Decadal change in the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation

A decadal change in activity of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) was identified at a broad scale. The change was more prominent during August–October in the boreal summer. The BSISO activity during 1999–2008 (P2) was significantly greater than that during 1984–1998 (P1). Compared to P1, convection in the BSISO was enhanced and the phase speed of northward-propagating convection was reduced in P2. Under background conditions, warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in P2 were apparent over the tropical Indian Ocean and the western tropical Pacific. The former supplied favorable conditions for the active convection of the BSISO, whereas the latter led to a strengthened Walker circulation through enhanced convection. This induced descending anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean. Thermal convection tends to be suppressed by descending anomalies, whereas once an active BSISO signal enters the Indian Ocean, convection is enhanced through convective instability by positive SST anomalies. After P2, the BSISO activity was weakened during 2009–2014 (P3). Compared to P2, convective activity in the BSISO tended to be inactive over the southern tropical Indian Ocean in P3. The phase speed of the northward-propagating convection was accelerated. Under background conditions during P3, warmer SST anomalies over the maritime continent enhance convection, which strengthened the local Hadley circulation between the western tropical Pacific and the southern tropical Indian Ocean. Hence, the convection in the BSISO over the southern tropical Indian Ocean was suppressed. The decadal change in BSISO activity correlates with the variability in seasonal mean SST over the tropical Asian monsoon region, which suggests that it is possible to predict the decadal change.

     

The boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation simulated by four Chinese AGCMs participating in the CMIP5 project

The performances of four Chinese AGCMs participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） in the simulation of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation （BSISO） are assessed. The authors focus on the major characteristics of BSISO： the intensity, significant period, and propagation. The results show that the four AGCMs can reproduce boreal summer intraseasonal signals of precipitation; however their limitations are also evident. Compared with the Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation （CMAP） data, the models underestimate the strength of the intraseasonal oscillation （ISO） over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean （IO） during the boreal summer （May to October）, but overestimate the intraseasonal variability over the western Pacific （WP）. In the model results, the westward propagation dominates, whereas the eastward propagation dominates in the CMAP data. The northward propagation in these models is tilted southwest-northeast, which is also different from the CMAP result. Thus, there is not a northeast-southwest tilted rain belt revolution off the equator during the BSISO＇s eastward journey in the models. The biases of the BSISO are consistent with the summer mean state, especially the vertical shear. Analysis also shows that there is a positive feedback between the intraseasonal precipitation and the summer mean precipitation. The positive feedback processes may amplify the models＇ biases in the BSISO simulation.     

Influences of ENSO on boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation over the western Pacific in decaying summer

Climate Dynamics - Characteristics of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) over the western Pacific in ENSO decaying summer are revealed in this study. BSISO activity over the western...     

北半球夏季热带季节内振荡影响我国夏季降水的规律和预测方法

利用1979—2018年夏季逐日观测和再分析数据,对北半球夏季热带季节内振荡影响我国夏季降水的规律和预测方法开展了研究。首先,利用非传统滤波即异常相对倾向（Anomalous Relative Tendency,ART）方法获取了气象要素的次季节变化分量,并采用EOF分析方法提取了北半球夏季热带主要季节内振荡信号,结果表明向外长波辐射（Outgoing Longwave Radiation,OLR）异常相对倾向EOF前两个模态共同反映了北半球夏季起源于印度洋并向东和向北传播的、具有30~60 d周期的季节内振荡（Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation,BSISO）信号。回归分析表明,该季节内振荡信号能够导致当地及其北面地区低层风场和位势高度场异常,影响该地区及其北面地区的水汽辐合辐散,从而能引起我国尤其是我国南方地区季节内旱涝变化,并一定程度上反映了我国异常雨带的向北推进过程。而后,将提取的热带主要季节内振荡信号作为预测因子,将降水异常相对倾向作为先行预板对象,利用多元线性回归方法构建了我国夏季旬降水异常相对倾向的预报模型,将预报的旬降水异常相对倾向加上观测已知的降水近期背景距平,从而得到旬降水距平的预报结果。通过历史回报和交叉检验,评估了该模型对梅雨期我国江淮流域降水（包括2020年梅汛期异常降水）的次季节预测能力。     

