A Modified Weights-of-Evidence Method for Regional Mineral Resource Estimation

Weights-of-evidence (WofE) modeling and weighted logistic regression (WLR) are two methods of regional mineral resource estimation, which are closely related: For example, if all the map layers selected for further analysis are binary and conditionally independent of the mineral occurrences, expected WofE contrast parameters are equal to WLR coefficients except for the constant term that depends on unit area size. Although a good WofE strategy is supposed to achieve approximate conditional independence, a common problem is that the final estimated probabilities are biased. If there are N deposits in a study area and the sum of all estimated probabilities is written as S, then WofE generally results in S > N. The difference S − N can be tested for statistical significance. Although WLR yields S = N, WLR coefficients generally have relatively large variances. Recently, several methods have been developed to obtain WofE weights that either result in S = N, or become approximately unbiased. A method that has not been applied before consists of first performing WofE modeling and following this by WLR applied to the weights. This method results in modified weights with unbiased probabilities satisfying S = N. An additional advantage of this approach is that it automatically copes with missing data on some layers because weights of unit areas with missing data can be set equal to zero as is generally practiced in WofE applications. Some practical examples of application are provided.     

Estimating Petroleum Resources Using Geo-Anchored Method--A Sensitivity Study

The Geo-anchored method, based on a moment-type estimator, has been developed for estimating parent population properties from a successive sample of discoveries. By substituting the expectation of the waiting time z _(n+1) of the (n + 1) ^th discovery to occurrence for an unknown parameter in the anchored method, the Geo-anchored method allows estimation of inclusion probabilities directly from observed data, thus eliminating the need for a priori selection of a value of N, R, or some other feature of the parent population. Because direct estimation of N and R requires an ordered sample, the Geo-anchored method is more sensitive to the data-generating process than the anchored method. This paper presents a sensitivity study on the Geo-anchored method. The test is based on simulated discovery sequences with different assumptions regarding discovery efficiency, exploration maturity, and the shape of the parent field size distribution. As a reference for comparison, estimates from the Horvitz–Thompson estimator also are presented.     

Organo-geochemical and stable isotope indicators ofenvironmental change in a marl lake, Malham Tarn, North Yorkshire,U.K.

Sediments of the marl lake Malham Tarn located in NW Englandpreserve an environmental record since 12 Ka. Eight Holocene pollen zones wereidentified, and the ¹³C of total organic carbon (TOC) showsthree stratigraphic divisions. The basal clay unit and overlayingsand/clay/marl unit have ¹³C of –24which decreases at the base of the principal marl unit to a mean value around–30, whilst the topmost black marl unit ¹³Cincreases to –28 at the surface. Representative samples of theseunits were selected for analysis of n-alkanes andn-fatty acids and their ¹³C.Samples of modern Chara and peat were analysed forcomparison. The clay unit has a minor contribution of redeposited matureorganic matter and autochthonous algae, the marl unit a high contribution ofChara, and the dark marl unit has a high contribution fromhigher plants. Compound-specific ¹³C revealssystematic differences between alkanes and fatty acids of different chainlength. The major shift in ¹³C in the short and medium chainfatty acids are probably due to the decreasing influence of carbonate rockflour as source of DIC. The major shift in ¹³C in the longchain n-fatty acids andn-alkanes could reflect the lower atmosphericCO₂ concentration at Last Glacial. The negative shift of short chainfatty acids in organic rich dark marls reflects introduction of detrital peatinto the lake. The ¹³C results show a dramatic change fromdominance of autochthonous plus eroded sources up to Pollen Zone IV, then slowcolonisation of the hinterland by higher plants, followed by constantChara contributions throughout the deposition of the marl,and a further increase of higher plant material after the rise in water levelin 1791.     

Using logistic regression to merge mineral resource databases

The purpose of this project was to develop and test a methodology for determining the likelihood that mineral resource location records from two nationwide mineral resource information databases represent the same site. The long-term goal is to create a comprehensive database by merging the Mineral Resource Data System (MRDS) of the U.S. Geological Survey, and the Mineral Availability System/Mineral Industry Location System (MAS/MILS) of the U.S. Bureau of Mines (now part of the Geological Survey). Part of that process involves linking records for the same site from each database. Match probabilities were estimated using a logistic regression of mineral resource location attributes, derived from known matched (cross-referenced) and known unmatched randomly sampled mineral site pairs from within the conterminous United States (n=10,000). Model accuracy was assessed using a randomly sampled test dataset, not used in logistic model development (n=4,000). Probability distributions were similar between the development and test datasets. The overall agreement beyond chance was good for the test data set using the kappa statistic. Classification accuracy was 89.6% for known matched site pairs and 84.0% for known unmatched site pairs based on a probability threshold of 0.50 for a match. Distributions of attributes were similar between the development and test datasets. This classification method is a viable approach for estimating match probabilities between database records.     

