Tsunami Modeling to Validate Slip Models of the 2007 M w 8.0 Pisco Earthquake, Central Peru

Following the 2007, August 15th, M _w 8.0, Pisco earthquake in central Peru, Sladen et al. (J Geophys Res 115: B02405, 2010) have derived several slip models of this event. They inverted teleseismic data together with geodetic (InSAR) measurements to look for the co-seismic slip distribution on the fault plane, considering those data sets separately or jointly. But how close to the real slip distribution are those inverted slip models? To answer this crucial question, the authors generated some tsunami records based on their slip models and compared them to DART buoys, tsunami records, and available runup data. Such an approach requires a robust and accurate tsunami model (non-linear, dispersive, accurate bathymetry and topography, etc.) otherwise the differences between the data and the model may be attributed to the slip models themselves, though they arise from an incomplete tsunami simulation. The accuracy of a numerical tsunami simulation strongly depends, among others, on two important constraints: (i) A fine computational grid (and thus the bathymetry and topography data sets used) which is not always available, unfortunately, and (ii) a realistic tsunami propagation model including dispersion. Here, we extend Sladen’s work using newly available data, namely a tide gauge record at Callao (Lima harbor) and the Chilean DART buoy record, while considering a complete set of runup data along with a more realistic tsunami numerical that accounts for dispersion, and also considering a fine-resolution computational grid, which is essential. Through these accurate numerical simulations we infer that the InSAR-based model is in better agreement with the tsunami data, studying the case of the Pisco earthquake indicating that geodetic data seems essential to recover the final co-seismic slip distribution on the rupture plane. Slip models based on teleseismic data are unable to describe the observed tsunami, suggesting that a significant amount of co-seismic slip may have been aseismic. Finally, we compute the runup distribution along the central part of the Peruvian coast to better understand the wave amplification/attenuation processes of the tsunami generated by the Pisco earthquake.     

Twin Tsunamis Triggered by the 12 January 2010 Haiti Earthquake

On 12 January 2010, a magnitude M _w 7.0 earthquake occurred 25 km west–southwest of Haiti’s capital Port-au-Prince causing an estimated 316,000 fatalities, thereby exceeding any previous loss of life from a similar size earthquake. In addition, tsunami waves triggered by the earthquake caused at least three fatalities at Petit Paradis due to a complete lack of tsunami awareness. The International Tsunami Survey Team (ITST) was deployed within weeks of the event and covered the greater Bay of Port-au-Prince and more than 100 km of Hispaniola’s southern coastline. The collected survey data include more than 21 tsunami heights along with observations of coastal land level change. Maximum tsunami heights of 3 m have been measured for two independently triggered tsunamis.     

Field Survey of the March 28, 2005 Nias-Simeulue Earthquake and Tsunami

On the evening of March 28, 2005 at 11:09?p.m. local time (16:09 UTC), a large earthquake occurred offshore of West Sumatra, Indonesia. With a moment magnitude (M _w) of 8.6, the event caused substantial shaking damage and land level changes between Simeulue Island in the north and the Batu Islands in the south. The earthquake also generated a tsunami, which was observed throughout the source region as well as on distant tide gauges. While the tsunami was not as extreme as the tsunami of December 26th, 2004, it did cause significant flooding and damage at some locations. The spatial and temporal proximity of the two events led to a unique set of observational data from the earthquake and tsunami as well as insights relevant to tsunami hazard planning and education efforts.     

Observation and Modeling of the January 2009 West Papua, Indonesia Tsunami

We modeled a tsunami from the West Papua, Indonesia earthquakes on January 3, 2009 (M _w?=?7.7). After the first earthquake, tsunami alerts were issued in Indonesia and Japan. The tsunami was recorded at many stations located in and around the Pacific Ocean. In particular, at Kushimoto on Kii Peninsula, the maximum amplitude was 43?cm, larger than that at Manokwari on New Guinea Island, near the epicenter. The tsunami was recorded on near-shore wave gauges, offshore GPS sensors and deep-sea bottom pressure sensors. We have collected more than 150 records and used 72 stations?? data with clear tsunami signals for the tsunami source modeling. We assumed two fault models (single fault and five subfaults) which are located to cover the aftershock area. The estimated average slip on the single fault model (80?×?40?km) is 0.64?m, which yields a seismic moment of 1.02?×?10²⁰?Nm (M _w?=?7.3). The observed tsunami waveforms at most stations are well explained by this model.     

