地震统计力学—几个非线性地震模型的相互关系及其物理含义

近年来地震统计力学研究的进展已经使我们有可能以一种简洁的方式将一些非线性地震模型物理地联系起来,并从地震学角度阐明这些模型的意义和限度。本文结合逾渗模型、热力学弹性回跳模型及弹簧滑块模型,系统地评述了这方面研究的进展。     

洛阳地震台数字记录的台湾省地震误差分析

结合洛阳地质构造背景,分析了2000年1月～2006年10月洛阳地震台记录到的台湾省地震的P波干扰因素及识别方法,影区地震、深源震的S波(或LG波)特征,采用中国地震台网中心确定的震级与洛阳地震台测定的复核、速报震级相比较,按震级段、年度分别统计分析,查找产生震级误差的原因,计算出台基校正系数,认为排除干扰、提高震相分析能力、用台基校正系数修正Ms计算公式,是减小震级误差的有效方法.     

用小波法研究台湾省两次7.6级大震前后仑坪台的地磁变化

用小波法分析了台湾省两次Ms 7．6大震(1986年花莲大震和1999年集集大震)前后仑坪台的地磁变化。从小波分析得出的“日变幅差”变化看,两次大地震前一个月内都有异常变化,花莲地震前出现负异常,集集地震前出现正异常。     

Retrospective forecasting test of a statistical physics model for earthquakes in Sichuan-Yunnan region

Pattern informatics (PI) model is one of the recently developed predictive models of earthquake phys- ics based on the statistical mechanics of complex systems. In this paper, retrospective forecast test of the PI model was conducted for the earthquakes in Sichuan-Yunnan region since 1988, exploring the possibility to apply this model to the estimation of time-dependent seismic hazard in continental China. Regional earthquake catalogue down to ML3.0 from 1970 to 2007 was used. The ‘target magnitude’ for the forecast test was MS5.5. Fifteen-year long ‘sliding time window’ was used in the PI calculation, with ‘anomaly training time window’ being 5 years and ‘forecast time window’ being 5 years, respectively. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) test was conducted for the evaluation of the forecast result, showing that the PI forecast outperforms not only random guess but also the simple number counting approach based on the clustering hypothesis of earthquakes (the RI forecast). If the ‘forecast time window’ was shortened to 3 years and 1 year, respectively, the forecast capability of the PI model de- creased significantly, albeit outperformed random forecast. For the one year ‘forecast time window’, the PI result was almost comparable to the RI result, indicating that clustering properties play a more important role at this time scale.     

Partial breaking of a mature seismic gap: The 1987 earthquakes in New Britain

To better understand the mechanics of subduction and the process of breaking a mature seismic gap, we study seismic activity along the western New Britain subduction segment (147°E–151°E, 4°S–8°S) through earthquakes withm _b 5.0 in the outer-rise, the upper area of subducting slab and at intermediate depths to 250 km, from January 1964 to December 1990. The segment last broke fully in large earthquakes of December, 28, 1945 (M _s =7.9) and May 6, 1947 (M _s =7.7.), and its higher seismic potential has been recognized byMcCann et al., (1979). Recently the segment broke partially in two smaller events of February, 8, 1987 (M _s =7.4) and October 16, 1987 (M _s =7.4), leaving still unbroken areas.We observe from focal mechanisms that the outer-rise along the whole segment was under pronounced compression from the late 60's to at least October 1987 (with exception of the tensional earthquake of December 11, 1985), signifying the mature stage of the earthquake cycle. Simultaneously the slab at intermediate depths below 40 km was under tension before the earthquake of October 16, 1987. That event, with a smooth rupture lasting 32 sec, rupture velocity of 2.0 km/sec, extent of approximately 70 km and moment of 1.2×10²⁷ dyne-cm, did not change significantly the compressive state of stress in the outer-rise of that segment. The earthquake did not fill the gap completely and this segment is still capable of rupturing either in an earthquake which would fill the gap between the 1987 and 1971 events, or in a larger magnitude event (M _s =7.7–7.9), comparable to earthquakes observed in that segment in 1906, 1945 and 1947.     

