Estimation of flow enhancement in the Kinneret watershed due to cloud seeding

A comparison is carried out between historical records of the flow measured in Kinneret watershed during and prior to the time of cloud seeding for rainfall enhancement. Precipitation series for the control area of the meteorological experimentation serve as a reference for the comparison. The fluctuations of the flow, which would have occurred unless the effect of the seeding, are estimated by a linear regression on the precipitation as the control. The regression parameters are calibrated separately for the unseeded and for the seeded time series. The model with the parameters calibrated for the unseeded series is applied on the rainfall recorded during the seeded time, and vice versa. The difference between the measured and the computed data is attributed to the effect of cloud seeding. Similar comparisons are carried out with respect to rainfall series recorded at the target area and at the edge of the enhanced area.The results indicate that the flow from the affected sector of the watershed has been enhanced, with respect to the control, by 31×10⁶ m ³/year, at a significance level of 31. This enhancement is 5% of the volume which is generated in that area. The rates found with respect to the rainfall at the edge are higher than those found with respect to the control, while those with respect to the rainfall at the center of the target area are lower.     

Parameterizations of cloud feedback in a radiative-convective model

The effect of cloud feedback on the response of a radiative-convective model to a change in cloud model parameters, atmospheric CO₂ concentration, and solar constant has been studied using two different parameterization schemes. The method for simulating the vertical distribution of both cloud cover and cloud optical thickness, which depends on the relative humidity and on the saturation mixing ratio of water vapor, respectively, is the same in both approaches, but the schemes differ with respect to modeling the water vapor profile. In scheme I atmospheric water vapor is coupled to surface parameters, while in scheme II an explicit balance equation for water vapor in the individual atmospheric layers is used. For both models the combined effect of feedbacks due to variations in lapse rate, cloud cover, and cloud optical thickness results in different relationships between changes in surface temperature, planetary temperature, and cloud cover. Specifically, for a CO₂ doubling and a 2% increase in solar constant, in both models the surface warming is reduced by cloud feedback, in contrast to no feedback, with the greater reduction in scheme I as compared to that of scheme II.     

An application of the distributed hydrologic model CASC2D to a tropical montane watershed

Increased stormflow in the Quebrada Estero watershed (2.5 km²), in the northwestern Central Valley tectonic depression of Costa Rica, reportedly has caused flooding of the city of San Ramón in recent decades. Although scientifically untested, urban expansion was deemed the cause and remedial measures were recommended by the Programa de Investigación en Desarrollo Humano Sostenible (ProDUS). CASC2D, a physically-based, spatially explicit hydrologic model, was constructed and calibrated to a June 10th 2002 storm that delivered 110.5 mm of precipitation in 4.5 h visibly exceeded the bankfull stage (0.9 m) of the Quebrada flooding portions of San Ramón. The calibrated hydrograph showed a peak discharge 16.68% (2.5 m³ s⁻¹) higher, an above flood stage duration 20% shorter, and time to peak discharge 11 min later than the same observed discharge hydrograph characteristics. Simulations of changing land cover conditions from 1979 to 1999 showed an increase also in the peak discharge, above flood stage duration, and time to peak discharge. Analysis using a modified location quotient identified increased urbanization in lower portions of the watershed over the time period studied. These results suggest that increased urbanization in the Quebrada Estero watershed have increased flooding peaks, and durations above threshold, confirming the ProDUS report. These results and the CASC2D model offer an easy-to-use, pragmatic planning tool for policymakers in San Ramón to assess future development scenarios and their potential flooding impacts to San Ramón.     

