Volcanological evolution of the Rivi–Capo Volcanic Complex at Salina,Aeolian Islands: magma storage processes and ascent dynamics

Critical to understanding explosive eruptions is establishing how accurately representative pyroclasts are of processes during magma vesiculation and fragmentation. Here, we present data on densities, and vesicle size and number characteristics, for representative pyroclasts from six silicic eruptions of contrasting size and style from Raoul volcano (Kermadec arc). We use these data to evaluate histories of bubble nucleation, coalescence, and growth in explosive eruptions and to provide comparisons with pumiceous dome carapace material. Density/vesicularity distributions show a scarcity of pyroclasts with ～65–75 % vesicularity; however, pyroclasts closest to this vesicularity range have the highest bubble number density (BND) values regardless of eruptive intensity or style. Clasts with vesicularities greater than this 65–75 % “pivotal” vesicularity range have decreasing BNDs with increasing vesicularities, interpreted to reflect continuing bubble growth and coalescence. Clasts with vesicularities less than the pivotal range have BNDs that decrease with decreasing vesicularity and preserve textures indicative of processes such as stalling and open system degassing prior to vesiculation in a microlite-rich magma, or vesiculation during slow ascent of degassing magma. Bubble size distributions (BSDs) and BNDs show variations consistent with 65–75 % representing the vesicularity at which vesiculating magma is most likely to undergo fragmentation, consistent with the closest packing of spheres. We consider that the observed vesicularity range may reflect the development of permeability in the magma through shearing as it flows through the conduit. These processes can act in concert with multiple nucleation events, generating a situation of heterogeneous bubble populations that permit some regions of the magma to expand and bubbles to coalesce with other regions in which permeable networks are formed. Fragmentation preserves the range in vesicularity seen as well as any post-fragmentation/pre-quenching expansion which may have occurred. We demonstrate that differing density pyroclasts from a single eruption interval can have widely varying BND values corresponding to the degree of bubble maturation that has occurred. The modal density clasts (the usual targets for vesicularity studies) have likely undergone some degree of bubble maturation and are therefore may not be representative of the magma at the onset of fragmentation.     

New insights in the geodynamics of the Lipari–Vulcano area (Aeolian Archipelago,southern Italy) from geological,geodetic and seismological data

Geological, geodetic and seismological data have been analyzed in order to frame the Lipari–Vulcano complex (Aeolian archipelago, southern Italy) into the geodynamic context of the southeastern Tyrrhenian Sea. It is located at the northern end of a major NNW–SSE trending right-lateral strike-slip fault system named “Aeolian–Tindari–Letojanni” which has been interpreted as a lithospheric discontinuity extending from the Aeolian Islands to the Ionian coast of Sicily and separating two different tectonic domains: a contractional one to the west and an extensional one to the north-east. Structural field data consist of structural measurements performed on well-exposed fault planes and fractures. The mesostructures are mostly represented by NW–SE striking normal faults with a dextral-oblique component of motion. Minor structures are represented by N–S oriented joints and tension gashes widespread over the whole analyzed area and particularly along fumarolized sectors. The analyzed seismological dataset (from 1994 to 2013) is based on earthquakes with magnitude ranging between 1.0 and 4.8. The hypocenter distribution depicts two major alignments corresponding to the NNW–SSE trending Aeolian–Tindari–Letojanni fault system and to the WNW–ESE oriented Sisifo–Alicudi fault system. GPS data analysis displays ∼3.0 mm/yr of active shortening between the two islands, with a maximum shortening rate of about 1.0 × 10⁻¹³ s⁻¹, between La Fossa Caldera and south of Vulcanello. This region is bounded to the north by an area where the maximum values of shear strain rates, of about 0.7 × 10⁻¹³ s⁻¹ are observed. This major change occurs in the area south of Vulcanello that is also characterized by a transition in the way of the vertical axis rotation. Moreover, both the islands show a clear subsidence process, as suggested by negative vertical velocities of all GPS stations which exhibit a decrease from about −15 to −7 mm/yr from north to south. New data suggest that the current kinematics of the Lipari–Vulcano complex can be framed in the tectonic context of the eastward migrating Sisifo–Alicudi fault system. This is dominated by transpressive tectonics in which contractional and minor extensional structures can coexist with strike-slip motion.     