华北地区诱发地震预报能力统计模拟分析研究

用诱发地震的方法研究了1970年1月1日至1998年12月31日华北地区发生的A－F－B震的关系，以及诱发地震的空间分布特征。用统计模拟的检验方法分析了诱发地震的预报能力，结果表明诱发地震发生后在3年内200km范围内发生ML5.9级以上地震的概率为32％，大于将预报随机化计算的平均随机报准率与3倍均方差之和，认为在应用本研究方法选用的参数时，诱发地震含有地震前兆信息，有一定的预报能力。     

Study on the transverse structures across Taiwan Strait

The mountain ranges are almost NE- or NNE-trending in mainland and Taiwan island across the strait. But a number of correspondent transverse structures across Taiwan Strait have been identified on the basis of morphology, surface structure, deep seismic survey and gravity field etc. Moreover, it is inferred from the square or/and rectangular shape of the isoseist maps of 8 M≥ 6 earthquakes occurring in the western foothill plain of Taiwan that there is an apparent segmentation of the Taiwan Island along the N-S orientation. This has been verified from the GPS’s results of the ground motions measured during the Chi-Chi earthquake in 1999. As a matter of fact, the transverse structures within the Taiwan Island could be correlated with more salient NW- and EW-trending structures in the mainland of Fujian than in Taiwan. The investigation of the transverse structures across Taiwan Strait is conducive to realizing the geology within the strait. Hence, the tectonic sketch map of the strait as well as mainland and island drawn in this context shows NW- and EW-trending structures for the study area.     

通过地震编目分析陕西省地震分布

简要介绍陕西省地震编目工作的发展历史,并通过地震编目分析1970年以来陕西省地震的分布情况.结果显示,省内地震主要分布在陕西关中及陕南地区;随着煤矿的开采,近几年陕北地区矿震数量呈现增加陕西态势.     

Research status of earthquake forecasting in hydraulicfracturing induced earthquakes

In the new types of industrial activities including unconventional energy extraction associated with shale gas and hot dry rock, gas reservoir operations, CO2 geological storage, undergoing research on induced earthquake forecasting has become one of the forward positions of current seismology. As for the intense actual demand, the immature research on induced earthquake forecasting has already been applied in pre-assessment of site safety and seismic hazard and risk management. This work will review systematically recent advances in earthquake forecasting induced by hydraulic fracturing during industrial production from four aspects: earthquake occurrence probability, maximum expected magnitude forecasting, seismic risk analysis for engineering and social applications and key scientific problems. In terms of earthquake occurrence probability, we introduce statistical forecasting models such as an improved ETAS and non-stationary ETAS and physical forecasting models such as Seismogenic Index (SI) and hydro-mechanism nucleation. Research on maximum expected magnitude forecasting has experienced four stages of linear relationship with net injection volume of fluid, power exponential relationship and physical forecasting regarding fault parameters. For seismic risk analysis, we focus on probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and quantitative geological susceptibility model. Furthermore, this review is extended to key scientific problems that contain obtaining accurate fault scale and environmental stress state of reservoir, critical physical process of runaway rupture, complex mechanism of fault activation as well as physical mechanism and modeling of trailing effect. This work in understanding induced earthquake forecasting may contribute to unconventional energy development and production, seismic hazard mitigation, emergency management and scientific research as a reference.     

Characteristics of strong ground motion during the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake (Taiwan) and large aftershocks: comparison with the previously established models

In the Taiwan region, the empirical spectral models for estimating ground motion parameters were obtained recently on the basis of recordings of small to moderate (5.0≤M_L≤6.5) earthquakes. A large collection of acceleration records from the recent M_L 7.3 (M_W 7.6) Chi-Chi earthquake (20 September, 1999) makes it possible to test the applicability of the established relationships in the case of larger events. The comparison of ground motion parameters (peak accelerations and response spectra), which were calculated using the stochastic approach based on the modeled Fourier amplitude spectra, and the observed data demonstrates that the models may be successfully used for ground motion prediction for earthquakes of magnitudes up to M_L=6.8–7.0 and hypocentral depth more than 10 km. To satisfy to the peculiarities of ground motion during shallow (depth less than 10 km) and larger (M_L>7.0) events, the models were revised.     

