中国玛珥湖及其研究意义

随着全球变化研究的深入,科学家们认识到古气候变化除轨道尺度的冰期/间冰期旋回之外还存在年代际-千年尺度的高频变化和突变事件。要认知这些变化,古气候记录的时间分辨率要达到"年-年代际"。因此,寻求时间跨度长、连续性好、信息丰富的高分辨率记录是过去全球变化研究面临的主要任务之一。玛珥湖为火山射汽喷发形成的封闭湖泊,由于其独特的形成机制及水文背景,使其能够提供数万年乃至几十万年连续稳定的沉积记录,是高分辨率古气候、古环境变化研究的重要对象。中国玛珥湖得天独厚,从热带到寒温带均有分布,为系统研究中国不同气候区各种时间尺度古气候变化规律提供了理想材料。本文基于中国玛珥湖的分布及沉积特征,探讨玛珥湖沉积记录能够为古全球变化研究做出怎样的贡献,解决什么科学问题,具体包括以下三个方面的内容:(1)在轨道尺度上,精确定位现代气候在地质历史中的位置是未来最具挑战性的科学问题之一。我国热带地区玛珥湖沉积物跨越了至少4个冰期-间冰期旋回,能够为理解冰期驱动机制、下一次冰期来临、高低纬关联等关键科学问题提供多学科数据;(2)千年尺度古气候变化,其成因可能源于不同的动力学机制,是气候系统对各种外部和内部驱动因子响应的结果,因此千年震荡可能存在明显的时空差异。集成不同气候带的玛珥湖沉积记录将为理解千年震荡规律及其驱动因子做出贡献;(3)年-年代际气候变化是预测未来气候变化的基础,PAGES、IPCC以及PAGES-Asia 2K均将过去2千年来气候变化作为预测未来几十年至百年尺度上重大全球变化的背景,并为此构建全球数据体系,玛珥湖沉积特别是纹层沉积记录能够填补某些地区高分辨率数据的空白。     

Late Pleistocene lake and glaciation evolution on the northeastern Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau: a review

Late Pleistocene paleoclimatic history on northeastern Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP) has been reconstructed mainly from lake sediments; however, data regarding dry–wet climate changes reported in this region are still not clear and controversial. Based on shoreline features and highstand lacustrine sediments around lakes on the QTP, high lake level histories in this paper were summarized and compared with paleoclimatic records from lake sediments, ice core and glaciation evolution surrounding mountains on the NE QTP during late Pleistocene. The results indicate that periods of high lake level occurred at MIS 5, MIS 3 and early-middle Holocene and most likely corresponding to warm and wet climate periods, while periods of low lake level existed in intervening intervals, corresponding to cold and dry climate periods, which most likely coincide with glacial advances surrounding high mountains. With an exception, no wide glacial advance in study area was found during MIS 3, possibly suggesting that effective moisture is lower than that in the other region of NE QTP in this period.     

宁晋泊晚更新世以来气候变化的正构烷烃分子记录

华北地区晚更新世以来气候变化研究具有重要的意义.选择宁晋泊地区开展河湖相沉积物的分子化石研究.结果表明,沉积物中正构烷烃碳数分布范围为C₁₅~C₃₃,高碳数奇碳优势明显,多以C₂₉和C₃₁为主峰的单峰分布,少量样品出现以C₁₇为次主峰的双峰分布,表明有机质以陆生植物和大型水生植物为主.结合正构烷烃参数,分析了宁晋泊地区晚更新世以来的气候演变过程,展现了"83~68 ka气候较为温和,湖泊水位较低;68~30 ka气候暖湿,湖泊扩张;30~22 ka气候冷干,湖泊萎缩;22~10 ka气候好转,湖泊水位上升;全新世气候温和适度,湖泊水位略有降低"的特征.区域对比分析表明,末次冰期以来宁晋泊地区与延庆盆地等地的气候变化基本一致,具有冰期-间冰期旋回特征,说明其主要受太阳辐射的控制.      

面对全球迅速变暖及其后果预测的第四纪研究动向

未来50—100年全球可能迅速变暖。围绕这一问题,第四纪研究出现了一些新动向:第四纪地质时期里是否出现过快速变暖阶段?在这阶段里生态环境怎样变化?有机界对气候快速变化的响应程度如何?在地质时期的高温阶段里生物界的景况怎样?等等,以期借鉴过去预测未来。不过,这里也存在这样一个问题,即“在多大程度上‘过去’是预测未来的钥匙?”     

