Numerical simulation of Eurasian teleconnection pattern in atmospheric circulation during the Northern Hemisphere winter

In this paper, the anomaly of disturbance height field over Northern Hemisphere due to SST anomaly in the tropical Atlantic Ocean is simulated by using the general circulation model of IAP. A quasi-geostrophic, 34-level spherical coordinate model is also used to compute the distribution of atmospheric circulation anomaly when there is an anomaly of heat source over the tropical Atlantic. The computed results show that, owing to the heat source anomaly over the tropical Atlantic, the EU-pattern anomaly in the winter circulation may be caused. Namely, a ridge will be enhanced over the northwest Europe, a trough will be deepened over Siberia, but a positive anomaly of disturbance height field will be formed over the northeast China, Japan and other areas of East Asia. Moreover, the numerically simulated results show that the above-mentioned EU-pattern anomalies of circulation are due to the propagations of planetary wave train. About 15 days after an anomaly of the heat source over the tropical Atlantic is injected, the EU-pattern anomaly of atmospheric circulation is formed. This is in good agreement with the results analysed theoretically. On the leave from Geophysical Institute, Faculty of Science in Tokyo University, Japan.     

A link between winter precipitation in Europe and the Arctic Sea ice,sea surface temperature,and atmospheric circulation

The spatial and temporal pattern of the link between the winter precipitation variability and variations in the North Atlantic sea surface temperature, the Arctic sea ice concentration, and 500 hPa geopotential height in the Northern Hemisphere is analyzed for the period of 1952-2012. The analysis reveals two principal modes of covariability in the analyzed characteristics. The first mode which explains the most part of covariability, is related to the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation. The second mode indicates the significant contribution of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation associated with winter precipitation anomalies of the same sign in Europe with the maxima on the East European Plain and in the Balkan region during the positive phase of AMO.     

冬季北半球风暴轴的协同变化及其与大气环流的相互作用

基于1971—2016年NCEP/NCAR的逐日、逐月再分析资料,研究冬季北半球西伯利亚风暴轴(Siberian Storm Track,SIST)、北太平洋风暴轴(Pacific Storm Track,PST)和北大西洋风暴轴(Atlantic Storm Track,AST)的协同变化特征及其与大气环流的关系。结果表明:(1)三大风暴轴不仅各自的位置与强度变化存在显著相关性,风暴轴之间也存在一定的协同变化且年代际尺度上比年际尺度上更紧密。年际尺度上,SIST与AST的经度变化呈显著负相关,而PST和AST的协同性较差;年代际尺度上,SIST与PST的经、纬度变化均呈弱的负相关,SIST与AST的经度和强度变化均呈显著正相关,PST与AST的经、纬度变化均呈显著负相关。(2)由联合EOF分析得到北半球风暴轴的协同变化时空特征:在年际尺度上,第一模态主要表现为SIST偏弱(强),PST主体偏弱(强)、东南偏强(弱),AST略偏北(南)偏强(弱)但不显著的协同变化。PC1为正位相时,对应的大气环流异常为:500 hPa高度场上为太平洋北美(Pacific North America,PNA)型和欧亚(Eurasian,EU)型的正位相,东亚急流偏强且偏南;第二模态主要表现为SIST偏强(弱)且偏东(西),PST中东部偏南(北)、西部强度偏强(弱),AST偏强(弱)的协同变化。PC2为正位相时,对应的大气环流异常为:500 hPa高度场上为PNA型和大西洋东部(East Atlantic,EA)型的正位相,北美急流减弱;在年代际尺度上,第一模态主要表现为SIST偏西(东)且偏弱(强),PST偏东(西)且偏弱(强),AST偏西(东)且偏弱(强)的协同变化。PC1为正位相时,对应的大气环流异常为:500 hPa高度场上为西大西洋(West Atlantic,WA)型和EU型的正位相。第二模态主要表现为SIST偏强(弱)且偏北(南),PST偏南(北)且偏弱(强),AST北抬(南压)的协同变化。PC2为正位相时,对应的大气环流异常为:500 hPa高度场上为EU型和WA型的正位相,东亚急流强度加强且偏南,北美急流强度减弱。     

