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1.
The warming of the Earth's atmosphere system is likely to change temperature and precipitation, which may affect the climate, hydrology and water resources at the river basins over the world. The importance of temperature change becomes even greater in snow or glacier dominated basins where it controls the snowmelt processes during the late‐winter, spring and summer months. In this study hydrologic responses of streamflow in the Pyanj and Vaksh River basins to climate change are analysed with a watershed hydrology model, based on the downscaled atmospheric data as input, in order to assess the regional climate change impact for the snowfed and glacierfed river basins in the Republic of Tajikistan. As a result of this analysis, it was found that the annual mean river discharge is increasing in the future at snow and glacier dominated areas due to the air temperature increase and the consequent increase in snow/ice melt rates until about 2060. Then the annual mean flow discharge starts to decrease from about 2080 onward because the small glaciers start to disappear in the glacier areas. It was also found that there is a gradual change in the hydrologic flow regime throughout a year, with the high flows occuring earlier in the hydrologic year, due to the warmer climate in the future. Furthermore, significant increases in annual maximum daily flows, including the 100‐year return period flows, at the Pyanj and Vaksh River basins toward the end of the 21st century can be inferred from flood frequency analysis results. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

2.
Abstract

This article tests the association between streamflow alteration and the alteration of ecologically significant hydraulic environments. There has been a recent shift in environmental flow assessments to develop rapid desktop-based approaches that are applicable in a regional context. Streamflow statistics (e.g. minimum monthly flow) are often chosen to predict the impact of streamflow alteration on aquatic ecosystems. The assumption that the flow–biota relationship will be obscured by the effect of how streamflow interacts with channel morphology is often acknowledged, but not quantified. In this study, streamflow statistics are derived for 19 reaches in four river systems in Victoria, Australia. Hydraulic metrics were used to quantify ecologically significant surface flow conditions (Froude number) and the area of bench inundation, shallow and deep water. Multivariate analysis was used to investigate the correlation between streamflow statistics altered with regulation and the hydraulic metrics. It was found that streamflow statistics have a weak correlation to surface flow condition and the area of shallow water under natural streamflow conditions. The results show that hydrologic statistics have limited utility in quantifying changes in hydraulic environments. A similar magnitude of flow alteration can produce diverse hydraulic results. The confounding influence of channel morphology prevents streamflow statistics being an adequate surrogate for the assessment of hydraulic alteration. Modelling flow–biota relationships in a regional context is limited by the inadequacy of streamflow statistics to model ecologically significant hydraulic function. Improving knowledge of ecohydraulically significant hydrologic statistics will improve the effectiveness of environmental flow planning to sustain instream habitat conditions. A probabilistic approach is required to enable a risk-based approach to desktop generalization of flow–biota relations.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor M. Acreman

Citation Turner, M. and Stewardson, M., 2014. Hydrologic indicators of hydraulic conditions that drive flow–biota relationships. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (3–4), 659–672.  相似文献   

3.
Periods of summertime low flows are often critical for fish. This study quantified the impacts of forest clear‐cutting on summertime low flows and fish habitat and how they evolved through time in two snowmelt‐dominant headwater catchments in the southern interior of British Columbia, Canada. A paired‐catchment analysis was applied to July–September water yield, the number of days each year with flow less than 10% of mean annual discharge, and daily streamflow for each calendar day. The postharvest time series were divided into treatment periods of approximately 6–10 years, which were analysed independently to evaluate how the effects of forestry changed through time. An instream flow assessment using a physical habitat simulation‐style approach was used to relate streamflow to the availability of physical habitat for resident rainbow trout. About two decades after the onset of logging and as the extent of logging increased to approximately 50% of the catchments, reductions in daily summertime low flows became more significant for the July–September yield (43%) and for the analysis by calendar day (11–68%). Reductions in summertime low flows were most pronounced in the catchment with the longest postharvest time series. On the basis of the temporal patterns of response, we hypothesize that the delayed reductions in late‐summer flow represent the combined effects of a persistent advance in snowmelt timing in combination with at least a partial recovery of transpiration and interception loss from the regenerating forests. These results indicate that asymptotic hydrological recovery as time progresses following logging is not suitable for understanding the impacts of forest harvesting on summertime low flows. Additionally, these reductions in streamflow corresponded to persistent decreases in modelled fish habitat availability that typically ranged from 20% to 50% during the summer low‐flow period in one of the catchments, suggesting that forest harvest may have substantial delayed effects on rearing salmonids in headwater streams.  相似文献   