Simulations of Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillations with the Climate Forecast System,version 2, over India and the Western Pacific: Role of Air–Sea Coupling

In this study, we examine the characteristics of the boreal summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) using the second version of the Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) and revisit the role of air–sea coupling in BSISO simulations. In particular, simulations of the BSISO in two carefully designed model experiments are compared: a fully coupled run and an uncoupled atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) run with prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). In these experiments an identical AGCM is used, and the daily mean SSTs from the coupled run are prescribed as a boundary condition in the AGCM run. Comparisons indicate that air–sea coupling plays an important role in realistically simulating the BSISO in CFSv2. Compared with the AGCM run, the coupled run not only simulates the spatial distributions of intraseasonal rainfall variations better but also shows more realistic spectral peaks and northward and eastward propagation features of the BSISO over India and the western Pacific. This study indicates that including an air–sea feedback mechanism may have the potential to improve the realism of the mean flow and intraseasonal variability in the Indian and western Pacific monsoon region.     

Factors Limiting the Forecast Skill of the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation in a Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Model

In this study,we evaluate the forecast skill of the subseasonal-to-seasonal(S2S)prediction model of the Beijing Climate Center(BCC)for the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation(BSISO).We also discuss the key factors that inhibit the BSISO forecast skill in this model.Based on the bivariate anomaly correlation coefficient(ACC)of the BSISO index,defined by the first two EOF modes of outgoing longwave radiation and 850-hPa zonal wind anomalies over the Asian monsoon region,we found that the hindcast skill degraded as the lead time increased.The ACC dropped to below 0.5for lead times of 11 days and longer when the predicted BSISO showed weakened strength and insignificant northward propagation.To identify what causes the weakened forecast skill of BSISO at the forecast lead time of 11 days,we diagnosed the main mechanisms responsible for the BSISO northward propagation.The same analysis was also carried out using the observations and the outputs of the four-day forecast lead that successfully predicted the observed northward-propagating BSISO.We found that the lack of northward propagation at the 11-day forecast lead was due to insufficient increases in low-level cyclonic vorticity,moistening and warm temperature anomalies to the north of the convection,which were induced by the interaction between background mean flows and BSISO-related anomalous fields.The BCC S2S model can predict the background monsoon circulations,such as the low-level southerly and the northerly and easterly vertical shears,but has limited capability in forecasting the distributions of circulation and moisture anomalies.     

Teleconnections associated with Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillation

The boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) has strong convective activity centers in Indian (I), Western North Pacific (WNP), and North American (NA) summer monsoon (SM) regions. The present study attempts to reveal BSISO teleconnection patterns associated with these dominant intraseasonal variability centers. During the active phase of ISM, a zonally elongated band of enhanced convection extends from India via the Bay of Bengal and Philippine Sea to tropical central Pacific with suppressed convection over the eastern Pacific near Mexico. The corresponding extratropical circulation anomalies occur along the waveguides generated by the North African-Asian jet and North Atlantic-North European jet. When the tropical convection strengthens over the WNPSM sector, a distinct great circle-like Rossby wave train emanates from the WNP to the western coast of United States (US) with an eastward shift of enhanced meridional circulation. In the active phase of NASM, large anticyclonic anomalies anchor over the western coast of US and eastern Canada and the global teleconnection pattern is similar to that during a break phase of the ISM. Examination of the evolution of the BSISO teleconnection reveals quasi-stationary patterns with preferred centers of teleconnection located at Europe, Russia, central Asia, East Asia, western US, and eastern US and Canada, respectively. Most centers are embedded in the waveguide along the westerly jet stream, but the centers at Europe and Russia occur to the north of the jet-induced waveguide. Eastward propagation of the ISO teleconnection is evident over the Pacific-North America sector. The rainfall anomalies over the elongated band near the monsoon domain over the Indo-western Pacific sector have an opposite tendency with that over the central and southern China, Mexico and southern US, providing a source of intraseasonal predictability to extratropical regions. The BSISO teleconnection along and to the north of the subtropical jet provides a good indication of the surface sir temperature anomalies in the NH extratropics.     

