Reverse tracing of precursors and earthquake precursors in Taiwan

In this paper, we investigate the precursors of large earthquakes in the eastern region of Taiwan by means of the reverse tracing of precursors. We discuss the parameters which are suitable for the seismic chains and intermedi- ate-term patterns in this region and obtain the threshold of the patterns. Applying the linear discriminate method to the intermediate-term patterns of seismic chains, we present an approach for exploring the precursors of large earthquakes. The results show that this method can reduce the false alarm rate for large earthquakes in this region, and the reverse tracing of precursors can be applied to the eastern region of Taiwan.     

地震及其前兆的观测研究与地震预测

通过对地震灾害及预测观察研究现状的分析,解析了地震预测研究中存在的问题和不足,指出了地震及其前兆观测在预测研究中的作用,同时认为,地震前兆观测既不能盲目,也不能随波逐流也进行,其进展以决于地震孕育机理的深入理解和有效观测途径或方法的选择,并简述了２０年来在震前准静电场观测研究中取得进展和体会。     

Microseismic impulses as earthquake precursors

Records of the IRIS broadband stations in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatski, Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, Magadan, Yakutsk, Arti, and Obninsk obtained before the Kronotskii (Kamchatka Peninsula) M = 7.7 earthquake of December 5, 1997, and the Neftegorsk (Sakhalin Island) M = 7.0 earthquake of May 27, 1995, are investigated with the use of the Spectra Analyzer interactive program, designed for the analysis of properties of scalar time series. It is found that, 5 to 10 days before the shocks, stations nearest to the sources of these earthquakes recorded pulsed vibrations a few minutes long that were separated by intervals of a few tens of minutes. The shape asymmetry of the pulses characterized by different amplitudes of positive and negative polarity phases increased toward the earthquake onset time, as did the frequency and regularity of the pulse sequence. It is assumed that the nature of this phenomenon is related to self-organization properties of the seismic process in a metastable lithosphere and to the synchronization of vibrations in the inner and outer shells of the Earth, including chaotic and quasi-periodic components.     

前兆逆向追踪法与台湾地震前兆

用前兆逆向追踪法研究台湾东部地区大地震前兆, 讨论适合该地区地震链和中期图象的参数,确定地震链的中期图象阈值. 将线性判别方法应用于地震链的中期图象,给出一种探索大地震前兆的途径. 数据分析结果表明,这种途径可降低对该地区大地震的虚报率; 前兆逆向追踪法在台湾地区是适用的.      

一种评估地震前兆可信度的方法

本文提出了一种可以对地震前兆的可信度进行评估的方法. 通过对前兆信息的抽取、各类非地震干扰的识别、前兆与地震事件在时间和空间的相关性分析以及前兆的随机检验等一系列手段来评估前兆信息的真伪,提高地震前兆信息的显著性和可信度. 该方法及思路也可为其他非地震前兆的可信度评估所借鉴. 作为一个具体的例子,本文利用日本气象厅的地震目录以及能定量描述地震活动的时、空、强信息演化特征的RTL(Region_Time_Length)方法对2000年10月6日在日本鸟取县西部发生的7.3级地震前周围地区近26年的地震活动进行了系统的研究,得到了可能的地震活动前兆信息,并采用本文提出的方法对该前兆进行了评估,证实了上述前兆的显著性和可信性.     

Second round of evaluations of proposed earthquake precursors

This review summarizes the result of the second round of nominations for the IASPEI Preliminary List of Significant Precursors. Currently this List contains five cases of precursors: (1) foreshocks, (2) preshocks, (3) seismic quiescence before major aftershocks, (4) radon decrease in ground water, and (5) ground water level increase. A list of four cases that could not be accepted nor rejected by the panels reviewing them contains three on crustal deformations and one on seismic quiescence. In the second round 10 nominations were evaluated, nine new ones and one which had been considered previously. Two were accepted for the List, two were placed in the category of undecided cases. To date, a total of 40 nominations have been evaluated by IASPEI. For 37 of these the nominations, the mail reviews, the panel opinions, and, where supplied, the author's reply were published. This evaluation process remains active throughout the International Decade for Natural Hazards Reduction. Additional nominations are invited.The IASPEI Sub-commission on Earthquake Prediction does not guarantee that precursors accepted for the List can be used for earthquake prediction, nor does rejection of a nomination mean that the particular method could never become useful for prediction. However, the List, as well as the interchanges between authors and reviewers, allow us to gauge the state-of-the-art in earthquake prediction research. It is clear that we do not have an earthquake prediction capability, because the manner in which to use the few precursors on the List for predictions is not known. It also appears that many of the results thought to be conclusive by the authors, may not command the respect of the seismological research community at large. A more quantitative approach to data analysis, the use of rigorous statistical techniques, and high quality, long-term data sets are needed to make progress in earthquake prediction research.     