Biogeochemical processes involving dissolved CO2 and CH4 at Albano, Averno, and Monticchio meromictic volcanic lakes (Central–Southern Italy)

This paper focuses on the chemical and isotopic features of dissolved gases (CH₄ and CO₂) from four meromictic lakes hosted in volcanic systems of Central–Southern Italy: Lake Albano (Alban Hills), Lake Averno (Phlegrean Fields), and Monticchio Grande and Piccolo lakes (Mt. Vulture). Deep waters in these lakes are characterized by the presence of a significant reservoir of extra-atmospheric dissolved gases mainly consisting of CH₄ and CO₂. The δ¹³C-CH₄ and δD-CH₄ values of dissolved gas samples from the maximum depths of the investigated lakes (from ?66.8 to ?55.6?‰ V-PDB and from ?279 to ?195?‰ V-SMOW, respectively) suggest that CH₄ is mainly produced by microbial activity. The δ¹³C-CO₂ values of Lake Grande, Lake Piccolo, and Lake Albano (ranging from ?5.8 to ?0.4?‰ V-PDB) indicate a significant CO₂ contribution from sublacustrine vents originating from (1) mantle degassing and (2) thermometamorphic reactions involving limestone, i.e., the same CO₂ source feeding the regional thermal and cold CO₂-rich fluid emissions. In contrast, the relatively low δ¹³C-CO₂ values (from ?13.4 to ?8.2?‰ V-PDB) of Lake Averno indicate a prevalent organic CO₂. Chemical and isotopic compositions of dissolved CO₂ and CH₄ at different depths are mainly depending on (1) CO₂ inputs from external sources (hydrothermal and/or anthropogenic); (2) CO₂–CH₄ isotopic exchange; and (3) methanogenic and methanotrophic activity. In the epilimnion, vertical water mixing, free oxygen availability, and photosynthesis cause the dramatic decrease of both CO₂ and CH₄ concentrations. In the hypolimnion, where the δ¹³C-CO₂ values progressively increase with depth and the δ¹³C-CH₄ values show an opposite trend, biogenic CO₂ production from CH₄ using different electron donor species, such as sulfate, tend to counteract the methanogenesis process whose efficiency achieves its climax at the water–bottom sediment interface. Theoretical values, calculated on the basis of δ¹³C-CO₂ values, and measured δ¹³C_TDIC values are not consistent, indicating that CO₂ and the main carbon-bearing ion species (HCO₃ ^?) are not in isotopic equilibrium, likely due to the fast kinetics of biochemical processes involving both CO₂ and CH₄. This study demonstrates that the vertical patterns of the CO₂/CH₄ ratio and of δ¹³C-CO₂ and δ¹³C-CH₄ are to be regarded as promising tools to detect perturbations, related to different causes, such as changes in the CO₂ input from sublacustrine springs, that may affect aerobic and anaerobic layers of meromictic volcanic lakes.     

The process of resurgence for Ischia Island (southern Italy) since 55?ka: the laccolith model and implications for eruption forecasting

This study provides an analysis of the evolution of resurgence from 55?ka for the active volcanic island of Ischia, southern Italy, using a laccolith model proposed in previous studies. This paper explores the uplift phases, eruptive behavior, and associated seismic activity of Ischia Island, which are important issues as the island has a high volcanic risk. Through an analysis of stress and strain over time for laccolith pressurization, it is shown that during resurgence, Ischia Island has undergone flexural uplift and progressive fracturing and faulting of the shallow crust (2?km thick), with an increase in the laccolith’s volume of at least 80?km³ and an average magma influx of 0.015?m³?s^?1. Different elastic and viscoelastic mechanisms are used to evaluate the modes of stress relaxation due to this laccolith pressurization phase. Stress relaxation can occur through uplift and seismicity, without eruption, or with eruption. It is also shown that large eruptions should be expected only for long-term uplift of the central part of Ischia Island (the Mount Epomeo block). In contrast, the occurrence of small effusive and explosive eruptions should involve the peripheral areas of the resurgent block, and these are more likely to occur in the near future than are large events.     

