Rheological modelling of measuring systems of quartz gravity meters

Summary Some phenomena, recorded during pressure tests of quartz gravity meters, are studied theoretically using a model of the visco-elastic continuum. Expressions, describing the response of the measuring system as a function of the time variation of pressure disturbances, are derived by solving the appropriate rheological equations.

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Motion of particles in turbulent flow: Hyperbolicity,strange attractors and dynamic stochasticity of a system

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CUTLASS HF radar observations of high-latitude azimuthally propagating vortical currents in the nightside ionosphere during magnetospheric substorms

High-time resolution CUTLASS observations and ground-based magnetometers have been employed to study the occurrence of vortical flow structures propagating through the high-latitude ionosphere during magnetospheric substorms. Fast-moving flow vortices (800 m s^–1) associated with Hall currents flowing around upward directed field-aligned currents are frequently observed propagating at high speed (1 km s^–1) azimuthally away from the region of the ionosphere associated with the location of the substorm expansion phase onset. Furthermore, a statistical analysis drawn from over 1000 h of high-time resolution, nightside radar data has enabled the characterisation of the bulk properties of these vortical flow systems. Their occurrence with respect to substorm phase has been investigated and a possible generation mechanism has been suggested.     

Primary ionization coefficients for dry and moist air; secondary ionization coefficients for a water surface

Summary A comparison has been made between the Townsend primary ionization coefficient, , for dry air and for air with humidities typical of those in the atmosphere. is defined as the number of new electrons produced by an electron per centimeter of drift in a field. A range of field/pressure ratios,E/p ₀, of 40 to 100 V (cm torr)^–1 was employed. The variation of with humidity is very small.Over the range ofE/p ₀ from 50 to 100 V (cm torr)^–1, the secondary ionization coefficient, , of a water surface has been found from sparking potential data to be typically 2×10^–4. represents the fraction of primary ionizing collisions that ultimately result in the production of additional electrons at the surface.     

On the role of vertical resolution in the analysis of shallow convective fields

Summary The present paper is an attempt to demonstrate the fact that misleading information about the thermodynamic structure of shallow cumulus fields is obtained when standard isobaric level (SIL) data input is used. The 1-D cumulus model serves as the main tool of examination and the reference input data are those of significant levels (SL) in soundings. The computed cloud tops (SIL) exceeded (SL) tops in nearly 80% of the cases and the excesses are more than 1 kilometre in 25% of the cases. Some discrepancies were also found in potential stability analysis. The local changes in equivalent potential temperature may be seriously affected and even falsified. The important role of high resolution in studies of mesoscale phenomena was again accentuated.

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Numerical modelling of time-harmonic seismic wave fields in simple structures by the gaussian beam method. part I

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The binary decision tree: The growing algorithm and application to thunderstorm forecasting

Summary The paper deals with the probabilistic prediction of event occurrence with use of the binary decision tree which is grown from the learning sample. The tree growing algorithm consists in recursive partition of the predictor space by either single-predictor-based (SP) splits or by hyperplanes perpendicular to the best linear discriminant function (BLDF), and is intended to maximally effectively discriminate the elements of the learning sample with event occurrence from the elements without event occurrence.The predictand is the thunderstorm occurrence in the afternoon in Prague, the set of predictors includes variables derived from a midday single-station TEMP-A data (Perfect Prog approach), persistence predictors and predictors related to passages of the fronts across Prague. The experiments are designed to test the performance of the tree growing algorithm — with a stress upon indeterminateness following from the limited size of the learning sample — and to evaluate the predictive potential of the predictors for thunderstorm forecasting. The stability of the tree structure, the optimal size of the tree and the related prognostic skill score increase with increasing size of the learning sample. Employment of the BLDF splits allows quicker and more effective partition of the predictor space on the assumption that the predictor vector has lower dimension and is well behaved (preferably normally distributed). The stability indices of Faust, Showalter and Adedokun were found to be the most effective predictors. Persistence and frontal predictors only slightly contribute to the total prediction skill of the decision tree. The optimally sized tree has only five splitting nodes and employs three thermodynamical predictors, one frontal and one persistence predictor.     