Real-time multivariate indices for the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation over the Asian summer monsoon region

The boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) is one of the most prominent sources of short-term climate variability in the global monsoon system. Compared with the related Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) it is more complex in nature, with prominent northward propagation and variability extending much further from the equator. In order to facilitate detection, monitoring and prediction of the BSISO we suggest two real-time indices: BSISO1 and BSISO2, based on multivariate empirical orthogonal function (MV-EOF) analysis of daily anomalies of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and zonal wind at 850 hPa (U850) in the region 10°S–40°N, 40°–160°E, for the extended boreal summer (May–October) season over the 30-year period 1981–2010. BSISO1 is defined by the first two principal components (PCs) of the MV-EOF analysis, which together represent the canonical northward propagating variability that often occurs in conjunction with the eastward MJO with quasi-oscillating periods of 30–60 days. BSISO2 is defined by the third and fourth PCs, which together mainly capture the northward/northwestward propagating variability with periods of 10–30 days during primarily the pre-monsoon and monsoon-onset season. The BSISO1 circulation cells are more Rossby wave like with a northwest to southeast slope, whereas the circulation associated with BSISO2 is more elongated and front-like with a southwest to northeast slope. BSISO2 is shown to modulate the timing of the onset of Indian and South China Sea monsoons. Together, the two BSISO indices are capable of describing a large fraction of the total intraseasonal variability in the ASM region, and better represent the northward and northwestward propagation than the real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) index of Wheeler and Hendon.     

Intraseasonal Oscillation of Tropospheric Ozone over the Indian Summer Monsoon Region

Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation(BSISO) of lower tropospheric ozone is observed in the Indian summer monsoon(ISM) region on the basis of ERA-Interim reanalysis data and ozonesonde data from the World Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation Data Centre. The 30–60-day intraseasonal variation of lower-tropospheric ozone shows a northwest–southeast pattern with northeastward propagation in the ISM region. The most significant ozone variations are observed in the Maritime Continent and western North Pacific. In the tropics, ozone anomalies extend from the surface to 300 hPa; however, in extratropical areas, it is mainly observed under 500 hPa. Precipitation caused by BSISO plays a dominant role in modulating the BSISO of lower-tropospheric ozone in the tropics, causing negative/positive ozone anomalies in phases 1–3/5–6. As the BSISO propagates northeastward to the western North Pacific, horizontal transport becomes relatively more important, increasing/reducing tropospheric ozone via anticyclonic/cyclonic anomalies over the western North Pacific in phases 3–4/7–8.As two extreme conditions of the ISM, most of its active/break events occur in BSISO phases 4–7/1–8 when suppressed/enhanced convection appears over the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean and enhanced/suppressed convection appears over India, the Bay of Bengal, and the South China Sea. As a result, the BSISO of tropospheric ozone shows significant positive/negative anomalies over the Maritime Continent, as well as negative/positive anomalies over India, the Bay of Bengal,and the South China Sea in active/break spells of the ISM. This BSISO of tropospheric ozone is more remarkable in break spells than in active spells of the ISM, due to the stronger amplitude of BSISO in the former.     

外强迫对热带季节内振荡影响的模拟研究

应用经过修改的NCAR CCM3模式和CAM2模式进行的数值实验结果以及NCEP的GFS模式的输出结果讨论了海温等外强迫作用对热带季节内振荡的影响.结果表明,热带季节内振荡是热带大气固有的内部变率.它是由大气内部过程的相互作用决定的.但外强迫对热带季节内振荡的强度、传播方向等有明显的影响.当外强迫没有变化时,模式可以模拟出与观测近似的低频振荡.当作为外强迫的海温和太阳辐射有年内季节变化时,模式模拟的季节内振荡则明显减弱.当海温与辐射不仅有季节变化而且有年际变化时,模式模拟的季节内振荡会进一步减弱.具有长周期的外强迫还会削弱季节内振荡中东移波动的能量而增加静止波的强度.在与海洋模式耦合的状态下,模式不受来自海洋的外强迫影响,而是与海洋构成一个耦合系统,可以产生最强的季节内振荡.     