Geochemistry,geochronology, and zircon Hf isotopes of Late Jurassic–Early Cretaceous granitoids in the Xing'an Massif,NE China: Implication for the Late Mesozoic tectonic evolution and crustal growth

This paper presents new zircon U–Pb geochronological, Hf isotopic and whole-rock geochemical data for the granitic plutons in the Xing'an Massif, Northeast China, to constrain the Late Mesozoic tectonic evolution of the Mongol-Okhotsk Ocean and the Paleo-Pacific Ocean. The zircon U–Pb ages indicate that the granitoids emplaced during the Late Jurassic–Early Cretaceous. The granodiorites show an adakitic affinity with high Sr/Y ratios and low Yb (< 1.30 μg/g) contents. The monzogranites exhibit high SiO₂, low MgO contents, enrichment in LILEs (Rb, K, and Th), and depletion in HSFEs (Ta, Nb, Zr, P, and Ti). Petrological and geochemical features of these monzogranites suggest that they are highly fractionated I-type granitoids. In addition, the zircon ε_Hf(t) values and two-stage model ages (T_DM2 ) are in the range of +2.6 to +8.1 and 669–1011 Ma, respectively, indicating that primary magma was generated by partial melting of juvenile lower-crustal materials, and there was a significant crustal growth in the Phanerozoic in the Northeast China. Combined with the coeval granitoids widely exposed in the Xing'an Massif, we conclude that the Late Jurassic magma in Northeast China was generated in an extensional setting related to the closure of the Mongol-Okhotsk Ocean, but the Early Cretaceous magma was related to the subduction of the Paleo-Pacific Plate.     

23 November 1980 Irpinia–Basilicata earthquake (Southern Italy): towards a full knowledge of the seismic effects

This paper overviews the procedures and tools used for a systematic study of the macroseismic consequences caused by a strong earthquake that struck Southern Italy. The event referred to the 23 November 1980 (Io = X MCS, Ms = 6.9) which affected the Campania and Basilicata regions. Two aspects are addressed here: to broaden the knowledge of the macroseismic field and delineate damage maps of the sites affected on an urban scale. The target area of this study is the Basilicata region about which the current macroseismic information is poor. This research study, based only on unpublished documentary sources, supplies about 50 new assessments and about 30 new re-assessments of the macroseismic site intensity (MCS scale) as outputs. Moreover, about 80 thematic maps showing the damage pattern of the sites affected are also supplied. It is the first time that a large earthquake has been the subject of such extensive studies from a macroseismic point of view, with special attention to the analysis of damage effects at town scale.     

Episodic crustal growth and reworking at the southeastern margin of the North China Craton: evidence from zircon U–Pb and Lu–Hf isotopes of Archean tonalite–trondhjemite–granodiorite gneisses in the Bengbu-Wuhe area

The cratonization history of the North China Craton(NCC) and the nature of tectonothermal events are still highly controversial. Tonalite-trondhjemite-granodiorite(TTG) gneisses, as the dominant lithological assemblages in Archean metamorphic terranes, can provide significant clues to the magmatic and metamorphic evolution of Precambrian crust. This study presents zircon laser-ablation inductively-coupled-plasma mass spectrometry U–Pb ages, trace-element, and in-situ LA-MC-ICPMS zircon Hf isotope data for the TTG gneisses from the Bengbu-Wuhe area on the southeastern margin of the NCC.Cathodoluminescence images and trace elements indicated that magmatic zircons display the characteristics of euhedral-subhedral crystals with oscillatory growth zoning structures, high RREE contents, marked Ce positive anomalies, and Pr–Eu negative anomalies. The metamorphic zircons display the spherical-oval crystals with distinct core-rim structures, high and homogeneous luminescent intensity, lower RREE, Nb, Ta, Hf contents,relative flat REE patterns, weak Ce positive anomalies, and Pr-Eu negative anomalies. The Ti–in–zircon geothermometer data indicate that the crystallization temperature of the TTG gneiss ranged from 754 to 868 ℃. Zircon U–Pb ages indicate that the TTG gneisses formed at 2.79–2.77 Ga and 2.50 Ga and underwent metamorphism at 2.57–2.52 Ga. The Hf isotopic data indicate that the magmatic zircons exhibit high, positive eHf(t) values close to those of the coeval depleted mantle, whereas the metamorphic zircons exhibit negative or nil eHf(t) values. This implies that the TTG gneisses were derived from the partial melting of the ～ 2.9–2.6 Ga juvenile crustal sources mixed with ～ 3.0–2.8 Ga ancient crustal materials.Combined with the regional tectonic evolution, we propose that the metamorphic basement at the southeastern margin of the NCC underwent episodic crustal growth at ～ 2.7 and ～ 2.5 Ga and subsequently underwent crustal reworking or re-melting of the ancient crust during the Neoarchean. The Neoarchean TTG gneisses might have been derived from the partial melting of lower crustal materials related to plate subduction.     