Simulated changes due to global warming in the variability of precipitation, and their interpretation using a gamma-distributed stochastic model

The interannual variability of monthly mean January and July precipitation and its possible change due to global warming are assessed using a five-member ensemble of climate for the period 1871–2100, simulated by the CSIRO Mark 2 global coupled atmosphere–ocean model. In the 1961–1990 climate, for much of the middle to high latitudes the standard deviation of precipitation for both months is roughly proportional to the mean, with the coefficient of variation (C) typically 0.3–0.5. The variability there is shown to be largely consistent with that from a first-order Markov chain model of the daily rainfall occurrence, with the distribution of wet-day amounts approximated by a gamma distribution. Global distributions of Mark 2-based parameters of this stochastic model, commonly used in weather generators, are presented. In low latitudes, however, the variability from the coupled model is typically double that anticipated by the stochastic model, as quantified by an ‘overdispersion ratio’. C often exceeds one at subtropical locations, where rain is less frequent, but sometimes relatively heavy.The standard deviation of monthly mean precipitation S generally increases as the global model warms, with the global mean S in 2071–2100 in January (July) being 9.0% (11.5%) larger than in 1961–1990. Decreases in some subtropical locations occur, particularly where mean precipitation decreases. The global pattern of overdispersion is largely unchanged, however, and the changes in S can be related to those in the stochastic model parameters. Much of the increase in S is associated with increases in the scale parameter of the gamma distribution of wet-day amounts. Changes in C, which is unaffected by this parameter, are generally small. Increases in C in several subtropical bands and over northern midlatitude land in July are related to a decreased frequency of precipitation, and (to a lesser degree) changes in the gamma shape parameter. Some potential applications of the results to downscaling are discussed, and illustrated using observed rainfall from southeast Australia.     

Cloud tracking using satellite data for predicting the probability of heavy rainfall events in the Mediterranean area

The use of cloud tracking techniques and storm identification procedures is proposed in this paper with the aim of predicting the evolution of cloud entities associated with the highest rainfall probability within a given meteorological scenario. Suitable algorithms for this kind of analysis are based on the processing of digital images in the thermal infrared (IR) band from geostationary satellites: a selection of such algorithms is described in some detail together with a few real case applications. Three heavy rainfall events have been selected for this purpose with reference to the extreme meteorological situation observed during Fall 1992 and 1993 over the Mediterranean area. A window from 30 to 60 °N and from 20 °W to 30 °E has been identified for the analysis of data from the radiometer on board the ESA Meteosat platform. In conclusion, the suitability of cloud tracking techniques for predicting the probability of heavy rainfall events is discussed provided that the former are associated with proper modeling of small scale rainfall distribution.     

Estimation of potential evapotranspiration in the mountainous Panama Canal watershed

Spatially distributed hydrometeorological and plant information within the mountainous tropical Panama Canal watershed is used to estimate parameters of the Penman–Monteith evapotranspiration formulation. Hydrometeorological data from a few surface climate stations located at low elevations in the watershed are complemented by (a) typical wet‐ and dry‐season fields of temperature, wind, water vapour and pressure produced by a mesoscale atmospheric model with a 3 × 3 km² spatial and hourly temporal resolution, and (b) leaf area index fields estimated over the watershed during a few years using satellite data with two different spatial and temporal resolutions. The mesoscale model estimates of spatially distributed surface hydrometeorological variables provide the basis for the extrapolation of the surface climate station data to produce input for the Penman–Monteith equation. The satellite information and existing digital spatial databases of land use and land cover form the basis for the estimation of Penman–Monteith spatially distributed parameter values. Spatially distributed 3 × 3 km² potential evapotranspiration estimates are obtained for the 3300 km² Panama Canal watershed. Estimates for Gatun Lake within the watershed are found to reproduce well the monthly and annual lake evaporation obtained from submerged pans. Sensitivity analysis results of potential evapotranspiration estimates with respect to cloud cover, dew formation, leaf area index distribution and mesoscale model estimates of surface climate are presented and discussed. The main conclusion is that even the limited spatially distributed hydrometeorological and plant information used in this study contributes significantly toward explaining the substantial spatial variability of potential evapotranspiration in the watershed. These results also allow the determination of key locations within the watershed where additional surface stations may be profitably placed. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The mechanism of slope instability due to rainfall-induced structural decay of earthquake-damaged loess