印度洋海温年际异常与热带夏季季节内振荡的关系及其数值模拟研究

利用观测分析资料和SINTEX-F海气耦合长时间(70年)数值模拟结果,分析了印度洋海温年际异常与热带夏季季节内振荡(BSISO)各种传播模态之间关系及其物理过程。结果表明,印度洋海温年际异常与热带BSISO关系密切,当印度洋为正(负)偶极子情况,中东印度洋北传BSISO减弱(加强);当印度洋为正(负)海盆异常(BWA)情况,印度洋西太平洋赤道地区(40°E -180°)东传BSISO加强(减弱)。印度洋海温年际变化通过大气环流背景场和BSISO结构影响热带BSISO不同传播模态强度的年际变化。在负(正)偶极子年夏季,由于对流层大气垂直东风切变加强(减弱),对流扰动北侧的正压涡度、边界层水汽辐合加强更明显(不明显),导致形成BSISO较强(弱)的经向不对称结构,因此北传BSISO偏强(减弱)。印度洋BWA模态通过影响赤道西风背景以及海气界面热力交换,导致赤道东传BSISO强度产生变化。在正BWA年夏季,赤道地区西风较明显,当季节内振荡叠加在这种西风背景下,扰动中心的东侧(西侧)风速减弱(加强)更明显,海面蒸发及蒸发潜热减弱(加强)更明显,导致扰动中心的东侧(西侧)海温升高(降低)幅度更大,从而使边界层产生辐合(辐散)更强、水汽更多(少),因此赤道东传BSISO偏强;而在负BWA年,赤道地区西风背景减弱,以上物理过程受削弱使赤道东传BSISO偏弱。     

北半球夏季大气低频振荡演变特征及其与华北夏季降水的关系

本文采用1981～2010年夏季5～10月逐日的（10°S～50°N,40°E～160°E）范围内向外长波辐射OLR（Outgoing Longwave Radiation）资料和850 hPa层纬向风速资料（简称U850）作经验EOF（Empirical Orthogonal Function）分解,重新计算北半球夏季大气低频振荡BSISO（Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation）指数,并分析了其演变特征及其对华北夏季降水的影响规律。结果表明:（1）在北半球夏季印度洋—西北太平洋地区存在两种明显的低频信号,一种是BSISO1,空间分布呈西北—东南倾斜状,从热带印度洋向东北方向传播,振荡周期约为45 d;另一种是BSISO2,空间分布呈西南—东北倾斜状,从西北太平洋向西北方向传播,振荡周期约为20 d。（2）BSISO主要是通过影响大气环流和水汽输送来影响华北夏季降水过程。在500 hPa层,BSISO信号会造成华北地区东部副热带高压位置南北移动和强度发生变化来影响华北夏季降水;在850 hPa层,BSISO信号会通过伴随的气旋性或反气旋性异常环流影响向华北的水汽输送来影响华北夏季降水。（3）虽然热带大气季节内振荡MJO（Madden-Julian Oscillation）信号在全年都存在,但其变化在冬半年尤其冬季振幅最大,在夏季最小。BSISO信号变化在夏半年尤其夏季振幅最大。因此,利用热带大气低频信号开展延伸期降水过程预测,冬半年可以重点考虑MJO的影响,夏半年重点考虑BSISO的影响。     

Effects of air�Csea coupling on the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations over the tropical Indian Ocean

The effects of air?Csea coupling over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) on the eastward- and northward-propagating boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) are investigated by comparing a fully coupled (CTL) and a partially decoupled Indian Ocean (pdIO) experiment using SINTEX-F coupled GCM. Air?Csea coupling over the TIO significantly enhances the intensity of both the eastward and northward propagations of the BSISO. The maximum spectrum differences of the northward- (eastward-) propagating BSISO between the CTL and pdIO reach 30% (25%) of their respective climatological values. The enhanced eastward (northward) propagation is related to the zonal (meridional) asymmetry of sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA). A positive SSTA appears to the east (north) of the BSISO convection, which may positively feed back to the BSISO convection. In addition, air?Csea coupling may enhance the northward propagation through the changes of the mean vertical wind shear and low-level specific humidity. The interannual variations of the TIO regulate the air?Csea interaction effect. Air?Csea coupling enhances (reduces) the eastward-propagating spectrum during the negative Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) mode, positive Indian Ocean basin (IOB) mode and normal years (during positive IOD and negative IOB years). Such phase dependence is attributed to the role of the background mean westerly in affecting the wind-evaporation-SST feedback. A climatological weak westerly in the equatorial Indian Ocean can be readily reversed by anomalous zonal SST gradients during the positive IOD and negative IOB events. Although the SSTA is always positive to the northeast of the BSISO convection for all interannual modes, air?Csea coupling reduces the zonal asymmetry of the low-level specific humidity and thus the eastward propagation spectrum during the positive IOD and negative IOB modes, while strengthening them during the other modes. Air?Csea coupling enhances the northward propagation under all interannual modes due to the persistent westerly monsoon flow over the northern Indian Ocean.     

