Recession flow prediction in gauged and ungauged basins by just considering past discharge information

ABSTRACT

Two contrasting methods have been proposed recently to predict the recession flow coefficient using past discharge information only. This study proposes a new method that attempts to obtain past discharge information that is minimally influenced by non-subsurface storage-controlled flows. The existing and new methods were tested using data from 324 US Geological Survey basins, and the new method was found to be superior to both existing methods in 265 basins. Furthermore, this study for the first time used past discharge-derived coefficients to predict recession discharge. The model performance was found to be satisfactory (NSE > 0.5) in 244 basins. Our results also show that the new framework may be useful in certain regions for predicting recession discharge in totally ungauged basins using past discharge information from nearby gauged basins. Overall, this study advances the idea that recession discharge can be predicted by just using past discharge data.     

Evaporation from shallow groundwater in closed basins in the Chilean Altiplano

Abstract

The hydrological cycle in arid and semi-arid climates is highly controlled by evaporation. The correct quantification of this process is essential for improving the accuracy of water balance estimates, especially in closed basins. The objective of this paper is to characterize evaporation rates from shallow groundwater using the chamber approach in six closed basins in the Altiplano of northern Chile. Measurements were made at 49 locations with water-table depths ranging from 0.09 m to 3.3 m. Estimated daily evaporation rates appeared to be strongly related to groundwater depth and soil texture. In particular, the highest rates were recorded in areas with high groundwater tables and coarse-grained soils. Evaporation curves were derived by fitting exponential and power relationships as functions of the groundwater depths that we proposed to use in the study area. An application of these curves for the Salar de Pedernales basin produced an estimated evaporation flow of 530 L s^-1, using the average curve.

Citation Johnson, E., Yáñez, J., Ortiz, C. & Muñoz, J. (2010) Evaporation from shallow groundwater in closed basins in the Chilean Altiplano. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(4), 624–635.     

A review of the synthetic unit hydrograph: from the empirical UH to advanced geomorphological methods

Abstract

This review paper critically examines one of the most popular flood hydrograph modelling techniques for ungauged basins, the synthetic unit hydrograph (SUH), and its recent developments and advances. For this purpose, the SUH models were first grouped into four main classes, as follows: (a) traditional or empirical models; (b) conceptual models; (c) probabilistic models; and (d) geomorphological models. It was found that the geomorphological class is the most useful and interesting, since it is able to employ topographic information, so limiting the role of the calibration parameters. This review is expected to be helpful to hydrologists, water managers and decision-makers searching for models to study the flood hydrograph, modelling techniques and related processes in ungauged basins. It was completed as the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) Decade (2003–2012) on predictions in ungauged basins (PUB), drew to a close.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor S. Grimaldi

Citation Singh, P.K., Mishra, S.K., and Jain, M.K., 2013. A review of the Synthetic Unit Hydrograph: from the empirical UH to advanced geomorphological methods. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (2), 239–261.     

PMP and PMF estimations in sparsely-gauged Andean basins and climate change projections

Abstract

Mixed-regime Andean basins present a complex scenario for flood analysis. In this study, we propose a methodology for incorporating orographic effects influenced by mountainous barriers in the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) estimation method in sparsely-gauged basins. The proposed methodology is applied to the Puclaro Reservoir basin in Chile, which is affected by the Andes. The PMP estimations were calculated by applying statistical and hydrometeorological approaches to the baseline (1960–1999) and climate change scenarios (2045–2065) determined from projections of the ECHAM5 general circulation model. Temperature projections for the 2040–2065 period show that there would be a rise in the catchment contributing area that would lead to an increase in the average liquid precipitation over the basin. Temperature projections would also affect the maximization factors in the calculation of the PMP, as precipitable water content, raising it to 126.6% and 62.5% under scenarios A2 and B1, respectively; the probable maximum flood (PMF) would increase to +175.5% under the A2 scenario. These projections would affect the safety of dam design and would be generalizable to zones with similar mixed hydrology and climate change projections. We propose that the methodology presented could be also applied to basins with similar characteristics.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor A. Porporato     

Incorporating uncertainty in hydrological predictions for gauged and ungauged basins in southern Africa

Abstract

The increasing demand for water in southern Africa necessitates adequate quantification of current freshwater resources. Watershed models are the standard tool used to generate continuous estimates of streamflow and other hydrological variables. However, the accuracy of the results is often not quantified, and model assessment is hindered by a scarcity of historical observations. Quantifying the uncertainty in hydrological estimates would increase the value and credibility of predictions. A model-independent framework aimed at achieving consistency in incorporating and analysing uncertainty within water resources estimation tools in gauged and ungauged basins is presented. Uncertainty estimation in ungauged basins is achieved via two strategies: a local approach for a priori model parameter estimation from physical catchment characteristics, and a regional approach to regionalize signatures of catchment behaviour that can be used to constrain model outputs. We compare these two sources of information in the data-scarce region of South Africa. The results show that both approaches are capable of uncertainty reduction, but that their relative values vary.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Kapangaziwiri, E., Hughes, D.A., and Wagener, T., 2012. Incorporating uncertainty in hydrological predictions for gauged and ungauged basins in southern Africa. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (5), 1000–1019.     

