Influence of upstream inflow on wave celerity and time to equilibrium on an overland plane

Abstract

Based on the kinematic wave equations, formulae for the wave celerity along an overland plane subject to uniform rainfall excess and with a constant upstream inflow together with the corresponding average wave celerity and time to equilibrium for the entire plane are derived. The formulae are further developed in terms of both the Darcy-Weisbach resistance coefficient and the Manning resistance coefficient. By comparing the wave celerities, the average wave celerities and the time to equilibrium for planes with and without upstream inflow show that the upstream inflow causes the wave celerity and the average wave celerity to be faster and the times to equilibrium to be shorter. The effect of upstream inflow is greater with increasing inflow, but the marginal effect decreases with increasing inflow. The effect is greatest for laminar flow and least for turbulent flow. For the wave celerity, the effect is also greatest at the upstream end of the plane and least at the downstream end of the plane.     

Determination of equilibrium detention storage for a series of planes

Abstract

The detention storage in a drainage basin under the equilibrium condition is an important parameter in rainfall-runoff modelling. As this parameter is an efficient measure of the basin response to rainfall, it is commonly used as a basis of approximation of a complex basin by a simpler one. For flows on an overland plane, the equilibrium storage has also been used as a basis of determining the resistance coefficient of the overland surface. A formula is derived, based on the kinematic wave theory, for the equilibrium detention storage for a series of planes. For practical applications, the formula is further developed in terms of the Manning resistance coefficient. The derived formulae are all consistent with the published formulae for a single plane.     

How nature uses overland flow regime to maximize equilibrium detention storage and flood attenuation

Equilibrium detention storage is an important parameter as it has a proportional effect on flood attenuation. In this paper, based on the kinematic wave theory, a working formula for the equilibrium detention storage of an overland plane with upstream inflow has been derived. Since the flow regime over a concrete plane can vary throughout the entire range laminar to turbulent, this case has been selected to examine the effect of flow regime on the equilibrium detention storage. In the examination, the derived formula has been applied to four flow regimes: (a) laminar, (b) transitional, (c) near turbulent, and (d) turbulent. The examination shows that for planes with a small discharge, laminar flow gives the maximum detention storage. For planes with a medium discharge, transitional flow gives the maximum detention storage, and for planes with a large discharge, near turbulent flow gives the maximum detention storage. The flow regime can cause more than two‐fold increase in detention storage. All these results can be attributed to the respective flow resistance, and have been endorsed with analyses of the water surface profile and the rising limb of the hydrograph. Finally, relating the results to real‐life situations, it shows that the flow regime that gives the maximum detention storage is also the dominating flow regime in nature. Hence, extraordinarily, the flow regimes that exist in nature in fact provide maximum flood attenuation. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Water balance of Lake Victoria: update to 2000 and climate change modelling to 2100 / Bilan hydrologique du Lac Victoria: mise à jour jusqu’en 2000 et modélisation des impacts du changement climatique jusqu’en 2100

Abstract

Abstract An annual water balance model of Lake Victoria is derived for the period 1925–2000. Regression techniques are used to derive annual inputs to the water balance, based on lake rainfall data, measured and derived inflows and estimated evaporation during the historical period. This approach acknowledges that runoff is a nonlinear function of lake rainfall. A longer inflow series is produced here which is representative of the whole inflow to the lake, rather than just from individual tributaries. The results show a good simulation of annual lake levels and outflows and capture the high lake level in 1997–1998. Climate change scenarios, from a recent global climate model experiment, are applied to the lake rainfall inflow series and evaporation data to estimate future water balances of the lake. The scenarios produce a potential fall in lake levels by the 2030s horizon, and a rise by the 2080s horizon. A discussion of the application of climate change data to this complex hydrological system is presented.     

Diffusive wave solutions for open channel flows with uniform and concentrated lateral inflow

The diffusive wave equation with inhomogeneous terms representing hydraulics with uniform or concentrated lateral inflow into a river is theoretically investigated in the current paper. All the solutions have been systematically expressed in a unified form in terms of response function or so called K-function. The integration of K-function obtained by using Laplace transform becomes S-function, which is examined in detail to improve the understanding of flood routing characters. The backwater effects usually resulting in the discharge reductions and water surface elevations upstream due to both the downstream boundary and lateral inflow are analyzed. With a pulse discharge in upstream boundary inflow, downstream boundary outflow and lateral inflow respectively, hydrographs of a channel are routed by using the S-functions. Moreover, the comparisons of hydrographs in infinite, semi-infinite and finite channels are pursued to exhibit the different backwater effects due to a concentrated lateral inflow for various channel types.     