4.
Around the world, long-term changes in the timing and magnitude of streamflow are testing the ability of large managed water resource systems constructed in the 20th century to continue to meet objectives in the 21st century. Streamflow records for unregulated rivers upstream of reservoirs can be combined with records downstream of reservoirs using a paired-watershed framework and concepts of water resource system performance to assess how reservoir management has responded to long-term change. Using publicly available data, this study quantified how the intra-annual timing of inflows and outflows of 25 major reservoirs has shifted, how management has responded, and how this has influenced reliability and vulnerability of the water resource system in the 668,000 km2 Columbia River basin from 1950 to 2012. Reservoir inflows increased slightly in early spring and declined in late spring to early fall, but reservoir outflows increased in late summer from 1950 to 2012. Average inflows to reservoirs in the low flow period exceeded outflows in the1950s, but inflows are now less than outflows. Reservoirs have increased hedging, that is, they have stored more water during the spring, in order to meet the widening gap between inflows and outflows during the summer low flow period. For a given level of reliability (the fraction of time flow targets were met), vulnerability (the maximum departure from the flow target) was greater during periods with lower than average inflows. Thus, the water management system in this large river basin has adjusted to multi-decade trends of declining inflows, but vulnerability, that is, the potential for excess releases in spring and shortfalls in summer, has increased. This study demonstrates the value of combining publicly available historical data on streamflow with concepts from paired-watershed analyses and metrics of water resource performance to detect, evaluate, and manage water resource systems in large river basins.  相似文献   

5.
ABSTRACT

We investigated the isotopic composition of the Urumqi River and documented seasonal variability attributable to the mixing of various flow sources. Next, we applied these isotopic signals to partition the sources and studied their temporal variability in summer. The isotope hydrology separation results indicated that groundwater is the dominant streamflow source (approximately 62.7%) in the Urumqi River. Precipitation is an important source for the Urumqi River; approximately 19.1–20.7% of the runoff came from precipitation during summer and early autumn. In summer, approximately 21.1% of the runoff is derived from glacial meltwater. In summer, with the increasing distance to the glacier front, groundwater accounts for a larger and larger percentage of the river water, and the contributions of precipitation and glacial meltwater gradually diminish. Throughout 2012, the proportions of precipitation and glacial meltwater in the streamflow were 17.6% and 14.7%, respectively, and only 5% of the streamflow was derived from snowmelt.
Editor Z. W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor not assigned  相似文献   

6.
ABSTRACT

Ten notable meteorological drought indices were compared on tracking the effect of drought on streamflow. A 730-month dataset of precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration for 88 catchments in Oregon, USA, representing pristine conditions, was used to compute the drought indices. These indices were correlated with the monthly streamflow datasets of the minimum, maximum and mean discharge, and the discharge monthly fluctuation; it was revealed that the 3-month Z-score drought index (Z3) has the best association with the four streamflow variables. The Mann-Kendall trend detection test applied to the latter index time series mainly highlighted a downward trend in the autumn and winter drought magnitude (DM) and an upward trend in the spring and summer DM (p = 0.05). Finally, the Pettitt test indicated an abrupt decline in the annual and autumn DM, which began in 1984 and 1986, respectively.  相似文献   