Understanding hydrological trends by combining the Budyko hypothesis and a stochastic soil moisture model

Abstract

The actual evapotranspiration and runoff trends of five major basins in China from 1956 to 2000 are investigated by combining the Budyko hypothesis and a stochastic soil moisture model. Based on the equations of Choudhury and Porporato, the actual evapotranspiration trends and the runoff trends are attributed to changes in precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, rainfall depth and water storage capacity which depends on the soil water holding capacity and the root depth. It was found that the rainfall depth increased significantly in China during the past 50 years, especially in southern basins. Contributions from changes in the water storage capacity were significant in basins where land surface characteristics have changed substantially due to human activities. It was also observed that the actual evapotranspiration trends are more sensitive to precipitation trends in water-limited basins, but more sensitive to potential evapotranspiration trends in energy-limited basins.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor A. Porporato     

Regional models of flow-duration curves of perennial and intermittent streams and their use for calibrating the parameters of a rainfall–runoff model

Abstract

One of the main challenges faced by hydrologists and water engineers is the estimation of variables needed for water resources planning and management in ungauged river basins. To this end, techniques for transposing information, such as hydrological regional analyses, are widely employed. A method is presented for regionalizing flow-duration curves (FDCs) in perennial, intermittent and ephemeral rivers, based on the extended Burr XII probability distribution. This distribution shows great flexibility to fit data, with accurate reproduction of flow extremes. The performance analysis showed that, in general, the regional models are able to synthesize FDCs in ungauged basins, with a few possible drawbacks in the application of the method to intermittent and ephemeral rivers. In addition to the regional models, we summarize the experience of using synthetic FDCs for the indirect calibration of the Rio Grande rainfall–runoff model parameters in ungauged basins.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Costa, V., Fernandes, W., and Naghettini, M., 2013. Regional models of flow-duration curves of perennial and intermittent streams and their use for calibrating the parameters of a rainfall–runoff model. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (2), 262–277.     

Overland flow on a diverging surface / Ecoulement superficiel sur une surface divergente

ABSTRACT

Many basins in nature diverge or possess diverging elements. This study formulates a diverging flow model utilizing kinematic wave theory. The kinematic equations are solved using a first order explicit finite difference scheme. The model is tested using data on a number of laboratory basins reported in the literature. A comparison of this model with the plane model shows that they yield different concentration times and hydrographs that differ in shape, depending upon the degree of divergence.     

Investigations du caractère multifractal des débits maximaux annuels de crue / Investigation of multifractality of maximum annual flood discharges

Abstract

Abstract The multifractal analysis of maximum annual flood discharges at 55 stations of the Tunisian gauging network allows one to associate the various statistical moments of surface discharges of the basins through a scale-invariant law. On this basis, a random cascades model is identified. The scale-invariant law obtained for extreme values represents a theoretical foundation for empirical models proposed since the 1960s which link extreme values, and their associated hazards, with surfaces of drainage areas.     

Soil moisture assessment in the alluvial basins associated with seismic activity of northwest Anatolia,Turkey, using Landsat TM/ETM satellite imagery / Estimation de l’humidité du sol associée à l’activité sismique dans les bassins alluviaux du nord-ouest de l’Anatolie (Turquie) par l’imagerie satellitaire Landsat TM/ETM

Abstract

Abstract The aim of this study is to detect seasonal surface temperature changes and to estimate soil moisture conditions based on the evaporative cooling principle of damp ground in the alluvial basins of northwest Anatolia, Turkey, using Landsat TM/ETM data. According to analysis of satellite sensor data acquired on different dates, soil moisture is greatest in the spring season in the basins. Soil moisture decreases toward the summer and autumn. The 17 August 1999 earthquake occurred in the high surface temperature (low soil moisture) period, and the 12 November 1999 earthquake occurred in the low surface temperature (high soil moisture) period. It is possible to conclude that the urban-rural settlements and industrial developments on the loose deposits of the Adapazari, ?zmit and Düzce depressions have been affected by the seasonal changes in the local ground conditions.     