北半球夏季大气季节内振荡对中国东南沿海热带气旋暴雨的影响

本文采用美国台风联合警报中心整编的1981—2012年的best-track热带气旋资料、中国大陆743站逐日降水数据、亚太经合组织气候中心的北半球夏季季节内振荡(BSISO)指数和美国国家环境预报中心及大气研究中心的再分析资料,分析了中国东南部地区热带气旋暴雨特征及其与BSISO 8个位相的联系。结果表明:7、8月,中国东南沿海地区的热带气旋暴雨发生的频次最多,多个站点热带气旋暴雨占总暴雨频次的比例达40%以上。7、8月热带气旋暴雨主要发生于BSISO1的第1、2、7、8位相,发生的暴雨频次占总频次的78.4%,主要分布于福建省沿海地区和西南部;BSISO2的第5、6、7位相热带气旋暴雨发生的频次也较多,占总频次的73.6%,主要分布于福建省沿海地区及西南部和广东省西南沿海地区。对发生较多热带气旋暴雨的BSISO1和BSISO2位相背景下的环流合成异常的诊断显示,西北太平洋伸向中国东南沿海地区,大尺度引导气流为显著的异常东风带,有利于热带气旋登陆中国大陆;显著异常的纬向东风切变、气旋性相对涡度和整层水汽的异常辐合,有利于热带气旋登陆过程强度的维持,促使热带气旋暴雨发生在中国大陆。     

Intraseasonal variability in the far-east pacific: investigation of the role of air�Csea coupling in a regional coupled model

Intraseasonal variability in the eastern Pacific warm pool in summer is studied, using a regional ocean?Catmosphere model, a linear baroclinic model (LBM), and satellite observations. The atmospheric component of the model is forced by lateral boundary conditions from reanalysis data. The aim is to quantify the importance to atmospheric deep convection of local air?Csea coupling. In particular, the effect of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on surface heat fluxes is examined. Intraseasonal (20?C90?day) east Pacific warm-pool zonal wind and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) variability in the regional coupled model are correlated at 0.8 and 0.6 with observations, respectively, significant at the 99% confidence level. The strength of the intraseasonal variability in the coupled model, as measured by the variance of outgoing longwave radiation, is close in magnitude to that observed, but with a maximum located about 10° further west. East Pacific warm pool intraseasonal convection and winds agree in phase with those from observations, suggesting that remote forcing at the boundaries associated with the Madden?CJulian oscillation determines the phase of intraseasonal convection in the east Pacific warm pool. When the ocean model component is replaced by weekly reanalysis SST in an atmosphere-only experiment, there is a slight improvement in the location of the highest OLR variance. Further sensitivity experiments with the regional atmosphere-only model in which intraseasonal SST variability is removed indicate that convective variability has only a weak dependence on the SST variability, but a stronger dependence on the climatological mean SST distribution. A scaling analysis confirms that wind speed anomalies give a much larger contribution to the intraseasonal evaporation signal than SST anomalies, in both model and observations. A LBM is used to show that local feedbacks would serve to amplify intraseasonal convection and the large-scale circulation. Further, Hovm?ller diagrams reveal that whereas a significant dynamic intraseasonal signal enters the model domain from the west, the strong deep convection mostly arises within the domain. Taken together, the regional and linear model results suggest that in this region remote forcing and local convection?Ccirculation feedbacks are both important to the intraseasonal variability, but ocean?Catmosphere coupling has only a small effect. Possible mechanisms of remote forcing are discussed.     

