Evaluating flash-flood warnings at ungauged locations using post-event surveys: a case study with the AIGA warning system

Abstract

This article presents a comparison between real-time discharges calculated by a flash-flood warning system and post-event flood peak estimates. The studied event occurred on 15 and 16 June 2010 at the Argens catchment located in the south of France. Real-time flood warnings were provided by the AIGA (Adaptation d’Information Géographique pour l’Alerte en Crue) warning system, which is based on a simple distributed hydrological model run at a 1-km² resolution using radar rainfall information. The timing of the warnings (updated every 15 min) was compared to the observed flood impacts. Furthermore, “consolidated” flood peaks estimated by an intensive post-event survey were used to evaluate the AIGA-estimated peak discharges. The results indicated that the AIGA warnings clearly identified the most affected areas. However, the effective lead-time of the event detection was short, especially for fast-response catchments, because the current method does not take into account any rainfall forecast. The flood peak analysis showed a relatively good correspondence between AIGA- and field-estimated peak values, although some differences were due to the rainfall underestimation by the radar and rainfall–runoff model limitations.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor R.J. Moore

Citation Javelle, P., Demargne, J., Defrance, D., Pansu, J. and Arnaud, P., 2014. Evaluating flash-flood warnings at ungauged locations using post-event surveys: a case study with the AIGA warning system. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (7), 1390–1402. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.923970     

Evaluation of recent hydro-climatic changes in four tributaries of the Niger River Basin (West Africa)

West Africa experienced severe drought during the 1970s and 1980s, posing a threat to water resources. A wetter climate more recently suggests recovery from the drought. The Mann-Kendall trend and Theil-Sen’s slope estimator were applied to detect probable trends in weather elements in four sub-basins of the Niger River Basin between 1970 and 2010. The cross-entropy method was used to detect breakpoints in rainfall and runoff, Spearman’s rank test for correlation between the two, and cross-correlation analysis for possible lags. Results showed an overall increase in rainfall and runoff and a decrease in sunshine duration. Spearman’s coefficients suggest significant (5%) moderate to strong rainfall–runoff correlation for three sub-basins. A significant lower runoff was observed around 1979, with a rainfall break around 1992, indicating possible cessation of the drought. Temperatures increased significantly, at 0.02–0.05°C year^-1, with a negative wind speed trend for most stations. Half of the stations exhibited an increase in potential evapotranspiration.

EDITOR M.C. Acreman

ASSOCIATE EDITOR Not assigned     

Hydrological appraisal of rainfall estimates from radar,satellite, raingauge and satellite–gauge combination on the Qinhuai River Basin,China

ABSTRACT

Multisource rainfall products can be used to overcome the absence of gauged precipitation data for hydrological applications. This study aims to evaluate rainfall estimates from the Chinese S-band weather radar (CINRAD-SA), operational raingauges, multiple satellites (CMORPH, ERA-Interim, GPM, TRMM-3B42RT) and the merged satellite–gauge rainfall products, CMORPH-GC, as inputs to a calibrated probability distribution model (PDM) on the Qinhuai River Basin in Nanjing, China. The Qinhuai is a middle-sized catchment with an area of 799 km². All sources used in this study are capable of recording rainfall at high spatial and temporal resolution (3 h). The discrepancies between satellite and radar data are analysed by statistical comparison with raingauge data. The streamflow simulation results from three flood events suggest that rainfall estimates using CMORPH-GC, TRMM-3B42RT and S-band radar are more accurate than those using the other rainfall sources. These findings indicate the potential to use satellite and radar data as alternatives to raingauge data in hydrological applications for ungauged or poorly gauged basins.     

Analyses multifractales et spatio-temporelles des précipitations du modèle Méso-NH et des données radar

Résumé

Dans le cadre des multifractals universels, il est possible de caractériser la variabilité spatio-temporelle de la pluie sur une grande gamme d’échelle à l'aide de trois paramètres invariants d’échelles. Dans cette étude, nous avons estimé ces paramètres multifractals sur des simulations numériques effectuées avec le modèle méso-échelle Méso-NH, développé par Météo-France et le Laboratoire d'Aérologie (Univ. P. Sabatier, Toulouse, France), et des images radar composites, couvrant le même événement pluvieux, à savoir un orage particulièrement violent, dit de type Cévenol, ayant eu lieu sur la partie sud de la France du 5 au 9 Septembre 2005. La comparaison des résultats montre que les deux types de données présentent des domaines d'invariance d’échelle relativement similaires, et dont les propriétés sont en accord avec les modèles de précipitation spatio-temporels unifiés et scalants les plus simples. Néanmoins l’évaluation de leurs exposants conduit à des valeurs parfois fortement différentes.

