Evaluation of multiple stochastic rainfall generators in diverse climatic regions

Long term synthetic precipitation data are useful for water resources planning and management. Commonly stochastic weather generator (SWG) models are useful to produce synthetic time series of unlimited length of weather data based on the statistical characteristics of observed weather at a given location. However, it is difficult to find a single model which works best for all weather (climate) patterns. The objective of this study is to evaluate five different SWG models namely CLIGEN, ClimGen, LARS-WG, RainSim and WeatherMan to generate precipitation at three diverse climatic regions: a Mediterranean climate of western USA, temperate climate of eastern Australia and tropical monsoon region in northern Vietnam. The performance of SWG models to generate precipitation characteristics (i.e., precipitation occurrence; wet and dry spell; and precipitation intensity on wet days) varies between three selected climatic regimes. It was observed that the second order Markov chain (ClimGen and WeatherMan) performed well for all three selected regions in generating precipitation occurrence statistics. All models are able to simulate the ratio of wet/dry spell lengths with respect to observed precipitation. The RainSim performed well in reproducing wet/dry spell lengths in comparison to other models for wetter regions in Australia and Vietnam. ClimGen and WeatherMan are the two best models in simulating precipitation in the western USA, followed by CLIGEN and LARS. Similarly, ClimGen and WMAN are the two best models for synthetic precipitation generation for eastern Australian and northern Vietnam stations, but CLIGEN performs poorly over these regions. All SWG model performed differently with respect to climatic regimes, therefore careful validation is required depending on the weather pattern as well as its application in different water resources sectors. Although our findings are preliminary in nature, however, in order to generalize the performance of SWG’s in a given climate type, it is recommended that more number of stations needs to be evaluated in future studies.     

A preliminary investigation on the scaling behaviour of rainfall observed in two different climates

Abstract

The problem of transformation of rainfall data from one scale to another has been gaining considerable importance in recent years. Though the application of the concept of fractal theory, in the studies conducted thus far, nearly unanimously points at the possibility of such a transformation, the suitability of the theory to the highly variable rainfall in time and space has very often been questioned. A preliminary attempt is made herein to address this issue by investigating the existence of temporal scaling behaviour in rainfall data observed in two different climatic regions: (a) a subtropical climatic region (Leaf River basin, Mississippi, USA) and (b) an equatorial climatic region (Singapore). Rainfall data of three different resolutions, six-hourly, daily, and weekly, observed over a period of 25 years, are investigated. A mono- or simple-scaling method (box dimension method) is employed. The results achieved for the different data sets clearly indicate the existence of temporal scaling in rainfall observed in the two regions, an encouraging news on the suitability of fractal theory in understanding and modelling the rainfall process. However, the insufficiency of a single dimension to characterize the rainfall behaviour is realized, as the dimension depends on the rainfall intensity level, which, in turn, may be related to the rainfall generating mechanisms. A comparison of the box-dimension results obtained for data of different resolutions, from each of the regions, seems to indicate a possible connection between them, a prospect of tremendous practical importance. Another interesting observation is the similarity between the box dimension results obtained for rainfall data from Leaf River basin and Singapore, but this is also clearly related to the intensity level. The dependence of the dimension on the intensity threshold suggests the use of a multi-dimensional fractal approach, where the process is characterized by more than one dimension (or a dimension function) instead of one single dimension. On the basis of the present results, some potential areas for further study are identified.     

Greatest observed one-day point and areal rainfall of India

The greatest one-day rain amounts recorded at individual stations in the country during the last 41-year period from 1940 onwards were examined for all observatories as well as State rain-gauge stations in an attempt to bring out up-to-date information on the greatest recorded point rainfall for the duration of one day. Outstanding one-day point rainfall amounts recorded prior to 1940 were also examined and have been included in this note along with their date and year of occurrence by way of comparison. A generalized chart has been prepared based on the percentage ratios of the greatest one-day rainfall to the mean annual rainfall of about 300 observatory stations distributed uniformly over the entire country. On the basis of Depth-Area-Duration (DAD) analyses of the most severe rainstorms which occurred over different plain areas of the country, it has been found that the 2 July, 1941, rainstorm gave the highest areal rain depths in the country for different areas. Comparison with similar areal rain depths of the tropical USA has shown that rain depths of the July, 1941, rainstorm were higher for all areas excepting the areas of 500 sq. miles (1295 sq. km) and 1000 sq. miles (2590 sq. km).     

