Splitting of the subtropical gyre in the western North Pacific

Examined here is a hypothetical idea of the splitting of the subtropical gyre in the western North Pacific on the basis of two independent sources of data,i.e., the long-term mean geopotential-anomaly data compiled by the Japanese Oceanographic Data Center and the synoptic hydrographic (STD) data taken by the Hakuho Maru in the source region of the Kuroshio and the Subtropical Countercurrent in the period February and March 1974. Both of the synoptic and the long-term mean dynamic-topographic maps reveal three major ridges, which indicate that the western subtropical gyre is split into three subgyres. Each subgyre is made up of the pair of currents, the Kuroshio and the Kuroshio Countercurrent, the Subtropical Countercurrent and a westward flow lying just south of the Countercurrent (18°N–21°N), and the northern part of the North Fquatorial Current and an eastward flow at around 18°N. The subgyres are more or less composed of a train of anticyclonic eddies with meridional scales of between 300 and 600 km, so that the volume transport of the subgyres varies by a factor of two or more from section to section. The upper-water characteristics also support the splitting of the subtropical gyre; the water characteristics are fairly uniform within each subgyre, but markedly different between them. The northern rim of each subgyre appears as a sharp density front accompanied by an eastward flow. The bifurcations of the sharp density fronts across the western boundary current indicate that the major part of the surface waters in the North Equatorial Countercurrent is not brought into the Kuroshio. The western boundary current appears as a continuous feature of high speed, but the waters transported change discontinuously at some places.     

Photosynthetic community responses to upwelling in mesoscale eddies in the subtropical North Atlantic and Pacific Oceans

In this paper we summarise the photo-physiological responses of phytoplankton to upwelling of macronutrients in mesoscale eddies in the subtropical North Atlantic (EDDIES project, Sargasso Sea) and subtropical North Pacific (E-FLUX project, Hawaii). The observations, obtained on two sets of cruises over 2 years, occupied six cyclonic eddies and two mode-water eddies. The photosynthetic physiological parameters were measured using a bench-top fluorescence induction and relaxation (FIRe) system and a submersible in situ fast repetition rate fluorometer (FRRF) deployed on an undulating towed vehicle. Both of these instruments were used to provide highly sensitive and well-resolved data on community responses. The responses are dependent on both the type of eddy and its stage of development. Our results indicate that, while cyclonic eddies in the Atlantic and Pacific can increase primary photosynthetic production early in their development, mode-water eddies in the subtropical North Atlantic can support patchy blooms of large diatoms for long periods of time (more than 3 months).     

西太平洋副热带高压变化与赤道太平洋海温场的联系

通过对西太平洋副热带高压变化的多年统计分析,发现其具有明显的年际和年代际变化特征,副高面积和强度均存在3~4 a和11~14 a显著周期,副高西伸脊点存在3~5 a和准13 a显著周期。副高面积和强度变化基本一致,与赤道中东太平洋海表温度（SST）存在显著的正相关关系,西伸脊点与中东太平洋海表温度变化则存在负的相关关系。赤道太平洋不同经度的SST与副高变化存在明显的差异,赤道中太平洋SST异常与副高变化的关系最为密切,东太平洋相对偏弱,而西太平洋呈现相反的相关关系。由此可以认为,赤道中太平洋异常SST变化是影响副高变化的关键区域。根据它们之间存在的密切关系,通过回归分析,建立了它们二者之间的回归方程,对2013年春夏季副高的强度和西伸脊点位置变化进行了预测,为2013年我国汛期降水预测提供一定的参考。     

Enhancement of particulate organic carbon export flux induced by atmospheric forcing in the subtropical oligotrophic northwest Pacific Ocean

The effects of extreme atmospheric forcing on the export flux of particulate organic carbon (POC) in the warm oligotrophic nitrogen-limited northwest Pacific Ocean were examined in 2007 during the spring Asian dust storm period. Several strong northeast monsoon events (maximum sustained wind speeds approaching 16.7 m s^? 1, and gusts up to 19.0 m s^? 1) accompanied by dust storms occurred during a 1-month period. The cold stormy events decreased surface water temperature and induced strong wind-driven vertical mixing of the water column, resulting in nutrient entrainment into the mixed layer from subsurface waters. As a result, the export flux of POC ranged from 49 to 98 (average value = 71 ± 16) mg m^? 2 day^? 1, approximately 2–3 times greater than average values in other seasons. As dry and wet deposition of nitrogen attributable to Asian dust storm events does not account for the associated increases in POC stocks in this N-limited oligotrophic oceanic region, the enhancement of POC flux must have been caused by nutrient entrainment from subsurface waters because of the high winds accompanying the dust storm events.     

