共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 531 毫秒
1.
为提高实时洪水预报精度,提出了一种基于动态系统响应曲线洪水预报误差修正新方法。该方法将动态系统响应曲线引入洪水预报误差修正中,建立一种向误差源头追溯的动态反馈修正模型。此修正方法将新安江模型产流以下的部分作为响应系统, 用线性差分近似代替非线性系统响应函数的偏导数值,得到时段产流量所对应的系统响应曲线。用实测流量和计算流量之间的差值作为信息,使用最小二乘估计原理,对产流量进行修正, 再用修正后的产流量重新计算出流过程。该修正方法分别用理想案例和王家坝流域进行检验,结果证明此方法效果比传统二阶自回归模型有明显提高。 相似文献
2.
Real-time flood forecasting of the Tiber river in Rome 总被引:3,自引:2,他引:1
An adaptive, conceptual model for real-time flood forecasting of the Tiber river in Rome is proposed. This model simulates
both rainfall-runoff transformations, to reproduce the contributions of 37 ungauged sub-basins that covered about 30% of the
catchment area, and flood routing processes in the hydrographic network. The adaptive component of the model concerns the
rainfall-runoff analysis: at any time step the whole set of the model parameters is recalibrated by minimizing the objective
function constituted by the sum of the squares of the differences between observed and computed water surface elevations (or
discharges). The proposed model was tested through application under real-time forecasting conditions for three historical
flood events. To assess the forecasting accuracy, to support the decision maker and to reduce the possibility of false or
missed warnings, confidence intervals of the forecasted water surface elevations (or discharges), computed according to a
Monte Carlo procedure, are provided. The evaluation of errors in the prediction of peak values, of coefficients of persistence
and of the amplitude of confidence intervals of prediction shows the possibility to develop a flood forecast model with a
lead time of 12 h, which is useful for civil protection actions. 相似文献
3.
通过数据同化方法合理地将实时水文观测数据融入到洪水预报模型中,可提高洪水预报模型的实时性和精确度。选取沿程断面流量、水位和糙率系数作为代表水流状态的基本粒子,以监测断面实测水位数据作为观测信息,建立了基于粒子滤波数据同化算法的河道洪水实时概率预报模型。模型应用于黄河中下游河道洪水预报计算的结果表明,采用粒子滤波方法同化观测水位后,不仅可以直接校正水位,同时也可以有效地校正流量和糙率,为未来时刻模型预报计算提供更准确的水流初始条件和糙率取值区间,进而有效地提高模型预报结果的精度,给出合理的概率预报区间。不同预报期的预报结果表明,随着预报期的增长,同化效果减弱,模型预报结果的精度会有所降低,水位概率预报结果受粒子间糙率不同的影响不确定性增加,而流量概率预报结果受给定模型边界条件的影响不确定性降低。所提出模型可以有效同化真实水位观测数据,适合应用于实际的洪水预报工作中。 相似文献
4.
Limitations of real-time models for forecasting river flooding from monsoon rainfall 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Very intense rainfall during the southwest and northeast monsoons causes severe river flooding in India. Some traditional
techniques used for real-time forecasting of flooding involve the relationship between effective rainfall and direct surface
runoff, which simplifies the complex interactions between rainfall and runoff processes. There are, however, serious problems
in deducing these variables in real time, so it is highly desirable to have a real-time flood forecasting model that would
directly relate the observed discharge hydrograph to the observed rainfall. The storage routing model described by Baba and
Hoshi (1997), Tanaka et al. (1997), and Baba et al. (2000), and a simplified version of this model, have been used to compute observed river discharge directly from observed hourly
rainfall. This method has been used to study rainfall–runoff data of the Ajay River Basin in eastern India. Five intense rainfall
events of this basin were studied. Our results showed that the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of discharge prediction for these
five events was 98.6%, 94.3%, 86.9%, 85.6%, and 67%. The hindcast for the first two events is regarded as completely satisfactory
whereas for the next two events it is deemed reasonable and for the fifth it is unsatisfactory. It seems the models will yield
accurate hindcast if the rainfall is uniform over the drainage basin. When the rainfall is not uniform the performance of
the model is unsatisfactory. In future this problem can, in principle, be corrected by using a weighted amount if rainfall
is based upon multiple rain-gauge observations over the drainage basin. This would provide some measure of the dispersion
in the rainfall. The model also seems unable to simulate flooding events with multiple peaks. 相似文献
5.
