Rising and falling river flows: contrasting signals of climate change and glacier mass balance from the eastern and western Karakoram

Abstract

Field observations and geodetic measurements suggest that in the Karakoram Mountains, glaciers are either stable or have expanded since 1990, in sharp contrast to glacier retreats that are prevalently observed in the Himalayas and adjoining high-altitude terrains of central Asia. Decreased discharge in the rivers originating from this region is cited as a supporting evidence for this somewhat anomalous phenomenon. Here, we show that river discharge during the melting season of the glaciers in the eastern and western Karakoram, respectively, exhibits rising and falling trends. We have implemented a statistical procedure involving non-parametric tests combined with a benchmark smoothing technique that has proven to be a powerful method for separating the stochastic component from the trend component in a time series. Precipitation patterns determined from ERA-40 and GPCP data indicate that summer-monsoonal precipitation has increased over the Karakoram Mountains in recent decades. Increasing flows in June and July in the eastern Karakoram are due to an increase in summer-monsoonal precipitation. The rising trend of August discharge is due to an increase in the loss of glacier storage at an approximate average rate of 0.186–0.217 mm d^-1 year^-1 during the period 1973–2010. Moreover, this rate is higher than the rate of increase in monsoonal snowfall during the months of August and September. Therefore, most plausibly, glacier mass balance in the eastern Karakoram is negative. In the western Karakoram, river flows show declining trends for all summer months for the period 1966–2010, corresponding to a rate of increase of glacier storage by approximately 0.552–0.644 mm d^-1 year^-1, which is also higher than the rate of increase in summer-monsoonal precipitation. The gain of the cryospheric mass in the western Karakoram is in the form of increased thickness of the glaciers and perennial snowpacks instead of areal expansion. This investigation shows two contrasting patterns of trends of river flows that signify both negative and positive mass balance of the Karakoram glaciers. Trends of river flows are spatially and temporally integrated responses of a watershed to changing climate and thereby are important signals of the conditions of the cryospheric component of a watershed where it is highly significant. However, they cannot unequivocally provide indications of the state and fate of the glaciers in the complex hydrometeorological setting of the Karakoram. Extreme caution and care must be exercised in interpreting trends of river discharge in conjunction with climatic data.     

Impacts of climate change on the discharge and glacier mass balance of the different glacierized watersheds in the Tianshan Mountains,Central Asia

The Tianshan Mountains represent an important water source for the arid and semi‐arid regions of Central Asia. The discharge and glacier mass balance (GMB) in the Tianshan Mountains are sensitive to changes in climate. In this study, the changes in temperature, precipitation, and discharge of six glacierized watersheds of Tianshan Mountains were explored using non‐parametric tests and wavelet transforms during 1957–2004. On the basis of the statistical mechanics and maximum entropy principle model, the GMB at the watershed scale were reconstructed for the study period. The discharge and GMB responses to climate change were examined in different watersheds. The results showed that regional climate warming was obvious, especially after 1996. The warming trend increased gradually from east to west, and the increase in temperature was greater on the north slope than on the south slope. The changing trends in precipitation increased from eastern region to central region, and then, the trend decreased in the western region, although the value was higher than that in the eastern region. The discharge presented significant periods of 2.7–5.4 years and increased from east to west. Significant periodicity indicated that the discharge in the different watersheds exhibited obviously different patterns. The GMB losses were larger in south and east than in north. The large glaciers had more stable interannual variations in discharge, and large fluctuations in discharge will be observed as the glacier areas shrink. Precipitation was the dominant factor for discharge during the study period, although the influence of increasing temperatures on hydrological regimes should not be neglected in the long term. Systematic differences in discharge and the GMB in glacierized watersheds in response to climate change are apparent in the Tianshan Mountains.     

