华北东部地区干旱分布特征

用１９５１－１９９０年降水怛资料，计算了我国华北东部地区的Ｚ指数级别值，并分析该地区内干旱发生的气候规律。结果表明，该区干旱发生频繁且严重，有明显的季节和持续性特点，年代际变化大体上有２０年振荡周期。     

2008/2009年秋冬季我国东部严重干旱分析

2008/2009年秋冬季我国12省区出现30～50年一遇的罕见干旱,这次我国大范围严重干旱是较长时期降水稀少所造成的.欧亚中高纬度存在稳定的准静止环流系统是造成这次干旱灾害的主要成因.东亚大槽维持在日本东北部,高原上空为稳定的高压脊,中国大陆长时期处于东亚大槽槽后西北气流控制下;从亚洲西部过来的扰动系统不易东移到东亚上空;此外,北非、印度次大陆、中南半岛和中国大部冬季风异常盛行,来自海洋上的水汽不易到达这些地区.欧亚大陆稳定长达3个月的异常环流的形成机制,有待深入研究.     

SST-induced climate change in tropical North Africa: The intermediary role of lower tropospheric oscillations

Summary  The growth rates of amplifying mid-tropospheric perturbations in tropical North Africa is known to reduce with increased vertical shear in the troposphere. This phenomenon leads to a reduction in the frequency of generation of squall lines – the main rain-producing mechanism in tropical North Africa – because squalls are initiated by amplifying modes of African Easterly Waves (AEW). Ultimately, therefore, tropical North Africa experiences a shortfall, with respect to long-term averages, in annual rainfall. Weakening of AEW intensity is shown to be linked with the warming up to the sea-surface temperatures (SST) of the South Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans. These findings are consistent with the observed reduction in the incidence of intense hurricanes along the entire westem Atlantic in Sahelian dry years. It is shown that the frequency of occurrence of Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes is unaffected by the dryness or otherwise in the Sahel, but the paths of the storms are determined by the zonal exit point, from the African continental land mass to the Atlantic, of West African disturbance lines. These results have applications, and implications, in the level of preparedness for the economic impacts of Atlantic storms and hurricanes. Received June 8, 1996 Revised June 8, 2000     

2002年粤东地区秋冬春夏连旱的气候分析

2002年广东省东部地区遭遇历史罕见的秋冬春夏连旱，是该区域有气象记录以来最为严重的一次旱灾。气候分析认为，当年冬春季冷空气偏弱，副热带高压偏强是本次干旱的主要成因，也与该区近十几年来春季进入相对少雨期可能存在着一定的联系。     

干旱的定量化:干旱指数的评价

讨论气象、农业和水文干旱强度的各种客观定量指数。依照6个权重评价标准(普适性、实用性、易理解性、理论性、时效性和无量纲性),对每一种干旱形式的指数进行了评价。计算了俄勒冈州两个气候区24个水年(1976～1999)的一些最优的干旱指数。研究结果认为,描述气象干旱、水文干旱和农业干旱最有价值的指数分别是降水成数、总缺水量和计算土壤水分。     

Drought modes in West Africa and how well CORDEX RCMs simulate them

This study presents the spatial-temporal structure of droughts in West Africa and evaluates the capability of CORDEX regional climate models in simulating the droughts. The study characterize droughts with the standardized evapo-transpiration index (SPEI) computed using the monthly rainfall and temperature data from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and CORDEX models simulation datasets. To obtain the spatial-temporal structure of the droughts, we applied the principal component analysis on the observed and simulated SPEIs and retained the first four principal factors as the leading drought modes over West Africa. The relationship between the drought modes and atmospheric teleconnections was studied using wavelet coherence analysis, while the ability of the CORDEX models to simulate the drought modes was quantified with correlation analysis. The analysis of the relationship between drought modes and atmospheric teleconnections is based on SPEI from observation dataset (CRU). The study shows that about 60 % of spatial-temporal variability in SPEI over West Africa can be grouped into four drought modes. The first drought mode features drought over east Sahel, the second over west Sahel, the third over the Savanna, and the fourth over the Guinea coast. Each drought mode is linked to sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over tropical areas of Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans. Most CORDEX models reproduce at least two of the drought modes, but only two models (REMO and CNRM) reproduce all the four drought modes. REMO and WRF give the best simulation of the seasonal variation of the drought mode over the Sahel in March-May and June-August seasons, while CNRM gives the best simulation of seasonal variation in the drought pattern over the Savanna. Results of this study may guide in selecting appropriate CORDEX models for seasonal prediction of droughts and for downscaling projected impacts of global warming on droughts in West Africa.     