Citation Gires, A., Tchiguirinskaia, I., Schertzer, D. & Lovejoy, S. (2011) Analyses multifractales et spatio-temporelles des précipitations du modèle Méso-NH et des données radar. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(3), 380–396.     

Improving rainfall–runoff modelling through the control of uncertainties under increasing climate variability in the Ouémé River basin (Benin,West Africa)

ABSTRACT

The objective of this paper is to understand how the natural dynamics of a time-varying catchment, i.e. the rainfall pattern, transforms the random component of rainfall and how this transformation influences the river discharge. To this end, this paper develops a rainfall–runoff modelling approach that aims to capture the multiple sources and types of uncertainty in a single framework. The main assumption is that hydrological systems are nonlinear dynamical systems which can be described by stochastic differential equations (SDE). The dynamics of the system is based on the least action principle (LAP) as derived from Noether’s theorem. The inflow process is considered as a sum of deterministic and random components. Using data from the Ouémé River basin (Benin, West Africa), the basic properties for the random component are considered and the triple relationship between the structure of the inflowing rainfall, the corresponding SDE that describes the river basin and the associated Fokker-Planck equations (FPE) is analysed.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis; ASSOCIATE EDITOR D. Gerten     

Evaluating the performance of ground-based and remotely sensed near real-time rainfall fields from a hydrological perspective

Abstract

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) issues routine experimental, near real-time rainfall maps from daily raingauge networks, radar networks and satellite images, as well as merged rainfall fields. These products are potentially useful for near real-time forecasting, especially in areas of fast hydrological response, and also to simulate the “now state” of various hydrological state variables such as soil moisture content, streamflow, and reservoir inflows. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate their skill as inputs to hydrological simulations and, in particular, the skill of the merged field in terms of better hydrological results relative to the individual products. Rainfall fields derived from raingauge, radar, satellite, conditioned satellite and the merged (gauge/radar/satellite) were evaluated for two selected days with relatively high amounts of rainfall, as well as for a continuous period of 90 days in the Mgeni catchment, South Africa. Streamflows simulated with the ACRU model indicate that the use of raingauge as well as merged fields of satellite/raingauge and satellite/radars/raingauge provides relatively realistic rainfall results, without much difference in their hydrological outputs, whereas the radar and raw satellite information by themselves cannot be used in operational hydrological application in their current status.

Citation Ghile, Y., Schulze, R. & Brown, C. (2010) Evaluating the performance of ground-based and remotely sensed near real-time rainfall fields from a hydrological perspective. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(4), 497–511.     

Integration of gauge and radar rainfall to enable best simulation of hydrological parameters

This study is about use of spatially distributed rain in physically based hydrological models. In recent years, spatially distributed radar rainfall data have become available. The distributed radar rain is used to precisely model hydrologic processes and it is more realistic than the past practice of distribution methods like Thiessen polygons. Radar provides a highly accurate spatial distribution of rainfall and greatly improves the basin average rainfall estimates. However, quantification of the exact amount of rainfall from radar observation is relatively difficult. Thus, the fundamental idea of this study is to apply hourly gauge and radar rainfall data in a distributed hydrological model to simulate hydrological parameters. Hence the comparison is made between the outcomes of the WetSpa model from radar rainfall distribution and gauge rainfall distributed by the Thiessen polygon technique. The comparative plots of the hydrograph and the results of hydrological components such as evapotranspiration, surface runoff, soil moisture, recharge and interflow, reflect the spatially distributed radar input performing well for model outflow simulation.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis

ASSOCIATE EDITOR F. Pappenberger     

Impact of interacting bark structure and rainfall conditions on stemflow variability in a temperate beech-oak forest,central Germany