Impacts of climate change and human activities on surface runoff in the Dongjiang River basin of China

Observed rainfall and flow data from the Dongjiang River basin in humid southern China were used to investigate runoff changes during low‐flow and flooding periods and in annual flows over the past 45 years. We first applied the non‐parametric Mann–Kendall rank statistic method to analyze the change trend in precipitation, surface runoff and pan evaporation in those three periods. Findings showed that only the surface runoff in the low‐flow period increased significantly, which was due to a combination of increased precipitation and decreased pan evaporation. The Pettitt–Mann–Whitney statistical test results showed that 1973 and 1978 were the change points for the low‐flow period runoff in the Boluo sub‐catchment and in the Qilinzui sub‐catchment, respectively. Most importantly, we have developed a framework to separate the effects of climate change and human activities on the changes in surface runoff based on the back‐propagation artificial neural network (BP‐ANN) method from this research. Analyses from this study indicated that climate variabilities such as changes in precipitation and evaporation, and human activities such as reservoir operations, each accounted for about 50% of the runoff change in the low‐flow period in the study basin. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling the effects of spatial and temporal resolution of rainfall and basin model on extreme river discharge

Abstract

Important characteristics of an appropriate river basin model, intended to study the effect of climate change on basin response, are the spatial and temporal resolution of the model and the rainfall input. The effects of input and model resolution on extreme discharge of a large river basin are assessed to give some indication on appropriate resolutions. A simple stochastic rainfall model and a river basin model with uniform parameters and multiple rainfall input have been developed and applied to the River Meuse basin in northwestern Europe. The results show that the effect of model resolution on extreme river discharge is much greater than that of input resolution. The highest model resolution seems to be quite accurate in determining extreme discharge. Although the results should be interpreted with caution, they may give some indication of appropriate input and model resolutions for the determination of extreme discharge of a large river basin.     

Streamflow trends and climate linkages in the source region of the Yellow River,China

Much of the discussion on hydrological trends and variability in the source region of the Yellow River centres on the mean values of the mainstream flows. Changes in hydrological extremes in the mainstream as well as in the tributary flows are largely unexplored. Although decreasing water availability has been noted, the nature of those changes is less explored. This article investigates trends and variability in the hydrological regimes (both mean values and extreme events) and their links with the local climate in the source region of the Yellow River over the last 50 years (1959–2008). This large catchment is relatively undisturbed by anthropogenic influences such as abstraction and impoundments, enabling the characterization of widely natural, climate‐driven trends. A total of 27 hydrological variables were used as indicators for the analysis. Streamflow records from six major headwater catchments and climatic data from seven stations were studied. The trend results vary considerably from one river basin to another, and become more accentuated with longer time period. Overall, the source region of the Yellow River is characterized by an overall tendency towards decreasing water availability. Noteworthy are strong decreasing trends in the winter (dry season) monthly flows of January to March and September as well as in annual mean flow, annual 1‐, 3‐, 7‐, 30‐ and 90‐day maxima and minima flows for Maqu and Tangnag catchments over the period 1959–2008. The hydrological variables studied are closely related to precipitation in the wet season (June, July, August and September), indicating that the widespread decrease in wet season precipitation is expected to be associated with significant decrease in streamflow. To conclude, decreasing precipitation, particularly in the wet season, along with increasing temperature can be associated with pronounced decrease in water resources, posing a significant challenge to downstream water uses. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

River flow regime and snow cover of the Pamir Alay (Central Asia) in a changing climate

Abstract

The Vakhsh and Pyandj rivers, main tributaries of the Amu Darya River in the mountainous region of the Pamir Alay, play an important role in the water resources of the Aral Sea basin (Central Asia). In this region, the glaciers and snow cover significantly influence the water cycle and flow regime, which could be strongly modified by climate change. The present study, part of a project funded by the European Commission, analyses the hydrological situation in six benchmark basins covering areas of between 1800 and 8400 km², essentially located in Tajikistan, with a variety of topographical situations, precipitation amounts and glacierized areas. Four types of parameter are discussed: temperature, glaciation, snow cover and river flows. The study is based mainly on a long-time series that ended in the 1990s (with the collapse of the Soviet Union) and on field observations and data collection. In addition, a short, more recent period (May 2000 to May 2002) was examined to better understand the role of snow cover, using scarce monitored data and satellite information. The results confirm the overall homogeneous trend of temperature increase in the mountain range and its impacts on the surface water regime. Concerning the snow cover, significant differences are noted in the location, elevation, orientation and morphology of snow cover in the respective basins. The changes in the river flow regime are regulated by the combination of the snow cover dynamics and the increasing trend of the air temperature.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz     

