On the use of statistical methods to interpret electrical resistivity data from the Eumsung basin (Cretaceous), Korea

Electrical resistivity mapping was conducted to delineate boundaries and architecture of the Eumsung Basin Cretaceous. Basin boundaries are effectively clarified in electrical dipole–dipole resistivity sections as high-resistivity contrast bands. High resistivities most likely originate from the basement of Jurassic granite and Precambrian gneiss, contrasting with the lower resistivities from infilled sedimentary rocks. The electrical properties of basin-margin boundaries are compatible with the results of vertical electrical soundings and very-low-frequency electromagnetic surveys. A statistical analysis of the resistivity sections is tested in terms of standard deviation and is found to be an effective scheme for the subsurface reconstruction of basin architecture as well as the surface demarcation of basin-margin faults and brittle fracture zones, characterized by much higher standard deviation. Pseudo three-dimensional architecture of the basin is delineated by integrating the composite resistivity structure information from two cross-basin E–W magnetotelluric lines and dipole–dipole resistivity lines. Based on statistical analysis, the maximum depth of the basin varies from about 1 km in the northern part to 3 km or more in the middle part. This strong variation supports the view that the basin experienced pull-apart opening with rapid subsidence of the central blocks and asymmetric cross-basinal extension.     

青藏高原北部地区地震统计区划分及地震活动特征

地震统计区的划分是研究地震活动性的重要前提和基础,通过对青藏高原北部地区构造地质背景的分析,依据地球物理特征和强震活动特点,讨论和划分该区地震活动统计区,探讨研究区地震活动的复发特点、地震构造特征、潜在地震危险性及强度,分析研究区未来强震发生的强度和可能地点,结果表明,目前青藏高原北部地区处于第8个活跃期,仍存在发生强震的可能,且未来数年存在发生7级以上地震的可能,应密切东昆仑断裂带东段和祁连山中西段地区。     

Long-term changes (1980–2003) in total ozone time series over Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes

Long-term changes in total ozone time series for Arosa, Belsk, Boulder and Sapporo stations are examined. For each station we analyze time series of the following statistical characteristics of the distribution of daily ozone data: seasonal mean, standard deviation, maximum and minimum of total daily ozone values for all seasons. The iterative statistical model is proposed to estimate trends and long-term changes in the statistical distribution of the daily total ozone data. The trends are calculated for the period 1980–2003. We observe lessening of negative trends in the seasonal means as compared to those calculated by WMO for 1980–2000. We discuss a possibility of a change of the distribution shape of ozone daily data using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and comparing trend values in the seasonal mean, standard deviation, maximum and minimum time series for the selected stations and seasons. The distribution shift toward lower values without a change in the distribution shape is suggested with the following exceptions: the spreading of the distribution toward lower values for Belsk during winter and no decisive result for Sapporo and Boulder in summer.     

Exploratory analysis of statistical post‐processing methods for hydrological ensemble forecasts

Despite many recent improvements, ensemble forecast systems for streamflow often produce under‐dispersed predictive distributions. This situation is problematic for their operational use in water resources management. Many options exist for post‐processing of raw forecasts. However, most of these have been developed using meteorological variables such as temperature, which displays characteristics very different from streamflow. In addition, streamflow data series are often very short or contain numerous gaps, thus compromising the estimation of post‐processing statistical parameters. For operational use, a post‐processing method has to be effective while remaining as simple as possible. We compared existing post‐processing methods using normally distributed and gamma‐distributed synthetic datasets. To reflect situations encountered with ensemble forecasts of daily streamflow, four normal distribution parameterizations and six gamma distribution parameterizations were used. Three kernel‐based approaches were tested, namely, the ‘best member’ method and two improvements thereof, and one regression‐based approach. Additional tests were performed to assess the ability of post‐processing methods to cope with short calibration series, missing values or small numbers of ensemble members. We thus found that over‐dispersion is best corrected by the regression method, while under‐dispersion is best corrected by kernel‐based methods. This work also shows key limitations associated with short data series, missing values, asymmetry and bias. One of the improved best member methods required longer series for the estimation of post‐processing parameters, but if provided with adequate information, yielded the best improvement of the continuous ranked probability score. These results suggest guidelines for future studies involving real operational datasets. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

液化识别方法盲测对比——以2011年2月22日新西兰6.3级地震为例

液化实时监测作为减轻地震灾害的新手段,其核心技术是建立依据强震记录识别场地液化的方法,但目前所提出的方法十分有限,可靠性也缺少实际地震检验.2011年新西兰地震中液化及其震害现象显著,为检验现有液化识别方法提供了条件.目前已有并可供程使用的四种液化识别方法为:Miyajima法、Suzuki法、KY法(Kostadin...     