A case study of a radially polarized Pc4 event observed by the Equator-S satellite

A 16 mHz Pc4 pulsation was recorded on March 17, 1998, in the prenoon sector of the Earths magnetosphere by the Equator-S satellite. The event is strongly localized in radial direction at approximately L = 5 and exhibits properties of a field line resonance such as an ellipticity change as seen by applying the method of the analytical signal to the magnetic field data. The azimuthal wave number was estimated as m 150. We discuss whether this event can be explained by the FLR mechanism and find out that the change in ellipticity is more a general feature of a localized Alfvén wave than indicative of a resonant process.     

Real time test of the long-range aftershock algorithm as a tool for mid-term earthquake prediction in Southern California

Result of the algorithm of earthquake prediction, published in 1982, is examined in this paper. The algorithm is based on the hypothesis of long-range interaction between strong and moderate earthquakes in a region. It has been applied to the prediction of earthquakes withM6.4 in Southern California for the time interval 1932–1979. The retrospective results were as follows: 9 out of 10 strong earthquakes were predicted with average spatial accuracy of 58 km and average delay time (the time interval between a strong earthquake and its best precursor) 9.4 years varying from 0.8 to 27.9 years. During the time interval following the period studied in that publication, namely in 1980–1988, four earthquakes occurred in the region which had a magnitude ofM6.4 at least in one of the catalogs: Caltech or NOAA. Three earthquakes—Coalinga of May, 1983, Chalfant Valley of July, 1985 and Superstition Hills of November, 1987—were successfully predicted by the published algorithm.The missed event is a couple of two Mammoth Lake earthquakes of May, 1980 which we consider as one event due to their time-space closeness. This event occurred near the northern boundary of the region, and it also would have been predicted if we had moved the northern boundary from 38°N to the 39°N; the precision of the prediction in this case would be 30 km.The average area declared by the algorithm as the area of increased probability of strong earthquake, e.g., the area within 111-km distance of all long-range aftershocks currently present on the map of the region during 1980–1988 is equal to 47% of the total area of the region if the latter is measured in accordance with the density distribution of earthquakes in California, approximated by the catalog of earthquakes withM5. In geometrical terms it is approximately equal to 17% of the total area.Thus the result of the real time test shows a 1.6 times increase of the occurrence ofC-events in the alarmed area relative to the normal rate of seismicity. Due to the small size of the sample, it is of course, beyond the statistically significant value. We adjust the parameters of the algorithm in accordance with the new material and publish them here for further real-time testing.     

Precursory seismic quiescence: Past,present, and future

Precursory seismic quiescence has played a major role in most of the succesful earthquake predictions made to date. In addition to these successes, the number of detailed post-mainshock documentations of precursory quiescence is steadily growing. These facts suggest that precursory quiescence will play an important role in earthquake prediction programs of the future. For this reason it is important to critically evaluate the present state of knowledge concerning this phenomenon. The history of observations of precursory seismic quiescence includes work on seismic gaps and seismic preconditions as well as actual studies of temporal quiescence. These papers demonstrated the importance of quantitative evaluation of seismicity rates and the benefits of systematic analysis. During the early 1980's the impact of man-made effects on seismicity rates was demonstrated for the first time. Despite progress in catalog understanding, the identification and correction of man-made seismicity changes remains as the major barrier to earthquake prediction using these data. Effects of man-made changes are apparent in many past studies of seismicity patterns, making the results difficult to evaluate. Recent experience with real-time anomalies has demonstrated the necessity of determining the false alarm rates associated with quiescence precursors. Determination of false alarm rates depends on quantitative definitions of anomalies and statistical evaluations of their significance. A number of successful predictions, which have been made on the basis of seismic quiescence, provide important lessons for present and future work. There are many presently unanswered questions regarding seismic quiescence which must be answered before we can determine the reliability of this phenomena as a precursor.     

