Uncertainty in levee heights and its effect on the spatial pattern of flood hazard in a floodplain

Levees are not usually built to a uniform height due to the varying priority of protecting urban and agricultural lands and they are often maintained in segments. Ad hoc alteration of the heights of these segments may aggravate flood conditions. Alterations lead to complex feedback loops in velocity and depth of water that are difficult to predict. A large number of possible configurations of the levee segments renders a deterministic modelling approach ineffective. The current analysis, based on a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model involving 1000 Monte Carlo realizations of randomly varying levee heights in segments, presents a methodology of dealing with the effect of uncertainty in levee heights on the inundation pattern in a probabilistic framework. Spatially distributed model outcomes include the likelihood of inundation, range and standard deviation of flood depths and maximum speed of water. The results indicate the necessity of adopting a probabilistic approach for robust flood hazard assessment when dealing with levee segments with uncertain heights.

EDITOR M.C. Acreman; ASSOCIATE EDITOR H. Kreibich     

Sub-grid scale parameterisation of 2D hydrodynamic models of inundation in the urban area

This paper presents preliminary results from a study considering the parameterisation of coarse-grid 2D flood models to take into account sub-grid scale flow patterns occurring in the urban area. A simulation of a severe flood in an urbanized coastal floodplain is first run using a fine grid that can resolve the flow around and between buildings. Next, the same model is run again using the same underlying topography, although stripped from any buildings, and a set of 7 values of the roughness parameter (Manning’s n), all larger than (or equal to) the value used in the original run. A further set of simulations is carried out using a five-fold increased grid cell size. It is found that while it may be possible to model the overall effects of the buildings using strongly increased roughness parameter values, using a coarse grid otherwise has implications related to the loss of information about the site topography that results in flood flow routes being incorrectly modelled.     

Evaluation of inundation areas resulting from the diversion of an extreme discharge towards the sea: case study in Tabasco,Mexico

This investigation comprises the hydraulic characterisation of a river located in the Mexican State of Tabasco, including the performance of its flood plain under the action of an extreme river discharge. This is done through the combination of a high‐quality validation dataset, remote sensing information, and a standard 2D numerical model. The dataset was collected during an intensive field campaign that took place in August 2009. In particular, in situ measurements of river discharge, bathymetry, water level, and velocities through a whole tidal cycle are employed along with multi‐spectral satellite imagery. The purpose of this study is twofold. Firstly, the integrated approach comprising the combination of a 2D hydrodynamic model, high‐quality in situ measurements and satellite imagery reduce the uncertainty in the model parameterisation and results. Secondly, it is shown that freely available sources of information, such as the Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) data can be processed and utilized in 2D hydraulic models. This is particularly important in countries where high‐resolution elevation data is not yet available. It is demonstrated that the selected approach is useful when the study of possible consequences in a flood plain induced by an extreme flood discharge are sought. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Field isotope investigations and numerical simulation of lake hydrodynamics

A three‐dimensional, numerical free‐surface‐flow simulation model is developed to investigate hydrodynamics of a lake and the predictive capabilities of the numerical model are validated by comparing them with field results obtained from Lake Naini, Uttar Pradesh, using environmental isotope (δ¹⁸O, δD and ³H) techniques. This has been carried out in order to understand the hydrodynamics of a lake (i.e. circulations, mixing and transport of water within the lake). Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparison of hydrodynamic models of different complexities to model floods with emergency storage areas

A flood emergency storage area (polder) is used to reduce the flood peak in the main river and hence, protect downstream areas from being inundated. In this study, the effectiveness of a proposed flood emergency storage area at the middle Elbe River, Germany in reducing the flood peaks is investigated using hydrodynamic modelling. The flow to the polders is controlled by adjustable gates. The extreme flood event of August 2002 is used for the study. A fully hydrodynamic 1D model and a coupled 1D–2D model are applied to simulate the flooding and emptying processes in the polders and flow in the Elbe River. The results obtained from the 1D and 1D–2D models are compared with respect to the peak water level reductions in the Elbe River and flow processes in the polders during their filling and emptying. The computational time, storage space requirements and modelling effort for the two models are also compared. It is concluded that a 1D model may be used to study the water level and discharge reductions in the main river while a 1D-2D model may be used when the study of flow dynamics in the polder is of particular interest. Further, a detailed sensitivity analysis of the 1D and 1D–2D models is carried out with respect to Manning's n values, DEMs of different resolutions, number of cross-sections used and the gate opening time as well as gate opening/closing duration. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Flooding and drying mechanisms of the seasonal Sudd flood plains along the Bahr el Jebel in southern Sudan