Selective depressions of surface silicic acid within cyclonic mesoscale eddies in the oligotrophic western North Pacific

To reveal spatial dynamics of silicic acid [Si(OH)₄] in the poorly sampled oligotrophic western North Pacific, we investigated the surface distribution of Si(OH)₄ and associated biogeochemical parameters by using an underway survey system with a highly sensitive nutrient analyzer along the 138°E transect (between 30 and 34°N) and the 155°E transect (between 10 and 35°N) during the summers of 2007 and 2008. Surface Si(OH)₄ concentrations ranged from the detection limit (11 nmol L⁻¹) to 2462 nmol L⁻¹. High Si(OH)₄ concentrations (>1000 nmol L⁻¹) and dynamic fluctuations were generally observed north of 23°N, while consistently stable low concentrations of 415–751 nmol L⁻¹ were observed south of 23°N. Surface nitrate+nitrite (N+N) and phosphate (PO₄³⁻) were typically depleted to <20 nmol L⁻¹, except for PO₄³⁻ in the area south of 16°N. The majority of the study area was characterized by high-Si(OH)₄ and low-N+N and PO₄³⁻. However, submesoscale/mesoscale depressions of Si(OH)₄ were locally observed in the cyclonic eddy fields north of 23°N. Among a total of six Si(OH)₄ depressions within the eddies, a complete Si(OH)₄ depletion (<11 nmol L⁻¹) was observed on the cyclonic side near the Kuroshio axis (33.1°N, 138°E). This depletion was closely coupled with a diatom bloom, suggesting that Si(OH)₄ was exhausted by diatoms. All of the Si(OH)₄ depressions were selective and not accompanied by local depressions of N+N and PO₄³⁻. This unique phenomenon might be driven by biogeochemical processes such as selective Si export (Si pump), anomalous Si uptake associated with diatom physiology, and/or Si uptake supported by N₂ fixation.     

Influence of Asian monsoon and ENSO events on particle fluxes in the western subtropical Pacific

A time-series sediment trap was deployed from October 2007 to May 2011 in the western subtropical Pacific with the aim of understanding the seasonal and inter-annual variability on particle flux in response to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Total mass fluxes varied from 3.04 mg m⁻² day⁻¹ to 31.1 mg m⁻² day⁻¹, with high fluxes during February–April and low fluxes during other months. This seasonal variation was also characterized by a distinct change in the CaCO₃ flux between the two periods. The marked increase in particle flux during February–April may be attributed to enhanced biological productivity in surface waters caused by strong wind-driven mixing in response to the western North Pacific monsoon system. The 2009/10 strong El Niño was accompanied by a significant reduction in particle flux, whereas the La Niña had no recognizable effect on particle flux in the subtropical Pacific. In particular, in the mature phase of the 2009/10 strong El Niño, the fluxes of organic carbon and biogenic silica decreased by 70–80% compared with those during the normal period, implying that the El Niño acted to suppress biological productivity in surface waters. The suppression of biological productivity during the 2009/10 strong El Niño is attributed to the decrease in precipitation due to the shift in the western Pacific warm pool. This finding is opposite that of other studies of the western equatorial Pacific, where El Niño events were observed to result in an increase in biological productivity and particle flux. The difference in particle flux between the western equatorial and subtropical Pacific is attributed to the regional differences in oceanic and atmospheric circulation systems generated by the strong El Niño.     