不同地理区域湖泊中萼花臂尾轮虫的生活史特征

以3.0×106cells/ml的斜生栅藻(Scenedesmus obliquus)为食物,应用生命表统计学等方法比较研究了于2008年冬季采自芜湖市汀棠湖和广州市荔湾湖的萼花臂尾轮虫(Brachionus calyciflorus)在不同温度(10℃、15℃和20℃)下的生活史特征.结果显示,10℃下,芜湖种群除内禀增长率外的其他各生命表统计学参数均显著大于广州种群.15℃下,芜湖种群仅世代时间和后代混交率显著大于广州种群.20℃下,芜湖种群的世代时间和后代混交率显著大于广州种群,而总生殖率、净生殖率和内禀增长率则相反.两地理种群轮虫出生时的生命期望、世代时间和平均寿命均随温度的升高而逐渐显著地缩短,内禀增长率随温度的升高而逐渐显著地增大;但缩短或增大的速率在两地理种群间存在着差异.芜湖种群的总生殖率和净生殖率不受温度的显著影响;而广州种群的总生殖率随温度升高而逐渐显著地增大,净生殖率在20℃和15℃下无显著差异,但都显著高于10℃下.芜湖种群的后代混交率在10℃下显著高于20℃下,但均与15℃间无显著性差异;广州种群的后代混交率随温度的升高而逐渐显著地增大.两地理种群内禀增长率间的差异可能与各自对所栖息的水环境年平均温度的长期适应有关,而后代混交率间的差异则是它们对水温季节变化长期适应的结果.     

Complexity analysis of rainfall and runoff time series based on sample entropy in different temporal scales

This study applied sample entropy (SampEn) to rainfall and runoff time series to investigate the complexity of different temporal scales. Rainfall and runoff time series with intervals of 1, 10, 30, 90, and 365 days for the Wu-Tu upstream watershed were used. Thereafter, SampEn was computed for the five rainfall and runoff time series. The results show that for the various temporal scales, comparisons of the complexity between the rainfall and runoff time series based on the SampEn are inconsistent. Calculating the dynamic SampEn further elucidated variations of the complexity in the rainfall and runoff time series. In addition, the results show that SampEn measures of the rainfall and runoff time series are typically higher than the approximate entropy measures of the rainfall and runoff time series for a specific temporal scale. The complexity increases when the sample size increases for a specific temporal scale. Furthermore, temporal scales with low complexity and high predictability are obtained from the variations of SampEn for the rainfall and runoff time series with different temporal scales, thereby providing a reference for determining the appropriate temporal scale for rainfall and runoff time series forecasting.     

Stratification response of soil water content during rainfall events under different rainfall patterns

Many researchers have studied the influence of rainfall patterns on soil water movement processes using rainfall simulation experiments. However, less attention has been paid to the influence under natural condition. In this paper, rainfall, soil water content (SWC), and soil temperature at 10‐, 20‐, 30‐, 40‐, and 50‐cm depths were simultaneously monitored at 1‐min intervals to measure the variation in SWC (SWCv) in response to rainfall under different rainfall patterns. First, we classified rainfall events into four patterns. During the study period, the main pattern was the advanced rainfall pattern (38% of all rainfall events), whereas the delayed, central, and uniform rainfall patterns had similar frequencies of about 20%. During natural rainfall, rainwater rapidly passed through the top soil layers (10–40 cm) and was accumulated in the bottom layer (50 cm). When a high rainfall pulse occurred, the water storage balance was disturbed, resulting in the drainage of initial soil water from the top layers into the deeper layers. Therefore, the critical function of the top layers and the bottom layers was infiltration and storage, respectively. The source of water stored in the bottom layer was not only rainfall but also the initial soil water in the upper soil layers. Changes in soil temperature at each soil depth were comonitored with SWCv to determine the movement characteristics of soil water under different rainfall patterns. Under the delayed rainfall pattern, preferential flows preferred to occur. Under the other rainfall patterns, matrix flow was the main form of soil water movement. Rainfall amount was a better indicator than rainfall intensity for SWCv in the bottom layer under the delayed rainfall pattern. These results provide insights into the responses of SWCv under different rainfall patterns in northern China.     

