Wave ensemble forecast system for tropical cyclones in the Australian region

Forecasting of waves under extreme conditions such as tropical cyclones is vitally important for many offshore industries, but there remain many challenges. For Northwest Western Australia (NW WA), wave forecasts issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology have previously been limited to products from deterministic operational wave models forced by deterministic atmospheric models. The wave models are run over global (resolution 1/4^°) and regional (resolution 1/10^°) domains with forecast ranges of +?7 and +?3 day respectively. Because of this relatively coarse resolution (both in the wave models and in the forcing fields), the accuracy of these products is limited under tropical cyclone conditions. Given this limited accuracy, a new ensemble-based wave forecasting system for the NW WA region has been developed. To achieve this, a new dedicated 8-km resolution grid was nested in the global wave model. Over this grid, the wave model is forced with winds from a bias-corrected European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast atmospheric ensemble that comprises 51 ensemble members to take into account the uncertainties in location, intensity and structure of a tropical cyclone system. A unique technique is used to select restart files for each wave ensemble member. The system is designed to operate in real time during the cyclone season providing +?10-day forecasts. This paper will describe the wave forecast components of this system and present the verification metrics and skill for specific events.     

Developing configuration of WRF model for long-term high-resolution wind wave hindcast over the North Atlantic with WAVEWATCH III

The spatial resolution of wind forcing fields is critical for modeling ocean surface waves. We analyze here the performance of the non-hydrostatic numerical weather prediction system WRF-ARW (Weather Research and Forecasting) run with a 14-km resolution for hindcasting wind waves in the North Atlantic. The regional atmospheric model was run in the domain from 20° N to 70° N in the North Atlantic and was forced with ERA-Interim reanalysis as initial and boundary conditions in a spectral nudging mode. Here, we present the analysis of the impact of spectral nudging formulation (cutoff wavelengths and depth through which full weighting from reanalysis data is applied) onto the performance of the modeled 10-m wind speed and wind wave fields for 1 year (2010). For modeling waves, we use the third-generation spectral wave model WAVEWATCH III. The sensitivity of the atmospheric and wave models to the spectral nudging formulation is investigated via the comparison with reanalysis and observational data. The results reveal strong and persistent agreement with reanalysis data during all seasons within the year with well-simulated annual cycle and regional patterns independently of the nudging parameters that were tested. Thus, the proposed formulation of the nudging provides a reliable framework for future long-term experiments aiming at hindcasting climate variability in the North Atlantic wave field. At the same time, dynamical downscaling allows for simulation of higher waves in coastal regions, specifically near the Greenland east coast likely due to a better representation of the mesoscale atmospheric dynamics in this area.     

Using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) to improve the ocean circulation from a GCM 20<Superscript>th</Superscript> century simulation

Global coupled climate models are generally capable of reproducing the observed trends in the globally averaged atmospheric temperature. However, the global models do not perform as well on regional scales. Here, we present results from a 20-year, high-resolution ocean model experiment for the Atlantic and Arctic Oceans. The atmospheric forcing is taken from the final 20 years of a twentieth-century control run with a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model. The ocean model results from the regional ocean model are validated using observations of hydrography from repeat cruises in the Barents Sea. Validation is performed for average quantities and for probability distributions in space and time. The validation results reveal that, though the regional model is forced by a coupled global model that has a noticeable sea ice bias in the Barents Sea, the hydrography and its variability are reproduced with an encouraging quality. We attribute this improvement to the realistic transport of warm, salty waters into the Barents Sea in the regional model. These lateral fluxes in the ocean are severely underestimated by the global model. The added value with the regional model that we have documented here lends hope to advance the quality of oceanic climate change impact studies.     