Some experience in unraveling geochemical earthquake precursors

The discrimination of significant earthquake precursors from background noise is treated as a multistep problem of pattern recognition. Statistical characteristics of helium-content recorded in short time intervals are used as informative parameters. The set of calculated characteristics includes estimations of the mean, the variance, and the results of spectral analysis of the investigated time series. The selection of significant parameters and the rigorous estimations of time shifts between geochemical and seismic series are carried out by analyzing their cross-covariance function. It is established that the most informative characteristics of a hydrothermal system are related to the dynamic fluctuations of the geochemical parameters. The final phase of prediction is based on the application of a method of statistical discovery of images. A method of earthquake-time prediction is suggested. By using this method, we may determine the 10-day interval during which an earthquake may occur two months in advance. The prediction may be improved by increasing the frequency of sampling and by improving the precision of analytical measurements, both of which can be achieved by automation of monitoring devices. Deployment of uniform monitoring networks is needed in regions designated for special prediction tasks.     

强地震前兆异常特征与深部流体作用探讨

根据华北几次强震前后地下流体和重力异常特征,结合大地测深资料探讨了地震发生前后深部介质的变化和地壳浅层应力场变化特征。地震发生前震中区地下水位异常主要表现为下降型,气体异常呈上升型,重力和形变也出现异常;在外围地区地震前地下水位异常以上升型为主。 海城地震和大同–阳高地震前地下水位上升、下降异常有方向性分布的趋势,呈 X 形分布,这意味着地壳浅层应力场是压扭型的,并存在垂向应力的作用。在孕震过程中,地球深部流体向上运移,使得震源区及其附近的岩石膨胀、密度降低,震中区地壳浅层应力场呈拉张型,造成地下水储容积增大,地下水位出现了下降型异常。 在特定的构造单元内,地下流体、重力异常的空间分布特征能较好地反映地球深部物质运动和地壳浅层应力场特征。     

2015年1月11日河北滦县M_L 3.3震群震兆分析

2015年1月11日河北滦县发生ML 3.3震群,可定位地震200余次。运用序列参数、精定位、震源机制解、历史地震活动类比、发震构造分析等传统和数字地震学方法,对震群与强震孕震关系进行了分析。分析认为,此次震群仍属于唐山老震区的地震活动,不具备前震序列和典型前兆震群的性质,唐山作为地震窗也未达到开窗指标。精定位和震源机制解显示,此次ML 3.3震群发生在卢龙断裂中段4级地震空段内,3月22日发生的ML 3.2地震及其余震活动已非1月11日ML 3.3震群的持续发展。     

短临地震前兆空间非均匀性的定量研究

利用《中国震例》中总结出的短临前兆资料 ,计算了华北地区 1 969～ 1 983年间发生的 1 3次 5级以上地震前各类短临前兆空间群体分布的 CV 值。结果表明 ,震前短临前兆数≥ 6次的 8个震例中 ,有 6个震前短临前兆空间分布的 CV 值明显高于二维连续空间随机均匀分布的 CV值 ,说明短临地震前兆空间分布具有明显的非均匀性。     

地震的确定性前兆及观测方法

实验证明,岩石破裂前必然发生"声发射",这为地震的确定性前兆研究提供了线索.但是,地震前兆的"声发射"与实验室岩石破裂前的声发射有类似之处,也有不同之处. 钻孔应变仪记录到不少地震前异常变化,其中2008年汶川8.0级地震前约一年姑咱地震台Y RY-4型钻孔应变仪记录的一系列"毛刺"异常较为典型.这些"毛刺"的时间分布...     

