Triggered and tectonic driven earthquakes in the Koyna–Warna region,western India

Two strong M?>?5.0 earthquakes within a span of six months occurred in a triggered seismicity environment in the Koyna–Warna region in western India in 2000. The region is experiencing continued seismicity since the last five decades indicating that this region is close to critical stresses and minor perturbations in the stresses due to reservoir loading and unloading can trigger earthquakes. In the present study we applied the technique developed for identification of prognostic anomalies for tectonic earthquakes to the Koyna–Warna catalogue prior to these two earthquakes with an aim to study the process of source preparation for triggered earthquakes. In case of tectonic earthquakes, unstable conditions in a source zone develop gradually leading to a metastable zone which shows variations in certain seismicity parameters known as prognostic anomalies. Our results indicate that the variations in seismicity parameters before the two strong earthquakes in the Koyna region have a pattern of prognostic anomalies typical of tectonic earthquakes. We conclude that initiation of failure in a metastable zone can be caused both, by external impacts, reservoir loading and unloading in our case, and internal processes of avalanche-like failure development.     

Temporal migration of earthquakes in Koyna–Warna (India) region by pore-fluid diffusion

Continuous occurrences of several thousands of earthquakes in Koyna–Warna region since the initial impoundment (1962) of the Koyna reservoir has attracted the attention of seismologists all over the world to know the exact earthquake physical processes involved. The area has been a site for reservoir-triggered earthquakes for the last four and half decades. Major bursts of seismic activity occurred during 1967, 1973, 1980, 1993, and 2000 and recently in 2005 with magnitudes exceeding 5.0 in the region. A notable southward migration of seismicity has been observed following the impoundment of another reservoir, the nearby Warna reservoir. All the mainshocks suggest that the significant southward migration might be due to pore-pressure diffusion. We have divided the entire period from 1967 to 2007 in several sequences starting by a mainshock of M >5. Each sequence is critically analyzed in terms of triggering by the diffusion process through the fractured medium. The pore-fluid diffusion tensor D for each sequence is estimated based on Darcy’s law. The direction of temporal migration of seismicity of each sequence except 1980 is correlated well with the eigenvectors of diffusion. The fluid flow eigenvectors are constrained with one of the strike directions of the focal mechanisms. The frequency magnitude distribution shows the b value to vary from 0.5 to 1.2. Spatial distribution of the b value further indicates that the area along the major faults is more prone to future earthquake.     

The behavior of seasonal variations in induced seismicity in the Koyna–Warna region,western India

Based on the earthquake catalog data for the Koyna–Warna region of induced seismicity in western India, the seasonal variations in seismic activity associated with annual fluctuations in the reservoir water level are analyzed over the time span of the entire history of seismological observations in this region. The regularities in the time changes in the structure of seasonal variations are revealed. The seasonal seismic activity is minimal in May–June when the reservoir level is lowest. During the remaining part of the year, the activity has three peaks: the fall peak in September, winter peak in November–December, and spring peak in February–March. The first mentioned peak, which falls in the phase of the water level reaching its maximal seasonal value is considered as the immediate response of the fluid saturated medium to the additional loading under the weight of reservoir water. The two subsequent maxima concur with the decline phase in the reservoir level and are interpreted as the delayed response associated with the changes in the properties of the medium due to water diffusion. It is shown that the intensities of the immediate and delayed responses to the seasonal water level variations both vary with time as does their ratio. The probable factors affecting the variations in the intensity of the seasonal components of the reservoir-induced seismicity are discussed.     

Hydromechanics of the Koyna–Warna Region, India

Continuous reservoir-induced seismicity has been observed in the Koyna–Warna region in western India following the beginning of impoundment of Koyna and Warna Reservoirs in 1961 and 1985, respectively. This seismicity includes 19 events with M ≥ 5.0 which occurred in 7 episodes (I–VII) between 1967 and 2005 at non-repeating hypocentral locations. In this study, we examined the first six episodes. The seismicity occurs by diffusion of pore pressures from the reservoirs to hypocentral locations along a saturated, critically stressed network of NE trending faults and NW trending fractures. We used the daily lake levels in the two reservoirs, from impoundment to 2000, to calculate the time history of the diffused pore pressures and their daily rate of change at the hypocentral locations. The results of our analysis indicate that Episodes I and IV are primarily associated with the initial filling of the two reservoirs. The diffused pore pressures are generated by the large (20–45 m) annual fluctuations of lake levels. We interpret that critical excess pore pressures >~300 kPa and >~600 kPa were needed to induce Episodes I–III and Episodes IV–VI, respectively, suggesting the presence of stronger faults in the region. The exceedance of the previous water level maxima (stress memory) was found to be the most important, although not determining factor in inducing the episodes. The annual rise of 40 m or more, rapid filling rates and elevated dp/dt values over a filling cycle, contributed to the rapid increase in pore pressure.     