The July 1998 Papua New Guinea Earthquake: Mechanism and Quantification of Unusual Tsunami Generation

— The unusual tsunami generated by the July 17, 1998 Papua New Guinea earthquake was investigated on the basis of various geophysical observations, including seismological data, tsunami waveform records, and on-land and submarine surveys. The tsunami source models were constructed for seismological high-angle and low-angle faults, splay fault, and submarine slumps. Far-field and near-field tsunamis computed from these models were compared with the recorded waveforms in and around Japan and the measured heights along the coast around Sissano Lagoon, respectively. In order to reproduce the far-field tsunami waveforms, small sources such as splay fault or submarine slump alone were not enough, and a seismological fault model was required. Relocated aftershock distribution and observed coastal subsidence were preferable for the low-angle fault, but the low-angle fault alone could not reproduce the large near-field tsunamis. The low-angle fault with additional source, possibly a submarine slump, is the most likely source of the 1998 tsunami, although other possibilities cannot be excluded. Computations from different source models showed that the far-field tsunami amplitudes are proportional to the displaced water volume at the source, and the comparison with the observed tsunami amplitudes indicated that the displaced water volume at the 1998 tsunami source was ～0.6 km³. The near-filed tsunami heights, on the other hand, are determined by the potential energy of displaced water, and the comparison with the observed heights showed that the potential energy was ～2 × 10¹² J.     

The 11 March 2011 Tohoku Tsunami Survey in Rikuzentakata and Comparison with Historical Events

On 11 March 2011, a moment magnitude M _w = 9.0 earthquake occurred off the Japan Tohoku coast causing catastrophic damage and loss of human lives. In the immediate aftermath of the earthquake, we conducted the reconnaissance survey in the city of Rikuzentakata, Japan. In comparison with three previous historical tsunamis impacting the same region, the 2011 event presented the largest values with respect to the tsunami height, the inundation area and the inundation distance. A representative tsunami height of 15 m was recorded in Rikuzentakata, with increased heights of 20 m around rocky headlands. In terms of the inundation area, the 2011 Tohoku tsunami exceeded by almost 2.6 times the area flooded by the 1960 Chilean tsunami, which ranks second among the four events compared. The maximum tsunami inundation distance was 8.1 km along the Kesen River, exceeding the 1933 Showa and 1960 Chilean tsunami inundations by factors of 6.2 and 2.7, respectively. The overland tsunami inundation distance was less than 2 km. The tsunami inundation height linearly decreased along the Kesen River at a rate of approximately 1 m/km. Nevertheless, the measured inland tsunami heights exhibit significant variations on local and regional scales. A designated “tsunami control forest” planted with a cross-shore width of about 200 m along a 2 km stretch of Rikuzentakata coastline was completely overrun and failed to protect the local community during this extreme event. Similarly, many designated tsunami shelters were too low and were overwashed by tsunami waves, thereby failing to provide shelter for evacuees—a risk that had been underestimated.     

Geologic Setting, Field Survey and Modeling of the Chimbote, Northern Peru, Tsunami of 21 February 1996

