Soil erosion and pollutant transport during rainfall-runoff processes

The pollutant from land surface applied to agricultural chemicals is one of the major sources of contamination in water bodies. The pollutant transport within a watershed is profoundly influenced by the rainfall-runoff processes, especially the associated upland erosion and sediment transport processes because most of pollutant can be dissolved into water or attached to the soil particles. A set of soil experiments in laboratory was conducted in this paper to investigate the impacts of upland erosion and sediment transport on pollutant loads. The soil utilized for the experiments was the silty sand collected from Loess Plateau, China; and ammonium bicarbonate was applied on the soil surface as the pollutant source. Runoff discharge, soil loss, and ammonia- and nitrate-nitrogen concentrations were measured to establish the relationships which can help the numerical model to predict the pollutant losses coupled with upland soil erosion during the rain-fall-runoff processes. The experimental results indicate the ammonia-nitrogen concentration in runoff reaches the peak at the initial stage of the overland flow generation, and quickly decreases and approaches to the steady state. The ammonia-nitrogen transported by the soil loss also makes contributions to the nitrogen loss; and its amount mainly depends on the soil transport rate. The ammonia-nitrogen dissolved in overland flow is dominant due to the strong aqueous solution of ammonium bicarbonate during the first storm right after its application.     

A stochastic integral equation analog of rainfall-runoff processes for evaluating modeling uncertainty

In this paper a very general rainfall-runoff model structure (described below) is shown to reduce to a unit hydrograph model structure. For the general model, a multi-linear unit hydrograph approach is used to develop subarea runoff, and is coupled to a multi-linear channel flow routing method to develop a link-node rainfall-runoff model network. The spatial and temporal rainfall distribution over the catchment is probabilistically related to a known rainfall data source located in the catchment in order to account for the stochastic nature of rainfall with respect to the rain gauge measured data. The resulting link node model structure is a series of stochastic integral equations, one equation for each subarea. A cumulative stochastic integral equation is developed as a sum of the above series, and includes the complete spatial and temporal variabilities of the rainfall over the catchment. The resulting stochastic integral equation is seen to be an extension of the well-known single area unit hydrograph method, except that the model output of a runoff hydrograph is a distribution of outcomes (or realizations) when applied to problems involving prediction of storm runoff; that is, the model output is a set of probable runoff hydrographs, each outcome being the results of calibration to a known storm event.     

A stochastic integral equation analog of rainfall-runoff processes for evaluating modeling uncertainty

In this paper a very general rainfall-runoff model structure (described below) is shown to reduce to a unit hydrograph model structure. For the general model, a multi-linear unit hydrograph approach is used to develop subarea runoff, and is coupled to a multi-linear channel flow routing method to develop a link-node rainfall-runoff model network. The spatial and temporal rainfall distribution over the catchment is probabilistically related to a known rainfall data source located in the catchment in order to account for the stochastic nature of rainfall with respect to the rain gauge measured data. The resulting link node model structure is a series of stochastic integral equations, one equation for each subarea. A cumulative stochastic integral equation is developed as a sum of the above series, and includes the complete spatial and temporal variabilities of the rainfall over the catchment. The resulting stochastic integral equation is seen to be an extension of the well-known single area unit hydrograph method, except that the model output of a runoff hydrograph is a distribution of outcomes (or realizations) when applied to problems involving prediction of storm runoff; that is, the model output is a set of probable runoff hydrographs, each outcome being the results of calibration to a known storm event.     

Stochastic processes on a sphere

The theory of stochastic processes on a sphere is analogous to the theory of one-dimensional stochastic processes, for which the independent variable is usually regarded as time. Some concepts, terminology, and fundamental theorems from the discipline of one-dimensional time series analysis are reviewed and related to corresponding concepts and theorems for the sphere. Applications to geomagnetism and gravimetric geodesy are discussed.     

Stochastic rainfall-runoff forecasting: parameter estimation,multi-step prediction,and evaluation of overflow risk

Probabilistic runoff forecasts generated by stochastic greybox models can be notably useful for the improvement of the decision-making process in real-time control setups for urban drainage systems because the prediction risk relationships in these systems are often highly nonlinear. To date, research has primarily focused on one-step-ahead flow predictions for identifying, estimating, and evaluating greybox models. For control purposes, however, stochastic predictions are required for longer forecast horizons and for the prediction of runoff volumes, rather than flows. This article therefore analyzes the quality of multistep ahead forecasts of runoff volume and considers new estimation methods based on scoring rules for k-step-ahead predictions. The study shows that the score-based methods are, in principle, suitable for the estimation of model parameters and can therefore help the identification of models for cases with noisy in-sewer observations. For the prediction of the overflow risk, no improvement was demonstrated through the application of stochastic forecasts instead of point predictions, although this result is thought to be caused by the notably simplified setup used in this analysis. In conclusion, further research must focus on the development of model structures that allow the proper separation of dry and wet weather uncertainties and simulate runoff uncertainties depending on the rainfall input.     

