重庆山地区域气象要素空间插值方法对比

利用重庆地区1999年和2018年气象数据,分别采用薄盘光滑样条、协同克里金、普通克里金、反距离加权4种方法,从年和月两种尺度对气温、降水、太阳总辐射三个要素进行空间插值;采取交叉验证方法,用MAE、MRE、RMSE评估插值精度,确定各要素最优插值方法。结果表明：气温和太阳总辐射最优插值方法为薄盘光滑样条,降水为反距离加权;插值精度上气温、太阳总辐射高值月份优于低值月份,降水则相反,但三个要素均表现出年尺度优于月尺度。MRE检验表明,插值精度为气温>太阳总辐射>降水,1999年年尺度插值精度分别为1.86%、4.60%、6.87%,月尺度插值精度分别为2.79%、5.82%、17.42%;2018年太阳总辐射年、月尺度插值精度分别为3.03%、4.88%,区域站加密后气温、降水年尺度插值精度分别为2.03%、11.20%,月尺度对应插值精度分别为3.20%、23.14%。     

PRELIMINARY NUMERICAL STUDY OF TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS OF THE TIBETAN PLATEAU ON SURFACE DIRECT RADIATION*

To improve the simulating ability of a model,this paper presents a scheme of calculating direct radiation at land surface with topography in the model.A numerical study is conducted for the topographic effects of the Tibetan Plateau on the direct radiation using NCEP terrain data.Results show that,after taking account into the topographic radiation effect,the regional average of the radiation over the Plateau obviously increases in the local early morning and late afternoon,but changes less around noon.The effect is stronger in winter than that in summer.And heterogeneous topography has also affected the distribution of the radiation in this area.A simple numerical experiment shows that considering the effect will lead ground temperature to increase on the slope having more sunshine,and vice versa.     

PRELIMINARY NUMERICAL STUDY OF TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS OF THE TIBETAN PLATEAU ON SURFACE DIRECT RADIATION

To improve the simulating ability of a model,this paper presents a scheme of calculatingdirect radiation at land surface with topography in the model.A numerical study is conducted forthe topographic effects of the Tibetan Plateau on the direct radiation using NCEP terrain data.Results show that,after taking account into the topographic radiation effect,the regional averageof the radiation over the Plateau obviously increases in the local early morning and late afternoon,but changes less around noon.The effect is stronger in winter than that in summer.Andheterogeneous topography has also affected the distribution of the radiation in this area.A simplenumerical experiment shows that considering the effect will lead ground temperature to increase onthe slope having more sunshine,and vice versa.     

Effects of complex terrain on net surface longwave radiation in China

Net surface longwave radiation (NSLR) is one of key meteorological factors and is strongly influenced by cloud cover, surface temperature, humidity, and local micrometeorological conditions as well as terrain conditions. Realistically estimating NSLR is vitally important for understanding surface radiation balance and investigating micrometeorological factors of air pollution dispersion, especially in regions with complicated terrain. In this study, we proposed a distributed model for estimating NSLR by considering effects of complex local terrain conditions in China. Meteorological data (including mean temperature, relative humidity, and sunshine percentage) and observed NSLR data from 1993 to 2001 together with the digital elevation model data were used to parametrize the model and account for the effects of atmospheric factors and surface terrain factors according to the isotropic principle. The monthly NSLR during 1961–2000 was estimated at a spatial resolution of 1 km. Topographic analysis suggests that the distribution characteristics of NSLR with elevation or slope are consistent with those of field observations. In particular, the estimated NSLR is favorably comparable with site-level observations on the Tibetan Plateau (average relative error < 11%). Our results indicate that this model can describe microscale distribution features in mountainous areas in detail and that this improved approach can be used for NSLR spatial estimation in other regions with complicated terrain.     

