The response of thunderstorm VLF radio noise to solar activity according to observations in Yakutsk

The relation between the long-term variations in the thunderstorm VLF radio noise intensity and solar activity in 1979–2006 has been studied. The sunspot number (the Wolf number) was used as a parameter characterizing solar activity. The intensity of VLF noise registered in Yakutsk characterizes thunderstorm activity in Eastern Siberia (0100–0500 UT) and in the African thunderstorm center (1300–1700 UT). Using the results of a correlation analysis, it has been found that thunderstorm activity in Eastern Siberia and in the African world centre is in antiphase with a change in the sunspot number. The highest anticorrelation coefficients between solar activity and thunderstorm discharge intensity were obtained for thunderstorms in Eastern Siberia. In this case the maximal correlation coefficients (R = −0.59 and −0.75) were obtained for the average monthly values of the VLF radio noise intensity in August, measured at 0400 UT and 1600 UT, respectively.     

Design Earthquakes in the U.K.

Three sites in the UK are taken, representative of low, medium and high hazard levels (by UK standards). For each site, the hazard value at 10⁻⁴ annual probability is computed using a generic seismic source model, and a variety of ground motion parameters: peak ground acceleration (PGA), spectral acceleration at 10 Hz and 1 Hz, and intensity. Disaggregation is used to determine the nature of the earthquakes most likely to generate these hazard values. It is found (as might be expected) that the populations are quite different according to which ground motion parameter is used. When PGA is used, the result is a rather flat magnitude distribution with a tendency to low magnitude events (\le 4.5 ML) which are probably not really hazardous. Hazard-consistent scenario earthquakes computed using intensity are found to be in the range 5.8–5.9 ML, which is more in accord with the type of earthquake that one expects to be a worst-case event in the UK. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The 20-second regional magnitude <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">S</Emphasis></Subscript>(20R) for the Russian Far East

A new modified magnitude scale M _S (20R) is elaborated. It permits us to extend the teleseismic magnitude scale M _S (20) to the regional epicenter distances. The data set used in this study contains digital records at 12 seismic stations of 392 earthquakes that occured in the northwest Pacific Ocean in the period of 1993–2008. The new scale is based on amplitudes of surface waves of a narrow range of the periods (16–25 s) close to the period of 20 s, for distances of 80–3000 km. The digital Butterworth filter is used for processing. On the basis of the found regional features concerning distance dependence for seismic wave attenuation, all the stations of the region have been subdivided into two groups, namely, “continental” and “island-arc.” For each group of stations, its own calibration function is proposed. Individual station corrections are used to compensate for the local features.     

Inversion for negative dislocation on elastic block boundaries in the northeastern margin of Qinghai-Xizang block and prediction for strong earthquake location

Introduction According to the negative dislocation model (Matsu′ura et al, 1986), the relative motion be-tween active blocks under contemporary crustal movement is likely to be partially blocked on the boundaries. Suppose the lower ductile zone of boundary could slip freely, while due to the fric-tional resistance, etc., the upper brittle zone would restrict such kind of relative motion, so as to give rise to stress and strain accumulation. Namely, the surface displacement in the block bound-…     

Wave response of the ionosphere to the partial solar eclipse of August 1, 2008

Quasi-periodic variations in the Doppler shift of the HF range frequency at a vertical path and critical frequency of the F ₂ layer caused by wave disturbances in the ionosphere on the day of the partial (the magnitude was about 0.42) solar eclipse and on background days are analyzed. For the spectral analysis, the window Fourier transform, adaptive Fourier transform, and wavelet analysis were jointly used. It is shown that on the day of the eclipse and the background day, spectral characteristics of wave disturbances within the 150–200 km height range differed substantially. The changes in the spectral composition began approximately 30–35 min after the solar eclipse beginning and lasted more than 1.5 h.     

Effect of variations in the solar-wind parameters on thunderstorm activity

Possible correlation between variations of the intensity of lightnings, which are estimated from the flux of thunderstorm-generated VLF-signals, and variations of the solar wind parameters has been investigated. The signals representing the intensity of local thunderstorms in summer and winter are received in Yakutsk (the Eastern Siberia) and in the African World Thunderstorm Center, respectively. The highest correlation coefficient has been obtained between the thunderstorm activity and variations of the solar-wind particle density. This correlation has a season-dependent sign-alternating character. The maximum positive and negative correlation coefficients are observed in August–September and February, respectively; i.e., the manifestation of solar wind density variations in the thunderstorm activity is maximal in the near-equinoctial periods. This may be associated with the peculiarities of the transfer of the magnetospheric electric field “from morning to evening,” which is induced by the solar-wind particle flux, to ionospheric heights.     

