The global response to Younger Dryas boundary conditions in an AGCM simulation

 Geological evidence points to a global Younger Dryas (YD) climatic oscillation during the last glacial/ present interglacial transition phase. A convincing mechanism to explain this global YD climatic oscillation is not yet available. Nevertheless, a profound understanding of the mechanism behind the YD climate would lead to a better understanding of climate variability. Therefore, the Hamburg atmospheric circulation model was used to perform four numerical experiments on the YD climate. The objective of this study is to improve the understanding of different forcings influencing climate during the last glacial/interglacial transition and to investigate to what extent the model response agrees with global geological evidence of YD climate change. The following boundary conditions were altered: sea surface conditions, ice sheets, insolation and atmospheric CO₂ concentration. Sea surface temperatures based on foraminiferal assemblages proved to produce insufficient winter cooling in the N Atlantic Ocean in two experiments. It is proposed that this discrepancy is caused by uncertainties in the reconstruction method of sea surface temperatures. Therefore, a model-derived set of Atlantic surface ocean conditions was prescribed in a subsequent simulation. However, the latter set represented an Atlantic Ocean without a thermohaline circulation, which is not in agreement with evidence from ocean cores. The global response to the boundary conditions was analysed using three variables, namely surface temperature, zonal wind speed and precipitation. The statistical significance of the changes was tested with a two-tailed t-test. Moreover, the significant responses to cooled oceans were compared with geological evidence of a YD oscillation. This comparison revealed a good match in Europe, Greenland, Atlantic Canada and the N Pacific region, explaining the YD oscillation in these regions as a response to cooled N Atlantic and N Pacific Oceans. However, the results leave the YD climate in other regions completely unexplained. This reflects either an insufficient set of boundary conditions or the important role played by feedbacks within the coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice system. These feedbacks are poorly represented in the used atmospheric model, since ice sheets and the ocean surface conditions have to be prescribed. Received: 30 July 1996 / Accepted: 12 February 1997     

Modelling the concentration of atmospheric CO2 during the Younger Dryas climate event

 The Younger Dryas (YD, dated between 12.7–11.6 ky BP in the GRIP ice core, Central Greenland) is a distinct cold period in the North Atlantic region during the last deglaciation. A popular, but controversial hypothesis to explain the cooling is a reduction of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) and associated northward heat flux as triggered by glacial meltwater. Recently, a CH₄-based synchronization of GRIP δ¹⁸O and Byrd CO₂ records (West Antarctica) indicated that the concentration of atmospheric CO₂ (CO^atm ₂) rose steadily during the YD, suggesting a minor influence of the THC on CO^atm ₂ at that time. Here we show that the CO^atm ₂ change in a zonally averaged, circulation-biogeochemistry ocean model when THC is collapsed by freshwater flux anomaly is consistent with the Byrd record. Cooling in the North Atlantic has a small effect on CO^atm ₂ in this model, because it is spatially limited and compensated by far-field changes such as a warming in the Southern Ocean. The modelled Southern Ocean warming is in agreement with the anti-phase evolution of isotopic temperature records from GRIP (Northern Hemisphere) and from Byrd and Vostok (East Antarctica) during the YD. δ¹³C depletion and PO₄ enrichment are predicted at depth in the North Atlantic, but not in the Southern Ocean. This could explain a part of the controversy about the intensity of the THC during the YD. Potential weaknesses in our interpretation of the Byrd CO₂ record in terms of THC changes are discussed. Received: 27 May 1998 / Accepted: 5 November 1998     

Climatic and limnological changes associated with the Younger Dryas in Atlantic Canada

Pollen, diatom and chironomid fossils from the sediments of a core from Brier Island Bog Lake, Nova Scotia were studied in an attempt to relate changes in microfossil composition to a climatic cooling in Atlantic Canada correlative with the European Younger Dryas ca. 10 to 11 ka. Our paleolimnological data were then compared to similar types of data from Splan Pond, New Brunswick to determine if there were any significant differences between a coastal and a more inland site. Nonarboreal pollen was dominant throughout the Brier Island core and the interval 10.0–11.0 ka did not show the typical decline in Picea and increases in tundra-like vegetation characteristic of many sites in Atlantic Canada. However, the limnological indicators did undergo marked changes in taxon composition. The chironomid assemblage was initially dominated by shallow-water, warm-adapted chironomid taxa followed by abundant Sergentia (a cold stenotherm) during 10–11 ka. Sergentia disappeared in the post Younger Dryas interval and the warm-adapted genera resumed dominance. Chironomid-inferred paleotemperature reconstructions revealed that at both Brier Island Bog Lake and Splan Pond, summer surface-water temperatures dropped abruptly to between 13 and 17°C during the 10–11 ka interval, suggesting that a cooler climate was present in Atlantic Canada correlative with the European Younger Dryas. Diatom assemblage changes during the same period corroborate the occurrence of limnological fluctuations.     