VALIDATION OF NEAR-SURFACE WINDS OBTAINED BY A HYBRID WRF/CALMET MODELING SYSTEM OVER A COASTAL ISLAND WITH COMPLEX TERRAIN

The results from a hybrid approach that combines a mesoscale meteorological model with a diagnostic model to produce high-resolution wind fields in complex coastal topography are evaluated.The diagnostic wind model(California Meteorological Model,CALMET) with 100-m horizontal spacing was driven with outputs from the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model to obtain near-surface winds for the 1-year period from 12 September 2003 to 11 September 2004.Results were compared with wind observations at four sites.Traditional statistical scores,including correlation coefficients,standard deviations(SDs) and mean absolute errors(MAEs),indicate that the wind estimates from the WRF/CALMET modeling system are produced reasonably well.The correlation coefficients are relatively large,ranging from 0.5 to 0.7 for the zonal wind component and from 0.75 to 0.85 for the meridional wind component.MAEs for wind speed range from 1.5 to 2.0 m s-1 at 10 meters above ground level(AGL) and from 2.0 to 2.5 m s-1 at 60 m AGL.MAEs for wind direction range from 30 to 40 degrees at both levels.A spectral decomposition of the time series of wind speed shows positive impacts of CALMET in improving the mesoscale winds.Moreover,combining the CALMET model with WRF significantly improves the spatial variability of the simulated wind fields.It can be concluded that the WRF/CALMET modeling system is capable of providing a detailed near-surface wind field,but the physics in the diagnostic CALMET model needs to be further improved.     

复杂地形下黑河流域的太阳辐射计算

基于数字高程模型(DEM)数据,在充分考虑了地形因子对太阳直接辐射和散射辐射的影响后,实际计算了起伏地形下黑河流域的太阳辐射。在忽略地表和大气之间的多次反射后,地表太阳总辐射计为三项:按起伏坡面上实际入射角考虑的太阳直接辐射、经过下垫面天空视角因子订正的坡面天空散射辐射和考虑周围地形反射效应的附加辐射。计算结果表明:局地地形起伏对太阳直接辐射、总辐射空间分布的影响非常强烈,使得复杂地形下不同坡向间总辐射和直接辐射平均计算差额十分显著,且太阳天顶角从较小增大至中等大小时,这两种平均计算差额均加大一倍多;在较小和中等大小太阳天顶角下,不同坡向间总辐射平均计算差额,均较相同条件下直接辐射平均计算差额为小,这是因为总辐射还包括了天空漫射和邻近地形反射辐射因子,这两个因子和坡面上太阳入射方位的变化共同影响地表入射太阳辐射;起伏地形主要使得太阳辐射在局地区域内背阴、向阳坡向间发生显著的重新分配。因此,在复杂地形地区进行太阳辐射计算时必须考虑地形的影响。     

Parameterization of the thermal impacts of sub-grid orography on numerical modeling of the surface energy budget over East Asia

Summary A parameterization scheme for the thermal effects of subgrid scale orography is incorporated into a regional climate model (developed at Nanjing University) and its impact on modeling of the surface energy budget over East Asia is evaluated. This scheme includes the effect of terrain slope and orientation on the computation of solar and infrared radiation fluxes at the surface, as well as the surface sensible and latent heat fluxes. Calculations show that subgrid terrain parameters alter the diurnal cycle and horizontal distributions of surface energy budget components. This effect becomes more significant with increased terrain slope, especially in winter. Due to the inclusion of the subgrid topography, the surface area of a model grid box changes over complex terrain areas. Numerical experiments, with and without the subgrid scale topography scheme, show that the parameterization scheme of subgrid scale topography modifies the distribution of the surface energy budget and surface temperature around the Tibetan Plateau. Comparisons with observations indicate that the subgrid topography scheme, implemented in the climate model, reproduces the observed detailed spatial temperature structures at the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau and reduces the tendency to overestimate precipitation along the southern coastal areas of China in summer.     