Response of the western North Pacific subtropical ocean to the slow-moving super typhoon Nanmadol

Based on in-situ observation,satellite and reanalysis data,responses of the western North Pacific subtropical ocean(WNPSO)to the slow-moving category 5 super typhoon Nanmadol in 2011 are analyzed.The dynamical response is dominated by near-inertial currents and Ekman currents with maximum amplitude of 0.39m/s and 0.15m/s,respectively.The near-inertial currents concentrated around 100m below the sea surface and had an e-folding timescale of 4 days.The near-inertial energy propagated both upward and downward,and the vertical phase speed and wavelength were estimated to be 5m/h and 175m,respectively.The frequency of the near-inertial currents was blue-shifted near the surface and redshifted in ocean interior which may relate to wave propagation and/or background vorticity.The resultant surface cooling reaches-4.35℃ and happens when translation speed of Nanmadol is smaller than 3.0m/s.When Nanmadol reaches super typhoon intensity,the cooling is less than 3.0℃ suggesting that the typhoon translation speed plays important roles as well as typhoon intensity in surface cooling.Upwelling induced by the slow-moving typhoon wind leads to typhoon track confined cooling area and the right-hand bias of cooling is slight.The mixed layer cooling and thermocline warming are induced by wind-generated upwelling and vertical entrainment.Vertical entrainment also led to mixed layer salinity increase and thermocline salinity decrease,however,mixed layer salinity decrease occurs at certain stations as well.Our results suggest that typhoon translation speed is a vital factor responsible for the oceanic thermohaline and dynamical responses,and the small Mach number(slow typhoon translation speed)facilitate development of Ekman current and upwelling.     

热带西太平洋海表盐度的变化特征及其对淡水通量的响应

基于1980~2015年的全球简单海洋资料同化分析系统(SODA)、全球海气通量(OAFlux)和全球降水气候学计划(GPCP)等海洋、大气观测再分析资料,采用线性拟合、经验正交函数(EOF)分解、相关分析和波谱分析等数理统计方法,分析了热带西太平洋海表盐度(SSS)和淡水通量时空变化特征及其关系.结果表明,SSS与淡水通量的气候态及长期线性变化趋势有较好的空间对应关系,两者均有多种时间尺度的EOF模态,其年代际变化模态有较好的正相关关系,并与太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)有密切的滞后相关.分析表明,PDO可能通过影响Walker环流的变化来影响热带西太平洋的淡水通量分布,从而影响SSS的时空格局.     

西太平洋副热带高压的变动对我国赤潮发生的影响分析

根据1933—2012年间我国海域赤潮发生的相关记录和数据,分析了西太平洋副热带高压对我国海域赤潮发生的影响,赤潮多发区集中在西太副高北界和地面锋区带海域。3大海区赤潮发生次数与西太副高的相关程度不同:东海渤、黄海南海。西太副高偏强、位置异常偏西、脊线偏南年份东海赤潮发生次数会偏多,渤、黄海赤潮发生次数会偏少。反之,西太副高偏弱、位置异常偏东、脊线偏北年份东海赤潮发生次数会偏少,渤、黄海赤潮发生次数会偏多。     

N2 fixation variability in the oligotrophic Sulu Sea, western equatorial Pacific region over the past 83 kyr

N₂ fixation is an important biological process that adds new nitrogen to oceans and plays a key role in modulating the oceanic nitrate inventory. However, it is not known how, when, and where N₂ fixation rates have varied in response to past climate changes. This study presents a new record of nitrogen isotopic composition (δ¹⁵N) over the last 83 kyr from a sediment core (KH02-4 SUP8) taken in the Sulu Sea in the western equatorial Pacific region; data allow the N₂ fixation variability in the sea to be reconstructed. Sediments, sinking, and suspended particulate organic matter (POM) all have lighter isotopic values compared to the δ¹⁵N values of substrate nitrate (av. 5.8‰) in North Pacific Intermediate Water. These lighter δ¹⁵N values are regarded as reflecting N₂ fixation in the Sulu Sea surface water. A δ¹⁵N mass balance model shows that N₂ fixation rates were significantly enhanced during 54–34 kyr in MIS-3 and MIS-2. It has been speculated that higher interglacial denitrification rates in the Arabian Sea and the eastern tropical Pacific would have markedly decreased the global oceanic N inventory and contributed to the increase in N₂ fixation in oligotrophic regions, but such a model was not revealed by our study. It is possible that changes in N₂ fixation rates in the Sulu Sea were regional response, and accumulation of phosphate in the surface waters due to enhanced monsoon-driven mixing is thought to have stimulated enhancements of N₂ fixation during MIS-3 and MIS-2.     