7.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6):1163-1176
Abstract

An area of rainforest in Trinidad (10°N, 61°W) is remarkably rich in biodiversity, and receives the highest amount of rainfall in the island due to its orography and the dominant northeast trade winds. However, a year-round transfer of water from its pristine rivers is likely in the future, with ecological consequences. The results of a pilot study are presented, based on a simple, and graphical, segment-scale multi-objective methodology for the estimation of the optimal instream flow of the 13 rivers in this area. This methodology is based on a dimensionless ecohydrological factor, Δ, which enables the required hydraulic mean depth at a river cross-section to be expressed in terms of the average species length at maturity for a target group of amphibians, birds, fish, mammals and reptiles. Moreover, the methodology considers the socio-economic cost of ecological degradation brought about by streamflow abstraction, as well as the economic benefit of the same. An example illustrates the estimation of optimal instream flow for a value of Δ and, thereby, the corresponding optimal river intake operating rule, based on the hydraulic characteristics of a 0.1 km segment of one of the rivers, for the 20-year average dry (January—May) and wet (June–December) seasons. The limitations of the pilot study, and areas for further research, are also highlighted with a hope that it will ultimately evolve into a decision-making tool for water resources management.  相似文献   

8.
Abstract

Climate variability and change play a crucial role in the vulnerable system of the Aksu River basin located in Kyrgyzstan and northwest China, providing precious water resources for the intense oasis agriculture of the Xinjiang Province (China). Ubiquitous warming and increase in precipitation (in the lower part of the basin) have been detected. Glaciers in the region are retreating. Seasonal trends in river discharge show an increase. A clear link could be demonstrated between daily temperature and lagged river discharge at two headwater stations in summer. However, the correlation breaks over short periods in the end of summer or beginning of autumn at the Xiehela station, when the high (over 95th percentile) flow peaks caused by the glacier lake outburst floods of the Merzbacher Lake occur. This feature is a challenge for the climate impact assessment in the region, as these regular outbursts have to be represented in the projections for the future as well.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis  相似文献   

9.
The Arctic is warming rapidly. Changing seasonal freezing and thawing cycles of the soil are expected to affect river run‐off substantially, but how soil frost influences river run‐off at catchment scales is still largely unknown. We hypothesize that soil frost alters flow paths and therefore affects storage–discharge relations in subarctic catchments. To test this hypothesis, we used an approach that combines meteorological records and recession analysis. We studied streamflow data (1986–2015) of Abiskojokka, a river that drains a mountainous catchment (560 km2) in the north of Sweden (68° latitude). Recessions were separated into frost periods (spring) and no‐frost periods (summer) and then compared. We observed a significant difference between recessions of the two periods: During spring, discharge was linearly related to storage, whereas storage–discharge relationships in summer were less linear. An analysis of explanatory factors showed that after winters with cold soil temperatures and low snowpack, storage–discharge relations approached linearity. On the other hand, relatively warm winter soil conditions resulted in storage–discharge relationships that were less linear. Even in summer, relatively cold antecedent winter soils and low snowpack levels had a propagating effect on streamflow. This could be an indication that soil frost controls recharge of deep groundwater flow paths, which affects storage–discharge relationships in summer. We interpret these findings as evidence for soil frost to have an important control over river run‐off dynamics. To our knowledge, this is the first study showing significant catchment‐integrated effects of soil frost on this spatiotemporal scale.  相似文献   