华北北部地区地震与太阳活动关系的统计研究

使用时间序列分析和相关分析方法,分析华北北部地区1970～2006年地震与太阳黑子、耀斑的相关性,得到的结论是,太阳活动与以中小地震为主的地震样本不存在统计关系。这个结论与以往的研究不同,本文对此做了初步分析。     

朝鲜史料记载的中国地震

整理和讨论了朝鲜王朝时期(1392 ～1910年)主要历史文献《朝鲜王朝实录》、《承政院日记》和《日省录》中有关中国地震的史料.新增1483年12月30日(明成化十九年十二月初一)北京地震和1810年黑龙江省宁古塔(宁安)地震.提出清康熙二十四年乙丑春(1685年)北京顺义地震的佐证.     

Multifractal characteristics of spatiotemporal distribution of earthquakes in intraplate and interplate regions

Introduction For a long time, the seismologists have paid great attentions to the research on the spatio- temporal distribution of earthquake intensity, which provide us with significant information for the researches on crustal stress variation, tectonic activity and earthquake risk prediction in a certain spatio-temporal region. The existing results have shown consistently that the intensity of earth- quakes is characterized by non-stability, non-linearity in temporal domain and non-uniformi…     

High magnetic susceptibility produced by thermal decomposition of core samples from the Chelungpu fault in Taiwan

We carried out thermomagnetic susceptibility analyses of fault rocks from core samples from Hole B of the Taiwan Chelungpu Fault Drilling Project (TCDP) to investigate the cause of high magnetic susceptibilities in the fault core. Test samples were thermally and mechanically treated by heating to different maximum temperatures of up to 900 °C and by high-velocity frictional tests before magnetic analyses. Thermomagnetic susceptibility analyses of natural fault rocks revealed that magnetization increased at maximum heating temperatures above 400 °C in the heating cycle, and showed three step increases, at 600 to 550 °C and at 300 °C during the cooling cycle. These behaviors are consistent with the presence of pyrite, siderite and chlorite, suggesting that TCDP gouge originally included these minerals, which contributed to the generation the magnetic susceptibility by thermomechanical reactions. The change in magnetic susceptibility due to heating of siderite was 20 times that obtained by heating pyrite and chlorite, so that only a small fraction of siderite decomposition is enough to cause the slight increase of the susceptibility observed in the fault core. Color measurement results indicate that thermal decomposition by frictional heating took place under low-oxygen conditions at depth, which prevented the minerals from oxidizing to reddish hematite. This finding supports the inference that a mechanically driven chemical reaction partly accounts for the high magnetic susceptibility. A kinetic model analysis confirmed that frictional heating can cause thermal decomposition of siderite and pyrite. Our results show that decomposition of pyrite to pyrrhotite, siderite and, to some extent, chlorite to magnetite is the probable mechanism explaining the magnetic anomaly within the Chelungpu fault zone.     

大同及邻区地震网格化相关分析及预测意义

利用华北地区1970～2009年的ML3.0以上地震资料,用相关分析方法,研究了大同及邻区的中小地震空间分布模式及其在该区中强地震前的异常情况.在确定空间范围、时间窗和时间滑动步长后,将地震的空间分布进行网格化再转化为序列;对一个时段内及其稍长时段内的地震空间分布进行序列化,计算两个序列的相关系数并分析相关系数在中强地震前的变化.结果表明,在以1989年大同-阳高5.9级地震震中为中心,取经向和纬向均为1.6°的矩形区域,时段长为3600天,稍长时段取3700天,滑动步长取100天的情况下,1980～2009年的相关系数的时间序列值基本在0.94 ～ 1.00之间波动,但在1989年山西大同-阳高5.9级、1991年山西大同5.8级与1999年山西浑源5.6级地震前2年均出现过相关系数小于0.94的异常现象,表明地震的空间分布出现明显变化.分析相关系数异常对于中强地震的前兆意义,得到以下3点认识:①大同及周边地区的中强地震前,可将中小地震空间分布模式发生的显著变化,作为2年尺度的震兆异常,为该区中期地震预测提供时间的参考;②考虑到研究区的限定范围为震中周边0.8°以内,地震时空分布的相关分析结果对于地震地点的预测也是有意义的;③相关分析可以为识别此类地震空间分布模式的异常变化提供帮助.     