Abstract

The flooding and drying mechanisms of the seasonal flood plains of the Sudd swamps in southern Sudan are, while dependent on the river levels, influenced by a complex interaction between soil, vegetation, topography and seasonal trends in rainfall and evapotranspiration. Based on field measurements, these components have been assessed in detail and evaluated regarding their function in the seasonal cycle of flooding and drying. A detailed analysis of soil and evapotranspiration conditions, as well as the interaction with vegetation and meteorological conditions, has been conducted using field and laboratory experiments. Sources, processes, flow directions and the fate of the floodwaters on both the river-fed seasonal flood plains and the rain-fed grasslands have been established. The results show that river spill is responsible for flooding these areas while no return flow occurs, and drying is caused by evapotranspiration. Rainfall can only cause temporary flooding in extreme events.

Citation Petersen, G. & Fohrer, N. (2010) Flooding and drying mechanisms of the seasonal Sudd flood plains along the Bahr el Jebel in southern Sudan. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(1), 4–16.     

Flood hazard and risk analysis in the southwest region of Bangladesh

Flood hazard and risk assessment was conducted to identify the priority areas in the southwest region of Bangladesh for flood mitigation. Simulation of flood flow through the Gorai and Arial Khan river system and its floodplains was done by using a hydrodynamic model. After model calibration and verification, the model was used to simulate the flood flow of 100‐year return period for a duration of four months. The maximum flooding depths at different locations in the rivers and floodplains were determined. The process in determining long flooding durations at every grid point in the hydrodynamic model is laborious and time‐consuming. Therefore the flood durations were determined by using satellite images of the observed flood in 1988, which has a return period close to 100 years. Flood hazard assessment was done considering flooding depth and duration. By dividing the study area into smaller land units for hazard assessment, the hazard index and the hazard factor for each land unit for depth and duration of flooding were determined. From the hazard factors of the land units, a flood hazard map, which indicates the locations of different categories of hazard zones, was developed. It was found that 54% of the study area was in the medium hazard zone, 26% in the higher hazard zone and 20% in the lower hazard zone. Due to lack of sufficient flood damage data, flood damage vulnerability is simply considered proportional to population density. The flood risk factor of each land unit was determined as the product of the flood hazard factor and the vulnerability factor. Knowing the flood risk factors for the land units, a flood risk map was developed based on the risk factors. These maps are very useful for the inhabitants and floodplain management authorities to minimize flood damage and loss of human lives. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