起伏地形下浙江省散射辐射时空分异规律模拟

结合影响起伏地形下太阳散射辐射的天空因素与地面因素,通过基于数字高程模型（DEM）数据的起伏地形下天文辐射模型和地形开阔度模型,综合考虑地面因素对散射辐射的影响;基于常规地面气象站观测资料建立的水平面散射辐射模型,考虑天空因素对散射辐射的影响;建立了起伏地形下浙江省散射辐射分布式估算模型;逐月计算了浙江省散射辐射（100m×100m）的空间分布。结果表明：散射分量分布与地理地形因子、季风影响、大气透明程度有关,由高纬向低纬逐渐增加;季节分布特点为,夏季〉春季〉秋季〉冬季;坡度、坡向对散射辐射的分布影响小,但辐射值与开阔度呈正相关,各季辐射最大值分布在开阔度大处,最小值在开阔度最小处,不同季节有所伸缩。计算结果可以为气候变化和环境资源研究提供基础数据。     

An approach to the estimation of surface net radiation in mountain areas using remote sensing and digital terrain data

Summary An approach is proposed to estimate the net radiation load at the surface in mountain areas. The components of the radiation balance are derived using a radiative transfer model combined with remotely sensed and digital terrain data. Integrated shortwave (0.28–6.00 µm) and longwave irradiances (3.00–100.00 µm) are computed using a modified version of the Practical Improved Flux Method (PIFM) of Zdunkowski et al. (1982) which makes use of digital topographic data in order to account for slope, aspect, and shading effects. Surface albedo and thermal exitance estimates are obtained using Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and digital terrain data combined with the LOWTRAN 7 atmospheric model (Kneizys et al., 1988). LOWTRAN 7 is utilized together with a set of terrain modeling programs to compute direct and diffuse sky irradiance for selected TM bands, and to remove atmospheric effects within the visible, near-infrared, mid-infrared, and thermal infrared bands of Landsat TM. Model testing in the Colorado alpine show a generally good correspondence between estimated values and field measurements obtained over comparable tundra surfaces during several field campaigns. The method is finally used to produce 1) maps of the components of the radiation balance at the time of Landsat TM overflight and 2) maps of daily totals of shortwave irradiance and net shortwave radiation on a typical summer day in the Colorado Rocky Mountains (i.e. including cloud cover effects). The results indicate that the proposed approach is particularly suitable for obtaining estimates of net radiation at the surface from the toposcale to the regional scale.With 6 Figures     

基于DEM修订的新疆区域气温空间插值精度优化研究

为研究新疆地区气温的空间变异性,以新疆66个国家气象台站1981—2010年月平均气温和30 m空间分辨率DEM数据为基础,采用传统插值法、基于DEM多元线性回归插值和基于DEM修正的空间插值方法对新疆区域气温数据进行栅格化,并分析年平均气温与海拔的相关关系。通过采用反距离权重法(IDW),普通克里格法(Kriging),样条函数法(Spline)和趋势面分析法(Trend)4种空间插值方法对气象要素进行直接插值、气温多元回归模型残差结果插值、基于DEM修正插值对比分析。通过针对插值方法进行基于MAE和RMSIE的交叉验证,结果表明传统插值方法、基于多元线性回归和基于DEM修正4种空间插值精度均为IDWKrigingSplineTrend。反距离权重(IDW)空间插值方法最优,基于DEM修正IDW插值、基于多元线性回归IDW插值与传统IDW插值精度分别是0.039、0.477、1.038,插值结果客观的表达了新疆区域气温随空间梯度的变化趋势。     