The atmospheric winter circulation during the Younger Dryas stadial in the Atlantic/European sector

The Younger Dryas (YD) stadial signified an interruption of the warming during the transition from the last glacial to the present interglacial. The mechanism responsible for this cooling is still uncertain, so valuable information concerning climate variability can be obtained by numerical simulation of the YD climate. We performed four experiments on the Younger Dryas climate with the Hamburg atmospheric general circulation model. Here we use the results of these experiments, which differed in prescribed boundary conditions, to characterize the atmospheric winter circulation during the YD stadial in the North Atlantic/European sector. The 10 year means of the following variables are presented: sea level pressure, 500 hPa geopotential heights and 200 hPa winds. In addition, we used daily values to calculate an index to assess the occurrence of blocking and strong zonal flow and to compute storm tracks. Our results show that the YD cooling in Europe was present with a strong and stable westerly circulation without blocking. This is in conflict with an earlier study suggesting frequent easterly winds over NW-Europe. In our experiments the sea-ice cover in the North Atlantic Ocean was the crucial factor forcing this specific YD circulation. Moreover, the jet stream over the North Atlantic was strengthened considerably, causing an enhanced cyclonic activity over the Eurasian continent. The YD winter circulation was different from the circulation found in most simulation studies on the Last Glacial Maximum, since no glacial anticyclones were present and no split of the jet stream occurred. Received: 1 November 1995 / Accepted: 29 May 1996     

新仙女木事件及全新世早中期降温事件--来自洱海湖泊沉积的记录

利用洱海采得的沉积岩芯（EH孔）总有机碳（TOC）指标,分析了洱海流域13 ka cal BP以来的3次降温事件（新仙女木、9.4 ka cal BP和5.8 ka cal BP）,并和青海湖岩芯、古里雅冰芯进行了对比。结果表明：洱海对冷事件的响应时间比青海湖略晚,强度略弱,其原因主要与地理位置和青藏高原的阻挡有关;但古里雅冰芯中8.2 ka cal BP的显著冷事件在洱海和青海湖并无反映。对洱海TOC指标进行功率谱分析,表明存在3种千年尺度的气候变化周期：5 ka、2.3 ka和1.5 ka,显示了对亚轨道周期的响应。     

新仙女木事件及全新世早中期降温事件——来自洱海湖泊沉积的记录

Three cold events (the Younger Dryas, 9.4 ka cal BP, 5.8 ka cal BP) since the 13 ka cal BP in Erhai (EH) Lake catchment, Yunnan Province, were analyzed using the Total Organic Carbon (TOC) series of the EH core. By comparison of the EH core, Qinghai Lake core and Guliya ice core, differences of these cold events were determined. Erhai Lake's responses to the global cold events were lagged in time and weakened in intensity in comparison with Qinghai Lake's. The latitude location of Erhai Lake and the obstruction of Tibetan Plateau may in part explain the differences. However, the remarkable cold event of 8.2 ka cal BP in the Guliya ice core was absent in the records of Erhai Lake and Qinghai Lake. Power spectrum analysis of the TOC proxy series shows that there were three kinds of millennial cycles, i.e. 5 ka, 2.3 ka, and 1.5 ka, in climate changes in Erhai Lake, which reveal the responses of climate to suborbit cycles.     

Evaluation of Surface Air Temperature Change over China and the Globe during the Twentieth Century in IAP AGCM4.0

Based on time series and linear trend analysis, the authors evaluated the performance of the fourth generation atmospheric general circulation model developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP AGCM4.0), in simulating surface air temperature (SAT) during the twentieth century over China and the globe. The numerical experiment is conducted by driving the model with the observed sea surface temperature and sea ice. It is shown that IAP AGCM4.0 can simulate the warming trend of the global SAT, with the major warming regions in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere. While the simulated trend over the whole globe is close to the observation, the model under-estimates the observed trend over the continents. More-over, the model simulates the spatial distribution of SAT in China, with a bias of approximately-2°C in eastern China, but with a more serious bias in western China. Compared with the global mean, however, the correlation coefficient between the simulation and observation in China is significantly lower, indicating that there is large uncertainty in simulating regional climate change.     