西峰和西安黄土中盐碱化古土壤气候意义的初步探讨

对西峰和西安黄土剖面中古土壤的研究揭示出,作为重要气候地层标志的S₄和S₅古土壤竟有盐化和碱化现象。盐碱化特性直接关系到如何认识这些古土壤的气候意义。土壤化学、微形态及粘土矿物分析表明,上述古土壤以草原土特征为主,并在气候最宜期发育了森林植被。盐碱化特性并非产生于土壤被埋藏以后,而是古土壤发育末期的产物。该时期大气粉尘堆积似乎是可溶盐的来源。     

Sea Level Rise and Its Risk Management

Sea level rise is among the most severe societal consequences of anthropogenic climate change. Significant advance has been achieved in recent years in the study of future sea level rise and its risk management practice: ①Sea level rise is considered as a kind of hazard,its future plausible scenarios and their probabilities are necessary to be predicted and estimated,and the upper limit with very low probability and high consequences should be emphasized. For this purpose,a complete probability distribution framework has been developed to predict the scenarios and probabilities of future sea level rise with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) in recent years. ② For a high emissions scenario,it was found that Antarctic Ice Sheet might make a contribution to Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) rise as high as 78150 cm (mean value 114 cm) by 2100. For the same scenario,the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report gave an Antarctic contribution of only -8+14 cm (mean value 4 cm). ③ Recent studies recommended a revised worst-case (Extreme) GMSL rise scenario of 2.5 m from previous 2.0 m by 2100. It is recognized that GMSL rise will not stop at 2100; rather,it will continue to rise for centuries afterwards,but the degree of uncertainty related to sea level rise will increase. ④ Approaches of combining the upper-bound scenario and a central estimate or mid-range scenario, Adaptation Pathways and robust decision-making are developed to provide a set of long-term planning envelope. These decision-making methods are used widely in coastal risk management related to future sea level rise. Sea level rise and its risk management need to enhance monitoring,analysis and simulation to predict the global,regional and local seal level rise scenarios and the probabilities with different time scales,reduce the estimate uncertainty, assess its upper limits, and enhance decision methods and their application under deep uncertain, in order to meet the needs of climate change adaptation planning,decision-making and long-term risk management in coastal regions.     

2.5Ma 以来古气候变化的混沌吸引子

利用2.5Ma以来经过时标调谐的宝鸡黄土剖面的粒度比值曲线,等时距(1000a)地重构了具2500个样本容量的时间序列。作者在分析此时间序列所记录的古气候变化的混沌特征后发现:2.5Ma以来的古气候是具有有限个自由度的复杂的混沌系统,吸引子关联维数为3.8,饱和嵌入维数为11,它的以最大Lyapunov指数和二阶Renyi熵表征的可预报时效(误差增大一倍所需时间)分别为0.66—0.76Ma和6600—7100a。已有的研究证明该剖面古气候时间序列的大部分时间区间受地球轨道参数的驱动,表明2.5Ma以来的古气候是一种混沌的与周期性的混合式振荡的动力系统。     

北京延庆古湖正构烷烃分布特征及古气候意义

为了更好地了解华北平原核心区延庆盆地古气候演化,利用气相色谱仪对北京延庆盆地阜高营剖面湖相沉积物中的正构烷烃进行了检测.结果表明其正构烷烃含量丰富且连续,碳数分布范围为C₁₆~C₃₃,高碳数奇碳优势明显,中链和短链烷烃均无奇偶优势,多以C₂₉或C₃₁为主峰的单峰分布为主,同时存在少量低碳数和高碳数并存的双峰型.延庆古湖有机质以陆生植物为主,包含少量的菌藻类和水生植物.综合ESR年代序列、有机碳同位素（δ13C_org）、长链正构烷烃平均链长（average chain length,ACL）碳优势指数（carbon preference index,CPI）和正构烷烃Paq参数,将延庆盆地晚更新世中期以来的环境演变划分为:56.8~45.6 ka,气候暖湿,湖泊发育良好,湖面较高;45.6~31.5 ka,气候温湿,湖泊发育缓慢,水位略有下降;31.5~20.0 ka,气候冷干,湖泊水位严重下降;20.0~13.4 ka,气候较为干冷,有转暖趋势;13.4~9.2 ka,气候转暖,湖泊有所发育,但水位较低;9.2 ka至今,气候变干,湖泊萎缩.延庆古湖沉积物中正构烷烃参数的变化与古里雅冰心、李家塬黄土、深海氧同位素反映的气候变化较为一致,呈现冰期-间冰期旋回,且受控于同纬度太阳辐射量的变化.      