鄱阳湖水利枢纽工程对鄱阳湖水文水动力影响的模拟

水流情势变化是河湖生态系统演变最主要的驱动力,拟建的鄱阳湖水利枢纽工程对鄱阳湖水文水动力会产生何种影响是一个值得深入研究的问题.本研究基于EFDC模型构建了鄱阳湖水动力的二维模型,并按照规划中的鄱阳湖水利枢纽工程调度方案,通过丰平枯典型年份的情景模拟,探讨了鄱阳湖水利枢纽工程运行调度方案对湖泊水文水动力的可能影响.模拟结果表明:不同情景年型鄱阳湖水利枢纽工程低枯水位生态调节期(12月1日至3月底4月初)中11 m控制水位对该时期湖泊平均水位的抬升程度明显,2010年(丰水年)11 m控制水位对枯水期湖泊平均水位的最大抬升为2.59 m,2000年(平水年)枯水期湖泊的平均水位最大抬升为2.68 m,而2004年(枯水年)枯水期湖泊的平均水位最大抬升为4.35 m.枯水期水位的抬升,使不同年型不同湖区的枯水期平均流速、最大流速和最小流速都有不同程度的减小,其中以入江河道为最,2000年和2010年枯水期平均流速降幅在44%以上,2004年(枯水年)枯水期的平均降速范围在50%以上,而对两大保护区的影响则较小.对流场格局的影响方面,主要表现在有枢纽时由于低枯水期的11 m水位控制,棠荫以北尤其是入江河道的流场与无枢纽时的流场表现出明显的不同;棠荫以南的湖区,当赣江中支和赣江南支的来水较大时,在棠荫附近及松门山以南的湖区会呈现出较大的水面.同时由于枯水期的水位抬升和流速减小,水利枢纽工程对湖泊换水周期的作用明显,不同年型的换水周期都受到不同程度的影响,2004年枢纽控水过程使控水期间的平均换水周期增加了5.6 d,影响程度达26.1%;模型模拟结果可以揭示在目前调度方案下,水利枢纽工程对鄱阳湖水文水动力的影响程度,为进一步定量分析鄱阳湖水利枢纽工程对湖泊水质和生态系统演化及其可能造成的影响提供必要的基础支撑.     

Validation of a full hydrodynamic model for large‐scale hydrologic modelling in the Amazon

A key aspect of large river basins partially neglected in large‐scale hydrological models is river hydrodynamics. Large‐scale hydrologic models normally simulate river hydrodynamics using simplified models that do not represent aspects such as backwater effects and flood inundation, key factors for some of the largest rivers of the world, such as the Amazon. In a previous paper, we have described a large‐scale hydrodynamic approach resultant from an improvement of the MGB‐IPH hydrological model. It uses full Saint Venant equations, a simple storage model for flood inundation and GIS‐based algorithms to extract model parameters from digital elevation models. In the present paper, we evaluate this model in the Solimões River basin. Discharge results were validated using 18 stream gauges showing that the model is accurate. It represents the large delay and attenuation of flood waves in the Solimões basin, while simplified models, represented here by Muskingum Cunge, provide hydrographs are wrongly noisy and in advance. Validation against 35 stream gauges shows that the model is able to simulate observed water levels with accuracy, representing their amplitude of variation and timing. The model performs better in large rivers, and errors concentrate in small rivers possibly due to uncertainty in river geometry. The validation of flood extent results using remote sensing estimates also shows that the model accuracy is comparable to other flood inundation modelling studies. Results show that (i) river‐floodplain water exchange and storage, and (ii) backwater effects play an important role for the Amazon River basin hydrodynamics. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The application of two‐dimensional hydrodynamic models for underwater archaeological finds from the Vistula River in Warsaw,Poland

Low water levels occurring on the Warsaw section of the Vistula River during droughts in 2012 and 2015 stirred considerable interest by exposing parts of the riverbed. The river's low flow discharge created favourable conditions for archaeologists who, from the river's bottom, managed to salvage sculptures, architectural artefacts, and military accessories dating back to the middle of the 17th century. Literature shows that archaeological finds at the bottom of a major lowland river are unique and are attributed to very specific hydrological and geological conditions. Embankments and works meant to regulate the channel of the Vistula River in Warsaw narrowed the channel and accelerated the erosion of the river's bottom. A comparison of rating curves created between 1919 and 2015 shows that the river's bottom had lowered by 225 cm. The diameter of sediment particles that could be moved at maximum shear stress has been calculated using the Meyer–Peter and Muller formula. According to the calculated shear stress corresponding to the highest historical flood of 1844 particles smaller than 0.05 m were transported down the river, and it is true that artefacts of that size had not been collected at the site. Taking into consideration the very specific geological and hydrological conditions, we believe that finding so many 17th century artefacts with a well‐documented history at a site at the bottom of major lowland river with intensive channel processes is indeed unique. Additionally, it is the first time that results of hydrodynamic modelling have been successfully used for archaeological survey to define the critical shear stress and the smallest diameter of artefacts, which could remain stable on a river's bottom.     

