Effect of modelling scale on the assessment of climate change impact on river runoff

Abstract

The effect of using two distributed hydrological models with different degrees of spatial aggregation on the assessment of climate change impact on river runoff was investigated. Analyses were conducted in the Narew River basin situated in northeast Poland using a global hydrological model (WaterGAP) and a catchment-scale hydrological model (SWAT). Climate change was represented in both models by projected changes in monthly temperature and precipitation between the period 2040–2069 and the baseline period, resulting from two general circulation models: IPSL-CM4 and MIROC3.2, both coupled with the SRES A2 emissions scenario. The degree of consistency between the global and the catchment model was very high for mean annual runoff, and medium for indicators of high and low runoff. It was observed that SWAT generally suggests changes of larger magnitude than WaterGAP for both climate models, but SWAT and WaterGAP were consistent as regards the direction of change in monthly runoff. The results indicate that a global model can be used in Central and Eastern European lowlands to identify hot-spots where a catchment-scale model should be applied to evaluate, e.g. the effectiveness of management options.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor F.F. Hattermann

Citation Piniewski, M., Voss, F., Bärlund, I., Okruszko, T., and Kundzewicz. Z.W., 2013. Effect of modelling scale on the assessment of climate change impact on river runoff. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (4), 737–754.     

Incorporating landscape depression heterogeneity into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using a probability distribution

Modelling the hydrology of North American Prairie watersheds is complicated because of the existence of numerous landscape depressions that vary in storage capacity. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a widely applied model for long‐term hydrological simulations in watersheds dominated by agricultural land uses. However, several studies show that the SWAT model has had limited success in handling prairie watersheds. In past works using SWAT, landscape depression storage heterogeneity has largely been neglected or lumped. In this study, a probability distributed model of depression storage is introduced into the SWAT model to better handle landscape storage heterogeneity. The work utilizes a probability density function to describe the spatial heterogeneity of the landscape depression storages that was developed from topographic characteristics. The integrated SWAT–PDLD model is tested using datasets for two prairie depression dominated watersheds in Canada: the Moose Jaw River watershed, Saskatchewan; and the Assiniboine River watershed, Saskatchewan. Simulation results were compared to observed streamflow using graphical and multiple statistical criterions. Representation of landscape depressions within SWAT using a probability distribution (SWAT–PDLD) provides improved estimations of streamflow for large prairie watersheds in comparison to results using a lumped, single storage approach. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Model estimates of runoff in the closed,semiarid Estancia basin,central New Mexico,USA

Abstract

The 5000 km² topographically closed Estancia basin in central New Mexico has been the focus of several palaeoclimatic studies based on changes in the level of late Pleistocene Lake Estancia. A large, unknown volume of surface runoff and groundwater from adjacent mountains contributed to the hydrological balance during highstands and lowstands. The US Department of Agriculture hydrological model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) and the US Geological Survey groundwater flow model MODFLOW, with the LAK2 package, were used in this study to estimate runoff and water balance under present climate. A Geographic Information Systems (GIS) interface was used for SWAT, digitized data were applied for soils and vegetation, and limited streamflow data were used to obtain an approximate calibration for the model. Simulated streamflow is generally within 30% of observed values, and simulated runoff for the entire basin is about 8% of the annual inflow volume needed to support lowstands of the former Lake Estancia. Results from the combined models suggest application to other palaeoclimate investigations in semiarid lake basins.     

Impacts of land-use and climate changes on surface runoff in a tropical forest watershed (Brazil)

ABSTRACT

Surface runoff generation capacity can be modified by land-use and climate changes. Annual runoff volumes have been evaluated in a small watershed of tropical forest (Brazil), using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Firstly, the accuracy of SWAT in runoff predictions has been assessed by default input parameters and improved by automatic calibration, using 20-year observations. Then, the hydrological response under land uses (cropland, pasture and deforested soil) alternative to tropical forest and climate change scenarios has been simulated. SWAT application has showed that, if forest was replaced by crops or pasture, the watershed’s hydrological response would not significantly be affected. Conversely, a complete deforestation would slightly increase its runoff generation capacity. Under forecasted climate scenarios, the runoff generation capacity of the watershed will tend to decrease and will not be noticeably different among the representative concentration pathways. Pasture and bare soil will give the lowest and highest runoff coefficients, respectively.     

