Geological-geomorphological analysis and 14C dating of submoraine organogenic deposits within the Renardbreen outer margin, Wedel Jarlsberg Land, Spitsbergen

Amazing organogenic deposits were encountered within the terminal moraine zone of Renardbreen, north-western part of Wedel Jarlsberg Land. Pollen analyses and ^,14C dating locate the deposits at the Middle Late Subatlantic transition. The position of these deposits indicates possible glacial advances 3,500-2,000 years BP and during the Little Ice Age, respectively. Remnants of human activity at least as old as the 9th century were also found within organogenic deposits.     

黑河下游地区柽柳沙丘的气候与环境记录

对黑河下游地区柽柳沙丘沉积剖面进行AMS¹⁴C定年及沉积物粒度和Hg含量的综合分析,探讨了该区域从18世纪中期到21世纪初的气候与环境变化。结果表明:沙丘沉积物以细沙为主,粒度频率分布曲线呈明显的单峰形态,反映了单一的风力沉积作用;>100 μm的粗颗粒含量变化很好地指示了该区域冬季风的强弱变化,并记录了小冰期末期以来气候转暖的过程以及现代暖期中两个相对寒冷时期——20世纪10-20年代和50-60年代。沙丘沉积物中Hg主要来源于人类的工业活动,剖面Hg含量存在3个峰值,分别对应18世纪末的西班牙美洲地区银矿开采、19世纪中后期的北美淘金热、二次世界大战及战后经济复苏。此外,剖面中有两个样品Hg含量异常升高,其原因可能是1815年和1883年印尼的两次大规模火山喷发而引起的全球Hg沉降增加。     

Reconstructing fluctuations of a shallow East African lake during the past 1800 yrs from sediment stratigraphy in a submerged crater basin

The sedimentology of an 8.22-m long core of late-Holocene deposits in the submerged Crescent Island Crater basin of Lake Naivasha, Kenya, is used to reconstruct decade-scale fluctuations in lake-surface elevation during the past 1800 yrs. Lake-depth inference for the past 1000 yrs is semi-quantitative, based on (1) relationships between lake level and bottom dynamics predicted by wave theory, and (2) historical validation of the effects of lake-level fluctuation and hydrologic closure on sediment composition in Crescent Island Crater and nearby Lake Oloidien. In these shallow fluctuating lakes, organic-carbon variation in a lithological sequence from clayey mud to algal gyttja is positively correlated with lake depth at the time of deposition, because the focusing of oxidized littoral sediments which dilute autochthonous organic matter before burial is reduced during highstands. The lake-level reconstruction for Lake Naivasha agrees with other adequately dated lake-level records from equatorial East Africa in its implication of dry climatic conditions during the Mediaeval Warm Period and generally wet conditions during the Little Ice Age. Crescent Island Crater survived widespread aridity in the early-19th century as a fresh weedy pond, while the main basin of Lake Naivasha and many other shallow East African lakes fell dry and truncated their sediment archive of Little Ice Age climatic variability.     

Human Impact Since Medieval Times and Recent Ecological Restorationin a Mediterranean Lake: The Laguna Zoñar, Southern Spain

The multidisciplinary study of sediment cores from Laguna Zoñar (37°29′00′′ N, 4°41′22′′ W, 300 m a.s.l., Andalucía, Spain) provides a detailed record of environmental, climatic and anthropogenic changes in a Mediterranean watershed since Medieval times, and an opportunity to evaluate the lake restoration policies during the last decades. The paleohydrological reconstructions show fluctuating lake levels since the end of the Medieval Warm Period (ca. AD 1300) till the late 19th century and a more acute dry period during the late 19th century – early 20th century, after the end of the Little Ice Age. Human activities have played a significant role in Laguna Zoñar hydrological changes since the late 19th century, when the outlet was drained, and particularly in the mid-20th century (till 1982) when the spring waters feeding the lake were diverted for human use. Two main periods of increased human activities in the watershed are recorded in the sediments. The first started with the Christian conquest and colonization of the Guadalquivir River Valley (13th century) particularly after the fall of the Granada Kingdom (15th century). The second one corresponds to the late 19th century when more land was dedicated to olive cultivation. Intensification of soil erosion occurred in the mid-20th century, after the introduction of farm machinery. The lake was declared a protected area in the early 1980s, when some agricultural practices were restricted, and conservation measures implemented. As a consequence, the lake level increased, and some littoral zones were submerged. Pollen indicators reflect this limnological change during the last few decades. Geochemical indicators show a relative decrease in soil erosion, but not changes in the amount of chemical fertilizers reaching the lake. This study provides an opportunity to evaluate the relative significance of human vs. climatic factors in lake hydrology and watershed changes during historical times. Paleolimnological reconstructions should be taken into account by natural resources agencies to better define lake management policies, and to assess the results of restoration policies.     