Climatic signals in the Holocene carbonate sedimentary record of Namshi-Nur lake,West Baikal region

A new high-resolution Holocene climate record of the Western Baikal region from the evaporite sediments of one of the small saline lakes with the carbonate type of sedimentation are obtained on the basis of detailed mineralogical and crystallochemical studies of chemogenic carbonates. All carbonate phases occurring in the sediment are identified by decomposition of complex XRD-profiles of carbonates into individual peaks using the Pearson VII function, and the quantitative relationships between them are determined. Mg-calcites provide the major paleoclimatic information. The carbonate record contains data on the stratigraphic distribution of Mg-calcites, in which the number and ratio between the phases of different magnesium contents are determined by the past values of the Mg/Ca ratio, salinity, and total alkalinity of lake water that vary according to climatic cycles and fluctuations of the lake level. The high potential of the approach proposed for paleoclimatic reconstructions is demonstrated.     

极地海洋钻探研究进展

南极和北极海域的深海钻探（DSDP）和大洋钻探（ODP）研究所取得的成就是举世瞩目的,为人类研究过去全球变化打开了新的视野。它们揭示了北大西洋高纬度海区新近纪的古海洋学和古气候的演化历史,发现了早更新世"41ka世界"千年尺度的气候波动,以及冰期表层水温与深层水的耦合颤动,说明冰期旋回中冰消期气候的不稳定性。检验了新近纪环南极洋流的形成历史,并揭示了南极新生代的气候变冷和冰盖的演变历史,以及证实了南大洋温度变化领先于全球冰量的变化。2004年北极罗蒙诺索脊的综合大洋钻探（IODP）将宣告科学探索时代的到来,其研究将重建北冰洋新生代环境变化和气候的演变历史,展示北冰洋在全球气候变化中的作用。     

陆相特殊沉积的研究方法及气候意义

陆相沉积形成于地圈与水圈、大气圈和生物圈的交界面上,比海相地层更有效地记录了地球表层环境的信息。通过对沉积岩中沉积物的粘土矿物、气候指数、氧同位素测温等研究,获得关于气候干湿冷暖的信息。基于对这些常用方法的研究,提取出一些陆地上的特殊沉积,如：陆相红层、沙漠沉积体系、蒸发岩、煤及油页岩等所包含的丰富气候信息。沙漠代表干旱炎热气候;陆相红层的出现反映高温氧化环境,其在干旱和潮湿的热带气候下都能形成;芒硝代表干冷的气候环境;石膏则代表干热,水体盐度高,蒸发作用强的气候条件;煤层/油页岩一般形成于温暖潮湿的气候环境。对特殊沉积的研究可以用来重建古气候和恢复大陆古环境。     

贵州安顺新民二叠系-三叠系界线剖面磁化率变化及古气候环境意义

贵州安顺新民二叠系-三叠系界线剖面磁化率测试结果表明,该剖面二叠系磁化率整体偏低（平均6.4×10-8 m3/kg）,界线之上磁化率快速增加并相对稳定在1.3×10-7 m3/kg附近,与华南其他二叠系-三叠系剖面磁化率变化趋势相同;与陆源孢粉丰度、TiO2曲线的同步变化趋势表明,新民剖面磁化率主要来自陆源物质。结合磁化率、地球化学指标的变化特征,将源区P-T之交古气候划分为3个阶段:阶段Ⅰ（1 2层中部）为化学风化作用较强的温暖潮湿的气候条件;阶段Ⅱ（2层上部 P-T界线）整体处于较强化学风化作用条件下温热潮湿的气候环境,变化较为频繁,表现为温润/湿热交替;阶段Ⅲ（P-T界线之上）物理风化加强,化学风化明显减弱,经短暂“过渡段”,气候总体转变为干热的条件。     

We are not all the same!: Comparative climate change vulnerabilities among fishers in Old Harbour Bay,Jamaica