Stable carbon isotope ratios in lake and swamp sediments as a proxy for prehistoric forest clearance and crop cultivation in the Neotropics

Close correspondence between stable carbon isotope ratios ( ¹³ C), pollen, and charcoal profiles in sediment cores from Laguna Zoncho and Machita swamp, Costa Rica, shows that prehistoric forest clearance and crop cultivation can be detected in the stable carbon isotope ratios of total organic carbon ( ¹3C _TOC ). Analyses of δ 13C _TOC complement evidence from pollen, charcoal, and phytoliths and provide a proxy that is sensitive to the intensity and/or proximity to core sites of prehistoric forest clearance and agriculture in watersheds. Stable carbon isotope analyses are particularly useful in situations in which other evidence of forest clearance and agriculture is limited.     

Knowledge-Driven and Data-Driven Fuzzy Models for Predictive Mineral Potential Mapping

In this paper, we describe new fuzzy models for predictive mineral potential mapping: (1) a knowledge-driven fuzzy model that uses a logistic membership function for deriving fuzzy membership values of input evidential maps and (2) a data-driven model, which uses a piecewise linear function based on quantified spatial associations between a set of evidential evidence features and a set of known mineral deposits for deriving fuzzy membership values of input evidential maps. We also describe a graphical defuzzification procedure for the interpretation of output fuzzy favorability maps. The models are demonstrated for mapping base metal deposit potential in an area in the south-central part of the Aravalli metallogenic province in the state of Rajasthan, western India. The data-driven and knowledge-driven models described in this paper predict potentially mineralized zones, which occupy less than 10% of the study area and contain at least 83% of the model and validation base metal deposits. A cross-validation of the favorability map derived from using one of the models with the favorability map derived from using the other model indicates a remarkable similarity in their results. Both models therefore are useful for predicting favorable zones to guide further exploration work.     

Evaluation of Horner plot-corrected log-derived temperatures in the Danish Central Graben,North Sea

A small dataset comprising all temperature available data from reliable Horner plots from the Danish Central Graben was examined. Temperatures obtained by extrapolation using standard Horner plots were determined to be lower than true formation temperatures, as interpreted from DST data. Excellent agreement between true formation temperatures and Horner plot temperatures was achieved when the Horner plot temperatures (T_HP) were corrected upward by an amount proportional to the slope (A) of the Horner plot using the equation where the temperatures and the slope are in degrees Celsius. The standard deviation of the error in the corrected Horner plot temperatures was 2.1°C, indicating that this method is consistent. Further studies using larger numbers of Horner plots from a variety of geographic areas should be carried out to test and refine the hypotheses presented here. Efforts also should be made to understand the causes of variability in slopes of Horner plots.     

Estimating and simulating the degree of serpentinization of peridotites using hyperspectral remotely sensed imagery