A three-dimensional surface wave–ocean circulation coupled model and its initial testing

A theoretical framework to include the influences of nonbreaking surface waves in ocean general circulation models is established based on Reynolds stresses and fluxes terms derived from surface wave-induced fluctuation. An expression for the wave-induced viscosity and diffusivity as a function of the wave number spectrum is derived for infinite and finite water depths; this derivation allows the coupling of ocean circulation models with a wave number spectrum numerical model. In the case of monochromatic surface wave, the wave-induced viscosity and diffusivity are functions of the Stokes drift. The influence of the wave-induced mixing scheme on global ocean circulation models was tested with the Princeton Ocean Model, indicating significant improvement in upper ocean thermal structure and mixed layer depth compared with mixing obtained by the Mellor–Yamada scheme without the wave influence. For example, the model–observation correlation coefficient of the upper 100-m temperature along 35° N increases from 0.68 without wave influence to 0.93 with wave influence. The wave-induced Reynolds stress can reach up to about 5% of the wind stress in high latitudes, and drive 2–3 Sv transport in the global ocean in the form of mesoscale eddies with diameter of 500–1,000 km. The surface wave-induced mixing is more pronounced in middle and high latitudes during the summer in the Northern Hemisphere and in middle latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere.     

The predictability of near-coastal currents using a baroclinic unstructured grid model

A limited domain, coastal ocean forecast system consisting of an unstructured grid model, a meteorological model, a regional ocean model, and a global tidal database is designed to be globally relocatable. For such a system to be viable, the predictability of coastal currents must be well understood with error sources clearly identified. To this end, the coastal forecast system is applied at the mouth of Chesapeake Bay in response to a Navy exercise. Two-day forecasts are produced for a 10-day period from 4 to 14 June 2010 and compared to real-time observations. Interplay between the temporal frequency of the regional model boundary forcing and the application of external tides to the coastal model impacts the tidal characteristics of the coastal current, even contributing a small phase error. Frequencies of at least 3 h are needed to resolve the tidal signal within the regional model; otherwise, externally applied tides from a database are needed to capture the tidal variability. Spatial resolution of the regional model (3 vs 1 km) does not impact skill of the current prediction. Tidal response of the system indicates excellent representation of the dominant M ₂ tide for water level and currents. Diurnal tides, especially K ₁, are amplified unrealistically with the application of coarse 27-km winds. Higher-resolution winds reduce current forecast error with the exception of wind originating from the SSW, SSE, and E. These winds run shore parallel and are subject to strong interaction with the shoreline that is poorly represented even by the 3-km wind fields. The vertical distribution of currents is also well predicted by the coastal model. Spatial and temporal resolution of the wind forcing including areas close to the shoreline is the most critical component for accurate current forecasts. Additionally, it is demonstrated that wind resolution plays a large role in establishing realistic thermal and density structures in upwelling prone regions.     

The future of the western Baltic Sea: two possible scenarios

Globally coupled climate models are generally capable of reproducing the observed trends in the globally averaged atmospheric temperature. However, the global models do not perform as well on regional scales. Here, we present results from four 100-year, high-resolution ocean model experiments (resolution less than 1 km) for the western Baltic Sea. The forcing is taken from a regional atmospheric model and a regional ocean model, imbedded into two global greenhouse gas emission scenarios, A1B and B1, for the period of 2000 to 2100 with each two realisations. Two control runs from 1960 to 2000 are used for validation. For both scenarios, the results show a warming with an increase of 0.5–2.5 K at the sea surface and 0.7–2.8 K below 40 m. The simulations further indicate a decrease in salinity by 1.5–2 practical salinity units. The increase in water temperature leads to a prolongation of heat waves based on present-day thresholds. This amounts to a doubling or even tripling of the heat wave duration. The simulations show a decrease in inflow events (barotropic/baroclinic), which will affect the deepwater generation and ventilation of the central Baltic Sea. The high spatial resolution allows us to diagnose the inflow events and the mechanism that will cause future changes. The reduction in barotropic inflow events correlates well with the increase in westerly winds. The changes in the baroclinic inflows can be consistently explained by the reduction of calm wind periods and thus a weakening of the necessary stratification in the western Baltic Sea and the Danish Straits.     