由于预报模型的局限性和实时信息的不完善,洪水预报过程存在许多误差,而基于图形交互式修正技术是消除预报误差的有效手段。分析了水文预报过程交互式修正技术在洪水预报工作中的重要性,介绍了过程拟合平滑技术和样条插值技术,基于此基础上研究实现了以橡皮筋形式交互式修正水文预报过程的技术,并应用于洪水预报系统中。研究实例表明,该技术使用方便,有效地提高了洪水预报精度。 相似文献
6.
Flash flood routing modeling for levee-breaks and overbank flows due to typhoon events in a complicated river system 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
There has been a yearly increase in precipitation in Taiwan, consistent with trends seen across the world. In the summer and
fall, typhoons or tropical cyclones with torrential rainfall frequently occur as a result of Taiwan’s subtropical climate.
Flash floods may cause a levee-break and/or the overtopping of banks at narrow neck locations in a river system, which may
in turn produce inundation in urban areas. Therefore, a model that predicts flash floods is of vital importance for river
management. The present study is based on a flash flood routing model, which incorporates levee-break and overbank functions
to calculate the discharge hydrographs in the complicated Danshuei River system of northern Taiwan. The numerical model was
calibrated and verified against observed water stages using three typhoon events. The results indicate reasonable agreement
between the model simulations and the observed data. The model was then used to calculate the levee-break and overbank flow
hydrographs due to Typhoon Talim (2005) and Typhoon Nari (2001), respectively. The simulated results indicate that several
parameters significantly affect the flow hydrograph during a levee-break and should be carefully monitored when levee-break
events occur in the river system. The simulated water stages at several stations are consistent with observed data from Typhoon
Nari. The simulated overbank flow results quantitatively agree with reported information. The data also confirm that most
of the overbank events occurred at the upper reaches of the Keelung River, consistent with the low levee height protection. 相似文献
7.
8.
A system for effectively forecasting flash floods of the Arno River (Tuscany, Italy) should provide a flood warning with 10–12 h of lead time, primarily in order to evacuate the city of Florence. This goal may be achieved by acquiring and processing meteorological and hydrological data in real-time and, accordingly, by releasing alarms at different levels of reliability and concern. Through the application of both procedural language and expert system techniques, a prototype was developed which can readily handle a variety of relevant information and make predictions on flood hazard in Florence. The system was fairly successfully tested by processing simple meteorological data which enable a 24 hour forewarning to be released. 相似文献
9.
M. Masoud 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2015,8(5):2587-2606
Flash flood forecasting of catchment systems is one of the challenges especially in the arid ungauged basins. This study is attempted to estimate the relationship between rainfall and runoff and also to provide flash flood hazard warnings for ungauged basins based on the hydrological characteristics using geographic information system (GIS). Morphometric characteristics of drainage basins provide a means for describing the hydrological behavior of a basin. The study examined the morphometric parameters of Wadi Rabigh with emphasis on its implication for hydrologic processes through the integration analysis between morphometric parameters and GIS techniques. Data for this study were obtained from ASTER data for digital elevation model (DEM) with 30-m resolution, topographic map (1:50,000), and geological maps (1,250,000) which were subject to field confirmation. About 36 morphometric parameters were measured and calculated, and interlinked to produce nine effective parameters for the evaluation of the flash flood hazard degree of the study area. Based on nine effective morphometric parameters that directly influence on the hydrologic behavior of the Wadi through time of concentration, the flash flood hazard of the Rabigh basin and its subbasins was identified and classified into three groups (High, medium, and low hazard degree). The present work proved that the physiographic features of drainage basin contribute to the possibility of a flash flood hazard evaluation for any particular drainage area. The study provides details on the flash flood prone subbasins and the mitigation measures. This study also helps to plan rainwater harvesting and watershed management in the flash flood alert zones. Based on two historical data events of rainfall and the corresponding maximum flow rate, morphometric parameters and Stormwater Management and Design Aid software (SMADA 6), it could be to generate the hydrograph of Wadi Rabigh basin. As a result of the model applied to Wadi Rabigh basin, a rainfall event of a total of 22 mm with a duration of 5 h at the station nearby the study area, which has an exceedance probability of 50 % and return period around 2 years, produces a discharge volume of 15.2?×?106 m3 at the delta, outlet of the basin, as 12.5 mm of the rainfall infiltrates (recharge). 相似文献
10.