Reservoir induced seismicity in the Koyna–Warna region,India: Overview of the recent results and hypotheses

The state of the art in the geological and geophysical study of the region of Koyna and Warna water reservoirs is reviewed. The probable geodynamical factors of induced seismicity are discussed. The detailed geophysical surveys, satellite geodetic data, and time history of the seismicity in the region reveal a complicated pattern of the structure and recent geodynamics of the region. The existing data suggest that the induced seismicity is here most likely to be caused by the regional (intraplate) stresses driving the displacements along the orthogonal network of the faults whose strength has dropped and continues decreasing due to the reservoir impoundment and operation processes. The evolution of the seismicity which started immediately after the rapid filling of the Koyna reservoir in the region of the dam, then rapidly expanded southwards and eventually became concentrated in the region of the subsequently constructed Warna reservoir shows that seismic events can be initiated by a number of factors whose contributions may vary with time. The key ones among them include reservoir loading and its seasonal variations; water saturation of the faults which guide the propagation of the front of fracture, increased permeability, and, probably, mineral transformations (hydrolysis) under the water level fluctuations in the reservoirs; and displacement of the front of the high pore pressure down to the main source zone of the earthquakes at a depth of 6–8 km. Based on the analysis presented in the paper, we outline the directions of the future research aimed at studying the nature and dynamics of induced seismicity in the region of large water reservoirs.     

Temporal variation of b value associated with M ��4 earthquakes in the reservoir-triggered seismic environment of the Koyna�CWarna region, Western India

It is generally found that the b values associated with reservoir-triggered seismicity (RTS) are higher than the regional b values in the frequency magnitude relation of earthquakes. In the present study, temporal and spatial variation of b value is investigated using a catalog of 3,000 earthquakes from August 2005 through December 2010 for the Koyna?CWarna region in Western India, which is a classical site of RTS globally. It is an isolated (30?×?20?km²) zone of seismicity where earthquakes of up to M ??5 are found to occur during phases of loading and unloading of the Koyna and Warna reservoirs situated 25?km apart. For the Warna region, it is found that low b values of 0.6?C0.9 are associated with earthquakes of M ??4 during the loading phase. The percentage correlation of the occurrence of an M????4 earthquake with a low b value outside the 1?? or 2?? level is as high as 78?%. A drastic drop in the b value of about 50?% being reported for an RTS site may be an important precursory parameter for short-term earthquake forecast in the future.     

Seasonal Variations in the b-Value of the Reservoir-Triggered Seismicity in the Koyna–Warna Region,Western India

Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth - Abstract—The analysis of the local earthquake catalog revealed fine features in the behavior of seasonal components of induced seismicity in the...     

Erratum to: Seasonal Variations in the b-Value of the Reservoir-Triggered Seismicity in the Koyna–Warna Region,Western India

Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth - An Erratum to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1134/S1069351322090014     

On the Dynamics of the Seasonal Components of Induced Seismicity in the Koyna–Warna Region,Western India

The spatial and time dynamics are analyzed for the seasonal components of induced seismicity in the Koyna–Warna region of Western India. The peculiarities of the variations in these components are compared to the changes in the local tectonic regime inferred from the focal mechanism data of the earthquakes. Based on this, the hypotheses about the probable nature of the dynamics in the seasonal components of seismicity are suggested. It is noted that the variations in the seasonal seismic activity after the impoundment of the Koyna reservoir in the north are caused by the spatial migration of the induced seismicity and activation of the normal faults in the south. It is hypothesized that the process of fracture migration from the north to the south at this stage advanced the diffusion of the fluid from the Koyna reservoir, and as the water front reached the southern zone of normal faulting, this caused reactivation of the seasonal seismicity. An explanation is suggested for the stronger response of the seasonal activity in the region of Warna reservoir compared to the Koyna area: in contrast to Koyna, filling the Warna reservoir was geographically close to the area of activated seismicity. It is shown that the localization and sizes of the areas of the instantaneous and delayed components in the seasonal activity of the induced seismicity are determined by the localization and sizes of the areas of high stresses created by the increase in the pore pressure in highly permeable fault zones.     