GRAPES模式中的坡地辐射方案及其对短期天气过程模拟的影响

为了改进太阳短波辐射参数化, 在非静力中尺度模式GRAPES (全球/区域同化和预报系统) 中考虑了坡地辐射 (SLOPE), 并着重讨论其在不同分辨率情况下对我国短期天气过程的影响.数值试验结果表明: 地形坡度和坡向对地表短波辐射 (GSW) 计算有较大的影响, 与没有考虑坡地作用的参考运行 (FLAT) 相比, 早晨和傍晚的GSW最小可减小60%以下, 最大也可增加60%以上, 比一天中其他时间和平均值大得多.在江淮流域一次梅雨锋降水过程中, 坡地辐射参数化方案的引入对降水模拟有较明显的影响, 特别在高分辨率 (6 km) 情况下, 降水的增加和减小不仅发生在GSW改变比较大的地区, 且与复杂地形有较好的相关性.另外, 由于地形坡度和坡向引起地表温度的改变与地表热通量的变化一致, 且也发生在地形起伏的多山地区.因此, 当水平分辨率较高且地形陡峭起伏时, 应当包含坡地辐射.     

Analysis of mesometeorological temperature fields

Summary An objective procedure of a three-dimensional temperature analysis in a topography following (zeta) coordinate system is presented. Temperature data from various conventional sources (ground stations, RAWIN, synoptic analysis) are interpolated into the grid points of the zeta system (the horizontal grid distance is 1 km, vertical resolution is 11 levels up to 2500 m) by a topography variability considering horizontal interpolation. As the correlations between the synop and also the upper air data from pairs of stations on different sides of a mountain barrier show a rapid decrease (Lanzinger and Steinacker, 1989), the Euclidic distances between the points with measurements and the grid points are corrected according to the variability of the gird points are corrected according to the variability of the topography between the two points. If the topography between the two points is flat, or if there is only a valley, the Euclidean distance is used as an interpolation distance. In case of a ridge between the two poinst the interpolation distance is increased according to the topography height variation and the stability of the air mass. In the vertical interpolations a synthetic temperature profile is used made of the data from Rawin, the measurements from meteorological tower and the measurements from some meteorological stations located at high altitude.The grid point temperature values are adjusted to satisfy quasi-stationarity condition, considering advective and diabatic changes of the temperature. A variational formalism in a weighted least square sense in the zeta coordinate system is developed and the boundary conditions are specified. The results (3-D temperature fields and the fields of local derivative of temperature) for a large pre-alpine basin (the Ljubljana basin in the central part of Slovenia, Yugoslavia, 50×50 km) are presented and the usefullness of the adjustement procedure is discussed.With 5 Figures     

晕渲图技术在气象模式数据可视化上的应用

晕渲法根据山体阴影值的原理,利用光照角度和方向、坡度和坡向的关系来计算光通量的明暗值,利用色调的明暗来展现气象模式数据的立体感。晕渲图的着色方法是将每个格点上的明暗值作为HSV色彩模式中的明度,结合饱和度和色度获得HSV色彩值,再通过HSV色彩模式和RGB色彩模型之间的转换,使用RGB色彩模型进行着色,实现气象模式数据彩色晕渲图的绘制。本文在气象模式数据的可视化工作中,利用晕渲图技术,实现对物理概念上与地形类似的气压、位势高度等数据的三维绘制。相比于传统的等值线填色方法,晕渲图技术能够直观表现大气形势场的立体分布,以凹凸效果表现高低值天气系统,通过坡面的陡度体现天气系统的梯度变化;能够展现数据的像素级细节,识别梯度较小的涡流扰动,显示等效地形影响,帮助气象工作者更好地解释数据,为气象模式中数据处理的改进提供参考。     

河北省月平均气温分布式模型应用研究

利用1971-2000年河北省及周边126个气象台站的常规观测资料,应用月平均气温分布式模型,实现了起伏地形下河北省月平均气温的分布式模拟,制作出100 m×100 m分辨率的气温空间制图。结果表明：坝上高原和河北省平原地区地势平坦,气温分布比较均匀;燕山山脉和太行山山脉地形复杂,气温受局地地形影响显著。在角度相同的坡地上,偏南坡与偏北坡的气温差异1月>10月>4月>7月。在同一时段,偏南坡与偏北坡的气温差异随坡度的增加而增加;张家口地区多盆地河谷,气温分布均匀且较周围地区高;月平均气温分布式模型在河北省具有良好的模拟精度、时间维和空间维模拟性能及山地扩展性能。     