Arctic Oscillation and Antarctic Oscillation in Internal Atmospheric Variability with an Ensemble AGCM Simulation

In this study, we investigated the features of Arctic Oscillation （AO） and Antarctic Oscillation （AAO）, that is, the annular modes in the extratropics, in the internal atmospheric variability attained through an ensemble of integrations by an atmospheric general circulation model （AGCM） forced with the global observed SSTs. We focused on the interannual variability of AO/AAO, which is dominated by internal atmospheric variability. In comparison with previous observed results, the AO/AAO in internal atmospheric variability bear some similar characteristics, but exhibit a much clearer spatial structure： significant correlation between the North Pacific and North Atlantic centers of action, much stronger and more significant associated precipitation anomalies, and the meridional displacement of upper-tropospheric westerly jet streams in the Northern/Southern Hemisphere. In addition, we examined the relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation （NAO）/AO and East Asian winter monsoon （EAWM）. It has been shown that in the internal atmospheric variability, the EAWM variation is significantly related to the NAO through upper-tropospheric atmospheric teleconnection patterns.     

IOD influence on the early winter tibetan plateau snow cover: diagnostic analyses and an AGCM simulation

Using diagnostic analyses and an AGCM simulation, the detailed mechanism of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) influence on the early winter Tibetan Plateau snow cover (EWTPSC) is clarified. In early winter of pure positive IOD years with no co-occurrence of El Ni?o, the anomalous dipole diabatic heating over the tropical Indian Ocean excites the baroclinic response in the tropics. Since both baroclinic and barotropic components of the basic zonal wind over the Arabian Peninsula increase dramatically in early winter due to the equatorward retreat of the westerly jet, the baroclinic mode excites the barotropic Rossby wave that propagates northeastward and induces a barotropic cyclonic anomaly north of India. This enables the moisture transport cyclonically from the northern Indian Ocean toward the Tibetan Plateau. The convergence of moisture over the plateau explains the positive influence of IOD on the EWTPSC. In contrast, the basic zonal wind over the Arabian Peninsula is weak in autumn. This is not favorable for excitation of the barotropic Rossby wave and teleconnection, even though the IOD-related diabatic heating anomaly in autumn similar to that in early winter exists. This result explains the insignificant (significant positive) partial correlation between IOD and the autumn (early winter) Tibetan Plateau snow cover after excluding the influence of ENSO. The sensitivity experiment forced by the IOD-related SST anomaly within the tropical Indian Ocean well reproduces the baroclinic response in the tropics, the teleconnection from the Arabian Peninsula, and the increased moisture supply to the Tibetan Plateau. Also, the seasonality of the atmospheric response to the IOD is simulated.     

The impact of cold North Atlantic sea surface temperatures on climate: implications for the Younger Dryas cooling (11–10 k)

The sensitivity of global climate to colder North Atlantic sea surface temperatures is in vestigated with the use of the GISS general circulation model. North Atlantic ocean temperatures 18,000 B.P., resembling those prevalent during the Younger Dryas, were incorporated into the model of the present climate and also into an experiment using orbital parameters and land ice characteristic of 11,000 B.P. The results show that with both 11,000 B.P. and present conditions the colder ocean temperatures produce cooling over western and central Europe, in good agreement with Younger Dryas paleoclimatic evidence. Cooling also occurs over extreme eastern North America, although the precise magnitude and location depends upon the specification of ocean temperature change in the western Atlantic. Despite the presence of increased land ice and colder ocean temperatures, the Younger Dryas summer air temperatures at Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes in the model are warmer than those of today due to changes in the orbital parameters, chiefly precession, and atmospheric subsidence at the perimeter of the ice sheets.     

Variation of surface temperature during the last millennium in a simulation with the FGOALS-gl climate system model

A reasonable past millennial climate simulation relies heavily on the specified external forcings, including both natural and anthropogenic forcing agents. In this paper, we examine the surface temperature responses to specified external forcing agents in a millennium-scale transient climate simulation with the fast version of LASG IAP Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model (FGOALS-gl) developed in the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics (LASG/IAP). The model presents a reasonable performance in comparison with reconstructions of surface temperature. Differentiated from significant changes in the 20th century at the global scale, changes during the natural-forcing-dominant period are mainly manifested in the Northern Hemisphere. Seasonally, modeled significant changes are more pronounced during the wintertime at higher latitudes. This may be a manifestation of polar amplification associated with sea-ice-temperature positive feedback. The climate responses to total external forcings can explain about half of the climate variance during the whole millennium period, especially at decadal timescales. Surface temperature in the Antarctic shows heterogeneous and insignificant changes during the preindustrial period and the climate response to external forcings is undetectable due to the strong internal variability. The model response to specified external forcings is modulated by cloud radiative forcing (CRF). The CRF acts against the fluctuations of external forcings. Effects of clouds are manifested in shortwave radiation by changes in cloud water during the natural-forcing-dominant period, but mainly in longwave radiation by a decrease in cloud amount in the anthropogenic-forcing-dominant period.     