Reflection/transmission laws for slowness vectors in viscoelastic anisotropic media

The reflection/transmission laws (R/T laws) of plane waves at a plane interface between two homogeneous anisotropic viscoelastic (dissipative) halfspaces are discussed. Algorithms for determining the slowness vectors of reflected/transmitted plane waves from the known slowness vector of the incident wave are proposed. In viscoelastic media, the slowness vectors of plane waves are complex-valued, p = P + iA, where P is the propagation vector, and A the attenuation vector. The proposed algorithms may be applied to bulk plane waves (A = 0), homogeneous plane waves (A ≠ 0, P and A parallel), and inhomogeneous plane waves (A ≠ 0, P and A non-parallel). The manner, in which the slowness vector is specified, plays an important role in the algorithms. For unrestricted anisotropy and viscoelasticity, the algorithms require an algebraic equation of the sixth degree to be solved in each halfspace. The degree of the algebraic equation decreases to four or two for simpler cases (isotropic media, plane waves in symmetry planes of anisotropic media). The physical consequences of the proposed algorithms are discussed in detail. vcerveny@seis.karlov.mff.cuni.cz     

DILUTION GAUGING ON THE RECESSION LIMB: 1. CONSTANT RATE INJECTION METHOD / Mesures par dilution sur la courbe de tarissement: 1. Méthode par injection de taux constant

Abstract

The application of dilution gauging techniques to rivers and streams and other variable flows incurs a systematic error caused by the change in discharge with time. The discharge calculated from dilution gauging results may be considered as an estimate of the stream discharge at the injection section or the sampling section, and the magnitude and sense of the error vary according to this choice.

On the recession limb of a hydrograph and in other cases where the discharge may be expected to change smoothly and gradually, the equations derived from the residence time model previously proposed by the author may be linearized, and formulae of general applicability developed.

In this paper formulae are presented for the error arising in the case of a constant rate tracer injection, and examples are given of their application to results from a number of different flow systems. It is shown that the error may be significant in two situations: where the rate of change of discharge is high and where poor mixing necessitates long gauging reaches and hence long tracer injections.     

D) Other Organisations—D) Autres Organisations

Abstract

Lake Poopó, within the large Altiplano basin of Bolivia, is connected upstream to Lake Titicaca and downstream to the salares, the big salt fields. Small changes in precipitation and river inflows strongly affect the extent of the lake surface area. For times when there are no satellite images, it is difficult to determine the extent of the lake from observations. Water balance computations were performed to create a water-level series for Lake Poopó extending back in time. The dominant water inflow to Lake Poopó is from the River Desaguadero, which constitutes the outflow of Lake Titicaca. The water-balance computations confirm the crude peasant knowledge about historical lake status. It is found that if the lake level is less than 1 m during the wet season, there is a risk that this shallow lake dries out in the dry season.     

Numerical simulation of flow dynamics in a tidal river under various upstream hydrologic conditions

Abstract

A three-dimensional Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code model was developed for a 17-km segment of the Mobile River, Alabama, USA. The model external forcing factors include river inflows from upstream, tides from downstream, and atmospheric conditions. The model was calibrated against measured water levels, velocities, and temperatures from 26 April to 29 August 2011. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients for water levels were greater than 0.94 and for water temperatures ranged from 0.88 to 0.99. The calibrated model was extended approximately 13 km upstream for simulating unsteady flow, dye, and temperature distributions in the Mobile River under different upstream inflows and downstream harmonic tides. Velocity profiles and distributions of flow, dye, and temperature at various locations were analyzed and show that flow recirculation could only occur under small inflow (50 m³ s^-1) when downstream tides control the flow pattern in the Mobile River. The model results reveal complex interactions among discharges from a power plant, inflows, and tides.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor D. Yang     

Reservoir operation using El Niño forecasts—case study of Daule Peripa and Baba,Ecuador

Abstract

Reservoir operation is studied for the Daule Peripa and Baba system in Ecuador, where El Niño events cause anomalously heavy precipitation. Reservoir inflow is modelled by a Markov-switching model using El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices as input. Inflow is forecast using 9-month lead time ENSO forecasts. Monthly reservoir releases are optimized with a genetic algorithm, maximizing hydropower production during the forecast period and minimizing deviations from storage targets. The method is applied to the existing Daule Peripa Reservoir and to a planned system including the Baba Reservoir. Optimized operation is compared to historical management of Daule Peripa. Hypothetical management scenarios are used as the benchmark for the planned system, for which no operation policy is known. Upper bounds for operational performance are found via dynamic programming by assuming perfect knowledge of future inflow. The results highlight the advantages of combining inflow forecasts and storage targets in reservoir operation.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor I. Nalbantis     