ABSTRACT

Trees concentrate rainfall to near-stem soils via stemflow. When canopy structures are organized appropriately, stemflow can even induce preferential flow through soils, transporting nutrients to biogeochemically active areas. Bark structure significantly affects stemflow, yet bark-stemflow studies are primarily qualitative. We used a LaserBark to compute bark microrelief (MR), ridge-to-furrow amplitude (R) and slope (S) metrics per American Society of Mechanical Engineering standards (ASME-B46.1–2009) for two morphologically contrasting species (Fagus sylvatica L. (European beech), Quercus robur L. (pendunculate oak)) under storm conditions with strong bark water storage capacity (BWSC) influence in central Germany. Smaller R and S for F. sylvatica significantly lowered BWSC, which strongly and inversely correlated to maximum funnelling ratios and permitted stemflow generation at lower rain magnitudes. Larger R and S values in Q. robur reduced funnelling, diminishing stemflow drainage for larger storms. Quercus robur funnelling and stemflow was more reliant on intermediate rain intensities and intermittency to maintain bark channel-dependent drainage pathways. Shelter provided by Q. robur’s ridged bark also appears to protect entrained water, lengthening mean intrastorm dry periods necessary to affect stemflow. Storm conditions where BWSC plays a major role in stemflow accounted for much of 2013’s rainfall at the nearest meteorological station (Wulferstedt).

Editor M.C. Acreman; Associate editor not assigned     

Coupling between weather radar rainfall data and a distributed hydrological model for real-time flood forecasting / Couplage de données pluviométriques issues de radars météorologiques et d’un modèle hydrologique distribué pour la prévision de crue en temps réel

Abstract

Abstract After the destructive flood in 1998, the Chinese government planned to build national weather radar networks and to use radar data for real-time flood forecasting. Hence, coupling of weather radar rainfall data and a hydrological (Xinanjiang) model became an important issue. The present study reports on experience in such coupling at the Shiguanhe watershed. After having corrected the radar reflectivity and the attenuation data, the weather radar rainfall was estimated and then corrected in real time using a Kalman filter. In general, the precipitation estimated from weather radar is reasonably accurate in most of the catchment investigated, after corrections as above. Compared to the results simulated by raingauge data, the simulations based on the weather radar data are of similar accuracy. Present research results show that rainfall estimated from the weather radar, the radar data correction method, the method of coupling, and the Xinanjiang model lend themselves well to application in operational real-time flood forecasting.     

Modelling radar-rainfall estimation uncertainties using elliptical and Archimedean copulas with different marginal distributions

Abstract

Given that radar-based rainfall has been broadly applied in hydrological studies, quantitative modelling of its uncertainty is critically important, as the error of input rainfall is the main source of error in hydrological modelling. Using an ensemble of rainfall estimates is an elegant solution to characterize the uncertainty of radar-based rainfall and its spatial and temporal variability. This paper has fully formulated an ensemble generator for radar precipitation estimation based on the copula method. Each ensemble member is a probable realization that represents the unknown true rainfall field based on the distribution of radar rainfall (RR) error and its spatial error structure. An uncertainty model consisting of a deterministic component and a random error factor is presented based on the distribution of gauge rainfall conditioned on the radar rainfall (GR|RR). Two kinds of copulas (elliptical and Archimedean copulas) are introduced to generate random errors, which are imposed by the deterministic component. The elliptical copulas (e.g. Gaussian and t-copula) generate the random errors based on the multivariate distribution, typically of decomposition of the error correlation matrix using the LU decomposition algorithm. The Archimedean copulas (e.g. Clayton and Gumbel) utilize the conditional dependence between different radar pixels to obtain random errors. Based on those, a case application is carried out in the Brue catchment located in southwest England. The results show that the simulated uncertainty bands of rainfall encompass most of the reference raingauge measurements with good agreement between the simulated and observed spatial dependences. This indicates that the proposed scheme is a statistically reliable method in ensemble radar rainfall generation and is a useful tool for describing radar rainfall uncertainty.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor S. Grimaldi     

Dependence of radar quantitative precipitation estimation error on the rain intensity in the Cévennes region,France