Valérie Estupina Borrell Jacques Chorda Denis Dartus 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2005,337(13):1109-1119
Flash-flood events resulting from paroxystic meteorological events concentrated in time and space are insufficiently documented as they produce destructive effects. They are hardly measurable and present single features that are not transposable to another event. In the South of France, the flash flood of November 1999 gives a perfect illustration of these characteristics. The physical complexity of the process and consequently the volume and the variety of the data to take into account are incompatible with the real time constraint allocated to the forecasters confronted to the occurrence of such phenomena. So, we have to make choices to afford acceptable simplifications to the complete mechanical model. MARINE (‘Modélisation de l'Anticipation du Ruissellement et des Inondations pour des évéNements Extrêmes’) is the operational and robust tool we developed for flash-flood forecasting. This model complies with the criterions of real-time simulation. It is a physically based distributed model composed of two parts: first the flood runoff process simulation in the upstream part of the basin modelled from a rainfall–runoff approach, then the flood propagation in the main rivers described by the Saint-Venant equations. It integrates remote sensed data – Digital Elevation Model, land-use map, hydrographic network for the observations from satellites and the rainfall evolution from meteorological radar. The main goal of MARINE is to supply real time pertinent information to the forecasters. Results obtained on the Orbieu River (Aude, France) show that this model is able to supply pertinent flood hydrograph with a sufficient precision for the forecasting service to take the appropriate safety decisions. Furthermore, MARINE has already been tested in the French National Flood Forecasting Service of Haute-Garonne in real conditions. To cite this article: V. Estupina Borrell et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005). 相似文献
11.
Watershed urbanization and changing flood behavior across the Los Angeles metropolitan region 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
This article examines the effects of watershed urbanization on stream flood behavior in the Los Angeles metropolitan region.
Stream gauge data, spatially distributed rainfall data, land use/land cover, and census population data were used to quantify
change in flood behavior and urbanization in multiple watersheds. Increase in flood discharge started at the very early stage
of the urbanization when the population density was relatively low but the rate of increase of flood discharge varied across
watersheds depending on the distribution of the imperviousness surface and flood mitigation practices. This spatial variability
in rainfall–runoff indices and the increasing flood risk across the metropolitan region has posed a challenge to the conventional
flood emergency management, which usually responds to flood damages rather than being concerned with the broader issues of
land use, land cover, and planning. This study pointed out that alternative land use planning and flood management practices
could be mitigating the urban flood implemented hazard. 相似文献
12.
Li Li Yang Hong Jiahu Wang Robert F. Adler Frederick S. Policelli Shahid Habib Daniel Irwn Tesfaye Korme Lawrence Okello 《Natural Hazards》2009,50(1):109-123
Many researchers seek to take advantage of the recently available and virtually uninterrupted supply of satellite-based rainfall
information as an alternative and supplement to the ground-based observations in order to implement a cost-effective flood
prediction in many under-gauged regions around the world. Recently, NASA Applied Science Program has partnered with USAID
and African-RCMRD to implement an operational water-hazard warning system, SERVIR-Africa. The ultimate goal of the project
is to build up disaster management capacity in East Africa by providing local governmental officials and international aid
organizations a practical decision-support tool in order to better assess emerging flood impacts and to quantify spatial extent
of flood risk, as well as to respond to such flood emergencies more expediently. The objective of this article is to evaluate
the applicability of integrating NASA’s standard satellite precipitation product with a flood prediction model for disaster
management in Nzoia, sub-basin of Lake Victoria, Africa. This research first evaluated the TMPA real-time rainfall data against
gauged rainfall data from the year 2002 through 2006. Then, the gridded Xinanjiang Model was calibrated to Nzoia basin for
period of 1985–2006. Benchmark streamflow simulations were produced with the calibrated hydrological model using the rain
gauge and observed streamflow data. Afterward, continuous discharge predictions forced by TMPA 3B42RT real-time data from
2002 through 2006 were simulated, and acceptable results were obtained in comparison with the benchmark performance according
to the designated statistic indices such as bias ratio (20%) and NSCE (0.67). Moreover, it is identified that the flood prediction
results were improved with systematically bias-corrected TMPA rainfall data with less bias (3.6%) and higher NSCE (0.71).