Some isotopic and hydrological changes associated with the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake, Taiwan

Abstract   The changes in the isotopic composition of, and the groundwater level in, the Choshui River alluvial fan near the ruptured Chelungpu Fault during and following the 1999 ( M _w = 7.5) Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan are reported. Three aspects of the hydrological changes are noticed. First, following the Chi-Chi earthquake, the lower aquifers beneath the Choshui River fan showed a significant shift in isotopic composition towards that of the surface water in the Choshui River, suggesting enhanced exchanges of water between the river and the groundwater. Second, in some wells, water levels and isotopic compositions in different aquifers converged to the same respective values during the Chi-Chi earthquake, suggesting coseismic exchanges of water between the different aquifers, which implies enhanced permeability due perhaps to the fracturing and breaching of aquitards between the aquifers. Third, the pattern of the coseismic water-level response is distinctly different from that of the shift in the isotopic composition, suggesting that they were produced by different mechanisms.     

闽粤海外历史地震与台湾海峡现今强震活动图像

闽粤两省强烈地震多发生在沿海地区,且福建南日岛至广东南澳一线的泉州－汕头地震带地震活动尤为突出。历史上东南沿海地震带曾发生过４次７级以上大地震,而其中３次都发生在泉－汕段海域,继华南地区本世纪著名的１９１８年广东南澳７．３级地震后,１９９４年９月１６日台湾海峡南部又发生７．３级强震,这在经济发达,人口稠密的闽粤沿海地区引起了极大关注。本文通过历史强震活动资料,分析闽粤沿海与台湾海峡强震在时间进程,     

Static stress changes as a triggering mechanism of a shallow earthquake: case study of the 1999 Chi-Chi (Taiwan) earthquake

The role of static stress changes in triggering an earthquake has long been debated in the fields of geophysics and fault mechanics. Valuable data sets for the study of static triggering were provided within the 1-year period following the devastating 1999 Chi-Chi (Taiwan) earthquake (M_W=7.6), during which more than 20,000 aftershocks occurred. In this study, stress waves generated by the Chi-Chi earthquake were calculated using a source rupture model in conjunction with a layered elastic model. Static (permanent) stress changes were extracted from the long-period offsets in the stressgrams. Correlations between the calculated stress changes and seismicity were analyzed at different depths and over varying time intervals to ascertain the impact effects of stress changes on triggering aftershocks. Correlations between prior seismicity rates and static stress changes imposed by the Chi-Chi event were low, while correlations between late seismicity rates and static stress changes were much higher. This indicates that static stress changes did affect the occurrence of the Chi-Chi aftershock sequence. The percentage of early aftershocks at shallow depths (0-10 km) in static stress-enhanced areas within 2 weeks of the main shock was high but decreased considerably at greater depths (>10 km) and over longer time periods. It is concluded that static stress changes at depths of 0-10 km played a major role in triggering crustal aftershocks, especially those that occurred within 2 weeks of the main shock. In the deeper crust, static stress changes may have been modified by viscous flow, and at later times, perturbed by earlier, larger aftershocks. Although the correlations between seismicity rate changes and static stress changes are imperfect, a region that was anti-triggered is detected when these two results are compared. Static stress changes are presumably not the only aftershock triggering mechanism, but they definitively play a major role in triggering shallow aftershocks.     

Grouping occurrences being the fundamental feature of the strong earthquakes in Chinese mainland

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Seismic loss and damage in light-frame wood buildings from sequences of induced earthquakes

Activities related to oil and gas production, especially deep disposal of wastewater, have led to sequences of induced earthquakes in the central United States. This study aims to quantify damage to and seismic losses for light-frame wood buildings when subjected to sequences of induced, small to moderate magnitude, events. To conduct this investigation, one- and two-story multifamily wood frame buildings are designed, and their seismic response dynamically simulated using three-dimensional nonlinear models, subjected to ground motion sequences recorded in induced events. Damage is quantified through seismic losses, which are estimated using the FEMA P-58 methodology. Results show that at levels of shaking experienced in recent earthquakes, minor damage, consisting of cracking of interior finishes and nonstructural damage to plumbing and heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems, is expected, which is consistent with observed damage in these events. The study also examines how expected losses and building fragility will accumulate and/or change over a sequence of earthquakes. Results indicate that damage quantified in terms of absorbed hysteretic energy tended to accumulate over the sequences; this damage corresponds to elongation or widening of cracks. However, fragility is not significantly altered by damage in a preceding event, meaning structures are not becoming more vulnerable due to existing damage. In addition, sequences of events do not change losses if the building is only repaired once at the end of the sequence, as the worsening of damage does not alter repair actions. If repairs are conducted after each event, though, total seismic losses can increase greatly from the sequence.