—Whereas the coast of Peru south of 10°S is historically accustomed to tsunamigenic earthquakes, the subduction zone north of 10°S has been relatively quiet. On 21 February 1996 at 21:51 GMT (07:51 local time) a large, tsunamigenic earthquake (Harvard estimate M _w = 7.5) struck at 9.6°S, 79.6°W, approximately 130 km off the northern coast of Peru, north of the intersection of the Mendaña fracture zone with the Peru–Chile trench. The likely mechanism inferred from seismic data is a low-angle thrust consistent with subduction of the Nazca Plate beneath the South American plate, with relatively slow rupture characteristics. Approximately one hour after the main shock, a damaging tsunami reached the Peruvian coast, resulting in twelve deaths. We report survey measurements, from 7.7°S to 11°S, on maximum runup (2–5m, between 8 and 10°S), maximum inundation distances, which exceeded 500 m, and tsunami sediment deposition patterns. Observations and numerical simulations show that the hydrodynamic characteristics of this event resemble those of the 1992 Nicaragua tsunami. Differences in climate, vegetation and population make these two tsunamis seem more different than they were. This 1996 Chimbote event was the first large (M _w >7) subduction-zone (interplate) earthquake between about 8 and 10°S, in Peru, since the 17th century, and bears resemblance to the 1960 (M _w 7.6) event at 6.8°S. Together these two events are apparently the only large subduction-zone earthquakes in northern Peru since 1619 (est. latitude 8°S, est. M _w 7.8); these two tsunamis also each produced more fatalities than any other tsunami in Peru since the 18th century. We concur with Pelayo and Wiens (1990, 1992) that this subduction zone, in northern Peru, resembles others where the subduction zone is only weakly coupled, and convergence is largely aseismic. Subduction-zone earthquakes, when they occur, are slow, commonly shallow, and originate far from shore (near the tip of the wedge). Thus they are weakly felt, and the ensuing tsunamis are unanticipated by local populations. Although perhaps a borderline case, the Chimbote tsunami clearly is another wake-up example of a "tsunami earthquake."     

Some Aspects of Energy Balance and Tsunami Generation by Earthquakes and Landslides

— Tsunamis are generated by displacement or motion of large volumes of water. While there are several documented cases of tsunami generation by volcanic eruptions and landslides, most observed tsunamis are attributed to earthquakes. Kinematic models of tsunami generation by earthquakes — where specified fault size and slip determine seafloor and sea-surface vertical motion — quantitatively explain far-field tsunami wave records. On the other hand, submarine landslides in subduction zones and other tectonic settings can generate large tsunamis that are hazardous along near-source coasts. Furthermore, the ongoing exploration of the oceans has found evidence for large paleo-landslides in many places, not just subduction zones. Thus, we want to know the relative contribution of faulting and landslides to tsunami generation. For earthquakes, only a small fraction of the minimum earthquake energy (less than 1% for typical parameter choices for shallow underthrusting earthquakes) can be converted into tsunami wave energy; yet, this is enough energy to generate terrible tsunamis. For submarine landslides, tsunami wave generation and landslide motion interact in a dynamic coupling. The dynamic problem of a 2-D translational slider block on a constant-angle slope can be solved using a Green's function approach for the wave transients. The key result is that the largest waves are generated when the ratio of initial water depth above the block to downslope vertical drop of the block H ₀ /W sin δ is less than 1. The conversion factor of gravitational energy into tsunami wave energy varies from 0% for a slow-velocity slide in deep water, to about 50% for a fast-velocity slide in shallow water and a motion abruptly truncated. To compare maximum tsunami wave amplitudes in the source region, great earthquakes produce amplitudes of a few meters at a wavelength fixed by the fault width of 100 km or so. For submarine landslides, tsunami wave heights — as measured by b, block height — are small for most of the parameter regime. However, for low initial dynamic friction and values of H ₀ /W sin δ less than 1, tsunami wave heights in the downslope and upslope directions reach b and b/4, respectively.Wavelengths of these large waves scale with block width. For significant submarine slides, the value of b can range from meters up to the kilometer scale. Thus, the extreme case of efficient tsunami generation by landslides produces dramatic hazards scenarios.     

The November 15, 2006 Kuril Islands-Generated Tsunami in Crescent City, California

On November 15, 2006, Crescent City in Del Norte County, California was hit by a tsunami generated by a M _w 8.3 earthquake in the central Kuril Islands. Strong currents that persisted over an eight-hour period damaged floating docks and several boats and caused an estimated $9.2 million in losses. Initial tsunami alert bulletins issued by the West Coast Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) in Palmer, Alaska were cancelled about three and a half hours after the earthquake, nearly five hours before the first surges reached Crescent City. The largest amplitude wave, 1.76-meter peak to trough, was the sixth cycle and arrived over two hours after the first wave. Strong currents estimated at over 10 knots, damaged or destroyed three docks and caused cracks in most of the remaining docks. As a result of the November 15 event, WCATWC changed the definition of Advisory from a region-wide alert bulletin meaning that a potential tsunami is 6 hours or further away to a localized alert that tsunami water heights may approach warning- level thresholds in specific, vulnerable locations like Crescent City. On January 13, 2007 a similar Kuril event occurred and hourly conferences between the warning center and regional weather forecasts were held with a considerable improvement in the flow of information to local coastal jurisdictions. The event highlighted the vulnerability of harbors from a relatively modest tsunami and underscored the need to improve public education regarding the duration of the tsunami hazards, improve dialog between tsunami warning centers and local jurisdictions, and better understand the currents produced by tsunamis in harbors.     