Improving the performance of data-driven techniques through data pre-processing for modelling daily reservoir inflow

Abstract

The effect of data pre-processing while developing artificial intelligence (AI) -based data-driven techniques, such as artificial neural networks (ANN), model trees (MT) and linear genetic programming (LGP), is studied for Pawana Reservoir in Maharashtra, India. The daily one-step-ahead inflow forecasts are compared with flows generated from a univariate autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. For the full-year data series, a large error is found mainly due to the occurrence of zero values, since the reservoir is located in an intermittent river. Hence, all the techniques are evaluated using two data series: 18 years of daily full-year inflow data (from 1 January to 31 December); and 18 years of daily monsoon season inflow data (from 1 June to 31 October) to take into account the intermittent nature of the data. The relevant range of inputs for each category is selected based on autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation analyses of the inflow series. Conventional pre-processing methods, such as transformation and/or normalization of data, do not perform well because of the large variation in magnitudes, as well as the many zero values (65% of the full-year data series). Therefore, the input data are pre-processed into un-weighted moving average (MA) series of 3 days, 5 days and 7 days. The 3-day MA series performs better, maintaining the peak inflow pattern as in the actual data series, while the coarser-scale (5-day and 7-day) MA series reduce the peak inflow pattern, leading to more errors in peak inflow prediction. The results indicate that AI methods are powerful tools for modelling the daily flow time series with appropriate data pre-processing, in spite of the presence of many zero values. The time-lagged recurrent network (TLRN) ANN modelling technique applied in this study maps the inflow forecasting in a better way than the standard multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural networks, especially in the case of the seasonal data series. The MT technique performs equally well for low and medium inflows, but fails to predict the peak inflows. However, LGP outperforms the other AI models, and also the ARIMA model, for all inflow magnitudes. In the LGP model, the daily full-year data series with more zero inflow values performs better than the daily seasonal models.

Citation Jothiprakash, V. & Kote, A. S. (2011) Improving the performance of data-driven techniques through data pre-processing for modelling daily reservoir inflow. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(1), 168–186.     

Changes in source parameters of foreshocks and aftershocks of the 2001 Ms=6.0 Yajiang,Sichuan, earthquake

In this paper changes in focal mechanisms) parameters of wave spectra, and stress drops for the Ms=5.0 forcshock and Ms=6.0 mainshock in February 2001 in Yajiang County, Sichuan, and seismicity in cpiccntral region are studied. Comparison of focal mechanisms for the Yajiang earthquakes with distribution patterns of aftcrshocks, the nodal plane Ⅰ, striking in the direction of NEN, of the Yajiang M=5.0 event is chosen as the faulting plane, the nodal plane Ⅱ, striking in the direction of WNW, of the M=6.0 event as the faulting plane. The strikes of the two faulting planes are nearly perpendicular to each other. The level of stress drops in the cpicentral region before the occurrence of the M=6.0 earthquake increases, which is consistent with increase of seismicity in the epicentral region. The rate decay of the Yajiang earthquake sequence, changes in wave spectra for foreshocks and aftershocks,and focal mechanisms are complex.     

CDP RAY MODELING IN THE PRESENCE OF 3-D PLANE ISOVELOCITY LAYERS OF VARYING DIP AND STRIKE*

Various Dix-type formulae are derived, which are useful to approximate travel time functions that can be observed while modeling the common depth point (CDP) technique for 3-D isovelocity layers of varying dip and strike. All formulae can be used to compute interval velocities and recover the depth model from surface measurements. They are established by making use of the concept of wavefront curvature. Many similarities with known formulae valid for the 2-D plane isovelocity layer case exist.     

Management of an aquifer with artificial recharge using water balance

Abstract

This study considers the management of an aquifer with artificial recharge whose water resources are mainly used for irrigation and where the irrigation return flows and natural discharge are considerable. These two variables are dependent on the use and increase of water resources. The interaction between some inflow and outflow variables is taken into account in the computation of the actual volume of water available, there being a pre-established artificial recharge of the aquifer. Conversely, the artificial recharge for a given water demand may be calculated. The most important inflow and outflow variables are used in an equation system (the water balance for each period of time) for these interactions and the total inflow and outflow. An iterative procedure is developed that solves the equation and with it the computation of the actual availability of water and storage.     

