Perspectives in Modelling Climate–Hydrology Interactions

Various land–atmosphere coupling mechanisms exist that may lead to large-scale impacts on climate and hydrology. Some of them are still less understood and not adequately represented in state-of-the-art climate modelling. But, as the current generation of climate models enables consideration and implementation of important coupling processes, the present study provides perspectives for the modelling of relevant climate–hydrology interactions. On a more short-term perspective, these comprise anthropogenic land use and especially irrigation, which has been shown that it may even affect remote regions. On a long-term perspective, the coupling of hydrology to carbon cycle and vegetation becomes important, specifically the dynamics of permafrost and wetlands. Here, we present a review of current knowledge combined with some exemplary studies from a large-scale point of view. Therefore, we focus on climate–hydrology interactions that are relevant on scales utilized in the current or forthcoming global and regional climate modelling exercises.     

Climate change regionalization in China(1961–2010)

Since climatic condition is the important foundation for human subsistence and development and the key factor in sustainable development of economy and society, climate change has been a global issue attracting great attentions of politicians, scientists, governments, and the public alike throughout the world. Existing climate regionalization in China aims to characterize the regional differences in climate based on years of the mean value of different climate indexes. However, with the accelerating climate change nowadays, existing climate regionalization cannot represent the regional difference of climate change, nor can it reflect the disasters and environmental risks incurred from climate changes. This paper utilizes the tendency value and fluctuation value of temperature and precipitation from 1961 to 2010 to identify the climate change quantitatively, and completes the climate change regionalization in China(1961–2010) with county administrative regionalization as the unit in combination with China's terrain feature. Level-I regionalization divides China's climate change(1961–2010) into five tendency zones based on the tendency of temperature and precipitation, which are respectively Northeast China-North China warm-dry trend zone, East China-Central China wet-warm trend zone, Southwest China-South China dry-warm trend zone, Southeast Tibet-Southwest China wet-warm trend zone, and Northwest China-Qinghai-Tibet Plateau warm-wet trend zone; level-II regionalization refers to fourteen fluctuation regions based on level-I regionalization according to the fluctuation of temperature and precipitation.     

Response of a Coupled Ocean�CAtmosphere Model to Greenland Ice Melting

We investigate the transient response of the global coupled ocean?Catmosphere system to enhanced freshwater forcing representative of melting of the Greenland ice sheets. A 50-year long simulation by a coupled atmosphere?Cocean general circulation model (CGCM) is compared with another of the same length in which Greenland melting is prescribed. To highlight the importance of coupled atmosphere?Cocean processes, the CGCM results are compared with those of two other experiments carried out with the oceanic general circulation model (OGCM). In one of these OGCM experiments, the prescribed surface fluxes of heat, momentum and freshwater correspond to the unperturbed simulation by the CGCM; in the other experiment, Greenland melting is added to the freshwater flux. The responses by the CGCM and OGCM to the Greenland melting have similar patterns in the Atlantic, albeit the former having five times larger amplitudes in sea surface height anomalies. The CGCM shows likewise stronger variability in all state variables in all ocean basins because the impact of Greenland melting is quickly communicated to all ocean basins via atmospheric bridges. We conclude that the response of the global climate to Greenland ice melting is highly dependent on coupled atmosphere?Cocean processes. These lead to reduced latent heat flux into the atmosphere and an associated increase in net freshwater flux into the ocean, especially in the subpolar North Atlantic. The combined result is a stronger response of the coupled system to Greenland ice sheet melting.     

Climate induced changes of Lithuanian rivers runoff in 1960–2009

The primary objective of this study was the evaluation of runoff regime changes over the last 50 years in Lithuanian rivers. These changes were compared with the Neman river runoff regime changes in 1812–2009. On the basis of daily water discharge data, trends in the annual, maximum and minimum runoff characteristics as well as changes in the seasonal pattern of runoff were estimated. Regression analysis and the Mann-Kendall test were used to determine changes in the long-term hydrological regime. The magnitude of changes was estimated using Theil-Sen estimator. 1960–2009 runoff changes in Lithuanian rivers can be related to climatic changes. Sharp increases of January and February runoff during 1960–2009 were the largest changes throughout the observation period 1812–2009. The rate off runoff decrease in April was also among the largest decreases recorded. Spring flood and cold season minimum flow dates have become earlier than used to be.     

