Multi-stage flood routing for gated reservoirs and conjunctive optimization of hydroelectricity income with flood losses

Abstract

A six-stage operation policy for routing of flood hydrographs of return periods from 1.01 year up to the Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) for any dam having a gated spillway is proposed. The gate opening rules are determined depending on the recent pool level. Regardless of the size and timing of any incoming floods, the fixed rules of the six-stage operation policy will provide optimum routing for all, which are classified into six different groups based on their return periods. 10-, 100-, 1000-, 10 000- 100 000-year floods, and PMF are the upper limits for the six groups. Next, an Incremental Dynamic Programming programme is developed to optimize both the firm and secondary energies of hydroelectric generation at monthly periods. First, the six-stage flood routing programme is applied sequentially to three dams, all on the Seyhan River in Turkey, for 18 combinations resulting from different active storages, and optimum flood operation policies for all three dams for all 18 combinations are determined. Second, the Dynamic Programming programme is applied to these three dams, and optimum hydroelectricity generation policies for all 18 combinations are computed. Finally, the optimum active and flood retention storages for the three dams are determined so as to maximize the net probability-weighted present worth of hydroelectricity benefits minus flood damage costs.     

Validation of methods to estimate design discharge flow rates for dam spillways with large regulating capacity

Abstract

The estimation and review of discharge flow rates in hydraulic works is a fundamental problem in water management. In the case of dams with large regulating capacity, in order to estimate return periods of discharge flow rates from the spillways, it becomes necessary to consider both peak flow and volume of the incoming floods. In this paper, the results of the validation for several methods of assessing design floods for spillways of dams with a large flood control capacity are presented; the validation is performed by comparing the maximum outflows (or the maximum levels reached in the reservoir) obtained from the routing of the design floods with those obtained from the routing of the historical annual maximum floods. The basin of Malpaso Dam, Mexico, is used as the case study.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Domínguez, M.R. and Arganis, J.M.L., 2012. Validation of methods to estimate design discharge flow rates for dam spillways with large regulating capacity. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (3), 460–478.     

Maximum observed floods in China

Abstract

Maximum observed floods (MOF) and their envelope curves are useful to hydrological engineers when estimating probable maximum floods or design floods. The World MOF and its envelope curve were developed originally in 1967 and modified in 2009 by our team. Based on MOF concepts and observed hydrological data in China, the China MOF and its envelope curve are presented, and their characteristics analysed. The results will be useful for flood design, for example for dam spillways, in China and in similar regions, in particular where no data are available, but cannot be used without modification and comparative analyses.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Li, C., Wang, G., and Li, R., 2013. Maximum observed floods in China. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (3), 728–735.     

Hybrid method to update the design flood shape for spillway operation in a dam: case study of the Huites Dam,Mexico

To design and review the operation of spillways, it is necessary to estimate design hydrographs, considering their peak flow, shape and volume. A hybrid method is proposed that combines the shape of the design hydrograph obtained with the UNAM Institute of Engineering Method (UNAMIIM) with the peak flow and volume calculated from a bivariate method. This hybrid method is applied to historical data of the Huites Dam, Sinaloa, Mexico. The goal is to estimate return periods for the maximum discharge flows (that account for the damage caused downstream) and the maximum levels reached in the dam (measure of the hydrological dam safety) corresponding to a given spillway and its management policy. Therefore, to validate the method, the results obtained by the flood routing of the 50-year hydrograph are compared with those obtained by the flood routing of the three largest historical floods. Both maximum flow and elevation were in the range of values observed within 37.5–75 years corresponding to the length of the historical record.     

Book reviews

Abstract

Statistical and deterministic modelling estimates of flood magnitudes and frequencies that can affect flood-plain ecology in the upper Ahuriri River catchment, a mountainous high country catchment in the New Zealand Southern Alps, were evaluated. Statistical analysis of 46 years of historical data showed that floods are best modelled by the generalized extreme value and lognormal distributions. We evaluated application of the HEC-HMS model to this environment by modelling flood events of various frequencies. Model results were validated and compared with the statistical estimates. The SCS curve number method was used for losses and runoff generation, and the model was very sensitive to curve number. The HEC-HMS flood estimates matched the statistical estimates reasonably well, and, over all return periods, were on average approximately 1% greater. However, the model generally underestimated flood peaks up to the 25-year event and overestimated magnitudes above this. The results compared well with other regional estimates, including studies based on L-moments, and showed that this catchment has smaller floods than other similarly-sized catchments in the Southern Alps.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor H. Aksoy

Citation Caruso, B.S., Rademaker, M., Balme, A., and Cochrane, T.A., 2013. Flood modelling in a high country mountain catchment, New Zealand: comparing statistical and deterministic model estimates for ecological flows. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (2), 328–341.     