Fast responses of Northern Hemisphere winter daily circulation to anthropogenic aerosols

Anthropogenic aerosols (AA) have significantly caused anomalous winter mean atmospheric circulation over the Northern Hemisphere, but the main daily patterns of winter large-scale circulation change are not well understood. Here a self-organizing map analysis is applied to identify the leading patterns in AA-induced winter daily geopotential height (Z) anomaly fields simulated by three atmospheric general circulation models, with a focus on fast adjustments. Two winter daily circulation response patterns with a synoptic time scale are found: one pattern shows concurring Z anomalies over North America and North Asia with the same sign and the Bering Sea seeing the opposite, resembling the Asia–Bering–North American teleconnection; while the other is the Arctic Oscillation-like pattern with similar Z anomalies over North Pacific and North Atlantic and the opposite over the Arctic region. The AA-induced anomalous precipitation over the tropics and anomalous synoptic eddy activities over the extratropical oceans concur to support and maintain these circulation anomaly patterns. The winter-mean climate responses to AA can be understood as a result of these daily anomaly patterns, especially over the higher latitudes. Specifically, the associated changes in surface air temperature (SAT) over the mid-high latitudes are caused by the AA-driven meridional movements of polar (cold and dry) airmass and midlatitude (warm and moist) airmass in the regions, mainly through the relevant surface downward longwave radiation. This study highlights the role of AA in altering daily weather patterns, which is not sufficiently captured by seasonal mean responses.     

冬季北半球大气对秋冬季巴伦支海海冰异常的敏感性研究

基于ERA-Interim再分析资料,借助大气模式CAM4,分析了北半球冬季不同月份的平均大气对巴伦支海不同振幅及不同季节海冰扰动的敏感性,并考察了中高纬度典型大气模态的分布变化情况.结果表明,冬季巴伦支海海冰的减少,会导致湍流热通量异常向上、局地异常变暖及水汽含量的异常升高,且相关异常的强度和范围随着海冰减少幅度的减...     

Notes on extended–range atmospheric prediction in the Northern Hemisphere winter

We examined the characteristic feature and predictability of low frequency variability (LFV) of the atmosphere in the Northern Hemisphere winter (January and February) by using the empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of the geopotential height at 500 hPa. In the discussion, we used the EOFs for geostrophic zonal wind (Uznl) and the height deviation from the zonal mean (Zeddy). The set of EOFs for Uznl and Zeddy was denoted as Uznl-1. Uznl-2, …, Zeddy-1, Zeddy-2…, respectively. We used the data samples of 396 pentads derived from 33 years of NMC, ECMWF and JMA analyses, from January 1963 to 1995. From the calculated scores for Uznl-1, Uznl-2, Zeddy-1, Zeddy-2 and so on we found that Uznl-1 and Zeddy-1 were statistically stable and their scores were more persistent than those of the other EOFs. A close relationship existed between the scores of Uznl-1 and those of Zeddy-1 30-day forecast experiments were carried out with the medium resolution version of JMA global spectral model for 20 cases in January and February for the period of 1984-1992. Results showed that Zeddy-1 was more predicta?ble than the other EOFs for Zeddy Considering these results, we argued that prediction of the Zeddy-1 was to be one of the main target of extended range forecasting     

Amplified winter Arctic tropospheric warming and its link to atmospheric circulation changes

本文讨论了20世纪以来冬季极地巴伦支-喀拉海(BKS)区域对流层增暖放大的物理原因。提出了大气环流结构的改变对极地深对流层增暖有重要影响。通过合成阻塞,排除阻塞影响等分析发现北极涛动负位相产生的负的北大西洋涛动与一起产生的西退的乌拉尔阻塞不利于BKS区域增暖,因为这种环流配置下水汽不能持续大量的进入BKS区域;相反,北大西洋涛动正位相与一起产生的准定常且持续时间长的乌拉尔阻塞,给BKS地区带来持续大量暖而湿的水汽通过增加感热能有利于极地对流层增暖放大。     