Preface to the Special Issue on Thunderstorm Effects in the Atmosphere–Ionosphere System

The first summer school of the “Thunderstorm Effects in the Atmosphere–Ionosphere System” (TEA–IS) funded by the European Science Foundation through its Research Network Programme took place in Torremolinos (Spain) on June 17–22, 2012. The meeting gathered almost 100 scientists with different backgrounds (plasma physics, electrical and signal engineering, geophysics, space physics and computational science) coming from 20 countries, both from inside and outside TEA–IS member countries. We very briefly comment here on the five review papers included in this Special Issue of Surveys in Geophysics devoted to the 2012 TEA–IS summer school.     

Dynamics of the Annual Variation in the Climate Variables of the Earth’s Atmosphere and Their Relation to Solar Activity

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - In this article, the dynamics of the annual variation in the mean monthly values of temperature and precipitation is studied via the expansion of series into natural...     

Climate and hydrological changes in the Ob River Basin during 1936–2017

Changes in the hydrological regimes of Arctic rivers could affect the thermohaline circulation of the Arctic Ocean. In this study, we analysed spatiotemporal variations in temperature and precipitation in the Ob River Basin regions during 1936–2017 based on data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Center. Changes in discharge and response to climate change were examined based on monthly observed data during the same period. It is indicated the Ob River Basin experienced significant overall rapid warming and wetting (increased precipitation) in the study period, with average rates of 0.20°C (10 year⁻¹) and 5.3 mm (10 year⁻¹), respectively. The annual spatial variations of temperature and precipitation showed different scales in different regions. The discharge in spring and winter significantly increased at a rate of 384.1 and 173.1 m³/s (10 year⁻¹), respectively. Hydrograph separation indicated infiltration and supported that deep flow paths increased the contribution of groundwater to base flow. Meanwhile, the variation of the ratio of Q_max/Q_min suggested that the basin storage and the mechanism of discharge generation have significantly changed. The hydrological processes were influenced by changes of permafrost in a certain in the Ob River Basin. An increase in the recession coefficient (RC) implies that the permafrost degradation in the basin due to climate warming affected hydrological processes in winter. Permafrost degradation affected the Q_max/Q_min more significantly in the warm season than RC due to the enhanced infiltration that converted more surface water into groundwater in the cold season. The impact of precipitation on discharge, including surface flow and base flow, was more significant than temperature at the annual and seasonal scales in the Ob River Basin. The base flow was more obviously influenced by temperature than surface flow. The results of this study are significant for analyses of the basin water budget and freshwater input to the Arctic Ocean.     

Coupled silicon–oxygen isotope fractionation traces Archaean silicification

Silica alteration zones and cherts are a conspicuous feature of Archaean greenstone belts worldwide and provide evidence of extensive mobilisation of silica in the marine environment of the early Earth. In order to understand the process(es) of silicification we measured the silicon and oxygen isotope composition of sections of variably silicified basalts and overlying bedded cherts from the Theespruit, Hooggenoeg and Kromberg Formations of the Barberton Greenstone Belt, South Africa.The δ³⁰Si and δ¹⁸O values of bulk rock increase with increasing amount of silicification from unsilicified basalts (?0.64‰ < δ³⁰Si < ?0.01‰ and + 8.6‰ < δ¹⁸O < + 11.9‰) to silicified basalts (δ³⁰Si and δ¹⁸O values as high as + 0.81‰ and + 15.6‰, respectively). Cherts generally have positive isotope ratios (+ 0.21‰ < δ³⁰Si < + 1.05‰ and + 10.9 < δ¹⁸O < + 17.1), except two cherts, which have negative δ³⁰Si values, but high δ¹⁸O (up to + 19.5‰).The pronounced positive correlations between δ³⁰Si, δ¹⁸O and SiO₂ imply that the isotope variation is driven by the silicification process which coevally introduced both ¹⁸O and ³⁰Si into the basalts. The oxygen isotope variation in the basalts from about 8.6‰ to 15.6‰ is likely to represent temperature-dependent isotope fractionation during alteration. Our proposed model for the observed silicon isotope variation relies on a temperature-controlled basalt dissolution vs. silica deposition process.     