Seasonal changes in the mesozooplankton biomass and community structure in subarctic and subtropical time-series stations in the western North Pacific

Seasonal changes in mesozooplankton biomass and their community structures were observed at time-series stations K2 (subarctic) and S1 (subtropical) in the western North Pacific Ocean. At K2, the maximum biomass was observed during the spring when primary productivity was still low. The annual mean biomasses in the euphotic and 200- to 1000-m layers were 1.39 (day) and 2.49 (night) g C m^?2 and 4.00 (day) and 3.63 (night) g C m^?2, respectively. Mesozooplankton vertical distribution was bimodal and mesopelagic peak was observed in a 200- to 300-m layer; it mainly comprised dormant copepods. Copepods predominated in most sampling layers, but euphausiids were dominant at the surface during the night. At S1, the maximum biomass was observed during the spring and the peak timing of biomass followed those of chlorophyll a and primary productivity. The annual mean biomasses in the euphotic and 200- to 1000-m layers were 0.10 (day) and 0.21 (night) g C m^?2 and 0.47 (day) and 0.26 (night) g C m^?2, respectively. Copepods were dominant in most sampling layers, but their mean proportion was lower than that in K2. Mesozooplankton community characteristics at both sites were compared with those at other time-series stations in the North Pacific and with each other. The annual mean primary productivities and sinking POC fluxes were equivalent at both sites; however, mesozooplankton biomasses were higher at K2 than at S1. The difference of biomasses was probably caused by differences of individual carbon losses, population turnover rates, and trophic structures of communities between the two sites.     

Abnormality of thermal structure and current in the upper western tropical Pacific Ocean and its effect on subtropical high

-Mainly on the basis of the data obtained during PRC/US bilateral TOGA cruises, abnormal variation occurred during the 1986/1987 El Nino is shown in this paper about the thermal structure and circulation of the upper western tropical Pacific Ocean. The effects of the abmormal variation on the subtropical high over the Northwest Pacific Ocean are discussed. During the El Nino: (1) In the east part of the western tropical Pacific Ocean (the subsurface temperature data on the 165° E section are taken as an example), the water wanner than 29 C in the upper layer spread on the longitudinal section and positive temperature anormalies appeared in a large area of the sea surface. (2) In the west part of the western tropical Pacific Ocean (the subsurface temperature data on the 137°E section are representative ), the cross section occupied by the upper layer warmer water ( T >28 ℃ ) became shrunk, and the sea surface temperature showed negative amomalies. (3) The eastward flows in the upper layer of the 165°     

Mesoscale decrease of surface phosphate and associated phytoplankton dynamics in the vicinity of the subtropical South Pacific islands

Surface distributions of nutrients and phytoplankton were investigated in the vicinity of the subtropical South Pacific islands by using a continuous underway system with a highly sensitive nutrient analysis. A total of 17 transects, whose lengths ranged between 42 and 271 km, were sampled for continuous nutrient measurements. The study area was characterized by an overall depletion of nitrate+nitrite (<15 nM), but phosphate varied from 7 to 192 nM. The transects were grouped into 4 patterns according to distribution of phosphate concentrations. In 7 transects, a mesoscale decrease in phosphate occurred, coinciding with an elevation of in vivo chlorophyll fluorescence, which was accompanied by an increase in phytoplankton abundance as revealed by microscopy, flow cytometry, and accessory pigments. This mirror–image relationship between the phosphate concentration and phytoplankton abundance was most apparent on both a 99-km transect east of Tonga, where the phosphate concentration ranged from 17 to 125 nM, and on a 98-km transect west of Fiji, where the phosphate concentration ranged from 23 to 136 nM. Both these transects contained distinct blooms of Trichodesmium in areas with the lowest concentrations of phosphate. In other 2 transects, fluctuations in phosphate concentrations showed no distinct relationship with chlorophyll fluorescence. Other patterns that emerged included consistently high concentrations, ranging from 109 to 192 nM, in 5 transects and consistently low phosphate concentrations, ranging from 7 to 50 nM, in 3 transects. Abundance of Trichodesmium, Prochlorococcus, Synechococcus, and all accessory pigments examined tended to be higher in the low phosphate transects than in the high phosphate ones. In particular, Trichodesmium occurred in low phosphate water (<25 nM). There was no significant relationship between phosphate concentrations and nanoplanktonic unicellular cyanobacteria. Our observations suggest that surface phosphate decreases are associated with phytoplankton utilization of phosphate, and that nitrogen supply from Trichodesmium may contributes to this utilization.     