Abstract

Radar quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) were assessed using reference values established by means of a geostatistical approach. The reference values were estimated from raingauge data using the block kriging technique, and the reference meshes were selected on the basis of the kriging estimation variance. Agreement between radar QPEs and reference rain amounts was shown to increase slightly with the space–time scales. The statistical distributions of the errors were modelled conditionally with respect to several factors using the GAMLSS approach. The conditional bias of the errors presents a complex structure that depends on the space–time scales and the considered geographical sub-domains, while the standard deviation of the errors has a more homogeneous behaviour. The estimation standard deviation of the reference rainfall and the standard deviation of the errors between radar and reference rainfall were found to have the same magnitude, indicating the limitations of the available network in terms of providing accurate reference values for the spatial scales considered (5–100 km²).

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Guest editor R.J. Moore

Citation Delrieu, G., Bonnifait, L., Kirstetter, P.-E., and Boudevillain, B., 2013. Dependence of radar quantitative precipitation estimation error on the rain intensity in the Cévennes region, France. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (7), 1300–1311. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.827337     

Implication of the flow resistance formulae on the prediction of flood wave propagation

ABSTRACT

This study examines the difference in the predictions of flood wave propagation in open channels depending on the flow resistance formulae, such as the Chézy and Manning’s equation. The celerity and diffusion coefficient are functions of the channel geometry, slope, roughness as well as the resistance formulae. The results suggest that substituting the Chézy equation with Manning’s equation results in different characteristics of flood propagation, which are consistent regardless of the cross-sectional geometry except for a circular cross-section: increasing celerity and decreasing diffusion coefficient. The celerity is more sensitive to the selection of resistance formulae than the diffusion coefficient. Geometry has a greater effect on the celerity and diffusion coefficient, and consequently on the resulting hydrographs. Manning’s equation results in a larger difference in celerity and diffusion coefficient compared to Chézy equation regardless of the water depth. Overall, this study shows that the selection of resistance formulae is important in terms of the resulting hydrographs and peak flow.

EDITOR Z.W. Kundzewicz ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned     

Testing the ‘two water worlds’ hypothesis under variable preferential flow conditions

Widespread observations of ecohydrological separation are interpreted by suggesting that water flowing through highly conductive soil pores resists mixing with matrix storage over periods of days to months (i.e., two ‘water worlds’ exist). These interpretations imply that heterogeneous flow can produce ecohydrological separation in soils, yet little mechanistic evidence exists to explain this phenomenon. We quantified the separation between mobile water moving through preferential flow paths versus less mobile water remaining in the soil matrix after free-drainage to identify the amount of preferential flow necessary to maintain a two water world's scenario. Soil columns of varying macropore structure were subjected to simulated rainfall of increasing rainfall intensity (26 mm h⁻¹, 60 mm h⁻¹, and 110 mm h⁻¹) whose stable isotope signatures oscillated around known baseline values. Prior to rainfall, soil matrix water δ²H nearly matched the known value used to initially wet the pore space whereas soil δ¹⁸O deviated from this value by up to 3.4‰, suggesting that soils may strongly fractionate ¹⁸O. All treatments had up to 100% mixing between rain and matrix water under the lowest (26 mm h⁻¹) and medium (60 mm h⁻¹) rainfall intensities. The highest rainfall intensity (110 mm h⁻¹), however, reduced mixing of rain and matrix water for all treatments and produced significantly different preferential flow estimates between columns with intact soil structure compared to columns with reduced soil structure. Further, artificially limiting exchange between preferential flow paths and matrix water reduced bypass flow under the most intense rainfall. We show that (1) precipitation offset metrics such as lc-excess and d-excess may yield questionable interpretations when used to identify ecohydrological separation, (2) distinct domain separation may require extreme rainfall intensities and (3) domain exchange is an important component of macropore flow.     