Deep water gravity core from the Marsili Basin (Tyrrhenian Sea) records Pleistocenic–Holocenic explosive events and instability of the Aeolian Archipelago, (Italy)

A 4.8 m long gravity core was recovered on a relative topographic high in the northern part of the Marsili Basin (southern Tyrrhenian Sea) at a water depth of 3200 m. The core was taken in order to decipher the sedimentary record of the past volcanic events of the nearby Aeolian arc. A succession of thin (2 cm to 5 cm thick) fine-grained turbidites, mainly of volcaniclastic origin, topped by hemipelagic mud layers and a number of primary tephra layers were recovered by the core. The most prominent turbidite occurs in the lower part of the core at 385 cm. It consists of a 20 cm-thick, thinning-upward, pebble to sand-sized bed.     

Heterogeneous andesite–dacite ejecta in 26–16.6 ka pyroclastic deposits of Tongariro Volcano,New Zealand: the product of multiple magma-mixing events

The previously poorly documented 26–16.6 ka interval of pyroclastic volcanism from Tongariro Volcano is marked by three distal lapilli fall units (Rt1-3) exposed in ring-plain deposits. The distal Rt1-3 units are tentatively correlated to proximal scoria deposits on the upper slopes of North Crater based on their dispersal patterns, petrography and geochemistry. Lapilli in each of the Rt1-3 deposits are characterised by variable groundmass crystallinity, vesicularity and colour within individual clasts. Matrix glasses are mostly microlite-free, and compositionally diverse across the deposits (SiO₂ = 62–75 wt%), with wide composition ranges occurring within single clasts. The glasses represent different melts that were mingled and mixed shortly before eruption; a finding supported by widely variable Fe–Ti oxide equilibrium temperature estimates (∼830–1,200°C). Ranges of 30–160°C (typically 70°C) occur within individual clasts. Some clinopyroxene crystals display Mg-rich (∼Mg #88) rim zones around homogeneous low-Mg (∼Mg #68) cores, with abrupt transition zones. This zoning is interpreted as resulting from the injection of a more mafic melt into a stagnating, resident magma. Crystal-melt equilibria indicate that several episodes of mafic intrusion occurred, to produce hybrid melts with zoned crystals forming isolated ponds within the resident magma. Variable mixing from the percolation of melts and the coalescence of melt ponds would explain the wide range of melt compositions and equilibrium temperatures observed in the ejecta. The magma heterogeneity was preserved by quenching on prompt eruption, with much of the short-duration chaotic mixing of melts and crystals occurring in the conduit. The Rt1-3 eruptions were from an open magmatic system consisting of one or more long-lived stagnant crystal mush zones, from which eruptions were rapidly triggered by new injections of mafic magmas from greater depths. A similar pattern of magmatic dynamics was observed in the much smaller 1995 eruptions of the neighbouring Ruapehu Volcano.     

Paleomagnetic results from Northeast Anatolia: remagnetization in Late Cretaceous sandstones and tectonic rotation at the Eastern extension of the Izmir–Ankara–Erzincan suture zone

Paleomagnetic results obtained from Upper Cretaceous sandstones in Northeastern Anatolia demonstrate that the entire area from Erzincan to Kars has been remagnetised. The remagnetisation was acquired before the Middle Eocene collision between the Eastern Pontides and the Arabian Platform because Middle Eocene sandstones carry primary natural remanent magnetisations. The post-folding in situ mean direction of the Upper Cretaceous sandstones is compared with mean directions of younger, Middle Eocene to present rock formations. As a result, a two-stage antagonistic rotation mechanism is proposed. First, the collision between the Pontides and the Taurides between Late Cretaceous and Middle Eocene was associated by clockwise rotation of  ~ 26°. In the second stage between Middle Eocene and Middle Miocene and beyond, counterclockwise rotations up to ~ 52° of the Pontide and Anatolide blocks and clockwise rotations of the Van Block were characterised by regional shortening and westward escape.     

Understanding the collapse–eruption link at Stromboli,Italy: A microanalytical study on the products of the recent Secche di Lazzaro phreatomagmatic activity

The Secche di Lazzaro (SDL) phreatomagmatic activity, with the associated Neostromboli sector collapse, represents the most powerful activity of the last 6 ky at Stromboli. As revealed by its present-day activity, Stromboli is one of the most eruptive volcanoes in Italy, and flank instability, along its NW flank, is a common process. Volcano instability is often dramatised by explosive eruptions, thus it is of crucial importance to understand the linking between volcano collapse and the plumbing system itself. The possible role of pre-eruptive magmatic processes as triggers of explosive eruptions can be mainly preserved by minerals and revealed by petrochemical studies. We studied the juvenile components (scoria and pumice) of the pyroclastic deposits from the SDL phreatomagmatic activity with the aim to understand the eruption–collapse link.     