Origin and palaeo‐environments of calcareous sediments in the Moshaweng dry valley,southeast Botswana

Quaternary sedimentation in the Moshaweng dry valley of southeastern Botswana is evaluated on the basis of geomorphological evolution and sedimentological analyses. Stratigraphic evidence reveals an upper surface (1095 m) containing abundant sil‐calcrete, an intermediate surface (1085 m) in which sil‐calcrete underlies nodular calcrete and lower (1075 m) surface in which sil‐calcrete and nodular calcrete are interbedded. This subdivision is reflected in the geochemical composition of the sediments which show an overall trend of decreasing SiO₂ content (and increasing CaCO₃ content) with depth from the highest to the lowest surface levels. The calcretes and sil‐calcretes represent modifications of pre‐existing detrital Kalahari Group sand and basal Kalahari pebbles which thinned over a Karoo bedrock high. Modification took place during wet periods when abundant Ca⁺⁺‐rich groundwater flowed along the structurally aligned valley system. With the onset of drier conditions, water table fluctuations led to the precipitation of nodular calcretes in the phreatic layer to a depth of about 20 m. A major geochemical change resulted in the preferential silicification of the nodular calcrete deposits. Conditions for silica mobilization may be related to drying‐induced salinity and in situ geochemical differentiation brought about by pebble dissociation towards the top of the sediment pile. As calcretization and valley formation progressed to lower levels, silica release took place on a diminishing scale. Thermoluminescence dating infers a mid‐Pleistocene age for sil‐calcrete formation suggesting that valley evolution and original calcrete precipitation are much older. Late stage dissolution of CaCO₃ from pre‐existing surface calcretes or sil‐calcretes led to the formation of pedogenic case‐hardened deposits during a time of reduced flow through the Moshaweng system possibly during the upper or late Pleistocene. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

厄尔尼诺事件的随机特征

厄尔尼诺事件与强潮汐、日食、月食、火山、地震以及洋流冷暖循环相关．统计资料表明，厄尔尼诺事件的发生具有明显的随机特征，当各因素的最大值相互叠加时，就会发生强厄尔尼诺事件．厄尔尼诺与火山地震活动密切相关，具有区域性强，能量变化大，活动频繁，有规律但无严格周期等特点．厄尔尼诺事件是多种因素形成的。因而更具有随机特征．     

Assessing systematic errors in rainfall-runoff models

Techniques were examined for measuring the errors in estimated monthly flows from seven deterministic rainfall-runoff models, using results published in the literature. Various commonly used statistical tests were examined, but these did not disclose systematic errors which, by the application of other tests, were often found to exist. It was therefore concluded that hydrologists should test their results by applying a simple sign test and a measure of the reproduction of the residual mass curve referred to as the residual mass curve coefficient.     

Moisture origin and stable isotope characteristics of precipitation in southeast Siberia

The paper presents oxygen and hydrogen isotopes of 284 precipitation event samples systematically collected in Irkutsk, in the Baikal region (southeast Siberia), between June 2011 and April 2017. This is the first high-resolution dataset of stable isotopes of precipitation from this poorly studied region of continental Asia, which has a high potential for isotope-based palaeoclimate research. The dataset revealed distinct seasonal variations: relatively high δ¹⁸O (up to −4‰) and δD (up to −40‰) values characterize summer air masses, and lighter isotope composition (−41‰ for δ¹⁸O and −322‰ for δD) is characteristic of winter precipitation. Our results show that air temperature mainly affects the isotope composition of precipitation, and no significant correlations were obtained for precipitation amount and relative humidity. A new temperature dependence was established for weighted mean monthly precipitation: +0.50‰/°C (r² = 0.83; p <.01; n = 55) for δ¹⁸O and +3.8‰/°C (r² = 0.83, p < 0.01; n = 55) for δD. Secondary fractionation processes (e.g., contribution of recycled moisture) were identified mainly in summer from low d excess. Backward trajectories assessed with the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model indicate that precipitation with the lowest mean δ¹⁸O and δD values reaches Irkutsk in winter related to moisture transport from the Arctic. Precipitation originating from the west/southwest with the heaviest mean isotope composition reaches Irkutsk in summer, thus representing moisture transport across Eurasia. Generally, moisture transport from the west, that is, the Atlantic Ocean predominates throughout the year. A comparison of our new isotope dataset with simulation results using the European Centre/Hamburg version 5 (ECHAM5)-wiso climate model reveals a good agreement of variations in δ¹⁸O (r² = 0.87; p <.01; n = 55) and air temperature (r² = 0.99; p <.01; n = 71). However, the ECHAM5-wiso model fails to capture observed variations in d excess (r² = 0.14; p < 0.01; n = 55). This disagreement can be partly explained by a model deficit of capturing regional hydrological processes associated with secondary moisture supply in summer.     

