Stage‐discharge uncertainty derived with a non‐stationary rating curve in the Choluteca River,Honduras

Uncertainty in discharge data must be critically assessed before data can be used in, e.g. water resources estimation or hydrological modelling. In the alluvial Choluteca River in Honduras, the river‐bed characteristics change over time as fill, scour and other processes occur in the channel, leading to a non‐stationary stage‐discharge relationship and difficulties in deriving consistent rating curves. Few studies have investigated the uncertainties related to non‐stationarity in the stage‐discharge relationship. We calculated discharge and the associated uncertainty with a weighted fuzzy regression of rating curves applied within a moving time window, based on estimated uncertainties in the observed rating data. An 18‐year‐long dataset with unusually frequent ratings (1268 in total) was the basis of this study. A large temporal variability in the stage‐discharge relationship was found especially for low flows. The time‐variable rating curve resulted in discharge estimate differences of ? 60 to + 90% for low flows and ± 20% for medium to high flows when compared to a constant rating curve. The final estimated uncertainty in discharge was substantial and the uncertainty limits varied between ? 43 to + 73% of the best discharge estimate. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Experimental study on the influence of river flow confluences on the open channel stage–discharge relationship

ABSTRACT

Accurate assessment of stage–discharge relationships in open channel flows is important to the design and management of hydraulic structures and engineering. Flow junctions commonly occur at the confluence of natural rivers or streams. The effect of flow junctions on the stage–discharge relationship at mountain river confluences was found by measuring velocity fields and water levels in experimental models. The results show that the backwater and accumulation–separation at flow junctions affect the flow structures and patterns in the channel; also, flow confluences may induce complex flow characteristics of backwater and flow separation at river junctions, indicating potential submerged flooding disasters within the confluence zone. The impacts of flow junctions on the stage–discharge relationship are investigated for two physical confluence models built from river confluence prototype systems in southwest China. The results show that the presence of tributary river inflows tends to increase the water level of the main river. This is important for flood control, flood-risk evaluation and engineering (e.g. hydropower station construction) in mountain rivers. Finally, a comparative quantitative analysis based on flow motion equations is conducted to evaluate the stage–discharge relationship in both uniform and regular confluence systems. The results indicate that more accurate prediction can be made when taking into account the flow non-uniformity induced by flow separation, backwater and distorted bed in the junction region.     

Sustained post-seismic effects on groundwater flow in fractured carbonate aquifers in Central Italy

A sustained increase in spring discharges was monitored after the 2016 Central Italy seismic sequence in the fractured carbonate aquifer of Valnerina–Sibillini Mts. The groundwater surplus recorded between August 2016 and November 2017 was determined to be between 400 and 500 × 10⁶ m³. In fractured aquifers, the post-seismic rise in spring discharges is generally attributed to an increase in bulk permeability caused by the fracture cleaning effect, which is induced by pore pressure propagation. In the studied aquifers, the large amount of additional discharge cannot only be attributed to the enhanced permeability, which was evaluated to be less than 20% after each main seismic event. A detailed analysis of the spring discharge hydrographs and of the water level at five gauging stations was carried out to determine the possible causes of this sudden increase in groundwater outflow. Taking into account the geological and structural framework, a conceptual model of a basin-in-series has been adopted to describe the complex hydrogeological setting, where the thrusts and extensional faults have clearly influenced the groundwater flow directions before and after the seismic sequence. The prevalent portion of the total post-seismic discharge surplus not explained by the increase in permeability has been attributed to changes in the hydraulic gradient that caused seismogenic fault rupture and the disruption in the upgradient sector of the aquifer. The additional flow calculated through the breach of the pre-existing hydrostructural barrier corresponds to approximately 470 × 10⁶ m³. This value is consistent with the total discharge increase measured in the whole study area, validating the proposed conceptual model. Consequently, a shift in the piezometric divide of the hydrogeological system has been induced, causing a potentially permanent change that lowers the discharge amount of the eastern springs.     