影响中国夏季降水的前冬北半球中高纬大气环流年际变异主模态

本文利用观测和再分析资料,通过奇异值分解(Singular Value Decomposition, SVD)分析,发现北极涛动(Arctic Oscillation, AO)是显著影响中国夏季降水年际异常的前冬中高纬大气环流变异的主模态。AO在冬季发展成熟,在春季衰亡,在夏季发生位相反转。AO会导致华北、东北、长江中下游和华南夏季降水异常呈现三极型分布。伴随正位相的AO,在黄海至日本海上空的异常低压伴随的东北风异常引起华北和东北水汽通量异常辐散及降水减少,而西北太平洋的异常高压不仅增强其北侧的西南风水汽输送,和北部异常低压共同作用导致长江中下游水汽通量异常辐合及降水增加,而且使得华南水汽通量异常辐散,降水减少。因此,本文发现的前冬AO模态与我国夏季三极型异常降水分布的关系可为我国夏季旱涝预测提供一个重要的中高纬前期因子。     

华西秋雨起止与秋冬季节大气环流转换

根据1961—2010年平均的逐候NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、1979—2008年平均的逐候CMAP降水资料以及1961—2010年逐候平均的中国553个台站降水资料,讨论了华西秋雨起止日期与秋冬季大气环流转换特征的关系。结果表明,华西地区降水年变化表现为明显的夏、秋双峰特征,8月4—8日(第44候)为双峰间的低谷,10月8—12日(第57候)以后降水降至年平均以下。由此,将华西秋雨建立和结束日期分别确定为8月9—13日(第45候)和10月8—12日(第57候)。华西秋雨的建立对应于东亚夏季风开始向冬季风转变,其标志性环流调整特征是江南地区的西南风转为东南风。东亚经向海平面气压梯度在8月9—13日(第45候)由南高北低转为南低北高,造成850 hPa江南地区的西南风转为东南风,该东南风与来自孟加拉湾的热带西南季风交汇于华西地区,形成风向和水汽的辐合,使得华西地区的降水在夏峰之后再次增强,华西秋雨由此建立。华西秋雨的结束则对应于孟加拉湾热带西南季风结束和东亚冬季风完全建立,其标志性环流调整特征是孟加拉湾地区的西南风转为东北风。随着东亚纬向海平面气压梯度由北向南依次发生东高西低向东低西高的转变,东亚冬季风也逐步向南推进,9月8—12日(第51候)东北冬季风到达江南地区,10月8—12日(第57候)进一步推进到南海地区,此时来自孟加拉湾的热带西南季风消失,造成华西地区完全受大陆冷高压控制,东亚季风经圈环流也转为冬季型哈得来环流,东亚冬季风完全建立,华西秋雨也随之结束。因此,华西秋雨起止可能与东亚夏季风、南亚夏季风向冬季风的转变时间不同步有关,东亚季风与南亚季风的共同作用使得华西秋雨成为亚洲夏季风在中国大陆上的最后一个雨季。     

秋季北极海冰对中国冬季气温的影响

利用海冰资料、中国地面气候资料、环流特征量资料及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,研究了秋季北极海冰变化对中国冬季平均气温、日气温变率以及异常低温天气的影响。分析结果表明,秋季北极海冰异常偏多年中国冬季常为暖冬;异常偏少年中国冬季常为冷冬,且异常低温天气出现频率更高,常发生低温灾害事件。秋季北极海冰通过影响后期的北半球极涡、东亚冬季风和西伯利亚高压进而影响中国冬季的平均气温,且通过影响冬季异常强西伯利亚高压的出现频次,影响中国冬季异常低温天气的发生频次。合成分析结果表明,秋季北极海冰异常偏少年的冬季,中国以北亚欧大陆高纬度的偏北风较强,且中国及其以北的中高纬度地区空气异常偏冷,导致极地和高纬度的冷空气易向南爆发,造成中国冬季气温偏低,异常低温天气频发。     

重庆秋季降水特征及大气环流异常分析

利用重庆1960-2006年秋季降水量计算了重庆地区秋季区域降水指数,采用相关与合成分析、线性趋势估计、Mann-Kendall突变检测方法和小波分析等统计诊断方法分析了重庆秋季降水变化特征及其与同期和前期大气环流的关系.结果表明:重庆秋季降水偏多、偏少年同期及前期中高纬度地区高度场距平都有明显的差异.前期冬季北太平洋中纬度地区对流层高度距平为正,加拿大西部对流层高度距平为负时,秋季重庆降水异常偏多,具有一定的预测意义.在此基础上定义了影响重庆地区秋季降水的前期因子.     