小冰期气候的研究进展

小冰期是近2ka来的一个重要气候事件,又是目前全球变暖的背景事件,已成为古气候和古环境研究的热点。对此,科学工作者已经做了大量的研究。本文广泛综合前人研究的成果,介绍了小冰期的概况,认为1450-1890年是小冰期的时限,在此期间有三次冷期和两次暖期。冷期发生在1450-1510年、1560-1690年和1790-1890年,其中第二次冷期表现最甚;暖期发生在1510-1560年和1690-1790年。太阳活动和火山活动是小冰期气候变化的主要因素。并重点从冰芯、树轮、湖泊沉积、历史文献和沙漠地层等方面综述了近年来国内外对小冰期气候变化的研究现状。     

赣北黄茅潭湖泊沉积记录的240年以来古洪水事件

古洪水研究是近几十年来全球变化研究的一个热点,同时也是难点。本文利用赣北黄茅潭的湖泊沉积,建立了小冰期以来全球变暖背景下的区域洪水记录。采用²¹⁰Pb和¹³⁷Cs方法厘定了地层年代,基于粒度与元素地球化学指标的对比分析,揭示了器测记录(1950年)以来指标记录的特点与区域日降水超过50 mm天数的关系,认为黄茅潭HMT-01孔粒度(包括粗粉砂+砂/粘土比值、平均粒径)和Zr/Rb、Ti/Rb、Zr/Fe比值可作为洪水指标记录,共识别出1950-2010年期间记载的13次洪水事件中的11次。基于这些指标记录及指标特点,共识别1769-1950年间由历史文献记录的31次洪水事件中的23次,识别率达74.2%。研究表明：①湖泊沉积中Zr/Rb、Ti/Rb、Zr/Fe比值和粒度参数(平均粒径、粗粉砂+砂/粘土)作为洪水指标,对洪水事件沉积有较好的指示作用,且Zr/Rb比值对洪水事件的检出率较高;②黄茅潭流域洪水发生频率暖期高于冷期;③年代际尺度上,1820s-1840s,1860s-1870s为19世纪冷期黄茅潭洪水高频期,这两个阶段对应东亚夏季风偏强,长江中下游地区降雨较多;20世纪赣北黄茅潭洪水基本随1920s-1940s,1980s-1990s两个变暖阶段而高频出现,与长江中下游大洪水演变特点基本一致。研究结果为利用湖泊沉积记录反演过去的洪水变化,延长洪水序列、认识洪水规律提供了一定的科学依据。     

Holocene glacial advances and moraine formation at Albrechtbreen, Edgeøya, Svalbard

Terrace remnants close to the marine limit as well as two separate moraine ridges are observed in front of the glacier Albrechtbreen. The stacking of marine sediments from an original elevation of ca. 60–80 m a.s.l. into the Little Ice Age Moraine gives evidence for a considerably smaller glacier following the early Holocene deglaciation compared to that of the present. The outer moraine is composed of glacial diamicton. Radiocarbon datings of whale ribs, shell fragments and a log taken from sediment in front of Albrechtbreen indicate that the initial deglaciation occurred before 9, 400 B.P. and that the outer moraine was formed during a younger Holocene glacial advance. Lithological differences between the two moraine ridges suggest that the first ice advance occurred during a period with limited permafrost, whereas permafrost was more extensive during the Little Ice Age.     

A lichenometric study of the Neoglacial end moraines of the Okstindan Glaciers,North Norway,and comparisons with similar recent Scandinavian studies

A lichenometric investigation of the 14 major Neoglacial end moraine sequences formed by the Okstindan Glaciers revealed the presence of a similar ‘Little Ice Age’ sequence, while in four instances, older Neoglacial end moraines occurred outside the former sequence. Using lichenometric and historical data from Okstindan and other Scandinavian glacierized regions, the formation of the ‘Little Ice Age’ and moraines was assigned to the period between A.D. 1920 and an undefined part of the 18th century. The older end moraines could not be lichenometrically dated, though it was evident that they were considerably older than the others. Comparisons of lichenometric data collected using different sampling and lichen measuring methods showed that significantly different results were obtained.     

