中国亚热带地区柑桔气候风险评估

综合考虑柑桔气候适宜性水平及其变率变化,构建柑桔的风险度模型,运用滑动建模技术对中国亚热带地区柑桔的气候风险性进行动态分析与评估。根据风险分布强度将中国亚热带地区柑桔温度、降水、日照和气候风险大致分为三类型:低风险型、中风险型和高风险型。温度风险度大致呈纬度地带性分布,除西部高山区外,由低纬向高纬风险度依次增高;降水风险度呈现亚热带中部低,北部和西部高;与降水风险度相反,日照风险度在亚热带中部高,北部和西部低;气候风险度受温度变化的主导,也大致呈现纬度地带性,呈现高纬和西部高海拔区高,低纬和东部沿海区低。柑桔气候风险在时间和空间变化上都存在着差异,近46年来,中国亚热带地区柑桔气候风险度有逐渐增加的趋势,尤其以20世纪80年代初以来增加的最快;由于全球气候变暖的影响,亚热带东部和南部风险较低的区域分布有逐渐减少的趋势,而北部和西部风险高的区域分布有进一步增大并向东部和南部扩展的可能。从中国亚热带地区柑桔减产率大于10%、20%、30%的气候风险度分布区域变动过程来看,柑桔各减产率的气候风险度分布具有很明显的区域性和连续性,大体上由东南向西北呈增高趋势。     

秦巴山地植物南北变化与过渡模式研究

秦岭—大巴山是中国重要的南北地理分界线和生态过渡带,建立秦巴山地南北方向上植物种类组成及重要值的详细变化序列和过渡模式,对于深入认识中国南北过渡带的过渡性、复杂性及暖温带与亚热带分界线具有十分重要的科学意义。本文通过野外实地调查获取秦巴山地东、中、西部3条南北穿越样线163个采样点的植被序列数据,分析了物种丰富度、相对重要值及优势种多度的纬向变化,并将亚热带与温带物种相对重要值的差值（SND-RIV）用于表现南北方物种的优势程度,以分析和归纳植物的空间变化模式。结果表明：① 东部（三门峡—宜昌）、中部（西安—达州）、西部（天水—广元）亚热带物种丰富度及相对重要值自北向南递增,温带物种自北向南递减。东部温带物种丰富度及相对重要值在神农架和伏牛山由于海拔高度的影响出现两个峰值,中部亚热带物种在大巴山地区最高,西部亚热带物种在陇南以南超过温带物种;② 东部南北方物种的交错过渡带最宽,约180 km;中部大约在秦岭南坡至大巴山北坡之间,约100 km;西部交错过渡带偏南,约50~60 km。③ 东、中、西部山地植物纬向过渡模式和驱动因子有明显差异。东、西部自南向北亚热带物种的减少主要与年均降水量减少有关,年平均气温影响较小;中部年平均气温的作用比湿润指数稍大。本文揭示了秦巴山地东、中、西部植物的南北变化及过渡模式,提升了对中国南北过渡带复杂性和多样性的科学认识。     

淮河流域单季稻气候风险研究

综合考虑单季稻气候适宜性水平及其变率变化,构建单季稻的风险度模型,运用滑动建模技术对淮河流域单季稻的气候风险性进行了动态分析与评估。根据风险分布将淮河流域单季稻温度、降水、日照和气候风险大致分为三种类型:低风险型、中风险型和高风险型;在时间变化上,近几十年来,淮河流域单季稻气候风险度有逐渐增加的趋势;并随着时间的推移,在空间上东部风险较低的区域有逐渐降低的趋势,而西部气候风险高的地区有进一步增大并向东部沿海扩展的趋势。     

河南城镇体系布局研究

河南省位于黄河中下游地区,华北大平原南部,是我国东西往来,南北交通的必经之地,是东部发达地区与西部落后地区的过渡地带。河南今后将在全国战略重点由沿海向内地转移和区域经济开发中处于重要地位。因此,研究河南城镇体系布局具有现实意义。 一、河南城镇体系的形成演变 河南是中华民族的发祥地之一,早在夏商时期就产生了城镇,但在战国以前,城镇发展极为缓慢,所谓的城镇只是少数的奴隶主贵族的政治中心和军事据点。     

东北地区植被过渡带生态气候学研究

温度和水分是决定植被分布重要的能量和物质基础，其长时间尺工的变化和短时间尺度的波动是植被过渡带形成和分布的主要原因。从生态气候保证率出发，以桑斯威特（C．W．Thonthwaite）温度效率指数（PE）的90％保证率为过渡带上边界和10％保证率为过渡带下边界，定量地划分了东北地区向南北因温度差异形成的森林植被过渡带；以湿润指数（Im)和80％保证率为过渡带上边界和20％保证率为过渡带下边界，定量地划分了由东向西因水分差异产生的森林、草甸草原和典型草原间的过渡带。     