The mineral products resulting from the process of serpentinization, by which primary magnesium silicate minerals in peridotites are replaced by hydrous serpentine-group minerals, are of economic importance since Alpine-type peridotites are the host rocks for virtually all large asbestos deposits, which may be attributed mainly to the serpentine-group mineral chrysotile. Conventional field mapping of the distribution of highly serpentinized areas is time consuming and requires detailed sampling and laboratory analysis. In 0.4- to 2.5-m reflectance spectra of serpentinized peridotites, serpentinization is responsible for a decrease in contrast of olivine-pyroxene iron absorption features and an appearance and increase in OH^– absorption features near 1.4 m and 2.3 m associated with serpentine minerals. The degree of serpentinization is positively correlated with the depth of the 1.4-m and 2.3-m absorption features for samples containing more than 55 weight percent serpentine minerals. Small amounts of magnetite in a sample obscure the spectral contrast and decrease the overall brightness of weakly serpentinized samples. A methodology is used for mapping serpentine minerals in ultrabasic rocks from imaging spectrometer data, which includes (1) vegetation masking, (2) calculating the absorption band depth of the 2.3-m absorption feature in unmasked pixels, (3) translating this value into percent serpentine minerals using an empirical linear model, and (4) estimating the degree of serpentinization at the remaining locations using conditional simulation techniques or ordinary block kriging. From the results of this study, it can be concluded that mapping the degree of serpentinization from high-spectral resolution imagery is possible within marginal statistical fluctuations. Conditional simulation reproduces the spatial and statistical variability of the data set; however, it sacrifices the local accuracy. Direct estimation using ordinary kriging provides a better local estimate but does not honor the statistics and spatial dispersion of the original data.The spectral analyses presented in this publication were carried out at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California. The author would like to thank Mrs. Cindy Grove for her help in processing the samples. Dr. Harold Lang is thanked for advice in interpreting the spectra. The article benefitted from critical comments by Dr. Roger Clark and Dr. John Mustard, and various discussions with Prof. Salemon Kroonenberg and Prof. Andrea Fabbri. The Spectral Image Processing System (SIPS) developed at the Center for the Study of Earth from Space (CSES) of the University of Colorado, Boulder, was used for the GERIS data calibration. This article benefitted from a critical review by Dr. Daniel H. Knepper, Jr.     

The Late Pleistocene - Holocene palaeolimnology of Lake Victoria, East Africa, based upon elemental and isotopic analyses of sedimentary organic matter

Three piston cores from Lake Victoria (East Africa) have been analysed for organic carbon (TOC) and nitrogen (TN) content, stable isotopes (¹³C and ¹⁵N), and Hydrogen Index (HI). These data are combined with published biogenic silica and water content analyses to produce a detailed palaeolimnological history of the lake over the past ca. 17.5 ka. Late Pleistocene desiccation produced a lake-wide discontinuity marked by a vertisol. Sediments below the discontinuity are characterised by relatively low TOC and HI values, and high C/N, ¹³C and ¹⁵N, reflecting the combined influence of abundant terrestrial plant material and generally unfavourable conditions for organic matter preservation. A thin muddy interval with lower ¹³C and higher HI and water content indicates that dry conditions were interrupted by a humid period of a few hundred years duration when the lake was at least 35 m deep. The climate changed to significantly more humid conditions around 15.2 ka when the dry lake floor was rapidly flooded. Abundant macrophytic plant debris and high TOC and ¹³C values at the upper vertisol surface probably reflect a marginal swamp. ¹³C values decrease abruptly and HI begins to increase around 15 ka BP, marking a shift to deeper-water conditions and algal-dominated lake production. C/N values are relatively low during this period, suggesting a generally adequate supply of nitrogen, but increasing ¹⁵N values reflect intense utilisation of the lake's DIN reservoir, probably due to a dramatic rise in productivity as nutrients were released to the lake from the flooded land surface.An abrupt drop in ¹³C and ¹⁵N values around 13.8-13.6 ka reflects a period of deep mixing. Productivity increased due to more efficient nutrient recycling, and ¹³C values fell as ¹²C-rich CO₂ released by bacterial decomposition of the organic material was brought into the epilimnion. A weak drop in HI values suggests greater oxygen supply to the hypolimnion at this time. Better mixing was probably due to increased wind intensity and may mark the onset of the Younger Dryas in the region.After the period of deep mixing, the water column became more stable. TOC, C/N, ¹³C and HI values were at a maximum during the period between 10 and 4 ka, when the lake probably had a stratified water column with anoxic bottom waters. A gradual decrease in values over the last 4000 yrs suggest a change to a more seasonal climate, with periodic mixing of the water column. Rising sediment accumulation rates and a trend to more uniform surface water conditions over the last 2000 yrs are probably a result of increased anthropogenic impact on the lake and its catchment.Following a maximum at the time of the rapid lake-level rise during the terminal Pleistocene, ¹⁵N has remained relatively low and displays a gradual but consistent trend to lower values from the end of the Pleistocene to the present. TN values have risen during the same period. The lack of correlation between ¹³C and ¹⁵N, and the absence of any evidence for isotopic reservoir effects despite the rise in TN, suggests that the atmosphere, rather than the lake's dissolved nitrogen pool has been the principal source of nitrogen throughout the Holocene. The importance of atmospheric N fixation to Lake Victoria's nitrogen cycle thus predates by a very considerable margin any possible anthropogenic eutrophication of the lake.     

