Climate change impacts on environmental geosciences: Introduction

正Climate change and its impacts have become topical issues of global news, scientific research and conferences. Environmental Geosciences incorporate the various disciplines of geosciences and their multifaceted interactions with life. Research discussions on the interaction of climate change, geosciences and environment may often be blur, and Schmidt-Thoméet al.(2010) stated that"Often past climate changes that can be deduced from geological records may help in understanding the speed of potential climate change effects, i.e. how quickly have sea levels changed, how drastic has nature reacted to ups and downs in temperature, etc. These analyses of past events help in giving outlooks on potential changes in our living environment. It is also of important to understand the magnitude and potential effects of extreme events, such as droughts and floods".     

Climate change impact on extreme precipitation and peak flood magnitude and frequency: observations from CMIP6 and hydrological models

Natural Hazards - Changes in climate intensity and frequency, including extreme events, heavy and intense rainfall, have the greatest impact on water resource management and flood risk management....     

Expected impacts of climate change on extreme climate events

An overview of the expected change of climate extremes during this century due to greenhouse gases and aerosol anthropogenic emissions is presented. The most commonly used methodologies rely on the dynamical or statistical downscaling of climate projections, performed with coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models. Either of dynamical or of statistical type, downscaling methods present strengths and weaknesses, but neither their validation on present climate conditions, nor their potential ability to project the impact of climate change on extreme event statistics allows one to give a specific advantage to one of the two types. The results synthesized in the last IPCC report and more recent studies underline a convergence for a very likely increase in heat wave episodes over land surfaces, linked to the mean warming and the increase in temperature variability. In addition, the number of days of frost should decrease and the growing season length should increase. The projected increase in heavy precipitation events appears also as very likely over most areas and also seems linked to a change in the shape of the precipitation intensity distribution. The global trends for drought duration are less consistent between models and downscaling methodologies, due to their regional variability. The change of wind-related extremes is also regionally dependent, and associated to a poleward displacement of the midlatitude storm tracks. The specific study of extreme events over France reveals the high sensitivity of some statistics of climate extremes at the decadal time scale as a consequence of regional climate internal variability.     

Climate change impacts in Romania: Vulnerability and adaptation options

Using the output from five climate model experiments (four equilibrium GCMs and one transient GCM) for a double carbon dioxide atmospheric concentration, the climate change scenarios in Romania for a time slice up to 2075 were constructed. These scenarios were used to assess the climate change impacts on different resource sectors: agricultural crops, forests, and water resources. The vulnerability of each sector and specific adaptation options were then analysed. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Climate change impacts on U.S. Coastal and Marine Ecosystems

Increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases projected for the 21st century are expected to lead to increased mean global air and ocean temperatures. The National Assessment of Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change (NAST 2001) was based on a series of regional and sector assessments. This paper is a summary of the coastal and marine resources sector review of potential impacts on shorelines, estuaries, coastal wetlands, coral reefs, and ocean margin ecosystems. The assessment considered the impacts of several key drivers of climate change: sea level change; alterations in precipitation patterns and subsequent delivery of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment; increased ocean temperature; alterations in circulation patterns; changes in frequency and intensity of coastal storms; and increased levels of atmospheric CO₂. Increasing rates of sea-level rise and intensity and frequency of coastal storms and hurricanes over the next decades will increase threats to shorelines, wetlands, and coastal development. Estuarine productivity will change in response to alteration in the timing and amount of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment delivery. Higher water temperatures and changes in freshwater delivery will alter estuarine stratification, residence time, and eutrophication. Increased ocean temperatures are expected to increase coral bleaching and higher CO₂ levels may reduce coral calcification, making it more difficult for corals to recover from other disturbances, and inhibiting poleward shifts. Ocean warming is expected to cause poleward shifts in the ranges of many other organisms, including commercial species, and these shifts may have secondary effects on their predators and prey. Although these potential impacts of climate change and variability will vary from system to system, it is important to recognize that they will be superimposed upon, and in many cases intensify, other ecosystem stresses (pollution, harvesting, habitat destruction, invasive species, land and resource use, extreme natural events), which may lead to more significant consequences.     

Climate change impacts on socioeconomic damages from weather-related events in China

Natural Hazards - China is vulnerable to climate change impacts, and this study investigates the potential socioeconomic damages to China from weather-related events under future climate...     

Climate changes: impacts on geomorphic processes

Climate is one of the conditions which permits, inhibits, retards or enhances certain responses in the geomorphic environment. Components of climate important to geomorphic processes include (1) the duration and character of climate episodes, i.e., the variation of the various climate parameters during any such period, and (2) the nature of discontinuities at both a climate episode's beginning and end, i.e., the magnitude of change and the rate of change occurring at the time of discontinuity. We will evaluate changes in the climate character over the Holocene, compare that to that observed during the instrumental period and, in turn, compare to predicted changes for an atmosphere with twice today's carbon dioxide concentration.     