Determination of basin lag time in rainfall-runoff investigations

Basin lag time varies not only between basins but also within a basin. To explain this variation, the basin lag time was hypothesized as a function of the ratio of the channel length from the centroid to the outlet of the basin, divided by the velocity of flow at the gauging site at the time of passage of peak discharge. The records of six basins were used to test this hypothesis. The results are not incompatible with this hypothesis.     

Evidence of chaos in the rainfall-runoff process

Abstract

The transformation of rainfall into runoff is one of the most important processes in hydrology. In the past few decades, a wide variety of automated or computer-based approaches have been applied to model this process. However, many such approaches have an important limitation in that they treat the rainfall-runoff process as a realization of only a few parameters of linear relationships rather than the process as a whole. What is required, therefore, is an approach that can capture not only the overall appearance but also the intricate details of the nonlinear behaviour of the process. The purpose of this study is to investigate the possibility of understanding the dynamics of the rainfall-runoff process from a new perspective, as a chaotic process. The possible existence of chaotic behaviour in the rainfall-runoff process is studied by investigating the rainfall and runoff time series: (a) separately; and (b) jointly (using the runoff coefficient). Monthly rainfall and runoff observed over a period of 131 years (January 1807-December 1937) at the Göta River basin in the south of Sweden are analysed. The correlation dimension method is employed to identify the presence of chaos. The correlation dimensions obtained for the rainfall and runoff time series are 6.4 and 5.5, respectively. The finite dimensions obtained for the rainfall and runoff time series indicate the possible existence of chaos in these processes, implying that the joint rainfall-runoff process might also exhibit chaotic behaviour. The correlation dimension of about 7.8 obtained for the runoff coefficient also indicates the possible presence of chaos and supports the above results.     

Stochastic similarities between the microscale of turbulence and hydro-meteorological processes

ABSTRACT

Turbulence is considered to generate and drive most geophysical processes. The simplest case is isotropic turbulence. In this paper, the most common three-dimensional power-spectrum-based models of isotropic turbulence are studied in terms of their stochastic properties. Such models often have a high order of complexity, lack stochastic interpretation and violate basic stochastic asymptotic properties, such as the theoretical limits of the Hurst coefficient, when Hurst-Kolmogorov behaviour is observed. A simpler and robust model (which incorporates self-similarity structures, e.g. fractal dimension and Hurst coefficient) is proposed using a climacogram-based stochastic framework and tested over high-resolution observational data of laboratory scale as well as hydro-meteorological observations of wind speed and precipitation intensities. Expressions of other stochastic tools such as the autocovariance and power spectrum are also produced from the model and show agreement with data. Finally, uncertainty, discretization and bias related errors are estimated for each stochastic tool, showing lower errors for the climacogram-based ones and larger for power spectrum ones.     

青藏高原东南缘南段现今变形特征研究

本文以青藏高原东南缘南段1999—2017年的GPS速度场为主,结合小震分布、历史地震和活断层探测等资料,首先,基于Okada断层位错模型反演了研究区域主要活断层的滑动速率;其次,以断层滑动速率和GPS速度场观测资料作为约束,利用DEFNODE负位错方法反演了研究区域的块体内部变形及主要活断层的闭锁程度和滑动亏损;最后,计算研究区域现今应变率场,并结合Pms和XKS剪切波分裂结果,探讨分析了青藏高原东南缘的动力学特征.研究结果表明：（1）红河断裂带现今滑动速率明显低于南华—楚雄—建水断裂和无量山断裂;（2）红河断裂带的元江—元阳段、鹤庆—洱源段和小江断裂带北段处于强闭锁状态,南华—楚雄—建水断裂带和无量山断裂带中—北段的闭锁程度强于南段;（3）青藏高原东南缘南段现今地壳变形表现为近E-W向的拉张和近N-S向的挤压,最大剪切方向与Pms和XKS剪切波分裂的快波方向呈一定角度,表明地壳与地幔处于完全解耦状态,而中-下地壳低速层可能是壳幔解耦的主要原因之一;（4）青藏高原东南缘的整体变形受控于印度板块的推挤、印缅俯冲带的深源俯冲以及缅甸微板块与巽他板块的后撤/回退的共同作用.