The Fill–Spill Hydrology of Prairie Wetland Complexes during Drought and Deluge

The fill–spill of surface depressions (wetlands) results in intermittent surface water connectivity between wetlands in the prairie wetland region of North America. Dynamic connectivity between wetlands results in dynamic contributing areas for runoff. However, the effect of fill–spill and the resultant variable or dynamic basin contributing area has largely been disregarded in the hydrological community. Long‐term field observations recorded at the St. Denis National Wildlife Area, Saskatchewan, allow fill–spill in the basin to be identified and quantified. Along with historical water‐level observations dating back to 1968, recent data collected for the basin include snow surveys, surface water survey and production of a light detection and ranging–derived digital elevation model. Data collection for the basin includes both wet and dry antecedent basin conditions during spring runoff events. A surface water survey at St. Denis in 2006 reveals a disconnected channel network during the spring freshet runoff event. Rather than 100% of the basin contributing runoff to the outlet, which most hydrological models assume, only approximately 39% of the basin contributes to the outlet. Anthropogenic features, such as culverts and roads, were found to influence the extent and spatial distribution of contributing areas in the basin. Historical pond depth records illustrate the effect of antecedent basin conditions on fill–spill and basin contributing area. A large pond at the outlet of the St. Denis basin, which only receives local runoff during dry years when upstream surface storage has not been satisfied, has pond runoff volumes that increase by a factor of 20 or more during wet years when upstream antecedent basin surface storage is satisfied and basin‐wide runoff contributes to the pond. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Topographic analysis for the prairie pothole region of Western Canada

The unique topography of the pothole region of the North American prairies creates challenges for properly determining basin contributing area. Numerous depressions or potholes within the landscape impound runoff. However, potholes can ‘fill‐spill’ resulting in surface water connections between the potholes. Surface water connectivity between potholes ultimately influences basin contributing area. Currently, automated methods, such as landscape analysis tools, treat depressions in the landscape as artifacts and simply fill the depressions to delineate a drainage basin. Using this method to calculate contributing area assumes that all surface storage has been satisfied (threshold) and the drainage basin will contribute 100% of its area for all runoff events. However, most runoff events in the prairie pothole region are pre‐threshold events that contribute only a portion of surface runoff to the outlet. These pre‐threshold events have surface storage that varies because of antecedent water levels and have a variable or dynamic potential to store further runoff in the basin. Government agencies have developed methodologies for determining pre‐threshold contributing areas, but these methodologies do not incorporate current technologies and, as a result, have limitations. We propose an automated method for determining contributing area that incorporates the fill‐spill of prairie potholes. The algorithm, which uses the D‐8 drainage direction method, automates a methodology for identifying and quantifying runoff contributing area. Any algorithm that determines pre‐threshold contributing area, must allow the DEM to be filled in an incremental manner. This will simulate increasing pond levels, and the resulting decrease in available storage in the basin, in response to runoff events. The SPILL algorithm is an iterative solution that increases the magnitude of input runoff events and records the decreasing change in available surface storage and the increase in contributing area until the storage threshold is reached and the contributing area reaches 100%. Through application of the algorithm on prairie pothole region basins, we test proposed conceptual curves that describe a hypothesized non‐linear relationship between decreasing potential storage in the landscape and contributing area. Results indicate that the proposed conceptual curves represent the relationship between potential surface storage and contributing area in the test basins very well. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multi-objective autocalibration of SWAT model for improved low flow performance for a small snowfed catchment