Natural loess slopes are characterized by a strong geological structure, which is an important factor in maintaining slope stability. The magnitude and duration of the earthquake may disturb the soil structure at different levels degrees, locally changing the arrangement between soil particles. The process of rainfall humidification weakens the cementation between soil particles, and the disturbance and humidification change the structural state of the soil, which in turn causes sliding of the slope along with the decay of soil mechanical properties. As slope instability is often the result of a series of post-earthquake ripple effects, it is of great scientific significance to study the mechanism of slope instability due to the structural decay of earthquake-damaged loess exacerbated by rainfall. In this paper, the impact of structural decay of loess on slope stability is simulated by GEOSTUDIO software under three conditions: pre-earthquake rainfall, post-earthquake rainfall and earthquake, taking the landslide in Buzi Village, Min County, Gansu Province as an example. The comparative analysis of the calculation results shows that the structural properties of the slope without earthquake disturbance are influenced by infiltration amount. When it is fully saturated, the structural properties are similar to those of saturated soil, and the safety factor is reduced by 12.9%. In addition, the earthquake intensity and duration have different degrees of structural damage to the soil. When the structure is fully damaged, it is similar to that of remodelled soil, and the safety factor is reduced by 45.84%. Notably, the process of the earthquake and the following humidification generates the most serious damage to the loess structure, with a reduction in the safety factor of up to 56.15%. The quantitative analysis above obviously illustrates that the post-earthquake rainfall causes the most severe damage to structural loess slopes, and the resulting landslide hazard should not be underestimated.     

静止卫星闪电探测中云影响研究

相对已经在轨运行的极轨卫星,搭载在静止卫星上的闪电成像仪能够提供全天候、无间断的闪电探测,是目前全球卫星闪电探测的方向.本文分析云不同特性对云顶闪电信号的影响,以及云高对静止卫星闪电定位的订正分析,将对静止卫星闪电成像仪的研发及其业务化运行提供技术支撑.研究中,通过建立云中闪电传输模型,模拟云中闪电传输.由于云粒子散射,云的体积、光学厚度和形状,以及闪电在云中发生的深度,都影响云中或云间闪电信号传输到云顶的能量衰减和持续时间,其持续时间可能超过已知静止卫星闪电成像仪假设的2 ms成像积分时间间隔,这样不能保证所有的闪电信号在一帧图像内探测到.但是,云粒子散射对云顶闪电的水平位置影响不大,闪电成像仪定位的云顶闪电可代表云中或云间的闪电位置.同时,在传统静止卫星图像定位模型的基础上,建立了闪电定位的云高订正模型.根据该模型,当云顶高度为10 km,云高所引起的闪电定位最大误差达到经向0.5379°、纬向0.2273°,超过已知静止卫星闪电成像仪假设的地面探测单元大小,有必要进行订正.     

图像增强技术在重磁图像中的应用

本文综述了图像增强技术在位场数据中的应用现状，并介绍了两种改进的图像增强技术，用于增强重磁图像特征。一种方法借鉴了直方图平滑化的思想，应用于位场彩色影像的色谱的自动确定。该方法的应用能够使色彩合理地配置，从而保证了图像的视觉效果和分辨率。另一种方法基于改进的Radon变化和梯度计算，用于重磁图像中线性特征的检测和增强。该方法能在变化域中突出显示线性特征，从而有利于线性特征的检测和增强。通过对简单图像和实际资料的应用，表明了两种方法在增强特征中的有效性。     

Modelling the effect of an assumed cosmic ray-modulated global cloud cover on the terrestrial surface temperature

We have used the thermodynamic model of the climate to estimate the effect of variations in the oceanic cloud cover on the surface temperature of the Earth in the North Hemisphere (NH) during the period 1984–1990. We assume that the variations in the cloud cover are proportional to the variation of the cosmic ray flux measured during the same period. The results indicate that the effect in the temperature is slightly noticeable when we consider the surface hemispheric temperature on July 1987, finding an average temperature anomaly between −0.06°C and −0.14°C, along a latitudinal band between 20° and 40°. The surface temperature averaged globally in the NH presents a decrease of 0.01°C in average, which is almost the same for continents and oceans. However, these values are not significant when compared to the overall variability of the time series with and without forcing.     