基于DEM的四川省地面气象台站地形特征分析

利用DEM资料,获取四川省地面气象台站的海拔高度并进行精度验证,在此基础上,进一步提取台站所处的坡度、坡向、地形粗糙度特征进行分析。结果表明：DEM数据能较为精确地反映四川气象台站的地形高度,具有较高的适用性。通过分析国家站、区域考核站和非考核站的台站地形特征发现,3种站网类型均主要分布在低海拔地区,且在500 m左右地区最密集,国家站分布相对均匀。3种站网类型台站所处坡度主要分布在0°~15°,且在缓斜坡地形最为集中,国家站较区域站分布均匀。3种台站类型在阳坡、阴坡、东坡和西坡各坡向站点分布比较一致,超过81%的台站地形粗糙度在1.05°之内,国家站地势相对平缓。总之,国家站较区域考核和非考核站更具有区域代表性。     

基于DEM的复杂地形下太阳散射辐射分布式模拟——以贵州高原为例

由于坡度、坡向和地形之间相互遮蔽等局地地形因子的影响,确定实际复杂地形下太阳散射辐射是比较困难的.本文在前人研究的基础上,对以前的模型进行了一些改进,考虑了坡度、坡向和地形相互遮蔽作用对复杂地形下天文辐射的影响,基于数字高程模型(DEM)数据,研制了以复杂地形下天文辐射为起始数据的复杂地形下太阳散射辐射的分布式模型,在模型中还考虑了散射辐射的各向异性.以地形复杂的贵州高原为例,应用100 m×100 m分辨率的DEM数据及气象站常规观测气象资料,计算了贵州高原复杂地形下各月及年的太阳散射辐射精细空间分布.结果表明:(1)局地地形因子(如坡度、坡向和地形遮蔽)对贵州高原复杂地形下太阳散射辐射的空间分布影响较大,随着地形的起伏变化,太阳散射辐射的空间分布明显不同,纬向分布特征不明显.(2)对于太阳散射辐射而言,地形对其的影响仍然很大,在太阳散射辐射计算时也是不容忽视的.     

重庆风暴尺度集合预报系统降水预报性能分析

基于在重庆市气象局业务运行的对流可分辨尺度（3 km）集合预报系统,在已有初值扰动、模式物理过程扰动和侧边界扰动的基础上,对不同集合成员采用不同地形插值方案和地形平滑方案实现对模式静态地形高度的扰动,体现数值模式中地形转换过程的不确定性,开展集合预报批量平行试验。结果表明：（1）实现对模式静态地形高度的扰动后,各集合成员地形高度的离散度与实际地形的起伏程度对应关系较好,两者空间分布特征非常相似,地形较平坦的平原地区离散度较小,而地形较复杂的高原地区或山区离散度较大;（2）加入模式地形扰动方案后,集合扰动能量总体上有所增大,且低层比中、高层更明显,能量增幅在较短预报时效（12 h）内最显著,随着预报时效延长呈逐渐减小趋势,且能量增幅大值中心主要出现在地形较复杂、集合成员地形高度离散度较大地区;（3）模式地形扰动方案一定程度上能提高降水概率预报技巧及改进集合平均降水预报,在对高空要素和2 m温度、10 m风场等近地面要素的集合平均均方根误差和集合离散度无负面影响的前提下,能一定程度上优化集合分布。

     

CALMET模式不同参数化方案对江西省山地风场模拟的对比分析

通过降尺度模式CALMET不同参数化方案对江西山地风场测风塔风速风向模拟结果的对比分析,选取出适合山地风场模拟的最优参数化方案,并进行连续一年的模拟效果检验。结果表明:CALMET模式以不采用地形动力效应参数调整和Froude数调整,采用下坡气流效应调整和O’Brien垂直风速调整时,对江西省境内山地风场50 m以上高度层风场模拟效果最佳。最优参数化方案不仅能较好地模拟出山地风场测风塔逐时风速,并且对全年风速段分布模拟有较好的结果。CALMET模式能模拟出实际测风塔全年主导风向,但模拟与实测结果主导风向分布约有一个方位的偏差,主导风向频率有7%~8%的偏差。     