Andaman-Sumatra island arc: II. The December 26, 2004 earthquake as one of the key episodes in seismogenic activation of the arc in the beginning of XXI century

The interpretation of the nature and parameters of the source for the earthquake that occurred in Sumatra on December 26, 2004 is suggested. Our study relies on a variety of data on the geological structure of the region, long-term seismicity, spatial distribution of the foreshocks and aftershocks, and focal mechanisms; and the pattern of shaking and tsunami, regularities in the occurrence of the earthquakes, and the genetic relationship between the seismic and geological parameters inherent in various types of seismogenic zones including island arcs. The source of the Sumatran earthquake is a steep reverse fault striking parallel to the island arc and dipping towards the ocean. The length of the fault is ～450 km, and its probable bedding depth is ～70–100 km. The magnitude of this seismic event corresponding to the length of its source is 8.9–9.0. The vertical displacement in the source probably reached 9–13 m. The fault is located near the inner boundary of the Aceh Depression between the epicenter of the earthquake and the northern tip of the depression. The strike-slip and strike-slip reverse the faults cutting the island arc form the northern and southern borders of the source. The location and source parameters in the suggested interpretation account quite well for the observed pattern of shaking and tsunami. The Aceh Depression and its environs probably also host other seismic sources in the form of large reverse faults. The Sumatran earthquake, which was the culmination of the seismogenic activation of the Andaman-Sumatra island arc in the beginning of XXI century, is a typical tsunamigenic island-arc earthquake. By its characteristics, this event is an analogue to the M _W = 9 Kamchatka earthquake of November 4, 1952. The spatial distribution of the epicenters and the focal mechanisms of the aftershocks indicate that the repeated shocks during the Sumatran event were caused by the activation of a complex system of geological structures in various parts of the island arc and Andaman Sea instead of the slips on a single rupture (a subduction thrust about 1200–1300 km in length).     

南中国海区域海啸预警中心地震监测系统

简要介绍了南中国海区域海啸预警与减灾系统的建设和发展历程,同时重点阐述了地震监测系统构成及其基本功能。作为重要组成部分,地震监测系统通过地震数据的实时汇集、存储、自动处理和分析,并结合人机交互方式实现了地震定位、震源机制解和有限断层模型反演。实际应用表明,地震监测系统对全球6.0级以上地震定位时间不超过8 min,在震后10—15 min内完成W震相方法快速反演海底强震震源机制解,在震后短时间内完成有限断层模型反演,为海啸预警提供快速、准确、可靠的地震基本参数和震源特征参数。      

Quantification of major earthquake tsunamis of the Japan Sea

The size of major tsunamigenic earthquakes which occurred in the Japan Sea is quantified on the basis of seismic and tsunamigenic source parameters. The tsunami magnitude M_t is determined from the instrumental tsunami-wave amplitudes. The M_t values thus obtained are on average 0.2 units larger than the values of moment magnitude M_w, though the M_t scale has originally been adjusted to agree with M_w. Moreover, the volume of displaced water at the source is on average 2.3 times as large as that for the Pacific events with a comparable M_w. Nevertheless, the observed height of the sea-level disturbance at the source is found consistent with the amount of crustal deformation computed for the seismic fault models. These results indicate that the tsunami source potential itself is large for M_w in comparison with the Pacific events. The large source potential is explained in terms of the effective difference both in the rigidity of the source medium and in the geometry of the fault motion. For the Japan Sea events, the M_t scale still provides the physical measure of the tsunami potential, and M_t minus 0.2 corresponds to M_w. This predicts that the maximum amplitude of tsunami waves from Japan Sea earthquakes is at least two times as large as that from Pacific earthquakes with a comparable M_w.     