High-resolution simulations of the last glacial maximum climate over Europe: a solution to discrepancies with continental palaeoclimatic reconstructions?

The analyses of low-resolution models simulations of the last glacial maximum (LGM, 21 kyr BP) climate have revealed a large discrepancy between all the models and pollen-based palaeoclimatic reconstructions. In general, the models are too warm relative to the observations, especially in winter, where the difference is of the order of 10°C over western Europe. One of the causes of this discrepancy may be related to the low spatial resolution of these models. To assess the impact of using high-resolution models on simulated climate sensitivity, we use three approaches to obtain high-resolution climate simulations over Europe: first an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) with a stretched grid over Europe, second a homogeneous T106 AGCM (high resolution everywhere on the globe) and last a limited area model (LAM) nested in a low-resolution AGCM. With all three methods, we have performed simulations of the European climate for present and LGM conditions, according to the experimental design recommended by the Palaeoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). Model results have been compared with updated pollen-based palaeoclimatic indicators for temperature and precipitation that were initially developed in PMIP. For each model, a low-resolution global run was also performed. As expected, the low-resolution simulations underestimate the large cooling indicated by pollen data, especially in winter, despite revised slightly warmer reconstructions of the temperatures of the coldest month, and show results in the range of those obtained in PMIP with similar models. The two high-resolution AGCMs do not improve the temperature field and cannot account for the discrepancy between model results and data, especially in winter. However, they are able to reproduce trends in precipitation more closely than their low-resolution counterparts do, but the simulated climates are still not as arid as depicted by the data. Conversely, the LAM temperature results compare well with climate reconstructions in winter but the simulated hydrological cycle is not consistent with the data. Finally, these results are discussed in regard of other possible causes for discrepancies between models and palaeoclimatic reconstructions for the LGM European climate.     

IAP AGCM中短波辐射方案的改进研究I·引入Fu-Liou短波辐射方案

冰云和水云对短波辐射性质(消光系数、单次散射反照率及不对称因子)的影响很不相同,应分别计算。Fu-Liou短波辐射方案(以下称Fu-Liou code)就是对冰云和水云分别采用了不同的参数化方案,云的短波辐射性质直接由云的物理性质来确定。因此,Fu-Liou code在云的处理方面物理意义更清晰且很合理。作者将Fu-Liou code引入IAP AGCM-II中,称为Version 2。对当代气候场的模拟结果表明,Version 2的各个物理过程是协调匹配的,且其对气候场的模拟性能是好的,从而为进一步改进IAP AGCM的短波辐射方案提供了很好的模式基础。     

Surface temperature control in the North and tropical Pacific during the last glacial maximum

Based on coupled modelling evidence we argue that topographically-induced modifications of the large-scale atmospheric circulation during the last glacial maximum may have led to a reduction of the westerlies, and a slowdown of the Pacific subtropical gyre as well as to an intensification of the Pacific subtropical cell. These oceanic circulation changes generate an eastern North Pacific warming, an associated cooling in the Kuroshio area, as well as a cooling of the tropical oceans, respectively. The tropical cooling pattern resembles a permanent La Niña state which in turn forces atmospheric teleconnection patterns that lead to an enhancement of the subtropical warming by reduced latent and sensible cooling of the ocean. In addition, the radiative cooling due to atmospheric CO₂ and water vapor reductions imposes a cooling tendency in the tropics and subtropics, thereby intensifying the permanent La Niña conditions. The remote North Pacific response results in a warming tendency of the eastern North Pacific which may level off the effect of the local radiative cooling. Hence, a delicate balance between oceanic circulation changes, remotely induced atmospheric flux anomalies as well local radiative cooling is established which controls the tropical and North Pacific temperature anomalies during the last glacial maximum. Furthermore, we discuss how the aftermath of a Heinrich event may have affected glacial temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.     

IAP AGCM模式对地面气温长期趋势的预报分析

分析了1979～2004年共26年中国台站地面气温的观测资料以及中国科学院大气物理研究所的大气环流模式IAP AGCM在夏季和冬季的季节集合预报结果对地面气温长期变化趋势的预报.分析结果表明,在所研究的26年中,中国大部分地区是一个增温的趋势,其中冬季增温比夏季增温显著.IAP AGCM集合预报不能很好地预报出观测资料...     