Importance of Spatial Resolution in Global Groundwater Modeling

Global-scale gradient-based groundwater models are a new endeavor for hydrologists who wish to improve global hydrological models (GHMs). In particular, the integration of such groundwater models into GHMs improves the simulation of water flows between surface water and groundwater and of capillary rise and thus evapotranspiration. Currently, these models are not able to simulate water table depth adequately over the entire globe. Unsatisfactory model performance compared to well observations suggests that a higher spatial resolution is required to better represent the high spatial variability of land surface and groundwater elevations. In this study, we use New Zealand as a testbed and analyze the impacts of spatial resolution on the results of global groundwater models. Steady-state hydraulic heads simulated by two versions of the global groundwater model G³M, at spatial resolutions of 5 arc-minutes (9 km) and 30 arc-seconds (900 m), are compared with observations from the Canterbury region. The output of three other groundwater models with different spatial resolutions is analyzed as well. Considering the spatial distribution of residuals, general patterns of unsatisfactory model performance remain at the higher resolutions, suggesting that an increase in model resolution alone does not fix problems such as the systematic overestimation of hydraulic head. We conclude that (1) a new understanding of how low-resolution global groundwater models can be evaluated is required, and (2) merely increasing the spatial resolution of global-scale groundwater models will not improve the simulation of the global freshwater system.     

Inversion for tides in the Eastern North Pacific Ocean

A regional model of tides in the Eastern North Pacific Ocean is developed through the use of inversion with two-dimensional finite element codes. Since global tide models are least accurate in coastal environments, modeling tides on a regional scale allows tidal propagation and interaction along the coast to be more accurately represented. In this respect, a regional model can act as a liaison between open ocean dynamics and physical processes more pertinent to coastal systems. The region of interest in this study extends from the Aleutian Islands to Southern California and includes deep ocean, continental shelf, and shallow water features. Boundary conditions are determined from nonlinear inversion of harmonic data from both shallow water and deep ocean tide gauges. Spatial patterns of amplitudes and phases from the model are examined for major constituents. Results are also compared to global tide models at selected stations.     

Downscaling IPCC control run and future scenario with focus on the Barents Sea

Global atmosphere-ocean general circulation models are the tool by which projections for climate changes due to radiative forcing scenarios have been produced. Further, regional atmospheric downscaling of the global models may be applied in order to evaluate the details in, e.g., temperature and precipitation patterns. Similarly, detailed regional information is needed in order to assess the implications of future climate change for the marine ecosystems. However, regional results for climate change in the ocean are sparse. We present the results for the circulation and hydrography of the Barents Sea from the ocean component of two global models and from a corresponding pair of regional model configurations. The global models used are the GISS AOM and the NCAR CCSM3. The ROMS ocean model is used for the regional downscaling of these results (ROMS-G and ROMS-N configurations, respectively). This investigation was undertaken in order to shed light on two questions that are essential in the context of regional ocean projections: (1) How should a regional model be set up in order to take advantage of the results from global projections; (2) What limits to quality in the results of regional models are imposed by the quality of global models? We approached the first question by initializing the ocean model in the control simulation by a realistic ocean analysis and specifying air-sea fluxes according to the results from the global models. For the projection simulation, the global models’ oceanic anomalies from their control simulation results were added upon initialization. Regarding the second question, the present set of simulations includes regional downscalings of the present-day climate as well as projected climate change. Thus, we study separately how downscaling changes the results in the control climate case, and how scenario results are changed. For the present-day climate, we find that downscaling reduces the differences in the Barents Sea between the original global models. Furthermore, the downscaled results are closer to observations. On the other hand, the downscaled results from the scenario simulations are significantly different: while the heat transport into the Barents Sea and the salinity distribution change modestly from control to scenario with ROMS-G, in ROMS-N the heat transport is much larger in the scenario simulation, and the water masses become much less saline. The lack of robustness in the results from the scenario simulations leads us to conclude that the results for the regional oceanic response to changes in the radiative forcing depend on the choice of AOGCM and is not settled. Consequently, the effect of climate change on the marine ecosystem of the Barents Sea is anything but certain.     