Kalman filtering in groundwater flow modelling: problems and prospects

The popularity of applying filtering theory in the environmental and hydrological sciences passed its first climax in the 1970s. Like so many other new mathematical methods it was simply the fashion at the time. The study of groundwater systems was not immune to this fashion, but neither was it by any means a prominent area of application. The spatial-temporal characteristics of groundwater flow are customarily described by analytical or, more frequently, numerical, physics-based models. Consequently, the state-space representations associated with filtering must be of a high order, with an immediately apparent computational over-burden. And therein lies part of the reason for the but modest interest there has been in applying Kalman filtering to groundwater systems, as reviewed critically in this paper. Filtering theory may be used to address a variety of problems, such as: state estimation and reconstruction, parameter estimation (including the study of uncertainty and its propagation), combined state-parameter estimation, input estimation, estimation of the variance-covariance properties of stochastic disturbances, the design of observation networks, and the analysis of parameter identifiability. A large proportion of previous studies has dealt with the problem of parameter estimation in one form or another. This may well not remain the focus of attention in the future. Instead, filtering theory may find wider application in the context of data assimilation, that is, in reconstructing fields of flow and the migration of sub-surface contaminant plumes from relatively sparse observations. Received: October 27, 1997     

Kalman filtering in groundwater flow modelling: problems and prospects

The popularity of applying filtering theory in the environmental and hydrological sciences passed its first climax in the 1970s. Like so many other new mathematical methods it was simply the fashion at the time. The study of groundwater systems was not immune to this fashion, but neither was it by any means a prominent area of application. The spatial-temporal characteristics of groundwater flow are customarily described by analytical or, more frequently, numerical, physics-based models. Consequently, the state-space representations associated with filtering must be of a high order, with an immediately apparent computational over-burden. And therein lies part of the reason for the but modest interest there has been in applying Kalman filtering to groundwater systems, as reviewed critically in this paper. Filtering theory may be used to address a variety of problems, such as: state estimation and reconstruction, parameter estimation (including the study of uncertainty and its propagation), combined state-parameter estimation, input estimation, estimation of the variance-covariance properties of stochastic disturbances, the design of observation networks, and the analysis of parameter identifiability. A large proportion of previous studies has dealt with the problem of parameter estimation in one form or another. This may well not remain the focus of attention in the future. Instead, filtering theory may find wider application in the context of data assimilation, that is, in reconstructing fields of flow and the migration of sub-surface contaminant plumes from relatively sparse observations. Received: October 27, 1997     

Radial groundwater flow to a finite diameter well in a leaky confined aquifer with a finite‐thickness skin

A mathematical model that describes the drawdown due to constant pumpage from a finite radius well in a two‐zone leaky confined aquifer system is presented. The aquifer system is overlain by an aquitard and underlain by an impermeable formation. A skin zone of constant thickness exists around the wellbore. A general solution to a two‐zone leaky confined aquifer system in Laplace domain is developed and inverted numerically to the time‐domain solution using the modified Crump (1976) algorithm. The results show that the drawdown distribution is significantly influenced by the properties and thickness of the skin zone and aquitard. The sensitivity analyses of parameters of the aquifer and aquitard are performed to illustrate their effects on drawdowns in a two‐zone leaky confined aquifer system. For the negative‐skin case, the drawdown is very sensitive to the relative change in the formation transmissivity. For the positive‐skin case, the drawdown is also sensitive to the relative changes in the skin thickness, and both the skin and formation transmissivities over the entire pumping period and the well radius and formation storage coefficient at early pumping time. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Recession flow prediction in gauged and ungauged basins by just considering past discharge information

ABSTRACT

Two contrasting methods have been proposed recently to predict the recession flow coefficient using past discharge information only. This study proposes a new method that attempts to obtain past discharge information that is minimally influenced by non-subsurface storage-controlled flows. The existing and new methods were tested using data from 324 US Geological Survey basins, and the new method was found to be superior to both existing methods in 265 basins. Furthermore, this study for the first time used past discharge-derived coefficients to predict recession discharge. The model performance was found to be satisfactory (NSE > 0.5) in 244 basins. Our results also show that the new framework may be useful in certain regions for predicting recession discharge in totally ungauged basins using past discharge information from nearby gauged basins. Overall, this study advances the idea that recession discharge can be predicted by just using past discharge data.     