Quadrant characteristics of earthquake precursors and its theoretical analysis

IntroductionMigration and inhomogeneity are important two of the characteristics in the temporal-spatial distribution of earthquake precursors, which have been dealt with by MEI, et al (1993) comprehensively with their proposed explanation. The obvious quadrant feature in spatial distribution of earthquake precursors has been drawn with the explanation for its mechanism developed in some case studies in recent years. This paper deals mainly with the quadrant features derived from the analysis…     

张北MS 6.2级地震前兆综合加权信息量的变化

地震前兆综合加权信息量是在地震综合息量的基础上,改进了地震前兆异常出现概率的计算方法后得出的一种综合预报新方法。利用“地震预报专家系统”的思想对每一异事件进行综合评估,考虑到异常的可靠性、有效性、显著性及相互关联性给予不同的权重,以每异常事件的最可能发震时间来估算异常出现的概率,计算了华北地区１９９０年以来的地震前兆综合加权信息量,分析了１９９８年１月１０日张北Ｍｓ６．２级地震前这种信息量变化的特     

Soil radon observations as possible earthquake precursors in Turkey

Continuous soil radon gas observations in Turkey since 2002 have yielded consistent and repeatably encouraging results in terms of detection of anomalies prior to seismic events. However, earthquakes are quite complex natural phenomena and pre-seismic periods should be monitored by different techniques which may yield complementary results. Multidisciplinary research is seen necessary due to the fact that fault systems generating devastation earthquakes can be found in tectonically quite different regimes and that crustal deformation may not be detected by any of the available techniques alone.     

兰州形变与景泰地震的短临前兆

对比分析了兰州形变水管倾斜仪（ＦＳＱ）、水平摆倾斜仪（ＳＱ７０Ｂ）和石英伸缩仪（ＳＳＹ）于景泰地震前后观测结果中的非潮汐变化，探讨了它们对景泰地震的短期和临震前兆响应，结果表明，倾斜仪ＮＳ向于震前半月内有倾向震中的、幅度约０．１″的短临前兆显示。     

Some observations on the probabilistic interpretation of short-term earthquake precursors

This paper analyses the uncertainties in probabilistic interpretation of short-term earthquake precursors, even when the statistical information commonly indicated in the literature as sufficient to define the characteristics of these precursors is assumed to be known. The wide margins for uncertainty in the interpretation of such data are pointed out. One of the principal causes of uncertainty, as an example, lies in the physical origin of false alarms. Depending on this physical origin, the conditional probability of an earthquake, other conditions being equal, may vary in certain cases from values around 0–1 to as much as 0–7 or even higher. The utility of an alarm system, defined as the ratio between the mean number of favourable cases (successful alarms) and the mean number of unfavourable cases (false and missed alarms) is analysed. It is shown that an alarm system based on monitoring n ≥ 2 precursors, if the alarm is set off only after a combination of all precursors, may be considerably less useful than a system based on monitoring only one of the considered precursors.     

The first results of the pilot project on complex diagnosing earthquake precursors on Sakhalin

The results of the first stage of the pilot project on the complex monitoring of the atmospheric and ionospheric parameters, conducted on the instructions of the Russian Federation Government in order to decrease risk of destructive earthquakes in the Far East, are presented. The experiment was performed before and during a strong (M = 6.3) earthquake that occurred on August 2, 2007, on Sakhalin. The meteorological data (relative humidity and temperature), cloudiness anomalies according to the TERRA and AQUA satellite data, thermal anomalies of outgoing IR radiation according to the NOAA satellite data, variations in the total electron content according to the GPS data, and tomographic reconstructions of the ionosphere vertical structure according to the TRANSIT satellite data have been analyzed. The indications, typical of earthquake preparation and previously presented in the publications devoted to studying earthquake precursors, have been detected in all analyzed parameters. Synchronism and localization of the anomalies, registered using different methods in different geophysical fields, make it possible to assume that these anomalies have a common source, which could be the earthquake preparation process that is explained using the developed complex model of the lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere coupling (LAIC).     

Search for precursors of the 1974 Izu-Hanto-oki earthquake,Japan

Summary Premonitory changes in seismic wave velocity and regional seismicity were successfully detected for the Izu-Hanto-oki, Japan, earthquake of 1974,M=6.9. Premonitory variation in gushing rate of hot springs, being consistent with the results of the seismological studies, suggests that the dry dilatancy model is favorable for the pre-seismic process of the present earthquake. The precursor time observed 9±1.5 years is in fairly good agreement with current magnitude-precursor time relations. The longer axis of the anomalous area is three times as large as the linear dimension of the fracture zone. Absence of significant pre-seismic upheaval of the crust seems to be attributed to the strike-slip nature of the focal mechanism.     

地震前兆观测仪器标定问题的探讨

标定工作，在地震前兆观测仪器的研究，使用及所得数据的处理中均已成为一个不可少的环节，但缺少有关标定问题的基石性研究和讨论。本文就标定的定义、种类、目的、要求、存在的问题等做一粗线的讨论，以期今后加强这一工作的深入研究。