Case 25 application of the concentration parameter of seismoactive faults to Southern California

In this paper we evaluate the present state of the seismic regime in Southern California using the concentration parameter of seismogenic faults (K _sf ,Sobolev andZavyalov, 1981). The purpose of this work is to identify potential sites for large earthquakes during the next five or ten years. The data for this study derived from the California Institute of Technology's catalog of southern California earthquakes, and spanned the period between 1932 to June 1982. We examined events as small asM _L 1.8 but used a magnitude cutoff atM _L =3.3 for a detailed analysis. The size of the target earthquakes (M _M ) was chosen as 5.3 and 5.8.The algorithm for calculatingK _sf used here was improved over the algorithm described bySobolev andZavyalov (1981) in that it considered the seismic history of each elementary seismoactive volume. The dimensions of the elementary seismoactive volumes were 50 km×50 km and 20 km deep. We found that the mean value ofK _sf within 6 months prior to the target events was 6.1±2.0 for target events withM _L 5.3 and 5.41.8 for targets withM _L 5.8. Seventy-three percent of the targets withM _L 5.8 occurred in areas whereK _sf was less than 6.1. The variance of the time between the appearance of areas with lowK _sf values and the following main shocks was quite large (from a few months to ten years) so this parameter cannot be used here for accurate predictions of occurrence time.Regions where the value ofK _sf was below 6.1 at the end of our data set (June, 1982) are proposed as the sites of target earthquakes during the next five to ten years. The most dangerous area is the area east of San Bernardino whereK _sf values are presently between 2.9 and 3.7 and where there has been no earthquake withM _L 5.3 since 1948.     

Time variations of geomagnetic activity indices Kp and Ap: an update

Kp and Ap indices covering the period 1932 to 1995 are analysed in a fashion similar to that attempted by Bartels for the 1932–1961 epoch to examine the time variations in their characteristics. Modern analysis techniques on the extended data base are used for further insight. The relative frequencies of occurrence of Kp with different magnitudes and the seasonal and solar cycle dependences are seen to be remarkably consistent despite the addition of 35 years of observations. Many of the earlier features seen in the indices and special intervals are shown to be replicated in the present analysis. Time variations in the occurrence of prolonged periods of geomagnetic calm or of enhanced activity are presented and their relation to solar activity highlighted. It is shown that in the declining phase the occurrence frequencies of Kp = 4–5 (consecutively over 4 intervals) can be used as a precursor for the maximum sunspot number to be expected in the next cycle. The semiannual variation in geomagnetic activity is reexamined utilising not only the Ap index but also the occurrence frequencies of Kp index with different magnitudes. Lack of dependence of the amplitude of semiannual variation on sunspot number is emphasised. Singular spectrum analysis of the mean monthly Ap index shows some distinct periodic components. The temporal evolution of 44 month, 21 month and 16 month oscillations are examined and it is postulated that while QBO and the 16 month oscillations could be attributed to solar wind and IMF oscillations with analogous periodicity, the 44 month variation is associated with a similar periodicity in recurrent high speed stream caused by sector boundary passage. It is reconfirmed that there could have been only one epoch around 1940 when solar wind speed could have exhibited a 1.3-year periodicity comparable to that seen during the post-1986 period.     

Uranium in peridotite inclusions in basalts from Hoggar (Southern Algeria)

Abundances of U have been determined in minerals of the spinel peridotite xenoliths in basaltic rocks from Hoggar (Southern Algeria) by the fission-track method. Olivine and spinel have the lowest U abundances ( 0.10–0.13 ppm) followed by orthopyroxene ( 0.22–0.24 ppm). The clinopyroxene has a large variation of U (0.23–0.74 ppm). The contents of U in amphibole are within the range of those of clinopyroxene ( 0.30–0.37 ppm). Although most of the U in the xenoliths is homogeneously distributed in the major rock-forming minerals, the whole-rock U abundances are at least twice as high as estimates of the upper mantle. The high contents of U even in rocks without amphibole is probably due to metasomatism by a fractionated fluid phase which took place before or during the recrystallization. The host basaltic rocks are not genetically related to the spinel peridotite.     