Recent morphological channel changes in a deltaı̈c environment. The case of the Rhône River,France

Channel morphological changes were measured at two sites within the Rhône delta along the main channel of the Rhône River over one century. Results show an average erosion rate of 2.8 mm year⁻¹ during the 20th century and decreasing to <1.5 mm year⁻¹ since the 1960s. Erosion affected site 2 more than site 1 but cross-sections can alternately be in erosion or accretion depending on bed topography and/or floor lithology. Riverbed adjustments are partly explained by the boundary shear stress and specific stream power but local factors also influence the Rhône River evolution. Results compared with those obtained upstream or in other European rivers suggest that the lower Rhône River has developed an original response to external stresses: the first part of the 20th century is characterised by an important degradation followed by a decrease in the incision rate since the 1960s. The initiation of the erosion phase is assumed to be linked to the end of the Little Ice Age, to the reforestation of the alpine hillsides, to the earlier management and to the reduction of the sedimentary yield (according to the literature). The second phase possibly corresponds to the relaxation period. In this perspective, the effects of dams are probably less significant than we would suppose up to now. It implies that such a large river records morphological responses which may vary all along the fluvial system in relation to the time and space scales involved.     

Small valley bottom deposits in the sandy districts of the Sarthe basin (France): climatic and/or human origin?

The study of the small valley bottom deposits in a sandy district where several recent erosional events have occurred makes it possible to distinguish deposits, which are caused by climatic oscillations from those induced by both climate and human activities. The coarse alluvium with flints, which reached the main valleys prior to the Subboreal, was transported by greater flows than those which resulted from later human-induced flood discharges, where flints were not evacuated from the small valleys. Radiocarbon dates of peat set those deposits in the Iron Age, in the transition from Antiquity to the Medieval period, at the end of the “optimum climatique de l'an Mil” and during the Little Ice Age. At the present time, human-induced flood discharges reach again the main valleys.     

Paleolimnological records of recent glacier recession in the Rwenzori Mountains,Uganda-D. R. Congo

The status of tropical glaciers is enormously important to our understanding of past, present, and future climate change, yet lack of continuous quantitative records of alpine glacier extent on the highest mountains of tropical East Africa prior to the 20th century has left the timing and drivers of recent glacier recession in the region equivocal. Here we investigate recent changes (the last 150–700 years) in lacustrine sedimentation, glacier extent, and biogeochemical processes in the Rwenzori Mountains (Uganda- Democratic Republic of Congo) by comparing sedimentological (organic and siliciclastic component determined by loss-on-ignition; LOI) and organic geochemical profiles (carbon and nitrogen abundance, ratio, and isotopic composition of sedimentary organic matter) from lakes occupying presently glaciated catchments against similar profiles from lakes located in catchments lacking glaciers. The siliciclastic content of sediments in the ‘glacial lakes’ significantly decreases towards the present, whereas ‘non-glacial lakes’ generally show weak trends in their siliciclastic content over time, demonstrating that changes in the siliciclastic content of glacial lake sediments primarily record fluctuations in glacier extent. Radiometric dating of our sediment cores indicates that prior to their late 19th-century recession Rwenzori glaciers stood at expanded ‘Little Ice Age’ positions for several centuries under a regionally dry climate regime, and that recession was underway by 1870 AD, during a regionally wet episode. These findings suggest that the influence of late 19th century reductions in precipitation in triggering Rwenzori glacier recession is weaker than previously thought. Our organic geochemical data indicate that glacier retreat has significantly affected carbon cycling in Afroalpine lakes, but trends in aquatic ecosystem functioning are variable among lakes and require more detailed analysis.     