Diagnosing peak-discharge power laws observed in rainfall–runoff events in Goodwin Creek experimental watershed

Observations from the Goodwin Creek experimental watershed (GCEW), Mississippi show that peak-discharge Q(A) and drainage area A are related, on average, by a power law or scaling relationship, Q(A) = αA^θ, during single rainfall–runoff events. Observations also show that α and θ change between events, and, based on a recent analysis of 148 events, observations indicate that α and θ change because of corresponding changes in the depth, duration, and spatial variability of excess-rainfall. To improve our physical understanding of these observations, a 5-step framework for diagnosing observed power laws, or other space-time patterns in a basin, is articulated and applied to GCEW using a combination of analysis and numerical simulations. Diagnostic results indicate how the power laws are connected to physical conditions and processes. Derived expressions for α and θ show that if excess-rainfall depth is fixed then there is a decreasing concave relationship between α and excess-rainfall duration, and an increasing and slightly convex relationship between θ and excess rainfall duration. These trends are consistent with observations only when hillslope velocity v_h is given a physically realistic value near 0.1 m/s. If v_h ? 0.1 m/s, then the predicted trends deviate from observed trends. Results also suggest that trends in α and θ can be impacted by the dependence of v_h and link velocity v_l on excess-rainfall rate.     

Study of sensible fluxes from different climatic stations

Summary Two methods of the evaluation of sensible heat flux are briefly presented from the view point of their application to micrometeorology. The comparison of sensible fluxes for coastal and inland stations is presented, in order to explain the influence of the marine atmosphere on these fluxes. They reach a maximum value in summer at the coastal stations, due to maximum wind speed and high convective activity developed by the influence of the marine atmosphere.     

典型风场的分形特征及分形模拟

本文对于由风洞试验得出的不同风场类别的脉动风速进行了盒维数的分析,发现各类风场的盒维数明显不同,而采用传统数值模拟方法模拟的A、B、C三类风场的脉动风速的盒维数几乎没有变化。为了弥补脉动风速传统数值模拟方法的缺陷,采用包含分形维数的Weierstrass-Mandelbro函数模拟A、B、C三类风场的脉动风速,并与由风洞试验得到的各类风场的脉动风速的盒维数,湍流度,功率谱等特征进行对比。结果表明分形模拟方法所得的脉动风速的盒维数在各类风场中明显不同,且随着湍流度的增大而减小,并且分形模拟方法模拟的脉动风速谱和风洞试验的脉动风速谱更加接近。     

Long-term rainfall trends and change points in hot and cold arid regions of India

This study examined trends and change points in 100-year annual and seasonal rainfall over hot and cold arid regions of India. Using k-means clustering, 32 stations were classified into two clusters: the coefficient of variation for annual and seasonal rainfall was relatively high for Cluster-II compared to Cluster-I. Short-term and long-term persistence was more dominant in Cluster-II (entirely arid) and Cluster-I (partly arid), respectively. Trend tests revealed prominent increasing trends in annual and wet season rainfall of Cluster-II. Dry season rainfall increased by 1.09 mm year^?1 in the cold arid region. The significant change points in annual and wet season rainfall mostly occurred in the period 1941–1955 (hot and cold), and in the dry season in the period 1973–1975 (hot arid) and in 1949 (cold arid). The findings are useful for managing a surplus or deficiency of rainwater in the Indian arid region.