A Hybrid Fuzzy Weights-of-Evidence Model for Mineral Potential Mapping

This paper describes a hybrid fuzzy weights-of-evidence (WofE) model for mineral potential mapping that generates fuzzy predictor patterns based on (a) knowledge-based fuzzy membership values and (b) data-based conditional probabilities. The fuzzy membership values are calculated using a knowledge-driven logistic membership function, which provides a framework for treating systemic uncertainty and also facilitates the use of multiclass predictor maps in the modeling procedure. The fuzzy predictor patterns are combined using Bayes’ rule in a log-linear form (under an assumption of conditional independence) to update the prior probability of target deposit-type occurrence in every unique combination of predictor patterns. The hybrid fuzzy WofE model is applied to a regional-scale mapping of base-metal deposit potential in the south-central part of the Aravalli metallogenic province (western India). The output map of fuzzy posterior probabilities of base-metal deposit occurrence is classified subsequently to delineate zones with high-favorability, moderate favorability, and low-favorability for occurrence of base-metal deposits. An analysis of the favorability map indicates (a) significant improvement of probability of base-metal deposit occurrence in the high-favorability and moderate-favorability zones and (b) significant deterioration of probability of base-metal deposit occurrence in the low-favorability zones. The results demonstrate usefulness of the hybrid fuzzy WofE model in representation and in integration of evidential features to map relative potential for mineral deposit occurrence.     

Seasonal variation in stable oxygen and carbon isotope values recovered from modern lacustrine freshwater mollusks: paleoclimatological implications for sub-weekly temperature records

A fingernail clam (Sphaerium simile, Sphaeriidae) from Science Lake, a small watershed located in Allegany State Park, New York, USA and a zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha, Dreissenidae) from Keuka Lake, New York, the third largest Finger Lake of central New York, were selected to evaluate the applicability of using ¹⁸O_(CaCO3) and ¹³O_(CaCO3) values for sub-weekly climate records. Seasonal variation in ¹⁸O_(CaCO3) values was compared with predicted equilibrium values to test the hypothesis that lacustrine molluscs produce shell aragonite according to environmental variables. For the purpose of comparison, aragonite temperature-fractionation equations determined by Grossman& Ku (1986) and Patterson et al. (1993) were used. Sphaerium simile appears to produce ¹⁸O_(CaCO3) values predicted by Patterson et al. (1993), while Dreissena polymorpha produces ¹⁸O_(CaCO3) values in agreement with Grossman & Ku (1986). We attribute the difference to family-specific temperature-fractionation relationships. Because both types of mollusc record climate variables with a high degree of integrity, they should each serve as excellent paleoclimate proxies.The fingernail clam collected from a small watershed exhibits higher variation about the seasonal pattern than did the zebra mussel collected from a large watershed. This is attributed to the increased sensitivity of the small watershed to storm perturbation. Analysis of fossil molluscs from such watersheds might be useful in discerning paleo-storminess.     

Correction of Single Log-Derived Temperatures in the Danish Central Graben,North Sea

An equation for correcting log-derived temperatures measured at well depths between 1200 and 5400 m has been derived by comparing log-derived temperatures from wells in the Danish Central Graben (North Sea) with DST temperatures, from the same wells, that are believed to represent true formation temperatures. Equations developed previously using data over different depth ranges from Malaysia and Mexico yield fair results when applied to the North Sea. However, a better fit to the Danish data was obtained using new equations that are similar to those published in the earlier studies. The correction method here is based principally on time since end of circulation (TSC), but it also includes a small dependence on depth. In this study the true subsurface temperature (T_true) (°C) is given by where the correction factor f = 3.07·TSC^(–0.09)/(0.47·Z^(0.175)), T_surf is the seafloor temperature in °C, T_meas is the measured log temperature in °C, TSC is in hours, and Z is the depth below seafloor in meters. When TSC is not known, maximum probable, minimum probable, and most likely values can be estimated from the observed trend of TSC with depth.An estimate of the uncertainty in the corrected temperature can be obtained from the equation where is the standard deviation of the error in the correction factor f. This approach can be modified to include the additional uncertainty associated with unspecified TSC.     

