Ground Surface Warming History in Northern Canada Inferred from Inversions of Temperature Logs and Comparison with Other Proxy Climate Reconstructions

— Well temperature logs from 61 sites located in discontinuous and continuous permafrost regions of northern Canada are analyzed. The method of functional space inversion (FSI) is applied to the set of precise temperature logs from wells located between 60 ° and 82 °N. There is strong evidence of extensive ground surface temperature (GST) warming beginning in the late 18^th century and lasting until the 20^th century. This was preceded by a lengthy period of cooling. The approximate average increase of the surface temperature of Canadian Arctic, based on all individual GST histories, is > 1.3 °C for the last 200 years. Simultaneous inversion of all well temperature data suggests an even higher warming (approximately 2 °C). There has been no strong south-to-north gradient in the ground warming magnitude when northern Canadian data are compared with eastern and central Canadian data south of 60 °N which also shows warming close to 2 °C. In Alaska, warming of some 2 °C has been restricted mainly to the 20^th century. In general, however, a high warming magnitude is common for most of Canada and Alaska for the previous century. The averaged GST history (GSTH) for the Canadian Arctic is calibrated with and compares visually with a variety of recently published regional and hemispheric proxy climate reconstructions. These show that GST warming derived from well temperature logs is generally higher than one shown by other proxy (mainly tree-ring reconstructions).Received April, 2003     

Climate Change in the Urals,Russia, Inferred from Borehole Temperature Data

Borehole temperatures in the central and south Urals were analysed for the past ground surface temperature (GST) signal. 31 highquality temperature logs were selected for this purpose and inverted with algorithms based on the generalised least squares theory. The signal to noise ratio was improved by averaging the results of individual borehole inversions. No distinct regional trends were found in the studied region except for some indications of more pronounced warming in the south. The mean GST history (GSTH) was characterised by cooling down to –0.6 °C in the 18th century and subsequent warming to 0.5 °C above the longterm mean at the beginning of this century, and to 1 – 1.5 °C by 1980. The stability of the mean GSTH was tested in dependence on the number of holes used for the averaging. It showed that any subset of 15 holes yielded a GSTH similar to that obtained from the whole set. A surface air temperature (SAT) time series comprising the period 1832 – 1989 was combined from 17 meteorological records. Its least squares warming rate of 1.1 °C per 100 years is somewhat higher than that of the GST (0.7 – 0.8°C/100 years) in the same period.     

Climate change inferred from analysis of borehole temperatures: First results from Alberta Basin,Canada

High quality temperature measurements have been made to depths of 30 to 220 m at 42 sites in 62 observational hydrogeological wells in Alberta. The temperature profiles commonly show near-surface inversions with a minimum temperature at depths of 30 to 50 m. Thermal modelling suggests a surface temperature history with warming reaching 2°C over the past 30 to 60 years. Recent climate warming evident from the analysis of the air temperature data in the region seems to provide at least a partial explanation of the increased ground temperatures. A sudden increase of the surface ground temperature caused by land clearing may be the other explanation, although modelling of such a sudden increase can only explain the observed temperature-depth data if the onset of such warming is 20–30 years old, which is in disagreement with the history of land development in the studied area. The effect of near-surface inversions of the temperature profiles also has been observed in the forested areas. The above support the climate based effect. The superposition of the climatic effect and man-made activity effect upon the ground warming is a very complicated process calling for considerably more research.     

西藏地区地震前后地面温度特征提取分析

基于我国气象站气温数据和美国国家环境预测中心地表温度数据,对西藏地区2010年1月—2014年12月的15次 M_S5.0以上地震开展地面温度数据的变化提取研究。计算结果显示,12次地震前出现了气温增强现象,13次地震前出现了地表温度增温异常,在震前同时出现两种温度结果增值现象的地震有10次,且两者的温度峰值日期非常接近,相互印证了西藏地区中强以上地震前存在地面温度增强的现象。     

黄骅井水位水温同步反向变化成因分析

黄骅井水位2006年以来出现多次快速上升变化,水温有同步或滞后下降。通过水位加卸载试验和井管水体温度梯度测量,结合井孔水文地质条件,分析认为黄骅井水位快速上升变化多数是外界环境影响引起,水温在水位大幅度快速上升变化时产生的同步或准同步下降,是次生效应,冷水下渗说对其有较为合理的解释。     

表层沉积物特性对地震地面运动的影响研究

建立包含震源、沉积盆地和表层低速沉积层的二维模型,采用交错网格有限差分/伪谱混合方法求解地震波传播,讨论沉积层厚度和速度对地震地面运动的作用。结果表明:沉积层内产生的地震波的多重反射以及转换会引起地面运动持续时间的延长,它们的相干叠加会造成地面运动峰值的放大;随着沉积层速度的增加,多重反射与转换波的能量减小,地面运动持续时间减小,但是不同速度或者不同厚度的低速层模型均显示出一致的地面运动峰值放大特征。结果说明,在包含震源、沉积盆地和沉积层的模型中,沉积层对地面运动的作用机理更复杂。在实际应用中有必要同时考虑这些因素的综合作用。     