空间大地测量GPS揭示的汾渭盆地及其邻域现今地壳应变场变化特征

利用汾渭盆地及其邻域2001-2007年与2009-2011年高精度GPS监测资料,基于区域构造特点,采用块体运动应变模型结合数理统计假设检验法,建立了区域合理的地壳运动应变模型,基于此定量研究了区域现今地壳应变场及其变化特征,特别是2008年汶川强震对汾渭盆地区域变形特征的作用影响,同时从盆地整体上分析了盆地内多发的地裂缝灾害与区域整体构造变形特征之间的内在关系.研究结果表明:经统计检验判断,选择合理的区域地壳运动应变模型,对获取真实反映区域实际构造变形特性的应变参数具有重要的作用;2008年汶川强震对青藏东边缘地块及渭河盆地西侧局部地区应变场造成一定的影响,但是震后上述区域并没有出现显著的应变积累而是呈现出应变量值较震前减小的特征,分析其原因可能是因为此区域并不是强震造成的库仑应力显著增加区,在震后2009-2011年时间段内处于构造应力场的松弛调整期;汶川强震没有显著改变研究域现今整体的构造变形背景特征,区域地壳构造活动特征仍具有较好的继承性;基于研究域构造块体具有各向同性连续弹性变形的前提,初步推断整个汾渭盆地内多发的地裂缝灾害可能是区域NW-SE向拉张应力场作用下的地表破裂响应.     

Blind detection of liquefaction by existing methods for New Zealand M L6.3 earthquake on Feb. 22, 2011

Real-time liquefaction monitoring and warning techniques are new ways to mitigate liquefaction hazard. A key point is to establish a reverse liquefaction detection method based on seismic records. However, the existing methods are quite limited and the reliability requires verification. On Feb. 22, 2011 an earthquake of magnitude 6.3 struck at New Zealand’s South Island. Remarkable liquefaction phenomena were reported, which provide an opportunity to verify the existing liquefaction detection methods. 27 acceleration records within 50 km to the epicenter were selected to perform a blind detection by using the existing methods, including Miyajima method, Suzuki method, Kostadinov-Yamazaki method and Yuan-Sun method. The blind detection results indicate that Yuan-Sun method gives correct results for seven confirmed sites, and Suzuki method and Yuan-Sun method yield correct detection for a reported non-liquefied site. Four methods including the Yuan-Sun method give identical detection for four sites and three methods also including the Yuan-Sun method give identical detection for ten sites. Besides, there are five sites, for which the four methods give opposite detection.     

土木工程结构健康诊断中的统计识别方法综述

本文对土木工程结构健康诊断中的统计识别方法进行了综述。对统计识别中的统计系统识别方法(Bayes模型修正、随机有限元模型修正)、统计模式识别方法和概率神经网络方法的基本理论及其在土木工程结构健康诊断中的研究现状进行了论述，在此基础上提出了土木工程结构健康诊断中统计识别方法需要解决的关键问题和研究发展方向。     

On the use of IMU (inertial measurement unit) sensors in geomorphology

Inertial measurement units (IMUs) are mobile sensors assemblies constructed using a combination of MEMS (micro electrical mechanical systems) accelerometers, gyroscopes and magnetometers. Both the technology and its applications to geomorphic problems are developing rapidly, since they demonstrate the prospect of monitoring individual sediment grains, of various sizes, during transport and at high frequency. This prospect has numerous implications which range from hazard identification and warning to complex theoretical derivations for sediment transport modelling. At the same time, the deployment of IMUs needs to be underpinned by a number of technical considerations regarding the limitations of the technology and the physics of the inertial measurements. IMU measurements should be reported in a manner that allows for clear understanding of the scope of the study, with sufficient detail for repeatability and clear error characterization. At a secondary level, IMU measurements should be linked clearly with the physics of sediment motion. Here the author highlights five technical issues which can lead to the misinterpretation of IMU measurements. His scope is to begin a dialogue towards a collective agreement on a presentation/reporting protocol for IMU measurements in geomorphic studies that will allow for the coherent contextualization of the technology and accelerate its scientific impact within geosciences.     