60-Year Cycle in the Earth’s Climate and Dynamics of Correlation Links between Solar Activity and Circulation of the Lower Atmosphere

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - Possible causes of the ~60-year periodicity observed in climatic characteristics and the evolution of long-term correlation links between the circulation of the lower...     

Interannual variability of the air–sea CO2 flux in the north Indian Ocean

A simple biogeochemical model coupled to an offline ocean tracer transport model driven by reanalysis ocean data is used to simulate the seasonal and interannual CO $_2$ flux variability in the northern Indian Ocean. The maximum of seasonal and interannual CO $_2$ emission variances in the northern Indian Ocean are located in the coastal Arabian Sea (AS) and Southern Peninsular India (SP) with a basin-wide seasonal amplitude and standard deviation of 0.044 $\pm $ 0.04 Pg C year $^{-1}$ . The area integrated CO $_2$ emissions from these two regions in the model are significantly correlated (above a 95 % level) with the observations of Takahashi et al. (Deep-Sea Res-II, 56:554–577, 2009). The interannual anomalies of CO $_2$ emission from the AS and SP are found as 40 and 30 % of their respective seasonal amplitudes. Both the Arabian Sea (AS) and Southern Peninsular India (SP) interannual CO $_2$ emission anomalies show a 3–4-year variability. The correlations of AS and SP CO $_2$ emission anomalies with the Indian Ocean Dipole/Zonal Mode (IODZM) and Southern Oscillation (SO) indices from 1980 to 1999 are 0.35, 0.21 and 0.32, 0.01 respectively. A 5-year window moving correlation analysis shows that the relationship of AS and SP CO $_2$ emission to the SO and IODZM are complementary to each other. During the years when the correlation of air–sea CO $_2$ emission with the IODZM is stronger, the corresponding correlation with the SO is weaker or opposite. The total change in pCO $_2$ is broken down into changes induced by the individual components such as dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), sea surface temperature (SST), alkalinity, and salinity and found that (1) the effect of SST in the AS CO $_2$ emission increases (decreases) when the correlation of CO $_2$ emission with the IODZM is positive (negative), and (2) the SP CO $_2$ emission is strongly controlled by the circulation-driven DIC changes; however, this relation is found to be weaker when the SO correlates negatively with the SP CO $_2$ emission.     

Scenario Forecasting of Changes in Water Balance Components in the Ob–Irtysh Basin in the Context of Possible Climate Change

Water Resources - Four global climate scenarios of the family “Special Report on Emissions Scenarios” of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which correspond to the specified...     

The 27-day solar rotational cycle in the Freie Universität Berlin Climate Middle Atmosphere Model with interactive chemistry (FUB CMAM CHEM)

We simulate twenty, perpetual Januaries each under solar minimum and maximum conditions using the Freie Universität Berlin Climate Middle Atmosphere Model with interactive chemistry (FUB CMAM CHEM), including the 27-day solar rotational cycle. Cross-correlation functions (r) of tropical ozone and ultraviolet (UV) suggest peak values of +0.5 to +0.6 (with % changes in ozone of 0.4–0.6%) in the middle atmosphere. Temperature in the middle atmosphere varies with UV by up to 0.5 K, which appears to be mainly dynamical in origin. We calculate a signal associated with the rotational cycle in the troposphere, although this requires further investigations.     

Luminescence of Lyman–Birge–Hopfield Bands of N2 in the Earth’s Atmosphere during the Precipitation of High-Energy Electrons

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - The luminescence intensity profiles of Lyman–Birge–Hopfield bands of molecular nitrogen have been calculated for the precipitation into the Earth’s...     

60-Year Cycle in the Earth’s Climate and Dynamics of Correlation Links between Solar Activity and Circulation of the Lower Atmosphere: New Data

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - In this work we continue studying possible reasons for a roughly 60-year periodicity in the evolution of correlation links between pressure in the lower atmosphere and...