Impacts of small cascaded hydropower plants on river discharge in a basin in Southern China

The run‐off volume altered by the construction of hydropower plants affects ecohydrological processes in catchments. Although the impacts of large hydropower plants have been well documented in the literature, few studies have been conducted on the impacts of small cascaded hydropower plants (SCHPs). To evaluate the impacts of SCHPs on river flow, we chose a representative basin affected by hydropower projects and, to a lesser degree, by other human activities, that is, the Qiuxiang River basin in Southern China. The observed river discharge and climate data during the period of 1958–2016 were investigated. The datasets were divided into a low‐impact period and a high‐impact period based on the number of SCHPs and the capacities of the reservoirs. The daily river discharge alteration was assessed by applying the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration. To separate the impact of the SCHPs on the local river discharge from that of climate‐related precipitation, the back‐propagation neural network was used to simulate the monthly average river discharge process. An abnormal result was found: Unlike large reservoirs in large watersheds, the SCHPs regulated the flows during the flood season but were not able to mitigate the droughts during the dry season due to their limited storage and the commonly occurring inappropriate interregulations of the SCHPs. The SCHPs also reduced the annual average river discharge in the research basin. The contribution of the SCHPs to the river discharge changes was 85.37%, much higher than the contributions of climate change (13.43%) and other human activities (1.20%). The results demonstrated that the impacts of the SCHPs were different from those of large dams and reservoirs that regulate floods and relieve droughts. It is necessary to raise the awareness of the impacts of these river barriers.     

Rapid expansion of glacial lakes caused by climate and glacier retreat in the Central Himalayas

Glacial lake outburst floods are among the most serious natural hazards in the Himalayas. Such floods are of high scientific and political importance because they exert trans‐boundary impacts on bordering countries. The preparation of an updated inventory of glacial lakes and the analysis of their evolution are an important first step in assessment of hazards from glacial lake outbursts. Here, we report the spatiotemporal developments of the glacial lakes in the Poiqu River basin, a trans‐boundary basin in the Central Himalayas, from 1976 to 2010 based on multi‐temporal Landsat images. Studied glacial lakes are classified as glacier‐fed lakes and non‐glacier‐fed lakes according to their hydrologic connection to glacial watersheds. A total of 119 glacial lakes larger than 0.01 km² with an overall surface area of 20.22 km² (±10.8%) were mapped in 2010, with glacier‐fed lakes being predominant in both number (69, 58.0%) and area (16.22 km², 80.2%). We found that lakes connected to glacial watersheds (glacier‐fed lakes) significantly expanded (122.1%) from 1976 to 2010, whereas lakes not connected to glacial watersheds (non‐glacier‐fed lakes) remained stable (+2.8%) during the same period. This contrast can be attributed to the impact of glaciers. Retreating glaciers not only supply meltwater to lakes but also leave space for them to expand. Compared with other regions of the Hindu Kush Himalayas (HKH), the lake area per glacier area in the Poiqu River basin was the highest. This observation might be attributed to the different climate regimes and glacier status along the HKH. The results presented in this study confirm the significant role of glacier retreat on the evolution of glacial lakes. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A joint analysis of river runoff and meteorological forcing in the Karakoram,upper Indus Basin