Rapid Holocene hydrologic change along boreal treeline revealed by δ13C and δ18O in organic lake sediments, Northwest Territories, Canada

Analysis of ¹⁸O_cellulose, ¹³C_{organic matter}, and ¹³C_cellulose at about 100 year intervals from organic matter deposited in Toronto Lake, Northwest Territories, Canada, revealed an 8000-year history of rapid, post-glacial hydrologic change at the treeline zone. Several mid-Holocene phases of enriched ¹³C_org and ¹³C_cell, caused by elevated lake productivity, declining [CO_2(aq)], and closed basin conditions, were abruptly terminated by intervals of open hydrology recorded by sharply depleted ¹⁸O_cell. Two of these events, at 5000 and 4500 BP, are correlated with increased total organic content and Picea mariana pollen concentration, which indicate that high levels of productivity were also accompanied by northern treeline advances. A third treeline advance at about 2500 BP is also marked by an apparent outflow event from Toronto Lake, but this was not associated with ¹³C_org/cell enrichment in the sediment record because rapid and substantial lake water renewal probably prevented productivity-driven enrichment of the dissolved inorganic carbon and replenished the CO_2(aq) supply to thriving phytoplankton. However, high sediment organic content during this period suggests increased productivity. Increases in the inflow:evaporation ratio at about 6500 and 3500 BP were also sufficient to cause Toronto Lake to overflow but the prevailing climate during these periods apparently did not favour appreciable northward treeline migration or changes in lake productivity.This is the 14th in a series of papers published in this special AMQUA issue. These papers were presented at the 1994 meeting of the American Quaternary Association held 19–22 June, 1994, at the University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA. Dr Linda C. K. Shane served as guest editor for these papers     

A Late glacial and Holocene diatom record from Clettnadal, Shetland Islands, northern Scotland

The study was undertaken as part of a wider palaeoecological investigation of Late glacial and Holocene lake sediments from a site on the exposed Atlantic coast of the Shetland Islands. The diatom data presented here define a sequence of assemblages, commencing at c. 15.8 cal ka BP, which reflects lithological variation in the section, in particular the Late glacial alternation of minerogenic and more organic horizons. Cliff retreat caused drainage of the lake sometime after c. 4.0 cal ka BP. Almost all taxa recorded are small benthic and tychoplanktonic diatoms: Fragilaria (sensu lato), Achnanthes (s.l.) and some Navicula spp. predominate in the Late glacial. Different benthos become dominant in the Holocene, but no plankton developed. Stauroforma was the commonest genus present, and results indicate a relationship between the occurrence of two types, Stauroforma A and Stauroforma B, and the severity of prevailing environmental conditions. The lithology and associated assemblages suggest a sequence including the classic north European Bølling and Allerød' warmer periods, followed by the Loch Lomond Stadial. Subsequently, the temporal diatom succession resembles the pattern described in modern linear transects across the circumpolar treeline in north America and Asia, both in type of assemblage and some dominant species.     

Response to ‘Comments on “Combining spatial transition probabilities for stochastic simulation of categorical fields” with communications on some issues related to Markov chain geostatistics’