Modelling ocean wave climate with a Bayesian hierarchical space–time model and a log-transform of the data

Long-term trends in the ocean wave climate because of global warming are of major concern to many stakeholders within the maritime industries, and there is a need to take severe sea state conditions into account in design of marine structures and in marine operations. Various stochastic models of significant wave height are reported in the literature, but most are based on point measurements without exploiting the flexible framework of Bayesian hierarchical space–time models. This framework allows modelling of complex dependence structures in space and time and incorporation of physical features and prior knowledge, yet remains intuitive and easily interpreted. This paper presents a Bayesian hierarchical space–time model with a log-transform for significant wave height data for an area in the North Atlantic ocean. The different components of the model will be outlined, and the results from applying the model to data of different temporal resolutions will be discussed. Different model alternatives have been tried and long-term trends in the data have been identified for all model alternatives. Overall, these trends are in reasonable agreement and also agree fairly well with previous studies. The log-transform was included in order to account for observed heteroscedasticity in the data, and results are compared to previous results where a similar model was employed without a log-transform. Furthermore, a discussion of possible extensions to the model, e.g. incorporating regression terms with relevant meteorological data, will be presented.     

Global SH-wave propagation in a 2D whole Moon model using the parallel hybrid PSM/FDM method

We present numerical modeling of SH-wave propagation for the recently proposed whole Moon model and try to improve our understanding of lunar seismic wave propagation. We use a hybrid PSM/FDM method on staggered grids to solve the wave equations and implement the calculation on a parallel PC cluster to improve the computing efficiency. Features of global SH-wave propagation are firstly discussed for a 100-km shallow and 900-km deep moonquakes, respectively. Effects of frequency range and lateral variation of crust thickness are then investigated with various models. Our synthetic waveforms are finally compared with observed Apollo data to show the features of wave propagation that were produced by our model and those not reproduced by our models. Our numerical modeling show that the low-velocity upper crust plays significant role in the development of reverberating wave trains. Increasing frequency enhances the strength and duration of the reverberations. Surface multiples dominate wavefields for shallow event. Core–mantle reflections can be clearly identified for deep event at low frequency. The layered whole Moon model and the low-velocity upper crust produce the reverberating wave trains following each phases consistent with observation. However, more realistic Moon model should be considered in order to explain the strong and slow decay scattering between various phases shown on observation data.     

An assessment of the impact of surface currents on wave modeling in the Southern Ocean

This paper presents an assessment of the impact of the ocean circulation on modeled wave fields in the Southern Ocean, where a systematic positive bias of the modeled wave height against altimetry data has been reported. The inclusion of ocean currents in the wave model considerably reduces the positive bias of the simulated wave height for high southern latitudes. The decrease of wave energy in the presence of currents is almost exclusively related to the reduction of the relative wind, caused by an overall co-flowing current field associated with the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Improvements of the model results are also found for the peak period and the mean period against a long-term moored buoy. At the mooring location, the effect of currents is greater for larger and longer waves, suggesting remotely generated swells are more influenced by the currents than local waves. However, an additional qualitative analysis using high-resolution currents in a finer grid nested to the global coarser grid shows that typical resolution of global hydrodynamic reanalysis is not sufficient to resolve mesoscale eddies, and as a consequence, the simulation of mesoscale wave patterns can be compromised. The results are also discussed in terms of the accuracy of forcing fields.     

Wave effects in global ocean modeling: parametrizations vs. forcing from a wave model

One of the main challenges of the Copernicus Marine Service is the implementation of coupled ocean/waves systems that accurately estimate the momentum and energy fluxes provided by the atmosphere to the ocean. This study aims to investigate the impact of forcing the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) ocean model with forecasts from the wave model of Météo-France (MFWAM) to improve classical air-sea flux parametrizations, these latter being mostly driven by the 10-m wind. Three wave-related processes, namely, wave-state-dependent stress, Stokes drift-related effects (Stokes-Coriolis force, Stokes drift advection on tracers and on mass), and wave-state-dependent surface turbulence, are examined at a global scale with a horizontal resolution of 0.25°. Three years of sensitivity simulations (2014–2016) show positive feedback on sea surface temperature (SST) and currents when the wave model is used. A significant reduction in SST bias is observed in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. This is mainly due to the more realistic momentum flux provided by the wave model. In mid-latitudes, the most interesting impact occurs during the summer stratification, when the wind is low and the wave model produces a reduction in the turbulence linked with wave breaking. Magnitudes of the large-scale currents in the equatorial region are also improved by 10% compared to observations. In general, it is shown that using the wave model reduces on average the momentum and energy fluxes to the ocean in tropical regions, but increases them in mid-latitudes. These differences are in the order of 10 to 20% compared with the classical parametrizations found in stand-alone ocean models.     