CYCLES D'ÉVOLUTION DE LA COMPOSITION CHIMIQUE DES EAUX SOUTERRAINES / DANS CERTAINES SITUATIONS HYDROGÉOLOGIQUES TYPIQUES DU BASSIN DE LA MÉDITERRANÉE

Abstract

Results of a comprehensive synoptic-hydrological analysis of major flood events in the Negev (1964–2007) are presented. A low threshold for major flood data was set to be the 10-year recurrence interval of peak discharge and/or flood volume magnitude. Altogether, 75 major flood events, or 133 hydrometrically monitored floods, were extracted. These events were categorized according to synoptic oriented classes by verification of the paired databases of: (a) floods in the study area, and (b) synoptic systems over the Eastern Mediterranean. For the study area, two of the most frequent flood-generating synoptic systems are the autumn Red Sea Trough (RST), 31%, and winter cyclones, 49%. The entire RST series consists of 24 major flood events (55 floods). The synoptic definition was corroborated by analysing the specific form of flood hydrographs and the ratio of flood volume to peak discharge. Regional analysis shows increased contribution of RST events southwards from 30% to 90% with a respective decrease in the number of cyclone events. By comparing two 22-year sub-periods (1964–1985 and 1986–2007), a positive trend in the frequency and magnitudes of RST flood events is discerned. There is also an increased tendency for the occurrence of cyclone floods.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Shentsis, I., Laronne J.B., and Alpert, P., 2012. Red Sea Trough flood events in the Negev, Israel (1964–2007). Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (1), 42–51.     

A new seasonal design flood method based on bivariate joint distribution of flood magnitude and date of occurrence

Abstract

Seasonal design floods which consider information on seasonal variation are very important for reservoir operation and management. The seasonal design flood method currently used in China is based on seasonal maximum (SM) samples and assumes that the seasonal design frequency is equal to the annual design frequency. Since the return period associated with annual maximum floods is taken as the standard in China, the current seasonal design flood cannot satisfy flood prevention standards. A new seasonal design flood method, which considers dates of flood occurrence and magnitudes of the peaks (runoff), was proposed and established based on copula function. The mixed von Mises distribution was selected as marginal distribution of flood occurrence dates. The Pearson Type III and exponential distributions were selected as the marginal distribution of flood magnitude for annual maximum flood series and peak-over-threshold samples, respectively. The proposed method was applied at the Geheyan Reservoir, China, and then compared with the currently used seasonal design flood methods. The case study results show that the proposed method can satisfy the flood prevention standard, and provide more information about the flood occurrence probabilities in each sub-season. The results of economic analysis show that the proposed design flood method can enhance the floodwater utilization rate and give economic benefits without lowering the annual flood protection standard.

Citation Chen, L., Guo, S. L., Yan, B. W., Liu, P. & Fang, B. (2010) A new seasonal design flood method based on bivariate joint distribution of flood magnitude and date of occurrence. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(8), 1264–1280.     

Spillway design floods in Sweden: I. New guidelines

Abstract

The new Swedish guidelines for the estimation of design floods for dams and spillways are presented, with emphasis on high-hazard dams. The method is based on a set of regional design precipitation sequences, rescaled for basin area, season and elevation above sea level, and a full hydrological model. A reservoir operation strategy is also a fundamental component of the guidelines. The most critical combination of flood generating factors is searched by systematically inserting the design precipitation sequence into a ten year climatological record, where the initial snowpack has been replaced by a statistical 30-year snowpack. The new guidelines are applicable to single reservoir systems as well as more complex hydroelectric schemes, and cover snowmelt floods, rain floods and combinations of the two. In order to study the probabilities of the computed floods and to avoid regional inconsistencies, extensive comparisons with observed floods and frequency analyses have been carried out.     

Geobag stepped spillway for check dams: A pilot study

Check dams are widely used worldwide for the soil and water conservation. Many of them have no spillways, resulting in frequent dam breach failures during heavy rainfall events. This paper proposes a new geobag stepped spillway for small check dams. The structure of the spillway primarily consists of a stepped chute created from geobags filled with local soil compacted and consolidated with a small amount of cement. The developed composite geosynthetic material exhibits water erosion resistance,...     

Dam safety: an evaluation of some procedures for design flood estimation

Abstract

This paper analyses a number of aspects related to the estimation of the design flood for a dam. A new approach to the estimation of the probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is described which takes advantage of the spatial variability of precipitation by using radar-derived distributed rainfall measurements. Procedures which utilize storm transposition and storm maximization are introduced to estimate the probable maximum flood (PMF) and are compared with regionalized statistical methods based upon the Wakeby and generalized extreme value distributions.     