Li and Zhang (2012b Li, W. and Zhang, C. 2012b. Comments on ‘Combining spatial transition probabilities for stochastic simulation of categorical fields’ with communications on some issues related to Markov chain geostatistics. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 26(10): 1725–1739. [Taylor & Francis Online] , [Google Scholar], Comments on ‘Combining spatial transition probabilities for stochastic simulation of categorical fields’ with communications on some issues related to Markov chain geostatics) raised a series of comments on our recent paper (Cao, G., Kyriakidis, P.C., and Goodchild, M.F., 2011 Cao, G., Kyriakidis, P.C. and Goodchild, M.F. 2011. Combining spatial transition probabilities for stochastic simulation of categorical fields. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 25(11): 1773–1791. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]. Combining spatial transition probabilities for stochastic simulation of categorical fields. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 25 (11), 1773–1791), which include a notation error in the model equation provided for the Markov chain random field (MCRF) or spatial Markov chain model (SMC), originally proposed by Li (2007b Li, W. 2007b. Markov chain random fields for estimation of categorical variables. Mathematical Geology, 39(3): 321–335. [Crossref] , [Google Scholar], Markov chain random fields for estimation of categorical variables. Mathematical Geology, 39 (3), 321–335), and followed by Allard et al. (2011 Allard, D., D'Or, D. and Froideveaux, R. 2011. An efficient maximum entropy approach for categorical variable prediction. European Journal of Soil Science, 62: 381–393. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], An efficient maximum entropy approach for categorical variable prediction. European Journal of Soil Science, 62, 381–393) about the misinterpretation of MCRF (or SMC) as a simplified form of the Bayesian maximum entropy (BME)-based approach, the so-called Markovian-type categorical prediction (MCP) (Allard, D., D'Or, D., and Froideveaux, R., 2009 Allard, D., D'Or, D. and Froidevaux, R. 2009. Estimating and simulating spatial categorical data using an efficient maximum entropy approach, Avignon: Unité Biostatistique et Processus Spatiaux Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique. Technical Report No. 37 [Google Scholar]. Estimating and simulating spatial categorical data using an efficient maximum entropy approach. Avignon: Unite Biostatisque et Processus Spatiaux Institute National de la Recherche Agronomique. Technical Report No. 37; Allard, D., D'Or, D., and Froideveaux, R., 2011 Allard, D., D'Or, D. and Froideveaux, R. 2011. An efficient maximum entropy approach for categorical variable prediction. European Journal of Soil Science, 62: 381–393. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]. An efficient maximum entropy approach for categorical variable prediction. European Journal of Soil Science, 62, 381–393). Li and Zhang (2012b Li, W. and Zhang, C. 2012b. Comments on ‘Combining spatial transition probabilities for stochastic simulation of categorical fields’ with communications on some issues related to Markov chain geostatistics. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 26(10): 1725–1739. [Taylor & Francis Online] , [Google Scholar], Comments on ‘Combining spatial transition probabilities for stochastic simulation of categorial fields’ with communication on some issues related to Markov chain geostatistics. International Journal of Geographical Information Science) also raised concerns regarding several statements Cao et al. (2011 Cao, G., Kyriakidis, P.C. and Goodchild, M.F. 2011. Combining spatial transition probabilities for stochastic simulation of categorical fields. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 25(11): 1773–1791. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], Combining spatial transition probabilities for stochastic simulation of categorical fields. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 25 (11), 1773–1791) had made, which mainly include connections between permanence of ratios and conditional independence, connections between MCRF and Bayesian networks and transiograms as spatial continuity measures. In this response, all of the comments and concerns will be addressed, while also communicating with Li and other colleagues on general topics in Markov chain geostatistics.     

Diatom paleoecology of Laguna Zoncho,Costa Rica

We analyzed diatoms in a sediment profile from Laguna Zoncho in southern Pacific Costa Rica (lake elevation 1190 m asl, depth 2.6 m, area 0.75 ha) spanning some 3240 cal yr. Diatoms are common in the profile, which we subdivide into three zones. Zone C (3240–1020 cal yr B.P.) is dominated by Staurosira construens var. venter and Aulacoseira spp.; during this time, the lake was dilute and circumneutral. Benthic and acidophilous taxa increase gradually in the upper section of this zone. Zone B (1020–460 cal yr B.P.) almost totally lacks Aulacoseira, and instead is dominated by combinations of Eunotia minor, Encyonema lunatum, Gomphonema gracile, and Pinnularia braunii. Previous pollen and charcoal analysis indicates that this zone falls within the peak of prehistoric agricultural activity at the lake, but diatoms may also reflect climate change. During this period, the lake was likely shallower and more acidic, but not eutrophic. Finally, Zone A (460 cal yr B.P. to AD 1997) begins near a 1.5-cm tephra layer from nearby Volcán Barú; diatom assemblages are dominated by Aulacoseira spp., and suggest deepening of the lake and return to conditions similar to Zone C. This was a time of indigenous population decline and forest recovery in the Zoncho region, probably reflecting the impact of European diseases on the native population, although climate change and impacts of the tephra deposition cannot be wholly discounted.     

The misrepresentation of the planktonic diatom assemblage in traps and sediments: southern Lake Malaŵi,Africa

Sediment trap collections near Cape Maclear, Lake Malai, were compared to phytoplankton and surface sediment diatoms to assess taphonomic variations. The sedimenting diatom community became progressively different from the diatom plankton with increasing depth: long Nitzschia species were strongly under-represented in the traps (annually, 53% among planktonic diatoms vs. 14% in the offshore 29 m trap; p0.005 by Kruskal-Wallis test), while Melosira was greatly over-represented in traps (32% vs. 57%; p<0.005). The abundances of the minor taxa (Rhopalodia, Fragilaria, Cymbella, and Surirella) were greatly enhanced in traps relative to the plankton, but they were still relatively uncommon (<3% of all diatoms each). Differences in grazing, dissolution, and sinking rates alone are insufficient to account for these distortions; a combination of these, plus perhaps unknown factors, strongly influence the deposited assemblage.These misrepresentations were also present at the sediment surface. The greatest discrepancy was noted for Melosira (32% of plankton vs. 53% of sediment surface diatoms; p<0.005) and for elongate Nitzschia species (53% of plankton vs. 0.8% in sediments; p<0.005). In Lake Malai, at least, paleolimnologists must not assume a straightforward correlation of modern and fossil assemblages.     