The Little Ice Age in the Canadian Rockies

This paper reviews the evidence and history of glacier fluctuations during the Little Ice Age (LIA) in the Canadian Rockies. Episodes of synchronous glacier advance occurred in the 12th–13th, early 18th and throughout the 19th centuries. Regional ice cover was probably greatest in the mid-19th century, although in places the early 18th century advance was more extensive. Glaciers have lost over 25% of their area in the 20th century. Selective preservation of the glacier record furnishes an incomplete chronology of events through the 14th–17th centuries. In contrast, varve sequences provide continuous, annually resolved records of sediments for at least the last millennium in some highly glacierized catchments. Such records have been used to infer glacier fluctuations. Evaluation of recent proxy climate reconstructions derived from tree-rings provides independent evidence of climate fluctuations over the last millennium. Most regional glacier advances follow periods of reduced summer temperatures, reconstructed from tree rings particularly ca. 1190–1250, 1280–1340, 1690s and the 1800s. Reconstructed periods of higher precipitation at Banff, Alberta since 1500 are 1515–1550, 1585–1610, 1660–1680 and the 1880s. Glacier advances in the early 1700s, the late 1800s and, in places, the 1950–1970s reflect both increased precipitation and reduced summer temperatures. Negative glacier mass balances from 1976 to 1995 were caused by decreased winter balances. The glacier fluctuation record does not contain a simple climate signal: it is a complex response to several interacting factors that operate at different timescales. Evaluation of climate proxies over the last millennium indicates continuous variability at several superimposed timescales, dominated by decade–century patterns. Only the 19th century shows a long interval of sustained cold summers. This suggests that simplistic concepts of climate over this period should be abandoned and replaced with more realistic records based on continuous proxy data series. The use of the term LIA should be restricted to describing a period of extended glacier cover rather than being used to define a period with specific climate conditions.     

The Little Ice Age recorded in sediments of a small dystrophic mountain lake in southern Poland

We inferred the temperature and environmental conditions of Smreczynski Staw Lake in the Tatra Mountains, southern Poland, from a sediment record covering the last 1,500 years. Paleobiological methods (cladocera, chironomid, and diatom analyses) were used together with sedimentological analysis and dating. These studies provide new information about the timing and character of climate fluctuations during the Little Ice Age (LIA). The Medieval Warm Period ended in the Tatra region at the beginning of the thirteenth century, followed by the first episode of the LIA. The LIA was a relatively long but unstable period. The first part of the LIA was cold in the Tatra Mountains, without evidence of increasing precipitation, while the second part, after AD 1540, was cold and humid. The LIA terminated in the Tatra Mountains at the beginning of the twentieth century, although some aspects of its climatic and sedimentological regime continued until the 1920s. We also found some evidence of warming and acidification during the twentieth century.     

Recent marginal changes of the Mittivakkat Glacier,Southeast Greenland and the discovery of remains of reindeer (Rangifer tarandus), polar bear (Ursus maritimus) and peaty material

Geografisk Tidsskrift, Danish Journal of Geography 108(1):137–142, 2008

During field observations in August 2005 antler remains of a reindeer were found at a recently deglaciated site at about 500 m asl., and bones from a polar bear were found at about 300 m asl. along the margin of Mittivakkat Glacier, Southeast Greenland. Radio carbon dating determined the age of the samples to 720 ¹⁴C years and 350 ¹⁴C years, respectively. In August 2006 old surface vegetation covering peaty material became exposed due to ice recession close to the site where the antler was found. The radio carbon age of small roots from the material was determined to 1530 ¹⁴C years, and is in agreement with dating of woody remains of Salix glauca found close by, at the top of a nearby nunatak in 1999. The antler indicates that reindeer lived in the area when the glacier began to advance from a position where it was close to or smaller than today. The vegetation surface and peaty material indicate that the climate was warmer before the onset of the Little Ice Age in Southeast Greenland than today.     

Quantifying temporal changes in Tornionjoki river ice breakup dates and spring temperatures in Lapland since 1802