Flood-type trend analysis for alpine catchments

ABSTRACT

In many places, magnitudes and frequencies of floods are expected to increase due to climate change. To understand these changes better, trend analyses of historical data are helpful. However, traditional trend analyses do not address issues related to shifts in the relative contributions of rainfall versus snowmelt floods, or in the frequency of a particular flood type. We present a novel approach for quantifying such trends in time series of floods using a fuzzy decision tree for event classification and applied it to maximal annual and seasonal floods in 27 alpine catchments for the period 1980–2014. Trends in flood types were studied with Sen’s slope and double mass curves. Our results reveal a decreasing number of rain-on-snow and an increasing number of short rainfall events in all catchments, with flash floods increasing in smaller catchments. Overall, the results demonstrate the value of incorporating a fuzzy flood-type classification into flood trend analyses.     

The largest floods in the High Rhine basin since 1268 assessed from documentary and instrumental evidence

Abstract

The magnitudes of the largest known floods of the River Rhine in Basel since 1268 were assessed using a hydraulic model drawing on a set of pre-instrumental evidence and daily hydrological measurements from 1808. The pre-instrumental evidence, consisting of flood marks and documentary data describing extreme events with the customary reference to specific landmarks, was “calibrated” by comparing it with the instrumental series for the overlapping period between the two categories of evidence (1808–1900). Summer (JJA) floods were particularly frequent in the century between 1651–1750, when precipitation was also high. Severe winter (DJF) floods have not occurred since the late 19th century despite a significant increase in winter precipitation. Six catastrophic events involving a runoff greater than 6000 m ³ s^‐1 are documented prior to 1700. They were initiated by spells of torrential rainfall of up to 72 h (1480 event) and preceded by long periods of substantial precipitation that saturated the soils, and/or by abundant snowmelt. All except two (1999 and 2007) of the 43 identified severe events (SEs: defined as having runoff > 5000 and < 6000 m ³ s ^‐1) occurred prior to 1877. Not a single SE is documented from 1877 to 1998. The intermediate 121-year-long “flood disaster gap” is unique over the period since 1268. The effect of river regulations (1714 for the River Kander; 1877 for the River Aare) and the building of reservoirs in the 20th century upon peak runoff were investigated using a one-dimensional hydraulic flood-routing model. Results show that anthropogenic effects only partially account for the “flood disaster gap” suggesting that variations in climate should also be taken into account in explaining these features.

Citation Wetter, O., Pfister, C., Weingartner, R., Luterbacher, J., Reist, T., & Trösch, J. (2011) The largest floods in the High Rhine basin since 1268 assessed from documentary and instrumental evidence. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(5), 733–758.     

Safety of Italian dams in the face of flood hazard

Most rivers in Italy are segmented by dams that need rehabilitation because of (1) safety requirements by increasingly risk-averse societies, (2) changes in the downstream river and riparian system after dams building, (3) poor initial design at the time of completion and (4) modified priorities of watershed management. Safe design of flood spillways is a major concern, and requires to cope with low frequency flood hazard. One must estimate flood figures with high return periods (R ⩾ 1000–10,000 years) but statistical methods involve large uncertainties because of the short length of the available records. This paper investigates the return period of the design flood of existing spillways R_S of large dams in Italy. We used re-normalized flood frequency approach and regionalization using the Generalized Extreme Value distribution. The estimation of the site specific index flood is carried out by simple scaling with basin area at the regional level. The result show that 55% (245) of the 448 examined dams are equipped by spillway with R_S > 10,000; and 71% (315) of the dams have R_S > 1000. Conversely, 29% (130) of the dams display R_S < 1000 years, lower than acceptable hazard. The spillway of 14% (62) of the dams has R_S < 100 years, indicating potential exceedance of spillways capacity. Reservoir routing may dampen the outflow hydrograph, but one should carefully account for the need of achieving accurate dam safety assessment of these dams based on site specific investigations, also accounting for global change forcing.     

Hydrological considerations for dam siting in arid regions: a Saudi Arabian study

Abstract

In any dam siting study in arid regions, rainfall records, runoff measurements and their greatest magnitudes are very important. Unfortunately, the data are scarce and, therefore, empirical approaches and charts obtained from similar regions in other parts of the world are necessary for complete applications. The lack of observed data presents the major problem for runoff modelling in arid regions. These regions have characteristically high rainfall intensity and consequent flash floods with large amounts of sediments. Occurrence of rainfall is sporadic, both temporally and spatially, which makes the interpretation of the rainfall-runoff relationship quite difficult. Flood estimations play a significant role in dam siting from the point of view of water availability. This paper presents the basic calculations of floods and sediment amounts that are necessary in dam siting and construction in an arid area by considering the southwestern part of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.     

