a more significant trend. There is no general pattern of increasing or decreasing numbers or magnitudes of floods, but there are significant increases in half of the low-flow series.     

Developing environmental standards for abstractions from UK rivers to implement the EU Water Framework Directive / Développement de standards environnementaux sur les prélèvements d'eau en rivière au Royaume Uni pour la mise en œuvre de la directive cadre sur l'eau de l'Union Européenne

Abstract

Under the European Union Water Framework Directive, Member States must put in place a river basin planning framework to determine what measures are necessary to maintain and improve the ecological status for all surface water bodies. The governmental organisations legally responsible for implementing the Directive in the UK have recognised that an appropriate river flow regime is fundamental to maintain a healthy river and, as a result, they need to regulate abstractions and effluent discharges and ensure sufficient water is released from impoundments. This paper reports on the process of producing environmental standards that define the maximum abstraction allowable from UK rivers, to leave sufficient flow to maintain a healthy river ecosystem. As there are currently insufficient data available to determine the relationships between river flow and ecological status empirically, expert knowledge was captured through a series of workshops at which leading UK freshwater scientists defined maximum levels of river flow regime alteration that would achieve ecological objectives for different river water body types. For the least ecologically sensitive rivers, maximum abstractions in the range 15–35% of the natural flow were proposed, depending on the flow magnitude and time of year. For the most sensitive rivers, the maximum abstraction proposed was in the range 7.5–25%. The knowledge was used by the responsible UK authorities to develop environmental standards. The authorities subsequently used the environmental standards to determine regulatory standards that could be implemented within practical constraints and current licensing policies.     

High-resolution flood hazard mapping based on nonstationary frequency analysis: case study of Ho Chi Minh City,Vietnam

Flood modelling inputs used to create flood hazard maps are normally based on the assumption of data stationarity for flood frequency analysis. However, changes in the behaviour of climate systems can lead to nonstationarity in flood series. Here, we develop flood hazard maps for Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, under nonstationary conditions using extreme value analysis, a coupled 1D–2D model and high-resolution topographical data derived from LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) data. Our findings indicate that ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) and PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) influence the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall, while global sea-level rise causes nonstationarity in local sea levels, having an impact on flood risk. The detailed flood hazard maps show that areas of high flood potential are located along river banks, with 0.60 km² of the study area being unsafe for people, vehicles and buildings (H5 zone) under a 100-year return period scenario.     

Preliminary streamflow data analyses prior to water resources planning study / Analyses préliminaires des données de débit en vue d'une étude de planification des ressources en eau

Abstract

The analysis and use of hydrological data for decision making in water resources planning and management can only be meaningful if the data possess the appropriate characteristics. In general, it is customary that data being analysed are consistent, free of trend and constituting a stochastic process whose random component is described by an appropriate probability distribution hypothesis. This paper describes, using hypothetical numerical examples where possible, some of the commonly used tests for establishing the presence or otherwise of these attributes in hydrological data series. The tests were then applied to actual streamflow data records from seven sites, in Iran and England, which formed the basis of an extensive water resources planning study carried out recently. In general, the data from all seven sites possessed the right attributes, which made their use in the wider water resources planning study straightforward.     

Inundation extent as a key parameter for assessing the magnitude and return period of flooding events in southern Iceland

Abstract

River flow conditions in many watersheds of Iceland are particularly disturbed during winter by the formation, drifting and accumulation of river ice, whose impact on water encroachment and extent of inundations is not reflected in the discharge records. It is therefore necessary to use river discharge with great caution when assessing the magnitude of past inundations in Iceland, and to give attention to other flood magnitude parameters. A GIS-based methodology is presented that focuses on inundation extent as an alternative parameter for the assessment and ranking of the magnitude of past flooding events in the Ölfusá-Hvítá basin, known as one of the most dangerous flood-prone river complexes in Iceland. Relying ultimately on a macro-scale grid, the method enabled the reconstruction of the extent of inundations, the delineation of the flood plain, and, finally, some estimation of the likelihood of flooding of exposed areas that include marine submergences and river floods for both open water and ice conditions.

Citation Pagneux, E., Gísladóttir, G. & Snorrason, Á. (2010) Inundation extent as a key parameter for assessing the magnitude and return period of flooding events in southern Iceland. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(5), 704–716.     