Although the results justify to suggest to us that TMPA real-time data can be acceptably used to drive hydrological models
for flood prediction purpose in Nzoia basin, continuous progress in space-borne rainfall estimation technology toward higher
accuracy and higher spatial resolution is highly appreciated. Finally, it is also highly recommended that to increase flood
forecasting lead time, more reliable and more accurate short- or medium-range quantitative precipitation forecasts is a must. 相似文献
13.
The Paraná River is one of the largest drainage systems in the Americas. Its hydrology is characterized by an active teleconnection
with the ENSO, and by a significant discharge increase trend, evident since the mid-1970s. An Eh–pH data set collected in
the Paraná’s middle stretch suggests that large flood events, such as the one triggered by the 1982–1983 ENSO, are discernible
in the plot, probably due to the influx of water draining flood plain water bodies. The total (particulate + dissolved) concentration
of a set of heavy metals (Cr, Mn, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Cd, and Pb) was determined in a downriver survey of the middle stretch.
With the exception of Cu, Cd, and Pb, the metals exhibit a significantly increasing concentration trend towards the river
mouth. The slopes of the regression lines imply that Zn and Ni, on one hand, and Mn and Cr, on the other would have common
controlling sources. Another set of analyses were performed during the 1982–1983 flooding event; besides an increased variability
observable during the flood arrival, most elements, with the only exception of Pb, did not show a variability coherent with
the discharge series. 相似文献
14.
采用加拿大区域性中尺度大气模式MC2(Canadian Mesoscale Compressible Community)和新安江模型单向耦合模型系统,对2005年7月4~15日发生在淮河流域的一场暴雨洪水,进行了实时预报.采用王家坝以上流域的实测降水和王家坝断面的实测洪水资料,对MC2预报降水的时空分布和陆气耦合模型预报的洪水过程进行了分析.结果表明,MC2对该场强降水过程具有很好的预报能力,陆气耦合模型有效地增长了洪水预报的预见期,具有很好的应用前景. 相似文献
15.
Peak discharge of a Pleistocene lava-dam outburst flood in Grand Canyon, Arizona, USA 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
The failure of a lava dam 165,000 yr ago produced the largest known flood on the Colorado River in Grand Canyon. The Hyaloclastite Dam was up to 366 m high, and geochemical evidence linked this structure to outburst-flood deposits that occurred for 32 km downstream. Using the Hyaloclastite outburst-flood deposits as paleostage indicators, we used dam-failure and unsteady flow modeling to estimate a peak discharge and flow hydrograph. Failure of the Hyaloclastite Dam released a maximum 11 × 109 m3 of water in 31 h. Peak discharges, estimated from uncertainty in channel geometry, dam height, and hydraulic characteristics, ranged from 2.3 to 5.3 × 105 m3 s−1 for the Hyaloclastite outburst flood. This discharge is an order of magnitude greater than the largest known discharge on the Colorado River (1.4 × 104 m3 s−1) and the largest peak discharge resulting from failure of a constructed dam in the USA (6.5 × 104 m3 s−1). Moreover, the Hyaloclastite outburst flood is the oldest documented Quaternary flood and one of the largest to have occurred in the continental USA. The peak discharge for this flood ranks in the top 30 floods (>105 m3 s−1) known worldwide and in the top ten largest floods in North America. 相似文献
16.
Environmental isotopic and hydrochemical study of groundwater in the Ejina Basin,northwest China 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
The study investigates the groundwater evolution and its residence time in the Ejina Basin, northwest China according to isotope
and hydrochemical analyses results. The groundwater chemistry is mainly controlled by the dissolution of halite, Glauber’s
salt, gypsum, dolomite and calcite, also influenced by other processes such as evaporation, ion exchange, and deposition.