Characteristics of cloud drop spectra in tropical warm clouds

Characteristics of cloud drop spectra were studied using 400 samples obtained from 120 warm cumulus clouds formed during the summer monsoon season.The total concentration of cloud drops (N _T) varied from 384 to 884 cm^–3 and the maximum concentration was observed in the layer below the cloud-top. The width of the drop spectrum was broader in the cloud-base region and in the region below the cloud-top. The spectrum was multimodal at all levels except in the cloud-top region where it was unimodal. The concentration of drops with diameter greater than 50 m (N _L) varied from 0.0 to 0.674 cm^–3.N _L was larger in the cloud-base region.N _L decreased with height up to the middle level and thereafter showed an increase. In the cloud-top region no large drops were present. The computed values of the liquid water varied between 0.132 and 0.536 g m^–3 and the mean volume diameter (MVD) varied between 8.1 and 12.0 m. The LWC and MVD showed a decrease with height except in the middle region of the cloud where the values were higher than the adjacent levels. The dispersion of the cloud drops was lower (0.65) in the cloud-top region and higher (1.01) in the cloud-base region.The observed cloud microphysical characteristics were attributed to vertical mixing in clouds induced by the cloud-top gravity oscillations (buoyancy oscillations) generated by the intensification of turbulent eddies due to the buoyant production of energy by the microscale-fractional-condensation (MFC) in turbulent eddies.     

Estimation of soil water content in watershed using artificial neural networks

Soil water content (SWC) is an important factor in transfer processes between soil and air, contributing to water and energy balances, and quantifying it remains a challenge. This study uses artificial neural networks (ANNs) to analyse spatial and temporal variation of SWC in a Brazilian watershed, based on climate information, soil physical properties and topographic variables. Thirty eight input variables were tested in 200 models. The outputs were compared with 650 gravimetric moisture measurements collected at 26 points (25 field studies). The results show that it is possible to estimate SWC efficiently (Nash-Sutcliffe statistic, NS = 0.77) using topographic data, soil physical properties and rainfall. If only climate information is considered, modelling is less efficient (NS = 0.28). Using many variables does not necessarily improve performance. Alternatively, SWC can be estimated by simplified models using rainfall and topographic maps information, although the performance is less good (NS = 0.65).     

云顶以下臭氧对TOMS反演臭氧总量的影响及反演方法的理论研究

目前紫外后向散射反演臭氧总量的所有算法,都将云考虑成不透明的Lambertian反射体,并假定云顶有效反照率不随波长的变化而变化.然而本文通过模拟计算发现,由于云散射、瑞利散射、臭氧吸收三种作用的综合结果,云顶的有效反照率是与波长相关的,即使光学厚度比较大的云,辐射也可由云顶继续向下传输,因而会受到云顶以下臭氧吸收的影响.用V7方法进行反演,模拟计算结果表明：云的出现使得云顶以下,特别是云内光程增强,导致紫外波段的臭氧吸收衰减增大,所以反演出的臭氧总量值比真实值偏大,本文称这种现象为“云吸收效应”,并讨论了该效应的影响因子.最后,在辐射传输模拟的基础上建立一套反演算法,大大减弱了“云吸收效应”的影响.     

Estimation of tail dependence coefficient in rainfall accumulation fields

Extreme rainfall events are of particular importance due to their severe impacts on the economy, the environment and the society. Characterization and quantification of extremes and their spatial dependence structure may lead to a better understanding of extreme events. An important concept in statistical modeling is the tail dependence coefficient (TDC) that describes the degree of association between concurrent rainfall extremes at different locations. Accurate knowledge of the spatial characteristics of the TDC can help improve on the existing models of the occurrence probability of extreme storms. In this study, efficient estimation of the TDC in rainfall is investigated using a dense network of rain gauges located in south Louisiana, USA. The inter-gauge distances in this network range from about 1 km to 9 km. Four different nonparametric TDC estimators are implemented on samples of the rain gauge data and their advantages and disadvantages are discussed. Three averaging time-scales are considered: 1 h, 2 h and 3 h. The results indicate that a significant tail dependency may exist that cannot be ignored for realistic modeling of multivariate rainfall fields. Presence of a strong dependence among extremes contradicts with the assumption of joint normality, commonly used in hydrologic applications.     