川东盛夏伏旱非绝热热流量场特征

本文分析了川东伏旱与大气非绝热热流量的关系，结果表明：与四川“西涝东旱”气候特征相关的川东伏旱与北半球大范围非绝热热流量异常相联系。夏季月平均非绝热热流量距平场，亚欧范围内差异显著。重旱年极地维持1波，无旱年维持２波，90—120°E、20—40°N关键区，重旱年北正南负、东正西负；轻旱年东正西负；无旱年北负南正、东负西正。川东重旱年、轻旱年为负距平区，无旱年为正距平区。并且，青藏高原加热作用，通过影响东亚大气环流系统而对川东伏旱形成有重要影响。最后，提出了根据冬-夏地气遥相关事实，应用参数化方法，建立川     

Malnutrition and conflict in East Africa: the impacts of resource variability on human security

Changes in climate, along with anthropogenic pressures, impact vegetation productivity and related ecosystem services on which human security relies. The impacts of these climate changes on society will be experienced both through changes in mean conditions over long time periods and through increases in extreme events. Uncertainties remain on how short-term changes in ecosystems influence human security. Most studies analyzing the relationship between human security and climate are at the country level, ignoring fine-grained spatial heterogeneity in local climatic and socio-economic conditions. Here, we used detailed spatio-temporal information extracted from wide-swath satellite data (MODIS) to examine the impact of interannual variability in ecosystems on malnutrition and armed conflict in East Africa while controlling for other natural and socio-economic factors. The analysis was performed at a subnational and village scales. At the regional level, ecosystem variability was associated with malnutrition. This relationship was not statistically significant at the village level. At both levels of analysis, our results indicated that armed conflicts were more likely in regions with more vegetation. Results suggested that, in East Africa, increased levels of malnutrition were related to armed conflicts. They also showed the importance, in low-income countries, of local economic activity and accessibility to reduce the likelihood of malnutrition and insecurity.     

Drought in the Eastern Cape region of South Africa and trends in rainfall characteristics

Much of the Eastern Cape province in South Africa has been experiencing a severe drought since 2015. This drought has had major socio-economic effects particularly on the large impoverished rural population as well as on some urban areas where supplied water services have broken down in several cases. The region is influenced by both midlatitude and tropical systems leading to a complex regional meteorology that hitherto has not been much studied compared to other parts of South Africa. Here, the ongoing drought is examined in the context of long-term trends and the interannual rainfall variability of the region. Although the region has experienced drought in all seasons since 2015, focus here is placed on the spring (September–November) which shows the most consistent and robust signal. On average, this season contributes between about 25–35% of the annual rainfall total. Based on CHIRPS data, it is found that this season shows a significant decreasing trend in both rainfall totals as well as the number of rainfall days (but not heavy rainfall days) for spring over most of the province since 1981. On interannual time scales, the results indicate that dry (wet) springs over the Eastern Cape are associated with a cyclonic (anticyclonic) anomaly southeast of South Africa as part of a shift in the zonal wavenumber 3 pattern in the midlatitudes. Over the landmass, a stronger (weaker) Botswana High is also apparent with increased (decreased) subsidence over and near the Eastern Cape which is less (more) favourable for cloud band development and hence reduced (enhanced) rainfall during dry (wet) springs. Analysis of mid-century (2040–2060) CMIP5 rainfall projections suggests that there may be a flattening of the annual cycle over the Eastern Cape with the winter becoming wetter and the summer drier. For the spring season of interest here, the multi-model projections also indicate drying but less pronounced than that projected for the summer.

     

甘肃省河东地区伏旱的小波分析

该文阐述了小波变换的基本思路和优点,并对甘肃省河东地区1951～1995年伏期干旱强度指数分别用墨西哥帽型小波和Haar型小波进行了分析。结果表明：甘肃省河东地区的伏旱由不同尺度的振荡构成,中部地区的伏旱准19年的振荡周期较明显,有2个上升和2个下降阶段;陇东和陇南地区准22年和准10年的振荡周期较明显,有1个上升和2个下降阶段。对原时间序列进行了不同尺度的重构,说明小波分析可以用于滤波。     