Changes in concentration–discharge regression parameters due to coal mining and reclamation activities / Changements dans les paramètres de régression entre concentration et débit,causés par l’exploitation minière de charbon et des activités de reconversion

Abstract

Abstract Assessment of the impacts of mining and reclamation, and design of management practices to reduce chemical loads in stream channels, require knowledge of changing hydrological conditions and of changing sources and rates of release of chemicals into stream waters. One simple method for evaluating these impacts is to combine flow duration curves with regression relations between surface-water chemical concentrations (C) and instantaneous discharge (Q). However, little is known regarding the drainage basin-scale effects of mining and reclaiming drainage basins on regression relations. These effects were assessed on three small experimental drainage basins in Ohio subjected to surface mining for coal. Comparisons were made between regression parameter changes for natural/undisturbed conditions, land disturbances caused by mining and reclamation, incomplete reclamation, and the final condition of the reclaimed drainage basins. Regression analysis used a total of 5047 laboratory analyses of 36 constituents. Of 429 regressions, 153 (36%) were statistically significant. Knowledge of changes in regression parameters is important because regressions supply information on the rate of release and supply of chemical constituents in mined and reclaimed drainage basins. Duration curves of concentration and loads can be constructed using these regressions with flow–duration curves to give estimates of the percentage of time that concentrations and loads are exceeded during different phases of disturbance. This study assessed the changes in regression relations due to mining coal seams and reclamation activities for 36 chemical constituents, two mining methods, three reclamation practices and three distinct geologic settings.     

Modelling climate and land-use change impacts with SWIM: lessons learnt from multiple applications

Abstract

The Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM) is a continuous-time semi-distributed ecohydrological model, integrating hydrological processes, vegetation, nutrients and erosion. It was developed for impact assessment at the river basin scale. SWIM is coupled to GIS and has modest data requirements. During the last decade SWIM was extensively tested in mesoscale and large catchments for hydrological processes (discharge, groundwater), nutrients, extreme events (floods and low flows), crop yield and erosion. Several modules were developed further (wetlands and snow dynamics) or introduced (glaciers, reservoirs). After validation, SWIM can be applied for impact assessment. Four exemplary studies are presented here, and several questions important to the impact modelling community are discussed. For which processes and areas can the model be used? Where are the limits in model application? How to apply the model in data-poor situations or in ungauged basins? How to use the model in basins subject to strong anthropogenic pressure?

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor C. Perrin     

Pervious and impervious runoff in urban catchments

Abstract

Rainfall and runoff depths were examined for 763 storms on 26 urban basins located in 12 countries. For 17 of the basins, impervious surfaces were the major contributors to storm runoff. These basins were generally smaller than 25 ha and had small to medium storms in the data set. Nine basins had significant amounts of runoff from pervious as well as impervious surfaces. Eight of these basins are located in Australia. For all 26 basins, plots of rainfall and runoff depths were used to estimate the effective impervious area and the impervious area initial loss. The data plotted close to a single straight line on all basins, indicating that the effective impervious area remained constant for all storm sizes. The effective impervious fraction was related to total impervious area and the directly connected impervious fraction estimated from maps. For the basins with pervious runoff, the depth of rain in the storm was the most important factor in determining pervious runoff for rainfalls less than 50 mm, while for larger storms other factors including rainfall intensity and antecedent wetness were also found to be significant.     

A canonical correlation approach to the determination of homogeneous regions for regional flood estimation of ungauged basins

Abstract

A canonical correlation method for determining the homogeneous regions used for estimating flood characteristics of ungauged basins is described. The method emphasizes graphical and quantitative analysis of relationships between the basin and flood variables before the data of the gauged basins are used for estimating the flood variables of the ungauged basin. The method can be used for both homogeneous regions, determined a priori by clustering algorithms in the space of the flood-related canonical variables, as well as for “regions of influence” or “neighbourhoods” centred on the point representing the estimated location of the ungauged basin in that space.     

Prediction of base flows from basin characteristics: a case study from Zimbabwe / Prévision de débits de base à partir de caractéristiques du bassin: une étude de cas au Zimbabwe

Abstract

Abstract Base flows make up the flows of most rivers in Zimbabwe during the dry season. Prediction of base flows from basin characteristics is necessary for water resources planning of ungauged basins. Linear regression and artificial neural networks were used to predict the base flow index (BFI) from basin characteristics for 52 basins in Zimbabwe. Base flow index was positively related to mean annual precipitation (r = 0.71), basin slope (r = 0.76), and drainage density (r = 0.29), and negatively related to mean annual evapotranspiration (r = –0.74), and proportion of a basin with grasslands and wooded grasslands (r = –0.53). Differences in lithology did not significantly affect BFI. Linear regression and artificial neural networks were both suitable for predicting BFI values. The predicted BFI was used in turn to derive flow duration curves of the 52 basins and with R ² being 0.89–0.99.     