EDITOR A. Castellarin; ASSOCIATE EDITOR S. Kanae     

Cokriging for enhanced spatial interpolation of rainfall in two Australian catchments

Rainfall data in continuous space provide an essential input for most hydrological and water resources planning studies. Spatial distribution of rainfall is usually estimated using ground‐based point rainfall data from sparsely positioned rain‐gauge stations in a rain‐gauge network. Kriging has become a widely used interpolation method to estimate the spatial distribution of climate variables including rainfall. The objective of this study is to evaluate three geostatistical (ordinary kriging [OK], ordinary cokriging [OCK], kriging with an external drift [KED]), and two deterministic (inverse distance weighting, radial basis function) interpolation methods for enhanced spatial interpolation of monthly rainfall in the Middle Yarra River catchment and the Ovens River catchment in Victoria, Australia. Historical rainfall records from existing rain‐gauge stations of the catchments during 1980–2012 period are used for the analysis. A digital elevation model of each catchment is used as the supplementary information in addition to rainfall for the OCK and kriging with an external drift methods. The prediction performance of the adopted interpolation methods is assessed through cross‐validation. Results indicate that the geostatistical methods outperform the deterministic methods for spatial interpolation of rainfall. Results also indicate that among the geostatistical methods, the OCK method is found to be the best interpolator for estimating spatial rainfall distribution in both the catchments with the lowest prediction error between the observed and estimated monthly rainfall. Thus, this study demonstrates that the use of elevation as an auxiliary variable in addition to rainfall data in the geostatistical framework can significantly enhance the estimation of rainfall over a catchment.     

Investigating the time dynamics of monthly rainfall time series observed in northern Lebanon by means of the detrended fluctuation analysis and the Fisher-Shannon method

We investigate the time dynamics of monthly rainfall series intermittently recorded on seven climatic stations in northern Lebanon from 1939 to 2010 using the detrending fluctuation analysis (DFA) and the Fisher-Shannon (FS) method. The DFA is employed to study the scaling properties of the series, while the FS method to analyze their order/organization structure. The obtained results indicate that most all the stations show a significant persistent behavior, suggesting that the dynamics of the rainfall series is governed by positive feedback mechanisms. Furthermore, we found that the Fisher Information Measure (the Shannon entropy power) seems to decrease (increase) with the height of the rain gauge; this indicates that the rainfall series appear less organized and less regular for higher-located stations. Such findings could be useful for a better comprehension of the climatic regimes governing northern Lebanon.     

Effect of climatic change on snowmelt runoffs in mountainous regions of inland rivers in Northwestern China

Snow is one of the most active natural elements of snow cover through its high albedo, variation of the the cryosphere on the earth surface. Its unique proper- snow cover distribution and frozen soils in regional ties, such as areal extent, surface albedo, and snow scales not only affect local climate and environments, depth are important parameters in global energy bal- but also feedback to large-scale, or even global cli- ance models. On global and terrestrial scales, a large matic change th…     

Climatological distribution of lightning density observed by satellites in China and its circumjacent regions

The 0.5°×0.5°grid resolution distribution of lightning density in China and its circumjacent regions have been analyzed by using the satellite-borne OTD (Apr 1995-Mar 2000) and LIS (Dec 1997-Mar 2003) databases. It is shown that: (i) Firstly, the variability of the lightning density (LD) is particularly pronounced over the different subareas, 9 times greater over the south than the north side of Himalayas Mountains, 2.5 times greater over the eastern than the western area of China. While the maximum and minimum LD are respectively 31.4fl/km2/a (in Guangzhou region) and less than 0.2fl/km2/a (in the desert of western China). Secondly, the LD of China's continent regularly varies with latitude and distance off coast, which is consistent with annual mean precipitation in varying trend. In conclusion, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the China's three-step staircase topography and the latitude are three important factors affecting macro-scale characteristics of the LD distribution, (ii) The regional differences     