Fluctuations in the monthly discharge of Guyana Shield rivers,related to Pacific and Atlantic climate variability

Abstract

The discharge variability of the main rivers that drain the Guyana Shield is analysed over the last 50 years using cross-wavelet, coherence and composite analysis involving oceanic and atmospheric variables. We highlight the overall hydro-climatological homogeneity of this region that allowed us to focus on the longest discharge time series available. Therefore, a wavelet cross-analysis was carried out between monthly and seasonal Maroni River discharge at the Langa Tabiki station and selected climate indices. This confirms a strong relationship between the hydrology of the Guyana Shield and the Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST) fluctuations. There is evidence of intermittent influence, of between inter-annual and near decadal scales, of the Atlantic SST fluctuations, in particular around 1970 and 1990. Finally, we show that the links between oceanic regions and high discharge in the rivers of Guyana are realized through the reinforcement of the Walker and Hadley cells between the Amazon and the adjacent oceans and through decreased trade winds and monsoon flux that favour the persistence of humidity over the Guyana Shield.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor D. Hughes

Citation Labat, D., Espinoza, J.-C., Ronchail, J., Cochonneau, G., de Oliveira, E., Doudou, J.C. and Guyot, J.-L., 2012. Fluctuations in the monthly discharge of Guyana Shield rivers, related to Pacific and Atlantic climate variability. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (6), 1081–1091.     

On the use and error of approximation in the Domenico (1987) solution

A mathematical solution for solute transport in a three-dimensional porous medium with a patch source under steady-state, uniform ground water flow conditions was developed by Domenico (1987). The solution derivation strategy used an approximate approach to solve the boundary value problem, resulting in a nonexact solution. Variations of the Domenico (1987) solution are incorporated into the software programs BIOSCREEN and BIOCHLOR, which are frequently used to evaluate subsurface contaminant transport problems. This article mathematically elucidates the error in the approximation and presents simulations that compare different versions of the Domenico (1987) solution to an exact analytical solution to demonstrate the potential error inherent in the approximate expressions. Results suggest that the accuracy of the approximate solutions is highly variable and dependent on the selection of input parameters. For solute transport in a medium-grained sand aquifer, the Domenico (1987) solution underpredicts solute concentrations along the centerline of the plume by as much as 80% depending on the case of interest. Increasing the dispersivity, time, or dimensionality of the system leads to increased error. Because more accurate exact analytical solutions exist, we suggest that the Domenico (1987) solution, and its predecessor and successor approximate solutions, need not be employed as the basis for screening tools at contaminated sites.     

Post-eruptive seismic activity of Mount Cameroon (Cameroon), West Africa: a statistical analysis

Recent seismological studies of the Cameroon Volcanic Line show that Mt. Cameroon is the most active centre, so a permanent seismic network of six seismographs was set up in its region between 1984 and 1986. The network was reinforced with temporary stations up till 1987, and the local seismicity was studied. Here we emphasise a statistical analysis of seismic events recorded by the permanent seismic stations. Four swarms lasting 9 to 14 months are identified at intervals of 2–3 years. Most earthquakes are felt (intensity and magnitude, respectively, less than VI MM and 5) during the first three swarms and a few during repose periods. The main focal regions are the northwest and southeast flanks, the Bimbia and Bioko regions in the South of the volcano. Hypocentres are distributed from the surface to 60 km depth indicating crustal and subcrustal activities. The subcrustal events are observed only in the southeast flank, they are the most regular earthquakes with a monthly frequency of 9 to 15 events. They are characteristic earthquakes with magnitude 2.8 ± 0.1. Between 1984 and 1992, their yearly mean time interval between successive events range from 50 to 86 hours. For that period their occurrence can be modelled as a stationary renewal process with a 3-day period. But the analysis of variance shows possible significant differences among yearly means. A Weibull's distribution confirms that the time intervals between successive deep events are not independent, and in 1993 a swarm of deep earthquakes is recorded, hence a non-loglinear magnitude/frequency relation. The deep seismicity is thought to be associated with a zone of weakness (perhaps a magmatic conduit) and may have some close relationship with the magmatic activity.     