Evaluation of seismicity and seismic hazard parameters in Turkey and surrounding area using a new approach to the Gutenberg–Richter relation

In this study, the spatial distributions of seismicity and seismic hazard were assessed for Turkey and its surrounding area. For this purpose, earthquakes that occurred between 1964 and 2004 with magnitudes of M ≥ 4 were used in the region (30–42°N and 20–45°E). For the estimation of seismicity parameters and its mapping, Turkey and surrounding area are divided into 1,275 circular subregions. The b-value from the Gutenberg–Richter frequency–magnitude distributions is calculated by the classic way and the new alternative method both using the least-squares approach. The a-value in the Gutenberg–Richter frequency–magnitude distributions is taken as a constant value in the new alternative method. The b-values calculated by the new method were mapped. These results obtained from both methods are compared. The b-value shows different distributions along Turkey for both techniques. The b-values map prepared with new technique presents a better consistency with regional tectonics, earthquake activities, and epicenter distributions. Finally, the return period and occurrence hazard probability of M ≥ 6.5 earthquakes in 75 years were calculated by using the Poisson model for both techniques. The return period and occurrence hazard probability maps determined from both techniques showed a better consistency with each other. Moreover, maps of the occurrence hazard probability and return period showed better consistency with the b-parameter seismicity maps calculated from the new method. The occurrence hazard probability and return period of M ≥ 6.5 earthquakes were calculated as 90–99% and 5–10 years, respectively, from the Poisson model in the western part of the studying region.     

Intensity attenuation in the Campania region,Southern Italy

Ground motion prediction equations (GMPE) in terms of macroseismic intensity are a prerequisite for intensity-based shake maps and seismic hazard assessment and have the advantage of direct relation to earthquake damage and good data availability also for historical events. In this study, we derive GMPE for macroseismic intensity for the Campania region in southern Italy. This region is highly exposed to the seismic hazard related to the high seismicity with moderate- to large-magnitude earthquakes in the Appenninic belt. The relations are based on physical considerations and are easy to implement for the user. The uncertainties in earthquake source parameters are accounted for through a Monte Carlo approach and results are compared to those obtained through a standard regression scheme. One relation takes into account the finite dimensions of the fault plane and describes the site intensity as a function of Joyner–Boore distance. Additionally, a relation describing the intensity as a function of epicentral distance is derived for implementation in cases where the dimensions of the fault plane are unknown. The relations are based on an extensive dataset of macroseismic intensities for large earthquakes in the Campania region and are valid in the magnitude range M _w = 6.3–7.0 for shallow crustal earthquakes. Results indicate that the uncertainties in earthquake source parameters are negligible in comparison to the spread in the intensity data. The GMPE provide a good overall fit to historical earthquakes in the region and can provide the intensities for a future earthquake within 1 intensity unit.     

On the relation of moderate-short term anomaly of earth resistivity to earthquake

IntroductionMany anomalies due to earthquake have been recorded in observation of earth-resistivity for30 years and over, which showed that there objectively existed the anomalies of each-resistivity.The crustal strUcture and medium conditions are quite complex, so the complexity of the temporal,spatial and intensive development of the anomalies is inevitable. Both of time and amplitUde ofanomalies among some stations near an epicenter are different (even among different observational directi…     

Periodic spectral characteristics of seismicity before strong earthquakes and their application

IntroductionMaximumentropyspectralmethod(MEM)(Burg,1972)hadbeenamethodusuallyusedinstudyingtheseismicityanditsmainpurposeistofindthedominantspectrainthelong-termseismicityprocessesinthepastyears(Zhu,1985).Inthispaper,themethodisappliedtostudywhethertherearesomespecialspectraofseismicityinsomespecificstagesinearthquake-generatingprocesses.Sowestudyseparatelythenormalandabnormalstageofearthquakeactivity,whoseactiveprocessisregardedasstablestochasticprocess,inordertofindtheirspectracharactersan…     

Diagnosis of Time of Increased Probability (TIP) for Volcanic Earthquakes at Mt. Vesuvius

The possibility of intermediate-term earthquake prediction at Mt. Vesuvius by means of the CN algorithm is explored. CN was originally designed to identify the Times of Increased Probability (TIPs) for the occurrence of strong tectonic earthquakes, with magnitude M ≥ M₀, within a region a priori delimited. Here the CN algorithm is applied, for the first time, to the analysis of volcanic seismicity. The earthquakes recorded at Mt. Vesuvius during the period from February 1972 to June 2004 are considered, and the magnitude threshold M₀ selecting the events to be predicted is varied within the range: 3.0–3.3. Satisfactory prediction results are obtained, by retrospective analysis, when a time scaling is introduced. In particular, when the length of the time windows is reduced by a factor 2.5–3, with respect to the standard version of CN algorithm, more than 90% of the events with M ≥ M₀ occur within the TIP intervals, with TIPs occupying about 30% of the total time considered. The control experiment ``Seismic History' demonstrates the stability of the obtained results and indicates that the CN algorithm can be applied to monitor the preparation of impending earthquakes with M ≥ 3.0 at Mt. Vesuvius.     