MESURE DE LA PERMÉABILITÉ DES SOLS EN PLACE: UN NOUVEL APPAREIL POUR LA MÉTHODE MUNTZ UNE EXTENSION DE LA MÉTHODE PORCHET AUX SOLS HÉTÉROGÈNES

ABSTRACT

The authors make a general survey of the methods of measuring soil permeability in the field, looking at them from the point of view of the hydrologist.

In the first part they describe new equipment built by the ORSTOM Centre in Lome, Togo, to apply the Muntz method of vertical infiltration under constant head, equipment using a double cylinder and semi-automatic regulation of the discharge.

In the second part, the authors make a mathematical analysis of the Porchet method of horizontal infiltration in a borehole full of water: they show that results may be interpreted even with heterogeneous (multi-layered) soils and that the calculations are simplified using a computer programme.

In conclusion they deal with some results of measurements obtained by the two methods, and examine their accuracy and their correlation with the physical and hydrodynamics characteristics of the soils.     

River adjustments in response to human activities: A case study of the lower Beijiang River,China

Intensive human activity has caused significant changes in the river morphology and hydrological characteristics of the Pearl River Delta. Particularly, in-channel mining and dam construction have induced remarkable levels of downward riverbed incision. Although strict control measures have been implemented for in-channel sand mining, it remains unclear how the river has evolved since the abandonment of high-intensity mining and its impact on flow diversion at the downstream confluence. This study presents the hydrological and morphological adjustments in the lower Beijiang River, the second largest tributary of the Pearl River, under the impacts of human interventions. A hydrodynamic model was developed to reveal the impacts of riverbed deformation on the flow diversion ratio at Sixianjiao, the confluence of the Beijaing River and the Xijiang River. The results showed that construction of cascade reservoirs upstream reach did not strongly influence run-off, whereas incoming sediment loads were decreased. Because of upstream damming and in-channel sand mining, a dramatic downward incision was observed in the lower Beijiang River, with a degradation volume of approximately 239.8 million m³ from 1999 to 2012. Particularly, in the upper reach, the incision depth was typically larger than 8 m. Riverbed incision caused continuous changes in the water stage–discharge relationship, and discharge increased remarkably under the same water level at the three hydrometric stations. During 2012–2020, because in-channel sand mining was strictly controlled, rapid degradation was alleviated, deposition occurred in some cross-sections and the deformation volume decreased by approximately 90% compared to that in the last period. A fast downward incision induced a change in flow exchange between the two rivers, and the flow diversion ratio of the Beijiang River increased from an average of 17% before 1998 to more than 21%.     

Regional variation of recession flow power‐law exponent

Recession flows of a basin provide valuable information about its storage–discharge relationship as during recession periods discharge occurs due to depletion of storage. Storage–discharge analysis is generally performed by plotting ?dQ/dt against Q , where Q is discharge at time t . For most real world catchments, ?dQ/dt versus Q show a power‐law relationship of the type: ?dQ/dt = kQ^α . Because the coefficient k varies across recession events significantly, the exponent α needs to be computed separately for individual recession events. The median α can then be considered as the representative α for the basin. The question that arises here is what are the basin characteristics that influence the value of α ? Studies based on a small number of basins (up to 50 basins) reveal that α has good relationship with several basin characteristics. However, whether such a relationship is universal remains an important question, because a universal relationship would allow prediction of the value of α for any ungauged basin. To test this hypothesis, here, we study data collected from a relatively large number of basins (358 basins) in USA and examine the influence of 35 different physio‐climatic characteristics on α . We divide the basins into 2 groups based on their longitudes and test the relationship between α and basin characteristics separately for the two groups. The results indicate that α is not identically influenced by different basin characteristics for the two datasets. This may suggest that the power‐law exponent α of a region is determined by the way local physio‐climatic forces have shaped the landscape.     