Satellite‐geodetic altimetry investigations in the Karakoram have indicated slight mass gain or loss of the glaciers during the early part of 21st century. Equivalent discharge in the upper Indus Basin due to these mass changes has been estimated at 5 to 10% of mean annual flow. However, satellite altimetry and geodetic glacier mass estimates in the extreme topography of the Karakoram have not yet been counter‐validated by hydrological analysis. Therefore, we present a first cross validation of three to five decades of river flow data from the three major watersheds in the Karakoram, with matching series of monthly precipitation, temperature, and evaporation provided by six atmospheric reanalysis products for 1979–2014. The analyses suggest that in most cases river flows have been increasing steadily from the end of the 1960s and 1970s to the middle of the 1990s and have stabilized or are in decline since then. Hunza watershed in Karakoram West shows consistently declining flows over the first half of the analysis period and stable flows during the second half for most of the summer melting season, suggesting mass accumulation. Rising river flows in the Shyok and Shigar watersheds, followed by stabilizing or slightly declining flows from 1995 onward, can be explained by consistently increasing precipitation during the first half of the analysis period, and successive stabilization or minor decline thereof. Flow data do not necessarily suggest considerable loss or gain of glacial mass in the Karakoram during the late 90s and early 2000s as suggested by satellite‐based altimetry studies.     

Responses of hydrological processes to climate change in the Yarlung Zangbo River basin

ABSTRACT

Climate change alters hydrological processes and results in more extreme hydrological events, e.g. flooding and drought, which threaten human livelihoods. In this study, the large-scale distributed variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model was used to simulate future hydrological processes in the Yarlung Zangbo River basin (YZRB), China, with a combination of the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, fifth phase) and MIROC5 (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, fifth version) datasets. The results indicate that the performance of the VIC model is suitable for the case study, and the variation in runoff is remarkably consistent with that of precipitation, which exhibits a decreasing trend for the period 2046–2060 and an increasing trend for 2086–2100. The seasonality of runoff is evident, and substantial increases are projected for spring runoff, which might result from the increase in precipitation as well as the increase in the warming-induced melting of snow, glaciers and frozen soil. Moreover, evapotranspiration exhibits an increase between 2006–2020 and 2046–2060 over the entire basin, and soil moisture decreases in upstream areas and increases in midstream and downstream areas. For 2086–2100, both evapotranspiration and soil moisture increase slightly in the upstream and midstream areas and decrease slightly in the downstream area. The findings of this study could provide references for runoff forecasting and ecological protection for similar studies in the future.     

Hydroclimatology of the Upper Madeira River basin: spatio-temporal variability and trends

Rising in the Andes, the Madeira River drains the southwestern part of the Amazon basin, which is characterized by high geographical, biological and climatic diversity. This study uses daily records to assess the spatio-temporal runoff variability in the Madeira sub-basins. Results show that inter-annual variability of both discharge and rainfall differs between Andean and lowland tributaries. High-flow discharge variability in the Andean tributaries and the Guaporé River is mostly related to sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial Pacific in austral summer, while tropical North Atlantic (TNA) SST modulates rainfall and discharge variability in the lowlands. There also is a downward trend in the low-flow discharge of the lowland tributaries which is not observed in the Andes. Because low-flow discharge values at most lowland stations are negatively related to the SST in the tropical North Atlantic, these trends could be explained by the warming of this ocean since the 1970s.

EDITOR A. Castellarin

ASSOCIATE EDITOR A. Viglione     

Sensitivity of hydrological variables to climate change in the Haihe River basin,China

Using the defined sensitivity index, the sensitivity of streamflow, evapotranspiration and soil moisture to climate change was investigated in four catchments in the Haihe River basin. Climate change contained three parts: annual precipitation and temperature change and the change of the percentage of precipitation in the flood season (P_f). With satisfying monthly streamflow simulation using the variable infiltration capacity model, the sensitivity was estimated by the change of simulated hydrological variables with hypothetical climatic scenarios and observed climatic data. The results indicated that (i) the sensitivity of streamflow would increase as precipitation or P_f increased but would decrease as temperature increased; (ii) the sensitivity of evapotranspiration and soil moisture would decrease as precipitation or temperature increased, but it to P_f varied in different catchments; and (iii) hydrological variables were more sensitive to precipitation, followed by P_f, and then temperature. The nonlinear response of streamflow, evapotranspiration and soil moisture to climate change could provide a reference for water resources planning and management under future climate change scenarios in the Haihe River basin. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact and uncertainties of climate change on the hydrology of the Mara River basin,Kenya/Tanzania