鄱阳湖典型洪泛区地下水数值模拟研究

受地表河湖系统水情变化干扰,高度动态和异质性的洪泛区地下水文对河湖水资源、水污染以及生态环境功能等方面具有重要影响和贡献。鄱阳湖洪泛区湿地在长江中下游具有重要区位优势和研究特色,但变化环境下其水动力特征和水量交换情况等仍存在许多不确定性。本文以鄱阳湖典型洪泛区为研究区,采用地下水流二维数值模型,开展了洪泛区地表地下水转化作用与水量变化的模拟研究。结果表明,鄱阳湖季节性水位变化很大程度上决定了主湖区与周边地下水之间的动态补排模式,即洪泛区地下水补给湖泊主要发生在枯水和退水时期,而湖泊补给地下水主要发生在涨水和高洪水位时期。一般情况下,整个洪泛区地下水位与湖水位的年内变化态势基本一致,主湖区附近的地下水位年内变幅较大,而大部分洪泛区的地下水位变幅相对较小。北部地下水流速明显大于南部,主湖区附近地下水流速明显大于洪泛区,地下水流速基本小于1～2 m/d。水均衡分析发现,洪泛区地下水系统以接受降雨输入（52%）和主湖区补给（39%）为主,以地下水蒸发输出（72%）和向湖排泄（24%）为主,但补给主要发生在春、夏季,而排泄则发生在秋、冬季。地形地貌对洪泛区地下水位分布以及流速场演化具有主控作用,...     

鄱阳湖二维水动力和水质耦合数值模拟

针对大型通江湖泊水位变化剧烈,地形起伏多变,岸线复杂,湖泊内部窄小洪道与大面洲滩和洼地连接复杂,湖泊洲滩出露、淹没频繁交替等湖泊水情和地貌特征,基于二维浅水方程和对流扩散方程组构建了鄱阳湖二维水动力和水质耦合模拟模型.模型采用非结构网格有限体积法进行离散,以HLLC算法计算单元界面的水量、动量和物质输运通量.水陆边界通...     

Critical perspectives on the evaluation and optimization of complex numerical models of estuary hydrodynamics and sediment dynamics

Numerical hydrodynamic and sediment transport models provide a means of extending inferences from direct observation and for advancing our understanding of estuarine processes. However, their parametric complexity invites questions concerning the extent to which model output can be assessed with respect to data. This paper examines the basis for evaluating the performance of complex hydrodynamic and sediment transport models, with reference to a case study of a muddy meso‐tidal estuary. Sophisticated and computationally‐intensive models should be evaluated using robust objective functions, but conventional measures of fit and model efficiency invoke restrictive assumptions about the nature of the errors. Furthermore, they offer little insight into causes of poor performance. Optimization of tidal hydrodynamic models can usefully combine conventional performance measures with harmonic analysis of modelled shallow water tidal constituents that are diagnostic of the interactions between tidal propagation, bathymetry and bottom friction. Models with similar efficiencies can thus be distinguished and likely sources of error pinpointed. Hydrodynamic models have a predictive power that is rooted in a more‐or‐less complete representation of the physical processes and boundary conditions that are well‐constrained with respect to data. In contrast, fine sediment models rely on a less complete conceptualization of a broader set of processes and, crucially, have a parametric complexity that is unmatched by the quantity and quality of observational data. Their performance as measured by conventional objective functions is weaker and it is important to match the structural complexity of model errors with analyses that can localize the scales and times of poor performance. Wavelet analysis is potentially useful here as a means of identifying aspects of the model that need improvement. The context in which such models are deployed is also important. Used heuristically, what might otherwise be dismissed as weak models can still provide mechanistic support for empirically‐derived inferences concerning specific aspects of system behaviour. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