试从气候和人类活动看黄河问题

该文从气候和人类活动的角度出发，选取了人类历史时期的两个时间段（1949年以前和以后）；在第一阶段，从农牧业界线的变迁，黄河下游的河湖变迁，黄河曲率的变化，历史时期的气候和黄河在历史时期的决淤泛滥频率的对比与关系方面分析，得出黄河下游的决淤泛滥有两个最关键的因素，即人类活动叠架于气候的变迁之上，在第二阶段，黄河下游及河口三角洲延伸缓慢，主要原因应是气候的变化，所以黄河中游的生态建设切不可掉以轻心。     

论豫西黄土丘陵区的综合治理与开发

豫西黄土丘陵台地位于河南省西部,西邻陕西,北濒黄河,南与伏牛山区交错,东同黄淮平原接壤。包括三门峡、洛阳、郑州三市的大部和平顶山、许昌两市的部分地区,共计21个县、市。总土地面积约24733平方公里,总人口1128万人,分别占全省土地面积和总人口的14.8％和12.3％。区内耕地面积1392万亩,占全区土地总面积的40％,人均耕地1.23亩,同全省人均耕地数量相当。由于本区地处西部黄土高原与东部黄、淮、海平原的交接和过渡地带,在特定的环境条件下,当前已经成为河南     

气候变暖背景下中国干旱强度、频次和持续时间及其南北差异性

在全球气温日趋升高和极端降水增加的气候背景下,近年来中国干旱变化特征异常突出,新形势下需进一步深入认识干旱灾害影响机制。利用1960—2014年中国527个气象站逐日气温和降水量数据,选用改进的综合气象干旱指数（MCI）作为监测指标,详细分析了中国干旱强度、频次和持续时间变化特征及其南北差异性。结果表明：气候变暖背景下,中国干旱范围扩大、程度加剧、频次增加;干旱发生的范围发生了明显的转移,北方干旱加剧的同时,南方干旱明显加重,尤其是大旱范围明显增加。中国干旱范围主要在黄河流域以南和长江以北地区。干旱频次北方高于南方,东部高于西部,长江流域以北干旱频次较高。中国干旱持续时间较长,而且四季都有可能发生干旱。干旱不仅发生在干旱区和半干旱区,湿润和半湿润区域也常有干旱发生。不同年代、不同区域干旱发生的程度、持续时间和频次有一定的差异。中国20世纪90年代中后期至21世纪初期干旱范围最广、持续时间最长,造成的损失最严重。中国干旱强度、频次和持续时间南北差异性显著。气候变暖后,中国干旱强度加重、范围扩大、频次增加和持续时间增加明显。     

近50年来中国干湿气候界线的10年际波动

利用中国北方1951～1999年降水量和年蒸发量资料，计算了干燥度指数（D）。并据此将中国划分为干旱区（D（0.20）），半干旱区（0.20-0.50）和湿润区（D(0.50）），近50a中国干湿气候波动显著，区域差异大；50a波动幅度东北区为20～400km，华北区为40～400km，西北东部为30～350km，西南区为40～370km，以80年代为界，在20世纪80年代以前（包括80年代），西南区气候具有显著变湿趋势；西北东部稍变湿；华北区和东北区具有变干趋势，且华北区变干程度比东北区严重。进入90年代。西南区和西北东部气候有变干迹象。华北区西部气候的干旱程度有所增加，华北区东部有所减弱，东北区气候进一步变湿，半干旱区是湿润区与干旱区之间的过渡区，是中国季风的边缘地带，也是环境变化的敏感区，20世纪60～70年代中国（北方）干湿气候存在一次突变，由较湿润变为干旱。50年来干湿气候界线呈现出整体移动和东西、南北相异波动的特征，当干湿气候界线同时向西或向北移动时，中国北方气候就变得相对湿润；当同时向东或向南移动时，北方气候就变得相对干旱；当干湿气候界线东西、南北相异移动时，北方气候的干旱程度就介于二者之间。     

青藏高原东部龙羊峡水库气候效应的变化趋势分析

以青海省境内黄河干流龙羊峡水库为例,应用基于气象要素分析水库气候效应的数学模型,计算了水库蓄水后对局地气候的净影响,深入探讨了气候效应随时间的变化趋势。结果表明,龙羊峡水库蓄水以来,对局地气候有明显影响,环境风险度有较大提高,且水库对不同的气象要素的影响随蓄水时间的增加呈现不同趋势。     

作物气候风险研究:以河南省棉花为例

1 Introduction In the past 100 years the global temperature rose sharply due to the increase of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. The mean ground temperature rose by 0.5–0.6°C in the 20th century and 0.3–0.4°C in the last 20 years of the c…     