10.
The Nooksack River has its headwaters in the North Cascade Mountains and drains an approximately 2000 km2 watershed in northwestern Washington State. The timing and magnitude of streamflow in a snowpack‐dominated drainage basin such as the Nooksack River basin are strongly influenced by temperature and precipitation. Projections of future climate made by general circulation models (GCMs) indicate increases in temperature and variable changes in precipitation for the Nooksack River basin. Understanding the response of the river to climate change is crucial for regional water resources planning because municipalities, tribes, and industry depend on the river for water use and for fish habitat. We combine three different climate scenarios downscaled from GCMs and the Distributed‐Hydrology‐Soil‐Vegetation Model to simulate future changes to timing and magnitude of streamflow in the higher elevations of the Nooksack River. Simulations of future streamflow and snowpack in the basin project a range of magnitudes, which reflects the variable meteorological changes indicated by the three GCM scenarios and the local natural variability employed in the modeling. Simulation results project increased winter flows, decreased summer flows, decreased snowpack, and a shift in timing of the spring melt peak and maximum snow water equivalent. These results are consistent with previous regional studies, but the magnitude of increased winter flows and total annual runoff is higher. Increases in temperature dominate snowpack declines and changes to spring and summer streamflow, whereas a combination of increases in temperature and precipitation control increased winter streamflow. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
Streamflow variability in space and time critically affects anthropic water uses and ecosystem services. Unfortunately, spatiotemporal patterns of flow regimes are often unknown, as discharge measurements are usually recorded at a limited number of hydrometric stations unevenly distributed along river networks. Advances in understanding the physical processes that control the spatial patterns of river flows are therefore necessary to predict water availability at ungauged locations or to extrapolate pointwise streamflow observations. This work explores the use of the spatial correlation of river flows as a metric to quantify the similarity between hydrological responses of two catchments. Following a stochastic framework, 340,000 cross‐correlations between pairs of daily streamflows time series are predicted at a seasonal timescale across the contiguous United States using 413 catchments of the MOPEX dataset. Model predictions of streamflow correlation obtained in absence of run‐off information are successfully used to identify catchment outlets sharing similar discharge dynamics and flow regimes across a broad range of geomorphoclimatic conditions, without relying on calibration. The selection of reference streamgauges based on predicted streamflow correlation generally outperforms the selection based on spatial proximity, especially as the density of available gauged sections decreases. Interestingly, correlated outlets share a broad spectrum of hydrological signatures (mean discharge, flow variability, and recession properties), suggesting that catchments forced by analogous frequency and intensity of effective rainfall events might exhibit common geomorphoecological traits leading to similar hydrological responses. The proposed framework provides a physical basis to assist the regionalization of flow dynamics and to interpret the spatial variability of flow regimes along stream networks.  相似文献   

12.
Despite the significant role of precipitation in the hydrological cycle, few studies have been conducted to evaluate the impacts of the temporal resolution of rainfall inputs on the performance of SWAT (soil and water assessment tool) models in large-sized river basins. In this study, both daily and hourly rainfall observations at 28 rainfall stations were used as inputs to SWAT for daily streamflow simulation in the Upper Huai River Basin. Study results have demonstrated that the SWAT model with hourly rainfall inputs performed better than the model with daily rainfall inputs in daily streamflow simulation, primarily due to its better capability of simulating peak flows during the flood season. The sub-daily SWAT model estimated that 58 % of streamflow was contributed by baseflow compared to 34 % estimated by the daily model. Using the future daily and 3-h precipitation projections under the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) 4.5 scenario as inputs, the sub-daily SWAT model predicted a larger amount of monthly maximum daily flow during the wet years than the daily model. The differences between the daily and sub-daily SWAT model simulation results indicated that temporal rainfall resolution could have much impact on the simulation of hydrological process, streamflow, and consequently pollutant transport by SWAT models. There is an imperative need for more studies to examine the effects of temporal rainfall resolution on the simulation of hydrological and water pollutant transport processes by SWAT in river basins of different environmental conditions.  相似文献   

13.
Water temperatures in mountain streams are likely to rise under future climate change, with negative impacts on ecosystems and water quality. However, it is difficult to predict which streams are most vulnerable due to sparse historical records of mountain stream temperatures as well as complex interactions between snowpack, groundwater, streamflow and water temperature. Minimum flow volumes are a potentially useful proxy for stream temperature, since daily streamflow records are much more common. We confirmed that there is a strong inverse relationship between annual low flows and peak water temperature using observed data from unimpaired streams throughout the montane regions of the United States' west coast. We then used linear models to explore the relationships between snowpack, potential evapotranspiration and other climate-related variables with annual low flow volumes and peak water temperatures. We also incorporated previous years' flow volumes into these models to account for groundwater carryover from year to year. We found that annual peak snowpack water storage is a strong predictor of summer low flows in the more arid watersheds studied. This relationship is mediated by atmospheric water demand and carryover subsurface water storage from previous years, such that multi-year droughts with high evapotranspiration lead to especially low flow volumes. We conclude that watershed management to help retain snow and increase baseflows may help counteract some of the streamflow temperature rises expected from a warming climate, especially in arid watersheds.  相似文献   