大地电磁资料精细处理和二维反演解释技术研究(六)——交错模型的大地电磁二维反演

交错模型指的是由几组走向不同的线性构造（近似二维）在空间（纵向、横向）上组合而成的模型.对于电性结构,交错模型表现为纵向或横向上的构造存在电性主轴方位的变化.从构造维性的角度来看,交错模型是一种由二维模型组合而成的特殊的三维模型,直接对其进行大地电磁二维反演,不易获得可靠的反演结果.本文针对交错模型的特点,提出分频段-分区段反演方案.该方案首先需要借助于阻抗张量成像技术,在频率域确定组成交错模型的各线性构造的电性主轴,然后,针对不同的频段、区段,选择对应电性主轴的数据进行反演,通过初始模型的构建将不同电性主轴方位的反演结果对接起来.本文通过三维理论模型的研究,系统展示了分频段-分区段反演的全过程,归纳得到：在分频段反演时先做低频段反演,在分区段反演时先做二维性更不显著一侧的反演.最后,本文将这一技术用于郯庐断裂带中南段一条实测剖面的反演中,其结果与常规二维反演结果相比较,深部的信息更为丰富,且与其他已有地质、地球物理结果的可对比性更好,表明在构造复杂地区,大地电磁分频段-分区段二维反演具有较高的模型分辨率和可靠性.     

Assessing flood risk in Baiyangdian Lake area in a changing climate using an integrated hydrological-hydrodynamic modelling

ABSTRACT

Flood-risk is affected by both climatic and anthropogenic factors. In this study, we assess changes in flood risk induced by a combination of climate change and flood prevention sets in the Baiyangdian (BYD) Lake area of China. Extreme storm events are analysed by the bias-corrected climate data from global climate models. A hydrological model is implemented and integrated with a hydrodynamic model to assess flood risk under three scenarios. The streamflow into the BYD was validated against historical flash-flood events. The results indicate that the changing climate increased extreme precipitation, upstream total inflow and the flood risk at the core region of Xiong’an New Area (XNA), the newly announced special economic zone in the BYD area. However, flood prevention measures can effectively mitigate the climatic effect. The research highlights the severe flash-flood risk at BYD and demonstrates the urgent need for a climate-resilient plan for XNA.     

Insights from numerical modeling on the hydrodynamics of non-radial flow in faulted media

The objective of this work is to explore the use of flow dimensions as a tool for characterizing hydraulic conditions in faulted media. Transient flow is numerically simulated in synthetic vertically-faulted reservoirs. Analysis of the obtained time series following the Generalized Radial Flow (GRF) model displays combined radial and fractional signals with a flow dimension n=1.5$n=1.5$. Investigating the transient geometry of the frontal equipotential surface shows that fractional flow occurrence is due to abnormal fault diffusion as a consequence of water supply from the matrix under specific conditions. An original hydrodynamical explanation for fractional flow in vertically faulted media is suggested, along with a reinterpretation of the bilinear regime. It is shown that the GRF theory remains valid in such discontinuum as the fundamental relationship between n and the cross-flow area is satisfied. These results provide insights in the use of the flow dimension as a hydraulic diagnostic tool in faulted media.     

Lake flooding sensitivity to the relative timing of peak flows between upstream and downstream waterways: A case study of Poyang Lake,China

The relative timing of peak flows (RTPF) from tributaries has significant influence on flood occurrence at their confluence. This study is aimed at (1) analysing the characteristics of the RTPF of the 5 recharging rivers in the Poyang Lake catchment and the Yangtze River during the period of 1960–2012, and (2) employing a physically‐based hydrodynamic model (MIKE 21) to quantify the effects of RTPF on flood behaviour in the Poyang Lake (the largest freshwater lake in China). The results show that short RTPF, or close occurrence of peak flows, triggers flood in the Poyang Lake more easily. More than 75% of total flood events in the study period occurred with RTPF less than 60 days, and more than 55% of the events occurred with RTPF less than 30 days. The hydrodynamic simulation revealed that the date of flood peak in the lake was postponed by 4–7 days and the flood stage raised by 0.69 m because of the delay of peak flows from the upstream rivers/tributaries. On the other hand, earlier start of the Yangtze River peak flow led to flood peak in the lake 6–13 days earlier. Additionally, the duration of high lake water levels was extended by 9–12 days when the RTPF shortened, and the flood hydrograph of the Poyang Lake changed from a flat to a flashy type. These results indicate that an enlarged RTPF between the upstream rivers and the Yangtze River could be an effective way to prevent flood disasters in the Poyang Lake, a method apparently being adopted in the operation of the Three Gorges Dam. The RTPF should be considered and integrated when developing flood prevention and management plans in the Poyang Lake, as well as in other similar regions in the world.     