Changes of citrus climate risk in subtropics of China

Based on the citrus temperature, precipitation, sunlight and climate risk degree, the article divides subtropics of China into three types: the low risk region, the moderate risk region and the high risk region. The citrus temperature risk increases with increasing latitude (except for the western mountainous area of subtropics of China). The citrus precipitation risk in the central part of subtropics of China is higher than that in the northern and western parts. The distributions of citrus sunlight risk are not consistent to those of the citrus precipitation risk. The citrus climate risk is mainly influenced by temperature. There is latitudinal zonal law for the distribution of the climate risk, that is, the climate risk increases with increasing latitude. At the same time the climate risk in mountainous area is high and that in eastern plain area is low. There are differences in the temporal and spatial changes of the citrus climate. In recent 46 years, the citrus climate risk presents a gradual increasing trend in subtropics of China, especially it has been increasing fast since the 1980s. Because of the global warming, the low risk region in the eastern and southern parts has a gradual decreasing trend, however, the high risk region in the northern and western parts has an increasing trend and the high risk region has been extending eastward and southward. The article analyses the distribution of the citrus climate risk degree of reduction rates of >10%, >20% and >30% in subtropics of China, and studies their changes in different time periods. Results show that the risk is increasing from southeast to northwest.     

中国亚热带地区柑桔气候风险变化(英文)

Based on the citrus temperature, precipitation, sunlight and climate risk degree, the article divides subtropics of China into three types: the low risk region, the moderate risk region and the high risk region. The citrus temperature risk increases with increasing latitude (except for the western mountainous area of subtropics of China). The citrus precipitation risk in the central part of subtropics of China is higher than that in the northern and western parts. The distributions of citrus sunlight risk are not consistent to those of the citrus precipitation risk. The citrus climate risk is mainly influenced by temperature. There is latitudinal zonal law for the distribution of the climate risk, that is, the climate risk increases with increasing latitude. At the same time the climate risk in mountainous area is high and that in eastern plain area is low. There are differences in the temporal and spatial changes of the citrus climate. In recent 46 years, the citrus climate risk presents a gradual increasing trend in subtropics of China, especially it has been increasing fast since the 1980s. Because of the global warming, the low risk region in the eastern and southern parts has a gradual decreasing trend, however, the high risk region in the northern and western parts has an increasing trend and the high risk region has been extending eastward and southward. The article analyses the distribution of the citrus climate risk degree of reduction rates of >10%, >20% and >30% in subtropics of China, and studies their changes in different time periods. Results show that the risk is increasing from southeast to northwest.     

气候变暖背景下黄河流域干旱灾害风险空间特征

黄河流域是中国重要的经济带和经济增长极,也是人口密集暴露、特色农业种植和重点生态承载区。在全球变暖和极端降水事件频发的气候背景下,近年来黄河流域干旱灾害变化特征异常突出,新形势下该流域的干旱灾害风险及其对气候变化的响应机制需进一步深入认识。本文利用1960年以来黄河流域122个国家气象站逐日气象数据,结合遥感、社会统计和地理信息数据与技术,基于灾害风险理论,建立致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境脆弱性、承灾体易损性和防灾减灾能力可靠性4个因子的干旱灾害风险指标体系和模型,详细分析了黄河流域干旱灾害风险变化特征和区域差异性及其气候变化的影响机制。结果表明：黄河流域干旱灾害风险分布格局具有明显的地带性和复杂性,流域区域差异显著,总体是中下游风险高于上游,高风险区主要位于黄河流域中下游,致灾因子危险性是黄河流域干旱灾害风险的主导因子,其次是孕灾环境脆弱性和防灾减灾能力可靠性,而承灾体易损性贡献量相对最小。干旱灾害风险影响机制的区域差异也很显著,上游是孕灾环境脆弱性和防灾减灾能力可靠性的影响大于致灾因子和易损性,中游则是致灾因子、易损性和防灾减灾能力对干旱灾害风险的贡献度大,下游是干旱致灾因子起主导作用,致灾因子危险性和承灾体易损性控制了风险总体格局。黄河流域干旱灾害风险变化规律以及对气候变化的响应异常复杂,流域干旱灾害风险主要受季风气候和复杂地形的影响,还受社会经济发展水平、人口暴露度和水资源供需矛盾等多种要素的影响。该研究对黄河流域生态文明建设,粮食安全保障和国家发展战略具有重要意义。     