Rainfall estimation in the Sahel: the EPSAT-NIGER experiment

Abstract

EPSAT-NIGER (Estimation of Precipitation by SATellite—NIGER experiment) has been designed to improve the understanding of the precipitation systems of Sudano-Sahelian Africa and to develop operational rainfall estimation algorithms for this region. It is based on the combined use of a very dense raingauge network (93 gauges over a study area of 16 000 km₂) and a C-band weather radar system. The experiment is scheduled to last three years, 1990–1992. The network pattern, a regular grid with nodes spaced at 12.5 km and a 16 gauge target area where the distance between stations is decreased to 1 km, has allowed for some preliminary studies on the rainfall distribution at various space and time scales. Whereas the long term average rainfall gradient is uniform, rainfall increasing north to south, a single rainy season can be markedly different. The local variability may be extremely large. That variability is enhanced at smaller sampling time steps and the computation of reference areal rainfall for satellite imagery validation is extremely sensitive to the design of the ground-based validation system. The joint processing of gauge and radar data has led to the identification of a few typical features of the drop size distribution of the African squall lines, which could lead to deriving specific algorithms for radar calibration in this region. The data provided by EPSAT-NIGER will be used in various international projects for the assessment of water input from the atmosphere to the continent over the Sahel.     

Assessment of radar-based locally varying anisotropy on daily rainfall interpolation

ABSTRACT

Spatial variability of rainfall has been recognised as an important factor controlling the hydrological response of catchments. However, gauged daily rainfall data are often available at scattered locations over the catchments. This paper looks into how to capitalise on the spatial structure of radar rainfall data for improving kriging interpolation of limited gauge data over catchments at the 1-km² grid scale, using for the case study 117 gauged stations within the 128 km × 128 km region of the Mt Stapylton weather radar field (near Brisbane, Australia). Correlograms were developed using a Fast Fourier Transform method on the Gaussianised radar and gauged data. It is observed that the correlograms vary from day to day and display significant anisotropy. For the radar data, locally varying anisotropy (LVA) was examined by developing the correlogram centred on each pixel and for different radial distances. Cross-validation was carried out using the empirical correlogram tables, as well as different fitting strategies of a two-dimensional exponential distribution for both the gauged and the radar data. The results indicate that the correlograms based on the radar data outperform the gauged ones as judged by statistical measures including root mean square error, mean bias, mean absolute bias, mean standard deviation and mean inter-quartile range. While the radar data display significant LVA, it was observed that LVA did not significantly improve the estimates compared with the global anisotropy. This was also confirmed by conditional simulation of 120 rainfields using different options of correlogram development.

EDITOR M.C. Acreman; ASSOCIATE EDITOR Q. Zhang     

Comparing quantitative precipitation forecast methods for prediction of sewer flows in a small urban area

Abstract

Due to the relatively small spatial scale, as well as rapid response, of urban drainage systems, the use of quantitative rainfall forecasts for providing quantitative flow and depth predictions is a challenging task. Such predictions are important when consideration is given to urban pluvial flooding and receiving water quality, and it is worthwhile to investigate the potential for improved forecasting. In this study, three quantitative precipitation forecast methods of increasing complexity were compared and used to create quantitative forecasts of sewer flows 0–3 h ahead in the centre of a small town in the north of England. The HyRaTrac radar nowcast model was employed, as well as two different versions of the more complex STEPS model. The STEPS model was used as a deterministic nowcasting system, and was also blended with the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model MM5 to investigate the potential of increasing forecast lead-times (LTs) using high-resolution NWP. Predictive LTs between 15 and 90 min gave acceptable results, but were a function of the event type. It was concluded that higher resolution rainfall estimation as well as nowcasts are needed for prediction of both local pluvial flooding and combined sewer overflow spill events.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Guest editor R.J. Moore     

Modelling streamflow trends for a watershed with limited data: case of the Litani basin,Lebanon

Abstract

Streamflow variability in the Upper and Lower Litani basin, Lebanon was modelled as there is a lack of long-term measured runoff data. To simulate runoff and streamflow, daily rainfall was derived using a stochastic rainfall generation model and monthly rainfall data. Two distinct synthetic rainfall models were developed based on a two-part probabilistic distribution approach. The rainfall occurrence was described by a Markov chain process, while the rainfall distribution on wet days was represented by two different distributions (i.e. gamma and mixed exponential distributions). Both distributions yielded similar results. The rainfall data were then processed using water balance and routing models to generate daily and monthly streamflow. Compared with measured data, the model results were generally reasonable (mean errors ranging from 0.1 to 0.8?m³/s at select locations). Finally, the simulated monthly streamflow data were used to investigate discharge trends in the Litani basin during the 20th century using the Mann-Kendall and Sen slope nonparametric trend detection methods. A significant drying trend of the basin was detected, reaching a streamflow reduction of 0.8 and 0.7 m³/s per decade in January for the Upper and Lower basin, respectively.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor Sheng Yue

Citation Ramadan, H.H., Beighley, R.E., and Ramamurthy, A.S., 2012. Modelling streamflow trends for a watershed with limited data: case of the Litani basin, Lebanon. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (8), 1516–1529.     