Simple water balance modelling of surface reservoir systems in a large data-scarce semiarid region / Modélisation simple du bilan hydrologique de systèmes de réservoirs de surface dans une grande région semi-aride pauvre en données

Abstract

Abstract Water resources in dryland areas are often provided by numerous surface reservoirs. As a basis for securing future water supply, the dynamics of reservoir systems need to be simulated for large river basins, accounting for environmental change and an increasing water demand. For the State of Ceará in semiarid Northeast Brazil, with several thousands of reservoirs, a simple deterministic water balance model is presented. Within a cascade-type approach, the reservoirs are grouped into six classes according to storage capacity, rules for flow routing between reservoirs of different size are defined, and water withdrawal and return flow due to human water use is accounted for. While large uncertainties in model applications exist, particularly in terms of reservoir operation rules, model validation against observed reservoir storage volumes shows that the approach is a reasonable simplification to assess surface water availability in large river basins. The results demonstrate the large impact of reservoir storage on downstream flow and stress the need for a coupled simulation of runoff generation, network redistribution and water use.     

GIS approach to scale issues of perimeter-based shape indices for drainage basins

Abstract

Shape indices have been in use for several decades to describe the characteristics and hydrological properties of drainage basins. Due to the fractal behaviour of the basin boundary, perimeter-based shape indices depend on the scale at which they are determined. Therefore, these indices cannot objectively compare drainage basins across a range of scales and basin sizes. This paper presents an objective GIS-based methodology for determining scale-dependent shape indices from gridded drainage basin representations. The scale effect is addressed by defining a representative scale at which the indices should be determined, based on a threshold symmetric difference between two grids representing the drainage basin at different resolutions.     

Groundwater storage change detection from in situ and GRACE-based estimates in major river basins across India

ABSTRACT

India has been the subject of many recent groundwater studies due to the rapid depletion of groundwater in large parts of the country. However, few if any of these studies have examined groundwater storage conditions in all of India’s river basins individually. Herein we assess groundwater storage changes in all 22 of India’s major river basins using in situ data from 3420 observation locations for the period 2003–2014. One-month and 12-month standardized precipitation index measures (SPI-1 and SPI-12) indicate fluctuations in the long-term pattern. The Ganges and Brahmaputra basins experienced long-term decreasing trends in precipitation in both 1961–2014 and the study period, 2003–2014. Indeterminate or increasing precipitation trends occurred in other basins. Satellite-based and in situ groundwater storage time series exhibited similar patterns, with increases in most of the basins. However, diminishing groundwater storage (at rates of >0.4 km³/year) was revealed in the Ganges-Brahmaputra River Basin based on in situ observations, which is particularly important due to its agricultural productivity.     

ON THE THEORY OF EVOLUTION OF RIVER NETS

Abstract

An investigation is made of the growth of river basins based on the two current models of the structure of such basins: the cyclic model and the random-graph model. Based on the assumption that the networks grow allometrically, the structure of the network that evolves has been calculated based upon the above two models. Nature seems to favor the random-graph model.     

UTILIZATION OF THE RESULTS FROM REPRESENTATIVE AND EXPERIMENTAL BASINS WITH A VIEW TO THE MANAGEMENT OF WATER RESOURCES / Utilisation des résultats obtenus sur les bassins représentatifs et expérimentaux en vue de l'aménagement des ressources en eau

Abstract

The management of water resources requires knowledge of the spatial and temporal distribution of surface and groundwater resources, and an assessment of the influence of man on the hydrological regime.

For small water courses regional estimates can be made from representative basins which offer guidelines (1) for the computation of mean annual flow and in some cases for the determination of the statistical distribution of the annual flow; (2) for the computation of the 10-year flood maximum discharge and volume.

An example concerning the tropical African Sahel is given. From a general study of the daily precipitation, a simple rainfall/runoff model used on a daily basis and calibrated on data from representative basins, and also the direct comparison of results from 55 representative basins, statistical distribution curves were established for annual runoff based on mean annual precipitation and the geomorphological characteristics of the basins.

Another example concerning tropical Africa west of Congo presents a methodology for the computation of the 10-year flood (maximum discharge and volume).

The systematic study of 60 representative basins makes it possible to plot the runoff coefficient R/P as a function of basin climate, mean slope and soil permeability. Other curves are used to determine the time of rise and the base time of the hydrograph as a function of the basin area and the mean slope.

The experimental basin is a good tool for the assessment of the influence of man on hydrological parameters. An example shows the influence of land use on the regression between annual precipitation and annual runoff.