Facies characteristics and magma–water interaction of the White Trachytic Tuffs (Roccamonfina Volcano, southern Italy)

 The Quaternary White Trachytic Tuffs Formation from Roccamonfina Volcano (southern Italy) comprises four non-welded, trachytic, pyroclastic sequences bounded by paleosols, each of which corresponds to small- to intermediate-volume explosive eruptions from central vents. From oldest to youngest they are: White Trachytic Tuff (WTT) Cupa, WTT Aulpi, WTT S. Clemente, and WTT Galluccio. The WTT Galluccio eruption was the largest and emplaced ∼ 4 km³ of magma. The internal stratigraphy of all four WTT eruptive units is a complex association of fallout, surge, and pyroclastic flow deposits. Each eruptive unit is organized into two facies associations, Facies Association A below Facies Association B. The emplacement of the two facies associations may have been separated by short time breaks allowing for limited reworking and erosion. Facies Association A consists of interbedded fallout deposits, surge deposits, and subordinate ignimbrites. This facies association involved the eruption of the most evolved trachytic magma, and pumice clasts are white and well vesiculated. The grain size coarsens upward in Facies Association A, with upward increases of dune bedform wavelengths and a decrease in the proportion of fine ash. These trends could reflect an increase in eruption column height from the onset of the eruption and possibly also in mass eruption rate. Facies Association B comprises massive ignimbrites that are progressively richer in lithic clast content. This association involved the eruption of more mafic magma, and pumice clasts are gray and poorly vesiculated. Facies Association B is interpreted to record the climax of the eruption. Phreatomagmatic deposits occur at different stratigraphic levels in the four WTT and have different facies characteristics. The deposits reflect the style and degree of magma–water interaction and the local hydrogeology. Very fine-grained, lithic-poor phreatomagmatic surge deposits found at the base of WTT Cupa and WTT Galluccio could record the interaction of the erupting magma with a lake that occupied the Roccamonfina summit depression. Renewed magma–water interaction later in the WTT Galluccio eruption is indicated by fine grained, lithic-bearing phreatomagmatic fall and surge deposits occurring at the top of Facies Association A. They could be interpreted to reflect shifts of the magma fragmentation level to highly transmissive, regional aquifers located beneath the Roccamonfina edifice, possibly heralding a caldera collapse event. Received: 26 August 1996 / Accepted: 27 February 1998     

Geochemical monitoring of the 2002–2003 eruption at Stromboli volcano (Italy): precursory changes in the carbon and helium isotopic composition of fumarole gases and thermal waters

Significant changes in the helium and carbon isotopic composition of shallow thermal waters vs. gas and a crater fumarolic gas have been recorded at Stromboli prior and during the 2002–2003 eruption. The³He/⁴He ratios corrected for air contamination (Rc/Ra), and δ¹³C of fumarolic gases gradually increased from May to November 2002 before the eruption onset. These variations imply early degassing of a gas-rich magma at depth that likely fed both the intense Strombolian activity and small lava overflows recorded during that period. The lava effusion of late December 2002 was shortly preceded by a marked Rc/Ra decrease both in water and fumarolic gases. Comparison of He/CO₂ and CH₄/CO₂ ratios in dissolved gas and with values rules out the Rc/Ra decrease due to an increasing input of radiogenic⁴He. The Rc/Ra decrease is attributed to the He isotope fractionation during rapid magma ascent and degassing. A new uprising of ³He-rich magma probably occurred in January to February 2003, when Rc/Ra ratios displayed the highest values in dissolved gases ever measured before (4.56 Rc/Ra). The increase in He/CO₂ and CH₄/CO₂ ratios and decrease in δ¹³C of dissolved CO₂ was recorded after the 5 April 2003 explosive paroxysm, likely caused by enhanced gas-water interaction inducing CO₂ dissolution. No anomalous Rc/Ra values were recorded in the same period, when usual Strombolian activity gradually resumed.Editorial responsibility: H Shinohara     

The 1976–1982 Strombolian and phreatomagmatic eruptions of White Island,New Zealand: eruptive and depositional mechanisms at a ‘wet’ volcano