Cryophenological records （i.e. observational series of freeze and breakup dates of ice） are of great importance when assessing the environmental variations in cold regions. Here we employed the extraordinarily long observational records of river ice breakup dates and air temperatures in northern Fennoscandia to examine their interrelations since 1802. Historical observations, along with modern data, comprise the informational setting for this analysis carried out using t-test. Temperature history of April-May season was used as cli- matic counterpart for the breakup timings. Both records （temperature and breakup） showed seven sub-periods during which their local means were distinctly different relative to preced- ing and subsequent sub-periods. The starting and ending years of these sub-periods oc- curred in temporal agreement. The main findings of this study are summarized as follows： （1） the synchrony between the temperature and river ice breakup records ruled out the possibility that the changes would have occurred due to quality of the historical series （i.e. inhomoge- neity problems often linked to historical time-series）; （2） the studied records agreed to show lower spring temperatures and later river ice breakups during the 19th century, in comparison to the 20th century conditions, evidencing the prevalence of cooler spring temperatures in the study region, in agreement with the concept of the Little Ice Age （1570-1900） climate in North-West Europe; （3） the most recent sub-period demonstrate the highest spring tem- peratures with concomitantly earliest river ice breakups, showing the relative warmth of the current springtime climate in the study region in the context of the past two centuries; （4） the effects of anthropogenic changes in the river environment （e.g. construction and demolition of dams） during the 20th century should be considered for non-climatic variations in the breakup records; （5） this study emphasizes the importance of multi-centurial （i.e. historical） cryo- phenological information for highly interesting viewpoints of climate and environmental his- tory.     

Response of small mid-mountain rivers to human impact with particular reference to the last 200 years; Eastern Sudetes, Central Europe

In the mid-mountains of Central Europe relict forms of periglacial morphogenesis occur, including debris slope covers. However, the Holocene forest succession limited sediment transfer towards valley systems.The eastern, mid-mountain part of the Sudetes, characterised by a dense stream network and by the local occurrence of metallic and gold ores, was already settled by humans in early medieval times. Timber from the forested slopes was used to produce charcoal and streams acted as energy sources for smelting plants and smithies. Agriculture developed on less inclined slopes. Temporal clearances on steep slopes and replacement of primeval beech forest by spruce trees, influenced water circulation on slopes. The exposed slope covers were transferred to valley floors during high precipitation events. Consequently, they were selectively redeposited within the floodplain, changing the former channel pattern, especially at confluences. The introduction of cultivation on slopes triggered intense soil erosion so that agricultural terraces were built in order to prevent surface wash. The terraces are often strengthened with stone walls up to 4.5 m high. Terraces acted as ‘sediment traps’, storing the washed material within the slope. The layers of fine-grained colluvial sediments, which can be linked with agriculture, cover the older, debris slope covers. The colluvium is especially thick at the terrace edges. Despite the protective role of terracing, part of the washed material was transferred to valleys, often becoming overbank deposits, covering older gravel and boulder alluvium. The decline of iron ore exploitation and processing, at the beginning of the 19th century, together with agricultural withdrawal, which was especially radical after the 2nd World War, resulted in successive renaturalisation of the environment being followed by slope stabilisation and deepening of bigger river channels.The results led to the conclusion that a strong human impact on the slope–valley system in the mid-mountain part of the Eastern Sudetes influenced changes in the dynamics and morphology of small rivers to a much higher extent than the climate variations, especially during the Little Ice Age.     

古丝绸之路沿线地区千年冷暖变化的若干特征

依据近期发表的古丝绸之路沿线若干地区(点)的温度重建序列,结合干湿变化等代用记录,分析了过去千年古丝绸之路沿线温度变化的基本特征,以及这些地区(点)在“中世纪气候异常期”(MCA,约950-1250年)和“小冰期”(LIA,约1450-1850年)的干湿特征异同。主要结论为：①过去2000年古丝绸之路的温度变化经历了1-3世纪温暖、4-7世纪前期寒冷、7世纪后期-11世纪初温暖、11世纪中期-12世纪初偏冷、12世纪中期-13世纪中期温暖、13世纪末-19世纪中期寒冷和20世纪快速增暖的百年际波动过程;但不同区域间的年代至百年尺度变化位相不完全同步,波动幅度也存在差异。②各地干湿特征在MCA和LIA也存在一定差异：中国的关中平原及河西走廊在MCA间的干湿变率较LIA大;中亚干旱区MCA期间气候偏干,LIA期间偏湿;欧洲中北部以及斯堪的纳维亚半岛南部等地在MCA间气候较LIA偏干,且中部地区LIA间的干湿变率较MCA大;芬兰和斯堪的纳维亚半岛北部以及俄罗斯等地MCA间的气候较LIA更湿润。     

Leaf wax δ2H and varve-thickness climate proxies from proglacial lake sediments, Baffin Island, Arctic Canada