Comparison of two approaches for generation of daily rainfall data

There has been extensive research on the problem of stochastically generating daily rainfall sequences for use in water management applications. Srikanthan and McMahon [Australia Water Resources Council, Canberra, 1985] proposed a transition probability matrix (TPM) model that performs better for Australian rainfall than many alternative models, particularly where long records (say 100 years) are available. Boughton [Report 99/9, CRC for Catchment Hydrology, Monash University, Melbourne, 21pp, 1999] incorporated an empirical adjustment into the TPM model that allows the model to reproduce the observed variability in the annual rainfall. More recently, Harrold et al. [Water Resour Res 39(10, 12):1300, 1343, 2003a,b] proposed nonparametric models for the generation of daily rainfall occurrences and rainfall amounts on wet days. By conditioning on short, medium and long-term characteristics, this approach is also able to preserve the variability in annual rainfall. In this study, the above two approaches were used to generate daily rainfall data for Sydney and Melbourne, and the results evaluated. Both approaches preserved most of the daily, monthly and annual characteristics that were compared, with the nonparametric approach providing marginally better performance at the cost of greater model complexity. The nonparametric approach was also able to preserve the variability and persistence in the annual number of wet days.     

The use of the exponent K(q) function to delimit homogeneous regions in regional frequency analysis of extreme annual daily rainfall

The regional frequency analysis of extreme annual rainfall data is a useful methodology in hydrology to obtain certain quantile values when no long data series are available. The most crucial step in the analysis is the grouping of sites into homogeneous regions. This work presents a new grouping criterion based on some multifractal properties of rainfall data. For this purpose, a regional frequency analysis of extreme annual rainfall data from the Maule Region (Chile) has been performed. Daily rainfall data series of 53 available stations have been studied, and their empirical moments scaling exponent functions K(q) have been obtained. Two characteristics parameters of the K(q) functions (γ_max and K(0)) have been used to group the stations into three homogeneous regions. Only five sites have not been possible to include into any homogenous regions, being the local frequency analysis of extreme daily rainfall the most appropriate method to be used at these locations. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Wavelet analysis of rainfall variation in the Hebei Plain

Rainfall is an important climate factor, which has significant impacts on agricultural production and na-tional economic development[1]. Being part of the North China Plain, the Hebei Plain is an agricultural region. Under the continental monsoon climate, it is cold and dry in winter, hot and rainy in summer, and its variable rainfall is concentrated in summer. Droughts and floods occur frequently and impose sig-nificant impacts on agricultural production. Studies on the characteristics and …     

Nonlinear analysis of rainfall dynamics in California's Sacramento Valley

This study investigates the dynamic nature of rainfall observed at the Sustainable Agriculture Farming Systems (SAFS) site in California's Sacramento Valley, which was established to study the benefits of winter cover cropping in Mediterranean irrigated‐arid systems. Rainfall data of four different temporal scales (i.e. daily, weekly, biweekly, and monthly) are analysed to determine the dynamic nature of precipitation in time. In an arid climate with seasonal precipitation this has large implications for land and water management, both in the short term and in the long term. A nonlinear dynamic technique (correlation dimension method) that uses the phase‐space reconstruction and dimension concepts is employed. Bearing in mind the possible effects of the presence of zeros (i.e. no rain) on the outcomes of this analysis, an attempt is also made to compare the dynamic nature of all‐year rainfall and winter rainfall. Analysis of 15 years of data suggests that rainfall dynamics at this site are dominated by a large number of variables, regardless of the scales and seasons studied. The dimension results also suggest that: (1) rainfall dynamics at coarser resolutions are more irregular than that at finer resolutions; (2) winter rainfall has a higher variability than all‐year rainfall. These results are indeed useful to gain information about the complexity of the rainfall process at this site with respect to (temporal) scales and seasons and, hence, the appropriate model (high‐dimensional) type. However, in view of the potential effects of certain rainfall data characteristics (e.g. zeros, measurement errors, scale effects) on the correlation dimension analysis, the discussion also emphasizes the need for further verification, and possibly confirmation, of these results. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.