OVERVIEW OF DAM GULLY EROSION RESEARCH

Traditionally gully erosion has been identified with the dissection of the landscape in agricultural settings but it is also recognized as a prevalent erosion feature in earthen dam auxiliary spillways and embankments. Flows through earthen spillways and over dam embankments, due to large rainfall events, have the potential to erode and breach the dam or spillway and result in catastrophic releases from the reservoir. The gully erosion process in an earthen spillway or on an embankment can be characterized by stages of initiation, development, and migration of a headcut. A headcut is defmed as a near vertical drop at the upstream end of a gully. The rate of headcut migration is important in determining the breach potential of an earthen spillway and dam embankment. A research program is being conducted to examine the gully erosion processes of earthen dam auxiliary spillways and embankments. This paper describes： l ） the unique test facilities constructed to examine the dominant factors affecting the erosion of earthen spillways and embankments; 2） the observations of the erosion processes and results to date; and 3） the predictive relationships that have been developed for dam gully erosion research at the ARS Hydraulic Engineering Research Unit laboratory in Stillwater, OK.     

G) Personalia

Abstract

This paper proposes a framework for identifying the parameters of a lumped routing model in small to medium sized catchments where lateral inflows can be large but poorly defined. In a first step, a priori estimates of the parameters are made based on topography, aerial photographs, flood marks and field surveys. In a second step, runoff data are analysed of reservoir release events and convective events where no rainfall in the direct catchments occurred. In a third step the routing model is calibrated to the results of hydrodynamic models for scenarios of different magnitudes. In a fourth step, these pieces of information are combined, allowing for soft expert judgement to be incorporated. In a fifth step, the routing parameters are fine tuned to observed flood events where lateral inflows are estimated by a rainfall—runoff model. The framework is illustrated by the Kamp flood forecasting system in Austria that has been in operational use since 2006.     

Trend detection in river flow series: 2. Flood and low-flow index series / Détection de tendance dans des séries de débit fluvial: 2. Séries d'indices de crue et d'étiage

Abstract

Major floods in Europe and North America during the past decade have provoked the question of whether or not they are an effect of a changing climate. This study investigates changes in observational data, using up to 100-year-long daily mean river flow records at 21 stations worldwide. Trends in seven flood and low-flow index series are assessed using Mann-Kendall and linear regression methods. Emphasis was on the comparison of trends in these flow index series, particularly in peak-over-threshold (POT) series as opposed to annual maximum (AM) river flow series. There is a larger number of significant trends in the AM than in the POT flood magnitude series, probably relating to the way the series are constructed. Low flood peaks occurring at the beginning or end of a time series with trend may be too low to be selected for the POT analysis. However, one peak per year will always be selected for the AM series, making the slope steeper and/or the series longer, resulting in a more significant trend. There is no general pattern of increasing or decreasing numbers or magnitudes of floods, but there are significant increases in half of the low-flow series.     

Improvement of a drainage system for flood management with assessment of the potential effects of climate change

Abstract

Runoff discharge in the Tuku lowlands, Taiwan, has increased with land development. Frequent floods caused by extreme weather conditions have resulted in considerable economic and social losses in recent years. Currently, numerous infrastructures have been built in the lowland areas that are prone to inundation; the measures and solutions for flood mitigation focus mainly on engineering aspects. Public participation in the development of principles for future flood management has helped both stakeholders and engineers. An integrated drainage–inundation model, combining a drainage flow model with a two-dimensional overland-flow inundation model is used to evaluate the flood management approaches with damage loss estimation. The proposed approaches include increasing drainage capacity, using fishponds as retention ponds, constructing pumping stations, and building flood diversion culverts. To assess the effects on the drainage system of projected increase of rainfall due to climate change, for each approach simulations were performed to obtain potential inundation extent and depth in terms of damage losses. The results demonstrate the importance of assessing the impacts of climate change for implementing appropriate flood management approaches.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Chang, H.-K., Tan, Y.-C., Lai, J.-S., Pan, T.-Y., Liu, T.-M., and Tung, C.-P., 2013. Improvement of a drainage system for flood management with assessment of the potential effects of climate change. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (8), 1581–1597.     

Dam risk assessment based on univariate versus bivariate statistical approaches: a case study for Argentina

Abstract

Considering floods as multivariate events allows a better statistical representation of their complexity. In this work the relevance of multivariate analysis of floods for designing or assessing the safety of hydraulic structures is discussed. A flood event is characterized by its peak flow and volume. The dependence between the variables is modelled with a copula. One thousand random pairs of variables are transformed to hydrographs, applying the Beta distribution function. Synthetic floods are routed through a reservoir to assess the risk of overtopping a dam. The resulting maximum water levels are compared to estimations considering the peak flow and volume separately. The analysis is performed using daily flows observed in the River Agrio in Neuquén Province, Argentina, a catchment area of 7300 km². The bivariate approach results in higher maximum water level values. Therefore the multivariate approach should be preferred for the estimation of design variables.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor S. Grimaldi