地球自由振荡与全球气温变化

2002年笔者曾发表了海边巨震对全球有降温效应的观点[1]。2004年底苏门达腊-安达曼发生Mw9.3巨震。据笔者观点巨震后气温应降低。而2005年3月杨冬红等[2]指出,按美国航天航空局学者的预测2005年将是地球有记录以来气温最高的一年(已有的最高年是1998年)。结果到了2005年底,实况     

海原地震石碑塬液化滑移地表特征形成机制探讨

海原大地震诱发石碑塬地区发生大规模液化滑移,因其多元地层结构和土体液化性质的差异,在滑移发生过程中形成节律性极强的后部似台盾,前、中部尺度差异性不强的波浪型地貌。而这种表性特征是滑移体成灾过程中发生模式的直观表达,因此,对其滑移体地表表性特征的形成机制分析是对该类致灾形式机制、机理研究分析一种理想研究角度的选择。文章结合实地调研、滑移体走向、地层剖面及前人对不同砂质黄土层的液化势判定成果,对波浪型峰谷地貌的峰、谷形成机制和运动特征进行细致的分析和探讨。     

北京良乡、赵各庄井水位、水温同震响应对比研究

收集了2001年以来北京地区良乡、赵各庄井水位、水温的同震响应资料,从其同震响应特征中发现,虽然两观测井水位的响应灵敏度相差不大,但良乡井水温的灵敏度要好于赵各庄井。在对比两观测井水温日变化幅度以及气泡脱逸模型的基础上,结合两观测井含水层的水文地质特征,对于两观测井水温响应灵敏度的差异给出了较为合理的解释。     

The Impact of Climate Change on Surface,Subsurface, and Groundwater Flow: A Case Study of the Oka River (European Russia)

Water Resources - The article considers an approach to evaluating the change in surface, subsurface and groundwater flow on a large river catchment exemplified by the Oka River basin. The study is...     

阿合奇地震台地倾斜观测与气温变化关系

通过提取地倾斜EW分量资料与气温资料作对比分析,认为EW分量短期变化与气温变化关系明显,但年变幅度变化与气温年变幅度关系不明显,且每次阿合奇地震台周围200 km范围内发生中强地震前,EW分量均出现趋势性的倾斜速率改变或者倾斜方向改变,说明该台地倾斜变化趋势与地震对应关系较为明显.而年变幅度与相位所含信息较为复杂,与地...     

汶川8.0级地震前后表层水温的异常变化研究

对汶川8.0级地震震中周围800km范围内73个井孔的表层水温资料进行了分析。根据设定的异常与不确定性异常判定依据,发现有9个井孔出现了前兆异常;有5个井孔的异常不能确定是否为前兆异常;有3个井孔出现了典型非前兆异常变化;其余未出现任何异常变化。分析认为异常存在早期、中期和晚期三个阶段,表现为缓变、突变和向下的阶梯状变化。对9个异常井孔的同井水位、气氡等其它流体测项以及同台或邻近台站形变仪器(钻孔应变、钻孔倾斜、洞体应变等)在表层水温异常变化时段内的动态变化特征进行了对比,发现地壳形变与表层水温在异常的晚期阶段具有一定的相关关系;而同井水位与表层水温异常的关系不大。     

Recent Climate Warming: Surface Air Temperature Series and Geothermal Evidence

Long-term (1961 – 1996) meteorological air temperature series together with the reconstructed ground surface temperature histories, obtained by inverting borehole temperature-depth profiles, were used to project regional patterns of the recent (climate) warming rate on the territory of the Czech Republic. The characteristic magnitude of the warming rate of 0.02 –0.03 K/yr was confirmed by the results of several years of monitoring the temperature in two experimental boreholes. The monitoring of shallow temperatures at depths of about 30 –40 m, i.e. below the reach of the seasonal surface temperature variations, can serve as an alternative tool of direct quantitative assessment of the present warming rate. The data also seem to sustain a potential man-made component contributing to the more pronounced recent warming rate observed in the areas of large agglomeration.     