欧亚土壤湿度异常对北半球大气环流的显著影响

用44 a ERA40再分析资料的土壤湿度和大气环流变量场, 研究持续性的欧亚大陆土壤湿度异常对后期北半球大尺度大气环流的反馈作用。首先,运用经验正交函数分解去除ENSO遥相关及趋势影响后,分析了欧亚大陆中高纬度土壤湿度变率主要模态的季节变化特征,及相对应主分量时间序列显示的土壤湿度异常的衰减时间,结果表明土壤湿度异常的主要模态在全年都表现出很好的连续性。其次,对不同季节的连续3个月的月平均土壤湿度和500 hPa高度场进行滞后最大协方差分析,研究欧亚地区中高纬度土壤湿度异常与北半球大气环流异常之间的线性耦合。第一最大协方差模态的结果表明:全年的主导信号是大气强迫土壤湿度的变化,但在冬季和夏季,大气中类似于负位相北极涛动的环流型与之前月份(最长达4个月)土壤湿度的持续变化显著相关。最后,基于土壤湿度变率中心的回归分析也证实了秋季和春季欧亚土壤湿度,特别是北非副热带,欧亚内陆和西伯利亚地区的土壤湿度异常,分别与其后的冬季和夏季的大气环流显著相关。欧亚大陆土壤湿度异常超前大气环流的信号,将有助于改善冬季和夏季北半球季节气候预报能力。     

北方涛动同北半球温带大气环流的遥相关(一)——基本结构

本文利用1951—1980年逐季的平均值资料(共120个季)讨论了北方涛动和与其相联系的北太平洋海温与北半球海平面气压场、500hPa位势高度场遥相关的基本结构,并与南方涛动和赤道东太平洋海温的结果进行了对比分析.发现北太平洋Namias海区和加利福尼亚海流区海温的变化与北方涛动具有很密切的联系;北方涛动和这两个海区的海温同北半球中高纬度大气环流特别是PNA型和NAO型环流异常存在明显的遥相关关系;南方涛动和赤道太平洋海温同WP型或NPO型环流异常关系比较密切,而与PNA型和NAO型的关系不如北方涛动和Namias海区及加利福尼亚海流区海温的显著.     

基本气流在ENSO对北半球冬季大气环流影响中的作用

本文从观测事实、理论与数值试验来研究基本气流在ENSO事件对北半球冬季大气环流影响中的作用。通过观测资料的分析,发现1972/1973年冬ENSO现象发生时的基本气流与一般ENSO现象发生年份的基本气流不同,这使得该年冬季ENSO现象所引起的北半球大气环流异常与一般ENSO现象所引起的环流异常型不同。一般ENSO现象所引起的北半球大气环流异常型是PNA型,而1972/1973年冬北半球环流异常型是非PNA型,我国东北地区出现暖冬,冷空气活动弱。     

北方涛动同北半球温带大气环流的遥相关(二)——季节变化

在以前工作的基础上,本文进一步分析了各个季节北方涛动和与其相联系的北太平洋海温同北半球温带大气环流遥相关的特征,并与南方涛动和赤道太平洋海温的结果进行了比较,发现它们同北半球温带大气环流的遥相关,不仅具有很强的地区性,而且具有明显的季节变化。 冬季,北方涛动和北太平洋海温与PNA型相关非常明显,且比南方涛动和赤道太平洋海温的更密切。除PNA型外,北方涛动还同500hPa高度的亚洲-北美(ANA)流型有联系。 夏季,PNA遥相关型的表现仍然非常清楚,但位置较冬季偏酉和偏北,并在北美西海岸具有特殊的分叉现象。     

Response of Northern Hemisphere storm tracks to Indian-western Pacific Ocean warming in atmospheric general circulation models