A Model to Estimate Global Radiation in Complex Terrain

Global radiation is an important parameter necessary for most ecological models. However, in situ data barely meets the needs of modelling mountainous ecosystems since most field stations are located in flat areas. Consequently, it is usually necessary to extrapolate radiation measurements obtained from an adjacent flat area to the complex terrain of concern. The distribution of radiation in complex terrain depends upon two factors: the local atmospheric conditions, which determine the radiation potentially available to a supposed flat surface in a given location, and the topographic effects on this possible radiation. The latter have been included in detail in most radiation models for complex terrain, but the former are often only simply treated as constant or estimated by over-simplified empirical algorithms. In this paper we propose a novel model that uses a parametric atmospheric model to calculate the potential radiation for a supposed flat surface in a given location, and then account for topographic effects. Direct radiation, diffuse radiation and reflected radiation are calculated separately in the model due to the distinctive characteristics of and the effects by topography. Based on the parametric model, this paper has investigated the relationship between radiation transmittance, clearness indices and altitude under a series of water vapour content and turbidity conditions. This combines three ratios, R _b, R _d, and R _r, defined as the direct radiation, diffuse radiation and reflected radiation received by the arbitrary surface, respectively, to their counterparts in the horizontal surface, to estimate the global radiation for any given location. The model has been validated with data from measurements in National Park Berchtesgaden, Germany, where six measurement sites with various altitudes and topographic characteristics have been deployed. The r ² of modelled and measured hourly global radiation are greater than 0.90 in all six sites, with RMSE varies from 16 to 100 W m⁻². Sensitivity analysis revealed that the model was not sensitive to change in water vapour content, which suggests the possibility to use an exponential algorithm of water vapour content when there is no in situ water vapour content information in complex terrains. The NRMSE was only reduced by 0.04, on average, in five of the six sites when water vapour content information was calculated from the in situ air temperature and relative humidity measurements.     

Energy Balance Of A Sparse Coniferous High-Latitude Forest Under Winter Conditions

Measurements carried out in Northern Finland on radiation and turbulent fluxes over a sparse, sub-arctic boreal forest with snow covered ground were analysed. The measurements represent late winter conditions characterised by low solar elevation angles. During the experiment (12–24 March 1997) day and night were about equally long. At low solar elevation angles the forest shades most of the snow surface. Therefore an important part of the radiation never reaches the snow surface but is absorbed by the forest. The sensible heat flux above the forest was fairly large, reaching more than 100 W m^-2. The measurements of sensible heat flux within and above the forest revealed that the sensible heat flux from the snow surface is negligible and the sensible heat flux above the forest stems from warming of the trees. A simple model for the surface energy balance of a sparse forest is presented. The model treats the diffuse and direct shortwave (solar) radiation separately. It introduces a factor that accounts for the shading of the ground at low solar elevation angles, and a parameter that deals with the partial transparency of the forest.Input to the model are the direct and diffuse incoming shortwave radiation.Measurements of the global radiation (direct plus diffuse incoming shortwaveradiation) above the forest revealed a considerable attenuation of the globalradiation at low solar elevation. A relation for the atmospheric turbidity asfunction of the solar elevation angle is suggested. The global radiation wassimulated for a three month period. For conditions with a cloud cover of lessthan 7 oktas good agreement between model predictions and measurementswere found. For cloud cover 7 and 8 oktas a considerable spread can beobserved. To apply the proposed energy balance model, the global radiationmust be separated into its diffuse and direct components. We propose a simpleempirical relationship between diffuse shortwave and global radiation asfunction of cloud cover.