The impact and uncertainty of climate change on the hydrology of the Mara River basin (MRB) was assessed. Sixteen global circulation models (GCMs) were evaluated, and five were selected for the assessment of future climate scenarios in the basin. Observed rainfall and temperature data for the control period (1961–1990) were combined with expected GCMs output using the delta and direct statistical downscaling methods and three greenhouse gas emission scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1). Uncertainties of climate change were addressed through compare and contrast of results across diverse GCMs, future climate scenarios and the two downscaling methods. Both methods produced a relatively similar annual rainfall amount, but their monthly and daily pattern showed considerable differences. The relative advantages and disadvantages of implementing one method over the other were also explored. The hydrologic impact of climate change in the basin was assessed using Soil and Water Assessment Tool. The model was calibrated and validated with observed data in the control period with (Nash–Sutcliff efficiency, coefficient of determination) results of (calibration: 0.68, 0.69) and (validation: 0.43, 0.44) at Mara Mines. Results have shown a statistically significant increase in flow volume of the Mara River flow at Mara Mines for the year 2046–2065 and 2081–2100. With due attention to the limitations, findings of this study have a wider application for water resources sustainability analysis in the MRB in the face of uncertainties due to climate change. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Shift trend and step changes for runoff time series in the Shiyang River basin,northwest China

Shift trend and step changes were detected for runoff time series in the Shiyang River basin, one of the inland river basins in north‐west China. Annual runoff data from eight tributaries as well as both annual and monthly runoff from the mainstream from 1958 to 2003 were used. Seven statistical test methods were employed to identify the shift trends and step changes in the study. Mann–Kendall test, Spearman's Rho test, linear regression and Hurst exponent were used to detect past and future shift trends for runoff time series, while the distributed‐free CUSUM test, cumulative deviations and the Worsley likelihood ratio test were used to detect step changes for the same time series. Results showed that the annual runoff from Zamu, Huangyang and Gulang rivers, as well as both annual and monthly runoff from the mainstream, show statistically significant decreasing trends. Future tendency of runoff for both tributaries and mainstream were consistent with that from 1958 to 2003. Step changes probably occurred in 1961 for the runoff from Huangyang, Gulang and Dajing rivers according to the Worsley likelihood ratio test, but no similar results were found using the other two test methods. Three change points (1979, 1974 and 1973) were detected for the mainstream using different methods. These change points were close to the years that reservoirs started to be operated. Both climate change and human activities, especially the latter, contributed to the decreasing runoff in the study area. Between 21% and 79% of the reduction in runoff from the mainstream was due to the impact of human activities during the past few decades. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Monotonic trend and abrupt changes for major climate variables in the headwater catchment of the Yellow River basin

On the basis of the mean air temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration and pan evaporation at 23 meteorological stations in the headwater catchment of the Yellow River basin from 1960 to 2001, the long‐term monotonic trend and abrupt changes for major climate variables have been investigated. The plausible monotonic trend of annual climatic time series are detected using a non‐parametric method. The abrupt changes have been investigated in terms of a 5 year moving averaged annual series, using the moving t‐test (MTT) method, Yamamoto method and Mann–Kendall method. The results showed that the annual air temperature has increased by 0·80 °C in the headwater catchment of the Yellow River basin during the past 42 years. One obvious cold period and one warm period were detected. The warmest centre was located in the northern part of the basin. The long‐term trend for annual precipitation was not significant during the same period, but a dry tendency was detected. According to the Kendall slope values, the declining centre for annual precipitation was located in the eastern part and the centre of the study area. The long‐term monotonic trend for annual sunshine duration and pan evaporation were negative. The average Kendall slopes are ? 29·96 h/10 yr and ? 39·63 mm/10 yr, respectively. The tests for abrupt changes using MTT and Yamamoto methods show similar results. Abrupt changes occurred in the mid 1980s for temperature, in the late 1980s for precipitation and in the early 1980s for sunshine duration and pan evaporation. It can be seen that the abrupt changes really happened in the 1980s for the climate variables. Different results are shown using the Mann–Kendall method. Both the abrupt changes of temperature and precipitation took place in the early 1990s, and that of pan evaporation occurred in the 1960s. The only abrupt change in sunshine duration happened during the similar period (in the 1980s) with the results detected by the MTT and Yamamoto methods. The abrupt changes which occurred in the 1990s and 1960s are not detectable using the MTT and Yamamoto methods because of the data limitation. However, the results tested by the MTT and Yamamoto methods exhibited great consistency. Some of the reasons may be due to the similar principles for these two methods. Different methods testing the abrupt climatic changes have their own merits and limitations and should be compared based on their own assumption and applicable conditions when they are used. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impacts of climate change and hydraulic structures on runoff and sediment discharge in the middle Yellow River