1971-2010年三江源地区干湿状况变化的空间特征

 依据1971-2010年地面观测气象数据,计算了三江源地区湿润指数。利用经验正交函数分解（EOF）和偏相关系数,对近40 a三江源地区干湿状况变化的时空特征及其影响因素进行了分析。结果表明:三江源地区干湿状况的变化在其北部与南部、东部与西部间存在明显反相位变化特征。北部和东部的部分区域分别在20世纪90年代和21世纪后表现出气候湿润化趋势,其余大部地区的持续干旱化趋势始于20世纪80年代初,其中南部与西部变干趋势显著,其湿润指数线性趋势率达到-8%/10 a。虽然三江源地区干湿状况主要决定于降水量和相对湿度的变化,但20世纪90年代中期后气温的显著上升,使得气温也成为关键的影响因子之一,即使在降水明显增加的背景下,也引起三江源主体区域湿润指数的明显下降。气候变暖情景下,北部和东部地区在近十几年暖湿化趋势明显,其余大部地区表现为不同程度的暖干化趋势。     

阿克苏河流域气候变化对潜在蒸散量影响评价(英文)

Evapotranspiration is one of the key components of hydrological processes. Assessing the impact of climate factors on evapotranspiration is helpful in understanding the impact of climate change on hydrological processes. In this paper, based on the daily meteorological data from 1960 to 2007 within and around the Aksu River Basin, reference evapotranspiration (RET) was estimated with the FAO Penman-Monteith method. The temporal and spatial variations of RET were analyzed by using ARCGIS and Mann-Kendall method. Multiple Regression Analysis was employed to attribute the effects of the variations of air temperature, solar radiation, relative humidity, vapour pressure and wind speed on RET. The results showed that average annual RET in the eastern plain area of the Aksu River Basin was about 1100 mm, which was nearly twice as much as that in the western mountainous area. The trend of annual RET had significant spatial variability. Annual RET was reduced significantly in the southeastern oasis area and southwestern plain area and increased slightly in the mountain areas. The amplitude of the change of RET reached the highest in summer, contributing most of the annual change of RET. Except in some high elevation areas where relative humidity predominated the change of the RET, the variations of wind velocity predominated the changes of RET almost throughout the basin. Taking Kuqa and Ulugqat stations as an example, the variations of wind velocity accounted for more than 50% of the changes of RET.     

全球气候变化影响下中国农业产量的可持续性

气候变化的区域影响愈益成为具有挑战性的问题,尤其是气候变化对农业产量可持续性的影响已引起广泛的关注。基于全示气候变化对中国的影响和区域气候变率分析,提出了粮食气候产量形成模型,半将其应用于黄淮海地区冬小麦小分条件和产量研究,同时对全球气候变化情形下冬小麦产量的变化做出评价。     

Eco-environment range in the source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers

Based on geographical and hydrological extents delimited, four principles are identified, as the bases for delineating the ranges of the source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers in the paper. According to the comprehensive analysis of topographical characteristics, climate conditions, vegetation distribution and hydrological features, the source region ranges for eco-environmental study are defined. The eastern boundary point is Dari hydrological station in the upper reach of the Yellow River. The watershed above Dari hydrological station is the source region of the Yellow River which drains an area of 4.49×104 km2. Natural environment is characterized by the major topographical types of plateau lakes and marshland, gentle landforms, alpine cold semi-arid climate, and steppe and meadow vegetation in the source region of the Yellow River. The eastern boundary point is the convergent site of the Nieqiaqu and the Tongtian River in the upstream of the Yangtze River. The watershed above the convergent site is the source region of the Yangtze River, with a watershed area of 12.24×104 km2. Hills and alpine plain topography, gentle terrain, alpine cold arid and semi-arid climate, and alpine cold grassland and meadow are natural conditions in the source region of the Yangtze River.     

Climate transformation to warm-humid and its effect on river runoff in the source region of the Yellow River

The change characteristics and trends of the regional climate in the source region of the Yellow River, and the response of runoff to climate change, are analyzed based on observational data of air temperature, precipitation, and runoff at 10 main hydrological and weather stations in the region. Our results show that a strong signal of climate shift from warm-dry to warm-humid in the western parts of northwestern China （Xinjiang） and the western Hexi Corridor of Gansu Province occurred in the late 1980s, and a same signal of climate change occurred in the mid-2000s in the source region of the Yellow River located in the eastern part of northwestern China. This climate changeover has led to a rapid increase in rainfall and stream runoff in the latter region. In most of the years since 2004 the average annual precipitation in the source region of the Yellow River has been greater than the long-term average annual value, and after 2007 the runoff measured at all of the hydrologic sections on the main channel of the Yellow River in the source region has also consistently exceeded the long-term average annual because of rainfall increase. It is difficult to determine the prospects of future climate change until additional observations and research are conducted on the rate and temporal and spatial extents of climate change in the region. Nevertheless, we predict that the climate shift from warm-dry to warm-humid in the source region of the Yellow River is very likely to be in the decadal time scale, which means a warming and rainy climate in the source region of the Yellow River will continue in the coming decades.