A review of flood impact assessment approaches for underground infrastructures in urban areas: a focus on transport systems

ABSTRACT

Flooding events can produce significant disturbances in underground transport systems within urban areas and lead to economic and socioenvironmental well-known consequences, which can be worsened by variations in the occurrence of weather and climate extremes. A better comprehension of these impacts and their conditions is consequently needed. Hence, this paper presents a state-of-the-art literature review on flood impact assessment in “metro” systems, analysing their purposes and their shortcomings. This document shows the adaptation measures dealing with specific classes of pluvial flood damages, besides identifying prospective paths towards the application of suitable actions facing actual and projected hazards in metro systems worldwide.     

Reconstructing historic Glacial Lake Outburst Floods through numerical modelling and geomorphological assessment: Extreme events in the Himalaya

Recession of high‐mountain glaciers in response to climatic change frequently results in the development of moraine‐dammed glacial lakes. Moraine dam failure is often accompanied by the release of large volumes of water and sediment, termed a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF). Chukhung Glacier is a small (~3 km²) receding valley glacier in Mt. Everest (Sagarmatha) National Park, Nepal. Unlike many Himalayan glaciers, which possess a thick mantle of supraglacial debris, its surface is relatively clean. The glacier terminus has receded 1.3 km from its maximum Holocene position, and in doing so provided the space for an ice‐contact moraine‐dammed lake to develop. The lake had a maximum volume of 5.5 × 10⁵ m³ and drained as a result of breaching of the terminal moraine. An estimated 1.3 × 10⁵ m³ of material was removed from the terminal moraine during breach development. Numerical dam‐breach modelling, implemented within a Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) framework, was used to investigate a range of moraine‐dam failure scenarios. Reconstructed outflow peak discharges, including failure via overtopping and piping mechanisms, are in the range 146–2200 m³ s^‐1. Results from two‐dimensional hydrodynamic GLOF modelling indicate that maximum local flow depths may have exceeded 9 m, with maximum flow velocities exceeding 20 m s^‐1 within 700 m of the breach. The floodwaters mobilised a significant amount of material, sourced mostly from the expanding breach, forming a 300 m long and 100 m wide debris fan originating at the breach exit. moraine‐dam. These results also suggest that inundation of the entire floodplain may have been achieved within ten minutes of initial breach development, suggesting that debris fan development was rapid. We discuss the key glaciological and geomorphological factors that have determined the evolution of a hazardous moraine‐dammed lake complex and the subsequent generation of a GLOF and its geomorphological impact. © 2014 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Investigating the influence of minor hydraulic structures on modeling flood events in lowland areas

Flood inundation models have been recognized to be a valuable tool to reproduce flow dynamics in a given area and support decision‐making processes on flood management measures. In many cases, in the simulation of flood events, only the main river channel and the associated structures are represented within the model. However, during flood events involving lowland areas, the minor drainage network – and the associated hydraulic structures – may have an important role in conveying flow and determining which areas will be flooded. The objective of this study is to investigate whether – and to what extent – small hydraulic structures in drainage networks have an influence in flooding on lowland areas. The case study for this research is the 1990 flood event which occurred in the lowland plain of the Reno River, in Northern Italy. The study area is mainly used for agricultural purposes and has a drainage system with several small bridges and culverts. The influence of the minor hydraulic structures on flood dynamics was analyzed through a combined use of one‐dimensional (1D) and two‐dimensional (2D) hydraulic models. First, a number of detailed and simplified approaches to represent hydraulic structures in the computational grids were analyzed by means of the HECRAS 1D model. Second, these approaches were implemented and tested in several 2D simulations of the flood event. The simulated inundation extents and flood levels were then compared with the observed data and with each other. The analysis of results showed that simplified schematizations were sufficient to obtain good model predictions of peak inundation extent and flood levels, at least for the present case study. Moreover, the influence of the structures on the peak flood inundation extent and flood levels was found to be limited, whereas it showed to be more significant during the drainage phase of the flood. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.