Shifts in IOD and their impacts on association with East Africa rainfall

The decadal shift in the relationship between the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the East African rainfall is investigated using historical observational data. The climate system for equatorial East Africa (EEA) during the October to December (OND) ‘short rains’ season is characterised by spatiotemporal variations of the equatorial East African rainfall (EEAR). Therefore, the EEAR index is derived from the first principal component of the empirical orthogonal function analysis (EOF) of the EEA’s rainfall domain. The IOD, which has been linked with the EEAR in the previous studies, is the main climate mode controlling the tropical Indian Ocean during the OND period. It is usually represented by a dipole mode index based on the zonal gradient of SST anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean. Therefore the climate modes, IOD and EEAR, are assumed to form a two-node network of subsystems which primarily control the climate of equatorial East Africa during the OND period. The collective behaviour of these climate modes is investigated through the examination of their representative indices for the period 1901 to 2009 using simple statistical techniques. The results suggest that the interaction between these two climate modes, which comprise the network, is not predominantly linear as previously assumed, but is characterised by shifts which are determined by the coupling and synchronisation processes of the tropical systems. In cases where synchronisation is preceded by an abrupt increase in coupling strength between the two subsystems, the established synchronous state is destroyed and a new climate state emerges such as in the years 1961 and 1997. This alteration in the regional climate is accompanied by notable changes in the regional rainfall and IOD variations. But in those events where synchronisation is followed by a sudden loss in coupling strength, the climate state is not disturbed and no shift in the climate of equatorial East Africa is noticed as in 1918. This climate shift mechanism appears to be consistent with the theory of synchronised chaos and is useful for long range predictions of the East African short rains.     

Spatial variation of crop yield response to climate change in East Africa

There is general consensus that the impacts of climate change on agriculture will add significantly to the development challenges of ensuring food security and reducing poverty, particularly in Africa. While these changes will influence agriculture at a broad scale, regional or country-level assessments can miss critical detail. We use high-resolution methods to generate characteristic daily weather data for a combination of different future emission scenarios and climate models to drive detailed simulation models of the maize and bean crops. For the East African region, there is considerable spatial and temporal variation in this crop response. We evaluate the response of maize and beans to a changing climate, as a prelude to detailed targeting of options that can help smallholder households adapt. The results argue strongly against the idea of large, spatially contiguous development domains for identifying and implementing adaptation options, particularly in regions with large variations in topography and current average temperatures. Rather, they underline the importance of localised, community-based efforts to increase local adaptive capacity, take advantage of changes that may lead to increased crop and livestock productivity where this is possible, and to buffer the situations where increased stresses are likely.     

美国国家级干旱监测业务产品介绍

美国需要改进干旱监测与评估方法。干旱是代价昂贵的自然灾害(联邦应急管理局(FEMA),1995;W ilhite,2000),但经常被评估和预报产品的开发者忽略。相比于其他灾害,干旱表现得更模糊并且不适合用传统的评估或预报方法,它相对缓慢的发生以及其影响的复杂性,需要有一套新的方法来对它进行评估。干旱监测和预报技术的提高会使我们为应对干旱灾害做更好的准备工作,进行更好的应对实践,从而减少社会对干旱及其影响的脆弱性。为追踪和展示全美国干旱的程度、空间范围以及其影响,开发了新的干旱监测工具,研发了每周发布的国家级干旱监测业务产品(th…     

Leading Pattern of Spring Drought Variability over East Asia and Associated Drivers

Drought events have become more frequent and intense over East Asia in recent decades, leading to hugesocioeconomic impacts. Although the droughts have been studied extensively by cases or for individual regions, theirleading variability and associated causes remain unclear. Based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI) and ERA5 reanalysis product from 1979 to 2020, this study evealuates the severity of spring droughts in East Asiaand investigates their variations and associated drivers. The results indicate that North China and Mongolia have ex perienced remarkable trends toward dryness during spring in recent decades, while southwestern China has witnessed anopposite trend toward wetness. The first Empirical Orthogonal Function mode of SPEI variability reveals a similarseesawing pattern, with more severe dryness in northwestern China, Mongolia, North China, South Korea, and Japan butincreased wetness in Southwestern China and southeast Asia. Further investigation reveals that the anomalously dry (wet)surface in North (Southwestern) China is significantly associated with anomalously high (low) temperature, less (more)precipitation, and reduced (increased) soil moisture during the previous winter and early spring, regulated by an anomalousanticyclone (cyclone) and thus reduced (increased) water vapor convergence. The spring dry-wet pattern in East Asia isalso linked to cold sea surface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern Pacific. The findings of this study haveimportant implications for improving the prediction of spring drought events in East Asia.     

The role of culture and traditional knowledge in climate change adaptation: Insights from East Kimberley,Australia

Indigenous peoples offer alternative knowledge about climate variability and change based on their own locally developed knowledges and practices of resource use. In this article we discuss the role of traditional ecological knowledge in monitoring and adapting to changing environmental conditions. Our case study documents a project to record the seasonal knowledge of the Miriwoong people in northern Australia. The study demonstrates how indigenous groups’ accumulate detailed baseline information about their environment to guide their resource use and management, and develop worldviews and cultural values associated with this knowledge. We highlight how traditional ecological knowledge plays a critical role in mediating indigenous individuals and communities’ understandings of environmental changes in the East Kimberley region of north-west Australia, and how these beliefs may influence future decision-making about how to go about adapting to climate change at a local level.