Based on tritium content in atmospheric precipitation and by adopting a model with exponential time distribution function,
the mean residence time of the unconfined aquifer groundwater with fairly high tritium activities (21–49 TU) is evaluated.
The results show that these groundwaters have low residence time (5–120 years) and are renewable. In contrast, the deep confined
groundwaters are tritium-free and radiocarbon values range from 18.3 to 26.7 pmc. According to the most commonly used 14C correction models, the radiocarbon groundwater ages were calculated which yield ages of approximately 4,087–9,364 years
BP. Isotopic signatures indicate formation of deep confined groundwaters in a colder and wetter climate during the late Pleistocene
and Holocene. It is suggested that long-term, rational water usage guide should be set up for the Heihe River Basin as a whole
to permit a considerable discharge to the Ejina Basin. 相似文献
17.
山洪影响调查评价与预警体系建设方法研究——以昌江芦溪河段为例 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
以山洪影响调查成果为基础,评价了昌江芦溪河段受洪水影响的程度,建立了水位预警指标体系和水文预报模型。得出的主要结论有:昌江芦溪河段洪水影响机率不到5年一遇,罗村最典型,个别年份重复受灾,属典型的山洪影响威胁区;以既有水文站点为基础,建立了水文站点的水位与上下游村落淹没基础信息的量化关联,形成"1对N"的预警关联体系,标定了集合对象的成灾水位(75.50m),分析结论与实际调查结果吻合;研究了昌江流域产汇流规律,建立了预报模型。本文的评价思路与预警体系构架方法可以作为完善山洪灾害非工程措施、中小河流水文监测系统实际应用的参考,对各地正在开展的山洪灾害调查评价工作具有参考意义。 相似文献
18.
为解决河网水情动态系统的数据同化问题,将水情量测数据作为内边界条件,建立了一个基于误差最小二乘原理的河网水情数据同化耦合模型.同时,为了有效控制水情状态变量的校正程度,避免因校正过度而破坏河网系统的水量平衡关系,构建了一个能有效控制及平衡各量测变量校正程度的权重矩阵.通过模拟算例和实例应用,系统检验了模型在河网水情仿真与预报中的实时校正能力,并得到了理想的结果.结果表明:模型理论完备、构建简便、数据同化可控性好,能够有效地进行河网水情动态系统的数据同化,提高河网水情仿真与预报的精度. 相似文献
19.
Paula Etala 《Natural Hazards》2009,51(1):79-95
The ability of the SMARA storm surge numerical prediction system to reproduce local effects in estuarine and coastal winds
was recently improved by considering one-way coupling of the air–sea momentum exchange through the wave stress, and best forecasting
practices for downscaling. The inclusion of long period atmospheric pressure forcing in tide and tide/surge calculations corrected
a systematic error in the surge, produced by the South Atlantic Ocean quasi-stationary pressure patterns. The maximum forecast
range for the storm surge at Buenos Aires provided by the real-time use of water level observations is approximately 12 h.
The best available water level prediction is the 6-h forecast (nowcast) based on the closest water level observations. The
24-h forecast from the numerical models slightly improves this nowcast. Although the numerical forecast accuracy degrades
after the first 48 h, the improvement to the full range observation-based prediction is maintained at the inner Río de la
Plata area and extends to the first 3 days at the intermediate navigation channels. 相似文献
20.
在水文与水动力学相结合的预报模型中,对于水文模型计算有误差,造成水动力学区间旁侧入流与实际不吻合情况,依据水量平衡原理,对旁侧入流进行反演校正。采用四点线性隐格式求解圣维南方程组,结合卡尔曼滤波技术建立以水位、流量作为综合状态量的卡尔曼滤波状态空间方程。采用反问题的思想把校正后的水位、流量不平衡量反馈到旁侧入流中,修正原有的区间来水量,进而修正预报期的旁侧入流。选择长江干流寸滩至万县河段,以及长江下游大通至镇江段进行演算,分别采用三峡水库135m蓄水阶段的水文资料和1998年水文资料进行6h洪水预报,结果表明旁侧入流反演校正方法是可行的。 相似文献