Climate impacts: temperature and electricity consumption

Natural Hazards - One of the aspects of climate change is temperature rise. Temperature rise or fluctuations affect human economic activities and electricity consumption. This paper estimates the...     

Historical floods within the Selenga river basin: chronology and extreme events

Large floods are among the most hazardous natural phenomena, which in many cases cause enormous losses to the economy and lead to human casualties. Along with the use of modern instrumental data, the analysis of historical information on large past floods is widely practiced in the world. This allows obtaining qualitative and quantitative characteristics of historical floods and significantly expanding the observation series. The Selenga River is one of the largest rivers of Central Asia with catchment area equal to 447,060 km², and also it is rather flood-prone river. The hydrological regime of the Selenga River is quite well studied in the twentieth century on the basis of gauging stations data, but there is still a lack of knowledge about past floods. In this paper, we present a list of 26 known floods within the Selenga River basin from 1730 to 1900, compiled from available historical documents (newspapers, scientific reports, diaries, memoirs, etc.). We estimated peak water levels for three catastrophic floods (1830, 1869 and 1897), the historical maximum of which was 850 cm. The reliability of our estimates is confirmed by a comparative analysis of the large 1971 flood. It was revealed that the largest floods can cause a rise of the Lake Baikal water level up to 200 cm. The inflow to Lake Baikal resulting from the largest floods in the Selenga River basin is comparable to the average annual inflow of water into the lake. We can conclude that the use of historical data for the analysis of floods in Eastern Siberia is quite acceptable, but some limitations must be taken into account.

     

Climate change and its impacts on the coastal zone of the Nile Delta,Egypt

The main objectives of the current work are (1) to determine historic pattern of shoreline changes (erosion and accretion) along the north coast of the Nile Delta, (2) to present a future view on what to be expected regarding climate change impacts, sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios, expected land losses and alteration of some soil characteristics (3) to recognize negative impacts of SLR on the Nile Delta coast and (4) to assess and suggest protection measures. The current investigation was conducted using the advanced techniques of remote sensing and geographic information system. The investigated area with 394 measured locations is located along the northern coast of the Nile Delta between Alexandria and ElTina plain in Sinai peninsula exactly between 29°20′ and 32°40′ E and 29°54′ and 31°35′ N with the minimum erosion values of 1.11 m², maximum of 6,044,951.64 m² and total of 16.02 km². On the other hand, 177 sites showed minimum accretion values of 0.05 m², maximum of 2,876,855.86 m² and total of 13.19 km². SLR was determined by applying the quadrant equation for 10-year intervals using 1990 as the base year. Mediterranean SLR along the Nile Delta coast could be estimated considering three different scenarios (low 0.20 m, medium 0.50 m, and high 0.90 m). Impacts of SLR are divided into (1) primary and (2) secondary impacts. Over the coming decades, the Nile Delta will face greater threat due to SLR and land subsidence as well. Regarding climate change and its impacts on soil characteristics, rapid increase in salinity values during the former three decades were found. This increase may be due to the intrusion of salty water of the Mediterranean. On the other hand, organic matter content decreased due to higher temperature, especially during the summer season. Some protection measures were assessed and suggested to combat or tackle SLR.     

Climate change impacts on a Mediterranean river and the associated interactions with the adjacent coastal area

The Spercheios river basin—coastal marine area is a complex natural and interdependent ecosystem, highly affected by human activities and interventions. Such sensitive systems are even more vulnerable to alterations of the hydrological cycle components and it is likely to be rapidly and severely affected by climate change. In order to examine the climate change impacts on water resources of the study area, the interaction between the hydrology of the river basin and the hydrodynamic of the coastal marine area was examined using two models. Based on the results, although the irrigation needs decrease for the years 2050 and 2100 due to corresponding decrease in cultivated areas, temperature increase and precipitation decrease are both expected to influence the water resources of the Spercheios river basin, which will directly affect the Maliakos Gulf hydrodynamics. The necessity to adopt a holistic approach which will treat river basins and coastal marine areas as an integrated whole, with regard to environmental, socio-economic and political framework, is evident.     