Prediction of water salinity in the Yumaguzinskoe Reservoir under construction

Factors responsible for the formation of water salinity in the Yumaguzinskoe Reservoir, which is under construction in the upper reaches of the Belaya River, are analyzed. Based on the prediction experience and a sufficient amount of initial data on water quality of the Belaya River, the universally accepted algorithm of prediction for years of different water supply levels using the calculation method of running-out has been modified. As revealed, the minimum water salinity at the reservoir spillway is observed in May–August, the maximum water salinity being in January–March. The regularities of a general nature have been found.Translated from Vodnye Resursy, Vol. 32, No. 2, 2005, pp. 214–222.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2005 by Popov, Oboldina.     

Heating in the D″-layer and the style of mantle convection

Summary We have investigated the influence of heating in the D-layer on the convection dynamics for the Rayleight number Ra=10⁶. Strong heating, which may represent a local small-scale heat transfer in the D-layer, results in an increase of lateral heterogeneities near the upper and lower boundaries, the blob-like structure of upwellings and the stabilization of the convection pattern. The influence of the electromagnetic heating was found to be too weak to produce any substantial effect which is in contrast with the idea of Braginskii and Meitlis [1].Dedicated to the Memory of K. P     

Radio Emission from Galactic Disks

This paper gives a short overview of the observational results on galactic magnetic fields. Interstellar magnetic fields, as deduced from multi-frequency polarization observations, show a well-ordered structure largely following the spiral arms. In some galaxies an axisymmetric spiral pattern dominates (the field being directed inwards), while others exhibit a dominant bisymmetric spiral field or mixed modes, as predicted from non-linear dynamo theory. As long as star formation activity is low, the magnetic fields are rather regular. Strong star formation leads to turbulent cloud motions and supernova explosions, which tangle the field, so that the radio emission is only weakly polarized. As a consequence the highest fractional polarizations and polarized intensities at centimeter wavelengths are found in interarm regions. At decimeter wavelengths, galactic disks become optically thick for polarized emission. In NGC 6946 the regular field is concentrated in narrow magnetic arms located in between the optical spiral arms. The field cannot simply be frozen into the gas and oriented by a density-wave flow. A galactic dynamo may provide a stable spiral pattern of the field, but non-axisymmetric models are still being developed.     

Statistical analysis of earthquake activity at Etna volcano (March 1981 eruption)

Seismic activity that preceded, accompanied, and followed the 17–23 March 1981 Etnean eruption has been statistically analyzed.On the grounds of both time evolution of seismicity and catalogue completeness, three time intervals have been defined (12 February–2 March, 12–17 March, 19–31 March) and for each of these periods both the b coefficient of theGutenberg-Richter's (1956) relationship and the E parameter of the cluster size (Shlien andToksoz, 1970) have been calculated.No significant variations were observed between the first and third periods, while lower values of bothb andE coefficients were found in the second one. These findings might indicate that changes in the seismicity features occur just before the eruption start.Small but fast variations in the stress field acting on the volcano might originate this type of seismic activity, while the importance of the tectonic control on volcanic phenomena seems to be confirmed.     

Hm-wave filtration in a horizontally stratified Earth's magnetosphere

Summary Drawing on papers [4, 5] a semi-quantitative model of filtration and resonance of a linearly polarized HM-wave has been constructed in a horizontally stratified Earth atmosphere. The wave is filtered in a system of 3 homogeneous layers, limited by two halfspaces. Attenuation of the wave is only assumed in the lower layer, i.e. in the ionosphere. A relation has been derived for the amplitude coupling factor H_T/H_F expressing the absolute ratio of the amplitude of the wave after transmission through the system of layers and the amplitude of the wave, incident at the system of layers. The mechanism of geomagnetic pulsations is illustrated on the principle of the resonance of a HM-wave in the Earth's magnetosphere. The magnetosphere has been replaced by the said system of layers, and the dependence of H_T/H_F=f() on the parameters of the system of layers has been studied using a computer.