Source model of Noto-Hanto-Oki earthquake tsunami of 7 February 1993

A source model was discussed for a small tsunami accompanied by the Noto-Hanto-Oki earthquake (M _s 6.6), striking Japan on 7 February, 1994. Assuming a fault model under the sea bottom, we estimated the focal parameters jointly, using synthesized tsunami source spectra as well as the tsunami numerical simulation. The fault proposed by this study consists of a plane sized 15×15 km, dipping N47°W with the dip angle of 42°, which is almost pure reverse fault (slip angle 87°) with a dislocation of 1 meter. The numerical simulation shows that the shallow sea in the source region caused a comparatively long recurring tsunami (the periods are 12–18 minutes) in spite of its small size. The model fault is corresponding to an aftershock area of this earthquake.     

An Overview of the 28 October 2012 M<Subscript>w</Subscript> 7.7 Earthquake in Haida Gwaii,Canada: A Tsunamigenic Thrust Event Along a Predominantly Strike-Slip Margin

The boundary between the Pacific and North America plates along Canada’s west coast is one of the most seismically active regions of Canada, and is where Canada’s two largest instrumentally recorded earthquakes have occurred. Although this is a predominantly strike-slip transform fault boundary, there is a component of oblique convergence between the Pacific and North America plates off Haida Gwaii. The 2012 M_w 7.7 Haida Gwaii earthquake was a thrust event that generated a tsunami with significant run up of over 7 m in several inlets on the west coast of Moresby Island (several over 6 m, with a maximum of 13 m). Damage from this earthquake and tsunami was minor due to the lack of population and vulnerable structures on this coast.     

A slow earthquake

Anomalous earthquakes such as creep events, tsunami earthquakes and silent earthquakes have been reported in the recent literature. In this paper we discuss an anomalous “slow earthquake” that occurred on June 6, 1960 in southern Chile. Although the surface-wave magnitude of this event is only 6.9, it excited anomalously large long-period multiple surface waves with a seismic moment of 5.6 · 10²⁷ dyn cm. The Benioff long-period seismogram of this earthquake recorded at Pasadena shows an extremely long, about 1.5–2 h coda of Rayleigh waves, with a period of 10–25 s. The coda length for other events with a comparable magnitude which occurred in the same region is about 10 min. This observation suggests that the long coda length is due to a long source rupture process which lasted at least 1 h. Although at least 15 distinct events can be identified in the coda, no short-period body waves were recorded corresponding to these, except for the first one. These results suggest that a relatively small (M_s ? 6.9) earthquake triggered a series of slow events; the duration of the whole sequence being longer than 1 h. This event probably occurred on a transform fault on the extension of the Chile Rise and provides important information regarding the nature of the transform fault.     

Evaluating Tsunami Hazard in the Northwestern Indian Ocean

We evaluate here the tsunami hazard in the northwestern Indian Ocean. The maximum regional earthquake calculated from seismic hazard analysis, was used as the characteristic earthquake for our tsunami hazard assessment. This earthquake, with a moment magnitude of M _w 8.3 and a return period of about 1000 years, was moved along the Makran subduction zone (MSZ) and its possible tsunami wave height along various coasts was calculated via numerical simulation. Both seismic hazard analysis and numerical modeling of the tsunami were validated using historical observations of the Makran earthquake and tsunami of the 1945. Results showed that the possible tsunami may reach a maximum height of 9.6 m in the region. The distribution of tsunami wave height along various coasts is presented. We recommend the development of a tsunami warning system in the region, and emphasize the value of education as a measure to mitigate the death toll of a possible tsunami in this region.     