一种地温传感器及其在大地震临震前兆监测中的应用

介绍了地球内部温度异常与地震孕育和发生的关系以及地温异常在地震预测中的应用,分析了现有的地温测量传感技术,提出了一种用于大地震临震前兆监测的深层地温传感器,描述了基于该传感器进行大地震临震前兆监测的方法和系统架构,使得结合其他手段进行地震三要素预测成为可能。     

地温场数值模拟软件包

为了实现多年来我国地热数据的挽救和共享,我们开发了“大地热流数据库”,该库的开发使用了Microsoft Visual C++6.0 和Visual Basic 6.0作为编成语言.该库是“中国岩石圈三维结构数据库”的子库之一.该库具备对原始数据的查询、增加、删除和编辑和地温场的数值模拟,针对岩石圈范围内的地质体,比如对地下一维、二维和三维温度场的有限元数值模拟,以方便地热工作者解决一些常见的地热问题.     

华北地区水位下降是否会减缓气温上升——浅部地温影响的数值模拟分析

华北地区由于长期持续的地下水过量开采,导致了大面积地下水位大幅下降,引发地面塌陷、地下水质污染等一系列地质环境问题,这些现象早已为人们所熟知和关注.然而地下水位下降还会造成百米量级浅部地温及其梯度的变化,因此即使来自地球深部的大地热流密度没有变化,年度平均的从表浅部位通过地表实际传导进入大气的热流密度会减小,这是中外文献中尚未见讨论过的问题.我们通过数值模拟发现假定大地热流密度不变的条件下,华北数万平方公里地下水位下降会造成百米尺度内的地温降低,从而传入大气的热流密度降低40%以上,且会持续数百年以上的时间.这种长时间大范围的传导入大气的热流密度变化对环境会造成什么影响是一个十分值得关注的问题.这一预测在一定程度上得到了气象站地温观测数据的支持,但由于目前气象观测站只有3.2 m深度范围内的地温资料,累计不超过5、60年,中间还有10余年的间断,而且表浅深度地温受地表多种因素的影响也较大,这些资料难以对我们关心的地下水位下降引起流入大气的热流密度变化这一问题提供直接确凿的数据来进行分析,因此今后有必要开展对地下数十乃至数百米地温进行持续精确的监测工作.     

华北强震前地下流体长趋势变化特征及其产生机理的研究

分析了华北地区自1976年以来MS≥6.0地震前地下流体长趋势变化的形态、演化特征。结果表明:地下流体长趋势变化出现时间早、范围广,具有协调性、重复性、迁移性等特性,主要沿构造带迁移,迁移方向为外围向内迁移或内部向外迁移;形态主要为趋势转折、破年变、加速等,其中绝对大多数为趋势转折变化;地下水位分析表明长趋势变化绝大部分呈现为缓慢上升或下降减缓的走势。对比研究了地壳形变与地下流体长趋势变化,发现地壳形变长趋势时间早于地下流体;形变出现张压变化与水位变化有比较密切的关系,即形变绝大部分出现缓慢压性变化或张性减缓变化,水位绝大部分出现缓慢上升或下降减缓变化。最后讨论了强震前地下流体长趋势变化产生的机理:在地震孕育过程初(早)期,构造应力的缓慢增强将使岩体所含裂缝闭合,地壳发生变形,从而改变岩体的空隙率及相应的孔隙压力和渗透率,引起诸如地下流体长趋势动态异常变化;构造应力缓慢增强并向未来震中聚集,造成地下流体长趋势动态异常变化向震中迁移;而深部物质的不断上涌和影响范围增大致使地下流体长趋势动态异常变化向外围迁移。     

生产测井油气水三相流动流型研究

三相流动是油田开发动态监测中常见而又难于解决的问题.目前多数研究者把油气水三相流动看作气液两相流动处理,即忽略油水之间的差异.三相流动中流型变化很复杂,在实验的基础上,对井中流体的流型进行了分析研究,建立了三相流动中流型变化图版,可以对井下流体流型进行合理的识别与判断.     

Interaction between Surface and Subsurface Waters: Case Study of a Region in Kazakhstan

The results of field studies are used to establish the factors that control the interaction between surface water and unconfined groundwater in the region, to study the process of their interaction, and to propose empirical relationships for transient flow. Combined model calculations were also made, and their results and other formulas were compared with the results of field studies conducted by other researchers in large river valleys under dry and moderate climate conditions.     

桩基系统在地基液化和土体流动过程中的三维响应

松散的饱和砂土在液化之前可作为固体看待,但当过量的孔隙水压达到初始侧应力时它成为液体,之后又恢复其强度。这个过程不能各自单独处理,而应视为一个从固态到液态,或从液态到固态的连续变化过程。因此,整个伴随着地基液化———土体流动现象全过程应作为一个在固态和液态之间相变的系列过程。本文导出了一个简单的基本方程式,可以表达松散饱和砂土在液化和地基侧向滑移现象期间的固-液相转换。该基本方程式可用作桩基系统的动力分析,其适用性通过与弹塑性基本方程的比较得到验证。