Pesticide residues in birds at Lake Nakuru,Kenya

Specimens of three species of birds were collected from Lake Nakuru, Kenya, between September and October 1990. Samples of liver, kidney, muscle, fat and brain tissue were removed and analyzed for organochlorine pesticide residues. Fat was extracted and the content of three lindane (BHC/HCH) isomers (, and ), aldrin, heptachlor, heptachlorepoxide, endrin, dieldrin, DDD, DDE and DDT was determined. The samples contained varying residue levels of 12 organochlorine pesticides. No residues of 0, p'-DDD were detected. The most prevalent compounds were DDE and -BHC, found in 95.5 per cent and 66.4 per cent of the samples, respectively. The highest median residue concentration was 207 mg kg^–1×10^–3 of DDE in pelican fat tissue. White pelicanPelecanus onocrotalus, and the white-necked cormorant,Phalacrocorax carbo, showed greater concentrations of organochlorine residues than the lesser flamingo,Phoenicopterus minor. The mean DDE concentrations in pelican liver samples in 1970 and 1990 were 64 mg kg^–1×10^–3 and 274 mg kg^–1×10^–3, respectively. In cormorant liver samples the mean DDE concentration was 15 mg kg^–1×10^–3 in 1970 and 52 mg kg^–1×10^–3 in 1990. The mean DDE concentration in flamingo liver remained more or less similar at 2 mg kg^–1×10^–3 in 1970 and 1990.     

Paleohydrology and paleochemistry of Lake Manitoba,Canada: the isotope and ostracode records

Lake Manitoba, the largest lake in the Prairie region of North America, contains a fine-grained sequence of late Pleistocene and Holocene sediment that documents a complex postglacial history. This record indicates that differential isostatic rebound and changing climate have interacted with varying drainage basin size and hydrologic budget to create significant variations in lake level and limnological conditions. During the initial depositional period in the basin, the Lake Agassiz phase (12–9 ka), ¹⁸O of ostracodes ranged from –16 to –5 (PDB), implying the lake was variously dominated by cold, dilute glacial meltwater and warm to cold, slightly saline water.Candona subtriangulata, which prefers cold, dilute water, dominates the most negative ¹⁸O intervals, when the basin was part of proglacial Lake Agassiz. At times during this early phase, the ¹⁸O of the lake abruptly shifted to higher values; euryhaline taxa such asC. rawsoni orLimnocythere ceriotuberosa, and halobiont taxa such asL. staplini orL. sappaensis are dominant in these intervals. This positive covariance of isotope and ostracode records implies that the lake level episodically fell, isolating the Lake Manitoba basin from the main glacial lake.¹⁸O values from inorganic endogenic Mg-calcite in the post-Agassiz phase of Lake Manitoba trend from –4 at 8 ka to –11 at 4.5 ka. We interpret that this trend indicates a gradually increasing influence of isotopically low (–20 SMOW) Paleozoic groundwater inflow, although periods of increased evaporation during this time may account for zones of less negative isotopic values. The ¹⁸O of this inorganic calcite abruptly shifts to higher values (–6) after 4.5 ka due to the combined effects of increased evaporative enrichment in a closed basin lake and the increased contribution of isotopically high surface water inflow on the hydrologic budget. After 2 ka, the ¹⁸O of the Mg-calcite fluctuates between –13 and –7, implying short-term variability in the lake's hydrologic budget, with values indicating the lake varied from outflow-dominated to evaporation-dominated. The ¹³C values of Mg-calcite remain nearly constant from 8 to 4.5 ka and then trend to higher values upward in the section. This pattern suggests primary productivity in the lake was initially constant but gradually increased after 4.5 ka.This is the sixth in a series of papers published in this issue on the paleolimnology of arid regions. These papers were presented at the Sixth International Palaeolimnology Symposium held 19–21 April, 1993 at the Australian National University, Canberra, Australia. Dr A. R. Chivas served as guest editor for these papers.