Poleward propagation of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations in a coupled model: role of internal processes

The study compares the simulated poleward migration characteristics of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations (BSISO) in a suite of coupled ocean?Catmospheric model sensitivity integrations. The sensitivity experiments are designed in such a manner to allow full coupling in specific ocean basins but forced by temporally varying monthly climatological sea surface temperature (SST) adopted from the fully coupled model control runs (ES10). While the local air?Csea interaction is suppressed in the tropical Indian Ocean and allowed in the other oceans in the ESdI run, it is suppressed in the tropical Pacific and allowed in the other oceans in the ESdP run. Our diagnostics show that the basic mean state in precipitation and easterly vertical shear as well as the BSISO properties remain unchanged due to either inclusion or exclusion of local air?Csea interaction. In the presence of realistic easterly vertical shear, the continuous emanation of Rossby waves from the equatorial convection is trapped over the monsoon region that enables the poleward propagation of BSISO anomalies in all the model sensitivity experiments. To explore the internal processes that maintain the tropospheric moisture anomalies ahead of BSISO precipitation anomalies, moisture and moist static energy budgets are performed. In all model experiments, advection of anomalous moisture by climatological winds anchors the moisture anomalies that in turn promote the northward migration of BSISO precipitation. While the results indicate the need for realistic simulation of all aspects of the basic state, our model results need to be taken with caution because in the ECHAM family of coupled models the internal variance at intraseasonal timescales is indeed very high, and therefore local air?Csea interactions may not play a pivotal role.     

Evaluation of mean and intraseasonal variability of Indian summer monsoon simulation in ECHAM5: identification of possible source of bias

The performance of ECHAM5 atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) is evaluated to simulate the seasonal mean and intraseasonal variability of Indian summer monsoon (ISM). The model is simulated at two different vertical resolutions, with 19 and 31 levels (L19 and L31, respectively), using observed monthly mean sea surface temperature and compared with the observation. The analyses examine the biases present in the internal dynamics of the model in simulating the mean monsoon and the evolution of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) and attempts to unveil the reason behind them. The model reasonably simulates the seasonal mean-state of the atmosphere during ISM. However, some notable discrepancies are found in the simulated summer mean moisture and rainfall distribution. Both the vertical resolutions, overestimate the seasonal mean precipitation over the oceanic regions, but underestimate the precipitation over the Indian landmass. The performance of the model improves with the increment of the vertical resolution. The AGCM reasonably simulates some salient features of BSISO, but fails to show the eastward propagation of the convection across the Maritime Continent in L19 simulation. The propagation across the Maritime Continent and tilted rainband structure improve as one moves from L19 to L31. The model unlikely shows prominent westward propagation that originates over the tropical western Pacific region. L31 also produces some of the observed characteristics of the northward propagating BSISOs. However, the northward propagating convection becomes stationary in phase 5–7. The simulation of shallow diabatic heating structure and the heavy rainfall activity over the Bay of Bengal indicate the abundance of the premature convection-generated precipitation events in the model. It is found that the moist physics is responsible for the poor simulation of the northward propagating convection anomalies.     

Evaluation of subseasonal impacts of the MJO/BSISO in the East Asian extended summer

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO)/Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO) has been considered an important climate mode of variability on subseasonal timescales for East Asian summer. However, it is unclear how well the MJO/BSISO indices would serve as guidance for subseasonal forecasts. Using a probabilistic forecast model determined through multiple linear regression (MLR) with MJO, ENSO, and long-term trend as predictors, we examine lagged impacts of each predictor on East Asia extended summer (May–October) climate from 1982 to 2015. The forecast skills of surface air temperature (T2m) contributed by each predictor is evaluated for lead times out to five weeks. We also provide a systematic evaluation of three commonly used, real-time MJO/BSISO indices in the context of lagged temperature impacts over East Asia. It is found that the influence of the trend provides substantial summertime skill over broad regions of East Asia on subseasonal timescales. In contrast, the MJO influence shows regional as well as phase dependence outside the tropical band of the main action centers of the MJO convective anomalies. All three MJO/BSISO indices generate forecasts that yield high skill scores for week 1 forecasts. For some initial phases of the MJO/BSISO, skill reemerges over some regions for lead times of 3–5 weeks. This emergence indicates the existence of windows of opportunity for skillful subseasonal forecasts over East Asia in summer. We also explore the dynamics that contribute to the elevated skills at long lead times over Tibet and Taiwan–Philippine regions following the initial state of phases 7 and 5, respectively. The elevated skill is rooted in a wave train forced by the MJO convective heating over the Arabian Sea and feedbacks between MJO convection and SSTs in Taiwan–Philippine region. Two out of the three commonly used MJO/BSISO indices tend to identify MJO events that evolve consistently in time, allowing them to serve as reliable predictors for subseasonal forecasts for up to 5 weeks.