ABSTRACT

A reliable modelling framework needs to ensure that the model is simulating reality with limited uncertainty, thus enhancing its predictive ability. In the literature, hydrological model assessment using one or more metrics is reported to be inadequate when the river flow regime is required to be reproduced comprehensively. This research is aimed to: (a) calibrate the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) based on the concept of multi-objective optimization by applying the Borg multi-objective evolutionary algorithm (MOEA); (b) apply hydrological signatures as objective functions; and (c) adopt a multi-metric approach for model evaluation. The SWAT model was coupled with a relatively newer and powerful Borg MOEA. The inclusion of hydrological signatures as objective functions along with the conventional statistical functions assisted in improving the performance for low flows by 135% in terms of volume efficiency and 65% for flow time series simulation.     

Influence of landscape aggregation in modelling snow-cover ablation and snowmelt runoff in a sub-arctic mountainous environment

Abstract

Appropriate representation of landscape heterogeneity at small to medium scales is a central issue for hydrological modelling. Two main hydrological modelling approaches, deductive and inductive, are generally applied. Here, snow-cover ablation and basin snowmelt runoff are evaluated using a combined modelling approach that includes the incorporation of detailed process understanding along with information gained from observations of basin-wide streamflow phenomena. The study site is Granger Basin, a small sub-arctic basin in the mountains of the Yukon Territory, Canada. The analysis is based on the comparison between basin-aggregated and distributed landscape representations. Results show that the distributed model based on “hydrological response” landscape units best describes the observed magnitudes of both snow-cover ablation and basin runoff, whereas the aggregated approach fails to represent the differential snowmelt rates and to describe both runoff volumes and dynamics when discontinuous snowmelt events occur.     

Predicting phosphorus dynamics in complex terrains using a variable source area hydrology model

Phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural watersheds has long been a critical water quality problem, the control of which has been the focus of considerable research and investment. Preventing P loss depends on accurately representing the hydrological and chemical processes governing P mobilization and transport. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a watershed model commonly used to predict run‐off and non‐point source pollution transport. SWAT simulates run‐off employing either the curve number (CN) or the Green and Ampt methods, both assume infiltration‐excess run‐off, although shallow soils underlain by a restricting layer commonly generate saturation‐excess run‐off from variable source areas (VSA). In this study, we compared traditional SWAT with a re‐conceptualized version, SWAT‐VSA, that represents VSA hydrology, in a complex agricultural watershed in east central Pennsylvania. The objectives of this research were to provide further evidence of SWAT‐VSA's integrated and distributed predictive capabilities against measured surface run‐off and stream P loads and to highlight the model's ability to drive sub‐field management of P. Thus, we relied on a detailed field management database to parameterize the models. SWAT and SWAT‐VSA predicted discharge similarly well (daily Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies of 0.61 and 0.66, respectively), but SWAT‐VSA outperformed SWAT in predicting P export from the watershed. SWAT estimated lower P loss (0.0–0.25 kg ha^?1) from agricultural fields than SWAT‐VSA (0.0–1.0+ kg ha^?1), which also identified critical source areas – those areas generating large run‐off and P losses at the sub‐field level. These results support the use of SWAT‐VSA in predicting watershed‐scale P losses and identifying critical source areas of P loss in landscapes with VSA hydrology. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Climate models and hydrological parameter uncertainties in climate change impacts on monthly runoff and daily flow duration curve of a Mediterranean catchment

ABSTRACT

Climate models and hydrological parameter uncertainties were quantified and compared while assessing climate change impacts on monthly runoff and daily flow duration curve (FDC) in a Mediterranean catchment. Simulations of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model using an ensemble of behavioural parameter sets derived from the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method were approximated by feed-forward artificial neural networks (FF-NN). Then, outputs of climate models were used as inputs to the FF-NN models. Subsequently, projected changes in runoff and FDC were calculated and their associated uncertainty was partitioned into climate model and hydrological parameter uncertainties. Runoff and daily discharge of the Chiba catchment were expected to decrease in response to drier and warmer climatic conditions in the 2050s. For both hydrological indicators, uncertainty magnitude increased when moving from dry to wet periods. The decomposition of uncertainty demonstrated that climate model uncertainty dominated hydrological parameter uncertainty in wet periods, whereas in dry periods hydrological parametric uncertainty became more important.