Climate change impacts on groundwater resources: modelled deficits in a chalky aquifer,Geer basin,Belgium

An integrated hydrological model (MOHISE) was developed in order to study the impact of climate change on the hydrological cycle in representative water basins in Belgium. This model considers most hydrological processes in a physically consistent way, more particularly groundwater flows which are modelled using a spatially distributed, finite-element approach. Thanks to this accurate numerical tool, after detailed calibration and validation, quantitative interpretations can be drawn from the groundwater model results. Considering IPCC climate change scenarios, the integrated approach was applied to evaluate the impact of climate change on the water cycle in the Geer basin in Belgium. The groundwater model is described in detail, and results are discussed in terms of climate change impact on the evolution of groundwater levels and groundwater reserves. From the modelling application on the Geer basin, it appears that, on a pluri-annual basis, most tested scenarios predict a decrease in groundwater levels and reserves in relation to variations in climatic conditions. However, for this aquifer, the tested scenarios show no enhancement of the seasonal changes in groundwater levels.

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Resumen Se ha desarrollado un modelo hidrológico integrado (MOHISE) para estudiar el impacto del cambio climático en el ciclo hidrológico de cuencas representativas en Bélgica. Este modelo considera todos los procesos hidrológicos de forma coherente, especialmente en relación con los flujos de aguas subterráneas, que son modelados por medio de un enfoque de elementos finitos espacialmente distribuidos. Gracias a esta herramienta numérica precisa, y tras una calibración y validación detalladas, se puede obtener interpretaciones cuantitativas de los resultados del modelo del acuífero. Considerando escenarios de cambio climático IPCC, se ha aplicado el enfoque integrado a la evaluación del impacto de dicho cambio climático en el ciclo hidrológico de la cuenca del Geer. Se describe los detalles y resultados del modelo de las aguas subterráneas en términos del impacto del cambio climático en la evolución de las reservas de los acuíferos. Los resultados preliminares indican que es posible esperar déficits de aguas subterráneas en un futuro en Bélgica.

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Résumé Un modèle hydrologique intégré (MOHISE) a été développé afin détudier limpact du changement climatique sur le cycle hydrologique de bassins versants représentatifs de Belgique. Ce modèle prend en compte tous les processus hydrologiques dune manière physiquement consistante, plus particulièrement les écoulements souterrains qui sont modélisés par une approche spatialement distribuée aux éléments finis. Grâce à cet outil numérique précis, après une calibration et une validation détaillées, des interprétations quantitatives peuvent être réalisées à partir des résultats du modèle de nappe. Considérant des scénarios de changements climatiques de lIPCC, lapproche intégrée a été appliquée pour évaluer limpact du changement climatique sur le cycle de leau du bassin du Geer en Belgique. Le modèle de nappe est décrit en détail et les résultats sont discutés en terme dimpact du changement climatique sur lévolution des réserves souterraines. Les premiers résultats indiquent que des déficits deau souterraine peuvent apparaître dans le futur en Belgique.

     

变化环境对城市暴雨及排水系统影响研究进展

近年来,变化环境（气候变化和城镇化）导致城市暴雨的发生频率或强度增加,加剧了城市暴雨洪涝问题。因此,分析变化环境对城市暴雨及排水系统的影响对城市水资源规划管理、市政规划设计和城市防灾减灾有着重要意义。总结了未来高精度降雨预估技术、变化环境下排水系统设计标准等关键问题的研究进展,综述了变化环境下城市短历时暴雨演变规律及变化环境对城市排水系统影响的研究现状,探讨了变化环境对城市短历时暴雨的影响机理,并归纳了当前研究变化环境对城市暴雨及排水系统影响的主要方法。指出今后应重点加强的研究:①加强气候变化和城镇化对城市短历时暴雨影响机制的研究;②提升区域气候模式对城市区域下垫面和大气相互作用的描述能力,并加强公里尺度对流可解析模型在城市气候变化影响研究中的应用;③加强对变化环境下排水系统设计标准的研究;④综合评估气候变化和城镇化对城市排水系统超载、污染物转移和水安全等的影响。     

Sea Level change: Environmental and socio-economic impacts

The coast was among the first of the earth’s environments to be subjected to human modification; modification that was both direct and indirect, as it is today. During the last 4.000 to 5.000 years, human impacts on the coast were at what was basically a stable sea level. Because many of the modifications were made to protect against unusual events such as typhoons and tsunami, humans developed a variety of techniques for protecting shorelines. Recent calculations that a rapid sea level rise (in response to greenhouse warming) is imminent, has prompted concerned efforts at meeting the socio-economic impacts that are likely to occur. These impacts, rather than being localized and temporary as has been true in the recent past, are likely to be universal and long-lasting. This thought, penned by Blaise Pascal, was accompanied by an artistic interpretation by Corita Kent inNewsweek, June 14,1976, p. 87.     