     

Comparing performance of different loss methods in rainfall-runoff modeling

Water Resources - With respect to the effect of precipitation loss on runoff generation, different loss methods of Soil and Conservation Service (SCS), Green and Ampt (G.A.), Initial-Constant...     

Calibration of conceptual models for rainfall-runoff simulation

Abstract

Conceptual mathematical models are a useful tool for rainfallrunoff modelling of a basin. The calibration of such models has attracted the attention of a number of hydrologists since unique and optimal parameters are difficult to obtain. The calibration of a conceptual model is discussed through a simple conceptual model whose parameters are determined using a search technique. It is shown that the optimization algorithm converges to a global optimum even when the errors in the initial parameters are quite significant and the input environment is noisy.     

Development of a fuzzy logic-based rainfall-runoff model

Abstract

Rainfall-runoff models are used to describe the hydrological behaviour of a river catchment. Many different models exist to simulate the physical processes of the relationship between precipitation and runoff. Some of them are based on simple and easy-to-handle concepts, others on highly sophisticated physical and mathematical approaches that require extreme effort in data input and handling. Recently, mathematical methods using linguistic variables, rather than conventional numerical variables applied extensively in other disciplines, are encroaching in hydrological studies. Among these is the application of a fuzzy rule-based modelling. In this paper an attempt was made to develop fuzzy rule-based routines to simulate the different processes involved in the generation of runoff from precipitation. These routines were implemented within a conceptual, modular, and semi-distributed model-the HBV model. The investigation involved determining which modules of this model could be replaced by the new approach and the necessary input data were identified. A fuzzy rule-based routine was then developed for each of the modules selected, and application and validation of the model was done on a rainfall-runoff analysis of the Neckar River catchment, in southwest Germany.     

Magnetomineralogy of Botswana kimberlites

Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth - The magnetic properties and mineralogy of kimberlites from four pipes (BK53, BK56, AK08, and AK06) in Botswana are studied. It is shown that magnetic...     

Application of a rainfall-runoff model to three catchments in Iraq

Abstract

The capability of the Surface inFiltration Baseflow (SFB) conceptual rainfall-runoff model to simulate streamflow for three catchments selected from northern Iraq is investigated. These catchments differ in their climatic regimes and physical characteristics. Three versions of the model were tested: the original three-parameter model (SFB), the modified five-parameter model (SFB-5), and the modified six-parameter model (SFB-6). The available daily precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and runoff data were used in conjunction with a simulated annealing (SA) optimization technique to calibrate the various versions of the SFB model. A simple sensitivity analysis was then carried out to determine the relative importance of the model parameters. The study indicated that use of the original three parameter model was not adequate to simulate monthly streamflow in the selected catchments. The modified version (SFB-5) provided better runoff simulation than the original SFB model; overall a 19% increase was observed in the coefficient of determination (R²) between simulated and observed monthly runoff. The SFB-5 model performed with varying degrees of success among the catchments. The model performance in the validation stage was reasonable and comparable to that of the calibration stage. The sensitivity analysis of the SFB model for arid catchments revealed that the baseflow parameter (B) was the most sensitive one, while the S and F parameters were less sensitive than the B parameter.     

A note on the characteristics and possible origins of desert varnishes from southeast Morocco

Two substrate-controlled varnish types were identified from arid southeast Morocco: (1) patchy varnish interspersed with ‘silica glaze’ on silicified limestone and (2) a complete varnish cover on partially-silicified limestone. Electron probe microanalysis was used in conjunction with scanning electron microscopy to investigate their chemical composition. In both instances, varnishes are predominantly silica and iron-rich with localized concentrations of manganese. Inorganic fixation of iron and manganese is the preferred explanation, with manganese and iron derived predominantly from external sources—possibly wind-blown dust. Some iron and silica may also be derived by outward migration from within the substrate, particularly on partially silicified limestone.