Editor M.C. Acreman; Associate editor S. Kanae     

Predicting saturation‐excess runoff distribution with a lumped hillslope model: SWAT‐HS

Saturation‐excess runoff is the major runoff mechanism in humid well‐vegetated areas where infiltration rates often exceed rainfall intensity. Although the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is one of the most widely used models, it predicts runoff based mainly on soil and land use characteristics, and is implicitly an infiltration‐excess runoff type of model. Previous attempts to incorporate the saturation‐excess runoff mechanism in SWAT fell short due to the inability to distribute water from one hydrological response unit to another. This paper introduces a modified version of SWAT, referred to as SWAT‐Hillslope (SWAT‐HS). This modification improves the simulation of saturation‐excess runoff by redefining hydrological response units based on wetness classes and by introducing a surface aquifer with the ability to route interflow from “drier” to “wetter” wetness classes. Mathematically, the surface aquifer is a nonlinear reservoir that generates rapid subsurface stormflow as the water table in the surface aquifer rises. The SWAT‐HS model was tested in the Town Brook watershed in the upper reaches of the West Branch Delaware River in the Catskill region of New York, USA. SWAT‐HS predicted discharge well with a Nash‐Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.68 and 0.87 for daily and monthly time steps. Compared to the original SWAT model, SWAT‐HS predicted less surface runoff and groundwater flow and more lateral flow. The saturated areas predicted by SWAT‐HS were concentrated in locations with a high topographic index and were in agreement with field observations. With the incorporation of topographic characteristics and the addition of the surface aquifer, SWAT‐HS improved streamflow simulation and gave a good representation of saturated areas on the dates that measurements were available. SWAT‐HS is expected to improve water quality model predictions where the location of the surface runoff matters.     

A two-stage fuzzy-stochastic factorial analysis method for characterizing effects of uncertainties in hydrological modelling

ABSTRACT

In this study, a two-stage fuzzy-stochastic factorial analysis (TFFA) method is developed and applied to the Vakhsh watershed (upper reaches of Aral Sea basin, Central Asia) for daily streamflow simulation. TFFA has advantages in identifying the major parameters that have important individual and interactive effects on model outputs, as well as assessing multiple uncertainties resulting from randomness and vagueness characteristics of model parameters. The results reveal that (a) nine major parameters (from a total of 24) have significant effects on Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) simulation performance for the study watershed; and (b) snowmelt-related parameters (including snowfall temperature, threshold temperature for snowmelt and s nowmelt factor) and runoff curve number (CN2) are most sensitive parameters for the runoff generation. The results also show that the proposed TFFA method can help enhance the hydrological model’s capability for runoff simulation/prediction, particularly for in data-scarce and high-mountainous watersheds.     

Incorporating landscape depressions and tile drainages of a northern German lowland catchment into a semi‐distributed model

Hydrological models need to be adapted to specific hydrological characteristics of the catchment in which they are applied. In the lowland region of northern Germany, tile drains and depressions are prominent features of the landscape though are often neglected in hydrological modelling on the catchment scale. It is shown how these lowland features can be implemented into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). For obtaining the necessary input data, results from a GIS method to derive the location of artificial drainage areas have been used. Another GIS method has been developed to evaluate the spatial distribution and characteristics of landscape depressions. In the study catchment, 31% of the watershed area is artificially drained, which heavily influences groundwater processes. Landscape depressions are common over the 50‐km² study area and have considerable retention potential with an estimated surface area of 582 ha. It was the scope of this work to evaluate the extent by which these two processes affect model performance. Accordingly, three hypotheses have been formulated and tested through a stepwise incorporation of drainage and depression processes into an auto calibrated default setup: (1) integration of artificial drainage alone; (2) integration of depressions alone and (3) integration of both processes combined. The results show a strong improvement of model performance for including artificial drainage while the depression setup only induces a slight improvement. The incorporation of the two landscape characteristics combined led to an overall enhancement of model performance and the strongest improvement in r², root mean square error (RMSE) and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of all setups. In particular, summer rainfall events with high intensity, winter flows and the hydrograph's recession limbs are depicted more realistically. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Performance of WASMOD and SWAT on hydrological simulation in Yingluoxia watershed in northwest of China