The instability of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>W</Subscript> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>L</Subscript> comparison for earthquakes in Greece for the period 1969 to 2007

We use 576 earthquakes of magnitude, M _w, 3.3 to 6.8 that occurred within the region 33° N–42.5° N, 19° E–30° E in the time period 1969 to 2007 to investigate the stability of the relation between moment magnitude, M _w, and local magnitude, M _L, for earthquakes in Greece and the surrounding regions. We compare M _w to M _L as reported in the monthly bulletins of the National Observatory of Athens (NOA) and to M _L as reported in the bulletins of the Seismological Station of the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki. All earthquakes have been analyzed through regional or teleseismic waveform inversion, to obtain M _w, and have measured maximum trace amplitudes on the Wood–Anderson seismograph in Athens, which has been in operation since 1964. We show that the Athens Wood–Anderson seismograph performance has changed through time, affecting the computed by NOA M _L by at least 0.1 magnitude units. Specifically, since the beginning of 1996, its east–west component has been recording systematically much larger amplitudes compared to the north–south component. From the comparison between M _w and M _L reported by Thessaloniki, we also show that the performance of the sensors has changed several times through time, affecting the calculated M _L’s. We propose scaling relations to convert the M _L values reported from the two centers to M _w. The procedures followed here can be applied to other regions as well to examine the stability of magnitude calculations through time.     

Disturbance of the ionospheric <Emphasis Type="Italic">D</Emphasis> region by the electric current of the atmospheric-ionospheric electric circuit

The mechanism by which electron and ion densities change in the ionospheric D region due to the electric current flowing in the atmospheric-ionospheric electric circuit is studied. The current disturbance in this circuit exists over the regions of increased seismic, meteorological, and thunderstorm activity. In the framework of the model, the influence of the electron and ion transportation under the action of the electric field on the formation of a disturbance in the D region and heating of the plasma electron component by the field are considered. The calculation results show that the densities of electrons and ions can change by an order of magnitude at an increase in the current density up to ∼(10⁻⁹–10⁻⁸) A m⁻², the sign of the disturbance depending on the current direction.     

Field Survey of Tsunami Effects in Sri Lanka due to the Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake of December 26, 2004

The December 26, 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake that registered a moment magnitude (M_w) of 9.1 was one of the largest earthquakes in the world since 1900. The devastating tsunami that resulted from this earthquake caused more casualties than any previously reported tsunami. The number of fatalities and missing persons in the most seriously affected countries were Indonesia - 167,736, Sri Lanka - 35,322, India - 18,045 and Thailand - 8,212. This paper describes two field visits to assess tsunami effects in Sri Lanka by a combined team of Japanese and Sri Lankan researchers. The first field visit from December 30, 2004 – January 04, 2005 covered the western and southern coasts of Sri Lanka including the cities of Moratuwa, Beruwala, Bentota, Pereliya, Hikkaduwa, Galle, Talpe, Matara, Tangalla and Hambantota. The objectives of the first field visit were to investigate the damage caused by the tsunami and to obtain eyewitness information about wave arrival times. The second field visit from March 10–18, 2005 covered the eastern and southern coasts of Sri Lanka and included Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Arugam Bay, Yala National Park and Kirinda. The objectives of the second visit were mainly to obtain eyewitness information about wave arrival times and inundation data, and to take relevant measurements using GPS instruments.     

The possible changes of tectonic stress fields in North China in 16–17th centuries

The ancient tectonic stress field in North China during 16–17th centuries were recovered by studying seismogenic faults of four great earthquakes. Three of them are dip slip events, the direction of the maximum principal stress is vertical, and that of the minimum principal stress is in the NW—SE direction and nearly horizontal tensile stress. Another earthquake is a complicated one which includes thrust and dip-slip activities. The above-stated character is quite different from that of present stress field, it is inferred that the stress field has significantly changed since 16th century, the main stress axis revolved an angle of 90 degrees nearly. The mantle upheaval in the faulted basins in North China during 16–17th centuries may cause the tensile stress field and a series of great earthquakes. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,14, 144–148, 1992.     