Bayesian methods for estimating multi-segment discharge rating curves

This study explores Bayesian methods for handling compound stage–discharge relationships, a problem which arises in many natural rivers. It is assumed: (1) the stage–discharge relationship in each rating curve segment is a power-law with a location parameter, or zero-plane displacement; (2) the segment transitions are abrupt and continuous; and (3) multiplicative measurement errors are of equal variance. The rating curve fitting procedure is then formulated as a piecewise regression problem where the number of segments and the associated changepoints are assumed unknown. Procedures are developed for describing both global and site-specific prior distributions for all rating curve parameters, including the changepoints. Estimation and uncertainty analysis is evaluated using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation (MCMC) techniques. The first model explored accounts for parameter and model uncertainties in the interpolated area, i.e. within the range of available stage–discharge measurements. A second model is constructed in an attempt to include the uncertainty in extrapolation, which is necessary when the rating curve is used to estimate discharges beyond the highest or lowest measurement. This is done by assuming that the rate of changepoints both inside and outside the measured area follows a Poisson process. The theory is applied to actual data from Norwegian gauging stations. The MCMC solutions give results that appear sensible and useful for inferential purposes, though the latter model needs further efforts in order to obtain a more efficient simulation scheme.     

Application of L‐moments and Bayesian inference for low‐flow regionalization in Sefidroud basin,Iran

Reliable estimation of low flows at ungauged catchments is one of the major challenges in water‐resources planning and management. This study aims at providing at‐site and ungauged sites low‐flow frequency analysis using regionalization approach. A two‐stage delineating homogeneous region is proposed in this study. Clustering sites with similar low‐flow L‐moment ratios is initially conducted, and L‐moment‐based discordancy and heterogeneity measures are then used to detect unusual sites. Based on the goodness‐of‐fit test statistic, the best‐fit regional model is identified in each hydrologically homogeneous region. The relationship between mean annual 7‐day minimum flow and hydro‐geomorphic characteristics is also constructed in each homogeneous region associated with the derived regional model for estimating various low‐flow quantiles at ungauged sites. Uncertainty analysis of model parameters and low‐flow estimations is carried out using the Bayesian inference. Applied in Sefidroud basin located in northwestern Iran, two hydrologically homogeneous regions are identified, i.e. the east and west regions. The best‐fit regional model for the east and west regions are generalized logistic and Pearson type III distributions, respectively. The results show that the proposed approach provides reasonably good accuracy for at‐site as well as ungauged‐site frequency analysis. Besides, interval estimations for model parameters and low flows provide uncertainty information, and the results indicate that Bayesian confidence intervals are significantly reduced when comparing with the outcomes of conventional t‐distribution method. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

河北及邻区地震烈度衰减关系研究

地震震动的衰减关系在地震区划和工程场地的安全性评估过程中是不可或缺的。利用河北及周边区域历史地震的等震线资料,运用统计回归的分析方法,得到统计回归方程及地震烈度衰减关系,与其他烈度衰减关系进行对比分析,并与地震应急指挥技术系统软件及地震烈度分布资料进行对比,从而得到适用于河北及周边地区的地震烈度衰减关系。     

Efficacy of neural network and genetic algorithm techniques in simulating spatio‐temporal fluctuations of groundwater