Catalogue of earthquakes (September-November, 1993)

Ｃａｔａｌｏｇｕｅ　ｏｆ　ｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｓ　（Ｓｅｐｔｅｍｂｅｒ－Ｎｏｖｅｍｂｅｒ，１９９３）（陈培善）Ｃａｔａｌｏｇｕｅｏｆｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｓ（Ｓｅｐｔｅｍｂｅｒ－Ｎｏｖｅｍｂｅｒ，１９９３）￥Ｐｅｉ－ＳｈａｎＣＨＥＮ（Ｉｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅ...     

Catalogue of earthquakes(June-August,1993)

Ｃａｔａｌｏｇｕｅｏｆｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｓ（Ｊｕｎｅ－Ａｕｇｕｓｔ，１９９３）Ｐｅｉ－ＳｈａｎＣＨＥＮ（陈培善）（ＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏｆＧｅｏｐｈｙｓｉｃｓ，ＳｔａｔｅＳｅｉｓｍｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌＢｕｒｅａｕ，Ｂｅｉｊｉｎｇ１０００８１，Ｃｈｉｎａ）...     

Double-difference relocation of earthquakes in central-western China, 1992–1999

The double-difference earthquake location algorithm was applied to the relocation of 10,057 earthquakes that occurred in central-western China (21^∘N to 36^∘N, 98^∘E to 111^∘E) during the period from 1992 to 1999. In total, 79,706 readings for P waves and 72,169 readings for S waves were used in the relocation. The relocated seismicity (6,496 earthquakes) images fault structures at seismogenic depths that are in close correlation with the tectonic structure of major fault systems expressed at the surface. The new focal depths confirm that most earthquakes (91%) in this region occur at depths less than 20 km.     

Catalogue of earthquakes(December,1993—February,1994

Ｃａｔａｌｏｇｕｅｏｆｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｓ（Ｄｅｃｅｍｂｅｒ，１９９３──Ｆｅｂｒｕａｒｙ，１９９４）Ｐｅｉ－ＳｈａｎＣＨＥＮ（陈培善）（ＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏｆＧｅｏｐｈｙｓｉｃｓ，ＳｔａｔｅＳｅｉｓｍｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌＢｕｒｅａｕ，Ｂｅｉｊｉｎｇ１...     

Inversion of source parameters for moderate and small earthquakes in Beijing region

Introduction Beijing and the adjacent regions is a significant seismically active area and many geoscien- tists have studied to different extents the non-elastic attenuation and source parameters in the area. GAO et al (1986) and ZHUO et al (1990) studied the coda Q in the Beijing region by the method of dominant frequency and mechanical frequency division with the simulated data. With the con- tinuous construction of digital seismic station network, the digital data are more favorably used…     

Study of oxygen fugacity during magma evolution and ore genesis in the Hongge mafic–ultramafic intrusion,the Panxi region,SW China