Uncertainties in probability of occurrence of strong earthquakes for fault sources in the Central Apennines,Italy

Using the characteristic earthquake model, we calculate the probability of occurrence of earthquakes M _w > 5.5 for individual fault sources in the Central Apennines for the 30-year period (2007–2037). We show the effect of time-dependent and time-independent occurrence (Brownian passage time (BPT) and Poisson) models together with uncertain slip rates and uncertain maximum magnitudes and, hence, uncertain recurrence times. In order to reduce the large prior geological slip rate uncertainty distribution for most faults, we obtain a posterior slip rate uncertainty distribution using a likelihood function obtained from regional historical seismicity. We assess the uncertainty of maximum magnitude by assuming that the uncertainty in fault width and length are described by a normal distribution with standard deviation equal to ±20% of the mean values. We then estimate the uncertainties of the 30-year probability of occurrence of a characteristic event using a Monte Carlo procedure. Uncertainty on each parameter is represented by the 16th and the 84th percentiles of simulated values. These percentiles bound the range that has a 68% probability of including the real value of the parameter. We do these both for the Poisson case and for the BPT case by varying the aperiodicity parameter (α value) using the values 0.3, 0.5, and 0.7. The Bayesian posterior slip rate uncertainties typically differ by a factor of about 2 from the 16th to the 84th percentile. Occurrence probabilities for the next 30 years at the 84th percentile typically range from 1% to 2% for faults where the Poisson model dominates and from 2% to 21% where one of the BPT models dominates. The uncertainty in occurrence probability under the time-dependent hypothesis is very large, when measured by the ratio of the 84th to the 16th percentile, frequently being as much as two orders of magnitude. On the other hand, when measured by standard deviation, these standard deviations range from 2% to 6% for those faults whose elapsed time since previous event is large, but always 2% or less for faults with relatively recent previous occurrence, because the probability of occurrence is always small.     

Consistent CMT solutions from Harvard University before great earthquakes in Kurile Islands and its significance for earthquake prediction

Introduction In the development of seismic science,the improvement of observational instruments is prone to produce new parameters and promote rapid growth of seismology.For example,after the global digital seismograph network is established,some studies that could not be made or easily made in the past are now being carried out successively.As a result,analytical studies based on digital data have been made one after another and digital seismology has formed.Up to now,Harvard University has …     

Normal faulting mechanisms in the Western Desert of Egypt

Egypt is recognized as a moderate seismicity region where earthquakes are distributed within several active regions. Owing to sparse distribution of both seismicity and seismic stations, mostly moderate-size Egyptian earthquakes were recorded by regional stations. One of such cases is the moderate-size earthquakes of moment magnitudes greater than 4.0 which struck the Western Desert of Egypt in 1998 and 1999. These events are the first instrumentally recorded earthquakes occurring in the area. In the present study, the source mechanism for these earthquakes was estimated using the waveform data recorded from one of the very broadband MedNet seismograph stations and polarities from the national short-period seismographs. An iterative technique was applied to find the best-fit double-couple mechanism by a grid search over strike, dip and rake. Regional synthetic seismograms were calculated by using f–k integration in the frequency range of 0.03–0.1 Hz. A crustal structure fitted to surface wave dispersion curves was used to compute Green’s function. Focal depths were determined through the grid search method for a range of source depths. Our results show a normal faulting mechanism with minor strike-slip component. The NNW trend has been chosen as a preferred rupture plane in consistence with surface and subsurface faults and microearthquake seismicity in the epicenteral area as well.     

Possible precursory accelerated Benioff strain in the region of Sistan Suture Zone of Eastern Iran

We investigated whether accelerated seismic strain release precedes large earthquakes occurring in and around the Sistan Suture Zone, Eastern Iran. Online catalogs of teleseismic events occurring post-1960 within the region 27.0°–37.0°N, 55.0°–65.0°E, report five M _w > 7.0 earthquakes, namely, 1968 Dasht-e-Bayaz, 1978 Tabas, 1979 Khuli-Buniabad, 1981 Sirch and 1997 Zirkuh-e-Q’aenat events. We defined four earthquake test episodes, 1968–1978, 1978–1981, 1979–1981, and 1981–1997, with all catalogued intermediate events having magnitudes within 2.0 units that of the final large event. Using the 1968 event as the starting point, we investigated possible increased moderate earthquake activity patterns prior to the large events of 1978, 1981 and 1997 by examining if the cumulative Benioff strain released from such preceding events followed a power law time-to-failure. Our investigation seem to suggest that the 1978, 1981 and 1997 events (i) followed a period of accelerated moderate earthquake activity and (ii) the radius of their optimal critical region, R, scaled with their magnitude, M, according to the scaling law log R ∝ 0.36 M. Our suggestions conform to those proposed by similar investigations in varied seismotectonic regimes.