Wave patterns generated by disturbances travelling horizontally in rotating stratified fluids

The pattern and propagation of waves generated by steady or oscillatory disturbances travelling horizontally in a rotating, stratified fluid are studied following a technique developed by Lighthill. Both two‐ and three‐dimensional distrubances are investigated. The results show how rotation modifies internal wave patterns in a stratified fluid and how stratification modifies inertial wave patterns in a rotating fluid. The results are used to compute the effective diminution of Taylor column length due to the presence of density stratification. They also show that the appearance of wave crests upstream of a disturbance is possible only when the disturbance is unsteady and that observations of upstream blocking in a two‐dimensional stratified flow can be explained by the existence of a certain class of plane waves as modified by viscosity.     

ERRORS OF KINEMATIC-WAVE AND DIFFUSION-WAVE APPROXIMATIONS FOR SPACE-INDEPENDENT FLOWS ON INFILTRATING SURFACES

Error equations for the kinematic-wave and diffusion-wave approximations were derived under simplified conditions for space-independent flows occurring on infiltrating planes or channels. These equations specify error as a function of time in the flow hydrograph. The kinematic-wave, diffusion wave and dynamic-wave solutions were parameterized through a dimensionless parameter γ which is dependent on the initial conditions. This parameter reflects the effect of initial flow depth, channel-bed slope, lateral inflow and channel roughness when the initial condition is non-vanishing; and it reflects the effect of bed slope, channel roughness, lateral inflow and infiltration when the initial condition is vanishing. The error equations were found to be the Riccati equation.     

Risk analysis for flood control operation of seasonal flood-limited water level incorporating inflow forecasting error

Abstract

The seasonal flood-limited water level (FLWL), which reflects the seasonal flood information, plays an important role in governing the trade-off between reservoir flood control and conservation. A risk analysis model for flood control operation of seasonal FLWL incorporating the inflow forecasting error was proposed and developed. The variable kernel estimation is implemented for deriving the inflow forecasting error density. The synthetic inflow incorporating forecasting error is simulated by Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) according to the inflow forecasting error density. The risk analysis for seasonal FLWL control was estimated by MCS based on a combination of the forecasting inflow lead-time, seasonal design flood hydrographs and seasonal operation rules. The Three Gorges reservoir is selected as a case study. The application results indicate that the seasonal FLWL control can effectively enhance flood water utilization rate without lowering the annual flood control standard.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor A. Viglione

Citation Zhou, Y.-L. and Guo, S.-L., 2014. Risk analysis for flood control operation of seasonal flood-limited water level incorporating inflow forecasting error. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (5), 1006–1019.     

Development of a real-time forecasting model for turbidity current arrival time to improve reservoir desilting operation

ABSTRACT

Among various strategies for sediment reduction, venting turbidity currents through dam outlets can be an efficient way to reduce suspended sediment deposition. The accuracy of turbidity current arrival time forecasts is crucial for the operation of reservoir desiltation. A turbidity current arrival time (TCAT) model is proposed. A multi-objective genetic algorithm (MOGA), a support vector machine (SVM) and a two-stage forecasting technique are integrated to obtain more effective long lead-time forecasts of inflow discharge and inflow sediment concentration. The multi-objective genetic algorithm (MOGA) is applied for determining the optimal inputs of the forecasting model, support vector machine (SVM). The two-stage forecasting technique is implemented by adding the forecasted values to candidate inputs for improving the long lead-time forecasting. Then, the turbidity current arrival time from the inflow boundary to the reservoir outlet is calculated. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the TCAT model, it is applied to Shihmen Reservoir in northern Taiwan. The results confirm that the TCAT model forecasts are in good agreement with the observed data. The proposed TCAT model can provide useful information for reservoir sedimentation management during desilting operations.     

DILUTION GAUGING ON THE RECESSION LIMB: 2. THE INTEGRATION METHOD / Mesures par dilution sur la courbe de tarissement: 2. Méthode par intégration

Abstract

The application of dilution gauging techniques to natural streams and other variable flows incurs a systematic error caused by the change in discharge with time. On the recession limb of a hydrograph the change is usually smooth and gradual, and errors can be expected intuitively to be small. In a preceding paper the author investigated errors arising from this cause in the case of a constant rate tracer injection, and developed formulae for the calculation of bias from known values of the recession constant and the distribution of residence time in the gauging reach. This paper extends the theory of the residence time model to the case of a dilution gauging by the integration method, and presents analogous formulae for the errors.