Economic concentrations of Fe–Ti oxides occurring as massive layers in the middle and upper parts of the Hongge intrusion are different from other layered intrusions(Panzhihua and Baima) in the Emeishan large igneous province, SW China. This paper reports on the new mineral compositions of magnetite and ilmenite for selected cumulate rocks and clinopyroxene and plagioclase for basalts. We use these data to estimate the oxidation state of parental magmas and during ore formation to constrain the factors leading to the abundant accumulation of Fe–Ti oxides involved with the Hongge layered intrusion. The results show that the oxygen fugacities of parental magma are in the range of FMQ-1.56 to FMQ+0.14, and the oxygen fugacities during the ore formation of the Fe–Ti oxides located in the lower olivine clinopyroxenite zone(LOZ) and the middle clinopyroxenite zone(MCZ) of the Hongge intrusion are in the range of FMQ-1.29 to FMQ-0.2 and FMQ-0.49 to FMQ+0.82, respectively.The MELTS model demonstrates that, as the oxygen fugacity increases from the FMQ-1 to FMQ+1, the proportion of crystallization magnetite increases from 11 % to 16 % and the crystallization temperature of the Fe–Ti oxides advances from 1134 to 1164 °C. The moderate oxygen fugacities for the Hongge MCZ indicate that the oxygen fugacity was not the only factor affecting the crystallization of Fe–Ti oxides. We speculated that theinitial anhydrous magma that arrived at the Hongge shallow magma chamber became hydrous by attracting the H_2O of the strata. In combination with increasing oxygen fugacities from the LOZ(FMQ-1.29 to FMQ-0.2) to the MCZ(FMQ-0.49 to FMQ+0.82), these two factors probably account for the large-scale Fe–Ti oxide ore layers in the MCZ of the Hongge intrusion.     

Influence of attenuation and site on microearthquakes’ spectra in Shillong region, of Northeast, India: A case study

We examine the influence of attenuation and site on the spectra of microearthquakes having origin within the Shillong region. The ratios of spectral amplitudes at lower and higher frequencies are measured for three different stations at varying epicentral distances to estimate Q value for both P- and S-wave in near and sub-surface layer. The average estimates of Q _P and Q _S are found to be 178 and 195. The ratio of Q _S to Q _P emerges to be greater than unity in major parts of the Shillong area, suggesting dominance of dry crust prevailing in Shillong region. The variation in corner frequencies for these spectra is inferred to be characteristics of the site. Besides, the disparity in spectral content with reference to hard rock site yields the inference that the incoming seismic signals get amplified considerably while traversing from southern part to northeastern part of Shillong, best outlined at 2 to 5 Hz, which is well corroborated by the existing lithology.     

Plumb line variation at Tangshan during 1987–1998 and its relation with the earthquakes around

Plumb line variations (PLV) at Tangshan during the years of 1987–1998 are determined by using the 46 batch repeated gravity observations of the Beijing-Tangshan network. It has been found that PLV at Tangshan are related with the 38 earthquakes in this period. It appears that the time of an earthquake around Tangshan is usually quite the same when PLV at Tangshan begins moving in opposite direction. Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 10633030)     

Quasi-periodic fluctuations in the Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian Seas region in a coupled climate model

We report an analysis of the mechanisms responsible for interannual variability in the Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian (GIN) Seas in a control integration of the HadCM3 coupled climate model. Interannual variability in sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface salinity (SSS) is dominated by a quasi-periodic ∼7-year signal. Analyses show that the mechanism involves a competition between convection and advection. Advection carries cold, fresh, Arctic water over warm, salty, Atlantic water, while convection periodically mixes these two water masses vertically, raising SST. Convection is able to raise SST because of the presence of a subsurface temperature maximum. The GIN Seas convection in HadCM3 is forced by wind stress anomalies related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The consequent SST anomalies feedback positively to force the atmosphere, resulting in a weak spectral peak (at ∼7 years) in GIN Seas sea level pressure. Although there is no evidence of a similar oscillation in reality, key aspects of the simulated mechanism may be relevant to understanding variability in the real GIN Seas. In particular, the potential for increases in convection to raise SST offers a possible new explanation for increases in SST that occurred between the 1960s and the late 1980s/early 1990s. These SST increases may have contributed to the observed sea-ice retreat. In addition, a positive feedback between GIN Seas SST and the atmosphere could contribute to the persistence of the NAO, potentially helping to explain its red spectrum or recent northeastward shift.

Migration of sources of small earthquakes in the Garm region and variations in velocity of the Earth’s rotation

The spatial-temporal variations in localization of the sources of earthquakes with H ≥ 14 km are reviewed for the Garm region. The uneven distribution of such earthquakes is related to the block structure: their amount is higher in the weakened zones rather than in blocks. Three weakened zones are characterized by higher activity of deepened seismicity, which varies in time and increases before the earthquakes with K ≥ 12.5. The temporal variations in distribution of earthquake sources with depth allow a suggestion of the relation of the velocity of the Earth’s rotation and activity of deepened seismicity.