Due to climate change and its aggravation by human activities (e.g. hydraulic structures) over the past several decades, the hydrological conditions in the middle Yellow River have markedly changed, leading to a sharp decrease in runoff and sediment discharge. This paper focused on the impacts of climate change and hydraulic structures on runoff and sediment discharge, and the study area was located in the 3246 km² Huangfuchuan (HFC) River basin. Changes in annual runoff and sediment discharge were initially analysed by using the Mann–Kendall trend test and Pettitt change point test methods. Subsequently, periods of natural and disturbed states were defined. The results showed that both the annual runoff and sediment discharge presented statistically significant decreasing trends. However, compared with the less remarkable decline in annual rainfall, it was inferred that hydraulic structures might be another important cause for the sharp decrease in runoff and sediment discharge in this region. Consequently, sediment‐trapping dams (STDs, a type of large‐sized check dam used to prevent sediment from entering the Yellow River main stem) were considered in this study. Through evaluating the impacts of the variation in rainfall patterns (i.e. amount and intensity) and the STD construction, a positive correlation between rainfall intensity and current STD construction was found. This paper revealed that future soil and water conservation measures should focus on areas with higher average annual rainfall and more rainstorm hours. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A two-stage time series model for monthly hydrological projections under climate change in the Lim River basin (southeast Europe)

ABSTRACT

Climate change projections of precipitation and temperature suggest that Serbia could be one of the most affected regions in southeastern Europe. To prepare adaptation measures, the impact of climate changes on water resources needs to be assessed. Pilot research is carried out for the Lim River basin, in southeastern Europe, to predict monthly flows under different climate scenarios. For estimation of future water availability, an alternative approach of developing a deterministic-stochastic time series model is chosen. The proposed two-stage time series model consists of several components: trend, long-term periodicity, seasonality and the stochastic component. The latter is based on a transfer function model with two input variables, precipitation and temperature, as climatic drivers. The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency for the observed period 1950–2012 is 0.829. The model is applied for the long-term hydrological prediction under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) emissions scenarios for the future time frame 2013–2070.     

Quantitative assessment of the impact of climate variability and human activities on runoff changes: a case study in four catchments of the Haihe River basin,China

Quantitative evaluation of the effect of climate variability and human activities on runoff is of great importance for water resources planning and management in terms of maintaining the ecosystem integrity and sustaining the society development. In this paper, hydro‐climatic data from four catchments (i.e. Luanhe River catchment, Chaohe River catchment, Hutuo River catchment and Zhanghe River catchment) in the Haihe River basin from 1957 to 2000 were used to quantitatively attribute the hydrological response (i.e. runoff) to climate change and human activities separately. To separate the attributes, the temporal trends of annual precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET) and runoff during 1957–2000 were first explored by the Mann–Kendall test. Despite that only Hutuo River catchment was dominated by a significant negative trend in annual precipitation, all four catchments presented significant negative trend in annual runoff varying from ?0.859 (Chaohe River) to ?1.996 mm a^?1 (Zhanghe River). Change points in 1977 and 1979 are detected by precipitation–runoff double cumulative curves method and Pettitt's test for Zhanghe River and the other three rivers, respectively, and are adopted to divide data set into two study periods as the pre‐change period and post‐change period. Three methods including hydrological model method, hydrological sensitivity analysis method and climate elasticity method were calibrated with the hydro‐climatic data during the pre‐change period. Then, hydrological runoff response to climate variability and human activities was quantitatively evaluated with the help of the three methods and based on the assumption that climate and human activities are the only drivers for streamflow and are independent of each other. Similar estimates of anthropogenic and climatic effects on runoff for catchments considered can be obtained from the three methods. We found that human activities were the main driving factors for the decline in annual runoff in Luanhe River catchment, Chaohe River catchment and Zhanghe River catchment, accounting for over 50% of runoff reduction. However, climate variability should be responsible for the decrease in annual runoff in the Hutuo River catchment. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Variations in glacier volume and snow cover and their impact on lake storage in the Paiku Co Basin,in the Central Himalayas