Detecting surface geostrophic currents using wavelet filter from satellite geodesy

According to the features of spatial spectrum of the dynamic ocean topography (DOT),wavelet filter is proposed to reduce short-wavelength and noise signals in DOT. The surface geostrophic currents calculated from the DOT models filtered by wavelet filter in global and Kuroshio regions show more detailed information than those from the DOT models filtered by Gaussian filter. Based on a satellite gravity field model (CG01C) and a gravity field model (EGM96),combining an altimetry-derived mean sea surface height model (KMSS04),two mean DOT models are estimated. The short-wavelength and noise signals of these two DOT models are removed by using wavelet filter,and the DOT models asso-ciated global mean surface geostrophic current fields are calculated separately. Comparison of the surface geostrophic currents from CG01C and EGM96 model in global,Kuroshio and equatorial Pacific regions with that from oceanography,and comparison of influences of the two gravity models errors on the precision of the surface geostrophic currents velocity show that the accuracy of CG01C model has been greatly improved over pre-existing models at long wavelengths. At large and middle scale,the surface geostrophic current from satellite gravity and satellite altimetry agrees well with that from oceanography,which indicates that ocean currents detected by satellite measurement have reached relatively high precision.     

Regional turbulence patterns driven by meso- and submesoscale processes in the Caribbean Sea

The surface ocean circulation in the Caribbean Sea is characterized by the interaction between anticyclonic eddies and the Caribbean Upwelling System (CUS). These interactions lead to instabilities that modulate the transfer of kinetic energy up- or down-cascade. The interaction of North Brazil Current rings with the islands leads to the formation of submesoscale vorticity filaments leeward of the Lesser Antilles, thus transferring kinetic energy from large to small scales. Within the Caribbean, the upper ocean dynamic ranges from large-scale currents to coastal upwelling filaments and allow the vertical exchange of physical properties and supply KE to larger scales. In this study, we use a regional model with different spatial resolutions (6, 3, and 1 km), focusing on the Guajira Peninsula and the Lesser Antilles in the Caribbean Sea, in order to evaluate the impact of submesoscale processes on the regional KE energy cascade. Ageostrophic velocities emerge as the Rossby number becomes O(1). As model resolution is increased submesoscale motions are more energetic, as seen by the flatter KE spectra when compared to the lower resolution run. KE injection at the large scales is greater in the Guajira region than in the others regions, being more effectively transferred to smaller scales, thus showing that submesoscale dynamics is key in modulating eddy kinetic energy and the energy cascade within the Caribbean Sea.     

基于WRF模式的青藏高原斜坡和平台加热影响亚洲夏季风的模拟研究

青藏高原大地形的热力强迫作用对亚洲夏季风的形成和发展具有重要的影响.本文利用较高分辨率的WRF区域模式,探讨了高原不同区域(斜坡和平台)的地形加热分别对南亚夏季风和东亚夏季风的影响.结果表明:高原南部喜马拉雅山脉的斜坡地形加热对其周围局地的环流形势和降水影响十分明显,是南亚夏季风北支分量形成和维持的主导因子,也是斜坡上气流爬坡和降水发生的必要条件.斜坡加热对东亚夏季风也有明显的增强作用,它不仅加强了中国东部低空西南季风环流,还会造成北部南下的异常干冷空气的响应.斜坡上的地形加热作用也是对流层高层暖中心位置维持在斜坡上空的一个重要原因.而高原平台加热对季风环流和降水的影响虽然没有喜马拉雅山脉斜坡加热那么显著,但是对南亚夏季风的影响范围更广,对经向哈得来环流影响更明显,能够调控高原以外更远处热带洋面上的西南季风环流.通过比较高原不同区域地形加热条件下的多种季风指数,进一步表明了高原地形加热对南亚和东亚夏季风均有增强作用,但是高原不同区域的地形加热对两类夏季风子系统又会产生不一样的影响.     