Climate change impacts on water demand and availability using CMIP5 models in the Jaguaribe basin,semi-arid Brazil

The objective of this study was to analyze climate change impacts on irrigation water demand and availability in the Jaguaribe River basin, Brazil. For northeastern Brazil, five global circulation models were selected using a rainfall seasonal evaluation screening technique from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change named Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The climate variables were generated for the base period of 1971–2000, as were projections for the 2025–2055 future time slice. Removal of maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall output bias was used to estimate reference evapotranspiration, irrigation water needs, and river flow using the rainfall—river flow hydrological model Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure for the baseline and future climate (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios). In addition, by applying improved irrigation efficiency, a scenario was evaluated in comparison with field observed performance. The water-deficit index was used as a water availability performance indicator. Future climate projections by all five models resulted in increases in future reference evapotranspiration (2.3–6.3%) and irrigation water needs (2.8–16.7%) for all scenarios. Regarding rainfall projections, both positive (4.8–12.5%) and negative (??2.3 to ??15.2%) signals were observed. Most models and scenarios project that annual river flow will decrease. Lower future water availability was detected by the less positive water-deficit index. Improved irrigation efficiency is a key measure for the adaptation to higher future levels of water demand, as climate change impacts could be compensated by gains in irrigation efficiency (water demand changes varying from ??1.7 to ??35.2%).     

气候变化对挠力河径流量影响的定量分析

三江平原位于黑龙江省东北部,是中国沼泽湿地集中分布区且面积最大的区域,挠力河作为该区域的一条典型沼泽性河流,其径流演变过程受到气候变化和人类活动的双重影响.文中利用水量平衡法和降水-径流经验模型,定量分析了变化期气候变化对径流的影响,并比较了两种方法的优劣性,研究结果表明:50年来挠力河变化期(1968~2005年)内的年径流量的变化大约40%是由气候变化引起.气候变化对径流量影响的主导因素是降水量的变化,降水量变化对宝清站和菜嘴子站径流量减少的贡献率分别为43%和35%,蒸发量变化对两水文站径流量减少的贡献率为10%左右.利用水量平衡法研究气候变化对河流径流量的影响,其研究结果要优于一般的降水-径流经验模型法,但经验模型也不失为一种快速且简便的方法.     

Climate change adaptation: a systematic review on domains and indicators

In recent years, climate change has been one of the most complicated problems that human being has faced. Climate change adaptation (CCA) is considered to be an important component of risk management. In order to achieve adaptation, it is necessary to determine the indicators influencing adaptation in each community and this requires measurement and standard tools. The aim of this study is to determine and categorize the indicators of CCA. International electronic databases including Science Direct, Web of Science, Scopus, Google Scholar were investigated for only articles published in English language. In addition, Iranian databases including Irandoc, SID, and Magiran were investigated. There was no limitation on the methods of studies. Furthermore, snowball method was used for finding more articles while the ProQuest database was searched for related dissertations. The published documents from 1990 to November 2017 were gathered in this study. Out of 4439 publications initially search, 152 full texts were investigated. Finally, a total of 45 potentially relevant citations were included for full text review; in addition, fourteen other sources were investigated. Using snowball method, we found 24 other articles that were included in our final result. From the searches, 176 indicators were identified, while seven main domains were mentioned. Since in the articles, domains of adaptation are not in the form of a model, it is better to focus on this issue in the future and it seems that prioritizing and weighting domains in adaptation in different communities with different needs are an important issue.

     

Climate change and soil moisture: A case study

An important aspect of regional climate change is alteration in soil moisture availability. The EPIC (Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator — Sharpley and Williams, 1990) model is applied to estimate soil hydrology consequences in a representative subcatchment (24 km²) of Lake Balaton, Hungary. The study is based on the soil hydrology parameters of the EPIC model, which exhibit a relatively fast response to the climate variations. To specify the regional climate scenario for Hungary in semi-annual time resolution, a statistical approach computing regression between regional and hemispherical mean climate characteristics is employed. The semi-annual scenarios are further refined by applying the principle of geographical analogy. This difference corresponds to a 0.5 °K increase of the hemispherical mean temperature, i.e. the climate after 20–40 years of monotonous warming (IPCC, 1996a). Diurnal statistical parameters which correspond to present (base-line) and future climates of the investigated site are finally introduced into the built-in weather generator of the EPIC model. A supplementary factor of variation in soil hydrology is crop-rotation, responsible for half of the standard deviations, as compared to the hypothetical maize monoculture experiment. Climate generated differences in transpiration, soil moisture content, and crop-available water during water stress days. In connection with the assumed warming, there is a general trend towards drought during the vegetation growing period.