14.
Successful applications of stochastic models for simulating and predicting daily stream temperature have been reported in the literature. These stochastic models have been generally tested on small rivers and have used only air temperature as an exogenous variable. This study investigates the stochastic modelling of daily mean stream water temperatures on the Moisie River, a relatively large unregulated river located in Québec, Canada. The objective of the study is to compare different stochastic approaches previously used on small streams to relate mean daily water temperatures to air temperatures and streamflow indices. Various stochastic approaches are used to model the water temperature residuals, representing short‐term variations, which were obtained by subtracting the seasonal components from water temperature time‐series. The first three models, a multiple regression, a second‐order autoregressive model, and a Box and Jenkins model, used only lagged air temperature residuals as exogenous variables. The root‐mean‐square error (RMSE) for these models varied between 0·53 and 1·70 °C and the second‐order autoregressive model provided the best results. A statistical methodology using best subsets regression is proposed to model the combined effect of discharge and air temperature on stream temperatures. Various streamflow indices were considered as additional independent variables, and models with different number of variables were tested. The results indicated that the best model included relative change in flow as the most important streamflow index. The RMSE for this model was of the order of 0·51 °C, which shows a small improvement over the first three models that did not include streamflow indices. The ridge regression was applied to this model to alleviate the potential statistical inadequacies associated with multicollinearity. The amplitude and sign of the ridge regression coefficients seem to be more in agreement with prior expectations (e.g. positive correlation between water temperature residuals of different lags) and make more physical sense. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

15.
In mountainous river basins of the Pacific Northwest, climate models predict that winter warming will result in increased precipitation falling as rain and decreased snowpack. A detailed understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of water sources across river networks will help illuminate climate change impacts on river flow regimes. Because the stable isotopic composition of precipitation varies geographically, variation in surface water isotope ratios indicates the volume-weighted integration of upstream source water. We measured the stable isotope ratios of surface water samples collected in the Snoqualmie River basin in western Washington over June and September 2017 and the 2018 water year. We used ordinary least squares regression and geostatistical Spatial Stream Network models to relate surface water isotope ratios to mean watershed elevation (MWE) across seasons. Geologic and discharge data was integrated with water isotopes to create a conceptual model of streamflow generation for the Snoqualmie River. We found that surface water stable isotope ratios were lowest in the spring and highest in the dry, Mediterranean summer, but related strongly to MWE throughout the year. Low isotope ratios in spring reflect the input of snowmelt into high elevation tributaries. High summer isotope ratios suggest that groundwater is sourced from low elevation areas and recharged by winter precipitation. Overall, our results suggest that baseflow in the Snoqualmie River may be relatively resilient to predicted warming and subsequent changes to snowpack in the Pacific Northwest.  相似文献   

16.
Traditional methods for studying surface water and groundwater interactions have usually been limited to point measurements, such as geochemical sampling and seepage measurement. A new methodology is presented for quantifying groundwater discharge to a river, by using river surface temperature data obtained from airborne thermal infrared remote sensing technology. The Hot Spot Analysis toolkit in ArcGIS was used to calculate the percentage of groundwater discharge to a river relative to the total flow of the river. This methodology was evaluated in the midstream of the Heihe River in the arid and semiarid northwest China. The results show that the percentage of groundwater discharge relative to the total streamflow was as high as 28%, which is in good agreement with the results from previous geochemical studies. The data analysis methodology used in this study is based on the assumption that the river water is fully mixed except in the areas of extremely low flow velocity, which could lead to underestimation of the amount of groundwater discharge. Despite this limitation, this remote sensing‐based approach provides an efficient means of quantifying the surface water and groundwater interactions on a regional scale.  相似文献   