Stream flow characterization and feature detection using a discrete wavelet transform

An exploration of the wavelet transform as applied to daily river discharge records demonstrates its strong potential for quantifying stream flow variability. Both periodic and non-periodic features are detected equally, and their locations in time preserved. Wavelet scalograms often reveal structures that are obscure in raw discharge data. Integration of transform magnitude vectors over time yields wavelet spectra that reflect the characteristic time-scales of a river's flow, which in turn are controlled by the hydroclimatic regime. For example, snowmelt rivers in Colorado possess maximum wavelet spectral energy at time-scales on the order of 4 months owing to sustained high summer flows; Hawaiian streams display high energies at time-scales of a few days, reflecting the domination of brief rainstorm events. Wavelet spectral analyses of daily discharge records for 91 rivers in the US and on tropical islands indicate that this is a simple and robust way to characterize stream flow variability. Wavelet spectral shape is controlled by the distribution of event time-scales, which in turn reflects the timing, variability and often the mechanism of water delivery to the river. Five hydroclimatic regions, listed here in order of decreasing seasonality and increasing pulsatory nature, are described from the wavelet spectral analysis: (a) western snowmelt, (b) north-eastern snowmelt, (c) mid-central humid, (d) south-western arid and (e) ‘rainstorm island’. Spectral shape is qualitatively diagnostic for three of these regions. While more work is needed to establish the use of wavelets for hydrograph analysis, our results suggest that river flows may be effectively classified into distinct hydroclimatic categories using this approach. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Century‐long records reveal slight,ecoregion‐localized changes in Athabasca River flows

Reports of abruptly declining flows of Canada's Athabasca River have prompted concern because this large, free‐flowing river could be representative for northern North America, provides water for the massive Athabasca oil‐sands projects and flows to the extensive and biodiverse Peace–Athabasca, Slave and Mackenzie River deltas. To investigate historic hydrology along the river and its major tributaries, we expanded the time series with interpolations for short data gaps; calculations of annual discharges from early, summer‐only records; and by splicing records across sequential hydrometric gauges. These produced composite, century‐long records (1913–2011) and trend detection with linear Pearson correlation provided similar outcomes to nonparametric Kendall τ‐b tests. These revealed that the mountain and foothills reaches displayed slight increases in winter discharges versus larger declines in summer discharges and consequently declining annual flows (~0.16% per year at Hinton; p < 0.01). Conversely, with contrasting boreal contributions, the Athabasca River at Athabasca displayed no overall trend in monthly or annual flows, but there was correspondence with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation that contributed to a temporary flow decline from 1970 to 2000. These findings from century‐long records contrast with interpretations from numerous shorter‐term studies and emphasize the need for sufficient time series for hydrologic trend analyses. For Northern Hemisphere rivers, the study interval should be at least 80 years to span two Pacific Decadal Oscillation cycles and dampen the influence from phase transitions. Most prior trend analyses considered only a few decades, and this weakens interpretations of the hydrologic consequences of climate change. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Trend assessment of annual instantaneous maximum flows in Turkey

A comprehensive evaluation of trends in annual instantaneous maximum flows (AIMF) from 153 gauge stations located in 26 river basins in Turkey is presented. Two traditional non-parametric trend tests, the Mann-Kendall (MK) and Spearman’s rho (SR), are used to quantify the significance of trends, while Sen’s slope method is applied to determine the magnitude of trends. The traditional tests indicate that the AIMF records of 57 stations showed statistically decreasing trends, while those of six stations showed an increasing trend. Sen’s trend method, which provides more detailed assessment of the trends in different clusters (low, medium and high), was applied to the AIMF series and the results were compared with traditional tests. Sen’s trend method indicated that all flow clusters at nine stations have increasing or decreasing trends, although no significant trend was detected by the MK and SR tests.     

Simulation of sediment transport during flood events: laboratory work and field experiments

Abstract

This paper aims at initiating a fundamental understanding of the suspended load transport of river sediment in unsteady flow. Laboratory erosion tests as well as artificial flood experiments are used to evaluate the influence of the transient regime on the transport efficiency of the flow. The erosion experiments reveal that the transport capacity is augmented when the unsteadiness of the flow increases. However, the influence of the transient regime is counteracted by the cohesive properties of the river bed. Field experiments with artificial floods released from a reservoir into a small canal confirm these findings and show a relationship between the friction velocity and the suspended load transport. An appropriate parameter β is proposed to evaluate the impact of the transient regime on the transport of suspended sediment.     