White Island is an active andesitic-dacitic composite volcano surrounded by sea, yet isolated from sea water by chemically sealed zones that confine a long-lived acidic hydrothermal system, within a thick sequence of fine-grained volcaniclastic sediment and ash. The rise of at least 10⁶ m³ of basic andesite magma to shallow levels and its interaction with the hydrothermal system resulted in the longest historical eruption sequence at White Island in 1976–1982. About 10⁷ m³ of mixed lithic and juvenile ejecta was erupted, accompanied by collapse to form two coalescing maar-like craters. Vent position within the craters changed 5 times during the eruption, but the vents were repeatedly re-established along a line linking pre-1976 vents. The eruption sequence consisted of seven alternating phases of phreatomagmatic and Strombolian volcanism. Strombolian eruptions were preceded and followed by mildly explosive degassing and production of incandescent, blocky juvenile ash from the margins of the magma body. Phreatomagmatic phases contained two styles of activity: (a) near-continuous emission of gas and ash and (b) discrete explosions followed by prolonged quiescence. The near-continuous activity reculted from streaming of magmatic volatiles and phreatic steam through open conduits, frittering juvennile shards from the margins of the magma and eroding loose lithic particles from the unconsolidated wall rock. The larger discrete explosions produced ballistic block aprons, downwind lobes of fall tephra, and cohesive wet surge deposits confined to the main crater. The key features of the larger explosions were their shallow focus, random occurrence and lack of precursors, and the thermal heterogeneity of the ejecta. This White Island eruption was unusual because of the low discharge rate of magma over an extended time period and because of the influence of a unique physical and hydrological setting. The low rate of magma rise led to very effective separation of magmatic volatiles and high fluxes of magmatic gas even during phreatic phases of the eruption. While true Strombolian phases did occur, more frequently the decoupled magmatic gas rose to interact with the conduit walls and hydrothermal system, producing phreatomagmatic eruptions. The form of these wet explosions was governed by a delicate balance between erosion and collapse of the weak conduit walls. If the walls were relatively stable, fine ash was slowly eroded and erupted in weak, near-continous phreatomagmatic events. When the walls were unstable, wall collapse triggered larger discrete phreatomagmatic explosions.     

Marine resources,biophysical processes,and environmental management of a tropical shelf seaway: Torres Strait,Australia–Introduction to the special issue

This special issue of Continental Shelf Research contains 20 papers giving research results produced as part of Australia's Torres Strait Co-operative Research Centre (CRC) Program, which was funded over a three-year period during 2003–2006. Marine biophysical, fisheries, socioeconomic-cultural and extension research in the Torres Strait region of northeastern Australia was carried out to meet three aims: 1) support the sustainable development of marine resources and minimize impacts of resource use in Torres Strait; 2) enhance the conservation of the marine environment and the social, cultural and economic well being of all stakeholders, particularly the Torres Strait peoples; and 3) contribute to effective policy formulation and management decision making. Subjects covered, including commercial and traditional fisheries management, impacts of anthropogenic sediment inputs on seagrass meadows and communication of science results to local communities, have broad applications to other similar environments.     

Assessment of calanchi and rill–interrill erosion susceptibilities using terrain analysis and geostochastics: A case study in the Oltrepo Pavese,Northern Apennines,Italy

Soil erosion is one of the most important environmental problems distributed worldwide. In the last decades, numerous studies have been published on the assessment of soil erosion and the related processes and forms using empirical, conceptual and physically based models. For the prediction of the spatial distribution, more and more sophisticated stochastic modelling approaches have been proposed – especially on smaller spatial scales such as river basins. In this work, we apply a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to evaluate badlands (calanchi) and rill–interrill (sheet erosion) areas in the Oltrepo Pavese (Northern Apennines, Italy). The aim of the work is to assess the important environmental predictors that influence calanchi and rill–interrill erosion at the regional scale. We used 13 topographic parameters derived from a 12 m digital elevation model (TanDEM-X) and data on the lithology and land use. Additional information about the vegetation is introduced through the normalized difference vegetation index based on remotely sensed data (ASTER images). The results are presented in the form of susceptibility maps showing the spatial distribution of the occurrence probability for calanchi and rill–interrill erosion. For the validation of the MaxEnt model results, a support vector machine approach was applied. The models show reliable results and highlight several locations of the study area that are potentially prone to future soil erosion. Thus, coping and mitigation strategies may be developed to prevent or fight the soil erosion phenomenon under consideration. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.