There is a general consensus that Small Island Developing States are among the most vulnerable to experience climate injustices. Vulnerability studies of climate change effects on communities have often focused on differences between communities given these climate injustices. However, there is a need to also focus on vulnerability within communities, referred to here as comparative vulnerabilities. Climate justice therefore becomes even more important with more focused attention given to the nuances within groups that fall within the vulnerable category. This article examines comparative vulnerabilities for the fishing community in Jamaica. A survey of 241 fishers from Old Harbour Bay, the largest fishing village in Jamaica, was conducted to examine the level of vulnerability of different fishers to climate change. A vulnerability index was constructed for the community and then comparative vulnerabilities were determined based on socio-demographic characteristics. Overall for the sample 46.9% of respondents would be considered as experiencing a comparatively high level of vulnerability to climate change. Climate change vulnerability was influenced by a number of socio-demographic variables with unique profiles emerging for groups that can be ranked as low, moderate, and high vulnerability. The paper therefore argues that within vulnerable populations there are comparative vulnerabilities based on economic factors and social capital, which must be taken into consideration for adaptation strategies to be implemented. Given these comparative vulnerabilities a more targeted approach to coping and adaptation strategies can then be taken. This will assist in building resilience of these communities that must now adjust to a new normal with climate change effects currently occurring.     

苏北淮安盐盆杨槐区块浦二段盐韵律特征及其古气候意义

盐湖沉积因具有成盐多期性和连续完整性的特点,是恢复成盐期古环境的重要研究对象,形成的不同级次盐韵律记录了不同尺度周期下古气候的干湿变化。上白垩统浦口组是淮安盐盆的主要含盐层系,对含盐层段盐韵律的研究有助于恢复该地区成盐期的古气候特征。在对资料井A1井取心段岩心精细观察和岩样矿物成分分析的基础上,分析资料井岩性的垂向变化,对浦口组盐韵律特征进行识别并划分。根据盐韵律对古气候的指示作用研究成盐期区块短尺度气候周期下的古气候变化。将淮安盐盆杨槐区块浦口组划分出Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ、Ⅳ、Ⅴ级韵律,识别出完整的盐韵律组合,即泥岩—钙芒硝质盐岩—盐岩—钙芒硝质盐岩。含盐段中广泛发育暖温相矿物钙芒硝,指示气候特征为炎热的暖旱型。在Ⅳ级韵律尺度下建立了气候干湿性变化曲线,表明区块气候干湿性波动频繁,但仍以干旱为主,韵律厚度大致反映了气候波动频率大小。     

白垩纪地球表层系统重大地质事件与温室气候变化研究

国家重点基础研究发展计划（973）项目“白垩纪地球表层系统重大地质事件与温室气候变化”，将以白垩纪与碳循环相关的重大地质事件和温室气候变化的关系为主线，以大洋缺氧事件—富氧作用转变过程和机制研究为突破口，进行海陆相整合研究，重点追溯东特提斯洋和我国大陆地球表层系统重大地质事件的记录，探讨这些事件与碳循环、快速气候变化的正/负反馈机制。项目将充分利用中国大陆发育完好的白垩纪海相、陆相地层及古生物记录，通过松辽盆地白垩系科学钻探全岩芯取样和多学科综合研究的途径，着眼于厘定反映地质事件和气候变化的层位及标志和时间格架，解决高分辨率海、陆相沉积事件的精确对比，分析地层记录中气候标志和古生物类群的地理分布，集中研究陆地和海洋环境对同一事件的响应机制，重溯白垩纪地球表层系统重大地质事件过程及成因，探究陆相烃源岩大规模形成、陆地生物群更替与温室气候变化和碳循环之间的正/负反馈关系和机制等科学问题，为预测全球长时间尺度上的气候变化趋势提供科学依据。     

Depletion risk assessment of the Nossana Spring (Bergamo, Italy) based on the stochastic modeling of recharge

A hydrogeological study of the Nossana Spring (Val Seriana, Bergamo, Italy) is presented with the aim of assessing the spring’s depletion risk. In the last few years, the discharge of the Nossana Spring showed a decreasing trend, similar to the trend of many other springs in the Prealpine Region. The study was carried out using a groundwater flow model to simulate the depletion curve of the spring in different recharge conditions. The simulations have shown that the depletion curve of the Nossana Spring depends on the recharge during the previous season. As a result, a negative exponential relation giving the spring depletion curve as a function of the recharge was obtained. This relation was also used to statistically calculate the actual probability of the occurrence of a deficiency in water resources, which for the present day is equal to 2%. Finally, the effect of climate change was considered, showing in the next 100 years a flat decline of about 40% in the average spring discharge and a considerable shortening of the critical length (the time to reach the critical discharge at which supply problems occur) in the dry season, which will be halved by the end of the century.     