国内消能减震产品检测标准及方法差异性分析

作为建筑抗震的第一道防线,阻尼器在建筑结构抗震中发挥重要作用,在国内得到了广泛的应用。为规范消能减震行业的发展,我国制定了有关阻尼器检测的行业标准与地方标准,但在具体的检测内容如检测方法、检测设备和数据处理等方面存在差异和不清晰的地方。本文针对速度型阻尼器和位移型阻尼器,在检测参数、检测方法、判定指标和数据处理方法等方面,对比分析指出不同行业和地方检测标准的异同点,并通过试验验证和理论分析给出了推荐的阻尼器加载制度和参数定义,为相关标准的制定提供参考借鉴。     

官厅水库及周边地区地震活动趋势的综合统计预测

利用多种地震统计学分析预测方法，详细分析了官厅水库及周边地区的地震活动情况，和未来50年的地震危险性。综合分析最后认为，未来50年内，官厅水库及周边地区至少应发生一次5.5-6.5级地震和多次5级左右地震的可能性；外国较远地区则具有发生7级以上地震的可能，这里距大坝虽然较远，对大坝的安全可能不会构成真正威胁，但其周边地区可能发生的潜在地震，对水库的可能影响则应引起我们足够的注意及重视。     

基岩断层面古地震研究的主要方法与选点原则

随着断层面形貌测量、宇宙成因核素测年、地球化学元素测定和光释光等一系列新兴技术的突破,基岩断层面在古地震研究方面的特征优势被不断发掘,日益成为国际古地震研究的热点与前沿.国内外学者从不同专业角度开展了大量的基岩断层面古地震研究,取得了一系列丰硕成果.本文在系统介绍基岩断层面古地震研究的进展、梳理归纳各类研究方法特点的基...     

我国重力场新的统计特征参数的计算分析

基于地形信息,构造了完全布格异常和完全空间异常的协方差和代表误差模型参数等新统计量,利用某试验区密集的重力和地形数据进行了统计分析,并将计算方案推广到了全国大范围、多区域内的统计计算,给出了6种不同地形类别区域（平原、丘陵、小山区、中山区、大山区、特大山区）的完全空间异常和完全布格异常的方差、协方差以及代表误差模型参数.试验结果表明：依据本文的统计模型、算法与思路,在实际测量数据的支撑下,可以给出全国范围的统计参数的网格值、等值线图等,提供后续重力场相关研究工作使用.     

On the use of Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis in the simulation of random fields

In several fields of Geophysics, such as Hydrology, Meteorology or Oceanography, it is often useful to generate random fields, displaying the same variabilitity as the observed variables. Usually, these synthetic data are used as forcing fields into numerical models, to test the sensitivity of their outputs to the variability of the inputs. Examples can be found in subsurface or surface Hydrology and in Meteorology with General Circulation Models (GCM). Different techniques have already been proposed, often based on the spectral representation of the random process, with, usually, assumptions of stationarity. This paper suggests that Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis, which leads to the decomposition of the covariance kernel on the set of its eigen-functions, is a possible answer to this problem. The convergence and accuracy of the method are shown to depend mainly on the number of EOFs retained in the expansion of the covariance kemel. This result is confirmed by a comparison with the turning band method and a matrix technique. Furthermore, a synthetic example of non-homogencous fields shows the interest of EOF analysis in the direct simulation of such fields.     

Determining the maximum degree of harmonic coefficients in geopotential models by Monte Carlo methods

Random errors for the harmonic coefficients of a geopotential model are generated from the matrix of normal equations by a parallel computer applying the Gibbs sampler. This leads to random values for the harmonic coefficients. They are transformed by nonlinear, quadratic transformations to random values for the square roots of degree variances, of mean squares of geoid undulations and gravity anomalies. The expected values of these quantities are not equal to the values of these quantities computed by the estimated harmonic coefficients, due to correlations and errors in the estimation. By hypothesis tests estimated harmonic coefficients distorted by correlations and errors are detected. Applying the tests to the geopotential model ITG-CHAMP01 of the Institute of Theoretical Geodesy in Bonn it is concluded that above the degree 62 the harmonic coefficients cannot add any information to the geopotential model.     

一种综合统计方法——地震学参数异常总量分析

提出一种综合性的统计方法,地震学参数异常总量方法,该方法选取的研究区具有较好映震能力,并且具有明确物理意义的地震活动性参数,通过所选参数的异常总量进行统计分析,研究未来地震趋势估计.对研究区发生的14个震例分析发现,参数总量异常对研究区中强地震具有较好的对应关系,大震前常常出现明显的高值异常.分析认为,地震参数总量异常...