Field Survey of the 27 February 2010 Chile Tsunami

On 27 February 2010, a magnitude M _w?=?8.8 earthquake occurred off the coast of Chile??s Maule region causing substantial damage and loss of life. Ancestral tsunami knowledge from the 1960 event combined with education and evacuation exercises prompted most coastal residents to spontaneously evacuate after the earthquake. Many of the tsunami victims were tourists in coastal campgrounds. The international tsunami survey team (ITST) was deployed within days of the event and surveyed 800?km of coastline from Quintero to Mehuín and the Pacific Islands of Santa María, Mocha, Juan Fernández Archipelago, and Rapa Nui (Easter). The collected survey data include more than 400 tsunami flow depth, runup and coastal uplift measurements. The tsunami peaked with a localized runup of 29?m on a coastal bluff at Constitución. The observed runup distributions exhibit significant variations on local and regional scales. Observations from the 2010 and 1960 Chile tsunamis are compared.     

The 1957 great Aleutian earthquake

The 9 March 1957 Aleutian earthquake has been estimated as the third largest earthquake this century and has the longest aftershock zone of any earthquake ever recorded—1200 km. However, due to a lack of high-quality seismic data, the actual source parameters for this earthquake have been poorly determined. We have examined all the available waveform data to determine the seismic moment, rupture area, and slip distribution. These data include body, surface and tsunami waves. Using body waves, we have estimated the duration of significant moment release as 4 min. From surface wave analysis, we have determined that significant moment release occurred only in the western half of the aftershock zone and that the best estimate for the seismic moment is 50–100×10²⁰ Nm. Using the tsunami waveforms, we estimated the source area of the 1957 tsunami by backward propagation. The tsunami source area is smaller than the aftershock zone and is about 850 km long. This does not include the Unalaska Island area in the eastern end of the aftershock zone, making this area a possible seismic gap and a possible site of a future large or great earthquake. We also inverted the tsunami waveforms for the slip distribution. Slip on the 1957 rupture zone was highest in the western half near the epicenter. Little slip occurred in the eastern half. The moment is estimated as 88×10²⁰ Nm, orM _w =8.6, making it the seventh largest earthquake during the period 1900 to 1993. We also compare the 1957 earthquake to the 1986 Andreanof Islands earthquake, which occurred within a segment of the 1957 rupture area. The 1986 earthquake represents a rerupturing of the major 1957 asperity.     

The 26 December 2004 Sumatra Tsunami: Analysis of Tide Gauge Data from the World Ocean Part 1. Indian Ocean and South Africa

The M_w = 9.3 megathrust earthquake of December 26, 2004 off the northwest coast of Sumatra in the Indian Ocean generated a catastrophic tsunami that was recorded by a large number of tide gauges throughout the World Ocean. Part 1 of our study of this event examines tide gauge measurements from the Indian Ocean region, at sites located from a few hundred to several thousand kilometers from the source area. Statistical characteristics of the tsunami waves, including wave height, duration, and arrival time, are determined, along with spectral properties of the tsunami records.     

A Revised Evaluation of Tsunami Hazards along the Chinese Coast in View of the Tohoku-Oki Earthquake

Japan’s 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake and the accompanying tsunami have reminded us of the potential tsunami hazards from the Manila and Ryukyu trenches to the South China and East China Seas. Statistics of historical seismic records from nearly the last 4 decades have shown that major earthquakes do not necessarily agree with the local Gutenberg-Richter relationship. The probability of a mega-earthquake may be higher than we have previously estimated. Furthermore, we noted that the percentages of tsunami-associated earthquakes are much higher in major events, and the earthquakes with magnitudes equal to or greater than 8.8 have all triggered tsunamis in the past approximately 100 years. We will emphasize the importance of a thorough study of possible tsunami scenarios for hazard mitigation. We focus on several hypothetical earthquake-induced tsunamis caused by M _w 8.8 events along the Manila and Ryukyu trenches. We carried out numerical simulations based on shallow-water equations (SWE) to predict the tsunami dynamics in the South China and East China Seas. By analyzing the computed results we found that the height of the potential surge in China’s coastal area caused by earthquake-induced tsunamis may reach a couple of meters high. Our preliminary results show that tsunamis generated in the Manila and Ryukyu trenches could pose a significant threat to Chinese coastal cities such as Shanghai, Hong Kong and Macao. However, we did not find the highest tsunami wave at Taiwan, partially because it lies right on the extension of an assumed fault line. Furthermore, we put forward a multi-scale model with higher resolution, which enabled us to investigate the edge waves diffracted around Taiwan Island with a closer view.