Prevailing anoxia in the Kungurian (Permian) of South China: Possible response to divergent climate trends between the tropics and Gondwana

The Kungurian ocean-climate system has received little attention, but a new compilation of geochemical and paleoclimatic proxies suggest more complex climate dynamics during the Late Paleozoic icehouse–greenhouse transition than previously considered. Here, integrated carbon isotope stratigraphical, sedimentological, and geochemical data across two Early–Middle Permian successions in the Youjiang Basin, South China, is presented. These proxies indicate widespread anoxia below or near the water-sediment interface in South China during the Kungurian. High primary productivity, high sedimentation rate, and a relative sea-level rise are here proposed as being responsible for this process in the late Kungurian, but cannot account for the remaining anoxia at cycle boundaries. We put forward a hypothesis that divergent climate trends between the tropics and Gondwana might have played an important role in ocean stagnation and prevailing O₂-deficient conditions in and probably outside South China during the Kungurian. The termination of anoxia in this region during the latest Kungurian is attributed to an intensification of oceanic circulation, a rise in atmospheric pO₂ concentrations, a sea-level drop, depressed primary productivity, and low sedimentation rates. This study calls for further high-resolution sedimentological and geochemical investigations on the paleotropics outside South China, in order to elucidate the icehouse-greenhouse transition at the global scale.     

Paleoclimatic Changes During the Last 2.5 Ma Recorded in the Kathmandu Basin, Central Nepal Himalayas

PALEOCLIMATIC CHANGES DURING THE LAST 2.5Ma RECORDED IN THE KATHMANDU BASIN, CENTRAL NEPAL HIMALAYAS     

云南宣威4.6万年以来洞穴石笋古气候变化记录

石笋是高分辨地记录古气候环境变化的主要信息载体之一。本文通过对宣威下水龙洞 1号石笋进行α能谱铀系测年及碳、氧同位素分析,获得了距今 46.1ka至 2.75ka高分辨率的古气候演变信息。其年龄与δ18O值的记录在纵向上的变化具有明显的韵律性特征,可与深海岩芯V2 8～ 2 3 8同位素记录所揭示的第 3阶段、2阶段和 1阶段进行对比。反映 46.1ka以来宣威地区的气候波动与全球的气候变化具有明显的一致性。但是,区内是气候变化的敏感区,是东亚季风与印度洋季风交互作用的特殊区域,存在有明显的地区性气候变化特征,在整个末次冰期时段 (4 6.1～8.1ka)气候总体偏温暖,10.2 5ka为新仙女木冷事件的最冷终止点。在全新世大暖期时段的 7.1～ 3.7ka间显示气候温暖湿润,而在 3.7～ 2.75ka间伴随太阳辐射和印度洋西南季风强度的减弱,气候有明显的降温趋势。此外,石笋的碳、氧同位素显示的气候冷暖变化是,主沉积旋回以万年级、千年级和百年级为周期性变化;亚旋回以千年级和百年级为周期性变化。     

The paleoclimatic interpretation of clay minerals in sediments — a review

The application of paleoclimatic interpretation to clay minerals from continental and marine sediments is reviewed and the advantages of this method are indicated. Levels relatively rich in chlorite, illite, palygorskite and quartz are interpreted as corresponding to relatively dry periods, while more humid periods lead to more intensive weathering and consequently to the dominance of clay minerals more advanced in the relative stability scale, such as kaolinite. Smectite is taken to indicate a climate with contrasting seasons and a pronounced dry season.Using this and similar schemes, the paleoclimates of areas adjoining the Mediterranean Basin, North Sea, North Atlantic, Southern Arctic, Equatorial and North-West Pacific, and North Phillipine Sea are reconstructed.Clay minerals in sediments, particularly marine sediments, can be useful indicators of paleoclimatic conditions. While they do not produce direct indications of climatic parameters, they provide integrated records of overall climatic impact. Occasionally, they may be superior to the more conventional paleoclimatic methods, such as pollen or oxygen-isotope analysis.The limitations imposed on the paleoclimatic interpretation of clay minerals in sediments are discussed on the basis of examples. The distinction between authigenic and detrital clay minerals is shown to be problematic, particularly with regard to smectite. The relationship between climatic parameters and clay-mineral formation is complicated by the intervention of extra-climatic factors such as topography, geomorphology, lithology and time. Post-depositional diagenetic changes may not be recognized. Differentiation during transport, due to size sorting or differential flocculation may overlap climate-induced differentiation. The association of clay-mineral assemblages with specific source areas presents difficulties due to dispersal pathways that are affected by type of transport agency, i.e., water, ice or wind. Transport agencies are not constant with time. By an interdisciplinary approach, with the paleoclimatic information derived from clay minerals being correlated with that obtained from the analysis of microfossils and oxygen isotope data, many of these limitations can be overcome.