Glaciers and snow cover are important constituents of the surface of the Tibetan Plateau. The responses of these phenomena to global environmental changes are sensitive, rapid and intensive due to the high altitudes and arid cold climate of the Tibetan Plateau. Based on multisource remote sensing data, including Landsat images, MOD10A2 snow product, ICESat, Cryosat-2 altimetry data and long-term ground climate observations, we analysed the dynamic changes of glaciers, snow melting and lake in the Paiku Co basin using extraction methods for glaciers and lake, the degree-day model and the ice and lake volume method. The interaction among the climate, ice-snow and the hydrological elements in Paiku Co is revealed. From 2000 to 2018, the basin tended to be drier, and rainfall decreased at a rate of −3.07 mm/a. The seasonal temperature difference in the basin increased, the maximum temperature increased at a rate of 0.02°C/a and the minimum temperature decreased at a rate of −0.06°C/a, which accelerated the melting from glaciers and snow at rates of 0.55 × 10⁷ m³/a and 0.29 × 10⁷ m³/a, respectively. The rate of contribution to the lake from rainfall, snow and glacier melted water was 55.6, 27.7 and 16.7%, respectively. In the past 18 years, the warmer and drier climate has caused the lake to shrink. The water level of the lake continued to decline at a rate of −0.02 m/a, and the lake water volume decreased by 4.85 × 10⁸ m³ at a rate of −0.27 × 10⁸ m³/a from 2000 to 2018. This evaluation is important for understanding how the snow and ice melting in the central Himalayas affect the regional water cycle.     

Impact of projected climate change on the hydrology in the headwaters of the Yellow River basin

Located in the northeast of the Tibetan Plateau, the headwaters of the Yellow River basin (HYRB) are very vulnerable to climate change. In this study, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to assess the impact of future climate change on this region's hydrological components for the near future period of 2013–2042 under three emission scenarios A1B, A2 and B1. The uncertainty in this evaluation was considered by employing Bayesian model averaging approach on global climate model (GCM) multimodel ensemble projections. First, we evaluated the capability of the SWAT model for streamflow simulation in this basin. Second, the GCMs' monthly ensemble projections were downscaled to daily climate data using the bias‐correction and spatial‐disaggregation method and then were utilized as input into the SWAT model. The results indicate the following: (1) The SWAT model exhibits a good performance for both calibration and validation periods after adjusting parameters in snowmelt module and establishing elevation bands in sub‐basins. (2) The projected precipitation suggests a general increase under all three scenarios, with a larger extent in both A1B and B1 and a slight variation for A2. With regard to temperature, all scenarios show pronounced warming trends, of which A2 displays the largest amplitude. (3) In the terms of total runoff from the whole basin, there is an increasing trend in the future streamflow at Tangnaihai gauge under A1B and B1, while the A2 scenario is characterized by a declining trend. Spatially, A1B and B1 scenarios demonstrate increasing trends across most of the region. Groundwater and surface runoffs indicate similar trends with total runoff, whereas all three scenarios exhibit an increase in actual evapotranspiration. Generally, both A1B and B1 scenarios suggest a warmer and wetter tendency over the HYRB in the forthcoming decades, while the case for A2 indicates a warmer and drier trend. Findings from this study can provide beneficial reference to water resource and eco‐environment management strategies for governmental policymakers. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.