17.
Mean daily streamflow records from 44 river basins in Romania with an undisturbed runoff regime have been analyzed for trends with the nonparametric Mann‐Kendall test for two periods of study: 1961–2009 (25 stations) and 1975–2009 (44 stations). The statistical significance of trends was tested for each station on an annual and seasonal basis, for different streamflow quantiles. In order to account for the presence of serial correlation that might lead to an erroneous rejection of the null hypothesis, a trend‐free prewhitening was applied to the original data series. The regional field significance of trends is tested by a bootstrap procedure. Changes in the streamflow regime in Romania are demonstrated. The main identified trends are an increase in winter and autumn streamflow since 1961 and a decrease in summer flow since 1975. The streamflow trends are well explained by recent changes in temperature and precipitation that occurred in the last 50 years. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
F. Genz  L.D. Luz 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5):1020-1034
Abstract

The hydrological regime of a river is defined by variables or representative curves that in turn have characteristics related to fluctuations in flow rates resulting from climate variability. Distinguishing between the causes of streamflow variations, i.e. those resulting from human intervention in the watershed and those due to climate variability, is not trivial. To discriminate the alterations resulting from climate variation from those due to regulation by dams, a reference hydrological regime was established using the classification of events based on mean annual streamflow anomalies and inferred climatic conditions. The applicability of this approach was demonstrated by analysis of the streamflow duration curves. An assessment of the hydrological regime in the lower reaches of the São Francisco River, Brazil, after the implementation of hydropower plants showed that the operation of the dams has been responsible for 59% of the hydrological changes, while the climate (in driest conditions) has contributed to 41% of the total changes.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Genz, F. and Luz, L.D., 2012. Distinguishing the effects of climate on discharge in a tropical river highly impacted by large dams. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (5), 1020–1034.  相似文献   

19.
枯水期咸潮入侵已经严重威胁到了感潮河流区域供水安全.本文通过构建避咸蓄淡供水模型,耦合了咸度预测、河库联合供水调度和供水安全分析模块,为依赖感潮河流为水源地的区域供水安全管理提供了一种整体思路和决策方法.以面向粤港澳大湾区珠海东部及澳门的珠江三角洲磨刀门水道取供水为例,基于潮汐、径流和风等因子及咸度实测数据,较好地拟合了基于BP神经网络的咸度预测模型,及含氯度与超标时间的曲线函数,建立了上游来水和咸度超标时间之间的联系,得到了避咸蓄淡取水时机.咸度预测与当地河库联合供水调度相结合,得到了上游枯水期来水过程的当地区域供需平衡状况.枯水期不考虑水库调蓄的资源性缺水临界需水量为3.22亿m3,水库参与调蓄的工程性缺水临界需水量为3.75亿m3.通过供水安全分析模块,基于设定的风险阈值和临界阈值识别出了不同需水规模的上游来水临界流量特征.对于当地规划的需水规模4.23亿m3,期望上游枯水期临界流量均值约为3372 m3/s.整体上来说,需水规模越大,对上游来水期望的临界流量越大,但同时还与枯水期流量分布有关.  相似文献   

20.
Diurnal variations in streamflow are becoming acknowledged as a way of analysing how changing climatic conditions and land use affects watersheds but also as a way to understand watersheds as a whole. Yet not many studies from uplands below 900 mm mean annual precipitation zone are available from European countries. During the 2012 growing season, a sampling campaign took place in an upland forested micro‐watershed, Czech Republic (65 ha). Tree sap flow, rainfall and temperature were measured continuously, while streamflow at the discharge point and soil moisture were estimated from short‐term measurements. Short precipitation‐free periods lasting several days were identified for evaluation of trends in diurnal dynamics of both sap flow and streamflow. The results demonstrated that during these periods, the main factor altering streamflow was almost exclusively tree sap flow. A decrease in streamflow was observed during the day and an increase at night. The decline in sap flow after sunset was accompanied by a continuous increase in streamflow throughout the night up to its initial maximum in the morning. The amplitude in diurnal variations reached 18%. The observed time lag between the diurnal variations of sap flow and streamflow was approximately 2 h. Relatively low changes in diurnal dynamics of streamflow pointed out a strong regulatory role of the forest in buffering water discharge from the catchment. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

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