Efficacité des aménagements de lutte contre le ravinement: cas du bassin versant d’El Hnach (Tunisie)

Résumé

La lutte contre le ravinement a longtemps été un point clé des stratégies de lutte contre l’érosion en milieu méditerranéen. Cependant l’évaluation de l’efficacité des stratégies et pratiques d’aménagements fait défaut. Dans ce contexte, l’objectif du présent travail est de proposer et tester une méthode d’évaluation de l’efficacité d’aménagements réalisés pour limiter le ravinement. La démarche adoptée s’appuie sur l’interprétation de photographies aériennes de différentes dates. Elle est développée sur le bassin versant tunisien d’El Hnach (3,7 km²), partiellement aménagé vers 1989 avec diverses pratiques anti-érosives (plantations d’arbres, construction de banquettes, de seuils et de cordons de pierre). La comparaison entre zones aménagées et zones non aménagées est réalisée après correction des effets pente, lithologie et climat grâce à une normalisation par rapport au comportement de secteurs « témoins » non aménagés. La cartographie de l’évolution des longueurs de ravines entre 1952 et 2004 a permis de mesurer les dynamiques de ravinement et de mettre en évidence la grande variabilité de l’efficacité des aménagements selon le contexte de pente et de géologie.

Editeur Z.W. Kundzewicz; Editeur associé G. Mahé

Citation Rebai, H., Raclot, D., et Ben Ouezdou, H., 2013. Efficacité des aménagements de lutte contre le ravinement (cas du bassin versant d’El Hnach, Tunisie). Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (7), 1532–1541.     

Simulating streamflow in the Upper Halda Basin of southeastern Bangladesh using SWAT model

ABSTRACT

Most catchments in tropical regions are ungauged and data deficient, complicating the simulation of water quantity and quality. Yet, developing and testing hydrological models in data-poor regions is vital to support water management. Here, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to predict stream runoff in Halda Basin in Bangladesh. While the calibrated model’s performance was satisfactory (R² = 0.80, NSE = 0.71), the model was unable to track the extreme low flow peaks due to the temporal and spatial variability of rainfall which may not be fully captured by using data from one rainfall gauging station. Groundwater delay time, baseflow alpha factor and curve number were the most sensitive parameters influencing model performance. This study improves understanding of the key processes of a catchment in a data-poor, monsoon driven, small river basin and could serve as a baseline for scenario modelling for future water management and policy framework.     

A spatial temporal downscaling approach to development of IDF relations for Perth airport region in the context of climate change

ABSTRACT

Downscaling of climate projections is the most adapted method to assess the impacts of climate change at regional and local scales. This study utilized both spatial and temporal downscaling approaches to develop intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) relations for sub-daily rainfall extremes in the Perth airport area. A multiple regression-based statistical downscaling model tool was used for spatial downscaling of daily rainfall using general circulation models (GCMs) (Hadley Centre’s GCM and Canadian Global Climate Model) climate variables. A simple scaling regime was identified for 30 minutes to 24 hours duration of observed annual maximum (AM) rainfall. Then, statistical properties of sub-daily AM rainfall were estimated by scaling an invariant model based on the generalized extreme value distribution. RMSE, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient and percentage bias values were estimated to check the accuracy of downscaled sub-daily rainfall. This proved the capability of the proposed approach in developing a linkage between large-scale GCM daily variables and extreme sub-daily rainfall events at a given location. Finally IDF curves were developed for future periods, which show similar extreme rainfall decreasing trends for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s for both GCMs.

Editor M.C. Acreman; Associate editor S. Kanae