Sensitive determination of enzymatically labile dissolved organic phosphorus and its vertical profiles in the oligotrophic western North Pacific and East China Sea

Trace concentrations of labile dissolved organic phosphorus (LDOP) in oligotrophic seawater were measured by use of an enzymatic procedure and a nanomolar phosphate analytical system consisting of a gas-segmented continuous flow analyzer with a liquid waveguide capillary cell. LDOP, defined as DOP hydrolyzed by alkaline phosphatase (AP) from Escherichia coli, was quantified as the difference between the phosphate concentrations of the seawater sample with and without AP treatment. For sensitive measurement of LDOP, we found that phosphate contamination derived from commercially available AP must be corrected, and azide treatment before AP treatment proved effective in removing biological effect that occurs during DOP hydrolysis. Field observations at six stations of the western North Pacific and the East China Sea during the boreal summer revealed that, in the upper 200 m of the water column, LDOP concentrations ranged from the detection limit (3 nM) to 243 nM, and phosphate concentrations ranged from 5 to 374 nM. The spatial distribution patterns of LDOP were similar to those of phosphate. Most of the depth profiles for LDOP and phosphate showed concentrations were extremely low, <25 nM, between the surface and the deep chlorophyll maximum layer (DCML) and increased below the DCML. Strongly depleted LDOP and phosphate above the DCML suggest that LDOP is actively hydrolyzed under phosphate-depleted conditions and utilized by microbes.     

Plankton dynamics and carbon flux in an area of upwelling off the coast of Morocco

A carbon flux study was carried out off the coast of Morocco, at 31°N, in a region characterized by the presence of a persistent cyclonic eddy. Two short-term (4 and 3 day) deployments of free-floating sediment traps were combined with water column sampling and rate process measurements as the ship followed the traps. For a period of 36 h between trap deployments, a hydrographic section was run along 31°30'N as part of a larger scale survey being carried out simultaneously on the R.V. A. von Humboldt. The first trap deployment was near the eastern margin of the eddy and the traps moved to the north and west in a frontal jet associated with its northern boundary. After the second deployment, which was at the recovery point of the first, the traps moved to the west and then to the southwest. Throughout the study, chlorophyll concentrations varied between 27 and 125 mg m⁻² (0–100 m), with highest concentrations in the upwelled water nearest the coast and in upwelled water generated within the cyclonic eddy. Particulate organic carbon (POC) and particulate organic nitrogen (PON) concentrations were relatively uniform (13.6±1.8 and 1.63±28 g m⁻² with phytoplankton carbon accounting for 16–85% of total POC. Bacterial carbon was 5% of total POC and mesozooplankton carbon concentrations were equivalent to 9% of total POC. Microzooplankton biomass was not assessed but POC:PON ratios in the water column were often high, suggesting there was sometimes a large detrital component in the POC. Primary production rates varied between 1.0 and 2.5 g C m⁻² day⁻¹. Bacterial consumption accounted for 50% of primary production. Metabolic rates suggested that copepods were ingesting more than 0.4 g C m⁻² day⁻¹. while filtration rates suggested that ingestion of phytoplankton carbon was only 0.2 g C m⁻²day⁻¹, even when phytoplankton constituted 85% of the POC. f-ratios (based on uptake rates for ¹⁵N-nitrate and ammonia) were between 0.1 and 0.4, and excretion by mesozooplankton could account for 40% of the daily ammonium uptake by phytoplankton. HPLC pigment analysis showed that when chlorophyll biomass was high, diatoms were dominant, whereas when it was low, small prymnesiophytes, chlorophytes and diatoms were all important. The composition of the fluoresecent pigments in material in the sediment traps indicated that intact phytoplankton and copepod faecal pellets were the main sources but the relative rates of sedimentation of pigment, POC and PON for the two trapping periods did not reflect differences that were observed in the overlying water column. This was likely to be the result of spatial heterogeneity and strong horizontal currents heterogeneity and strong horizontal currents within the euphotic zone. Thus, material collected at 100 m probably did not originate in the water column immediately overlying the traps and trapping efficiencies might also have been variable.     