Two hydrological models with different structures and spatial capabilities are selected to simulate the runoff and actual evapotranspiration (AET) in Yingluoxia watershed, the upper reaches of Heihe River basin in northwest of China, to validate their performances in simulating hydrological processes. They are calibrated against the observed runoff at the watershed outlet (Yingluoxia station) for the period from 1990 to 1996 and validated for the period from 1997 to 2000. Results show that in terms of the simulated hydrograph against observations and the two selected objective functions, the conceptual, lumped Water And Snow balance MODeling system (WASMOD) with simple model structure could give the same, even better results than the semi‐distributed Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with complex structure. Compared with other model applications to the watershed, simulation for monthly runoff made in this study seems better. With regard to AET, results calculated from both models are comparable as well. Both WASMOD and SWAT are proved to be suitable and satisfactory tools in simulating hydrological processes in the study area, although both of them have strengths and limitations in applications. WASMOD model may be one of the promising alternatives in hydrological modelling. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessment of the effectiveness of a multi-site stochastic weather generator on hydrological modelling in the Red Deer River watershed,Canada

ABSTRACT

To improve the convergence of multiple-site weather generators (SWGs) based on the brute force algorithm (MBFA), a genetic algorithm (GA) is proposed to search the overall optimal correlation matrix. Precipitation series from weather generators are used as input to the hydrological model, the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT), to generate runoff over the Red Deer watershed, Canada for further runoff analysis. The results indicate that the SWAT model using SWG-generated data accurately represents the mean monthly streamflow for most of the months. The multi-site generators were capable of better representing the monthly streamflow variability, which was notably underestimated by the single-site version. In terms of extreme flows, the proposed method reproduced the observed extreme flow with smaller bias than MBFA, while the single-site generator significantly underestimated the annual maximum flows due to its poor capability in addressing partial precipitation correlations.     

The role of climate change and human interventions in affecting watershed runoff responses

Identifying the role of the two main driving factors—climate change and human interventions—in influencing runoff processes is essential for sustainable water resources management. For this purpose, runoff regime change detection methods were used to divide the available hydroclimatic variables into a baseline and a disturbed period. We applied hydrological modelling and the climate elasticity of runoff method to determine the contribution of climate change and human interventions to changes in runoff. The hydrological model, SWAT, was calibrated during the baseline period and used to simulate the naturalized runoff pattern for the disturbed period. Significant changes in runoff in the study watershed were detected from 1982, suggesting that human interventions play a dominant role in influencing runoff. The combined effects of climate change and human interventions resulted in a 41.3 mm (23.9%) decrease in runoff during the disturbed period, contributing about 40% and 60% to the total runoff change, respectively. Furthermore, analysis of changes in land cover dynamics in the watershed over the past four decades supported these changes in runoff. Contrary to other decades, the discrepancy between naturalized and observed runoff was small in the 2010s, likely due to increased baseflow as a result of storage and/or release of excess water during the dry season. This study contributes to our understanding of how climate change and human interventions affect hydrological responses of watersheds, which is important for future sustainable water management and drought adaptation.     

东江流域典型子流域土地利用/覆被变化对地表径流影响

应用SWAT模型对东江上中下游典型流域的地表径流进行模拟,采用1977 - 1981年和1996-2000年胜前、顺天和九州三个出口控制站逐月实测径流资料进行模型校准和验证,确定模型的敏感性参数,采用相关系数R2和Nash-Suttclife模型效率系数ENS,对SWAT模型模拟结果进行评价,结果显示模拟精度较高,R2...     