Spatial gradient of temperature and potential vegetation feedback across Europe during the late Quaternary

After the last glacial maximum (LGM; 18,000 years. bp) plants migrated onto areas made free by the retreating ice sheets. Pollen records document changes in ecosystems and are an important proxy for the reconstruction of climate parameters. Here, we quantify changes in January temperature (Tjan) over the past 14,000 years using 216 European pollen records. We used functional principal component analysis to evaluate the patterns of change over this period of time. Between 14 and 12 ka, Tjan records show comparable changes across Europe. After this time period, northwest and southeast Europe experienced differing trends in Tjan, trends that became pronounced by 9 ka. The spatial gradient of Tjan records is well-correlated with the overall change from steppe to increasingly diverse forest ecosystems. In particular, differential incorporation of conifer vs. deciduous species into forest ecosystems, based on differential colonization out of refugia, likely resulted in albedo gradients over Europe that affected regional Tjan.     

Numerical Simulation of Global Temperature Change during the 20th Century with the IAP／LASG GOALS Model

The IAP/LASG GOALS coupled model is used to simulate the climate change during the 20th century using historical greenhouse gases concentrations, the mass mixing ratio of sulfate aerosols simulated by a CTM model, and reconstruction of solar variability spanning the period 1900 to 1997. Four simulations, including a control simulation and three forcing simulations, are conducted. Comparison with the observational record for the period indicates that the three forcing experiments simulate reasonable temporal and spatial distributions of the temperature change. The global warming during the 20th century is caused mainly by increasing greenhouse gas concentration especially since the late 1980s; sulfate aerosols offset a portion of the global warming and the reduction of global temperature is up to about 0.11℃ over the century; additionally, the effect of solar variability is not negligible in the simulation of climate change over the 20th century.     

Surface air temperature in the Canadian Arctic: scaling and pattern change

We analyze minimum and maximum daily temperature records from weather stations situated in the Canadian Arctic area and investigate scaling properties and their change over time. Detrended fluctuation analysis is applied to the entire available records, as well as to successive non-overlapping temporal windows. Scaling is found for intervals of 1–2?months to 5–8?years, with most exponents in the range 0.70?±?0.05. Exponents are subject to temporal change that is found significant when compared with 95?% confidence intervals. Patterns of change are shared by groups of stations in spite of the distances separating their locations. Defining regions characterized by similar patterns of change may be possible, but such a classification should not be expected to be constant: region boundaries shift over time.     

Stable isotope (O and C) and pollen trends in eastern Lake Erie,evidence for a locally-induced climatic reversal of Younger Dryas age in the Great Lakes basin

A cool period from about 11000 to 10 500 BP (11 to 10.5 ka) is recognized in pollen records from the southern Great Lakes area by the return of Picea and Abies dominance and by the persistence of herbs. The area of cooling appears centred on the Upper Great Lakes. A high-resolution record (ca. 9 mm/y) from a borehole in eastern Lake Erie reveals, in the same time interval, this pollen anomaly, isotope evidence of meltwater presence (a — 3 per mil shift in ¹⁸O and a +1.1 per mil shift in ¹³C), increased sand, and reduced detrital calcite content, all suggesting concurrent cooling of Lake Erie. The onset of cooling is mainly attributed to the effect of enhanced meltwater inflow on the relatively large upstream Main Lake Algonquin during the first eastward discharge of glacial Lake Agassiz. Termination of the cooling coincides with drainage of Lake Algonquin, and is attributed to loss of its cooling effectiveness associated with a substantial reduction in its surface area. It is hypothesized that the cold extra inflow effectively prolonged the seasonal presence of lake ice and the period of spring overturn in Lake Algonquin. The deep mixing would have greatly increased the thermal conductive capacity of this extensive lake, causing suppression of summer surface lakewater temperatures and reduction of onshore growing-degree days. Alternatively, a rapid flow of meltwater, buoyed on sediment-charged (denser) lakewater, may have kept the lake surface cold in summer. Other factors such as wind-shifted pollen deposition and possible effects from the Younger Dryas North Atlantic cooling could have contributed to the Great Lakes climatic reversal, but further studies are needed to resolve their relative significance.Contribution to Climo Locarno — Past and Present Climate Dynamics; Conference September 1990, Swiss Academy of Sciences — National Climate ProgramGeological Survey of Canada Contribution 58 890