Comparison of carbon cycle between the western Pacific subarctic and subtropical time-series stations: highlights of the K2S1 project

A comparative study of ecosystems and biogeochemistry at time-series stations in the subarctic gyre (K2) and subtropical region (S1) of the western North Pacific Ocean (K2S1 project) was conducted between 2010 and 2013 to collect essential data about the ecosystem and biological pump in each area and to provide a baseline of information for predicting changes in biologically mediated material cycles in the future. From seasonal chemical and biological observations, general oceanographic settings were verified and annual carbon budgets at both stations were determined. Annual mean of phytoplankton biomass and primary productivity at the oligotrophic station S1 were comparable to that at the eutrophic station K2. Based on chemical/physical observations and numerical simulations, the likely “missing nutrient source” was suggested to include regeneration, meso-scale eddy driven upwelling, meteorological events, and eolian inputs in addition to winter vertical mixing. Time-series observation of carbonate chemistry revealed that ocean acidification (OA) was ongoing at both stations, and that the rate of OA was faster at S1 than at K2 although OA at K2 is more critical for calcifying organisms.     

Growth and grazing rate dynamics of major phytoplankton groups in an oligotrophic coastal site

There has been more attention to phytoplankton dynamics in nutrient-rich waters than in oligotrophic ones thus requiring the need to study the dynamics and responses in oligotrophic waters. Accordingly, phytoplankton community in Blanes Bay was overall dominated by Prymnesiophyceae, remarkably constant throughout the year (31 ± 13% Total chlorophyll a, Tchl a) and Bacillariophyta with a more episodic appearance (20 ± 23% Tchl a). Prasinophyceae and Synechococcus contribution became substantial in winter (Prasinophyceae = 30% Tchl a) and summer (Synechococcus = 35% Tchl a). Phytoplankton growth and grazing mortality rates for major groups were estimated by dilution experiments in combination with high pressure liquid chromatography and flow cytometry carried out monthly over two years. Growth rates of total phytoplankton (range = 0.30–1.91 d⁻¹) were significantly higher in spring and summer (μ > 1.3 d⁻¹) than in autumn and winter (μ ∼ 0.65 d⁻¹) and showed a weak dependence on temperature but a significant positive correlation with day length. Microzooplankton grazing (range = 0.03–1.4 d⁻¹) was closely coupled to phytoplankton growth. Grazing represented the main process for loss of phytoplankton, removing 60 ± 34% (±SD) of daily primary production and 70 ± 48% of Tchl a stock. Chla synthesis was highest during the Bacillarophyceae-dominated spring bloom (Chl a_synt = 2.3 ± 1.6 μg Chl a L⁻¹ d⁻¹) and lowest during the following post-bloom conditions dominated by Prymnesiophyceae (Chl a_synt = 0.23 ± 0.08 μg Chl a L⁻¹ d⁻¹). This variability was smoothed when expressed in carbon equivalents mainly due to the opposite dynamics of C:chl a (range = 11–135) and chl a concentration (range = 0.07–2.0 μg chl a L⁻¹). Bacillariophyta and Synechococcus contribution to C fluxes was higher than to biomass because of their fast-growth rate. The opposite was true for Prymnesiophyceae.     

赤道东太平洋和印度洋-南海暖池海温场的协同作用对西太平洋副热带高压的影响

本文应用Hadley Center提供的全球最新海表温度资料,分析探讨了赤道太平洋和印度洋-南海(简称印-南)暖池区域海表面温度异常(SSTA)与西太平洋副热带高压(简称副高)变化的关系,结果表明,赤道东太平洋SSTA和印-南暖池区域SSTA对副高的影响存在明显的时空分布差异,它们二者对副高变化存在协同作用的影响。前者对副高的影响始于超前一年的春季,持续到当年的春季。后者则始于前冬,持续到当年的夏季。赤道东太平洋SSTA对副高的影响主要通过对经向环流影响所致,印-南暖池区域SSTA对副高影响的主要途径是通过经向环流和水汽输送,前者主要体现在对对流层中低层经向Hadley环流的影响,而后者主要体现在对对流层低层经向季风环流及其伴随的水汽输送的影响,它们二者对副高的影响机理存在不同。作者提出了赤道东太平洋和印-南暖池区域SSTA对副高存在协同影响作用,并通过最优子集回归分析,建立了副高异常变化的预测模型,对2015年5-8月副高强度进行了预测,其结果是5-8月的副高强度较常年偏强,扣除超强台风的影响,预测结果正确,由此可以认为,本文建立的预测模型是可靠的。这一工作的特点是强调了赤道东太平洋和印-南暖池的协同作用对副高持续性的影响,为副高异常变化及其降水的预测提供更为可靠的依据。