Simulating streamflow in the Upper Halda Basin of southeastern Bangladesh using SWAT model

ABSTRACT

Most catchments in tropical regions are ungauged and data deficient, complicating the simulation of water quantity and quality. Yet, developing and testing hydrological models in data-poor regions is vital to support water management. Here, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to predict stream runoff in Halda Basin in Bangladesh. While the calibrated model’s performance was satisfactory (R² = 0.80, NSE = 0.71), the model was unable to track the extreme low flow peaks due to the temporal and spatial variability of rainfall which may not be fully captured by using data from one rainfall gauging station. Groundwater delay time, baseflow alpha factor and curve number were the most sensitive parameters influencing model performance. This study improves understanding of the key processes of a catchment in a data-poor, monsoon driven, small river basin and could serve as a baseline for scenario modelling for future water management and policy framework.     

Searching for similarity in topographic controls on carbon,nitrogen and phosphorus export from forested headwater catchments

Topography influences hydrological processes that in turn affect biogeochemical export to surface water on forested landscapes. The differences in long‐term average annual dissolved organic carbon (DOC), organic and inorganic nitrogen [NO₃^?‐N, dissolved organic nitrogen (DON)], and phosphorus (total dissolved phosphorus, TDP) export from catchments in the Algoma Highlands of Ontario, Canada, with similar climate, geology, forest and soil were established. Topographic indicators were designed to represent topographically regulated hydrological processes that influence nutrient export, including (1) hydrological storage potential (i.e. effects of topographic flats/depressions on water storage) and (2) hydrological flushing potential (i.e. effects of topographic slopes on potential for variable source area to expand and tap into previously untapped areas). Variations in NO₃^?‐N export among catchments could be explained by indicators representing both hydrological flushing potential (91%, p < 0.001) and hydrological storage potential (65%, p < 0.001), suggesting the importance of hydrological flushing in regulating NO₃^?‐N export as well as surface saturated areas in intercepting NO₃^?‐N‐loaded runoff. In contrast, hydrological storage potential explained the majority of variations among catchments in DON (69%, p < 0.001), DOC (94%, p < 0.001) and TDP (82%, p < 0.001) export. The lower explanatory power of DON (about 15% less) compared with that of DOC and TDP suggests another mechanism influencing N export, such as controls related to alternative fates of nitrogen (e.g. as gas). This study shows that simple topographic indicators can be used to track nutrient sources, sinks and their transport and export to surface water from catchments on forest landscapes. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sensitivity of hydrological models to uncertainty in rainfall input

Abstract

Different approaches used in hydrological modelling are compared in terms of the way each one takes the rainfall data into account. We examine the errors associated with accounting for rainfall variability, whether in hydrological modelling (distributed vs lumped models) or in computing catchment rainfall, as well as the impact of each approach on the representativeness of the parameters it uses. The database consists of 1859 rainfall events, distributed on 500 basins, located in the southeast of France with areas ranging from 6.2 to 2851 km². The study uses as reference the hydrographs computed by a distributed hydrological model from radar rainfall. This allows us to compare and to test the effects of various simplifications to the process when taking rainfall information (complete rain field vs sampled rainfall) and rainfall–runoff modelling (lumped vs distributed) into account. The results appear to show that, in general, the sampling effect can lead to errors in discharge at the outlet that are as great as, or even greater than, those one would get with a fully lumped approach. We found that small catchments are more sensitive to the uncertainties in catchment rainfall input generated by sampling rainfall data as seen through a raingauge network. Conversely, the larger catchments are more sensitive to uncertainties generated when the spatial variability of rainfall events is not taken into account. These uncertainties can be compensated for relatively easily by recalibrating the parameters of the hydrological model, although such recalibrations cause the parameter in question to completely lose physical meaning.

Citation Arnaud, P., Lavabre, J., Fouchier, C., Diss, S. & Javelle, P. (2011) Sensitivity of hydrological models to uncertainty of rainfall input. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(3), 397–410.