基于相位差谱的时─频非平稳人造地震动的生成

本文首先考察了地震动加速度时程在时域和频域上的非平稳性，通过实例分析说明地震动加速度时程 的非平稳性不能由相位谱的概率分布唯一决定，进而阐明了相位差谱是影响地震动非平稳的决定性因素。经 统计检验确定了脉动相位差的概率分布模型，利用相位差谱的数字特征与地震特性参数之间的统计关系，给 出了基于相位差谱的地震动时程生成方法。最后，通过对计算实例的分析，证实了此方法能够反映并模拟实 际地震动的时─频非平稳性。     

The effects of climate changes on aquifer storage and river baseflow

Abstract

The effects of changes in climate on aquifer storage and groundwater flow to rivers have been investigated using an idealized representation of the aquifer/river system. The generalized aquifer/river model can incorporate spatial variability in aquifer transmissivity and is applied with parameters characteristic of Chalk and Triassic sandstone aquifers in the United Kingdom, and is also applicable to other aquifers elsewhere. The model is run using historical time series of recharge, estimated from observed rainfall and potential evaporation data, and with climate inputs perturbed according to a number of climate change scenarios. Simulations of baseflow suggest large proportional reductions at low flows from Chalk under high evaporation change scenarios. Simulated baseflow from the slower responding Triassic sandstone aquifer shows more uniform and less severe reductions. The change in hydrological regime is less extreme for the low evaporation change scenario, but remains significant for the Chalk aquifer.     

Long-period of the 1999 ground motion characteristic Jiji （Chi-Chi）, Taiwan, mainshock and aftershocks

This paper investigates long-period ground motion characteristic of the 1999 Jiji （Chi-Chi）, Taiwan, mainshock and aftershocks on the basis of lots of high quality digital strong motion records. The study attaches the importance to the variation of strength of the long-period ground motion with the magnitude, distance, and site condition. In the meantime, the near-fault long-period ground motion characteristic is analyzed. The result shows that the shape of the long-period response spectrum is mainly controlled by site condition and magnitude （the spectrum of class D＋E is wider than that of class B＋C, and the spectrum of larger magnitude is wider than that of smaller magni- tude）, and the effect of fault distance on the shape is not evident. And near-fault long-period ground motion characteristic depends on fault activity apparently, that is to say, the long-term ground motion in the hanger is stronger than that in the footwall, and the long-term ground motion in the north is stronger than that in the south.     

Variability in the discharge of South American rivers and in climate / Variabilité des débits de rivières d'Amérique du Sud et du climat

Abstract

Changes in trend and quasi-periodicities are sought in the time series of river discharges in all major South American basins. The relationship between trends and quasi-periodicities found and climate variations on interannual and longer time scales are discussed. Consideration of multiple rivers gives insight into the geographical extent of hydrological signals and climate impacts. It is found that the streamflow of all major rivers of South America has experienced an increased trend since the early 1970s. It is suggested that this simultaneity may reflect the impact of a large-scale climate change. All the time series of river streamflows that were analysed show El Niño-like periodicities. Only for La Plata Basin do these explain a larger part of the total variance than the other quasi-periodicities. There are two other quasi-oscillations in the time series analysed: one of them with a longer period—around 17 years—and the other of about 9 years. Previous work has related these oscillations to sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Atlantic Ocean.     

Nonstationarity-based evaluation of flood risk in the Pearl River basin: changing patterns,causes and implications

Nonstationary GEV-CDN models considering time as a covariate are built for evaluating the flood risk and failure risk of the major flood-control infrastructure in the Pearl River basin, China. The results indicate: (1) increasing peak flood flow is observed in the mainstream of the West River and North River basins and decreasing peak flood flow is observed in the East River basin; in particular, increasing peak flood flow is detected in the mainstream of the lower Pearl River basin and also in the Pearl River Delta region, the most densely populated region of the Pearl River basin; (2) differences in return periods analysed under stationarity and nonstationarity assumptions are found mainly for floods with return periods longer than 50 years; and (3) the failure risks of flood-control infrastructure based on failure risk analysis are higher under the nonstationarity assumption than under the stationarity assumption. The flood-control infrastructure is at higher risk of flood and failure under the influence of climate change and human activities in the middle and lower parts of Pearl River basin.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis

ASSOCIATE EDITOR G. Thirel     

震前蒙城地震台地脉动噪声的特征

对本台数字化地震观测以来记录到的典型地震,运用数字地震信号处理方法,测算每个抽选地震震前一分钟地脉动信号在时间域和频率域的特征数据,通过频谱分析法,获得了震前地脉动噪声频谱的差异性。初步研究了典型地震震前地脉动频谱变化的特征和规律,共归纳了18类震前地脉动噪声类型,按照无震平静分钟值脉动频谱特征类比典型地震震前分钟值频谱的异样变化,发现正常与异常的地脉动噪声特征,最主要的还是受震级强度和地理位置的影响较大。临震前地脉动分钟值频谱特征异常,可用于震前脉动前兆异常变化跟踪,从而利用地脉动频谱的特征参量监测地震孕育过程,为地震中长期及短临预报提供依据。     

Bivariate frequency analysis of nonstationary low‐flow series based on the time‐varying copula

Many studies have analysed the nonstationarity in single hydrological variables due to changing environments. Yet, few researches have been done to investigate how the dependence structure between different individual hydrological variables is affected by changing environments. To investigate how the reservoirs have altered the dependence structure between river flows at different locations on the Hanjiang River, a time‐varying copula model, which takes the nonstationarity in the marginal distribution and/or the time variation in dependence structure between different hydrological series into consideration, is presented in this paper to perform a bivariate frequency analysis for the low‐flow series from two neighbouring hydrological gauges. The time‐varying moments model with either time or reservoir index as explanatory variables is applied to build the time‐varying marginal distributions of the two low‐flow series. It's found that both marginal distributions are nonstationary, and the reservoir index yields better performance than the time index in describing the nonstationarities in the marginal distributions. Then, the copula with the dependence parameter expressed as a function of either time or reservoir index is applied to model the variable dependence between the two low‐flow series. The copula with reservoir index as the explanatory variable of the dependence parameter has a better fitting performance than the copula with the constant or the time‐trend dependence parameter. Finally, the effect of the time variation in the joint distribution on three different types of joint return periods (i.e. AND, OR and Kendall) of low flows at two neighbouring hydrological gauges is presented. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Temporal scaling in river flow: can it be chaotic? / L’invariance d’échelle de l’écoulement fluvial peut-elle être chaotique?

Abstract

Abstract Identification of the presence of scaling in the river flow process has been a challenging problem in hydrology. Studies conducted thus far have viewed this problem essentially from a stochastic perspective, because the river flow process has traditionally been assumed to be a result of a very large number of variables. However, recent studies employing nonlinear deterministic and chaotic dynamic concepts have reported that the river flow process could also be the outcome of a deterministic system with only a few dominant variables. In the wake of such reports, a preliminary attempt is made in this study to investigate the type of scaling behaviour in the river flow process (i.e. chaotic or stochastic). The investigation is limited only to temporal scaling. Flow data of three different scales (daily, 5-day and 7-day) observed in each of three rivers in the USA: the Kentucky River in Kentucky, the Merced River in California and the Stillaguamish River in Washington, are analysed. It is assumed that the dynamic behaviour of the river flow process at these individual scales provides clues about the scaling behaviour between these scales. The correlation dimension is used as an indicator to distinguish between chaotic and stochastic behaviours. The results are mixed with regard to the type of flow behaviour at individual scales and, hence, to the type of scaling behaviour, as some data sets show chaotic behaviour while others show stochastic behaviour. They suggest that characterization (chaotic or stochastic) of river flow should be a necessary first step in any scaling study, as it could provide important information on the appropriate approach for data transformation purposes.     

Recent changes in the level of Lake Abiyata,central main Ethiopian Rift

Abstract

The spatial and temporal variations in the level of Lake Abiyata and controlling natural and manmade factors are presented. This study has been made by combining evidence from hydrometeorological and lake level records, water budget analyses, aerial photograph and satellite imagery interpretations, and numerical groundwater flow modelling. The most important components of the water balance of the lake are precipitation, river inflow and evaporation. The lake level has been fluctuating considerably over a wide range (by 6 m during the last 60 years) strongly controlled by the precipitation trends in the adjacent highlands. Climatic changes and consequent reduction in the surface water inputs have resulted in the reduction of its size. Recent abstraction of water for irrigation and soda ash production have drastically changed both the lake level and its hydrochemistry. This change appears to have grave environmental consequences on the fragile rift lacustrine ecosystem.