We present a multiproxy paleoclimate record using leaf wax hydrogen isotopes (??²H_wax) and varve thickness from Arctic proglacial lake sediments. We also provide one of the first evaluations of the utility of ??²H_wax as a paleoclimate proxy in Arctic proglacial lakes. We compare varve thickness and ??²H_wax at sub-decadal resolution from 1948 to 2004 AD, and at sub-centennial resolution from 1450 to 2004 AD. Varve thickness and ??²H_wax both contain large interannual variability and are anti-correlated during the late twentieth century, suggesting that both proxies respond rapidly, but by different mechanisms, to catchment-scale forcings. At longer time scales, varve thickness exhibits a strong response to Little Ice Age cooling (1661?C1827 AD in this record) but does not show evidence for twentieth century warming recorded throughout the Arctic. ??²H_wax does record regional-scale temperature changes, with more ²H-depleted values during the Little Ice Age and an abrupt change to more ²H-enriched values in the twentieth century. This corresponds well with a recent Arctic-wide temperature reconstruction in which the seventeenth century is the coldest interval, and the twentieth century is the warmest interval. Our results suggest that ??²H_wax is a promising proxy that can be applied at high resolution in proglacial Arctic lakes.     

Accumulation and geochemical evidence for the Little Ice Age episode in eastern Antarctica

Data on accumulation and concentration of chemical compounds recorded in an essentially unexplored area(Dome Argus)of the Indian Ocean sector of eastern Antarctica during the past 2,680 years(680 B.C. to 1999 A.D.) are presented. During the first 1, 700 years(680 B. C. to 1000 A. D.), the accumulation data shows a slightly decreasing trend, while chemical ions appear to be stable, representing a stable climatic condition. An intensive increasing trend of the accumulation occurred during the 12^th to 14^th century. The period from 15^th to 19^th century was characterized by a rapid reducing accumulation and concentrations of volatile compounds suffering post-depositional loss linked to sparse precipitation amount,which was temporally consistent with the Little Ice Age(LIA) episode. Comparison between observed accumulation rates with other eastern Antarctic ice cores show a consistent decreasing trend during LIA, while sea salt and dust-originated ions increased due to sea ice extent and intensified atmospheric transportation. Distribution of volcanic originated sulfate over the Antarctic continent show a significant change during the 15^th century, coincident with the onset of the LIA. These results are important for the assessment of Antarctic continent mass balance and associated interpretation of the Dome A deep ice core records.     

THE 'LITTLE ICE AGE': RE-EVALUATION OF AN EVOLVING CONCEPT

ABSTRACT. This review focuses on the development of the ‘Little Ice Age’ as a glaciological and climatic concept, and evaluates its current usefulness in the light of new data on the glacier and climatic variations of the last millennium and of the Holocene. ‘Little Ice Age’ glacierization occurred over about 650 years and can be defined most precisely in the European Alps (c. AD 1300–1950) when extended glaciers were larger than before or since. ‘Little Ice Age’ climate is defined as a shorter time interval of about 330 years (c. AD 1570–1900) when Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures (land areas north of 20°N) fell significantly below the AD 1961–1990 mean. This climatic definition overlaps the times when the Alpine glaciers attained their latest two highstands (AD 1650 and 1850). It is emphasized, however, that ‘Little Ice Age’ glacierization was highly dependent on winter precipitation and that ‘Little Ice Age’ climate was not simply a matter of summer temperatures. Both the glacier‐centred and the climate‐centred concepts necessarily encompass considerable spatial and temporal variability, which are investigated using maps of mean summer temperature variations over the Northern Hemisphere at 30‐year intervals from AD 1571 to 1900. ‘Little Ice Age’‐type events occurred earlier in the Holocene as exemplified by at least seven glacier expansion episodes that have been identified in southern Norway. Such events provide a broader context and renewed relevance for the ‘Little Ice Age’, which may be viewed as a ‘modern analogue’ for the earlier events; and the likelihood that similar events will occur in the future has implications for climatic change in the twenty‐first century. It is concluded that the concept of a ‘Little Ice Age’ will remain useful only by (1) continuing to incorporate the temporal and spatial complexities of glacier and climatic variations as they become better known, and (2) by reflecting improved understanding of the Earth‐atmosphere‐ocean system and its forcing factors through the interaction of palaeoclimatic reconstruction with climate modelling.