The Liverpool Bay Coastal Observatory

A pilot Coastal Observatory has been established in Liverpool Bay which integrates (near) real-time measurements with coupled models and whose results are displayed on the web. The aim is to understand the functioning of coastal seas, their response to natural forcing and the consequences of human activity. The eastern Irish Sea is an apt test site, since it encompasses a comprehensive range of processes found in tidally dominated coastal seas, including near-shore physical and biogeochemical processes influenced by estuarine inflows, where both vertical and horizontal gradients are important. Applications include hypernutrification, since the region receives significantly elevated levels of nutrient inputs, shoreline management (coastal flooding and beach erosion/accretion), and understanding present conditions to predict the impact of climate change (for instance if the number and severity of storms, or of high or low river flows, change). The integrated measurement suite which started in August 2002 covers a range of space and time scales. It includes in situ time series, four to six weekly regional water column surveys, an instrumented ferry, a shore-based HF radar system measuring surface currents and waves, coastal tide gauges and visible and infra-red satellite data. The time series enable definition of the seasonal cycle, its inter-annual variability and provide a baseline from which the relative importance of events can be quantified. A suite of nested 3D hydrodynamic, wave and ecosystem models is run daily, focusing on the observatory area by covering the ocean/shelf of northwest Europe (at 12-km resolution) and the Irish Sea (at 1.8 km), and Liverpool Bay at the highest resolution of 200 m. The measurements test the models against events as they happen in a truly 3D context. All measurements and model outputs are displayed freely on the Coastal Observatory website () for an audience of researchers, education, coastal managers and the public.     

Assimilating along-track SLA data using the EnOI in an eddy resolving model of the Agulhas system

The greater Agulhas Current is one of the most energetic current systems in the global ocean. It plays a fundamental role in determining the mean state and variability of the regional marine environment, affecting its resources and ecosystem, the regional weather and the global climate on a broad range of temporal and spatial scales. In the absence of a coherent in-situ and satellite-based observing system in the region, modelling and data assimilation techniques play a crucial role in both furthering the quantitative understanding and providing better forecasts of this complicated western boundary current system. In this study, we use a regional implementation of the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model and assimilate along-track satellite sea level anomaly (SLA) data using the Ensemble Optimal Interpolation (EnOI) data assimilation scheme. This study lays the foundation towards the development of a regional prediction system for the greater Agulhas Current system. Comparisons to independent in-situ drifter observations show that data assimilation reduces the error compared to a free model run over a 2-year period. Mesoscale features are placed in more consistent agreement with the drifter trajectories and surface velocity errors are reduced. While the model-based forecasts of surface velocities are not as accurate as persistence forecasts derived from satellite altimeter observations, the error calculated from the drifter measurements for eddy kinetic energy is significantly lower in the assimilation system compared to the persistence forecast. While the assimilation of along-track SLA data introduces a small bias in sea surface temperatures, the representation of water mass properties and deep current velocities in the Agulhas system is improved.     

Numerical studies of wind forced internal waves with a nonhydrostatic model

The nonhydrostatic pressure effects on the generation and propagation of wind-forced internal waves are studied with a two-dimensional numerical ocean model. A one-way directed wind pulse over a stratified ocean initiates surface and internal waves in a closed basin. The studies are performed with horizontal grid sizes in the range from 1 km to 62.5 m. The experiments are performed with both a hydrostatic and a nonhydrostatic model, facilitating systematic studies of the sensitivity of the numerical model results to the grid size and to the nonhydrostatic pressure adjustments. The results show that the nonhydrostatic pressure effects are highly dependent on the grid size and grow with increased resolution. In the internal depression wave, the horizontal nonhydrostatic pressure gradients reach the same order of magnitude as the hydrostatic gradients in the high-resolution nonhydrostatic studies. In these studies, the nonhydrostatic pressure gradients approximately balance the corresponding hydrostatic pressure gradients in the internal depression wave, and the wave degenerates into a train of soliton waves. The time for the soliton form to develop agrees with the steepening timescale calculated from Korteweg-de Vries theory. In the high-resolution hydrostatic model, the internal depression wave takes the form of a single wave front. When the internal waves are generated in the boundary layers, the nonhydrostatic pressure gradients are much smaller than the hydrostatic gradients and the generation processes are not effected by the nonhydrostatic pressure with the present range of grid sizes.