太湖鱼类放流增殖的有效数量和合理结构

根据2006-2007年太湖生物资源调查,估算出太湖浮游植物、浮游动物、底栖动物和水生植物总渔产潜力约为78494 t.太湖实施以渔改水的生物调控措施,应加大鲢、鳙放流数量和放流规格,在提高鱼产量的同时对抑制太湖蓝藻水华能起到积极作用;推算每年放流鳙约1000×104尾,鲢约300×104尾,规格为20尾/kg为宜.草鱼、团头鲂、青鱼、鲤等要在保护太湖水草和底栖动物资源和生物多样性前提下适当放流,每年宜放流草鱼150×104尾,团头鲂165×104尾,青鱼8×104 ～ 10×104尾,鲤夏花2500×104尾.而对调控鱼类结构小型化、单一化具有重要作用的肉食性鱼类翘嘴铂建议加大放流量,年放流量可扩大至500×104尾左右,在调控的同时提高湖泊渔业附加值.     

Estimation of the Amount of Suspended Sediment in the Tigris River using Artificial Neural Networks

The amount of sediment should be taken into consideration in the planning of water structures for efficient use of limited water resources. It is important to estimate the amount of sediment for the successful operation of these structures in their future performances. Such estimations can be achieved by Artificial Neural Network (ANNs) with low error percentages as seen in many other disciplines. These networks also enable the modeling of nonlinear relationships between the parameters affecting the event. The purpose of this research is to establish models for sediment amounts in the Tigris River at the Diyarbakir measurement station in Turkey. Rainfall, temperature and discharge are taken as independent variables in the models, whereas sediment is taken as the dependent variable. Fourteen different models are generated using ANNs and Regression Analysis (RA). The results are compared with each other and with the observed data. The relative error and determination coefficient are used as comparison criteria. It is concluded that due to their nonlinear modeling capability, ANNs give better results than RA.     

Estimation of Tsunami Hazard in New Zealand due to South American Earthquakes

We develop a probabilistic model for estimating the tsunami hazard along the coast of New Zealand due to plate-interface earthquakes along the South American subduction zone. To do this we develop statistical and physical models for several stages in the process of tsunami generation and propagation, and develop a method for combining these models to produce hazard estimates using a Monte-Carlo technique. This process is largely analogous to that used for seismic hazard modelling, but is distinguished from it by the use of a physical model to represent the tsunami propagation, as opposed to the use of empirical attenuation models for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis.     

Variability in rainfall threshold for debris flow after the Chi-Chi earthquake in central Taiwan, China

The purpose of this study is to analyze variability in rainfall threshold for debris flow （critical rainfall for debris flow triggering） after the ML 7.3 Chi-Chi earthquake in central Taiwan in 1999. Two study sites with different geological conditions were surveyed in the earthquake area. Streambed surveys were conducted to continuously monitor debris flows between 1999 and 2006. During the 7-year study period, every debris flow event was identified, and the streambed characterized. Results show that the rainfall threshold for debris flow was remarkably lower just after the Chi-Chi Earthquake, but gradually recovered. To date, this rainfall threshold is still lower than the original level prior to the earthquake. This variability in rainfall threshold is closely related to the mount of sediment material in the initiation area of debris flow, which increased rapidly due to landslides resulting from the earthquake. With the increase in sediment material, the rainfall threshold was lowered severely during the first year following the Chi-Chi earthquake. However, heavy rainfalls mobilized the sediment material, causing debris flows and transporting sediment downstream. With the decrease in sediment material, the rainfall threshold recovered gradually over time. Furthermore, debris flows occurred only in the subbasins that had sufficient sediment material to cause significant movement. Hence, these results confirm that the sediment material in the initiation area of debris flow is a crucial component of the rainfall threshold for debris flow.     

A comparison of concentrations of fission products,radon 222, and cloud condensation nuclei over the North Atlantic

The concentrations of airborne fission products were observed to be air mass dependent during a cruise of the USNSHayes from Norfolk, Va to Athens, Greece in May–June 1977. Minimum concentrations of fission products, radon, and CCN (cloud condensation nuclei) were measured in maritime air which had previously transited northern North America. Higher fission products, radon, and CCN concentrations were measured in recent, continental air traceable to mid North America or central Europe. These data are consistent with either entrainment by strong winds of previously precipitated fission products (the continental effect) or greater transfer of fission products from the stratosphere to low levels by tropospheric folding.