     

Application of a serial extended forecast experiment using the ECMWF model to interpret the predictive skill of tropical intraseasonal variability

The extended-range forecast skill of the ECMWF operational forecast model is evaluated during tropical intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) events in the Indo-West Pacific warm pool. The experiment consists of ensemble extended serial forecasts including winter and summer ISO cases. The forecasts are compared with the ERA-40 analyses. The analysis focuses on understanding the origin of forecast errors by studying the vertical structure of relevant dynamical and moist convective features associated with the ISO. The useful forecast time scale for circulation anomalies is in average 13 days during winter compared to 7–8 days during summer. The forecast skill is not stationary and presents evidence of a flow-dependent nature, with states of the coupled system corresponding to long-lived convective envelopes associated with the ISO for which the skill is always low regardless of the starting date of the forecast. The model is not able to forecast skillfully the generation of specific humidity anomalies and results indicate that the convective processes in the model are associated with the erosion of the ISO forecast skill in the model. Circulation-associated anomalies are forecast better than moist convective associated anomalies. The model tends to generate a more stable atmosphere, limiting the model’s capability to reproduce deep convective events, resulting in smaller humidity and circulation anomalies in the forecasts compared to those in ERA-40.     

DIAGNOSTIC STUDY FOR INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATION OF THE MIDDLE-HIGH LATITUDES IN A LOW RESOLUTION GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL

In this paper, five-year simulated data from a low-resolution global spectral model with triangular trunca-lion at wavenumber 10 are analyzed in order to study dynamical features and propagation characteristics ofintraseasonal oxillations over the mid-latitudes and the tropical atmosphere. The simulations show that thereis the 30-50 day periodic oscillation in the low-resolution spectral model without non-seasonal external forcing,and spatial scale of the intraseasonal oscihations is of the globe .Further analysis finds that propagation charac-ters of intraseasonal oscillations over the mid-latitudes and the tropics are different. The 30-50 day oscillationover the tropics exhibits structure of the velocity potential wave with wavenumber 1 in the latitudinal and thecharacter of the traveling wave eastward at speed of 8 longitudes/day. However, the 30-50 day oscillationsin mid-latitude atmosphere exhibit phase and amplitude oscillation of the standing planetary waves and theyare related to transform of teleconnection patterns over the mid-latitudes. The energy is not only transferredbetween the tropics and the middle-high latitudes, but also between different regions over the tropics. Based on the analysis of 5-year band pass filtered data from a 5-layer global spectral model of Jow-ordetwith truncated wavenumber l0,investigation is done of the source of intraseasonal oscillations in the extratropicalmodel atmosphere and its mechanism. Results show that (1) the convective heat transferred eastward alongthe equator serves as the source of the intraseasonal oxillation both in the tropical and the extratropical atmos--phere; (2) the velocity-potential wave of a zonal structure of wavenumber 1 gives rise to oxillation in divergentand convergent wind fields of a dipole-form as seen from the equatorial Indian Ocean to the western Pacificduring its eastward propagation, thus indicating the oscillation in the dipole-form heat soure:e/sink pattertl; (3)the tropical heat-source oscillation is responsible for the variation in phase and intensity of the extratropicalstationary wave train, and the interaction between the oscillating low-frequency inertial gravity and stationaryRossby modes that are probably mechanisms for the oscillations ip the middle-high latitudes.