Groundwater modelling has emerged as a powerful tool to develop a sustainable management plan for efficient groundwater utilization and protection of this vital resource. This study deals with the development of five hybrid artificial neural network (ANN) models and their critical assessment for simulating spatio‐temporal fluctuations of groundwater in an alluvial aquifer system. Unlike past studies, in this study, all the relevant input variables having significant influence on groundwater have been considered, and the hybrid ANN technique [ANN‐cum‐Genetic Algorithm (GA)] has been used to simulate groundwater levels at 17 sites over the study area. The parameters of the ANN models were optimized using a GA optimization technique. The predictive ability of the five hybrid ANN models developed for each of the 17 sites was evaluated using six goodness‐of‐fit criteria and graphical indicators, together with adequate uncertainty analyses. The analysis of the results of this study revealed that the multilayer perceptron Levenberg–Marquardt model is the most efficient in predicting monthly groundwater levels at almost all of the 17 sites, while the radial basis function model is the least efficient. The GA technique was found to be superior to the commonly used trial‐and‐error method for determining optimal ANN architecture and internal parameters. Of the goodness‐of‐fit statistics used in this study, only root‐mean‐squared error, r² and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency were found to be more powerful and useful in assessing the performance of the ANN models. It can be concluded that the hybrid ANN modelling approach can be effectively used for predicting spatio‐temporal fluctuations of groundwater at basin or subbasin scales. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Detecting the flow relationships between deep and shallow aquifers in an exploited groundwater system,using long‐term monitoring data and quantitative hydrogeology: the Acque Albule basin case (Rome,Italy)

Five years of hydrogeological monitoring and field activities performed in the complex hydrogeological system of the Acque Albule basin (AAB) were conducted to define the hydrogeological setting, the relationship between deep and shallow aquifers and a conceptual groundwater flow model of this exploited area using conventional quantitative techniques. The basin, which is located close to Rome (Italy) on the west side of the Apennine chain and just north of the Colli Albani volcano, subsided after development of a north–south fault system (about 115 000 y bp). The AAB experiences intense hydrothermal activity, which has produced a large travertine deposit (80‐m thick). The travertine deposit constitutes a fractured aquifer that is the final destination of more than 5 m³ s^‐1 of water and is strongly dewatered by quarry activities. The complex hydrogeology of this basin was investigated, revealing two main hydraulically connected aquifers, one thermalised and partly confined into the limestone bedrock and one unconfined in the travertine. The two aquifers are separated by a non‐continuous clayey aquiclude. The hydrogeological survey and geological characterisation contributed to the development of the groundwater flow conceptual model. Analysis and comparison of the monitored levels highlighted the pattern of flow between the deep and shallow parts of the flow system. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Uncertainty in streamflow rating curves: methods,controls and consequences

Discharge time series' are one of the core data sets used in hydrological investigations. Errors in the data mainly occur through uncertainty in gauging (measurement uncertainty) and uncertainty in determination of the stage–discharge relationship (rating curve uncertainty). Thirty‐six flow gauges from the Namoi River catchment, Australia, were examined to explore how rating curve uncertainty affects gauge reliability and uncertainty of observed flow records. The analysis focused on the deviations in gaugings from the rating curves because standard (statistical) uncertainty methods could not be applied. Deviations of greater/lesser than 10% were considered significant to allow for a measurement uncertainty threshold of 10%, determined from quality coding of gaugings and operational procedures. The deviations in gaugings were compared against various factors to examine trends and identify major controls, including stage height, date, month, rating table, gauging frequency and quality, catchment area and type of control. The analysis gave important insights into data quality and the reliability of each gauge, which had previously not been recognized. These included identification of more/less reliable periods of record, which varied widely between gauges, and identification of more/less reliable parts of the hydrograph. Most gauges showed significant deviations at low stages, affecting the determination of low flows. This was independent of the type of gauge control, with many gauges experiencing problems in the stability of the rating curve, likely as a result of sediment flux. The deviations in gaugings also have widespread application in modelling, for example, informing suitable calibration periods and defining error distributions. This paper demonstrates the value and importance of undertaking qualitative analyses of observed records. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.