With 40 years integration output of two atmospheric general circulation models (GAMIL/IAP and HadAM3/UKMO) forced with identical prescribed seasonally-varying sea surface temperature, this study examines the effect of the observed Indian-western Pacific Ocean (IWP) warming on the Northern Hemisphere storm tracks. Both models indicate that the observed IWP warming tends to cause both the North Pacific storm track (NPST) and the North Atlantic storm track (NAST) to move northward. Such a consistent effect on the two storm tracks is closely associated with the changes in the low-level atmospheric baroclinicity, high-level jet stream and upper-level geopotential height. The IWP warming can excite a wavelike circum-global teleconnection in the geopotential height that gives rise to an anticyclonic anomaly over the midlatitude North Pacific and a positive-phase NAO anomaly over the North Atlantic. These geopotential height anomalies tend to enhance upper-level zonal westerly winds north of the climatological jet axes and increase low-level baroclinicity and eddy growth rates, thus favoring transient eddy more active north of the climatological storm track axes, responsible for the northward shift of the both storm tracks. The IWP warming-induced northward shift of the NAST is quite similar to the observed, suggesting that the IWP warming can be one of the key factors to cause decadal northward shift of the NAST since the 1980s. However, the IWP warming-induced northward shift of the NPST is completely opposite to the observed, implying that the observed southward shift of the NPST since the 1980s would be primarily attributed to other reasons, although the IWP warming can have a cancelling effect against those reasons.     

The relationship between the Spring Asian Atmospheric circulation and the previous winter Northern Hemisphere annular mode

Summary By using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the Northern Hemisphere annular mode index (NAMI), China dust storm frequency data and China’s 160-station monthly precipitation data, the relationship between the previous winter (December–February) Northern Hemisphere annular mode (NAM) and the following spring (March–May) Asian atmospheric circulation is examined statistically in this study. Results demonstrate that the relationship between the spring Asian atmospheric circulation and the previous winter NAM is more significant on decadal time scales than on interannual time scales. There are significant negative correlations between the previous winter NAM and the spring temperature in what is almost a troposphere over Northwest China. There is a significant positive correlation between the winter NAMI and following spring geopotential height field over the Mongolian Plateau and Middle Siberia (MPMS) at the upper level. The positive correlation coefficients center moves to the south with the level from high to low. At lower level the high correlation coefficients center is located over the North China. There is a significant negative correlation between the winter NAMI and the surface horizontal wind intensity in the following spring for Northwest China on decadal timescales. The results suggest that a strong NAM in winter is followed by a negative temperature anomaly and a positive anomaly of the spring 500 hPa geopotential height over the MPMS, while at the same time the spring anomaly of the southeast wind is experienced in the surface layer in Northwest China, implying that the intensity of the northwest wind tends to weaken, and vice versa. This circulation pattern can affect the change of the spring dust storm frequency in Northwest China on decadal time scales.     

7月不同形态南亚高压与北半球大气环流的关系

利用NCEP/NCAR月平均高度场和风场再分析资料,分析了1948—2013年7月南亚高压多中心特征及其与北半球大气环流的关系。结果表明:1)南亚高压存在1至5个中心不等,其中以双中心类和三中心类为主,占总样本数的82%,其次是单中心类,占总样本数的14%,四中心类和五中心类仅占总样本数的3%。2)根据高压中心个数、经向位置和环流特征,将不同类高压分成了不同型,其中单中心类分为Ⅰ1型和Ⅰ2型,分别占该类的44%和56%,双中心类分为Ⅱ1型、Ⅱ2型和Ⅱ3型,分别占该类的66.7%、18.5%和14.8%,三中心类仅考虑了Ⅲ1型,占该类的67%。3)Ⅰ1型高压中心在伊朗高原上空,Ⅰ2型高压中心在青藏高原上空,Ⅱ1型两高压中心分别在伊朗高原和青藏高原上空,Ⅱ2型两高压中心分别在伊朗高原和我国东部西太平洋上空,Ⅱ3型两高压中心分别在青藏高原和我国东部西太平洋上空,Ⅲ1型三个高压中心分别在伊朗高原、青藏高原和我国东部西太平洋上空。4)不同类型的高压中心所在地区高层位势高度场和对流层中上层温度场都表现为显著正异常,且不同区域温度场异常的维持机制不相同。